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  #441  
Old 27-08-2014, 13:54
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MARKET NEWS

Aug. 27: Asian session




Asian stocks rose, joining a global rally that’s driven world equity values to a record, and bond risk retreated after data signaled a stronger US economy and Russia’s president hailed as “positive” talks over Ukraine.

USD/JPY is trading in the 104.00 area. EUR/USD edged down to $1.3152. GBP/USD is trading close to the recent lows in the $1.6540 area.

Kiwi dollar was the biggest mover in the session: NZD/USD jumped by 50 pips to $0.8375, extending the recovery from $0.8300 support. The currency was supported by good news from the milk giant Fonterra. AUD/USD recovered to $0.9320 despite the downbeat data. Australia Construction Work Done fell by 1.2% in Q2 vs. -0.3% expected.

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FX BAZOOKA - Aug. 27: Asian session
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  #442  
Old 27-08-2014, 14:11
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MARKET NEWS

Key option levels (Aug. 27)


FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3150, $1.3200 (large), $1.3215, $1.3300 (large);

GBP/USD: $1.6500 (large), $1.6600;

AUD/USD: $0.9220, $0.9250, $0.9275, $0.9305;

USD/CAD: 1.1000 (large), 1.1025 (large);

NZD/USD: $0.8365, $0.8425 (large);

EUR/GBP: 0.7940/50, 0.8000.

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FX BAZOOKA - Key option levels (Aug. 27)
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  #443  
Old 27-08-2014, 14:37
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MARKET NEWS
27 August 2014

BoA: euro zone's inflation will decline


Euro zone’s August inflation data are due on Friday at 09:00 GMT.



Analysts Bank of America Merrill Lynch expect the euro zone’s inflation to slide in August because of the weaker-than-forecast oil prices. In their view, inflation should bottom in August and account to 0.4% in September rising slowly until the year-end, but the likelihood of further downside still appears high. The specialists consider worrisome the fact that the inflation expectations have declined.

BoA thinks that the September meeting may be too early for the ECB to recognize heightened risks to the inflation outlook, but, if risks persist and some materialize as they expect, it will not be able to avoid it. Ultimately, the ECB will be forced to act more before June next year, but it is uncertain whether it will be too little, too late..

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FX BAZOOKA - BoA: euro zone's inflation will decline
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  #444  
Old 28-08-2014, 22:12
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MARKET NEWS

August 28: Asian session




Asian shares declined as a rising yen dragged Japanese stocks lower. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 0.2%. USD/JPY declined to 103.70.

The US dollar weakened before the US publishes today a second estimate for GDP, which probably rose an annualized 3.9% in Q2 vs. 4.0% initial reading. EUR/USD rose to $.3216. GBP/USD went up to $1.6600.

AUD/USD extended the upside, testing $0.9370 in the Asian session. Australia private capital expenditure figure surprised the markets to the upside. CapEx unexpectedly increased by 1.1% in Q2 (forecast: -0.6%, Q1: -2.5%). However, the details of the report (plant equipment) are not so optimistic and made many economists revise down GDP prospects. NZD/USD is currently testing the $0.8400 mark to the upside. RBNZ disclosed its currency reserves data: the central bank sold 2 million NZ dollars in July.

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FX BAZOOKA - August 28: Asian session
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  #445  
Old 28-08-2014, 22:28
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MARKET NEWS

Key option levels (Aug. 28)


FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3200 $1.3250/55;

USD/JPY: 103.50 (large), 104.00;

AUD/USD: $0.9290 (large), $0.9350;

USD/CAD: 1.0910/15 (large), 1.0940, 1.0965, 1.1000/25 (large);

EUR/JPY: 136.75.

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FX BAZOOKA - Key option levels (Aug. 28)
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  #446  
Old 28-08-2014, 22:41
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MARKET NEWS
28 August 2014

Australian economy’s in trouble?


