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  #401  
Old 13-08-2014, 15:11
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MARKET NEWS
13 August 2014

The BoE cut 2014 wage growth forecast


The Bank of England sounded more dovish than expected, cutting wage growth forecasts and giving no timing on rate hikes. GBP/USD slipped to a fresh 2-month low of $1.6720 on the news.

Forecasts:

2014 wage growth forecast revised down from +2.5% to +1.25%
unemployment rate seen at 5.4% in two years
"market" sees first rate rise in Q1 2015 reaching 2% by Q4 2016
the 2% inflation target remains unchanged
Marc Carney:

MPC does not have a particular threshold for wage growth to trigger a rate hike
expensive GBP hurts British exports
slow and small rate hikes will mitigate risk that higher borrowing costs trigger slowdown
pick up in productovity slack will take longer than previously expected
slowdown on the housing market is due to new FCA mortgage rules and will be short-lived

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FX BAZOOKA - The BoE cut 2014 wage growth forecast
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  #402  
Old 14-08-2014, 16:57
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MARKET NEWS

Aug. 14: Asian session




FXBAZOOKA.com - Asian stocks rose as a slowdown in the US retail sales fueled bets the Fed won’t raise interest rates earlier than expected. The expectations of lower rates in the US for a longer period of time make traders more optimistic. USD/JPY rose to 102.65. Yen fell for a fourth day as demand for safe havens declined.

EUR/USD slid to $1.3355 after spiking to $1.3415 yesterday. According to the data released today, France’s economic growth stagnated in Q2, while German GDP contracted more than expected – by 0.2%.Euro zone’s GDP is due at 09:00 GMT. GBP/USD tested $1.6669 on the downside after sliding by more than 120 pips yesterday.

Commodity currencies retraced a bit higher from the last week’s lows as risk sentiment improved a little. NZD/USD retraced to $0.8460 after a push $0.8490, but stays in the positive zone. New Zealand Business Manufacturing Index came a bit below the forecast (53.0 vs. 53.4 expected), while retail sales surprised to the upside (1.2% vs. 1.0% expected). AUD/USD trades under slight bearish pressure around $0.9295.

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FX BAZOOKA - Aug. 14: Asian session
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  #403  
Old 14-08-2014, 23:30
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MARKET NEWS

Key option levels (Aug. 14)


Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:EUR/USD: $1.3350/60 (large), $1.3400 (large);

GBP/USD: $1.6635, $1.6850;

USD/JPY: 101.45/50 (large), 101.65/75 (large), 101.95 (large), 102.00 (large), 102.05;

AUD/USD: $0.9275 (large), $0.9320, $0.9333;

USD/CAD: 1.0880 (large), 1.0920/25 (large), 1.0990 (large);

NZD/USD: $0.8550;

EUR/CHF: 1.2150 (large);

EUR/GBP: 0.8045.

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FX BAZOOKA - Key option levels (Aug. 14)
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  #404  
Old 14-08-2014, 23:44
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MARKET NEWS
14 August 2014

Danske Bank: USD demand presists


USD remains very attractive despite softer than expected US retail sales yesterday, analysts at Danske Bank say. They point that portfolio flows continue to be supportive for the USD both into the equity and US Treasury markets.

Meanwhile, strategists are sceptic about the European and British currencies. EUR will likely remain under pressure following today’s euro-zone Q2 preliminary GDP, while GBP should correct lower after the yesterday's BOE disappointment.

US Dollar index is now on its highest level since October 2013.


Chart: Bloomberg

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FX BAZOOKA - Danske Bank: USD demand presists
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  #405  
Old 14-08-2014, 23:56
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MARKET NEWS
14 August 2014

Euro area's economy stagnates


FXBAZOOKA.com - The euro area’s recovery halted in Q2, underlining the vulnerability of the region to weak inflation and the deepening crisis in Ukraine. This may increase pressure on the European Central Bank to expand stimulus.

German GDP contracted by 0.2% after gaining 0.8% in the first 3 months of the year, while French economic growth stagnated and Italy’s unexpectedly fell into recession.

