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  #21  
Old 23-12-2013, 13:28
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Dec. 23: Asian session

Asian stocks went cautiously higher on Monday encouraged by record highs on Wall Street due to the upbeat data on American economic growth and the resilience of stocks to the Fed’s decision to start QE tapering. However, growth in shares wasn’t strong as China’s benchmark short-term money rates swung to 9.8% fueling the fears of a credit squeeze.

USD/JPY is little changed in the 104.00 area, below Friday’s peak at 104.63. Trading is quiet as Japanese banks are closed today in observance of the Emperor’s Birthday. Australian and New Zealand dollars are trading a little higher on Monday. AUD/USD extends the upside, strengthening to $0.8950. Last week the pair has formed a “hammer” candle. NZD/USD keeps consolidating in the $0.8190/8220 range. Gold price is consolidating around $1200.0 – slightly above the June 3-year low of $1180.0.

EUR/USD edged up to $1.3695 and GBP/USD – up to $1.6360.
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  #22  
Old 23-12-2013, 13:36
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Key currency options (Dec. 23)

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3600, $1.3650, $1.3660, $1.3700, $1.3750;

USD/JPY: 103.00, 104.00, 105.00 (large);

USD/CHF: 0.8900;

AUD/USD: 0.8900 (large) 0.9100 (large);

USD/CAD: 1.0650 1.0675.
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  #23  
Old 23-12-2013, 13:40
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FX BAZOOKA: technicals (Dec. 23)

EURUSD

EUR/USD managed to rise from support at $1.3625 and test $1.3710.

55-period MA is starting to slope down.

The prices returned inside the Ichimoku Cloud. Tenkan-sen (red line at $1.3667) is providing some support. The Cloud turned bearish, but isn’t widening.

MACD remains in the negative territory, but above the signal line. RSI (14) went from oversold to the neutral state (46).

Above $1.3667 there’s scope for increase to $1.3718/33. Upper Bollinger band is at $1.3760. Below this level we’ll be selling.

Resistance: $1.3690, $1.3705, $1.3740/50, $1.3790

Support: $1.3667, $1.3625, $1.3613, $1.3600 and $1.3575 (200-period MA)


Chart. H4 EUR/USD

Upcoming events:

USD - 13:30 GMT - Core PCE Price Index

USD - 13:30 GMT - Personal Spending

EUR - 14:00 GMT - Belgian NBB Business Climate

USD - 14:55 GMT - Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
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  #24  
Old 23-12-2013, 13:44
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FX BAZOOKA: technicals (Dec. 23)

GBPUSD


GBP bulls have given some ground after a quick test of the $1.6485 high last week. Cable has been consolidating in a narrow descending channel since then. However, the pair remains supported at $1.6320 (23.6% Fibo) for now.

H4 MACD histogram is declining and is below the signal line (bearish signal);
Cable slipped below the 100- and 55-period MAs.
Support: $1.6320, $1.6300 (channel support), $1.6230 (38.2% Fibo)

Resistance: $1.6360, $1.6400,$1.6430


Chart. H4 GBP/USD

Upcoming events:

USD - 13:30 GMT - Core PCE Price Index

USD - 13:30 GMT - Personal Spending

USD - 14:55 GMT - Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
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  #25  
Old 23-12-2013, 13:47
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FX BAZOOKA: technicals (Dec. 23)

USDJPY


USD/JPY is retracing a little lower from 104.60 (5-year high 104.60). Our next target for the pair lies at 105.55.

USD/JPY holds above the bullish H4 Ichimoku. The Kijun line lies above the Tenkan line, but both lines are flat.
The pair remains supported by the 55-day MA (102.85) and the 100-period MA (102.50);
H4 MACD histogram is declining and is below the signal line (bearish signal);
104.00/103.75 is the key area of support for now.
Support: 104.00/103.90, 103.75, 103.40

Resistance: 104.60, 105.00, 105.55



Chart. H4 USD/JPY

Upcoming events:

USD - 13:30 GMT - Core PCE Price Index

USD - 13:30 GMT - Personal Spending

USD - 14:55 GMT - Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
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  #26  
Old 23-12-2013, 13:50
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FX BAZOOKA: technicals (Dec. 23)

USD/CHF


USD/CHF is correcting lower after hitting the 0.9000 mark (38.2% Fibo) on Friday.