FXBAZOOKA.com - Australia released today stronger than expected business investment data for Q2: private capital expenditure rose by 1.1% vs. an expected decline by 0.6%.

Despite this seemingly good news, spending on equipment, plant and machinery disappointed, and this is the only component of capital expenditure that feeds directly into second-quarter GDP data.

This made many economists reduce their forecasts for Australian economic growth. Private sector forecasts place GDP growth in the June quarter in a range from 0-0.5%. Westpac also revised down its forecasts for Australia’s economic growth in Q2 from 0.4% to 0.3%. The thing that worries the experts greatly is that in the first 3 month of the year Australia’s economy was boosted by strong exports, while now there’s a real risk that correction in net exports could result in a negative quarterly GDP result.

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FX BAZOOKA - Australian economy?s in trouble?
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  #447  
Old 28-08-2014, 22:59
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MARKET NEWS
28 August 2014

France: the new government


The new French cabinet, dubbed Valls II, started working on Wednesday. The reshuffled government is enforced with the loyal supporters of Hollande and Prime Minister Manuel Valls.

Emmanuel Macron, a former banker and Hollande’s top economic adviser, was appointed as new economy minister replacing Arnaud Montebourg, who harshly criticized the policy of austerity measures and called for a change in the nation’s economic course.

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FX BAZOOKA - France: the new government
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  #448  
Old 28-08-2014, 23:11
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MARKET NEWS
28 August 2014

BCC: UK economy growth at fastest since 2007


FXBAZOOKA.com - Great Britain's economy will grow at its fastest pace since 2007 this year, the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) said. BCC upgraded its 2014 UK GDP forecast from 3.1% to 3.2%. The 2015 forecast was also revised up from 2.7% to 2.8%. However, the body expects growth to slow in 2016 with economy growing by only 2.5%.

"Our forecast confirms that Britain has become one of the fastest-growing developed economies. We are leading, rather than following, other major economies when it comes to short-term growth," BCC says.

However, the assosiation warns: the economy is too reliant on consumer spending to accelerate GDP growth. The government has to support investment and exports.

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FX BAZOOKA - BCC: UK economy growth at fastest since 2007
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  #449  
Old 28-08-2014, 23:21
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MARKET NEWS
28 August 2014

Speculation about ECB’s QE cooled


By Mark Jensen

FXBAZOOKA.com - EUR/USD has recovered from a 1-year low in the $1.3150 area to the levels above $1.3200 as the speculation about an imminent round of quantitative easing by the ECB cooled.

According to Reuters, which is citing some unnamed sources, the European Central Bank is unlikely to take new policy action next week unless inflation figures on Friday show the euro zone sinking significantly towards deflation.

Consumer prices in Spain fell in July by 0.5%. Traders are now waiting for German inflation data (forecast 0.0% vs. 0.3% previous) due later today and the reading for the entire euro area which is released on Friday (forecast 0.3% vs. 0.4% previous). But some say that if Friday’s numbers do show the euro zone getting even closer to deflationary territory, the ECB would necessarily act.

Analysts at Bank of New York Mellon point out that one “could have argued that QE should have come along when inflation was at 0.8 or 0.9%, so we can’t suddenly expect action just because inflation drops from 0.4% to 0.3%, or even if it were to drop unexpectedly to 0.2%.” Axel Merk, chief investment officer at Merk Investments, said that bond purchases would be difficult to launch and slow to implement, and the effects of Mr. Draghi’s words could dissipate as the debate within the central bank drags on.

Taking into account big EUR shorts one has to be cautious ahead of the Sept. 4 ECB meeting.

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FX BAZOOKA - Speculation about ECB?s QE cooled
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  #450  
Old 29-08-2014, 01:20
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MARKET NEWS

The 27th of August: American Session




Tatiana Norkina, an analyst of FBS Company

The American dollar was slightly flat today because of the absence of major macroeconomic indicators. At the opening of the session, the dollar fell down by 0.17%.

