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  #4041  
Old 31-01-2017, 11:41
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Key option levels for Tuesday, January 31st
1/31/2017

EUR/USD



Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest - 3 339 ? - 104 688 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0711; 1.0734; 1.0751; 1.0777
Closest support levels 1.0692; 1.0673; 1.0642; 1.0620
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0692, with target points at 1.0673 and 1.0642
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0711 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0734 and 1.0751

USD/JPY



Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 452 ? + 839 ?
Closest resistance levels 113.66; 113.93; 114.16; 114.50
Closest support levels 113.46; 113.26; 112.89; 112.49
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short USD/JPY below 113.46, with target points at 113.26 and 112.89
Alternative scenario Moving above 113.66 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 113.93 and 114.16

USD/CAD



Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 121 ? + 41 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3125; 1.3153; 1.3200; 1.3222
Closest support levels 1.3089; 1.3065; 1.3026; 1.3002
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3125, with the target points at 1.3153 and 1.3200
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3089 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3065 and 1.3026

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12262
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  #4042  
Old 31-01-2017, 12:02
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USD/CAD: bears are testing the support
1/31/2017

On the USD/CAD daily chart, quotes came closer to the lower boundary of the ascending trading channel. If it is tested successfully, the prices can move lower towards 1.2977 (23.6% Fibo level of the last downward long-term wave), and towards 1,284 (88.6% target in the "Double top" pattern). In contrast, the rebound from the lower boundary of ascending trading channel can lead to the consolidation.



On the USD/CAD hourly chart, an activation of the AB = CD pattern followed by the breakout of the support located at 1.3035 can lead to the drop of the quotes to 224% target of the AB=CD pattern. The nearest resistance levels are located near 1,318 and 1,322 marks.



Recommendation: BUY 1,3035 SL 1,2980 TP1 1,318 TP2 1,322.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12263
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  #4043  
Old 31-01-2017, 12:06
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Morning brief for January 31
1/31/2017

Price action in currencies has been a bit muted with JPY and GBP the two exceptions. It was the BOJ’s announcement day. The Bank of Japan stood pat and remain fairly committed to its yield curve control and other expansionary policies; extended deadline for loan program aimed at boosting lending, supporting industries. Inflation expectations are the same, not upbringing. USD/JPY slumped to 113.45.

EUR/USD edged up to 1.0700 on the broad weakening of the greenback. The US yields dipped on Monday. Later today, ECB president Draghi will be speaking in Frankfurt on Europe’s digital integrate market (the speech shouldn’t be market-moving). CPI figures and EU preliminary Q4 GDP are to produce a much greater effect. If CPI data indicates an uptick in inflation rates, it will increase calls for an early end to the ECB’s asset purchase program and push the euro higher.

USD/CAD slid to 1.3090 in the course of the past session mainly on the risk-averse investors’ sentiments. Market participants are becoming extremely worried as Mr. Trump seems to be serious about putting his controversial campaign pledges into action. This anxiety spread to the stock market and became a drag on the stock market. Other explanations hardly can be found. Brent oil futures are moving lower. Today’s focus will on the Canadian monthly GDP and raw material price index coming at 15:30 MT time.

GBP/USD spearheaded on Tuesday taking advantage of the US dollar’s weakness. There might be a bit of payback from the greenback if US consumer confidence release is strong.

Aussie and kiwi extended their gains against the US dollar. AUD/USD moved to 0.7560. NZD/USD rose above 0.7290 level. Later today we will receive the labor market data from New Zealand (employment change and unemployment rate).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12264
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  #4044  
Old 31-01-2017, 12:10
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EUR/USD: bulls going to test the nearest resistance
1/31/2017



The price faced a support on the 89 Moving Average, so we’ve got a “V-Bottom” here. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the nearest support at 1.0719 – 1.0745 in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline towards a support between the 89 MA and the level 1.0624.



We’ve got a “V-Bottom”, so the price is consolidating. In this case, we should keep an eye on the nearest resistance at 1.0739 – 1.0745 as a possible intraday target. However, if we have a pullback from this area, bears will probably try to achieve a support at 1.0678 – 1.0669 afterwards.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12265
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  #4045  
Old 31-01-2017, 12:14
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GBP/USD: "Pennant" led to another decline
1/31/2017



The pair found a support on the 34 Moving Average, so there’s a “V-Bottom” pattern. Under this circumstances, the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance between the levels 1.2548 – 1.2581. Considering the previously formed “V-Top” pattern, bears will probably try to achieve a support at 1.2432 later on.



There’s a “V-Bottom”, which has been formed under the 89 Moving Average. So, the price is consolidating. It’s likely that the pair is going to reach the nearest resistance at 1.2548 – 1.2581 during the day. If a pullback from these levels happens, there’ll be a chance to have another decline in the direction of the next support at 1.2465 – 1.2432.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12266
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  #4046  
Old 31-01-2017, 12:18
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EUR/USD: euro returned to SSA
1/31/2017

Technical levels: support – 1.0690; resistance – 1.0715, 1.0770.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.0700; SL — 1.0680; TP1 — 1.0770; TP2 – 1.0810.

2. Sell — 1.0670; SL — 1.0690; TP1 — 1.0605; TP2 – 1.0560.

Reason: bullish but narrowing Ichimoku Cloud; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; all the lines of Ichimoku Indicator are horizontal; the prices are under resistance of Senkou Span A.



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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12267
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  #4047  
Old 31-01-2017, 12:27
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GBP/USD: going to the Cloud
1/31/2017

Technical levels: support – 1.2420, 1.2490; resistance – 1.2530, 1.2570.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.2490; SL — 1.2470; TP1 — 1.2530; TP2 — 1.2570.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are under Tenkan and Kijun, but supported by the Cloud.



