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January 20th, 2012

Forex Analysis


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Old 20-01-2012, 10:07
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Default January 20th, 2012

Important Financial Indicators of the day Forecast Previous
GBP 09:30 (GMT) Retails Sales 0.6% -0.4%
CAD 12:00 (GMT) Core CPI m/m -0.2% 0.1%
USD 15:00 ( GMT) Existing Home Sales 4.65M 4.42M
Currencies EUR/USD The 17-nation euro strengthened yesterday as Spain and France sold bonds at lower yields in their first sales of medium and long-term debt since being downgraded by Standard & Poor’s.
The dollar has fallen 2.3 percent versus the euro since Jan. 13.

USD/CAD Canada’s dollar was little changed against its U.S. counterpart as a decline in crude oil countered a rally in equities.
Canada’s currency, also known as the loonie, was little changed at C$1.0108 per U.S. dollar at 5 p.m. in Toronto after touching C$1.0071, the most since Dec. 8.

Commodities Oil rose in New York, extending its gain for the week, as investors bet fuel demand will rise along with an economic recovery in the U.S.
Crude for February delivery advanced as much as 35 cents to $100.74 in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 4:36 p.m. Sydney time.

Gold regained strength on Friday after an early drop in prices spurred bargain hunting
from investors in Asia, while a steady euro and rising equities offered additional support for the metal, which is heading for its third week of gains.
Spot gold added 0.07 percent to $1,657.89 an ounce by 0718 GMT after falling to a low around $1,653.
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Old 03-02-2012, 10:00
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Default Yuan slips vs dollar, short-term appreciation intact

SHANGHAI: The yuan fell slightly against the dollar on Friday guided lower by the People's Bank of China's mid-point, but is still set for a weekly gain as the market expects the Chinese currency to stage a new leg of modest appreciation over the next two weeks.
Chinese Vice President and leader-in-waiting Xi Jinping will visit the United States in mid-February, and traders believe China may offer a goodwill gesture to let the currency rise ahead and during the visit, possibly letting it also breach its historical trading high of 6.2919 set in early January.
But the PBOC appeared not in a hurry to allow the currency to reach record high levels yet by fixing a weak mid-point on Friday, traders said.
The yuan thus slipped but remained near the crucial level of 6.3 against the dollar in morning trading, they said.
"The PBOC controls the pace of yuan appreciation as usual," said a trader at a European bank in Shanghai.
"But Friday's slight weakening won't derail a new leg of yuan appreciation ahead of Xi's US trip."
Spot yuan was trading at 6.3055 versus the dollar at midday, marginally weaker than Thursday's close of 6.3018 after the PBOC fixed a slightly softer mid-point of 6.3102 against Thursday's 6.3075.
As of midday, the yuan is set to rise 0.53 per cent this week in what traders believe is a prelude to the yuan's new round of gains in the next two weeks. The market was closed all last week for the Lunar New Year holiday.
Traders, however, said that the new leg of yuan appreciation will not herald a steep rise in the currency this year as China evaluates the impact on its exports from a weak global economy.
Traders instead expect the yuan to firm by about 3 per cent this year, a slower pace against a 4.7 per cent rise in 2011 when the currency steadily appreciated until late in the third quarter when the euro zone debt crisis began worsening.
US President Barack Obama will host China's Vice President Xi at the White House on Feb. 14.
China has long faced pressure from the United States to let its currency appreciate to help balance bilateral trade but it has repeatedly said it needs to decide the yuan's exchange rate in line with its own economic conditions.
In reality, the government has allowed the yuan to rise intermittently and especially during state visits of the countries' leaders, viewed by the market as goodwill and diplomatic gestures due to the importance of ties between the world's two biggest economies.
In the offshore non-deliverable forward market, one-year NDFs traded at 6.2730 around midday, implying 0.59 per cent yuan appreciation over the next year, compared with a 0.63 per cent rise implied at Thursday's close.
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