Stock markets opened oppositely directed. So, the DJIA currently adds about 0.07% and S & P500 is expected to decline, losing about 0.03%.

There is a weakening of the dollar on currency markets. Thus, EUR / USD pair has returned to the level of 1.3190, after today's low of 1.3150. GBP / USD has suddenly jumped to the figure of 1.6600; the support level of 1.6540 resisted. As for the currency pair USD / CHF, it has been corrected to the level of 0.9150 as the morning bulls failed to gain a foothold in new height of 0.9180. The declining tendency can be also found in the case of the pair USD / JPY, which is once again testing the support level of 103.80.

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FX BAZOOKA - The 27th of August: American Session
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  #451  
Old 29-08-2014, 01:31
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MARKET NEWS

Aug. 28: American session




Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst



GDP growth to 4.2% instead of the expected 4.0% significantly increased interest to American dollar. At the opening of session index added about 0.17% and reached 81.60, after declining to 81.35. Applications for unemployment benefits, the amount of which decreased to 298 thousand (forecast: growth of up to 300 thousand) also added positive mood. The data on the real estate market which can also support the dollar index is expected a bit later.

Dollar has also been increasing in currency markets. For example, EUR / USD pair fell again to the level of 1.3160​​. GBP / USD pair dropped to 1.6570 morning support. Currency pair USD / CHF grew to around 0.9160, and USD / JPY back to around 103.80.

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FX BAZOOKA - Aug. 28: American session
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  #452  
Old 30-08-2014, 01:27
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MARKET NEWS

Aug. 29: Asian session




FXBAZOOKA.com - Asian stocks fell as the geopolitical risk flared again. The United States on Thursday openly accused Russia of sending combat forces into Ukraine and threatened to tighten economic sanctions.

USD/JPY rose to 103.85 as Japan released discouraging economic data. Japanese household spending fell more than expected, the jobless rate edged up and factory output remained weak in July after plunging last month.

EUR/USD edged down towards $1.3170. GBP/USD is trading a bit on the downside, in the $1.6580 area.

NZD/USD dipped to $0.8350 before recovering to $0.8370. New Zealand building consents rose by only 0.1% in July versus 3.5% expected, while the ANZ Business Confidence index diminished from 39.7 to 24.4. AUD/USD consolidates in a narrow $0.9345/60 range following the yesterday’s quick spike to $0.9370.

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FX BAZOOKA - Aug. 29: Asian session
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  #453  
Old 30-08-2014, 01:49
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MARKET NEWS

Key option levels (Aug. 29)


FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3150, $1.3200 (large), $1.3215, $1.3235/40 (large), $1.3250 (large)

GBP/USD: $1.6550, $1.6600, $1.6690;

USD/JPY: 102.50/102.90 (large), 103.00 (large), 103.20 (large), 103.25 (large), 103.35, 103.75/85 (large), 104.00 (large), 104.50 (large);

AUD/USD: $0.9290/95, $0.9310/15, $0.9350;

USD/CAD: 1.0800, 1.0870 (large), 1.0900, 1.0915/25 (large), 1.0940/50;

NZD/USD: $0.8350, $0.8400 (large), $0.8440/50;

EUR/GBP: 0.7900, 0.7950, 0.8000;

EUR/JPY: 136.50 (large), 136.75, 138.15 (large).

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FX BAZOOKA - Key option levels (Aug. 29)
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  #454  
Old 30-08-2014, 03:39
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MARKET NEWS

The 29th of August: American Session


At the opening session the index of the American dollar adds more than 0.05% against the background of positive statistics from the University of Michigan. However stock markets were opened oppositely directed. Thus, the DJIA fell by 0.10% and S & P500 grew up by 0.05%.



Currency markets are consolidated. The pair EUR / USD was trying to recover the 1.3200 figure, but it retuned to the support level of 1.3160 ​​ with the arrival of American players. Bulls are in a gail the figure 1.6600 on the pair GBP / USD. As for USD / CHF, it has resisted above level of 0.9140 and is recovering to 0.9160 now. USD / JPY fell back to 103.80 after testing the figure 104.