More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12268
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  #4048  
Old 31-01-2017, 12:37
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USD/TRY: short- and medium-term outlook
1/31/2017

The lira fell to the record minimum on January 11 becoming the worst performing emerging market currencies. The nation’s currency was hit by investors’ heightened risk sentiments that aroused as a result of insecurity, political uncertainty, and economic slowdown. A string of terror attacks in Turkey, worries about political instability followed by July coup d'état attempt have sent Turkish lira lower. S&P and Fitch had to downgrade Turkey’s credit rating in the aftermath of the listed events. No wonder, the lira slumped to historical lows under such pressure.

Turkey’s central bank decided to get things under control and recourse to monetary policy tightening to revive the lira’s exchange rate. On January 24, the Monetary Policy Committee raised its overnight lending interest rate by 75 basis points to 9.25 % and promised to tighten further if needed to offset the impact of the lira’s devaluation on inflation. But this measure didn’t help lira to pare its losses against the greenback, as market participants expected more from the Turkish central bank (traders were hoping for the sharp benchmark repo rate hike).

On January 30, Turkish lira managed to firm by more than 1% as investors partially shrugged off sovereign debt downgrades by credit rating agencies amid central bank’s attempts to tighten liquidity. The recent weakening of the US dollar following the inaction of Trump’s protectionist orders has also played into the hands of lira. Many believe that Turkish central bank will have to undertake even more tightening measures to push the lira higher. If they succeed the lira will hold its current positions against the greenback for a while. But in the longer term, as soon as Trump’s administration introduces its fiscal stimulus, the lira is poised to resume devaluation.

Short-term projections are neutral; USD/TRY will continue its consolidative movement in the narrow range of 3.7700 (Jan. 30 low)/3.7349 (Jan. 24 low) – 3.8245 (the border of Ichimoku cloud on the H4 timeframe). Next week can offer modest support for the lira, if the Fed takes a non-hawkish stance at its meeting (it could be the case, as there is still no signs of Trump’s expansionary fiscal policy on the horizon; weak NFP and labor market releases should cool the Fed’s eagerness to raise interest rates). Return below 3.7160 (Jan. 13 low) is needed to signal the uptrend reversal.



More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12270
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  #4049  
Old 31-01-2017, 12:43
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News trading strategies
1/31/2017

You can snatch a large sum of money trading news. By news, we mean various economic data releases. However, if you don’t have a solid plan for trading a particular event, it’s better not to engage in any trades at all as erratic disorderly price movements may drain your pocket faster than a flash in the pan. In this article, we will get to the bottom of trading on news and economic releases.



Trading using economic releases

The markets tend to price in future economic growth and prosperity. As rule of thumb, economic growth means future prosperity which then equals to a strengthening of the currency. The traders look for these upticks in economic growth (positive economic releases) as they usually offer opportunities to jump on an uptrend. In contrast, economic reports showing a slack in economic growth result in the weakening of the currency.

The economic calendar is the key tool that helps traders not to miss important events.

The key principle – the future value of the currency is defined based on whether the actual data hits, misses or exceeds consensus forecast. The consensus is the mean of estimates from a number of experts, market analysts who have been polled prior to the publication of a particular release. If the actual data doesn’t match the forecast (the figures we got are worse than we expected), the currency depreciates. A number that is close to our forecast has usually negligible effect, and if the headline of the report exceeds the market’s expectations the currency appreciates.

Tips:

focus on the most important news that could produce the greatest effect on the market;
wait for the publication of the chosen release, and then dive into trade according to the plan;
the market’s reaction lasts from 30 min up to 2 hours;
if your fundamental reasoning, technical analysis fail to realize, and the market’s reaction to the news doesn’t match your expectation; you should follow the market trend (probably you missed some important details in your analysis, or misinterpreted the effect of a given release upon its publication);
don’t rush into trade; wait for really strong signals and their confirmation.
In this article, we fill you in on three strategies that can be used for trading the news.

Slingshot strategy



The slingshot strategy seeks to scale out of winning positions as the trade moves in the trader’s favor. Before opening the position, identify support and resistance. These are your “cut points” with which you can close off the position if prices go against you. Authors of the strategy advice to define stop distance on the position prior to the publication of the report.

If you see that prices go in your favor, but you’re not sure how long it will last, you may scale out your position and wait for prices go in the same direction. You can repeat the same procedure until the trend reversal.



But beware of the volatility!

If you’re trading in a highly volatile market, spreads can widen so quickly, that your stops can be triggered before prices begin trending. This could be disastrous for your bet. Imagine you decided to go EUR/USD long with 15 pip stop, if spread widens out to 30 pips, this will trigger your stop loss and actually won’t bring you much harm. But what if prices go up 150 pips and you haven’t got a remaining position even though your initial guess on price movements was right? Well, this wouldn’t work well for you as in such a case you would be fooled by a false breakout. Unfortunately, it’s not in our powers to define how widely the spreads may spike.

In order to reduce the risk of false breakout during the highly volatile period of news releases you can do the following thing: once you notice on H1 chart that the price is 10 pips below the key support (or above the key resistance level), a put a stop entry order 10 pips above (or below) that key level. This way you will be able to benefit on the market’s reversal after some initial swing.


Trading on expectations: buy the rumor, sell the fact



The idea is very straightforward: you should understand the market’s sentiment in relation to a particular currency and then open position according to the direction of this sentiment. There are short-term and long-term market sentiments. Regular traders prefer trading in a short period of time, as they don’t have sufficient amount of money to maintain open positions in the periods of high volatility.

