Technical Analysis By FxGlory

[FXGLORY]

USDCHF H4 Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 05.05.2025





Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USDCHF pair today faces volatility due to key economic data releases. USD traders should pay close attention to the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data from S&P Global and ISM. These indices offer critical insights into the economic health of the US services sector. Positive PMI figures above 50.0 generally support a bullish outlook for the USD, increasing investor confidence. Conversely, the CHF is influenced today by Switzerland's latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, a crucial indicator for inflation expectations. Any CPI results significantly deviating from forecasts can induce volatility in CHF, impacting USD CHF price movements.


Price Action:
Analyzing USDCHF price action on the H4 chart, we notice the pair has been slightly bullish recently. However, in the last candles before market close, bearish momentum emerged, pushing prices towards the Ichimoku Cloud's upper band, which currently acts as immediate support. If prices breach and penetrate into the cloud, a bearish continuation is plausible. Meanwhile, the short-term moving average (9 MA, blue) and the longer-term average (17 MA, orange) have converged closely, with the 9 MA slightly dipping towards the 17 MA, signaling a potential bearish crossover and trend reversal if this continues.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: The Ichimoku indicator reveals price currently positioned just above the cloud's upper boundary, suggesting immediate support. Entering the cloud would strengthen bearish sentiment and indicate potential downward momentum.
Moving Averages (MA 9 and MA 17): The 9-period MA is declining slightly toward the 17-period MA, with both lines converging closely. A confirmed bearish crossover could signal a stronger bearish outlook.
Volumes: The last two volume bars are declining and red, signifying weakening bullish participation and strengthening the bearish scenario if volume continues to diminish.
MACD: The MACD histogram shows decreasing bullish momentum, implying weakening buying pressure and an impending bearish divergence. Traders should watch closely for the MACD line crossing below the signal line as a confirmation of bearish momentum.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): RSI is currently around 46.99, indicating a neutral momentum scenario with room for price movement in either direction. It highlights indecision in the current market context, urging caution.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support lies near the Ichimoku Cloud upper band around 0.8230; a significant break below could extend losses towards the psychological level of 0.8200.
Resistance: Key resistance is clearly identified at the recent high near 0.8336, serving as a barrier to bullish attempts.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USD/CHF H4 chart analysis suggests a cautious bearish bias due to the weakening bullish momentum evident in key technical indicators like MACD and MA convergence. Traders should closely monitor today's crucial economic releases for USD and CHF, as outcomes will significantly influence the USD-CHF pair's volatility. A breach of the immediate Ichimoku support could intensify bearish sentiments. Conversely, positive US data could reignite bullish momentum.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CHF is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCHF Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
05.05.2025

[FXGLORY]

EUR/USD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 05.06.2025





Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
EURUSD is influenced today by significant economic releases from both sides of the Atlantic. For the USD, traders are closely watching the International Trade Balance, Consumer Confidence (RCM/TIPP), and Treasury Bond Auction results. Positive outcomes from these reports, particularly higher exports or stronger consumer sentiment, could strengthen the USD. For EUR, key releases include Industrial Output, Jobless Claims, and several important PMI reports from S&P Global, providing insight into Eurozone economic health. Stronger-than-expected figures can bolster EUR demand, leading to bullish movements.


Price Action:
The EUR-USD pair is currently in a sideways channel on the H4 timeframe. After a notable bearish reaction from the broken ascending trend lines, the price recently bounced off the lower boundary of the channel, suggesting a potential move upward towards the Ichimoku cloud (Kumo). However, with the price now below previously broken uptrend lines, signs of a bearish trend initiation are prominent.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo): The EUR USD price is beneath the Ichimoku cloud, confirming bearish pressure in the medium term. The cloud acts as a dynamic resistance zone, and a test of this area could either reinforce bearish sentiment or signal a possible bullish reversal upon a breakout above.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI indicator is currently at 46.84, indicating neutral market conditions with a slight bearish bias. The RSI's position suggests room for price movement in either direction without being overextended.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic indicator at 21.46 and 37.54 suggests oversold conditions, indicating potential short-term bullish momentum as price reacts upward from oversold levels. Traders should remain cautious, however, as momentum could quickly shift if resistance at the Ichimoku cloud holds.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is clearly established at 1.12940, the lower boundary of the current sideways channel.
Resistance: The closest resistance is at 1.14000, coinciding with the Ichimoku cloud lower boundary and previous horizontal resistance levels.