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FX BAZOOKA - The 29th of August: American Session
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  #455  
Old 01-09-2014, 16:02
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MARKET NEWS

Sep. 1: Asian session




FXBAZOOKA.com - US dollar reached the highest level in almost a year against the euro as signs of US economic growth and tensions in Ukraine boosted demand for the currency. EUR/USD opened with a gap down at $1.3127. GBP/USD edged a bit up, to the $1.6600.

USD/JPY opened with a gap up at 104.17. Most Asian stocks rose, as investors weighed whether Chinese policy makers will add stimulus after reports showing slower manufacturing growth.

AUD/USD opened the week with a bearish gap, but recovered to $0.9340 in the Asian trade. NZD/USD tracked the Aussie, recovering into the $0.8375 area. Commodity currencies stayed in demand despite the weak Chinese figures and a contraction in Australian company operating profits.

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FX BAZOOKA - Sep. 1: Asian session
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  #456  
Old 01-09-2014, 16:27
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MARKET NEWS

Key option levels (Sep. 1)


FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3135, $1.3185/95, $1.3290/3300 (large);

GBP/USD: $1.6635;

USD/JPY: 103.25 (large), 103.40, 104.20;

AUD/USD: $0.9320;

USD/CAD: 1.0800 (large), 1.1000 (large);

NZD/USD: $0.8400.

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FX BAZOOKA - Key option levels (Sep. 1)
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  #457  
Old 01-09-2014, 16:42
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MARKET NEWS
1 September 2014

CFTC report: week ending Aug. 26


FXBAZOOKA.com - According to the latest CFTC report, released on Aug. 29, large traders and speculators raised their USD bullish bets to the highest level since June 2013. The value of net USD longs increased from $30.4 billion as of Aug. 19 to $32.9 billion as of Aug. 26.

The aggregate long USD position was mainly supported by growing EUR and JPY net shorts.





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FX BAZOOKA - CFTC report: week ending Aug. 26
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  #458  
Old 02-09-2014, 13:13
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MARKET NEWS

Sep. 2: Asian session




Asian shares slipped on Tuesday as a US holiday robbed markets of momentum. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan lost 0.6% after rising on the previous day.

USD/JPY soared to 104.86. Yen weakened before Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announces a new cabinet tomorrow.

AUD/USD fell to $0.9285. The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its key interest rate at a record low to support growth and said an overvalued currency is hampering the economy’s transition away from mining investment. NZD/USD fell to $0.8340.

EUR/USD is trading in the $1.3130/20 area. Euro hit a fresh 1-year low on uncertainty over the ECB’s policy decision later this week. GBP/USD slid below $1.6600.

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FX BAZOOKA - Sep. 2: Asian session
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  #459  
Old 02-09-2014, 13:26
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MARKET NEWS

Key option levels (Sep. 2)


FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3100 (large), $1.3125, $1.3200 (large);

USD/JPY: 103.90, 104.00 (large), 104.30;

AUD/USD: $0.9250 (large), $0.9400;

USD/CAD: 1.0870, 1.0900;

NZD/USD: $0.8400;

EUR/JPY: 137.75.

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FX BAZOOKA - Key option levels (Sep. 2)
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  #460  
Old 02-09-2014, 13:42
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MARKET NEWS
2 September 2014

JPY is affected by Abe expectations


Japanese yen got under pressure because of the speculation that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will appoint tomorrow an ally – Yasuhisa Shiozaki – to head the health, labor and welfare ministry, which is in charge of reforming the nation’s pension fund.

Shiozaki has been actively putting forward suggestions on GPIF reform (Government Pension Investment Fund). Such expectations are lifting up Japanese stocks and keeping yen under pressure.