Bloomberg reports that the decline in German economy was largely due to a warm winter that shifted production to earlier months. Still, the outlook is now clouded by the impact of international sanctions against Russia over its support of separatists in Ukraine.

As for France, the failure of its economy to grow for a second straight quarter made the government abandon its 2014 deficit targets. French authorities now believe that the nation’s full-year growth will account for 0.5% instead of 1%, while the deficit in 2014 will exceed the 4% limit of GDP agreed less than 4 months ago with the European Commission. Finance Minister Michel Sapin blamed European policy for the lack of expansion in Europe’s second-biggest economy.

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FX BAZOOKA - Euro area's economy stagnates
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  #406  
Old 15-08-2014, 11:41
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MARKET NEWS

Aug. 15: Asian session




FXBAZOOKA.com - Asian shares pulled higher on Friday, on track for a winning week, while the euro remained close to nine-month lows after downbeat data. USD/JPY rose to 102.50, but is below yesterday’s high at 102.65.

EUR/USD is little changed in the $1.3365 area. French and German banks are closed for the bank holidays. GBP/USD is trading in the $1.6690 area after it found support at the 200-day MA yesterday. Pound is waiting for the UK GDP release (second estimate).

AUD/USD strengthened to $0.9325 – this is the yesterday’s high. NZD/USD recovered to $0.8480 following a dip to $0.8465. Gold price sits at $1312.10.

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FX BAZOOKA - Aug. 15: Asian session
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  #407  
Old 15-08-2014, 11:56
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MARKET NEWS

Key option levels (Aug. 15)


FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.3400 (large) 1.3425 (large);

GBP/USD: 1.6740 (large);

USD/JPY: 101.80/85, 102.00, 102.25, 102.50, 103.00;

AUD/USD: $0.9275, $0.9315/25, $0.9375;

USD/CAD: 1.0850, 1.0875 (large), 1.0915/25 (large), 1.0950 (large);

NZD/USD: 0.8450;

EUR/GBP: 0.7940 0.8000 0.8100.

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FX BAZOOKA - Key option levels (Aug. 15)
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  #408  
Old 15-08-2014, 12:07
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MARKET NEWS
15 August 2014

BOJ: 2015 rate hike under question


The economic conditions in Japan keep on worsening. According to the unnamed Bank of Japan officials, the central bank may cut economic forecasts for the fiscal year 2014 as exports fail to support the economy, weakened by the sales tax hike in April. Economic growth for the 12 months through March 2015 will be below 1% forecasted earlier.

Another related piece of news: Japan finance minister Aso said early Friday they will closely watch economic data from Q3 before deciding whether to hike rates in Octover 2015.

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FX BAZOOKA - BOJ: 2015 rate hike under question
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  #409  
Old 18-08-2014, 10:09
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MARKET NEWS

Aug. 18: Asian session




Asian stocks after last week’s gains stalled as another bout of tensions in the Ukrainian conflict sapped investor confidence. US dollar weakened versus its counterparts ahead of data forecast to show inflation slowed and before central bankers meet at an annual conference in Jackson Hole.

USD/JPY is trading at the 200-day MA in the 102.30 area. EUR/USD is just under $1.3400. GBP/USD opened with more than a 30-pip gap up at $1.6730. Pound rose on the comments from Bank of England’s Governor Carney who said that he would not wait for real wages to turn positive before raising interest rates.

Commodity currencies trade sideways on Monday. AUD/USD consolidates around the Friday high of $0.9320. Australia new motor vehicle sales fell by 1.3% versus prior 2.2% growth. NZD/USD trades in a narrow $0.8470/8500 range. Gold sits at the 200-week MA ($1301.70).

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FX BAZOOKA - Aug. 18: Asian session
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  #410  
Old 18-08-2014, 10:28
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MARKET NEWS

Key option levels (Aug. 18)


Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

USD/JPY: 101.75/80, 102.15, 102.65, 102.80 (large), 103.00;

USD/CAD: 1.0925/30 (large);

AUD/USD: 0.9310;

EUR/CHF: 1.2000 (large), 1.2150;

EUR/GBP: 0.7965, 0.8000 (large), 0.8010 (large).