We believe the last week’s break above the 0.8975 resistance opened the way to 0.9050.

The pair remains supported by the wide bearish Ichimoku, the 100-period MA and the middle Bollinger (0.8970/45 area);

H4 MACD histogram is declining and is below the signal line.
Support: 0.8930/20, 0.8900/8890
Resistance: 0.9000, 0.9030, 0.9050


Chart. H4 USD/CHF

Upcoming events:
USD - 13:30 GMT - Core PCE Price Index
USD - 13:30 GMT - Personal Spending
USD - 14:55 GMT - Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
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  #27  
Old 23-12-2013, 13:52
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FX BAZOOKA: technicals (Dec. 23)

AUD/USD


AUD/USD recovered to $0.8950.

The pair returned to the upper Bollinger band and approached 55-period MA.

All MAs keep declining that indicates that a medium-term downtrend is well in place.

The prices are below the bearish Ichimoku Cloud. However, the Cloud stopped expanding, while Tenkan and Kijun formed a golden cross, weak as it is below the Cloud. Still these lines provide support ($0.8900).

MACD has reached the 0 area on its way up. RSI rose almost to 60.

There will be no news from Australia to help Aussie extend upward correction.
Resistance: $0.8970, $.8990/9000, $0.9040
Support: $0.8900, $0.8820, $0.8800, $0.8755


Chart. H4 AUD/USD

Upcoming events
USD - 13:30 GMT - Core PCE Price Index
USD - 13:30 GMT - Personal Spending
USD - 14:55 GMT - Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
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  #28  
Old 24-12-2013, 13:45
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Dec. 24: Asian session

Asian stocks rose boosted by the gains in the American session as the upbeat US spending data showed that US economic recovery gaining momentum. In addition, China’s central bank moved to ease a cash crunch by making its first market-wide money injection in three weeks.

Japan’s Nikkei went up by about 0.8% to 6-year high above 16,000 after Tokyo markets opened after a holiday. USD/JPY rose to 104.41.

AUD/USD declined to $0.8907 after peaking to $0.8960 yesterday. NZD/USD edged down to $0.8176. Gold dipped below the $1,200 level yesterday and is heading for its biggest annual loss in three decades.

EUR/USD slid to $1.3675 after it tested $1.3716 on Monday. GBP/USD is consolidating around $1.6345.
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  #29  
Old 24-12-2013, 13:56
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EUR/USD: how do the banks trade?

There’s a choice among various shorts.

BoA/Merrill: Short at $1.3764 with stop at $1.3834 and take profit at $1.3479

Credit Agricole: Short at $1.3780 with stop at $1.4160 and take profit at $1.3300

Credit Suisse: Short at $1.3800 with stop at $1.3860 and take profit at $1.3415

Commerzbank: Short at $1.3750 with stop at $1.3815 and take profit at $1.3405

Commerzbank: Short at $1.3665 with stop at $1.3815

Morgan Stanley: Short at $1.3600 with stop at $1.3750 and take profit at $1.2700
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  #30  
Old 24-12-2013, 14:00
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Nomura: trajectory for USD/JPY

Analysts at Nomura have outlines a scenario for USD/JPY using Elliott waves. The specialists expect the pair to trade sideways in the 102.50/104.50 during the next month in the wave (4) and then rally to 106.00 in the wave (5).

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  #31  
Old 24-12-2013, 14:05
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Credit Agricole: Q1 GBP forecasts

GBP/USD

GBP/USD to weaken to $1.6200 in the stronger USD environment. Britain's officials will try to talk the pound down in Q1 2014.



Chart. Weekly GBP/USD

EUR/GBP

As for EUR/GBP, the pair is expected to fall towards 0.8200 by end-March. Pound will gain some ground vs. the euro on a wave of EUR sales.