Short-term sentiment is defined by economic news. If market participants expect the data to exceed the consensus forecast, they will try to take this into consideration. For example, if market participants wait for the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise its interest rate, the exchange rate of AUD will be rising before the bank’s meeting (the probable rate hikes will be well priced in by the time the actual RBA meeting takes place). Once the RBA raised its interest rate, those market participants that had been ready for such turn of affairs would probably start selling AUD/USD and the pair would actually decline after the rate hike.

In order to be better off in such situation, you need:

To be up-to-date on the forthcoming events and economic releases.
To keep track of the recent economic releases and watch for the market’s reaction.
To know the correlation between various news releases (for example, how retail sales may influence GDP, PPI, CPI, ext.; if retail sales go ahead of market’s expectation, we may wait for a strong GDP release).
Trading spikes

This strategy can be applied when you trade on the very important news or economic releases such as Non-Farm Employment Change (Non-Farm Payrolls – NFP). It’s one of the most influential statistic indicators published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It measures the number of jobs created in the nonfarm sector in the US in a month. NFP is usually released on the first Friday every month.

Nonfarm payrolls may send lots of shockwaves to the technical charts. That’s why many traders prefer to wait for the dust to settle (they don’t rush into the trade right after the announcement) and trade when they grasp a better idea of the effect the data has produced.

Your actions before the release: look at the range in which the pair is trading at the present moment, then in 5 minutes before the release place two pending orders (BUY STOP – 20 pips above the current price and SELL STOP – 20 pips below the current price).

Place take profit 40 pips above and below the current price. You can place your stop loss at the current price in 5 minutes before the release or choose not to place it at all. In the case of the favorable outcome, you can close the deal with profit (don’t forget to close another order). If you are lucky you can make money from both of your bets (if prices change their direction and go higher/lower, before falling/rising). If the outcome is negative, the prices will move in the one of the direction, open the first order, but fail to reach your take profit. Then, prices will move in the opposite direction, open another order, but won’t reach the take profit level. If you have a stop, your losses will be limited. If you didn’t place any stops upon your entry, you can try to compensate your losses by opening new orders.

July 8, 2016

On that day US NFP added 287K (the forecast was 175K). However, the unemployment rate increased more than expected (from 4.7% to 4.9%), that's why there was such volatile and contradictory reaction in EUR/USD.



More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12274
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  #4050  
Old 31-01-2017, 12:49
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EUR/USD: consolidation going to move on
1/31/2017



We’ve got a possible “Piercing Line” on the 55 Moving Average, but a confirmation of this pattern is a quite weak, because the lower “Window” is acting as a support. So, the market is likely going to test the 34 Moving Average, which could be a departure point for another bullish price movement.



The nearest “Window” is acting as a support, so we’ve got a “Harami” pattern on this level. Therefore, there’s an opportunity to have a local correction, but bulls will probably try to deliver a new local high afterwards.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12275
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  #4051  
Old 31-01-2017, 12:55
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USD/JPY: bulls going to test "Window"
1/31/2017



The lower “Window” acted as a support twice, so we’ve got a “Three methods” pattern. Also, there’re a “Hammer” and an “Engulfing” at the local low. If these patterns confirm, the price is likely going to test the nearest resistance level.



The last “Window” remains open, but we’ve got a “Doji” at the local low. Considering a confirmation of this pattern, the market is likely going to reach the 34 & 89 Moving Averages, which could be a departure point for a local decline.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12276
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  #4052  
Old 31-01-2017, 13:36
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Life lessons from Nick Leeson
1/31/2017

Once upon a time, there was a whiz kid, very talented fella, who first managed to deserve the confidence of worldly-wise Barings bank’s bigshots, and then, incurred huge losses on them with his speculative trades. This article is dedicated to the rogue trader named Nick Leeson known for trading the Barings bank out of existence.



Nick grew up in the ordinary working class family with no money and connections. By 1990s, he managed to become a really valuable employee at Barings bank as he brought large profits betting on the future direction of the Nikkei Index. His bosses trusted him implicitly, knowing that this smart young genius is unbeatable and infallible in his guesses.

Life lesson №1 – people with positive self-esteem and gift of gab are proved to be successful.

In 1992, Leeson began making unauthorized speculative trades that very soon turned sour. Leeson had to open a secret account numbered 88888 (the lucky number in Chinese numerology, by the way) to cover his losses from the company.

Life lesson №2 – don’t be superstitious and never trust pseudoscience’s assurances

Trying to rectify past losses, Nick continued making speculative trades and turned its “lucky account” in the red by alarmingly 208 million pounds. Barings executives were still kept in the dark of Leeson’s scam. On January 16, 1995, Nick placed a short straddle (a very risky trading strategy) in the Tokyo and Singapore stock exchanges. But fortune paid a low-down trick with Nick; the next day, the Great Hanshin Earthquake struck and ruined Leeson’s plan to recoup his losses trading risky assets. Nick’s second attempt to turn account 88888 in green ended with a fizzle.



Life lesson №3 – don’t have a high aspiration for yourself and don’t push on the luck; remember of fate's perversity. Trade wisely and cautiously, and don’t walk into the same water twice.



On February 23, 1995, Leeson decided that the situation was beyond his control and that he would never redeem himself (oh, finally). So, he fled with his wife, leaving an innocent note, “I’m sorry”. Very soon, Barings executive discovered what he had done. But it was too late. Barings, the personal bank to the Queen of England known for its solid reputation went bust. Nick Leeson was captured and put behind the bars in Singapore for his fraud. His wife found work as a stewardess to have a chance to see his beloved husband regularly. But their marriage started to bulge at the seams. The last straw was Leeson’s infidelity with Geisha girls. So, his wife divorced with Nick immediately.