Conclusion and Consideration:
Based on technical indicators and price action analysis for EURUSD H4, the market exhibits bearish sentiment with potential short-term bullish corrections within the sideways channel. The upcoming economic releases from both USD and EUR regions could introduce volatility, necessitating careful monitoring of these fundamental events. Traders should watch closely for a clear break above the Ichimoku cloud or below the current channel support to determine the next directional trend.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
05.06.2025

[FXGLORY]

USD/CHF H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 05.07.2025



Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
USDCHF is in focus today as markets react to key economic developments from both the U.S. and New Zealand. For the USD, attention centers on the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement, with the Federal Funds Rate expected to remain at 4.50%. However, the real drivers will be the FOMC Statement and Press Conference, where any hints of future rate hikes or economic concerns could spark volatility. Additional U.S. data, including a smaller-than-expected draw in crude oil inventories and a sharp rebound in consumer credit to $9.8B, may also influence dollar sentiment. On the NZD side, labor market data showed modest improvement with a 0.1% employment gain and steady unemployment at 5.1%, while wage growth came in softer than expected. The RBNZ Financial Stability Report and Governor Hawkesby’s speech may further shape the NZD outlook. Together, these events create a potentially volatile environment for USDCHF, with traders watching for confirmation of bullish momentum or fresh signals from monetary policy updates.


Price Action:
The USDCHF pair on the H4 timeframe has recently broken out of its bearish structure, confirmed by a strong bullish engulfing candle. The series of lower wicks beneath recent candles signals solid buying pressure and underlying support. This move comes after a period of sideways consolidation below the 200-period moving average, suggesting that the market is gaining bullish momentum. If the price manages to break and hold above the key resistance level at 0.83500, it could trigger a strong upward wave, shifting the overall market sentiment toward a more sustained bullish trend.


Key Technical Indicators:
100-period Moving Average (MA100): The USDCHF price is currently trading below the 100-period moving average (orange line), indicating that the broader trend remains bearish. This moving average is acting as dynamic resistance, capping upward price movements. A decisive breakout above this level would be a key signal for potential trend reversal or the beginning of sustained bullish momentum.
Volume: Recent volume activity shows a noticeable spike alongside the latest strong bullish candle, suggesting increased market participation and conviction behind the breakout attempt. This rise in volume adds weight to the bullish breakout scenario, especially if followed by further gains above resistance levels.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is established around the 0.82100 level, where multiple candles have shown lower wicks, signaling strong buying interest. A secondary support level is found at approximately 0.81500, marking a previous swing low and serving as a key threshold for potential bearish continuation if broken.
Resistance: The nearest resistance lies near 0.82850, aligned with the 100-period moving average, which continues to act as a dynamic ceiling. A clear break above this could lead the price toward the next key resistance zone around 0.83500.


Conclusion and Consideration:
Overall, USDCHF is displaying early signs of a potential bullish reversal, supported by a breakout from its recent bearish structure, increased buying volume, and consistent price support near the 0.82100 level. While the pair remains below the 100-period moving average, the strong bullish candle and market reaction suggest growing momentum. A confirmed break above the 0.82850 resistance—particularly if driven by broader USD strength following U.S. economic events—could pave the way toward the 0.83500 level and signal a shift in market sentiment. Traders should remain attentive to both technical signals and upcoming fundamental developments, especially from the Federal Reserve, which may serve as key catalysts for the next major move.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CHF is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCHF Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
05.07.2025

[FXGLORY]

GBP/USD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 05.08.2025





Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The GBPUSD pair today is impacted by several key economic releases. For the GBP, significant data such as the RICS House Price Balance and HBOS House Price Index could lead to notable volatility, as higher-than-expected readings generally strengthen the Pound. Moreover, the recent Bank of England Monetary Policy Report, Monetary Policy Summary, and Interest Rate decision further shape traders' expectations about future monetary policy. On the USD side, upcoming releases such as Initial Jobless Claims and Wholesale Inventories can impact the USD valuation; a lower number of jobless claims would typically bolster the US dollar, reflecting a healthier labor market.


