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  #41  
Old 13-01-2014, 13:53
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Jan. 13: Asian session

Asian shares rose. The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index gained 0.5%, Shanghai Composite moved up 0.4%. Japanese markets are closed for a holiday.

USD/JPY fell almost to 1-month minimum in the 103.30 area as dollar bulls were disappointed by weak US NFP data released on Friday. Traders started reassessing how quickly the Federal Reserve can scale back stimulus.

AUD/USD strengthened to $0.9045, extending the upside after the Friday’s post-NFP jump. Aussie’s strength extends the chances for a base formation with a low at $0.8820. Australia ANZ job advertisements contracted a little bit below the forecast (-0.7% vs. -0.9% expected), while home loans came in line with forecast (+1.1% m/m). NZD/USD has also strengthened, testing the $0.8330 resistance.

EUR/USD is at $1.3677. GBP/USD is just below $1.6500.
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  #42  
Old 13-01-2014, 13:58
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Key currency options (Jan. 13)

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3540, $1.3550, $1.3600, $1.3625;

GBP/USD: $1.6400;

USD/JPY: 102.50, 103.50, 104.00, 105.00, 106.00 (large);

EUR/GBP: 0.8270;

EUR/CHF: 1.2370.
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  #43  
Old 13-01-2014, 14:11
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CFTC: USD longs increased

Here are the essentials of the latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Jan. 10 by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for a week ended on Jan. 7.

According to the report, large speculators increased their net long USD positions from $17.5 billion on Dec. 31 to $21.1 billion on Jan. 7. This is the best level since Sep. 10 when the US dollar bullish bets equaled to $22.0 billion.



EUR/USD



GBP/USD



USD/JPY



AUD/USD



NZD/USD



USD/CAD



USD/CHF



Gold

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  #44  
Old 15-01-2014, 14:00
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Jan. 15: Asian session

Asian shares were mostly higher on Wednesday as the World Bank upgraded its outlook for the global economy. US dollar extended gains versus its counterparts due to surprising strength in US consumer spending. Japanese Nikkei bounced by 1.8% after suffering its sharpest daily drop in 5 months on Tuesday. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was little changed.

USD/JPY recovered to 104.40. AUD/USD slid to $0.8915. NZD/USD slipped to $0.8333.

EUR/USD fell to $1.3630. GBP/USD is trading at $1.6422.
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  #45  
Old 17-01-2014, 14:13
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Jan. 17: Asian session

Asian stocks swung between gains and losses before China reports economic data next week. Nikkei fell by 0.8% following Wall Street lower on the disappointing US corporate earnings, while exporters sagged as the weak-yen trend took a pause. MSCI Asia Pacific Index erased a 0.4% drop.

USD/JPY is trading at 104.33 after testing 104.92 yesterday. Japanese consumer confidence declined. AUD/USD is consolidating in a tight $0.8830/00 range after having hit a low of $0.8878 yesterday (lowest since August 2010). NZD/USD is the main loser of this Asian session, falling by more than 60 pips to $0.8285. Despite the recent NZD decline, the market remains generally long on the kiwi in expectations of RBNZ rate hike in the near future.

EUR/USD is in the $1.3625 area, down from yesterday’s high at $1.3649. GBP/USD is down to $1.6333, but above yesterday’s low at $1.6314.
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  #46  
Old 17-01-2014, 14:49
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FBS Forex Outlook 2014

FBS analytical team prepared a report on 2014 Forex market prospects. What currency pairs deserve traders’ attention in the coming year? Which economic and political events will influence the market? What to expect from the major central banks? Find the answers to these questions and many more in the FBS Forex Outlook 2014.

