Tickmill UK Fundamental Analysis

[TickmillNews]

US data may drive EURUSD lower, providing good buying opportunity


Another leg of USD rally took place yesterday amid sell-off in US equities. The bout of risk aversion was fueled by the comment of the US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen that a rate hike may be needed to prevent economy from overheating. The caused market turbulence in various asset classes, including stocks and USD, revealed lack of trust of investors to the Fed comments, showing that the Fed pledge to keep rates low and the stance on inflation (“we see inflation as temporary factor”) are taken with a grain of salt. Yellen later clarified that her comment was not a recommendation or a forecast for an interest rate hike, which is not surprising, because just a week ago we saw very cautious Fed rhetoric regarding rate hikes. Fed Speaker Charles Evans' speech today is likely to address market rumors sparked by the Yellen remark.

The last three upside swings in USD were distinguished with length of the waves getting progressively shorter, while meeting resistance at the two-week high of 91.40:



Such a price action, together with the stabilization of ATR and RSI near their averages, often precedes a breakout move. Taking into account the pressure of buyers its vector will likely be positive. The breakdown catalyst is expected to be the Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday.

Two other reports to look out for are the ADP US Job Growth Data and the ISM Service Sector Index. They will play an important role in shaping expectations for the NFP. The ADP is expected to point to an increase in jobs of 850,000 in April, while the ISM index is expected to rise from 63.7 to 64.3 points. Particular attention should be paid to the hiring component of the ISM index, as its predictive power in relation to the NFP report is quite significant. The two strong reports also once again could cast doubt on the Fed's ability to maintain current degree of monetary easing, which, in particular, may result in faster growth in long-dated bond yields. As I wrote on Monday, news and data flow this week favors tactical strengthening of USD as the reports on the US economy take central place in the economic calendar this week and risks are shifted towards positive surprises in the data.

For EURUSD, the breakdown of lower border of the trend channel disabled it for some time, but there was no particular rush to sell near the critical 1.20 level as seen from little pressure in RSI:






In this regard, the level can equally act as a foothold for growth after completion of the correction. The 1.1950 test on the release of US statistics looks like a logical scenario, but let’s not forget what drove the recent strengthening of EURUSD - progress in vaccinations, European fiscal stimulus and economic data. Next week, the news background is expected to be more favorable for the growth of the European currency.



Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

[TickmillNews]

US data disappoints, laying the groundwork for weaker NFP expectations


Brent price failed to break above the $70 level on Wednesday, as buyers' appetite is still constrained by some demand risks. Concerns about demand in India as well as expectations that OPEC will soon begin to lift output restrictions weigh on prices. Recovery of Iranian supply also makes growth more cautious. Although it now seems that the market will be able to absorb new supply, there are risks that the outlook for demand will become less optimistic, which will lead to a more fragile balance in the market.
Saudi Arabia has announced its June OSP prices and, given OPEC's concerns about demand and upcoming production increases, prices for Asia have been cut an additional 10 cents. The Saudis have also lowered prices for other regions, for example for Europe the over-benchmark premium has been reduced in all grades. However, US prices have been raised. The multidirectional movement of price discounts for different regions suggests that OPEC evaluates the prospects for a recovery in demand in different ways, and also takes into account different levels of risks.
The EIA report showed that oil stockpiles in the United States fell by 7.99 million barrels in the reporting week, which significantly exceeded the forecast of -2 million barrels. This strong decline was driven by several factors, in particular increased capacity utilization rates of refineries. Now it is at its highest level since March last year. Oil exports increased by 1.58 mln bpd to 4.12 mln bpd. Only four times in history US oil exports topped 4 million bpd what looks like an indication of a really strong near-term oil demand picture, especially for US supply.
Technically, the corrective rally in oil after breakout of the key trend line took place in a narrowing channel, which indicates a keen buying pressure. The price approached the March high however potential breakout of the main resistance line is likely to be short-lived (false breakout), since risks in the news background are shifted towards neutral and negative events (growth in Iranian output, US shale oil recovery, planned increase in production OPEC, etc.). Most of the positive on the demand side has already been priced in by the market in one way or another:



Yesterday data on ADP and ISM in the US were not as strong as expected which became a major disappointment. The growth of jobs according to ADP was 742K (forecast 800K), the ISM index did not live up to expectations:



With this data in mind, optimism about Friday's NFP declined. This eased pressure on long-term yields and the dollar. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries retreated as less strong labor market growth would mean less acceleration in inflation – the biggest threat of real bond returns currently:



It is clear that the risk of a weaker NFP report has risen, so the markets could start to brace for a negative surprise on Friday. If the report does turn out to be so, the bearish trend in the dollar is likely to resume, as more inconsistencies will appear in the story with higher inflation in the US.


Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

[TickmillNews]

Real rates story unfolds not in favor of USD

A number of central banks held monetary policy meetings this week. They clearly showed a tendency to speak or take decisions related to the tightening of monetary policy. Brazil, following the Russian Federation, raised its key rate from 2.75% to 3.5%. Overall, emerging market economies are shifting from talk to action and lift interest rates in response to rising inflationary pressures. The G10 countries have progressed much less in this sense, but those of them that at least talk about raising rates or reducing QE have successfully drawn attention of foreign investors. Among them are Canada and Norway, which were relatively open about their plans to curtail credit stimulus, which sent their currencies higher against USD.
Yet in the US, we have a radically new Fed approach to stimulating growth and employment. It implies low rates even though there is clear progress in inflation. If other central banks are not going to play this melody, and apparently, they are less inclined to do that, their real interest rates will likely rise faster compared with the real rates in the US. Of course, this dynamic will gradually put pressure on the dollar, as investors will follow the Central Banks that tighten policy, thus pushing higher real returns on local assets.
That is why this week we saw emotional market reaction to the awkward remark of the US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, that economy overheating may require interest rate hikes to tame it. To avoid confusion with the Fed guidance, she was quick to clarify that she does not predict and does not recommend a rate hike. Yesterday, Fed representative Robert Kaplan said that it is equally important not to be late with policy tightening, as asset market bubbles and excessive risk-taking fueled by low interest rate environment increases vulnerability to actual Fed tightening.
Focus today on April NFP report. The market expects job growth by 1 million. A positive surprise could in theory mean that the Fed is moving faster towards the employment target, and therefore may begin to phase out monetary stimulus earlier. Therefore, a positive surprise in the data is likely to trigger a new sell-off in long bonds and hit the dollar, as from the discussion above, the situation with real rates in the US will change to the worse for the dollar. In addition, in other large economies, data continues to improve, which changes the forecast for local real rates in a positive direction. This includes data on PMI in China, as well as European statistics released this week. A strong NFP report is likely to allow the dollar index to touch the 90.50 level:




Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

[TickmillNews]

Weak April NFP: What does it mean for Dollar and US stocks?


April Non-Farm Payrolls report was a huge blow to expectations of an early Fed policy tightening. Despite generally strong economic background in April, jobs count printed three times less than the forecast of ~1M. Of the more than 50 surveyed economists by Bloomberg, only two of them forecasted jobs growth below 800K. Unemployment rate surprisingly trended higher as well. The Fed's status quo with regard to low rates and QE has gotten a solid excuse, which together with strong commodity inflation outlook ensures further focus of the debt market on inflation risks. What this means for stocks and greenback is discussed below.

The 10-year Treasury yields, after initial downward spike on fears of slower growth in the US, trimmed decline quickly and closed near the opening on Friday:





What could it mean? Bond investors might not perceive weak job growth as an alarming symptom for the economy: such nuances as a shortage of labor supply due to generous government benefits, significant seasonal adjustments suggested to focus on the trend in US jobs growth, rather than on a single month’s print.

The report removed one of the key hurdles to USD downtrend - the risk of early tightening of the Fed's monetary policy. Risk assets got the welcomed mix of moderate growth prospects and stronger guarantees of cheap liquidity that’s why we saw confident rally on Friday. SPX rallied to new ATH, closing close to a record high, while index futures pulled back only marginally on Monday.

Iron ore futures, one of the benchmarks for commodity inflation, jumped 8% on Monday, which is likely to slowly but surely fuel worries in bonds:





Also on Friday, we saw a new record in inflation expectations in the US following the release of the report:





Given the dynamics of commodity prices, this trend is likely to continue, that is, more downward pressure is coming for real rates in the US. This will also add pressure on USD and spur search for the yield, both in alternative asset classes (stocks) and bonds outside the United States, where the prospects for tightening Central Bank policy are better and inflation risks are less severe than in the US. In terms of the FX implications for the major currency pairs, EURUSD and GBPUSD, we are likely to see continued gains this week with targets at 1.2250-1.23 and 1.42-1.4250 respectively.


Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

[TickmillNews]

High inflation concerns could be the reason for more stock market pain


US tech sector saw onslaught of selling orders on Monday, pulling down the universe of risk assets. Nasdaq market cap erased 2.5%, which was the deepest pullback in several months. The rest of equity indices saw less severe declines, however, gloomy sentiment stretched on Tuesday – US equity futures extended decline, strong weakness is also felt in European markets.

Correction in risk assets once again helped greenback to dodge a sell-off. The dollar index bounced off 90 level, however the rebound has fizzled out near 90.35 mark.

Long-term interest rates in the US renewed rally, rising to their weekly high (1.62%).

It’s hard to pin down exact causes of the pullback, however consensus in the media is that anxiety about inflation outlook gained critical mass, provoking sell-off. In fact, in addition to the official data indicating revival of US inflation to the level not seen in a decade, there are some alternative gauges suggesting that inflation rate in the near future may indeed cause economic discomfort. Here is, for example, a comparison of inflation rates and mentions of the word "inflation" in earnings calls of US companies:





The number of mentions soared 800% and considering the correlation of this indicator with inflation rate, the United States can indeed expect a period of relatively high rates of price growth in the near future as firms will likely pass increased costs to consumers.

