Tracking the EUR/USD Pair : 07.03.2012

[RLFX]

Date: 06.03.2012 Time: 21:43 Rate: 1.3111

Daily chart

Yesterday’s review

The price continued downwards just like the work plan says and strengthens by the “Wolfe Waves” pattern, now it reached the trend line connecting between points 2 and 4, meaning the line connects the lows and stops on them. But it is possible to see that the previous candle closed under the moving average so at the moment the price is located in the bearish area of the Bollinger bands. Breaking the ascending trend line will indicate that the price will continue its way towards the line connecting between points 1 and 4 and this is actually the pattern target, around the 1.2900 price level. Now a correction in size of between a third and two thirds of the last downtrend which started at the 1.3484 price level is possible (more about it in the 4 hour chart).

Current review for today

In the last trading day the price crossed the ascending trend line that goes between the lows (points 2 and 4) and it looks like it is on its way towards the “Wolfe waves” pattern target that is mentioned for the last few days. The target of the price is the cross of the price with the line connecting points 1 and 4, meaning around the 1.2900 area. It is possible that the price will try to check the trend line which it just crossed, but usually the movement of the price in this pattern is sharp and aggressive towards the target.

You can see the chart below:




4 Hour chart

Date: 06.03.2012 Time: 22:01 Rate: 1.3114

Yesterday’s review

As it was predicted the price has completed the “Double Top” pattern target and reached the 1.3231 target, after that it even fell to the 1.3170 price level, which is a Fibonacci correction level of 61.8% of the last uptrend (blue broken line). Now it is possible that we will see a correction in size of between a third and two thirds of the last downtrend (red broken line), meaning between the 1.3285 and the 1.3366 price levels. Second option is a stoppage of the price in the current area (under the Bollinger’s moving average) and breaking the 1.3170 price level with the target of the last low at the 1.2970 price level.

Current review for today

The price has stopped after a short ascending move to the 1.3241 price level and came back to break the last low on 1.3080 without correcting the downtrend started on the 1.3486 price level in a significant way. Now we can expect for this correction in any level to come. It looks like the next Fibonacci level 1.3084 allows that, while in addition to that works as an “One in, one out” pattern target (red broken lines). If this level will be breached, it will be possible to assume that the price will continue towards the last low on the 1.2970 price level.

You can see the chart below:



Important announcements for today:

13.15 (GMT+0) USD – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
13.30 (GMT+0) CAD – Building Permits
20.00 (GMT+0) NZD – Official Cash Rate
20.00 (GMT+0) NZD – RBNZ Rate Statement
20.00 (GMT+0) NZD – RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement

By: Real Forex – a True ECN Broker
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