Contents:
* 2013: A year to remember
* 2014: Highlights
* Analysis by currency

DOWNLOAD REPORT

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  #47  
Old 27-01-2014, 14:24
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Jan. 27: Asian session

USD/JPY tested 7-week low at 101.75, but then recovered to 102.50. Demand for yen as a safe haven increased because of a selloff in emerging-market assets. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index of shares fell 1.2%, extending last week’s 2.3% slump. Investors are worried that troubles in EM could lead to financial crisis. Turkey suffers from political turmoil, while Argentina abandoned support of its peso on the open market. The expectations of the Fed’s policy tightening and tightening credit conditions in China also encourage fears about the EM economic slowdown.

Commodity currencies met buyers in the Asian trade. AUD/USD opened the week slightly above the Friday’s minimum of $0.8660 and strengthened to $0.8740. Australian markets were closed for a holiday. NZD/USD still didn’t close the morning a bearish gap, trading below $0.8225. Kiwi remains well-supported by the $0.8200 mark. On Sunday Forbes published an article saying China halts cash transfers. However, the PBOC statement clarified the issue: the move only covers some Internet transfers and those for small amounts and is due to regular system maintenance.

EUR/USD is trading in the $1.3680 area after it spiked to $1.3740 on Friday. GBP/USD tested $1.6472, but then returned to the levels above $1.6500.
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  #48  
Old 28-01-2014, 13:38
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Jan. 28: Asian session

Asian shares weakened to nearly 5-month lows on Tuesday on concerns about the emerging markets, but then managed to recover on some encouraging news from Turkey and China. Turkey’s central bank may raise interest rates at an extraordinary meeting today, while China’s largest lender said that investors in a troubled high-yield trust can recoup funds. Nikkei hit 2 1/2-month intraday low before recouping the losses to trade 0.2% above its previous close. MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares was little changed after dropping 3.7% over the previous 3 days.

USD/JPY is trading in the 102.60 area, below yesterday’s peak at 102.93. The greenback rose against yen before the Fed begins a 2-day meeting amid forecasts it will cut monthly asset purchases by $10 billion.

Commodity currencies are trading to the upside. AUD/USD extends growth for a second day in a row, but faced resistance at $0.8800. Australia NAB business confidence for December came at 6. The prior reading was revised up from 5 to 6. Business conditions index for December rose from -3 to a 2.5-year high of 4. NZD/USD strengthened to $0.8275 after forming a long-legged doji candle with a low at $0.8200 on Monday.

EUR/USD is trading in the $1.3670 area, below yesterday’s peak at $1.3717. GBP/USD rose above $1.6600.
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  #49  
Old 28-01-2014, 13:42
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Emerging markets: what’s the problem?

There were a lot of concerns about emerging markets during the recent days. Why there are problems in so many countries simultaneously? There are the following general reasons behind the depreciation: a contraction in Chinese manufacturing, concerns about the impact of the Fed’s stimulus tapering, a variety of more local problems, ranging from troubled economic institutions to political unrest.

Argentina

Argentinean peso survived the biggest depreciation 12 years. In lost 15% of its value last week when the central bank briefly stopped supporting the national currency. Earlier the central bank spent huge sums to slow down peso’s fall. These efforts reduced Argentina’s foreign-currency reserves to about $29 billion from around $43 billion a year ago. Inflation is believed to account for 30%. There’s a big gap between the official exchange rate (around 8 peso per USD) and the black market rate (more than 12 peso per USD). This gap reinforces expectations that peso will devalue even more.

Turkey

Turkish lira has lost about 16% against dollar since Dec. 17, when the arrest of the sons of 3 cabinet ministers exposed a corruption investigation which threatens Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan and his government’s standing. The nation’s central bank has persistently refused to raise interest rates to defend the currency. Erdogan was opposing the hike, because he wanted low rates to boost economic growth as elections approach. As a result, the central bank had to reduce its foreign currency reserves to give lira some support. Still, it’s clear that it doesn’t work and the regulator has an emergency meeting today. A rate hike’s widely expected.