Chart. Weekly EUR/GBP
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  #32  
Old 30-12-2013, 13:20
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ANZ: EUR/USD will continue uptrend

Analysts at ANZ point out that EUR gained 6% versus its main counterparts this year. This happened despite the fact that the ECB lowered interest rates to the record low, the euro zone’s economic recovery isn’t very convincing and the region’s unemployment remains extremely high.

ANZ concludes that the EUR depends not on comparative growth dynamics, but on a large current account surplus, improving fiscal position and the union’s progress in resolving the crisis and deepening economic integration. According to the specialists, this situation is unlikely to change in 2014. In their view, the uptrend will remain in place, especially against AUD and NZD. ANZ expects EUR/USD to trade in the $1.40/45 range.
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  #33  
Old 30-12-2013, 13:34
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Dec. 30: Asian session

USD/JPY edged up to 105.40. Asian stocks strengthened, curbing demand for haven assets. MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares advanced 0.2%.Yen declined on a mix of improving sentiment on the global economy, rising investor risk appetite and expectations of more Bank of Japan stimulus.

EUR/USD declined to $1.3730 after spiking to $1.3890 on Friday. Euro rose by the end of the year as the European banks tended to repatriate funds ahead of an asset review by the ECB. Mario Draghi said that he saw no urgent need to cut the euro zone’s main interest rate further and no signs of deflation. GBP/USD declined to $1.6474 after spiking to $1.6578 yesterday.

Commodity currencies are all trading under pressure, but have reversed the early-session drop. AUD/USD found support at $0.8835, holding a bit above the key $0.8820 support (Dec. 10 low). NZD/USD bounced from the $0.8115 low.
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  #34  
Old 30-12-2013, 13:39
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BoA: EUR/USD will make a top

Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch have noticed that since 2008 EUR/USD was reversing down near the long-term resistance after completing a 3-legged advance from the previous cyclical low. This time such low is at $1.2041 (July 2012 low).

So, the specialists are looking for a top and turn down. Targets lie at $1.2745 (March 2013 low) and $1.2173.


Chart. Weekly EUR/USD
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  #35  
Old 30-12-2013, 13:46
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Analysts on USD/JPY 2014 prospects

We’ve seen an impressive rally in USD/JPY in the year 2013 – the pair rose by more than 3000 pips, recovering 61.8% Fibonacci from the 2007/2011 decline. The gradual widening of the yield spread between the US and Japan should support the pair further, as the Fed’s monetary policy will become less dovish with time, while the BOJ is expected to ease further. Our next bullish targets lie at 107.35 (200-month MA) and 108.80.

JP Morgan strategists warn about a strong bearish correction in the year 2014. “JPY has high risk of mean reversion over the next year because positioning is so stretched (shorts more than 3-sigmas from average). This extreme positioning is why we have flagged USD/JPY as vulnerable to a correction in Q2 (target 100) if the economy fails to reaccelerate quickly from a contraction induced by the consumption tax hike”. However, by the year-end analysts expect the pair to recover to 106.00.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank are much more optimistic on the USD prospects: “We are only about half way through a move that will eventually push up to and probably through 120.00 yen”. DB puts its 2014 USD/JPY forecasts at 106 in Q1, 109 in Q2, 112 in Q3 and 115 in Q4.


Chart. Monthly USD/JPY
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  #36  
Old 09-01-2014, 13:44
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Jan. 9: Asian session

US dollar remains strong versus its main counterparts as the signs of improvement in the labor market (ADP said US private employers added a bigger-than-expected 238K jobs in December, the strongest increase in 13 months) support expectations the American economy will be strong enough for the Fed to end bond purchases this year. USD/JPY is trading in the 104.80 area after reaching 105.12 yesterday.

Asian shares wavered on Thursday after a lackluster performance on Wall Street overnight. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slipped 0.2% after snapping a five-day losing streak on Wednesday. Despite the yen's weakness, Japan’s Nikkei benchmark shed 1.4%, giving up some of its 1.9% bounce in the previous session.