Life lesson №4 – don’t cheat on your wives

In 1999, Leeson was diagnosed with colon cancer. After that, he was released from prison and went back to the native land where he underwent chemotherapy having lost his hair and weight. Nick hadn’t got work, home, relatives, the family that could support him in times of need. But he managed to survive and kill his illness. Very soon, he married again, found a job in prestigious Galway United Football Club as a commercial manager, published numerous books and became successful once again.

Life lesson №5 – never give up; be a survivor; if you are given a second chance, grab it with both hands.



More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12277
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  #4053  
Old 31-01-2017, 15:24
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NZD/JPY reversed from resistance zone
1/31/2017

NZD/JPY reversed from resistance zone
Next sell target – 82.00
NZD/JPY recently reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the strong resistance level 83.60 (which earlier reversed the previous sharp intermediate impulse wave (3) with the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Evening Star) and the upper daily Bollinger Band. The downward reversal from this resistance zone stopped the previous minor impulse wave (iii).

NZD/JPY is expected to fall toward the next sell target at the support level 82.00, intersecting with the 50% Fibonacci correction level of the previous upward impulse from the end of December.



More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12278
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  #4054  
Old 31-01-2017, 15:31
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GBP/CAD falling inside minor impulse wave 3
1/31/2017

GBP/CAD falling inside minor impulse wave 3
Next sell target - 1.6000
GBP/CAD continues to fall inside the minor impulse wave 3, which started earlier – when the pair reversed down from the resistance area lying between the resistance level 1.6620 (which also stopped the previous waves (iv) and (b), as can be seen below) and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction level of the previous sharp minor impulse wave 1 from the middle of November.

The downward reversal from the aforementioned resistance zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Dark Cloud Cover. GBP/CAD is likely to fall further toward the next sell target at the support level 1.6000.



More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12279
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  #4055  
Old 01-02-2017, 15:57
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Key option levels for Wednesday, February 1st
2/1/2017

* Data about changes in the open interest will be available on Wednesday after 01:45 CT (Central Time) *

EUR/USD



Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 24 213 ? + 62 191 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0826; 1.0855; 1.0880; 1.0896
Closest support levels 1.0782; 1.0751; 1.0730; 1.0704
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long EUR/USD above 1.0826, with target points at 1.0855 and 1.0880
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.0782 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.0751 and 1.0730

USD/JPY



Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 937 ? + 1 038 ?
Closest resistance levels 113.13; 113.43; 113.64; 114.14
Closest support levels 112.17; 111.88; 111.43; 110.84
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 113.13, with target points at 113.43 and 113.64
Alternative scenario Moving below 112.17 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 111.88 and 111.43

USD/CAD



Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 343 ? + 460 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3108; 1.3132; 1.3163/73; 1.3193
Closest support levels 1.3016; 1.3001; 1.2982; 1.2945
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3108, with the target points at 1.3132 and 1.3163
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3016 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3001 and 1.2982

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12282
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  #4056  
Old 01-02-2017, 16:05
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Brent is on the ledge
2/1/2017

On the daily chart of Brent, there is a consolidation in the range of $53,75-57,25 within the ascending trading channel. The bulls will continue to keep the situation under control until prices fall below support at $48.



On the hourly chart of Brent futures, there is a formation of the "Splash and ledge" pattern based on the 1-2-3. The combination of this pattern with the "Three Indians" pattern is a serious reversal formation. A breakout of the support at $53.75 can lead to the correction towards $51. In contrast, a successful test of the resistance at $57.37 will increase the likelihood of the restoration of the "bullish" trend.



Recommendation:

BUY $57,37 SL $55,45 TP $60,8,

SELL $53,75 SL $55,45 TP $51.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12283
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  #4057  
Old 01-02-2017, 16:09
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GBP/USD: bulls are willing to restore the trend
2/1/2017

On the GBP/USD daily chart, a short-term correction towards the "bullish" trend allowed to form an upward trading channel. The pound will have to fulfill 88.6% target in the "Crab" inverted pattern. A breakout of the resistance at 1,261 (78.6% Fibo level of the last mid-term downward wave) will facilitate its fulfillment.



On the GBP/USD hourly chart, a rebound from the support at 1,241 (38.2% Fibo level of the last upward wave) was the signal that the correction is completed. To restore the "bullish" trend buyers need to test the resistance at 1,261.



Recommendation: BUY 1,261 SL 1,2555 TP 1,271.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12284
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  #4058  
Old 01-02-2017, 16:12
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Morning brief for February 1
2/1/2017

EUR/USD firmed significantly overnight having risen to 1.0790. It was the market’s knee-jerk reaction to the latest statements from the Trump’s administration. US President and his trade adviser Peter Navarro criticized Germany, China, and Japan for their depredatory and unfair monetary policies aiming at the devaluation of domestic currencies. Sensitivity over the greenback’s strength is becoming an issue and could come into Fed calculations. Market participants don’t expect fireworks from today’s FOMC meeting. The market is pricing barely a 20% change of the rate hike at the upcoming meeting. We would recommend you to focus on the Fed’s wording; there might be given some clues on the timing of the next lift in rates. There are also the ISM Manufacturing report and ADP NFP coming from the US before the FOMC statement.

Japan’s yen gained more than 1% overnight on the broad weakening of the US dollar after Trump and Navarro unleashed a barrage of criticism against its major trading partners. USD/JPY slumped to 112.03 yesterday, but then it partially recouped its losses in the course of the Asian session having risen to 113.10. Unless USD manages 113.95 on the session, we expect the downside movement.

Aussie tested 0.7600 level yesterday but failed to develop consolidation there. At the present moment, it almost gave back its yesterday’s gains in the pair with USD.

Kiwi spiked to 0.7350 overnight but then slid back to 0.7270 on the Asian session.