According to Bloomberg, Japan’s health ministry oversees the 127.3 trillion yen ($1.2 trillion) GPIF, the world’s largest pool of retirement savings. It will probably announce its new asset allocations in autumn. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg in May predict GPIF will raise its holdings of Japanese equities and trim its domestic bond assets.

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FX BAZOOKA - JPY is affected by Abe expectations
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  #461  
Old 02-09-2014, 23:26
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MARKET NEWS

The 2d of September: American Session




Tatiana Norkina, an analyst of FBS Company

The index of the American dollar continues strengthening. During the day the index has tested the 83.00 figure and added more than 0.20% at the opening of the American session. Later on the data on manufacturing activity (ISM) for the last monthwas published. Analysts forecast a slight decline.

The Stock market trading was opened with a decrease. DJIA index dipped slightly to 0.13%, while the S & P 500 - 0.03%.

The trading of EUR / USD pair is relatively quiet. At the beginning of the American session, this currency pair has returned to the level of 1.3125, after updating to 1.3110 lows. Bulls completely lost the Friday's attitude in the case of the pair GBP / USD,that lost about half of the figure during the day, and went down to 1.6510 level. New extremum was established by the pair USD / CHF recovering to 0.9211 today, but as for now it retuned to figure. The currency pair USD / JPY has greatly increased to maximum level of December of the last year - 105.00.

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FX BAZOOKA - The 2d of September: American Session
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  #462  
Old 03-09-2014, 13:07
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MARKET NEWS

Sep. 3: Asian session




FXBAZOOKA.com - Asian stocks rose as the yen fell to a January low and reports showed faster expansion in China’s service industries. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.5%.

USD/JPY reached 105.30. US dollar strengthened on bets quickening U.S. growth will spur the Fed to increase interest rates sooner than traders anticipate. Yen weakened as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will appoint Yasuhisa Shiozaki to head the ministry in charge of revamping the national pension fund. EUR/USD is trading in the $1.3130 area. GBP/USD hit $1.6444.

AUD/USD remains relatively unchanged in the Asian session, despite the high volatility. The pair swung in the $0.9260/9300 range. Australian GDP growth slowed from 1.1% in Q1 to 0.5% in Q2, but came a bit above the forecast (+0.4%). Anyway, this was the lowest quarterly GDP growth since the year 2012. China Services PMI had little impact to the Aussie. NZD/USD dipped to $0.8280 before returning back above the $0.8300 mark.

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FX BAZOOKA - Sep. 3: Asian session
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  #463  
Old 03-09-2014, 13:20
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MARKET NEWS

Key option levels (Sep. 3)


FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3100, $1.3180, $1.3200;

USD/JPY: 104.25, 104.65, 105.00 (large), 105.50 (large);

AUD/USD: $0.9225 (large), $0.9275/85 (large), $0.9310;

USD/CAD: 1.0935, 1.0950, 1.1000;

NZD/USD: $0.8370;

EUR/GBP: 0.7855, 0.7875, 0.7900, 0.7915.

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FX BAZOOKA - Key option levels (Sep. 3)
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  #464  
Old 03-09-2014, 13:37
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MARKET NEWS
3 September 2014

RBA will remain firmly on hold


FXBAZOOKA.com - Australian economic growth has slowed in Q2, but came a bit above expectations. The biggest contributor to growth remains the mining sector, accounting for around 1.2% of GDP. A rebound in inventories helped to support the overall figure.



The comments of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Governor Stevens made Aussie rise. Stevens said that further cuts in the interest rates are unlikely and that there are signs that growth continuing in the current quarter. While this is hardly news for the market, this may liquidate the remaining doves calling for lower interest rates.

RBC: “Q3 is looking slightly better but it’s not going to be enough to get back to above trend growth any time soon. We see the RBA for the foreseeable future.”

ANZ: “We don’t think the RBA will be swayed from its on-hold stance, with the gradual nature of the recovery unlikely to generate significant improvement in the unemployment rate for some time.”