Price Action:
Analyzing the GBP-USD H4 chart, the price has been consolidating sideways within a clear support zone. Currently, a new green bullish candle indicates a reaction from the support zone around 1.3257. If the upper boundary of this zone fails to sustain price, a move downward toward the previously broken resistance line around 1.3220 could provide stronger support. However, given the distance from the existing upward trend line, the overall bullish trend remains intact.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: Currently above the candles, indicating short-term bearish momentum. A shift below the candles would confirm a renewed bullish stance.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI reading is at 45.17, signaling neutral momentum. There's room for price movements in both directions, without imminent overbought or oversold conditions.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is slightly negative but approaching the zero line, indicating weakening bearish momentum and a potential bullish crossover soon, suggesting buyers may regain strength.
Stochastic Oscillator: Stochastics at 20.58 (main line) and 32.13 (signal line) indicate oversold conditions, suggesting a potential bullish reversal may occur soon.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support lies at 1.3257, with a stronger support zone at 1.3220, coinciding with previous resistance turned support.
Resistance: Immediate resistance is near the recent swing high at 1.3385, providing the first significant barrier for bullish continuation.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The GBP/USD technical and fundamental daily chart analysis indicates the pair is consolidating within a robust support area. The potential for a bullish reversal from current support is bolstered by oversold Stochastics and a weakening bearish MACD signal. However, traders must closely monitor today's GBP and USD economic releases for increased volatility and directional clarity. Caution is advised due to the mixed signals from technical indicators, highlighting the importance of waiting for confirmed price action signals.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GBP/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GBPUSD Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
05.08.2025

[FXGLORY]

USD/CAD Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 05.09.2025





Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USD-CAD currency pair today is likely to experience significant volatility due to key economic news releases from both Canada and the United States. Canadian employment data, specifically the change in employment figures and the unemployment rate, is expected to strongly influence CAD strength. Better-than-expected job creation or a decline in the unemployment rate could strengthen the CAD against the USD. Conversely, several influential members of the US Federal Reserve, including Thomas Barkin, John Williams, Austan Goolsbee, Christopher Waller, Michael Barr, and Adriana Kugler, will deliver speeches today. Their commentary on future monetary policy directions and interest rates could cause fluctuations in the USD, especially if their tones are notably hawkish.


Price Action:
The USDCAD pair on the H4 chart has broken through the horizontal resistance at approximately 1.3882, potentially turning this level into new support upon any retest. The recent bullish candles show clear upward momentum; however, the price is currently extended significantly towards the upper Bollinger Band, suggesting a potential corrective pullback soon. Importantly, the break of the descending trend line indicates a potential shift from bearish to bullish sentiment, with recent bullish divergence observed on RSI further reinforcing this view.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The price has touched and exceeded the upper Bollinger Band, indicating it may be overextended and due for a correction or sideways consolidation to return within a normal trading range.
RSI: Currently, the RSI shows bullish momentum but is nearing the overbought territory. Recent bullish divergence at previous lows suggests the bullish trend might still have underlying strength, though traders should anticipate corrective movements.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic oscillator is deeply in overbought territory (above 90), signaling a possible short-term reversal or consolidation ahead. Caution is advised, as the price could initiate a short-term corrective phase.
Volume: Volume analysis shows relatively moderate to high trading activity during the breakout, confirming strong market participation. However, watch for volume spikes during potential corrective moves for clues about strength and continuation.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The newly established support at 1.3882 will be crucial in validating the breakout. Another significant support lies around 1.3800.
Resistance: Immediate resistance is at 1.3920 (current recent high), with the next major resistance located around the psychological level of 1.4000.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USDCAD pair on the H4 timeframe displays bullish tendencies, strongly supported by price action and technical indicators like the Bollinger Bands, RSI, and Stochastic. However, due to the substantial bullish extension, traders should anticipate possible corrective moves toward support levels before resuming upward momentum. Today's significant economic releases from Canada and influential speeches from US Federal Reserve members may lead to increased volatility; hence, traders should exercise caution and consider risk management strategies closely.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CAD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCAD Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
05.09.2025

