Tracking the EUR/USD pair : 05.04.2012

[RLFX]

Date: 04.04.2012 Time: 21:56 Rate: 1.3138

Daily chart

Last Review

The 1.3321 price level used as a resistance and in addition the could not breach the ascending trend line and stay above it, that sent the price towards the Bollinger’s moving average that is used as a dynamic support level at this point. As it was said in yesterday’s review, closure of a candle under the moving average will probably lead the price to check the last low on the 1.3000 price level. On the other hand, an establishment of the price on the moving average and coming back above the 1.3320 price level will sign that it is possible that the price will try to go create another move upwards in order to breach the ascending trend line.

Current review for today

The price went down under the Bollinger’s moving average and it is possible that it is on its way to the lower band which is close to the last low on the 1.2975 price level. It is possible to see that the price has created a lower peak (1.3380) than the previous (1.3484) and breaking the 1.3000 low will actually create a descending price structure that will probably send the price to a new low level.

You can see the chart below:

http://www.real-forex.com/charts-dai....04.2012/1.jpg

4 Hour chart

Date: 03.04.2012 Time: 23:15 Rate: 1.3235

Last Review

It is possible to see clearly how the third candle from the right is closing under the trend line connecting the lows (points 2 and 4) for the first time since the beginning of the uptrend, the next candle made a check to this trend line, if it can switch roles from a dynamic support to a dynamic resistance, and the next candle simply continues strongly downwards (it is true that there was an announcement of the FED in the USA, but it is interesting to see how the technical analysis works so nicely with the reality). The price has corrected the last uptrend (blue broken line) by a third to the 1.3239 price level and by that it completed its first target as it was written in yesterday’s review. Now it is possible to assume that after a technical correction of the last downtrend (if this kind of correction will occur), the price will continue to its second target on the 1.3186 price level and the 1.3150 after. Breaking the 1.3150 price level will lead the price towards the “Wolfe waves” pattern target which is the crossing between the price and the line connecting points 1 and 4.

Current review for today

It is possible to see that the price did not correct anything from its move downwards and continued the downtrend by breaking all the Fibonacci levels on its way. By breaking the 1.3150 price level, which is a 61.8% correction of the uptrend (blue broken line), the price defines that the current move is not a correction move but a downtrend by its own, any move upwards that will occur from this point will be a correction to the last downtrend while that defines the general direction of the price. Now the price is close to the “Wolfe waves” pattern target (the crossing of the price with the trend line connecting between points 1 and 4) and it is reasonable to assume that the price will reach this target.

You can see the chart below:

http://www.real-forex.com/charts-dai....04.2012/2.jpg

GBP-USD

Date: 04.04.2012 Time: 21:28 Rate: 1.5886

4 Hour chart

Last Review

It was mentioned on yesterday’s review that the “Wolfe waves” pattern is fading, but here in one day it came back to life and in its full power. By breaking the ascending trend line (points 2 and 4) the price filled the pattern and the probability that it is on its way towards the pattern target on its crossing with the line connecting points 1 and 4 grew significantly higher. it is very possible that on its way downwards the price will correct the last downtrend which started at the 1.6083 price level, but this correction is supposed to be only a secondary move on its way to the mentioned target.

Current review for today

On the last trading day the price continued its way downwards and stopped on the 1.5833 support level, now we can expect a correction move in size of between a third and two thirds on the last downtrend which started on the 1.6083 price level, meaning to the trend line connecting points 2 and 4, after that is it possible that the price will continue its way to the “Wolfe waves” pattern target (a crossing of the price with the line connecting points 1 and 4).

You can see the chart below:

http://www.real-forex.com/charts-dai....04.2012/3.jpg

Important announcements for today:

08.15 (GMT+0) CHF – CPI (Monthly)
09.30 (GMT+0) GBP – Manufacturing Production (Monthly)
12.00 (GMT+0) GBP – Asset Purchase Facility
12.00 (GMT+0) GBP – Official Bank Rate
13.30 (GMT+0) CAD – Building Permits (Monthly)
13.30 (GMT+0) CAD – Employment Change
13.30 (GMT+0) CAD – Unemployment Rate
13.30 (GMT+0) USD – Unemployment Claims
15.00 (GMT+0) CAD – Ivey PMI

By: Real Forex – Exclusive Trading
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