USD/CAD gathered a bullish momentum trying to rectify its yesterday’s losses and advanced to 1.3077. Oil prices dipped on Wednesday under pressure of the ongoing high supplies. Brent futures were trading lower at $55.40 in the course of the past session. Today’s focus will on the US crude oil inventories that might offer modest support to oil prices (the consensus forecast indicates a slight drop in the US inventories).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12285
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  #4059  
Old 01-02-2017, 16:17
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EUR/USD: bullish "Pennant"
2/1/2017



The 89 Moving Average acted as a support, so we’ve got a “V-Bottom” pattern, which led to the current consolidation. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the nearest resistance at 1.0815 – 1.0850 in the short term. If a pullback from this area happens later on, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline towards the next support at 1.0774 – 1.0745.



The price faced a resistance at 1.0815, but we’ve got a “Pennant” pattern. In this case, bulls are likely going to test an area between the levels 1.0815 – 1.0830 during the day. However, if we see a pullback from these levels, bears will probably try to test the closest support at 1.0795 – 1.0774.

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  #4060  
Old 01-02-2017, 16:20
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GBP/USD: bulls going to test the last high
2/1/2017



The pair found a support on the 55 Moving Average, so a “V-Bottom” pattern has been formed. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach a resistance at 1.2619 – 1.2675 shortly. At the same time, if bulls be stopped by these levels, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline towards a support at 1.2581 – 1.2548.



There’s a “V-Bottom”, so the price achieved a resistance at 1.2581. Meanwhile, we’ve got a “Pennant”, so bulls are likely going to reach the next resistance at 1.2639 – 1.2674 during the day. If a pullback from these levels happens, bears will probably try to push the market towards a support at 1.2581 – 1.2548.

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  #4061  
Old 01-02-2017, 16:26
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EUR/USD: euro going higher
2/1/2017

Technical levels: support – 1.0760; resistance – 1.0810, 1.0900.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.0760; SL — 1.0740; TP1 — 1.0810; TP2 – 1.0900.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud; a cancelled dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; all the lines of Ichimoku Indicator are horizontal; the prices are on the new local highs.



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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12288
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  #4062  
Old 01-02-2017, 16:31
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AUD/USD: ready to start
2/1/2017

Technical levels: support – 0.7560/70; resistance – 0.7610.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7560; SL — 0.7540; TP1 — 0.7610; TP2 — 0.7660.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but falling Senkou Span A; a new golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and falling lines; the prices are supported by the Cloud.



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  #4063  
Old 01-02-2017, 16:38
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Banks peeked into the FOMC statement and saw that…
2/1/2017



The FOMC meeting is due at 21:00 MT time. The banks scrambled to express their views on the wording of the statement and possible US dollar’s reaction.

Most of the analysts believe that the FOMC will likely keep its policy unchanged holding rates at the 50-75bp range and making only modest revision to the December statement.

Credit Agricole strategists note that Chair Yellen in her last speech said that there are few signs that the US labor market is overheated, which means that the Fed shouldn’t be in hurry to raise its benchmark preferring to adopt a wait-and-see approach. Next Friday’s NFP release should be a bigger driver for the US currency rather than today’s meeting, according to the bank’s analysts.

BofA Merrill doesn’t expect the fireworks from the FOMC meeting but waits for some “hawkish” revisions to the statement. The bank’s strategists believe that the FOMC members will highlight the heightened activity in labor market and note that confidence measures have improved. Also, they wait for the confirmation for a March rate hike which if received should steepen the greenback’s path.

SocGen analysts expect a minor reaction from the market participants to the upcoming FOMC meeting. According to them, Trump's immigration policy and Friday’s NFP data will be key drivers for the US dollar this week. They suggest going long EUR/JPY. With the BoJ refusing to change its loosening monetary policy stance and adhering to its long-term yield target; the recent strengthening of the euro, it looks like a good trading idea.

AUD should be also taken into consideration. Australia looks a haven of calm at the present moment. GBP is poised to trade sideways as the debate on the Brexit bill is still going on.

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  #4064  
Old 01-02-2017, 16:43
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Your volatility calendar for February
2/1/2017



FOMC Meeting

February 1, 21:00 MT time

The FOMC decision on the federal funds rate and the corresponding statement are due at 21:00 MT time.

The policy of the Federal Reserve is extremely important for the dynamics of the US dollar. This is the first Fed’s meeting since Donald Trump officially became the US president. According to the forecasts made in December, the FOMC members were aiming at 3 rate hikes at 2017. However, the Fed’s chairwoman Janet Yellen in her recent speech said that she can’t be precise about the timing of interest-rate hikes. No policy changes are expected this time, but traders will still pay great attention to the central bank’s statement looking for hints about its future plans. If the Fed confirms its intention to raise rates this year, the greenback will strengthen, but if the regulator sounds cautious, the US currency will decline.



Bank of England’s meeting

February 2, 14:00 MT time

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee will announce its interest rate decision at 14:00 MT time. This event is of paramount importance for the pound’s value. Traders keep in focus this event striving to forecast the future exchange rate of the sterling.

The central bank is not expected to change its monetary policy, but comments of its Governor about the rising inflation will be important. If Mark Carney acknowledges the strength of British economy, the pound will get a short-term boost. If Carney, on the contrary, underlines that uncertainty about the nation’s economic future is still present, the pound will keep snapping its recent recovery.



US Nonfarm Payrolls

February 3, 15:30 MT time

Nonfarm payrolls are scheduled to be released at 15:30 MT time.

The report will reveal the number of jobs created in the United States in January. It is one of the major currency drivers as it allows us to assess the overall health of the US economy. The release often provokes great movements in Forex majors.