[FXGLORY]

BTC/USD Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 05.13.2025





Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today, BTCUSD's price action is closely influenced by upcoming economic releases from the United States, including the NFIB Small Business Index and Core CPI data. A higher-than-expected NFIB Small Business Index could strengthen the USD, placing downward pressure on BTCUSD. Meanwhile, market participants keenly await the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, given its critical impact on inflation expectations and potential Federal Reserve actions. A higher CPI reading may boost USD strength, potentially pressuring BTC downward.


Price Action:
BTC-USD analysis on the H4 timeframe continues to display an uptrend, currently undergoing a correction phase. Recently, BTCUSD reached a strong support zone evidenced by a confluence of the horizontal support level and ascending trend line. The formation of a doji candle at this support zone indicates market indecision, highlighting the critical nature of this technical level. Traders should closely monitor subsequent candles to confirm price direction.


Key Technical Indicators:
Volume: Volume indicators suggest moderate trading activity. While volume decreased slightly during the latest corrective candles, a spike in buying volume near current support would significantly reinforce bullish sentiment, confirming potential reversal points.
Parabolic SAR: Currently, the Parabolic SAR dots are positioned above the price action, suggesting short-term bearish pressure. However, their proximity to price action hints that a reversal may be imminent should the price stabilize and rise from the support zone.
MFI (Money Flow Index): The MFI currently stands at 55.77, indicating balanced market participation with room for further buying or selling pressure. It suggests neither overbought nor oversold conditions, supporting the potential for price stabilization and subsequent bullish momentum from the current support zone.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram shows a diminishing bullish momentum, indicating a weakening uptrend in the short term. Traders should watch for a bullish crossover of the MACD and signal line to validate potential upward continuation.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is identified at $10142.09–$10279.95, strengthened by a historical consolidation area and the ascending trend line.
Resistance: The immediate resistance levels to watch are around the recent high near $105786.14, with further resistance observed at historical peaks above this area.


Conclusion and Consideration:
BTCUSD on the H4 chart currently shows a corrective phase within an overall bullish trend, supported by key indicators like Volume, Parabolic SAR, MFI, and MACD. Today's significant economic data releases from the U.S. pose potential volatility, likely affecting BTC USD movements sharply. Traders should cautiously observe the critical support zone at current levels for potential reversal signals, while maintaining awareness of U.S. economic indicators which could heavily influence the BTCUSD pair.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for BTC/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on BTCUSD Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
05.13.2025

[FXGLORY]

GBP/AUD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 05.14.2025





Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
GBPAUD is in focus today as markets react to significant economic releases from both the UK and Australia. From the GBP perspective, preliminary GDP figures came in stronger than expected at 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, outperforming forecasts of 0.1%. Manufacturing production and industrial output, however, missed expectations, declining by 0.8% and 0.6%, respectively. Despite a slightly wider goods trade deficit of -£19.7B, improvements in construction output and services index provided mixed signals for the UK economy. On the Australian side, employment data showed robust job growth, adding 20.9K positions against an anticipated 32.2K, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%. Traders will closely monitor how these mixed data points influence GBPAUD's direction, watching for potential shifts in sentiment or confirmation of the pair’s near-term momentum.


Price Action:
The GBPAUD pair on the H4 timeframe has recently shifted to a bearish structure, evidenced by the clear break and sustained movement below the 200-period moving average. The recent series of strong bearish candles highlights increased selling pressure, suggesting market sentiment has turned negative. This downward move follows an extended phase of consolidation around the moving average, indicating that sellers have gained decisive control. If the price continues to sustain this bearish momentum and clearly breaks below recent support levels, it could lead to further declines and solidify the bearish trend.