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FX BAZOOKA - RBA will remain firmly on hold
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  #465  
Old 03-09-2014, 13:53
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MARKET NEWS
3 September 2014

Traders fear RBNZ intervention


NZD/USD fell to the lowest levels since the end of February in the $0.8285 area. Kiwi slipped after Fonterra Cooperative Group Ltd., the world’s biggest dairy exporter, said the price of whole milk powder fell to the lowest since July 2012.



Moreover, the decline of New Zealand’s dollar since July was caused by comments of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Graeme Wheeler who said back then that NZD’s strength was “unjustified” and risked hurting the economy. The RBNZ put the further interest-rate increases on hold after it became in March the first major central banker to lift borrowing costs in 3 years.

Traders now think that the RBNZ may intervene at the currency market. Speculation that officials intervened intensified as the kiwi dropped on Aug. 25. Unlike last year, officials haven’t confirmed this time that they sought to weaken the currency.

Analysts at ANZ point out that in such situation traders will less likely try to buy NZD on the potential bottom for fear that there are some big sellers at the market.

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FX BAZOOKA - Traders fear RBNZ intervention
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  #466  
Old 03-09-2014, 23:23
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MARKET NEWS

September, 3: American Session




Tatiana Norkina, analyst at FBS

The US dollar index, after updating its highs (83.06), has corrected to the 82.90 area today and is losing about 0.07% at the American session opening. Data on US factory orders for the past month are expected to be published a little later. Analysts are predicting a significant growth of the index.

Stock markets have opened on the positive. DJIA is adding about 0.43%, S & P500 - about 0.30%.

Currency markets are in consolidation today. Thus, the EUR/USD pair has fixed above 1.3120 and is trading within the range of 1.3120-1.3150. GBP/USD rate varies within the 1.6450-1.6490 channel. The USD/CHF pair has corrected to the 0.9175 support, but the downward movement is not yet over. The USD/JPY currency pair is back under the 105.00 figure.

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FX BAZOOKA - September, 3: American Session
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  #467  
Old 03-09-2014, 23:38
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MARKET NEWS
3 September 2014

Bank of Canada remained neutral


The Bank of Canada left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1% in line with expectations.

The main message was that the central bank “remains neutral with respect to the timing and direction of the next change to the policy rate, its timing will depend on how new information influences the outlook and assessment of risks.”

The BOC said that the increase in inflation was caused by temporary effects of higher energy prices. More important, though, is that the regulator sounded optimistic on US economic growth.

USD/CAD declined below 1.0900 as Canadian dollar strengthened.

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Old 03-09-2014, 23:54
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MARKET NEWS
3 September 2014

Cease-fire talks support stocks


Demand for risky assets retrurned to the markets as Russia and Ukraine agreed on steps toward a cease-fire. Putin suggested a 7-point plan to resolve the conflict. No final decision has been made yet, but the intentions of the government were a positive signal for the markets. A lasting cease-fire would be the biggest breakthrough in the long-playing conflict that has stolen more than 2,600 human lives.

As a result, US Treasuries and the dollar fell. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes climbed to a 3-week high. At the same time, global stocks rallied: the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index hit an all-time high of



Chart. S&P 500 (Source: Bloomberg)

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Old 04-09-2014, 23:24
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MARKET NEWS

Sep. 4: Asian session


USD/JPY edged up to 104.90 after declining yesterday. US dollar is stronger versus Japanese yen ahead of the data forecast to show a pickup in U.S. employment, supporting bets the Fed will raise interest rates. The Bank of Japan kept its record stimulus unchanged at today’s meeting.

AUD/USD attempted to push higher following a strong “bullish engulfing” candle on Wednesday, but met resistance at $0.9360. As expected, Australia retail sales growth slowed from 0.6% in June to 0.4% in July. Trade deficit lowered to 1.36B. NZD/USD consolidates around $0.8310, slightly above the yesterday’s $0.8285 low.