Currencies likeSouth African rand, Russian ruble, Unraine hryvnia, Chilean peso continue their fall. Pimco thinks that once the risk aversion abates, people will start to differentiate again and currencies would recover. Others say the declines are sowing the seeds of problems for developing nations because weaker currencies would push up overseas debt payments for countries, damping the outlook for their economies.
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  #50  
Old 28-01-2014, 13:45
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Key currency options

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3590, $1.3670, $1.3680, $1.3700;

USD/JPY: 102.00, 102.40, 102.90, 103.00, 103.80, 104.00;

AUD/USD: $0.8700, $0.8875;

USD/CAD: 1.0940;

EUR/GBP: 0.8265;

EUR/JPY: 141.20;

AUD/JPY: 91.30.
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  #51  
Old 28-01-2014, 13:47
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China: the imminent debt crisis?

The risk of a credit crunch is hanging over China. The pace of the nation’s debt increase is extremely high. China’s local governments have public debt of $3 trillion. This week one of Chinese trusts has managed to avoid default, presumably, thanks to a bailout. Still, this raises many questions about the nation’s financial future. The nation’s extraordinary economic growth used to be a wonder and an example for others. However, it seems that this growth is now being built on the growing reliance on debt that will be difficult to repay. The existence of a huge shadow banking sector which, according to some estimates, equals 40% of GDP, makes the problem ever more serious.
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  #52  
Old 28-01-2014, 13:50
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Morgan Stanley: short on USD/JPY

USD/JPY extends the upside, breaking above the sell orders around 102.80. Will the buyers manage to push through the 103.00 mark or the bearish correction will deepen further?

Morgan Stanley expects the pair to move even lower. They opened a sell-limit USD/JPY order at 103.00, with a stop at 104.00 and a target at 100.60. "We expect JPY to regain support as broader risk appetite is tested. Signs of Chinese growth slowing are likely to impact Asia regional risk appetite in particular, which will be JPY-supportive, in our view", analysts clarify.

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  #53  
Old 28-01-2014, 14:03
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FX BAZOOKA: technicals (Jan. 28)

EUR/USD

EUR/USD remained between $1.3700 and $1.3650, 50% and 38.2% Fibo of the decline from $1.3890 to $1.3507. MAs remain horizontal, so do the lines Tenkan and Kijun. MACD is in the positive area, but below the signal line and declining. The desire of the bulls to move higher is confronted by the expectations of another $10B reduction in the Fed’s QE. The pair needs some additional drivers.

Resistance: $1.3700, $1.3750, $1.3800

Support: $1.3670, $1.3640, $1.3600


Chart. H4 EUR/USD

Upcoming events

EUR - All day - ECOFIN Meetings

USD - 13:30 GMT - Core Durable Goods Orders, Durable Goods Orders

USD - 14:00 GMT - S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI

USD - 15:00 GMT - CB Consumer Confidence
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  #54  
Old 28-01-2014, 14:05
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GBP/USD

GBP/USD extends growth for a second day in a row, breaking above $1.6600. The pair is moving towards the recent high of $1.6670. Cable remains supported by the January rising trend line ($1.6515 as of writing). General market sentiment is bullish. MACD histogram rose above the signal line. RSI is close to the overbought zone. Watch the UK Q4 GDP today – the forecast is a little bit to the downside.

Support: $1.6600/6590, $1.6565, $1.6470

Resistance: $1.6670, $1.6740


Chart. H4 GBP/USD

Upcoming events:

GBP – 9:30 GMT – Preliminary Q4 GDP, Index of Services
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  #55  
Old 28-01-2014, 14:19
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USD/JPY

USD/JPY keeps consolidating below 102.80. The pair needs to rise above 102.85 to extend the recovery. The negative MACD crossed the signal line to the upside (bullish signal). On the daily chart the pair is supported by the bullish Cloud.