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FX BAZOOKA - Key option levels (Aug. 18)
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  #411  
Old 19-08-2014, 04:08
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MARKET NEWS
18 August 2014

CFTC: net USD longs declined


FX BAZOOKA - According to the latest CFTC report, released om Aug. 15, large speculators reduced their net USD longs from $29.41 billion on Aug. 5 to $27.00 billion on Aug. 12. This was the first decline in positions value after 3 weeks of growth. The calculation considers the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.


However, the amount of USD contracts rose last week from 129K contracts to 144K contracts. The total US dollar contracts calculation takes into account more currencies: the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican peso.

EUR net short positions rebounded last week from the most bearish level since Aug. 2012, but still remain heavily bearish.


Source: CFTC

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FX BAZOOKA - CFTC: net USD longs declined
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  #412  
Old 19-08-2014, 04:21
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MARKET NEWS

Aug. 18: American Session




Tatiana Norkina, analyst at FBS

The US dollar index has kept hold above the 81.40 support today. Bullish sentiment is noticable at the American session opening, which stimulated the index to add more than 0.15%. Stock markets are also on the rise: DJIA has opened with a gap-up and is currently in the green zone - +0.80%, while S&P500 is adding over 0.65%. Important macroeconomic indicators are not expected today.

Currency markets are also witnessing strengthening of the dollar positions against other major currencies. Thus, EUR/USD has bounced down from the 1.3400 figure and is now in the area of Friday's lows - 1.3360. The USD/CHF currency pair has risen to 0.9060. GBP/USD has failed to overcome the 1.6730 resistance and is decreasing into the ​​1.6720 area. In the meantime, bulls are restoring the USD/JPY rate to the 102.60 mark - bullish sentiments is obvious to remain.

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FX BAZOOKA - Aug. 18: American Session
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  #413  
Old 20-08-2014, 01:17
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MARKET NEWS

Aug. 19: Asian session



US dollar held gains against major peers as signs of economic recovery supported the case for the Fed to raise interest rates. Asian stocks rose after confidence in the US housing industry climbed to the highest level in 7 months and tensions eased over global political conflicts. USD/JPY edged up to 102.65.

AUD/USD rose to $0.9340. Australian dollar gained after the nation’s central bank reiterated a period of rates stability is prudent. NZD/USD slid from $0.8475 testing $0.8424. New Zealand’s currency fell for a third day after a producer-price index declined by 0.5% in Q2.

EUR/USD slid to the $1.3350 area. GBP/USD is trading on the downside, but managed to stay above $1.6700.

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FX BAZOOKA - Aug. 19: Asian session
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  #414  
Old 20-08-2014, 01:30
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MARKET NEWS

Key option levels (Aug. 19)


Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3350 (large), $1.3365/75, $1.3390;

GBP/USD: $1.6600, $1.6685, $1.6795;

USD/JPY: 102.50, 102.60, 103.00;

AUD/USD: $0.9290, $0.9340;

USD/CAD: 1.0850/55, 1.0950;

NZD/USD: $0.8425, $0.8450;

EUR/CHF: 1.2100.

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FX BAZOOKA - Key option levels (Aug. 19)
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  #415  
Old 20-08-2014, 03:53
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MARKET NEWS
19 August 2014

GBP/USD fell as inflation slowed


GBP/USD fell to $1.6623, the lowest level since the beginning of April closing this week’s opening gap.

Pound weakened as the UK inflation data came lower than expected. Note though that the inflation (1.6%) is still rather close to the Bank of England's 2% target. Further dynamics of GBP will depend on the market's expectations ahead of the BoE's minutes release on Wednesday, 08:30 GMT).



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FX BAZOOKA - GBP/USD fell as inflation slowed
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  #416  
Old 20-08-2014, 04:12
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MARKET NEWS

The 19th of August: American Session




Tatiana Norkina, the analyst at FBS Company



The American dollar continued its strengthening and has grown to the point of 81.92 today. At the beginning of the session, the Index added about 0.30%. The main driver of the movement was the relatively positive information about inflation, as well as the strong statistics of the construction sector.

Stock markets are going way up the fifth consecutive session increasing by 0.35% at the opening today.