Inflation has also started to appear more frequently in Google searches:





The number of searches of “inflation” is at all-time high signaling that consumers could become more concerned about inflation outlook. This indirectly indicates that consumer inflation expectations are set to increase further, making it even harder for the Fed to call inflation a transitory phenomenon.

If inflation is really a concern for the markets, Wednesday CPI report may become a new catalyst for equities decline if price growth accelerates considerably above forecasts. So, it could make sense to wait and see April inflation print before trying to buy the dip in equities or enter USD shorts.

Key events for the rest of the week:

- Speeches by representatives of the Fed, in particular, FOMC member Lael Brainard on Tuesday.

- OPEC's monthly report, which will include crucial production and demand forecasts for Q3.

- The US CPI report on Wednesday, which could heighten market concerns about high inflation in the near future.

- Bank of England Governor Bailey is scheduled to speak Wednesday at which the UK's QE reduction will be likely discussed.


Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

[TickmillNews]

The risk of commodity markets correction creates buying opportunity in USDCAD


On Wednesday we see first signs of easing bearish grip on equities after the two-day violent selling. European markets are trading in positive area, US equity futures show some signs of distress ahead of the April US CPI release.

The foreign exchange market looks calm today, the slump in US equities offered temporary reprieve to USD. However, greenback fundamentals continue evolve towards more bearish pressure on the currency. One of the key reasons to sell is deteriorating real interest rate outlook in the US. The Fed’s policy tightening hopes were shattered after dismal April NFP release, while the fears of high inflation in the US, even temporary one, continue to mount. The sources of inflationary pressures are rising wages and the strong uptrend in raw materials. Recall that MoM US wage growth in April surged to 0.7% (0% expected), which is a really strong print, likely pointing to some labor shortage issues, while the Bloomberg commodity price index began to grow in early April at worrying pace:





Most likely, a correction in commodity markets will soon follow, which will primarily catch on significantly strengthened commodity currencies, such as AUD and CAD. Therefore, it is reasonable to expect their growth peaking in the near future. Particularly interesting in terms of the prospects for a rebound is the USDCAD pair, which is now at its lowest level since September 2017, which also coincides with the psychologically important area of 1.20:





US inflation is expected to accelerate to 3.6% y/y in April, but given stock markets reaction to inflation fears this week, some upside surprise, like 4% print can be already priced in. Inflation growth above forecasts is likely to keep the pressure on USD, given Fed’s Vice Chair Clarida speech today confirms the commitment to keep rates low despite inflation threat. Nevertheless, the dynamics in the stock market and geopolitics (exacerbating conflict in the Gaza Strip) should be the primary drivers of USD till the end of the week.

The move in USD in the Wednesday morning has barely affected low-yielding currencies, including the euro. Despite a significant improvement in the EU’s virus situation and progress in vaccinations, which creates a strong support in EUR, short-term dynamics will depend on USD moves. The same can be said for GBPUSD, where the recent rally requires both a profit-taking pullback and more data on the British economy. The signal from the Bank of England that policy tightening may start earlier than planned has been priced in by the GBPUSD during the recent strengthening to 1.42. Nevertheless, both the pound and the euro retain prospects for further strengthening against USD, in particular after there are signs that equity markets correction is done and risk-on dominates again.


Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

[TickmillNews]

Commodity market rally hits pause putting commdollars under pressure



Risk assets and oil remain under pressure on Monday while gold and other safe heavens are marginally higher. Among numerous market developments we would note stabilization of commodity prices after the rapid growth in April - early March:





The Bloomberg commodity index posted a local top on May 12 and then started to retreat. At the same time, we saw a pullback in a number of market bets associated with expectations of accelerated consumer inflation. First, the yield on long-dated US Treasury bonds started to ease last week:





As it can be seen on the chart, the yield jumped last week on US CPI report release, however it couldn’t sustain gains - having climbed to 1.70%, the yield steadily declined in the second half of the week. Material pro-inflationary surprise in US retail sales on Friday was apparently discounted by the Treasury market as the yield continued to slide on Friday.

Second, commodity currencies, which uptrend were fueled by the rise in commodity prices, embarked on a downtrend: at the time of writing, AUDUSD is down 0.41%, NZDUSD is 0.66%, USDCAD is up 0.23%. At the same time, their weakness could not be attributed to the broad strengthening of the dollar, as the US currency declined against the EUR and GBP.

The commodity market could be under pressure due to the increase in the incidence of Covid-19 in the Asian region last week and related new restrictions. In addition, PPI and the component of input prices in manufacturing PMIs in the US, Europe, and some Asian economies rose strongly in April. For example, in deflationary Japan, wholesale prices rose at their fastest pace in six and a half years, data showed on Monday. High prices for production factors could become an inhibiting factor for activity in the sector, as a result, the demand for raw materials could find a local high. Also, worth noting is the weak data on the Chinese economy, released on Monday. Growth in retail sales has lagged well behind forecasts, dampening risk appetite.

Earlier I wrote that overheated by historical standards commodity market is poised to cool down, which can hit primarily commodity currencies. Taking into account synchronized developments in commodity and Treasury market, commodity dollars, correction could be already under way, which creates selling opportunities. Particularly vulnerable in this regard are CAD, AUD and NZD, which advanced by an average of 9% against the USD since the start of “commodity supercycle” in November 2020.

Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

[TickmillNews]

Oil’s retest of key resistance levels leaves USD vulnerable to attack


The rally in Asian equity markets, positive news flow regarding the virus as well as oil move towards key levels, sparking momentum in the rest of commodity complex, put USD under great pressure on Tuesday. The FOMC Minutes release today may secure the breakout below 90 points in the DXY as the Fed will most likely reiterate its uber-dovish stance that they remain committed to easing. In Europe, the progress in easing of social restrictions lifted bullish sentiment in the Euro.

The next target in USD index is the area of 89.72-89.50, where a medium-term low was formed in the end of February:





In terms of momentum, the move was clearly excessive as seen from the RSI dropping to extreme levels (<20 points). This fact increases chances for a technical pullback from the support area towards 90 level before we could resumption of the medium-term downside.

Brent crude oil benchmark pierced through $70/bbl resistance for the first time since mid-March amid signs of declining global inventories as reopening of economies fuels a boom in demand, including demand for basic commodities like oil. An important signal that sets the stage for bullish oil move is a welcomed decrease in daily cases growth in India which is one of the largest oil consumers in the world. The virus situation in Asia is improving despite a spate of negative headlines hitting the wires in the second half of the past week, as governments managed to avoid worst-case scenario - continued increase in positivity rates and harsher social distancing measures.

Last week, the IEA reported that the oil glut accumulated during the pandemic had been cleared thanks to fast recovery in demand. The news fueled rumors that the market can face deficit in supplies in which lifted prices of near-term contracts compared to longer ones. Futures spreads in the oil market widened signaling that backwardation state intensified.

On the technical front, oil keeps developing a bullish picture. This week we saw a retest of the previous resistance level at $70 while the uptrend remained intact. If quotes manage to close above $70 per barrel, the next target is the level of 71.22 which is the intersection of the upper bound of current uptrend and the prices peak in 2021:






Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

[TickmillNews]

Economic surprises drive EUR, GBP gains

Asian markets retreated while European equities and US stock index futures failed to sustain recent rebound, turning red on Wednesday. Dollar index rebounded after a dip to the February low of 89.70 amid renewed bearish pressure in risk assets.
Oil has once again failed the task of gaining a foothold above the key resistance ($70 for Brent) and went down. In addition, a negative news background arrived in time - progress on the Iran deal and an unexpected increase in commercial oil reserves in the United States.
The UK inflation data showed that the economy could not escape the fate of other countries - production prices rose strongly amid signs of raw materials shortages and supply bottlenecks. The demand for inventories is rising at the fastest pace in years due to the overreaction of firms to consumer demand boom. Firms are trying to replenish inventories with some excess anticipating more shortage, which basically creates a self-reinforcing loop. Building pressures in producer prices are expected to eventually find way to consumer prices, so pressure on central banks stemming from economic data will likely remain on the rise.
Inflation of retail goods in Britain beat forecast, which is expected to prompt the Bank of England to be among the first to use more aggressive rhetoric. Despite USD bouncing off February lows and adding pressure on the Pound, the British currency appears to be targeting highs of 2021, and then of April 2018 thanks to strong fundamental component (April employment + inflation) and the fact that the uptrend on the daily timeframe still has a large margin of movement - the price is below the median line of the bullish channel:



The European currency continues to stay strong in the pair with USD against the background of the weakening of the latter. The news flow related to easing of restrictions in European countries subdues risks for economic growth which pressures risk premium in EU equities and bonds. Since information of this kind on the US economy were priced in 1-2 months earlier, the equilibrium in expectations should have been restored when the Old World moved to the final phase of lifting lockdowns.
From a technical point of view, the picture for EURUSD is similar to GPBUSD - the peaks of 2021 and 2018 have yet to be overcome:



The Fed is to release the minutes of the April meeting today. The Central Bank has more or less definitely expressed its stance, but the markets do not really believe that the Fed will tolerate growing inflation risks. The content of the Minutes is expected to focus on the pledge to keep rates low, which could potentially have a moderately downside impact on the US currency. However, the risk of resumption of decline in the US markets is increasing, which may again provide unexpected support for the USD.

Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

[TickmillNews]

The risk of early Fed QE withdrawal fails to soothe USD bears


There was a slight increase in bearish pressure on US currency on Monday as support from two key factors – rising long-term US yields and sell-off in risk assets (i.e., stock market, flagged. Equity markets posted weak upward bias, while long-term yields continue their decline that commenced last week.