RBA Meeting

February 7, 05:30 MT time

Traders will be able to get insights about the Reserve Bank of Australia’s current and future monetary policy at 5:30 MT time. The RBA monetary policy directly affects the exchange rate of Australian dollar, so those who prefer trading Aussie should beware of the upcoming event.

RBNZ Rate Statement

February 8, 22:00 MT time

Reserve Bank of New Zealand is due to announce its interest rate at 22:00 MT time. Last time RBNZ lowered its official cash rate by a quarter point to 1.75% and promised to stay on hold in the near term until New Zealand’s economy needs additional stimulus. The kiwi is very sensitive to this sort of events. So, don’t miss to capitalize on the RBNZ rate announcement this time!



Japanese Preliminary GDP

February 13, 01:50 MT time

Japan’s preliminary GDP for the fourth quarter will be released at 01:50 MT time. Preliminary GDP is the earliest indicator of the country’s economic health. Therefore, it tends to have the biggest impact on the national currency.

All in all, the reading should be fine: stronger December Nikkei PMI suggests that the overall rate of economic growth will have accelerated in Q4 from the 0.3% expansion seen in 3 months to September. JPY should appreciate on stronger data.



US CPI

February 15, 15:30 MT time

Inflation is crucial for the US dollar’s valuation. Heightened inflation rates represent a reason for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in order to maintain the prices stable. US CPI (Consumer Price Index) is closely watched by the Fed’s officials. Any significant deviation from the norm can lead to rate hikes, while lower figures, on the contrary, would disappoint USD bulls. That’s why traders need to keep track of American CPI.



Australian Employment Change & Unemployment Rate

February 16, 02:30 MT time

This is a vital piece of economic data that directly influences Australian dollar’s exchange rate. The higher the employment is, the better the country’s economic growth becomes. Unemployment rate allows to make projections of the currency’s future value as jobless citizens tend to spend less. As a result, traders are very attentive to any changes in these labor market indicators.



FOMC Meeting Minutes

February 22, 21:00 MT time

The Federal Reserve will release a detailed record of its January meeting at 21:00 MT time, providing in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates. Traders always care about the additional information from the US central bank. The release will affect the US dollar.

US preliminary GDP

February 22, 15:30 MT time

US preliminary GDP will be published at 15:30 MT time. This is the second estimate of American economic growth in the last 3 months of 2016. The first estimate released in January missed forecasts showing that the US economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.9% in Q4, below expectations of 2.2%.

The greenback has direct correlation with this release. If the figures are revised to the upside, the US dollar will rise. In case of the downward revision USD will fall.



Private Capital Expenditure

February 23, 02:30 MT time

Australian dollar tends to react very actively to the private capital expenditure (Capex) releases as Capex is an early indicator of a country’s economic growth. Traders closely watch this event to decipher its impact on the currency. Don’t miss the chance to make money on the Capex data coming at 02:30 MT time!

Capital expenditure release is an important signal of Australian economic activity. Don’t miss the movement in AUD/USD!

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12292
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  #4065  
Old 01-02-2017, 16:51
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What to expect from Bank of England’s meeting?
2/1/2017

The BoE is due to release its rate decision, minutes and inflation report at 14:00 MT time, followed by Carney’s press conference.

Key things to watch

Growth

After the Brexit vote, pessimistic BoE’s senior officials had to slash their GDP forecast for the UK. But as everybody knows, time is a great healer; the British economy showed colossal resilience and dissipated the bank’s fears of looming economic slowdown. So, at the November meeting, the BoE had to revise its forecast for the gross domestic growth for 2017 to 1.4% from 0.8%. The subsequent economic data didn’t disappoint policy makers’ expectations. The latest reading of the UK GDP has held better. In fact, it overshot BoE estimates of 0.4%, rising by 0.6% instead. This will probably encourage the BoE to upgrade its forecasts once again at the upcoming meeting.

Inflation

The first reaction to the Brexit vote was a plunge in sterling’s exchange rate that pushed the UK inflation rate to 1.6% (two-year high). At the November meeting, the BoE guessed for 2.7% inflation rate in 2017. Since then oil prices spiked 8% which may push the bank to lift its last forecast for inflation to 2.8% for 2017. But the bigger upticks in inflation rates are unlikely. The recent appreciation of the pound slightly clipped the wings of inflation.

Interest rate

Strong economic growth and rising inflation rates usually lead to the rise in inflation rates. But super cautious BoE will likely shy away from raising rates expecting grievous, devastating consequences for the UK economy after Brexit. The UK’s separation with the EU is likely to hit business activity and slow consumer spending.

The recent rise in sterling, however, offered the BoE a greater room for manoeuvre. Now, the bank can raise interest rates without hurting employment. We must note that this was a major concern of rate-setters in November.

Overall, the strong economic data and stronger GBP should increase the chances the BoE will change its current neutral-to-dovish stance to just neutral or even to neutral-hawkish one. This will certainly push the pound higher in short-term.

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12293
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  #4066  
Old 01-02-2017, 16:55
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EUR/USD: bulls going to deliver wave (v) of [c]
2/1/2017



Wave 2 has been developing in a form of a zigzag. Therefore, a bullish impulse in wave [c] is likely going to be continued, so we should keep an eye on +1/8 MM Level as a possible intraday target. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline in wave [i].



As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a Double Three pattern in wave [b]. So, there’s a developing impulse in wave [c] of 2. In this case, there’s a chance to have an impulse in wave (v) of [c], so we could have a new local high during the day.

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  #4067  
Old 01-02-2017, 17:04
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EUR/USD: "Window" going to act as a resistance
2/1/2017



We’ve got a possible “Piercing Line” on the lower “Window”. At the same time, there’s an “Advance Block” at the local high, so there’s an opportunity to have a local correction. However, bulls are likely going to test the upper “Window” afterwards.