Also the strengthening of the dollar has affected the majority of dollar currency pairs. Thus, the pair EUR / USD has fallen to a new low of 1.3310. Currency pair USD / CHF got around the 0.9100 figure, enhancing the chances of the bulls in the handled violation and the resnewal of the up trend. GBP / USD pair has collapsed to the support level of 1.6620, losing more than the half of the figure in the morning. But USD / JPY has recovered to the upper limit of the range 102.60-102.80 constraining bulls movement from the beginning of August.

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FX BAZOOKA - The 19th of August: American Session
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  #417  
Old 20-08-2014, 12:49
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MARKET NEWS

Aug. 20: Asian session




FXBAZOOKA.com - US dollar strengthened on speculation the Fed is moving toward raising interest rates. Good US housing data helped Treasury yields get higher.

USD/JPY rose to 103.25 as Japanese trade deficit widened more than expected and the all industries activity contracted. AUD/USD slid to 102.78. The Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens said that the central bank has decided to stick to its current policy for a time being and reiterated the risk of a material fall in the Australian dollar is “underestimated.” NZD/USD fell to 5-month low at $0.8370 as the greenback’s strength added to bearish factors including soft dairy prices and investor preference for the neighboring Aussie dollar.

EUR/USD declined to $1.3300. GBP/USD edged down to $1.6600.

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FX BAZOOKA - Aug. 20: Asian session
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  #418  
Old 20-08-2014, 13:02
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MARKET NEWS

Key option levels (Aug. 20)


FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3250, $1.3350/55, $1.3400 (large);

GBP/USD: $1.6650;

USD/JPY: 102.00, 102.50 (large), 102.75/80, 103.00 (large);

USD/CHF: 0.9100 (large);

AUD/USD: $0.9225, $0.9335;

USD/CAD: 1.0880, 1.0900;

EUR/JPY: 136.65.

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FX BAZOOKA - Key option levels (Aug. 20)
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  #419  
Old 20-08-2014, 13:52
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MARKET NEWS
20 August 2014

GBP jumped on the MPC minutes


FXBAZOOKA.com - GBP/USD jumped back from $1.6600 on the Bank of England’s meeting minutes. As it turned out, 2 MPC members (Ian McCafferty and Martin Weale) voted for a rate hike, while other 7 voted to keep rates unchanged. At the previous meetings the all 9 MPC members voted for no changes in rates.

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FX BAZOOKA - GBP jumped on the MPC minutes
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  #420  
Old 20-08-2014, 14:09
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MARKET NEWS
20 August 2014

EUR: be ready for data on Thursday


FXBAZOOKA.com - The euro area is due to release manufacturing & services PMIs for August tomorrow. This is the first report to signal whether sanctions against Russia – and Moscow's countersanctions – are dragging down activity further across the euro zone.

Still, as the analysts at RBC put it, it doesn’t really matter whether PMIs will be slightly up or down, because “the underlying pace of growth is fairly lackluster”.

Although PMI data represent the result of the purchasing managers’ survey and don’t always translate into output, they do help to spot the economic turning points. This spring the European PMIs were declining and although they are mostly above the critical 50 level, the economic picture for the euro area looks discouraging.



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FX BAZOOKA - EUR: be ready for data on Thursday
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  #421  
Old 20-08-2014, 14:20
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MARKET NEWS
20 August 2014

FOMC minutes: what to expect


FXBAZOOKA.com - The FOMC meeting minutes are due today at 18:00 GMT.

Analysts at Standard Chartered think that any hawkish surprise (and, consequently, the positive effect for USD) in the FOMC July minutes is likely to be limited – the hawks already had the Philadelphia Fed President Plosser’s dissent and the accompanying statement.

The Fed’s forward guidance is that there will be a “considerable time” between the end of QE and the first rate hike. Standard Chartered says that the key in the minutes will be whether the FOMC is considering revising it. In their view, the central bank won’t say so and this phrase will remain in its statement after the next FOMC meeting in September as well, because the Fed realizes that to an earlier rate hike would mean to disappoint the market players which enjoy cheep financing in the US.

Analysts at RBC Capital Markets expect an overall dovish theme to persist, but warn that the Fed might be done with concerns about lower inflation – and this is a hawkish moment.