The attention of market participants and the bulk of volatility has been concentrated on the commodity and cryptocurrency market in the past few weeks. Both markets saw strong ups and downs of different intensity on claims, that Chinese authorities aimed to suppress excessive speculation. The media are exaggerating a four-year-old ban on the use and mining of cryptocurrencies, for some reason presenting it as fresh restrictions. As for commodity markets, an article appeared on a website close to the PBOC that the Central Bank would allow the yuan to strengthen in response to rising commodity prices, which was subsequently removed. In general, all the latest corrections in the asset markets are in some way tied to China.

If China succeeds in cooling down commodity markets, this should have implications for the path of consumer inflation, since production costs (including commodity prices) are its one of the key sources. In this case, criticism of the Fed due to inaction in response to rising inflation should diminish, which will further pressure USD.

Despite high volatility in the commodities and cryptocurrency markets, FX and equity markets appear to be much less nervous. If central banks are currently concerned about speculation in traditional markets, it is only in their financial stability reports, which invariably contain a chapter on excessive speculation. So, nothing unusual here.

Low volatility is known to promote rotation from US assets to high-yielding ones, which is a process with a negative connotation for the American currency. Last week, the risk of early withdrawal of stimulus by the Fed suddenly increased against the background of the publication of the April Fed Minutes, in which "a number" of policymakers expressed their readiness to start discussing the reduction of QE. Contrary to expectations, this brought minimal relief to the dollar. Hence this week, the bearish trend in the USD can be expected to resume. I would consider the target for the dollar index in the area of the last support at 89.65:



ECB President Lagarde with her comments slowed down the rally of European bond yields last Friday, which offered additional support to EURUSD. The EU economic calendar is rather dull this week, the IFO report on German sentiment may increase volatility in the euro, but not for long. The key report this week is likely to be Core PCE in the US, which is slated for release on Friday.

Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

[TickmillNews]

Is it time to long oil? Declining US yields call for patience

Oil prices stood offered on Tuesday after rising 3% on Monday, nevertheless swaying close to weekly highs as concerns that Iranian oil supply could quickly return to the market eased. This helped to shift market focus back to demand outlook.
Brent jumped 3% on Monday while WTI gained 4% on reports that an outcome in the talks on Iranian nuclear deal remains highly uncertain. Oil market is sensitive to the reports regarding progress in the talks because the deal between US and Iran will almost certainly mean that oil selling restrictions will be lifted. This is potentially additional 2M b/d supply which won’t be easy for the oil market to absorb. At the same time, data on manufacturing PMI, as well as in the service sector in the economies-major oil consumers indicated continued growth in demand for fuel, which gives hope for a stronger third quarter compared to the second.
US production data indicate that US oil production is lagging behind the consumer boom, which may indicate a weakening of competition between US shale producers and OPEC.
Indirect talks between the US and Iran are due to resume in Vienna this week. Iran previously extended an agreement with the UN's nuclear agency for outside monitoring of its nuclear program, signaling the United States that it is ready to revive negotiations.
The key signal for continued growth in oil prices may be a decrease in the incidence of Covid-19 in India, which will give hope that the country will move to recovery and lift restrictions earlier. The incidence in the third-largest oil consumption country in the world has receded from peaks, but is still high compared to the global rates. On Monday, the daily growth was 222Kcases, which is less than the absolute maximum of 400K, but still hinders economic recovery, including oil imports:



The weakness in oil on Tuesday coincided with slump in 10-year US bond yields. This may indicate that there are some questions to the risk of accelerating inflation in the world so fast oil price recovery is unlikely. Technically, oil is in a diverging downside channel, with a sloping lower bound indicating that selling pressure prevails:



Long can be considered after the price consolidates above resistance line, i.e. in the area of $66.50 - $ 67.00 in WTI.


Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

[TickmillNews]

Fed participates to the growing chorus of hawkish Central Banks

Fed officials are beginning to gradually acknowledge that they are getting closer to the point where they begin to discuss a reduction in massive monetary support for the economy.

"We are talking about talking about tapering" said the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Daly, indicating that the policymakers are in the earliest phase of discussing an exit from the anti-crisis monetary policy as possible, so a reduction in QE should not be expected soon.

Fed Vice President Richard Clarida made a similar announcement on Tuesday. He said that at one of the upcoming meetings, officials may begin to discuss a reduction in the pace of asset purchases. Ultimately, however, the fate of this debate will depend on incoming economic data.

A month ago, Fed Chief Powell said it is premature to even think about when this kind of discussion would begin. This week saw the first noticeable shift in the rhetoric of the Fed officials which had some implications for debt, equity and FX markets. Let’s discuss them.

In sovereign debt markets, we are witnessing decline in long-term yields not only in the United States, but also on German and British debt. In addition to the pullback in commodity prices, which alleviates the lion's share of fears about inflation, large central banks such as the Bank of England, Canada, New Zealand, and now also to some extent the Fed are signaling that smooth transition to normal monetary policy looms on the horizon which should also curb inflation growth to some extent. That’s why long-term bonds saw inflows as investors demanded less inflation premium in the yield:



Against the background of growing rhetoric of policymakers around the world about policy normalization, which becomes more and more synchronous, it will become increasingly difficult for risk assets to rally to new highs. There are not enough reasons for a full-blown correction yet, however bets on further rally are likely to be much more cautious, as liquidation of one of the key drivers that fuels risk-taking looms on the horizon.

The lack of reaction of USD index in response to the comments of the Fed representatives suggests that the shift in rhetoric was more or less expected. Since other Central Banks are not lagging behind, and even ahead of the Fed on the path towards policy normalization, downside pressure on the dollar from this point of view remains the same. Technically, the retest of the 4-month low on the dollar index (89.65) was unsuccessful, price failed to move below the level. Bulls took the lead and today the price is developing an upward momentum. In the near-term, a correction to 90.20 is likely, given the difficulties of the US stock market in continuation of the rally:



Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

[TickmillNews]

Dollar rebound will likely to be short-lived. Here is why


The dollar index has crept above 90 level after the failed bearish retest of support at 89.65 which we discussed yesterday. However, it will be tough to extend the move as the Fed is probably months ahead of the start of QE tapering, while other Central Banks are much more specific about the timeframe of policy tightening. A prime example was the Bank of New Zealand, which announced that it intends to start hiking interest rates at the end of next year. NZDUSD jumped 1% due to RBNZ surprise, but there is still room to grow given support from commodity markets and breakout of the crucial mid-term downtrend line:





The annual symposium in Jackson Hole, which is widely expected to be the place and time when the Fed will outline concrete steps towards reduction of assets purchases, will take place in August. What it means that there are at least two months of little support for USD from the Fed which suggests that broad USD pressure should remain in place and any upticks should be short-lived.


The economic calendar is not particularly eventful today, so EURUSD is expected to remain in a range, hovering around 1.22 level. The release of US unemployment claims and some weakness in equities today will probably let USD to rise a little bit more with a possible test of 1.2150 on the pair. The comments of the ECB officials that the rise in inflation is temporary should be interpreted as a subtle hint that there is no immediate need to start discussion about reduction of QE, which somewhat reduces bidding on EURUSD.


The Pound’s rally is on pause due to the lack of data releases. Reports that Scotland wants to hold an independence referendum after pandemic do not pose an immediate risk, as it is unlikely that this will happen in the current parliamentary term. GBPUSD may move to 1.4080, however, given strong fundamentals of Britain, the pair is likely to be readily bought out from this level.


In the Asian part of the foreign exchange market, there is some also growing consensus about direction of the USD. The three main Asian currencies - the yuan, won and the Taiwan dollar - joined the pressure on the dollar about 10 days ago, which, of course, also does not add confidence about the prospects for the US currency:





Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

[TickmillNews]

USD tactical retreat is probably over. What to expect on this week?



No sooner had the US economy felt the effect of the two rounds of powerful fiscal spending, it is already being prepared for a new dose of steroids. However, this time, government support could last for a decade. On Thursday President Biden presented a federal budget plan for the next ten years. As part of the budget proposal, the state plans to boost spending to $6 trillion in 2022 and gradually bring it to $8.2 trillion in 2031. The budget deficit will grow by about $ 1.3 trillion/year while debt-to-GDP ratio will balloon to 117%. And this is taking into account proposed tax hikes by the Democrats. If Biden can enlist the support of Congress on this issue, US public debt will rise at the fastest level since the Second World War.

Equity markets cheered the news of a new long-term economic stimulus. Industrial metal prices also rebounded, as the US government plans to spend a significant portion of stimulus on renovating the economy. The news caused some anxiety in the US debt market as seen from 10-Year Treasury note yield rising rose from 1.58% to 1.61%, as market participants interpreted the news as a risk of increased long-term government borrowing.

Many details of the plan are still unknown and will be made public later, and there is little information about how Congress will react to the proposal, which, by the way, is controlled by Biden's party colleagues. And although this fact has a positive effect on the chances of approval, it remains unclear whether the Republicans can block the proposal, as well as how the final figures will differ from the original ones.

The foreign exchange market’s reaction to the news from the White House was quite tepid. The dollar index keeps consolidating near the upper border of the two-month channel, signaling about the risk of a breakout:





Breakout and consolidation higher, albeit unlikely today, could lay the foundation for continued growth next week. The upward movement could be triggered by the April Core PCE release today. Otherwise, the tactical upward correction of the dollar is likely to come to an end, and next week we will see the resumption of the medium-term downward trend, which is caused primarily by the divergence of the Fed's policy and the policies of other Central Banks.

As for the euro, the ECB seems to have succeeded in convincing market participants that no QE cut is planned in the near future. We see this from the sharp decline in yield on 10-year German bonds - from a peak of -0.07% to -0.17% in a very short span of time after comments from several ECB officials. Therefore, this support factor has weakened in the euro, and we see not very confident upside dynamics of EURUSD. Nonetheless, interest in the euro is high from equity investors, as evidenced by the influx of foreign investors into value equity ETFs in the Eurozone. Over the past few weeks, this inflow has been the highest in several years.