We’ve got two bearish “Harami” in a row. If the last pattern confirms, the pair is likely going to test the 55 Moving Average, which could be a departure point for another bullish rally.

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  #4068  
Old 01-02-2017, 17:07
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USD/JPY: bullish "High Wave"
2/1/2017



The lower “Window” has acted as a support again, so we’ve got a “Hammer” and an “Engulfing”. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance. If any bearish pattern arrives later on, there’ll be a chance to have another decline towards the last low.



The last “High Wave” pattern has done a good job, so we’ve got a “Harami” and a “Tweezers” on the 34 Moving Average. However, both patters haven’t been confirmed yet. So, there’s an opportunity to have a local bearish correction, but bulls are likely going to deliver a new local high afterwards.

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  #4069  
Old 01-02-2017, 17:13
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EUR/USD broke resistance zone
2/1/2017

EUR/USD broke resistance zone
Next buy target – 1.0850
EUR/USD recently broke the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 1.0770 (which stopped the previous minor corrective wave (a)) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the previous downward impulse from November. The breakout of this resistance zone continues the active minor (iv)-wave from the start of January.

If the price closes today above the resistance level 1.0770, EUR/USD can then be expected to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 1.0850 (top of the earlier correction (iv) and the forecast price calculated for the completion of the active (iv)-wave)



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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12297
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  #4070  
Old 01-02-2017, 17:15
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AUD/NZD reversed from support area
2/1/2017

AUD/NZD reversed from support area
Next buy target - 1.0500
AUD/NZD continues to rise after the earlier upward reversal from the support area allocated between the powerful support level 1.0360 (which stopped the previous waves (A) and (i)) and the lower daily Bollinger Band. The upward reversal from this support area stopped the 3rd minor impulse wave (iii) of the C-wave from the middle of November.

Given the oversold reading on the daily Stochastic indicator, AUD/NZD is likely to rise further toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.0500. Strong support remains at the support level 1.0360.



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  #4071  
Old 02-02-2017, 13:58
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AUD/USD: shark doesn't leave Aussie alone
2/2/2017

On the AUD/USD daily chart, prices reached an important resistance at 0.7646 (78.6% of the last mid-term descending wave). If it is broken, the prices will continue their rally towards the target 88.6% in the Shark inverted pattern.



On the AUD/USD hourly chart, a breakout of the upper boundary of the consolidation range 0.7515-0.7605 allowed the "bulls" to operate more freely. The mark of 0.7735 can be used as a target of the upward movement. The main support lies at 0.7605.



Recommendations: hold longs formed from the level of 0,7595, BUY 0,7605 SL 0,755 TP 0,773.

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12304
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  #4072  
Old 02-02-2017, 14:12
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EUR/USD: bulls are sweeping away all the hurdles
2/2/2017

On the EUR/USD daily chart, prices approached to the convergence zone located at 1.0818-1.0825. If it is broken out, there will be a corrective movement towards 1,093 (61.8% level of the last descending wave). As long as the euro is above 1.0705, the bulls will be maintaining their control over the pair.



On the EUR/USD hourly chart, a successful test of the resistance at 1.0805 will open the way towards the 1.093 level. There is a 200% target in the AB = CD pattern. The key supports are located at 1,075-1,076.



Recommendation: BUY 1,0805 SL 1,075 TP 1,093.

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12305
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  #4073  
Old 02-02-2017, 14:18
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Morning brief for February 2
2/2/2017

The US dollar dropped overnight as the Fed gave little fodder to change its pace of the US rate increases. Markets were somewhat disappointed with the statement and Treasury yields, so, the greenback had to reverse its hard-earned gains that had occurred following the upbeat ISM manufacturing release and ADP payrolls report. The euro edged up to 1.0795 enjoying the broad weakening of the USD. Trump’s trade advisor Peter Navarro’s comments on the currency manipulation of a number of countries sent the dollar lower and provoked a flurry of responses coming from Japan, the EU. Donald Tusk, European council President, said the US has become a worrying source of unpredictability. It seems that Trump is now playing the role of puppet master saying when market ought to rise/fall.

Later today we will hear the ECB President Draghi speaking at a joint conference by the ECB and Bank of Slovenia. The market’s reaction should be subdued.

Aussie was the main performer of the Asian session. It hopped above 0.7640 on the stronger than expected trade balance data which showed Australia’s record monthly trade surplus. Soaring iron ore and coal prices added fuel to the flames and catapulted the AUD even higher against its US peer.

NZD/USD slowed down its rally and skipped some points overnight. A story of a cow showing symptoms of bovine TB infection triggered the Kiwi’s downfall. By the end of the Asian session, NZD/USD managed to rebound to 0.7300.



GBP/USD jumped above 1.2670 having reached its highest level since December 2016. A solid UK economic data and long-awaited certainty over the Brexit process helped the British pound to recover from its recent precipitous downfall. Later today the Bank of England meets and releases its latest inflation Report. The market expects aa upgrade of the bank’s growth and inflation forecasts.

USD/JPY has lost its ground on the session having slumped to 112.55 on the risk-averse selling of the greenback.

USD/CAD slumped below 1.3000 on the broad weakening of the US dollar. Brent oil futures have firmed further and rose to $56.60.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12306
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  #4074  
Old 02-02-2017, 14:24
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EUR/USD: bulls going to test resistance
2/2/2017



Bears faced a support at 1.0719, so we’ve got a “V-Bottom” pattern, which pushed the price towards a resistance at 1.0774. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the next resistance at 1.0830 – 1.0850. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline towards a support at 1.0774 – 1.0745.