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FX BAZOOKA - FOMC minutes: what to expect
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  #422  
Old 20-08-2014, 23:50
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MARKET NEWS

Aug. 20: American session




Before the publication of minutes of meetings of the Fed's, index of the dollar dipped slightly with today's maximum 82.17. However, trades are in the green zone - the index adds about 0.17%.

Trading on the stock market opened slightly lower in the leading index. So, DJIA losing about 0.06%, while the S & P500 - 0.01%.

We remind you that the Fed minutes will be released today at 22:00 GMT.

Dollar strengthened against most world currencies. For example, EUR / USD pair dropped to the level of 1.3270, forming a new low of the year. Currency pair USD / CHF breaks above the 0.9100 figure, over which consolidation is currently going. USD / JPY has been restored to an important level 103.40 - daily uptrend will obviously continue. Surprisingly good indicators of industrial orders in the UK forced to recover a couple of GBP / USD, the rate of which today has jumped to around 1.6675. But at the beginning of the American session, the pair is consolidating in 1.6640.

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FX BAZOOKA - Aug. 20: American session
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  #423  
Old 21-08-2014, 12:42
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MARKET NEWS

Aug. 21: Asian session




FXBAZOOKA.com - US dollar is strong versus its peers as after the release of the FOMC meeting minutes traders increased bets the Fed will raise interest rates next year. Asian shares outside Japan fell for the first time in 9 days on lower Chinese data – MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index slid 0.7%.

USD/JPY rose to the levels just below 104.00. EUR/USD is trading in the $1.3240 area. GBP/USD slid to $1.6563.

Weaker-than-expected Chinese manufacturing PMI (50.3 vs. 51.5 expected) impacted the commodity currencies. The index came at its lowest level since April 2013. AUD/USD dipped to the $0.9235 support, testing the August lows. NZD/USD extends the decline, testing $0.8345 in Asia. XAU/USD fell to the 200-day MA ($1285).

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FX BAZOOKA - Aug. 21: Asian session
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  #424  
Old 21-08-2014, 13:09
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MARKET NEWS

Key option levels (Aug. 21)


FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3200 (large), $1.3260 (large), $1.3300 (large), $1.3340;

USD/JPY: 103.00 (large), 103.35 (large);

AUD/USD: $0.9250, $0.9290, $0.9350/60, $0.9375 (large);

USD/CAD: 1.0850 (large) 1.0945;

EUR/GBP: 0.7925 (large) 0.7985 0.8000 (large).

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FX BAZOOKA - Key option levels (Aug. 21)
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  #425  
Old 21-08-2014, 13:30
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MARKET NEWS
21 August 2014

Euro zone PMIs came out mixed


FXBAZOOKA.com - EUR/USD managed to recover to $1.3278 on better-than-expected German PMI data (52.0 vs. 51.7 in manufacturing and 56.4 vs. 55.5 in services). Note though, that although German readings exceeded expectations, they still retreated from July levels both in manufacturing and service sector. French services figures were also stronger (51.1 vs. 50.3), though France’s manufacturing PMI declined from 47.8 to 46.5.

However, the readings for the entire euro area were weaker than forecasts. The region’s flash manufacturing PMI slid from 51.8 to 50.8. The EMU PMI Composite came at 52.8 vs. 53.4 expected confirming the slowing of the euro zone economy.

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FX BAZOOKA - Euro zone PMIs came out mixed
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  #426  
Old 21-08-2014, 13:42
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MARKET NEWS
21 August 2014

GBP dipped on weak UK retail sales


FXBAZOOKA.com - GBP/USD dipped to $1.6570 after the UK retail sales report. Data showed consumption demand increased less than expected: 0.1% m/m and 2.6% y/y versus 0.4% m/m, and 3.0% y/y forecasted. Cable now holds slightly above the daily lows of $1.6563.

According to analysts at Scotiabank, GBP/USD looks for a test of the March 1.6460 low. All the technical studies warn for a downside risk.