Technically, EURUSD may try to break through the lower border of the channel, however, the horizontal support at 1.2160-1.2170 is likely to withstand, preserving integrity of the channel:





Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

[TickmillNews]

Dollar outlook for the week: more sales ahead of the NFP


On Monday, the dollar index struggles to maintain support at 90 points. The attempt to go up on the inflation report failed miserably on Friday:



Annual inflation in the US in April was the highest in several decades - +3.1%. At the peak of the previous expansion, in 2006, it was 2.9%. Despite the fact that market forecasts underestimated inflation (2.9% consensus), the debt market received the news rather coolly. The yield of the 10-year Treasuries barely flickered on the report. It would seem that the risk of accelerated inflation rates in the US increased after the report, because of which investors should have demanded an increased yield on long-term Treasuries, but contrary to expectations, the yield fell from 1.61% to 1.59% at the close.

Strong inflation readings in April-May can be explained by the low base effect - in the same month last year the US lockdown was in full swing, which dragged inflation down. Compared to that month, things are looking very good now. The second potential explanation is that investors in the Treasury market believed the Fed's words that inflation was caused by temporary drivers and would soon begin to slow down. Therefore, there is no reason to dump long-term bonds.

However, if we see another increase in inflation rate in May, there will be some kind of trend, so anxiety, most likely, cannot be avoided. Therefore, bear in mind that the markets will most likely start to worry about increased inflation in the coming months.

Important statistics were also released for Asia. China released a manufacturing activity index for May, while South Korea reported factory output. Key findings - costs are growing (cost of raw materials + labor), and the growth of export orders is slowly slowing down. For example, the index of the cost of raw materials rose to 72.8 points (50 is neutral) - this is the maximum since 2010. At the same time, the index of new orders fell to 48.3 points, that is, it became worse than in April. Together, these dynamics tell us that if pickup of commodity prices continue, it will likely be much slower. Rather, stabilization in the market awaits us.

It should also be noted that small firms in China have probably passed the peak of growth rates - their margins are squeezed by rising commodity prices and difficulties in transferring this inflation to the consumer. The index of activity of small firms in China fell from 50.8 immediately to 48.8 points.

The May Non-Farm Payrolls report is also due this week. Weak job growth in April exacerbated the negative trend in the dollar, as the chances of a Fed rate hike diminished. All May because of this, the dollar was under pressure:



It is highly probable that the foreign exchange market will unravel the consequences of the May report throughout June. The thing is that in April the labor supply lagged behind the demand for labor, so few new jobs were created. Preliminary data for May (jobless claims, hiring indices in PMI reports) shows little change. Therefore, the report may again fall short of expectations. The Fed will have more time to delay with low rates, since their goal is jobs. The dollar could suffer again.

On the technical side, we are using the setup from last Friday. USD index failed to settle above the upper border of the channel on Friday, so the control, I believe, rests with the sellers. Closer to the NFP release, the pressure on the dollar is likely to mount, and we will see a retest of support at 89.65.


Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

[TickmillNews]

Oil breakout sets the stage for the rally towards $75 mark


Trading on FX was calm and uninteresting on Monday as UK and US markets were closed due to holidays. On Tuesday, we saw a weak attempt by the greenback to recover after the currency tumbled against majors yesterday. In the economic calendar, reports on the US economy stand out, the closest of which is the ISM index in the US manufacturing. Markets will look for confirmation that supply bottlenecks continue and costs are on the rise, particularly labor costs. The latter effect could hamper job creation, so it could negatively affect expectations ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls release on Friday.

However, if the data can influence the Fed's policy, it will likely do it in the way that it increases chances that there will be no premature tightening of credit conditions. For the dollar, this will have a negative effect, as other central banks are pursuing quite a hawkish policy, increasing interest in local assets. This leads to rebalancing of investment portfolios, causing USD outflows.

The economic recovery is increasingly difficult to deny, so OPEC is thinking about a new increase in production quotas. The agency updated forecasts to even more bullish however there is still some uncertainty about production hike which markets used to stage breakout in prices. In addition, the rally was facilitated by the data that OPEC did not fully "use" the May increase in production while return of Iran to the market turned out to be more modest than expected.

From the technical point of view, the sharp upward movement of oil on Tuesday looked like a breakout from the range, in which the quotes were held about a month:





In order for the rally to gain traction, it is desirable to see a consolidation above $69.70 - $70 per barrel for Brent and, of course, lack of aggressive plans of OPEC to close output gap (i.e., increase production fast). A correction after the breakout will probably follow the decision of OPEC and the communique, however, given the latest demand forecasts, the market should be able to absorb this increase in supply. If OPEC decides not to rush to increase production, in July we can easily see a rally to $75 per barrel in Brent.

Before the ECB meeting, it is important to know what is happening with inflation in the European economy and today's CPI report came in handy. Inflation in May turned out to be slightly better than forecasted, which supported the European currency, as there are expectations that the ECB may start cutting QE earlier, but for this there should be a signal in the data. Unemployment also dropped to a new low after the pandemic - 8%. The meeting of the European regulator will take place on June 10 and the foreign exchange market is now inclined price in positive data updates by gaining more exposure to the euro.

Technically, EURUSD breakdown ended unsuccessfully last Friday, and the new week was marked by continuation of the rally:






A short-term correction to the area of 1.22100 to the lower border of the ascending channel is possible before the movement towards the target 1.23 will resume.



Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

[TickmillNews]

May NFP could fuel USD rally all next week

The odds of the Fed departing from the policy of cheap money earlier than previously expected rose sharply on Thursday after release of the ADP report. The private research agency made highly upbeat assessment of labor market growth in May, estimating job growth at 978K which was significantly above the consensus (~600K). The dollar and long-dated US government bonds were apparently surprised by the labor market rebound:



After the April NFP report, which was a big miss as jobs growth was three times lower than consensus, there was a great deal of uncertainty about the direction of the US economy. The market basically split into two camps - some believed that the sharp slowdown in job growth in April was a turning point in the post-pandemic recovery trend, others that it was an outlier, and therefore more data is needed to verify the onset of slowdown. The Fed, by the way, belonged to the second camp. In a sense, the May report should have judged this dispute. Given that the ADP figure correlates with NFP estimate, there was no need to wait for NFP to know whom to believe - the strong positive surprise in the ADP data convinced that the US economic recovery is in full swing and the April data was likely a quirk.

As a result, the real interest rate and market inflation expectations in the US resumed growth again after the data. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes rose from 1.59% to 1.62% and the dollar index soared to 90.50. Since the Fed seeks to ensure maximum employment in the economy (in accordance with the new policy concept) by keeping rates low, strong job growth is quickly moving it closer to this goal, therefore, market interpretation of the report could be a rising risk of an early policy tightening. In the context of the current stimulus setting, this may mean that the Fed will start talking about QE tapering already at its meeting on June 16, which is close at hand.

Technically, the dollar index broke the bearish trend it had been in since April after several attempts to break the support at 89.65 failed. If the NFP report beats estimates coming significantly above the 600K consensus today (for example, 900-950K growth), one should expect USD to extend its rally towards 91 points on the index:




The reading of 700-800K is probably priced in based on the ADP data. If the NFP reading disappoints posting growth of 600K or lower (an unlikely scenario), the dollar can be expected to fall as fast as yesterday's growth.
In EURUSD there is a risk of going down to 1.2050 on a strong NFP. Next week, attention will be focused on the ECB meeting, which may provide support to the euro, given that data on the European economy also give reason to expect a tightening of ECB policy.
As for the GBPUSD, the revision of the composite PMI towards strengthening did not help the pound to resist the dollar onslaught. A positive NFP surprise today will allow testing 1.4050 today, however the Bank of England maintains a more hawkish policy than the ECB or in the future the Fed, so the weakening of GBPUSD is likely to be less strong than EURUSD.

Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

[TickmillNews]

US inflation report may cause a major move in USD. Here is why.


Last week, the struggle between USD bulls and bears was unusually evident: the dollar index jumped from 90 to 90.50 points following release of the ADP labor market report, however bullish bets were dialed back completely as the NFP report came out:



This unusual for FX move was caused by really contrasting assessments of labor market situation in the ADP and the NFP. The former reported that the US economy gained more than 900K jobs in May, while the latter failed to meet even modest forecast of 600K. The progress in employment, as USD volatility showed last week, is a direct indicator of the chances of early tightening by the Fed, which in turn generates demand for dollar fixed-income assets and ultimately the dollar.

This week, US inflation report will determine the fate of the bearish USD trend. The data is due on Thursday. The rise in US consumer prices can easily beat forecasts, but it is unlikely to cause a big surprise: inflation hit the bottom in April-May last year (0 - 0.1%), so it will be easy to attribute acceleration to the low base effect:



By the way, inflation overshoot last month (forecast 3.6%, actual reading 4.2%) was quickly absorbed by the market, which can be seen from the USD reaction:



Having jumped up, the dollar returned to the downward track in a few days. This gives a rough understanding of what the market's reaction might be if the data show strong inflation in May.

The real surprise will be if May inflation drops below forecast. There will be a good opportunity to short the dollar, as the Fed will have a serious reason to think about whether it is too early to move on to policy tightening. We already saw last Friday that anything that signals about deceleration of recovery boosts chances for the Fed “lower-for-longer” stance, crushing USD. May inflation report, in its possible impact, is most likely no exception.

By the way, also on Thursday the ECB holds a policy meeting and the central bank chief Christine Lagarde speaks. More certainty on tapering of the current main asset purchase program, PEPP, should be a clear-cut signal for EURUSD rally. However, there should be little urge to move with tapering as long-term German bond yields retreated from highs of this year, signaling about subdued inflation concerns. That’s why the ECB may prefer to focus on talking down Euro to support local exports.