There’s a “Double Bottom”, so the price is consolidating. In this case, the pair is likely going to reach the nearest resistance at 1.0815 – 1.0830. If we see a pullback from these levels, bears will probably try to achieve a support at 1.0795 – 1.0774.

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12307
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  #4075  
Old 02-02-2017, 14:29
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GBP/USD: another bullish "Pennant"
2/2/2017



We’ve got a “V-Bottom”, so the price is rising. Therefore, we should keep an eye on a resistance at 1.2674 – 1.2726 as a possible intraday target. Considering a possible pullback from this area, there’s a chance to have a decline towards a support at 1.2619 – 1.2581 afterwards.



The price is moving up towards the uptrend. Also, we’ve got a “Pennant” pattern, so bulls are likely going to reach the next resistance at 1.2703 – 1.2726 during the day. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an option to have a local bearish correction.

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12308
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  #4076  
Old 02-02-2017, 14:44
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Bank’s projections for the BoE’s meeting
2/2/2017

Goldman Sachs - bullish

Analysts believe that the press conference, Inflation Report and MPC minutes should be hawkish, and, therefore, bullish for GBP.

Morgan Stanley – bullish

MS focuses on the BoE’s inflation report. There is a potential for GBP/USD uplift back to at least 1.27/1.28 followed by the downfall towards 1.17.

BofA Merrill – neutral with slight hawkishness

The bank expects a neutral bias on policy from the BoE. It should hold rates, diverting from QE.

ANZ – too early to project a downward path for GBP

The bank notes that the pound managed to stabilize in recent weeks on the strong economic releases. Sterling Is discounted a lot, so, in the near-term, it will be gathering bullish momentum to partially recoup its past losses. In the longer term, however, the risks are skewed to the downside as hiring trends in the economy is gradually slowing; real income growth is poised to be halted by the rising inflation and investment outflow. At the end of March and in the early part of April, the tone of the EU-UK negotiation will be crucial in assessing further sterling’s near-term path.

NAB – bullish

The BoE will stay on hold but might express the desire to raise interest rate in the future. The main GBP/USD resistance for today is located at 1.2775 – the December 2016 high.

TD – bullish with bearish outlook for the future

Analysts expect the BoE to keep rates on hold throughout 2017 – 2018 and choose the middle road for interest rates until the Brexit situation becomes clearer. Sterling experienced a moderate rebound as the UK economy proved to be resilient after unexpected “leave” vote. But the GBP’s fundamentals are still vulnerable on the back of the EU-UK negotiations.

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12310
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  #4077  
Old 02-02-2017, 14:50
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What’s new in the oil market?
2/2/2017

Oil prices slid down to $56.82 on Thursday as the Energy Information Administration report showed a sharp increase in the US crude and gasoline stockpiles. Other numerous fundamental factors are keeping oil prices firmly in the $50 – 60 range.



In the beginning of this week, Brent futures and West Texas intermediate were underpinned by indications that oil producers keep their promises of curbing output and geopolitical tensions between the United States and Tehran after Iranian missile tests. Senator Bob Corker, chairman of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, promised on Monday to work with other lawmakers and the Trump administration to hold Iran responsible. Israeli prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he will bring up new sanctions on Iran in the course of his meeting with newly elected US President next month. Mr. Netanyahu was a vociferous opponent of the Obama administration’s intention to strike a deal with Iran that led to an end of the economic sanctions for Iran. The resolution ratified in July 2015 prohibited any Iran’s nuclear activity.



Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in his country’s defense said that Iran’s missiles are not designed to carry nuclear warheads and are meant for self-defense: “These missiles aren’t part of the nuclear accord. Iran will never use missiles produced in Iran to attack any other country.”

Whether international community will believe on Iran’s bare word or not, it’s an open question. But as long as this missile test situation is not resolved, the oil prices will be steadily trading at their present levels turning a deaf ear, or showing little reaction to the economic data with significant rises in stocks, or increased numbers of the US rigs.

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12311
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  #4078  
Old 02-02-2017, 15:08
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EUR/USD: bulls going even higher
2/2/2017



The market has been rising right after a pullback from 7/8 MM Level. So, wave [c] of 2 is likely going to be continued. In this case, we should keep an eye on +2/8 MM Level as a possible intraday target.



There’s a bullish impulse in wave [c], which is taking place on the one-hour chart. Therefore, bulls are likely going to deliver an extension in wave (iii). If a pullback from +1/8 MM Level arrives later on, there’ll be an opportunity to have wave (iv).

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12312
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  #4079  
Old 02-02-2017, 15:46
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EUR/USD: bulls going to test upper "Window"
2/2/2017



We’ve got a bullish “High Wave” on the 21 Moving Average, so the price is still rising. Considering that there isn’t any reversal pattern so far, the pair is likely going to continue moving up towards the nearest “Window”. If any bearish pattern arrives afterwards, there’ll be an opportunity to have a local correction.



There’s an “Engulfing” on the 55 Moving Average, which has been confirmed by the last “Three Methods” pattern. Also, there’s a bearish “Hanging Man”. Therefore, bears are likely going to deliver a local correction, but bulls will probably try to test the upper “Window” afterwards.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12313
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Old 02-02-2017, 15:50
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Default Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

USD/JPY: Moving Average going to act as a resistance
2/2/2017



We’ve got a “Harami” and a “Three Black Crows” on the 21 & 13 Moving Averages. Both patterns have been confirmed, so the market is likely going to get a support on the nearest “Window”. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a local upward price movement.



The last “Three Methods” pattern led to the current decline. If we see a pullback from the achieved support area, bulls are likely going to deliver an upward correction. So, we should keep an eye on the 34 Moving Average as a possible intraday target, which could be a departure point for another decline.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12314
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