Support: 102.40, 102.00, 101.75, 101.60

Resistance: 102.85, 103.00, 103.60


Chart. H4 USD/JPY
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  #56  
Old 28-01-2014, 14:26
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USD/CHF

The pair still looks bearish as long as it holds below $0.8985. We expect the greenback to extend the downside. The negative MACD crossed the signal line to the upside (bullish signal). Ichimoku Cloud remains bearish. 55-period MA crossed the 100-period MA to the downside.

Support: $0.8900, $0.8800

Resistance: $0.8985,$0.9030, $0.9090, $0.9130


Chart. H4 USD/CHF
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  #57  
Old 28-01-2014, 14:30
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AUD/USD

AUD/USD recovered to the 55-period MA just below $0.8800. Aussie was supported by higher NAB business confidence. The pair’s trying to rise above the horizontal Kijun-sen. MAs are sloping down. All in all, the pair was quite oversold after hitting a multiyear low last week and it may correct a bit more within the general downtrend. The Ichimoku Cloud represents a hurdle at $0.8825. The upper Bollinger band lies here as well.

Resistance: $0.8800, $0.8825, $0.8865, $0.8890

Support: $0.8758, $0.8740, $0.8700, $0.8663


Chart. H4 AUD/USD

Upcoming events

USD - 13:30 GMT - Core Durable Goods Orders, Durable Goods Orders

USD - 14:00 GMT - S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI

USD - 15:00 GMT - CB Consumer Confidence

AUD - 23:30 GMT - MI Leading Index
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  #58  
Old 28-01-2014, 14:59
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USD/CAD

USD/CAD is consolidating within its medium-term upward trend. Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen are horizontal and act as support. USD/CAD is trading around the middle Bollinger band. The pair has made a lower high at 1.1118 and the bulls have lost momentum. They might need a day to gather strength.

Resistance: 1.1118, 1.1175, 1.1230

Support: 1.1050, 1.0100, 1.0950


Chart. H4 USD/CAD

Upcoming events

USD - 13:30 GMT - Core Durable Goods Orders, Durable Goods Orders

USD - 14:00 GMT - S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI

USD - 15:00 GMT - CB Consumer Confidence
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  #59  
Old 29-01-2014, 14:08
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Jan. 29: Asian session

Asian markets rallied on Wednesday after Turkey raised the benchmark interest rate from 7.75% to 12%, stirring hopes the drastic action would short-circuit a vicious cycle of selling in emerging markets and revive risk appetite generally. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose by 1.2% after three sessions of falls.

Nikkei rose by 2.2%. USD/JPY recovered to 103.44. Commodity currencies strengthened on the Turkish rate hike. AUD/USD extends the recovery for a third day in a row. Aussie rose to $0.8830 before retracing in the late Asia. NZD/USD also remains supported, but was unable to overcome the $.8300 handle for now. Investors wait for the RBNZ meeting at 20:00 GMT (an hour after the FOMC announcement). There is a market expectation for a rate hike or at least for a rate hike promise by the RBNZ Governor Wheeler.

EUR/USD is testing $1.3650 to the downside. GBP/USD is little changed in the $1.6575 area.
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  #60  
Old 29-01-2014, 14:16
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RBA won't cut rates

The recent article in Wall Street Journal argues that the Reserve Bank of Australia wouldn’t cut interest from the record low of 2.5% on Feb. 4.

Recent data showed Australia’s inflation cam at 0.8% in Q4 (forecast: 0.5%). For the full year, inflation ran at 2.7%, toward the top of the RBA’s 2%-3% target band. NAB business confidence showed that business conditions are at their best levels in close to 3 years. Housing construction and house prices also are responding to the low rates, and there’s compelling evidence that retail sales are growing quickly, says WSJ.

Surely, not everything is well. Economic growth this year is still forecast to be below its long-term average of 3.0%. The biggest problem is the slowdown in the mining sector: falling commodity prices have forced mining companies to cancel investment plans, shut mines and lay off workers. Australian payrolls contracted in Dec.

Still, even if the RBA’s still thinking about cutting the benchmark rate it wait for now and take time to plan its next move.
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