Australian and New Zealand dollars are trading under pressure for a third consecutive day. AUD/USD dipped to $0.8865 before bouncing to $0.8880. AUD weakened in the Asian trade despite the strong retail sales figures (+0.7% m/m vs. forecasted +0.5%). Australia has also released pretty neutral building approvals data (-1.5% m/m). NZD/USD hit a daily low of $0.8240. New Zealand building consents rose above the forecast by 1.1%. China inflation figures came a little bit below the forecast with CPI rising by 2.5% y/y and PPI falling by 1.4%.

EUR/USD edged up to $1.3586, while GBP/USD is trading in the $1.6450 area.
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  #37  
Old 09-01-2014, 14:06
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Soros: China is the biggest risk

George Soros remains pessimistic about the prospects of the Chinese economy. In his view, the growth model that caused its rapid rise has run out of steam. Soros believes China is the main destabilizing factor threatening the global economic recovery, and not other bleak assessments on the euro, the US political stalemate or a Japanese bubble.

Soros sees a worrisome disconnect between China's pledges to move away from excessive investment and overborrowing and toward a services-based economy without sacrificing rapid growth. “There is an unresolved self-contradiction in China’s current policies: restarting the furnaces also reignites exponential debt growth, which cannot be sustained for much longer than a couple of years," Soros wrote.
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  #38  
Old 10-01-2014, 13:48
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Jan. 10: Asian session

Asian shares were little changed on mixed Chinese trade data. Trade surplus contracted, but the jump at imports points to stronger domestic demand and may mean that the nation’s rebalancing away from a reliance on exports to fuel growth. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan inched up by 0.1%. Shanghai stocks trimmed early losses to be almost flat. Japan’s Nikkei also pared losses to be down 0.4%, while the Hong Kong market added 0.5%.

USD/JPY is trading just under 105.00. AUD/USD is trying to recover after having dipped to $0.8880 on China trade balance figures. NZD/USD remains under a slight bearish pressure for a fourth day in a row. Kiwi remains supported by the 55-day MA at $0.8246 as of writing. Australian and New Zealand dollars may be influenced by the US nonfarm payrolls data today.

EUR/USD found support at $1.3550 yesterday and rose to $1.3616 today. GBP/USD is trading in the $1.6480 area.
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  #39  
Old 10-01-2014, 13:57
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EUR/USD: Ichimoku analysis (Jan. 10)

Daily. The pair started the year with a decline. The strengthening of the US dollar contributed to the fall of the currency pair to the upper limit of the Ichimoku Cloud. Senkou Span B supported euro at $1.3560 – the pair was consolidating above this point last week. Short-term outlook turned bearish as Tenkan and Kijun formed a “dead cross” (C). However, pay attention to the fact that the Kijun-Sen (KS) went up immediately after the intersection. This may mean a recovery in the near term. Also note that the Ichimoku Cloud is still positive.


Chart. Daily EUR/USD

H4. The trend turned bearish at H4. The prices fell and Tenkan-sen and Kijun formed a “dead cross” (C), which is still relevant after almost two weeks. Ichimoku Cloud turned bearish. This indicates that the bears are gaining power. Nevertheless, the support at $1.3560 doesn’t give them the opportunity to continue the decline. During the last day the pair returned to the Tenkan and Kijun lines. If the prices fix above Kijun, they may rise to the lower boundary of the Cloud.


Chart. H4 EUR/USD
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  #40  
Old 10-01-2014, 14:03
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GBP/USD: Ichimoku analysis (Jan. 10)

Daily. During the past week GBP/USD managed to regain a bit the lost ground. Kijun-sen (KS) acted as support, which stopped the corrective decline at $1.6400. Note that a local minimum was formed a lower, in the $1.6340 area. Thus, the upward trend remains in both the short- and long-term prospects. A “golden cross” (C) is still in place. The Ichimoku cloud is bullish. If the prices fix above Tenkan, the bulls will continue purchases.


Chart. Daily GBP/USD

H4. At H4 the picture is not that smooth. After the pair recovered to the upper boundary of the Cloud, it found resistance at $1.6500. It may be difficult for the prices to break higher as Chinkou Span is in the overbought area. So, in the short term we can expect the depreciation to Tenkan after another attempt to get above $1.6500.


Chart. H4 GBP/USD
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