Tracking the EUR/USD pair - 03.04.2012

[RLFX]

Date: 02.04.2012 Time: 22:13 Rate: 1.3323

Daily chart

Last Review

It is possible to see that at this time the price is trying to stay in the peak area and refuses to accelerate downwards. We can see that in the last two candles, their body is small and they are locked inside the body of the previous green candle, which explains the power of the buyers at this stage. In addition, it is possible to see that the price is located above the Bollinger moving average which shows a bullish market at the moment. As it was said in yesterday’s review, only an establishment of the price above the mentioned trend line, will lead the price to a continuation of the current uptrend with first target on the 1.3484 price level, last peak level. On the other hand, a brake of the price in the current level will probably lead the price to a correction move in size of between a third and two thirds by Fibonacci retracement of the last uptrend which started from the 1.3000 price level.

Current review for today

During the last 5 days the price is leaning on the 1.3321 price level and trying to check whether this level can change its role from resistance to support. It is possible to see that none of the candles could close under this level even though there were many attempts to do so with long shadows falling downwards. In addition we can see that the price is located above the Bollinger’s moving average which shows a Bullish market while the moving average is starting to circle upwards and used as a dynamic support to the price. On the other hand, the price still did not manage to establish itself above the ascending trend line (broken blue line) and will have to do so in case the buyers want to continue the uptrend, it is possible to assume that breaking the 1.3484 price level will lead the way towards the 1.3627 price level, two thirds correction of the last downtrend (red broken line).on the other hand, breaking the price and a closure of the candle under the Bollinger’s moving average, will probably lead to the price towards the last low on the 1.3000 price level.

You can see the chart below:



4 Hour chart

Date: 02.04.2012 Time: 22:37 Rate: 1.3325

Last Review

The price has breached the closest support on the 1.3320 price level and created a descending price structure, now it is possible that the price is headed towards the Fibonacci 38.2% correction point on the 1.3239 price level. In case the price will break this level, it will be possible to assume that the “Wolfe Waves” (composed of points 1 to 5) will be realized with a target on the cross of the price with line connecting between points 1 and 4 around the 1.3080 price level.

Current review for today

It is possible to see that the 1.3320 price level which was described in the daily chart as the support level and stopping all the attempts of the price to go down, is used in this chart in the same role, now it is possible to see the third candle from the left went down to the lower Bollinger band, stopped exactly on it and closed above the 1.3320 price level. Breaking this level and the ascending trend line between points 2 and 4 will probably lead the price following the “Wolfe waves” pattern to the area between the 1.3230 and the 1.3150 price levels which are Fibonacci correction levels of the uptrend locked in the shrinking ascending price channel (blue thick broken line), breaking of the last mentioned level will lead the price towards the “Wolfe waves” pattern target which is its crossing with the line connecting points 1 and 4. Only a proven breaking of the 1.3385 price level will cancel this assumption.

You can see the chart below:



GBP-USD

Date: 02.04.2012 Time: 22:53 Rate: 1.6023

4 Hour chart

Last Review

The price has corrected 38.2% of the uptrend described in a black broken line and now supported in the 1.5850 price level Fibonacci area. In addition it is possible to see that a “Wolfe Waves” pattern was created and its target is the line connecting between points 1 and 4. It is possible to assume that breaking the 1.5850 price level and the ascending trend line (connecting points 2 and 4), will lead the price to the “Wolfe Waves” pattern target.

Current review for today

Since the last review in which it was said that the price corrected 38.2% of the uptrend marked in black broken line, it is possible to see that the price is supported in this Fibonacci correction level and performed an impressive move upwards to the 1.6083 price level. The 1.6000 price level was breached but the price is still checking it and the breaking is not proven enough. The “Wolfe waves” Pattern is still working since the price is located in the “sweet area” (brown background) but it seem to be fading. Proven breaking of the 1.6100 price level will indicate that it is possible that the price will continue its way upwards. On the other hand, breaking the lower ascending trend line (connecting points 2 and 4), will probably lead the price to the “Wolfe waves” pattern target, meaning the cross of the price with the line connecting points 1 and 4.

You can see the chart below:



Important announcements for today:

19.00 (GMT+0) USD – FOMC Meeting Minutes

By: Real Forex – Exclusive Trading
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