Chart. Daily GBP/USD

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FX BAZOOKA - GBP dipped on weak UK retail sales
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  #427  
Old 22-08-2014, 01:16
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MARKET NEWS

Aug. 21: American session




Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst



In general, the positive data on applications for unemployment benefits for the past week (298 thousand, 300 thousand vs.) did not become a reason for strengthening of the dollar, which began to lose about 0.05% at the opening session. A little later, at 18:00 UT is expected to appear the statistics of the real estate market (existing home sales), as well as an index of manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia Fed data. Volatility in the markets at this time may become higher.

Traiding opened with a slight increase on the stock markets. Major indexes rised to 0.12%.

There are corrective movement in currency markets, after yesterday's growth of the dollar against world currencies. The EUR / USD pair grew to the level of 1.3270, forming a new low of 1.3240. Currency pair USD / CHF turned back to 0.9120 support, from which is going to resume its recovery. USD / JPY is consolidating just above 103.70 support. The pair GBP / USD is fixed under the figure of 1.6600, adjusting to the continuation of the downtrend.

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FX BAZOOKA - Aug. 21: American session
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  #428  
Old 22-08-2014, 15:41
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MARKET NEWS

Aug. 22: Asian session




Asian shares rose after reports from US housing to manufacturing showed that American economy is strengthening. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.2%. US dollar hovered just below its 2014 peak against a basket of major currencies with bulls turning cautious ahead of a speech by the Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen.

USD/JPY has stopped rising just below 104.00. EUR/USD edged up to $1.3290. GBP/USD is little changed in the $1.6580 area.

Commodity currencies found some support on Thursday. AUD/USD extended the upside to $0.9320 following the yesterday’s quick dip to $0.9235. NZD/USD rose to $0.8410. Gold price consolidates slightly above the yesterday’s low of $1272.

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FX BAZOOKA - Aug. 22: Asian session
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Old 23-08-2014, 00:51
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MARKET NEWS

Aug. 22: American Session




Tatiana Norkina, analyst at FBS

The US dollar index has slightly decreased before the speech of Chair of FRB Board of Governors J. Yellen, to 82.20, from today's high of 82.30, but the positive trend is still observed. We would like to remind that a little later, at 22:30 GMT+3, they expect a speech of ECB President M. Dragi which may affect the course of trading as well.

Stock markets are in the red zone today: DJIA is losing about 0.11%, S&P500 - 0.15%.

Currency markets are consolidating at the extremes. The EUR/USD was sliding to the 1.3255 level, but returned to the 1.3270 mark at the session opening. The GBP/USD currency pair is trading in the 1.6570-1.6590 range. Bears may increase the pressure in the near future. USD/CHF has tested the 0.9100 figure, but then rebounded to 0.9120. The USD/JPY currency pair has adjusted to the 103.50 mark, when the bullish sentiment prevailed on the market. At the moment, the pair is returning to the highs around 103.80.

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FX BAZOOKA - Aug. 22: American Session
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Old 25-08-2014, 13:26
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MARKET NEWS

Aug. 25: Asian session




Asian stocks swung between gains and losses amid low trading volume as investors weighed comments from central bank leaders for clues to monetary policy ahead of conflict negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.

USD/JPY opened with a gap up at 104.25. EUR/USD opened with a gap down at $1.3200 and then tested $1.3185. Euro fell as Mario Draghi’s comments raised prospects of more policy easing as early as next week. GBP/USD opened with a gap down at $1.6546 and the recovered to Friday’s lows in the $1.6565 area. There’s a bank holiday in the UK today.

AUD/USD recovered to $0.9310 after a quick dip to $0.9280 in early Asia. NZD/USD dropped by 60 pips, finding some support around $0.8330. Increased demand for AUD/NZD pressured the overall kiwi demand – the cross renewed the 2014 highs today. New Zealand election on September 20 is coming in focus.

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FX BAZOOKA - Aug. 25: Asian session
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Old 25-08-2014, 15:29
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MARKET NEWS

Key option levels (Aug. 25)


FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3250, $1.3300 (large), $1.3320/30, $1.3340 (large);

GBP/USD: $1.6640, $1.6700;

USD/JPY: 103.35 (large), 103.50 (large), 104.00 (large);

AUD/USD: $0.9275, $0.9350;

USD/CAD: 1.0925, 1.0975, 1.1010;

EUR/CHF: 1.2100.