Key Technical Indicators:
100-period Moving Average (MA100): The GBPAUD price is currently trading below the 100-period moving average (blue line), confirming that the overall market sentiment remains bearish. This moving average has acted consistently as dynamic resistance, suppressing bullish attempts and reinforcing downward momentum. A sustained break above this moving average would signal a weakening of bearish control and potentially mark the beginning of a bullish reversal.
MACD Indicator: The MACD histogram remains below the zero line, signaling ongoing bearish momentum. However, the histogram bars have begun to shorten, indicating a possible weakening in bearish strength and hinting at the potential for a bullish crossover. Traders should closely watch the MACD line for any bullish crossover above the signal line, as this could further validate a potential reversal scenario.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The nearest resistance lies near 2.06880, aligned with the 100-period moving average, which continues to act as a dynamic ceiling. A clear break above this could lead the price toward the next key resistance zone around 2.07600.
Resistance: The nearest resistance lies near 2.06880, aligned with the 100-period moving average, which continues to act as a dynamic ceiling. A clear break above this could lead the price toward the next key resistance zone around 2.07600.


Conclusion and Consideration:
In conclusion, the GBPAUD pair is currently facing bearish pressure both technically and fundamentally. Despite better-than-expected UK GDP figures, mixed economic signals and robust employment data from Australia create uncertainty regarding future direction. Technically, price action confirms increased selling momentum with key moving averages acting as resistance, and MACD indicating potential for bearish momentum to weaken. Traders should closely monitor the pair’s reaction near critical support at 2.05650 and resistance around 2.06880 for clear directional cues, which could either confirm a continuation of the bearish trend or signal a possible bullish reversal.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GBP/AUD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GBPAUD Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
05.14.2025

[FXGLORY]

GBP/USD Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 05.15.2025






Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The GBPUSD currency pair will experience heightened volatility today due to significant economic events from both the UK and the US. Traders will closely monitor the UK's GDP release, Manufacturing Production, and Trade Balance figures, which will reflect the overall health of the UK economy and may influence GBP strength. For the US, numerous crucial indicators such as PPI, Retail Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, and speeches by Fed officials Mary Daly and Jerome Powell could provide significant insights into future US monetary policy. More hawkish tones from these speeches or stronger-than-expected economic data would likely boost the USD, potentially placing downward pressure on the GBPUSD pair.


Price Action:
The GBP-USD pair on the H4 chart recently pulled back from the upper Bollinger Band, retreating to test the middle Bollinger Band. This mid-band area acts as critical immediate support, and a failure here might see the pair challenging the ascending trendline near the 1.31735 level. Should this key trendline fail to hold, a deeper correction towards the psychological support at 1.30038 might be seen. Conversely, bullish recovery above the mid-band may drive the price to retest the major resistance at 1.34331.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The Bollinger Bands for GBP/USD are currently converging, indicating reduced volatility and a potential upcoming breakout. The price reacted from the upper band and is testing support at the middle band. A decisive break below the middle band could signal increased bearish momentum.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots have recently switched below the price, signaling a potential bullish reversal on this timeframe. However, traders should remain cautious and confirm this bullish signal with price action.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): A divergence between price action and RSI is evident, with RSI making lower highs while the price recently made higher highs, suggesting weakening bullish momentum and potential bearish reversal ahead.
Stochastic Oscillator: The stochastic oscillator is approaching oversold conditions, currently at 9.11 and 29.76. This suggests that a short-term bounce might occur soon if the price finds support, potentially limiting immediate downside risk.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is located at 1.31735, aligning with the ascending trendline and previous price action area. The next significant support lies at the psychological level of 1.30038, historically significant for price reversals.
Resistance: Immediate resistance stands at the recent swing high at 1.34331, representing a critical barrier for bulls to overcome for continued upward momentum.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The GBP-USD H4 technical and fundamental daily chart analysis reveals a critical juncture for the pair. Current indicators suggest mixed signals, indicating caution in both directions. Traders should pay close attention to today's economic events and news releases, as significant volatility is anticipated. Proper risk management and close monitoring of price action around key levels and economic announcements are strongly recommended.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GBP/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GBPUSD Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
05.15.2025