EUR/USD edged down to $1.3440. GBP/USD is trading on the downside in the $1.6455 area.

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Old 04-09-2014, 23:45
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MARKET NEWS
4 September 2014

BOJ meeting: key points

  • As expected, the Bank of Japan left monetary policy unchanged, leaving the annual QE target 60-70 trillion yen
  • The BOJ Governor Kuroda explained on a press-conference, that an aggressive easing was maintained to compensate the impact of the April sales tax hike. Easing has an intended effect
  • Dovish point is that BOJ acknowledged housing investment slump post the sales hike
  • However, the major risk seen for the economy is external, not the effect of the tax hike
  • Despite the recent negative data, the BOJ believes the economy “is recovering as a trend”, private consumption is resilient
  • Inflation: CPI ex. Food prices and sales tax hike effect will stay unchanged at 1.25% in the short term. Inflation target of 2% will be reached in Oct 2015 – March 2016.

Conclusion

BOJ acknowledged there is some downbeat effect from the tax hike, but did’t disclose any additional easing intentions

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Old 05-09-2014, 00:00
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MARKET NEWS
4 September 2014

German data: really an improvement?


German factory orders rose by 4.6% in July after declining by 2.7% in the previous month.

Analysts at Commerzbank, however, think that it doesn’t yet mean that the recent phase of weakness is over. In their view, the period of holidays was late this summer, probably in August, so they expect a decline when the data for the final month of summer come out.



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Old 05-09-2014, 00:15
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MARKET NEWS
4 September 2014

EUR/USD ahead of the ECB


EUR/USD is consolidating in a sort of triangle on H1 ahead of the ECB meeting and press conference later today (11:45 and 12:30 GMT). Germany released an upbeat factory orders report. The spread between US and German bond yields is also narrowing eases pressure on EUR/USD slightly. At the same time, most European stocks declined as investors awaited the ECB’s decision.

Bears are waiting for ECB policy meeting and ADP for further trend confirmation. The less dovish statement by ECB in policy meeting probably won’t have a prolonged impact on EUR’s downtrend, and Draghi will probably do his best to sound dovish. To do that the ECB could provide new details on ABS purchases (QE) or reduce GDP and inflation forecasts. This might be enough to cause the single currency’s selloff. Positive ADP employment data will affect EUR/USD making it move down.

Most analysts allow a short squeeze in EUR/USD targeting $1.3220 and $1.3345, but remain the long-term bearish. Main support is at $1.3100.


Chart. H1 EUR/USD

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Old 05-09-2014, 00:28
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MARKET NEWS
4 September 2014

Bank of England: policy unchanged


FXBAZOOKA.com - As it was widely expected, the Bank of England left monetary policy unchanged with a bank rate at 0.5% and QE at £375 billion pounds.

The markets will now be awaiting for the MPC minutes release on September 17 to see how did the 9 policymakers vote. Remember that August meeting minutes showed 2 members voted for an immediate rate hike, while other 7 didn't support the idea.

GBP/USD dipped to a new low of $1.6430 on the news, but recovered to $1.6450 rapidly.

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Old 05-09-2014, 00:43
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MARKET NEWS
4 September 2014

ECB cut rate to 0.05%

FXBAZOOKA.com - The European Central Bank unexpectedly cut benchmark rate from 0.15% to 0.05%.

EUR/USD tested $1.3036. Next target on the downside is $1.3000. Former support at $1.3110 represents a resistance.

The ECB’s President Mario Draghi will start his press conference at 12:30 GMT.

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Old 05-09-2014, 01:02
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MARKET NEWS

Sept.4: American session




Tatiana Norkina, analyst at FBS

The US Dollar index has leapt abruptly to the 83.48 mark after ECB decision to cut interest rates from 0.15% to 0.05%. By the American session opening, the index is adding over 0.60%.

Stock markets have also opened on the positive: the major indexes are adding slightly above 0.30%. The main driver was the data on the US trade balance, the deficit of which has decreased to $40.55 billion.