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FX BAZOOKA - Key option levels (Aug. 25)
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Old 25-08-2014, 15:40
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MARKET NEWS
25 August 2014

CFTC: USD longs at July 2013 highs


FXBAZOOKA.com - According to the latest CFTC report, released on Aug. 22, large speculators increased their net USD longs from $27.00 billion on Aug. 12 to $30.4 billion on Aug. 19 (+$3.4 billion). The overall US dollar bullish position is now at the highest level since June 4 2013. The calculation considers the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.


Last week large speculators raised demand for CHF and AUD and decreased - for EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD and NZD.



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FX BAZOOKA - CFTC: USD longs at July 2013 highs
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Old 25-08-2014, 15:55
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MARKET NEWS
25 August 2014

Jackson Hole and its message


At the end of the last week global central bankers led by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen met in Jackson Hole. Even it’s clear that though monetary policies in the advanced economies are set to diverge, the policymakers underlined that they focus on the labor market conditions. All agreed that stronger hiring and wages are still needed to drive demand.



Federal Reserve

Yellen said while US hiring has improved and the debate at the Fed is shifting toward when “we should begin dialing back our extraordinary accommodation,” there is still a “significant” underuse of the workforce, and the labor market has yet to fully recover from the worst recession since the Great Depression. Yellen argued that the Fed must assess the health of the job market on more indicators than just the unemployment rate citing the Fed’s Labor Market Conditions Index, which includes 19 data points. The speeches of the other FOMC members showed that opinions of the FOMC members are divided: Bullard, George and Plosser spoke in favor of an earlier rate hike, while Lockhart and Williams don’t want to hurry.

Bank of England

Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent suggested rate increases there will be gradual as he said officials “have tried to communicate that the path of interest rates that’s likely to be necessary to meet our mandate is going to be materially different” than in the past. Broadbent used the conference to argue the financial crisis has changed the economic landscape and central banks must now consult labor-market data to better assess inflation.

European Central Bank

According to President Mario Draghi, the ECB is ready to further adjust its policy stance. Draghi at last admitted inflation expectations declined. Nevertheless, he expressed confidence his current package of policies would work and urged governments to step up with easier fiscal policies where possible.

Bank of Japan

Governor Kuroda said that he will keep policy easy until price stability is achieved and would shift tack if inflation softens. While Japanese labor market is “showing significant improvement,” there are still “important challenges to be addressed” in the form of weak wage growth and a reliance on part-time work. Japan may consider “utilization of foreign workers” to address potential labor force shortages in the future.

Bank of Canada

Governor Stephen Poloz said that his country’s labor market isn’t creating the full-time jobs and income that could be expected in a recovery, handing him scope to keep interest rates near historic lows.

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FX BAZOOKA - Jackson Hole and its message
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Old 25-08-2014, 23:48
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MARKET NEWS

Aug. 25: American Session




Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst


Index of the dollar today jumped to the level of 82.65, keeping the reaction to Friday's speech of Fed Dzh.Yellen. At the beginning of the American session, index adds about 0.24%.

Stock markets opened in the positive positions, renewing highs due to gepapa: DJIA adds about 0.55%, while the S & P500 - about 0.46%.

The currency pair EUR / USD remains under pressure from the bears, trading under the figure of 1.3200. GBP / USD today corrected to 1.6600, but in the opening of the session fell to 1.6580. USD / CHF has issued a new yearly high 0.9177 this morning, and then corrected to 0.9150 support. Currency pair USD / JPY is struggling to stay above the figure of 104.00.

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FX BAZOOKA - Aug. 25: American Session
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Old 26-08-2014, 14:53
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MARKET NEWS

Aug. 26: Asian session




Asian shares swung between gains and losses on Tuesday. On the one hand, investors increasingly expect the ECB to expand liquidity as soon as next week. The mood in the market was supported by the S&P 500, which briefly topped the 2,000 mark for the first time in history on Monday. On the other hand, market players sought haven assets before the presidents of Russia and Ukraine meet today.