Technically, EURUSD's brisk rebound from 1.211 up last Friday showed that EURUSD weakened on expectations that the NFP would confirm the ADP data, which surprisingly did not happen. If we don't see anything extraordinary about US inflation on Thursday, EURUSD will tend to keep moving up.


Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

[TickmillNews]

Only strong US inflation in May can save USD

The dollar holds its ground on Tuesday counting on a strong positive surprise in the US May inflation report. The release is due on Thursday. Yellen's comments that high interest rates will be a plus for the economy went unnoticed by investors, since the rhetoric of the US Treasury head has no immediate consequences.

The ZEW report on the business climate in Germany for June fell short of expectations, but assessment of the current conditions beat forecasts. The mixed report deprived EURUSD of the opportunity to re-break the 1.22 level, as there is no over-optimism in the German economy and there are not so many reasons for the ECB to rush to tighten policy.

It is also worth paying attention to the NFIB report on small business in the United States. If it confirms that the reason for the weak May Non-Farm Payrolls was a lack of labor supply (as was the case in April), expectations for inflation in the United States in May will also have to be revised towards higher growth, since it is obvious that employers have to raise wages and these costs will translate into an increase in final prices. Recall that according to the Non-Farm Payrolls report, monthly wage growth was 0.5% (0.2% forecast), which indicates increased risks of accelerated US inflation in May.

Nevertheless, the Fed continues to believe and tries to convince market participants that the increased inflation rate will not last long, as it is caused by temporary drivers and technical factors such as the low base effect. Last year, in April and May, inflation reached a local minimum, after which it turned into growth. Compared to those months, inflation in April and May of this year can easily show high growth rates.

US trade statistics may also be in focus. The consensus on the data is reduction of the US trade deficit to $70 billion. However, the news that the US trade deficit has reached its peak is unlikely to help the dollar. In addition, the Fed is entering a blackout period - the Central Bank officials are silent for a whole week in front of the Fed meeting, so the dollar can only be supported by a strong inflation report.

On Thursday, the ECB will meet and, in this light, mixed data on sentiment in Germany indicate that it doesn’t make sense for the bank to rush to slow down asset purchases. The ECB will likely prefer to focus on supporting a weak euro, and will also point to the risks of new virus strains and slow vaccinations as key risks which justify low rates and QE.

EURUSD pulls back today after the 1.22 test on Monday amid lack of optimism in economic data. If the uptick in US inflation in May does not meet expectations, the baseline scenario for EURUSD is continued rise in the second half of the week to the June high (1.225):






Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

[TickmillNews]

Taper or not to taper early? US May inflation report should help the Fed to make up its mind

Oil prices rose on Tuesday continuing to develop modest upside momentum on Wednesday. WTI has broken the $70 per barrel mark for the first time since October 2018. The API data indicated a 2.11 million barrels cut in US oil inventories on the reporting week, raising the chances of a positive EIA report on inventories, which is slated for release today. Optimism about demand continues to drive price increases, which is partly justified by the fact that the pandemic is receding. The daily increase in the number of new cases of Covid-19 continues to decline while some health officials, like the head of the Ministry of Health of Norway, make extremely optimistic claims that the pandemic is nearly over.

OPEC acts as a counter-argument for the current oil rally, or rather, the cartel's excess production capacity of 6 million b/d. It is clear that these capacities will be gradually put into operation and if this is done in a weak market or coincides with the deterioration of the demand background (as was the case in March) prices may repeat the correction. Now OPEC production caps are factored in prices, however signals of improvement in demand continue to come. Prices will come under serious pressure closer to the next OPEC meeting.

Another important indicator of the market movement towards the reduction of excess oil reserves was the narrowing of the Brent-WTI spread. Now the WTI discount is only $ 2.3 per barrel, this is the lowest since November 2020 and indicates a faster expansion in the United States.

A short-term oil forecast from the EIA published yesterday showed that forecasts for the recovery of shale production in the United States for 2021 and 2022 have not changed much. This also supported prices, as it was the recovery in US production that prevented OPEC from effectively exercising control over the market.

The mix of the fresh upside leg in oil, declining chances an early QE tapering by the Fed and a flight of inflation to the Russian Federation in May sharply boosted appeal of carry trade, since the chances that the Central Bank of Russia will sharply raise the rate (for example, by 50 bp), thus expanding the differential rates, have gone up. The CBR meeting will take place on Friday and USDRUB is likely to continue to decline rapidly on positive expectations:



The major currency pairs remain in narrow ranges today in anticipation of the key US inflation report for May for this week, as well as the meeting of the European Central Bank. China released inflation data that pointed to an unpleasant trend of contraction in production margins (CPI falls, PPI rises), forcing the authorities to announce price controls. The key takeaway from the data is that inflationary pressures in the world continue to build up, so tomorrow we may well see an unexpected very strong rise in US inflation. However, due to the fact that last May inflation was very low (near zero), YoY gains should be attributed to a good extent to the low base effect, so the market's tolerance to higher inflation rate may be high. A surprise for the market is likely to be core CPI values above 3.7% or above 5% of broad CPI. If the data fails to meet expectations, we can expect a resumption of the downtrend in the dollar, since prolonged pause of the Fed in QE tightening, will lead to rotation into high-yielding currencies away from the USD, since other major Central Banks have clearly more hawkish policy stance.


Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

[TickmillNews]

EIA data was a surprise for the market, casting doubts on US demand strength


Oil prices came under pressure on Wednesday, WTI struggled to stay above the $70 mark. The catalyst for the decline was bearish EIA report on commercial oil and refined products inventories in the United States. The report is now having a bigger impact on the market than usual, as it presents one of the major uncertainties on supply side. OPEC pumps oil in accordance with established quotas, and therefore supply from the cartel is more or less predictable.
The EIA report was a bit ambiguous as it contained both positive and negative information for the market. Stocks of crude oil decreased by 5.24 million barrels in the reporting week, confirming the API inventories data (which also indicated a reduction in reserves), nevertheless, refined products - gasoline, distillates and propane reserves jumped 20.71 million barrels which was a kind of a shock for the market:



The growth of finished products may indicate that the demand for them has decreased (i.e., fuel consumption in the United States has decreased) or supply has increased, or there was a combination of these factors.

In search of an answer to the question of what caused the increase in inventories, it is worth paying attention to the capacity utilization of refineries. The report showed that it rose 2.6% to 91.3%, the highest since January last year:



Taking into account the change in the activity of refineries, the change in demand for finished oil products turned out to be negative and amounted to -1.43 mln bpd. However, it should be borne in mind that we are approaching the travel season in the United States, which is a seasonal factor of increase in fuel demand.

On the supply side, the bulk of the negative news for the market comes from Iran. The country has ambitious supply growth targets, from 2.4 million bpd to 3.3 million bpd in the first six months to 4 million bpd. over the next six months, provided that the United States lifts the sanctions.

Iran's supply is expected to rise, however any news indicating progress in the nuclear deal could trigger a correction in the market, which, however, should short-lived as the demand side situation improves.

Later today, OPEC is to publish a monthly bulletin that will report on the cartel's production in May, as well as provide updated forecasts by the end of the year. On Friday, the IEA will release a report, which will also provide its views on the market. Both reports could cause increased price volatility, especially if the outlook changes for the worse, as the market remains fragile after recent gains.



Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

[TickmillNews]

Fed meeting impact will likely to be short-lived and here is why



Greenback holds position on Monday after the short-squeeze last Friday. Gold resumed its plunge while nominal yield on long-dated US debt (Treasuries) remained subdued – in overall this suggests that expectations of inflation overheating somewhat retreated. This could happen for two reasons - either markets feel that US growth rate cools down or they expect some updates on the Fed credit tightening. Considering that the FOMC meeting is around the corner, the reason is most likely the second.

The reaction in USD, gold and Treasuries suggest that asset prices factored in a possible change in the policy at the meeting on June 16. Interest rate and bond-buying pace are expected to remain at current levels; however, the Fed may start to talk about when it intends to scale back massive bond purchases. Even this slight policy tweak should have an impact, given that other central banks have taken the first step towards exiting the anti-crisis policy. Therefore, if there is a comment, a la "we start to discuss the timeframe of QE tapering", it is unlikely that this will cause a long-lasting surprise in the market.

But the Fed is hardly ready for anything more. There is actually no need for that. The comfortable US economic situation (aka “Goldilocks economy”) and looming summer calm in the markets are two key reasons for the Fed to be cautious and extend the wait-and-see stance. In addition, rising demand for long-term Treasuries since the beginning of June suggests that the Fed has managed to convince market participants that high inflation in April-May is temporary. So, there is no market pressure on the Fed to tell something about QE tapering. If the Fed rushes now with hints about reduction of asset purchases, it can sow doubts that inflation is completely under control. This is certainly not in the best interest of the Fed officials.

As a result, the emerging trend of this summer – search for yield amid subdued volatility - is likely to remain intact. Already on Friday, we saw strengthening of 10-year Russian bonds by 11 bp after Bank of Russia hiked key rate by 50 bp. The yields on «second-rate» Eurozone bonds - Italy and Greece - also declined, their spread to 10-year German Bunds dropped below 100 bp., indicating that investors are willing to take risk in exchange of returns. This week, investors to EM will likely pay attention to Brazilian Central Bank, which is supposed to raise interest rate by 75 bp. In general, there are clear signals that demand for risk is on the rise.

As one of the main funding currencies, greenback has inverse relationship with demand for risk, therefore, it’s likely that recent USD strengthening can be attributed purely to the FOMC even risk. The index may reverse in the area of 90.80-91.00 in the second half of the week:







Meetings of the Norwegian Central Bank and the Bank of Switzerland will also be held this week. The Central Bank of Norway gave a signal that it will tighten credit conditions, and the SNB, on the contrary, that it will not rush in this matter. Therefore, EURNOK and EURCHF may tend to move in different directions this week - the first is down and the second is up.