Currency markets have responded rather nervously to the ECB decision. Thus, the EUR/USD pair hs tumbled to new lows of 1.2995. The GBP/USD currency pair has fallen to 1.6390, then returning to the 1.6425 area. Bears continue stepping up. USD/CHF has soared to new highs - 0.9268. The USD/JPY pair, however, is still trading under the 105.00 figure.

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Old 06-09-2014, 04:27
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MARKET NEWS

Sept. 5: Asian session


FXBAZOOKA.com - Asian stocks fell while the US dollar extended the upside after the European Central Bank announced a rate cut and an Asset-purchase plan on Thursday. Markets await the US labor data to confirm US economic recovery. Meanwhile in Ukraine, President Petro Poroshenko voiced “careful optimism” that talks today with pro-Russian rebels will set the course for a cease-fire. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.6%. USD/JPY touched a new high of 105.70, but retraced to back to the 105.00 mark as we write.

EUR/USD consolidates around $1.2930 after falling by more than 200 pips on the ECB policy easing announcement. GBP/USD touched a new minimum of $1.6285 in Asia, but bounced a little bit higher.

AUD/USD consolidates around $0.9340following the yesterday’s rapid push to $0.9390. NZD/USD touched $0.8270 in Asian trade.

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Old 06-09-2014, 04:54
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MARKET NEWS
5 September 2014

What to expect from the US NFP?


FXBAZOOKA.com - Exhausted by the yesterday’s ECB-related move, currency traders await the US labor market data on Friday (12:30 GMT). Consensus forecasts are upbeat for all the 3 releases:



Key US releases (Sept. 5)

The ECB easing announcement made it very clear that monetary policy divergence between the euro zone and the United States is increasing. The Federal Reserve has a clear intention to finish the QE in October and to proceed to raising interest rates afterwards. Of course, the terms are important, but in this case it is the direction that matters: the Fed is hawkish, while Yellen is dovish. In our view, US NFP above 200K will be enough to confirm: US economic recovery remains on track and the Fed's tightening strategy is adequate to the market conditions.



Chart. NFP dynamics in 2013-2014

NFP above the 226K consensus will clearly push the US dollar a little higher. but the upside seems to be limited today. However, the figure below forecast will likely trigger a short-lived, but potentially deep USD correction. The greenback is clearly overbought after the yesterday's rally.


Chart. US dollar index (Bloomberg)

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Old 06-09-2014, 05:25
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MARKET NEWS
5 September 2014

USD down on weak NFP


US dollar index declined from a 14-month as the US non-farm payrolls increased at a lowest pace in 2014 in August. The news dampen expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates sooner than expected. US employers added only 142K jobs in August vs. 226K expected. July figure was revised up from 209K to 212K.

Unemployment rate declined from 62.% to 6.1% in line with expectations.

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Old 06-09-2014, 05:44
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MARKET NEWS
5 September 2014

Ukraine agreed ceasfire with rebels


The Ukrainian government and representatives of the Russian-backed rebels have agreed a ceasefire from 15:00 GMT on Friday in Minsk. European Union will likely hold off the additional sanctions if the conflict really will be deescalated.

The reports of the ceasefire agreement are a strong positive factors fpr the risky assets. Russian markets and the rouble rallied sharply on the news.

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Old 08-09-2014, 16:01
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MARKET NEWS
8 September 2014

CFTC: USD longs keep rising


FXBAZOOKA.com - According to the latest CFTC report, released on Sep. 5, large traders and speculators raised their USD bullish bets to the highest level since June 2013. The value of net USD longs increased from $32.9 billion as of Aug. 26. to $35.9 billion as of Sept. 2. The aggregate US dollar bullish position has risen for 3 weeks in a row.



Large speculators turned much more bearish versus the euro, yen and the pound. Demand for the Aussie and the loonie recovered a little bit.



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