USD/JPY declined to 103.74. Yen rose as technical indicators signaled the currency’s recent decline was too rapid. AUD/USD dipped to $0.9270. NZD/USD dipped to $0.8309. New Zealand’s dollar fell to the lowest in six months after the nation’s trade balance slipped into deficit.

EUR/USD keeps trading in the $1.3200 area. German 10-year yields hit a record low of 0.926%, before pulling back to 0.95%. GBP/USD edged up to the levels just below $1.6600.

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FX BAZOOKA - Aug. 26: Asian session
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Old 26-08-2014, 15:38
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MARKET NEWS

Key option levels (Aug. 26)


FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3185, $1.3250, $1.3300;

USD/JPY: 103.00 (large), 103.25;

AUD/USD: 0.9225 (large), 0.9250, 0.9300 (large), 0.9325 (large);

USD/CAD: 1.0900 (large), 1.0985/1.1000;

NZD/USD: 0.8350, 0.8400;

EUR/GBP: 0.7915, 0.7970 (large), 0.7980, 0.8050;

EUR/JPY: 138.00.

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FX BAZOOKA - Key option levels (Aug. 26)
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26 August 2014

French government was dissolved


The French government was dissolved on Monday amid turmoil among top ministers.

It happened as from Economy Minister Arnaud Montebourg called for a major reorientation of economic policy in a country where growth has stalled and unemployment remains high. Montebourg’s comments were seen as a challenge to the authority of President Francois Hollande and Prime Minister Manuel Valls. Hollande asked Valls to form a new government, which will be announced on Tuesday.

Francois Hollande has the record low approval ratings of any French President. Valls’ popularity has also declined in recent opinion polls.

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FX BAZOOKA - French government was dissolved
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Old 26-08-2014, 16:08
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MARKET NEWS
26 August 2014

US data: preview


Analysts at RBS expect a surge in the US durable goods orders (due today at 12:30 GMT). The specialists say that the reason for this is a temporary surge in civilian aircraft orders. They expect a 9.0% m/m gain of the headline reading in July, but warn that the core orders may be flat dampening the positive impact. In addition, RBS expects that there will be a modest decline in the US confidence index (14:00 GMT) because of the slightly higher unemployment rate.

Rabobank points out that the expectations for durable goods are high, but this indicators used to disappoint the market so far.



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FX BAZOOKA - US data: preview
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Old 26-08-2014, 23:55
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MARKET NEWS

Aug. 26: American Session




Tatiana Norkina, analyst at FBS

American trading session has opened relatively calmly today. US dollar index has decreased slightly (to -0.10%) after release of quite weak data on orders for durable goods (-0.8%, instead of the forecast 0.5%).

Stock markets are showing a slight increase. DJIA index is adding about 0.21%, S&P500 - 0.17%.

Currency markets are consolidating on yesterday's levels. Thus, the EUR/USD pair is still trading below the 1.3200 figure. The GBP/USD pair has once again come up to 1.6600, but the bulls are having difficulty breaking through the level. USD/CHF is recovering to the 0.9160 resistance and the bulls have an opportunity to resume the uptrend. Bearish pressure is as well being felt on the USD/JPY currency pair which has remained under the 104.00 figure today.

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FX BAZOOKA - Aug. 26: American Session
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Old 27-08-2014, 00:12
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MARKET NEWS

The 26th of August: American Session




Tatiana Norkina, an analyst of FBS Company


Today the American trading session was opened relatively quietly. The US dollar index fell slightly down ( to -0.10%) after publishing generally weak information about orders for durable goods (-0.8% instead of the forecasting 0.5%).

Stock markets show a slight runup. DJIA index adds about 0.21% and S & P500 - 0.17%.

Currency markets are consolidated on yesterday's levels. Thus, the pair EUR / USD is still trading below 1.3200 figure. As to the currency pair GBP / USD, it has increased to 1.6600 oce again, however bulls have difficulties with the handle violation. USD / CHF has restored the resistance level of 0.9160 and bulls are able to resume the uptrend. Though the bearish pressure is still felt in the case of the pair USD / JPY, that was traded under the figure of 104.00 that day.

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FX BAZOOKA - The 26th of August: American Session
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