For EURUSD, the situation largely reflects the alignment of the dollar index: a potential downward movement on the FOMC will probably not go beyond 1.2075 from where a rebound can be expected:




Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

[TickmillNews]

Delta variant is getting on the market radar. What does it mean for equity markets?


The newsflow related to the new Covid-19 delta variant is putting a dent on equity markets. What disturbs the most is that even countries with a high proportion of vaccinated people are forced to return some social curbs as this raises the question about vaccines efficacy. Some countries attempt to contain the outbreaks, others are taking preventive measures, however market worries stem from the fact that growing number of key economies are getting involved in this trend. Stock markets in Europe fell today after German newspaper Bild reported that in light of the threat of the new strain, European leaders will discuss measures for travelers returning from other countries. Tourism and travel sector led declines. Investors also reacted negatively to the news that Hong Kong has placed the UK on the list of countries with "extremely high risk", completely banning the entry of travelers from this country. The UK100 index posted the largest loss today among the major European indices, potentially reflecting investor doubts about the effectiveness of the Astra Zeneca vaccine against the new strain.

In the forex market, the dollar is taking a decisive offensive ahead of the June Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday. The US economy is expected to add 700,000 jobs, which will increase the chances of an early start of tightening of the Fed policy. Last week, a number of representatives of the Fed spoke in favor of raising rates, only the head of Powell chose a bearish tone, but the impact of his remarks on the market was short-lived.

Last week, on Friday, data on US income and expenditures were released, which showed disappointing MoM gains. However, the main interest of the market was of course focused on inflation indicators. Annual growth of Core PCE, which is the preferred Fed measure of inflation, amounted to 3.4% in annual terms, monthly growth did not meet expectations. The US debt market apparently cheered bullish inflation release, yields of longer-maturity Treasuries dropped, indicated that investors flocked into bonds following release of the data.

Despite the fact that the Fed considers inflation to be temporary, it is at its highest since 1992:



There are many upside inflation risks, in particular if firms in the US continue to experience hiring problems. Like last time, the dollar may react upward, and Treasury yields will rise if the NFP report shows that monthly wage growth will again significantly exceed the forecast. This will most likely indicate that the labor shortage in the United States persists, which means that companies may be inclined to raise prices, shifting inflation to consumers. It is highly likely that the markets will perceive this as an increased risk of the Fed's sudden move towards tighter credit conditions.


Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

[TickmillNews]

Fears of new Covid-19 strain fuel risk-off USD rally

The Dollar rose to the weekly high amid flight of investors from risk assets in Europe and Asia. A growing number of countries announce restrictions and partial lockdowns (for example, in Australia) as well as impose travel curbs with certain countries. The United States has added Saudi Arabia to its covid list with the note “not desirable to visit” which is not a good sign for risk sentiment outlook. In addition to local sell-off in affected sectors, government responses force markets to take seriously the threat of the spread of the new strain. A direct consequence of this is an overall rise in risk aversion level.
The data on inflation in Germany were in line with the forecasts, however markets needed an upside surprise to keep the euro supported. The absence of inflation risks in the data is a favorable signal for the ECB, which seeks to delay the start of tightening policy. The report fueled sell-off in EURUSD.
From the technical point of view, EURUSD outlook is becoming more bearish. The price consolidated below the lower bound of the trend channel after the breakout, which increases the chances of a further decline:

The situation is similar in GBP, only the decline there is even more powerful, since the Bank of England disappointed with its policy decision last week while covid situation is apparently slightly worse than, for example, in Europe:

Despite the rise in cases, the hospitalization and death rates need to be closely monitored to see if the government can move to restrictions. If the numbers are favorable, the risks of new restrictions in GBPUSD will decrease, which will speak in favor of strengthening of the pair. However, it is too early to talk about it.
Currencies sensitive to oil prices suffered losses on Tuesday awaiting OPEC's decision to increase production by 500 thousand bpd. OPEC meeting is due later this week. The correction in oil may continue should key oil consumers roll out more restrictions, which will undermine the outlook for oil demand growth.


Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

[TickmillNews]

Preliminary data indicates US jobs market remained tight in June


European indices remain on a slippery slope due to expectations of new covid restrictions. Intraday losses range from half to one percent. The June inflation release in the Eurozone did not come with a positive surprise for the Euro, inflation rose in line with expectations, which allows the ECB to take its time to raise interest rates.

US data ahead of Friday's labor market report indicate a likely positive surprise. The Conference Board's Consumer Optimism Index rose more than expected, with significantly more respondents from the previous month pointing to improved job opportunities and higher income.

The main indicator increased from 120 to 127.3 points, which is only slightly below the maximum reached before the pandemic. The average consumer optimism index over 20 years is 94.7 points, from this point of view the June reading is really encouraging. Interestingly, both the current conditions index and the expectations index rose, which sets the stage for extension of the positive trend in the next few months.

Before the NFP report, it is import to look at the details of the report that are related to the labor market. The share of respondents who believe that vacancies are plentiful (54.4%) minus the share of respondents who believe that it is difficult to find a job (10.9%) has reached its highest value since 2000:





The value and monthly dynamics of the indicator suggests that the demand for labor continued to grow at a decent pace in June. Surprisingly, this may negatively affect the payrolls indicator, since at the same time with the growing demand, there is a shortage of labor supply, which slows creation of jobs. Some workers see no reason to discontinue receiving government benefits and payments, some parents were forced to stay at home because some US schools still conduct remote studies. There is also a part the workers who lost their jobs and decided to retire as the stock market boosted their pension savings over the year. In general, there are several factors that are holding back the growth of labor supply, creating unusual tensions in the labor market, where employers must compete for workers.

Monthly growth in wages is likely to be stronger than forecasts, which should increase pressure on the Fed to raise rates and cut QE. Risks to the dollar and long-dated bond yields are skewed upside what could explain strong dollar performance this week and prevailing pressure in USD currency pairs with major opponents.


Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

[TickmillNews]

Dollar rise may continue this week. What are the key resistance levels?



The Dollar index resumed rally on Monday amid signs of renewed distress in equity markets. Demand for Dollars could also start to pick up as investors price in potential bullish surprises in the June US CPI release on Tuesday as well as Powell speech on Tuesday and Wednesday.

In the second half of the last week, greenback rally took a short break as June Fed meeting Minutes failed to provide an evidence of a hawkish shift in the Fed’s stance. Recall that after the FOMC meeting in June, there was a growing perception that the Fed may start to taper QE soon and wants to send markets a signal about that. The release of the Minutes lowered chances of this outcome as emphasis in the report was that the goals to reduce unemployment have not been achieved and therefore it is too early to adjust stimulus settings. At the same time, it was noted that the topic of QE tapering did come up in the debates.

The dollar was selling moderately last Thursday and Friday, with the price bouncing off the upper border of the mid-term trendline:






The 100-day SMA is entering a rally for the first time in a long time, and the 200-day SMA also appears to be making a low. The price is close to the moving averages, from this point of view, it will be easy to develop the upward momentum. Breakdown and consolidation above the 92.75 level may become a signal for medium-term purchases.

A strong US CPI report may act as a catalyst for an upturn, but it’s tough to expect inflation to be much higher than forecast. Starting in June, the influence of the low base effect (purely technical factor of increased inflation readings) has been reducing, in addition, the CPI and PPI of China for June, which contribute to the growth of inflation in the rest of the world, have also disappointed:





In China, the PBOC suddenly lowered the banking reserve ratio. This measure means that the central bank eases monetary policy and is designed to free up liquidity for lending or accumulating more assets on banks’ balance sheets. The PBOC often takes this measure when authorities anticipate a weakening of economic activity or an increase in bad debts. In this case, the amount of funds that banks can direct to long-term assets will be about 1 trillion yuan which is considerable as the total private debt is about 18.5 trillion yuan. The PBOC’s decision to ease monetary policy may also reflect concerns about inflation dynamics in June.

The second potentially negative signal from the PBOC can occur on July 15 when it will decide on the medium-term financing rate. If PBOC decides to cut the rate, coupled with the decrease in RRR, this can be perceived as an attempt to stimulate lending activity, at a time when the economy is seemingly on the solid footing. This could be a risk-off signal for financial markets.

Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

[TickmillNews]

High US inflation doesn’t scare if we look under the hood of the report


June inflation report came as a surprise to investors, however, there seems to be no major shift in Fed expectations after the release. The intraday market reaction after release of the report was quite emotional: USD soared up, long-dated Treasuries fell in price and US stock indexes slipped. By Wednesday, those movements ran out of steam: 10Yr Treasury bond yield retreats, futures for US indices trade in green while USD completely unwound post-report gain:





Should we expect Powell to address persistent inflation in his speech today and hint at the possibility of an even earlier withdrawal of stimulus? I think not, and here's why.

Trying to decipher whether high US inflation is temporary or not, i.e., whether or not the Fed should try to adjust the policy or rhetoric in response to its behavior, it might be useful to break it down into key consumption categories and consider contribution of each separately, since there are temporary and permanent drivers of inflation. Consider contribution of the main components in June in the table below:






I marked in red the positions that made the main contribution to inflation. It can be seen that the monthly inflation rate for used cars was 10.5%, breaking this year's record. At the same time, the percentage contribution of this component to the CPI reading was about one third.

Fuel price inflation also made significant contribution. On a monthly basis, gasoline prices rose 2.5%.

Otherwise, it can be seen that the numbers are very, very modest. For example, the rental rate for primary residence increased by an average of 0.23% on a monthly basis.

The increase in the price of used cars and fuel can be confidently attributed to temporary drivers, since the demand for them is caused by stimulated consumer demand due to fiscal support measures, seasonal factors as well as world oil prices. Therefore, it would be strange to believe that the Fed will change its opinion on inflation after this report. Markets seem to have also digested the information and the consensus on temporal nature of recent high inflation remains dominant, which is evident, in particular, from the absence of investor flight from long-dated bonds and weak USD performance today.



Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

[TickmillNews]

June CPI report didn’t impress Powell leaving USD without support


Powell’s cautious comments yesterday curbed USD gains and should support currencies which offer high interest rates as their appeal also depends on how long US interest rate will stay low. Growth opportunities in EUR and GBP against greenback are rather limited, however EM, NOK and other cyclical and commodity currencies deserve attention of investors.

Powell yesterday attempted to strike a balanced position between what the data say and the Fed's own forecasts. While acknowledging that the rise in inflation in recent months has been unexpected and that the situation needs attention, he also said that the underlying reason of growth is a "perfect storm" caused by several drivers that must soon wear off. In his opinion, the Fed should consider the rapid rise in prices as a temporary, unless, of course, it will be repeated year after year. He also believes that current inflation still falls short of the definition of “moderately above the 2% target”.

Recall that breakdown of June inflation into components showed that the two biggest growth drivers was fuel and used cars – prices of the latter in the past three months have been rising average by 9% MoM! Increased demand for fuel, due to, among other things, the effect of seasonal factors, the rally in the oil market spurred fuel prices and its impact on inflation also rose:



Prices for new cars also grew at a decent pace - 2.0% in June. Home rent, which accounts for a large share of income, increased by 0.5% MoM.

The concentration of inflationary pressures only in certain components suggests that inflation is indeed more temporary than persistent. Therefore, the impact of the CPI report on market expectations regarding the Fed was short-lived.


Powell's comments were able to stop decline in EURUSD fueled by CP report, however growth prospects are dim and instead it is reasonable to expect the price to move in a range, as the ECB has clearly outlined its position on tightening the policy - it should not be expected in the near future. The same can be said for the Bank of England. The Fed is a little closer to the beginning of tightening the policy, but more data is needed to clarify the timing, so the potential for strengthening the USD remains against low-yielding currencies - EUR, GBP, JPY. But again, markets need more data.

Weak data on the Chinese economy and easing PBOC policy stance also suggest that the process of transition to higher interest rates by other major central banks may slow. China's GDP grew in the second quarter by 7.9% (forecast 8.1%). This week, the Bank of China lowered its RRR and refinanced part of its debt under its medium-term lending program, which is regarded as increases in monetary stimulus support for the economy. In the current situation this may be viewed as a signal of slowing economy which will have repercussions for the rest of the world as well.



Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

[TickmillNews]

The risk of more downside in equities remains high as bond market moves spell trouble


Correction in risk assets apparently took a break on Tuesday, however weakness in oil and greenback strength persist. After a brief respite early in the session, greenback went on the offensive against major peers, commodity currencies, nonetheless it failed to develop conclusive advantage against emerging markets currencies complex. This is important positive signal suggesting that broad-based flight from risk hasn’t started yet. GBP and NZD led declines against USD, which at the time writing were down 0.60% and 0.55%.

The rally of long-dated Treasury bonds is probably the biggest warning signal that calls for caution. On Tuesday we saw another leg of growth despite major gains on Monday and last week, which could indicate some major shift in sentiment. 10-year bond yield plummeted to 1.14% on Tuesday to the lowest level since February 2021. When demand for long-term bonds rises, investors either expect inflation to ease or start to price out policy tightening from a central bank (or have a mix of these expectations). One way or another, both expectations are likely driven by worsening economic growth prospects.

One of the leading indicators of anxiety/optimism is the spread between yields on 10-year and 2-year US Treasury bonds. When it rises, markets are more likely to expect expansion and vice versa. Since May 2021, this indicator paints a worrying picture:



Markets are being swept by a new wave of concerns over the new Covid-19 delta strain. Despite progress in vaccination, the incidence is growing rapidly in parts of Asia and Europe. The threat of new restrictions boosts risk aversion, given the recent powerful rally which sent parts of the market to very elevated levels, risks are shifted towards continuation of risk-off.

Emerging "inconsistencies" in the story of global recovery have been reflected in the odds of early tightening of the Fed's policy. Expectations are shifting in favor of the fact that at the upcoming event in Jackson Hole, as well as at the September meeting of the FOMC, there will be no signals about early start of QE tapering (decline in the rate of Treasury and MBS purchases). In line with Fed Chief Powell's position that employment gaps justify continued monetary stimulus, the move to rate hikes could be delayed until 2022. Until the Fed sheds lighter on this matter, uncertainty related to the next Fed move will be a factor of pressure on risk assets.


The markets are now experiencing their fourth correction this year. The average size of retracement is 4-5%, the current correction is about 3.5% from the highs, that is, nothing critical yet.


Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

[TickmillNews]

This EURUSD technical pattern is a worrying omen for Euro bulls

US equities managed to rebound on Tuesday which discouraged further selling, European markets and US index futures picked up the tone of recovery on Wednesday. As I wrote earlier, EM currencies were remarkably resilient to the mix of strong USD and weak oil prices on Tuesday, some of them even managed to rise against the dollar, which could indicate that risk aversion wasn’t broad-based.

Today, investors apparently discount worrying headlines regarding pandemic and turn their focus on corporate reports. European indices clawed back 1% on average after yesterday's fall, futures for major US indices rose from 0.1% to 1%. Interestingly, the leaders of yesterday's sell-off – cyclical shares and industrial stocks - rebounded stronger than others - the gains of the DOW and Russell 2000 are the highest among the key US stock indices.

Long-term Treasury yields also rebounded after dropping to a five-month low on Monday which provided welcomed respite as the recent relentless drop in yields was one of the main reasons to worry. Demand for long-term bonds rises when inflation expectations subside or the central bank is expected to keep rates low longer. Both reasons are clearly linked to expectations of a slowdown in economic growth.

Major FX pairs sway in narrow trading ranges, greenback index holds near the opening, cementing support at 93 points. The minutes of the BoJ meeting indicated the Central Bank is concerned about the possibility of inflation recovering despite solid PPI growth and ongoing pickup in activity as behavior of companies operating many years in deflationary environment prevents them from freely transferring rising costs to consumers. The market interpreted this as a signal of yet another delay in paring down stimulus, in particular, slowing down the pace of asset purchases and therefore sold the yen today. The Yen was the only major currency that declined against USD, besides, the rebound from 100-day moving average helped yen sellers to increase pressure:




EURUSD holds near 1.18 level ahead of tomorrow's ECB meeting, however selling pressure is apparently subsiding. The meeting promises to be interesting in terms of the impact on the foreign exchange market and the euro, as there is a fairly high level of uncertainty about certain aspects of ECB policy. Christine Lagarde said earlier that the ECB should soon release results of its strategic policy review, it is not known how this will affect the long-term path and the final level of interest rates.

From a technical point of view, the pair is forming an inclined pennant within the downtrend, which indicates that the pair stays in control of sellers which implies higher chances of a downward breakthrough with a short target of 1.17 - the lowest level since April:



Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

[TickmillNews]

Cautious Fed tone fuels risk taking. What’s next for EURUSD, GBPUSD?



The Fed took another timid step towards tightening monetary policy at yesterday's meeting. The Central Bank also acknowledged that increased inflation may linger longer than originally anticipated. However, judging by the reaction of the dollar and bonds, the markets expected more aggressive rhetoric.

The Fed noted yesterday that the economy is heading in a direction that implies a move towards tighter credit conditions, but Powell said it will take a little more time to be convinced of the success of employment growth. Clearly, the debate over when to start cutting the $120bn QE is heating up, but it is unlikely that the Fed will formally announce it before December. Also, yesterday's meeting revealed a few details about how the QE cut will take place. By all appearances, the sale of MBS from the balance sheet will be carried out last, however, the monthly rate of purchase of Treasuries will decrease faster than MBS. However, market interest rates have been wary of the Fed's seemingly hawkish communication:





In addition, comments on inflation and the third wave of covid were more optimistic than anticipated. Powell reiterated its view that current high inflation is temporary however he also noted that there are risks of its acceleration. The increase in the number of new cases of Covid-19, according to Powell, calls for caution, but there is still no consensus on the economic damage from the third wave. The balance of optimism and caution in the Fed's communication leaves room for the regulator to shift to expectations that the federal funds rate hike will begin in 2022. Market expectations price in the first rate hike no earlier than 2023.

The dollar continued to decline after the Fed meeting in line with the idea discussed yesterday. Markets were obviously expecting a more hawkish stance from the Fed in view of the latest developments in US inflation, but instead they saw an extension of the wait-and-see attitude. The dollar index fell to a monthly low of 92 points, EURUSD rose to a two-week high, and GBPUSD was at a one-month high, due to increasing divergence of the policies of the Bank of England and the Fed. Recall that the Bank of England continues to lean towards the need to start raising rates, since the risks of economic damage from the third wave of covid, even after the complete removal of social restrictions, are decreasing. This is indicated by the growing gap in the rate of daily growth of new cases of Covid-19 after the lifting of restrictions and the rate of hospitalisation:





German inflation and US GDP data for the second quarter are due later today. Moderate pressure on the US dollar is expected to develop if the data exceeds expectations, as it will show that the Fed's dovish stance continues to be coupled with strong economic expansion in key developed economies, resulting in increased demand for risk.



Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

[TickmillNews]

US yields are about to bottom out




The dollar starts off the week on a weaker footing, however there is a great chance that bearish pressure will ease as we get closer to Friday. At the meeting last week the Fed left the door open for rumours about a hawkish policy shift in August and the key missing piece that may boost the odds of such an outcome is an upside surprise in the NFP report this Friday.

The number of new jobs created in the economy (aka Payrolls) has taken center stage in the post-pandemic period in terms of impact on the Fed decisions. It is expected to post decent 900K gain. Stronger-than-expected Payrolls reading will likely fuel speculations that the Fed will hint about QE tapering during Jackson Hole Conference in August. In this case, the market will start to price in decreasing demand in the Treasury market (as a result of slowing Fed purchases) and given the passage of Biden infrastructure plan, which will be financed with new debt, investors may start to quit Treasuries en masse.

Recall that long-term Treasuries saw a strong rise in demand over the past two months (yield-to-maturity slid from 1.75% to 1.20%), however, neither weakening of global economic expansion, nor increased covid-10 risks, which were cited as primary catalysts of the move, didn’t started to materialise. According to JP Morgan, investors continue to fit bearish narratives into the Treasury bond rally similarly to the situation when they explained the Treasury sell-off caused by the actual rebalancing of Japanese investors before the end of the fiscal year (when the 10-year Treasury yields rose from 1.0% to 1.75% in 1Q) by sharply increased inflation expectations and growing risks of economy overheating. The investment bank points to the interesting fact that the latest slump in bond yields was not accompanied by a corresponding increase in open interest in Treasury futures, that is, investors did not make new bets on the deterioration of economic situation, but only adjusted the previous ones.

The sell-off in long-dated Treasuries earlier this year was accompanied by rebound in the dollar index from 89.5 to 93 points. The new wave of Treasury bond sales will most likely also provide strong support to the dollar.

Preparations for this week's NFP report kicks off with today's ISM and Markit Manufacturing indices of activity. It is especially interesting to look at the dynamics of the sub-indices of employment and prices - the first will tell you what to expect from the NFP in the production sector, the second - whether the effect of delays and supply bottlenecks, as well as excessive strong demand, which slow down the economy, are disappearing. The key indicators of the report are expected to extend rise, i. e. the rate of expansion of activity in the sector remained positive in July. A weak report, in my opinion, will have a material impact on the market and will likely fuel more USD downside.





The ADP report and non-manufacturing PMI from ISM are due Wednesday. This time ADP lays down a more conservative estimate of job growth - only 700K (versus 900K NFP). Also pay attention to the hiring component of the ISM index - last month it was in the depressed zone and it is essential to see a rebound to expect strong NFP figure. The greenback are risk assets are expected to post pronounced reaction on release of the reports.






Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

[TickmillNews]

What does ISM Manufacturing data tell us about July NFP?



The latest CFTC data showed that investors continued to build up USD longs ahead of the Fed meeting in August. Given the downside in USD last week, this dynamic was quite unexpected. It can be assumed though that by selling dollars after the Fed, market participants were either taking profits or pursuing short-term speculative goals. The data also showed that more long positions of speculators were closed in CAD and NZD futures, i.e., in currencies that have a relatively high correlation with the recession-recovery cycle of the world economy. This fact, of course, does not inspire optimism.

Aggregated data on the currencies of the G10 countries showed that net long position on the dollar increased in the week ending July 27 from 1.5% to 3.0% of open interest. The dollar increased its advantage against all G10 currencies with the exception of the CHF.

The changes in the CFTC positioning data indicate an increase in bullish sentiment for the dollar, despite the negative reaction of the US currency to the July Fed meeting. This may indicate that underlying drivers of the weakness could be short-lived as Fed tightening is in cards despite relatively dovish message last week, which should offer broad support to USD.

The July ISM Manufacturing Activity Report showed improvements in two key components - prices and employment. The purchasing managers said that hiring of workers increased compared to the previous month while the situation with high prices for raw materials also changed for the better. The hiring sub-index rose from 49.9 to 52.9 points:




At the same time, the prices sub-index fell from an extremely high reading of 92.1 to 85.7 points:




Despite the fact that the broad indicator fell short of forecasts, the details of the report pointed to the dynamics favorable for a strong NFP report on Friday, and hence the stronger dollar. Recall that the major constraint in the expansion of US jobs was the labor shortage. It is clear from the ISM report that the manufacturing sector has begun to see positive shifts for job growth.

The leading ISM new orders declined for the first time in several months (from 66 to 64.9), which may be an early sign that activity in the sector will soon plateau.






Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

[TickmillNews]

What to expect on ADP report today? Medium-term analysis of NZUSD

The NZD rose nearly half a percent against greenback after data released Wednesday showed that New Zealand's unemployment rate returned to the record low level that was before the virus outbreak. The share of unemployed fell from 4.6% to 4.0% in July, well ahead of the modestly positive forecast of 4.4%. Wage growth rate advanced to the highest level in 13 years, which indicates a strong increase in pro-inflationary risks and will likely prompt a hawkish intervention of the Central Bank. The RBNZ is expected to raise the rate at the upcoming meeting, however, the upside potential of the NZD is far from being exhausted, given that there is a risk of a large rate hike by 50 bp at once, as well as the risk that the Central Bank will not rule out the possibility of more rate hikes, which could form sustainable bullish sentiment on the NZD.
From the point of view of technical analysis, the bullish scenario for the NZD can be supported by the following observations. On the weekly NZDUSD chart, we can see a wedge pattern, the formation of which began at the end of last year and continues to this day. The wedge has a negative slope relative to the main bullish trend, therefore it can be considered as a trend continuation formation. On a larger scale, the idea of a trend continuation looks even more plausible because the multi-year peaks are still far away:



In the past few weeks, NZDUSD has been in indecision, which can be concluded from the shape of weekly candlesticks that had long tails and small bottoms - intra-week fluctuations were characterized by both up and down movements with a slight advantage for sellers:


The bounce from the lower bound of the pattern two weeks ago and expectations regarding RBNZ decision which warrant sustainable upside sentiment suggest that bulls may venture a test of the upper bound of the pattern in the area of 0.7150-0.7170 in the coming weeks.
On Wednesday, the dollar is trying to maintain the edge ahead of release of the first batch of labor market data for July - ADP report and ISM report on activity in the services sector. The situation in the manufacturing sector, as shown by a series of data earlier this week (ISM, factory orders, equipment spending) suggests contribution of the sector to the growth of payrolls in July likely beat forecast. However, the share of employed in mfg. sector in the total employment is relatively small, so the ISM report in non-manufacturing sector is much more important in preparing for the NFP. Employment in services sector is now highly subject to fluctuations induced by swings in consumer mobility and social restrictions. Let’s be careful here, since it was in July that the incidence of Covid-19 began to rise in the United States:



Correlation of covid daily cases growth with severity social restrictions is gradually weakening, but this process is slow, so rising incidence in the US in July could still have a drag on creation of jobs due to the pressure on services sector. A negative surprise in ADP and ISM is likely to trigger a wave of dollar sales as it would become more difficult to expect a strong NFP, which is the key report for predicting the Fed's policy move in August.

Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

[TickmillNews]

EURUSD may break 1.17 if the US July CPI indicates persistence in price growth

The dollar started the week on a positive note and on Tuesday continues to consolidate around the resistance at 93 points on DXY. Technically, there is a second retest in three weeks of the upper bound of the medium-term wedge pattern, which began to form about a year ago:



Most likely, this signals that buyers are gradually ramping up pressure ahead of the release of the US CPI in July, the upcoming conference in Jackson Hole, as well as against the background of an increase in the number of defensive deals due to the onset of the delta strain in certain regions. Also yesterday, the Fed representatives Rafael Bostic and Eric Rosengren made positive comments for the dollar. Their rhetoric came at a time when the market is quite certain that the Fed will begin to tighten policy this year, but they added a sense of urgency as they said they would prefer a fast approach. This means that the Fed may begin to wind down QE as early as September, if the employment recovery maintains the pace at about the same rate as in July (~1 million new jobs).

The speculation that the Fed may begin to wind down QE in September will definitely provide strong support to the dollar, since the scenario is far from the main one and yet to be factored in asset prices, including USD rate. Today's comments by Fed spokesman Loretta Mester on inflation risks may further clarify the possibility that the Fed will make a sharp hawkish shift in policy in September.

The only economic calendar report that deserves attention today is the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. Therefore, the risk appetite in the market may now be driven by price movements in the commodity markets, which this week turned out to be significantly worried about demand outlooks. Oil began the week with a decline of more than 3% amid negative news from China related to the spread of the coronavirus. Industrial metal prices also reacted negatively to the heightened risks of new restrictions in China that could affect production. Nevertheless, we observe recovery in commodity prices on Tuesday as newsflow gradually improves.

In addition, the release of the ZEW report on Germany is due today. It is unlikely that the positive surprise will be able to stop the downtrend in EURUSD, as investors are focused on the factor of the Fed's policy. The potential test of 1.17 level in EURUSD will coincide with a breakout of medium-term pattern in DXY, which looks logical, but development of this move will depend on whether the DXY price can gain a foothold above the boundary line:



Disclaimer:* The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning:* CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

[TickmillNews]

July US inflation failed to surprise markets as temporary drivers fade

Inflation in the US rose by 0.5% in July in monthly terms, which was in line with expectations, however, core inflation rose by 0.3%, which was less than the forecast of 0.4%. Annual inflation remained unchanged compared to June and amounted to 5.4%.
The data for the first time in several months indicated a sharp slowdown in the growth of used car prices. This CPI component showed an average growth of 10% MoM for three months in a row, making a significant contribution to the rise in overall inflation. In June, used cars rose in price by only 0.2%. In addition, prices for air tickets interrupted growth, sliding by 0.1% MoM. These two components were the main reason why core inflation fell short of forecasts:



It can also be noted that the coverage of inflation has become broader - the number of categories of goods where the monthly price increase was zero or positive has increased. For example, prices in recreation category rose by 0.6% MoM, in housing services by 0.4% MoM. Price growth of medical services amounted to 0.3% MoM.

Judging by the behavior of the key CPI drivers (cars, air tickets, fuel), the annual inflation has most likely passed its peak and is now going to decline. Nevertheless, return to the comfortable for the Fed inflation range with an average of 2% may be delayed. The main reason is the stimulus-driven boom in the US economy. Demand continues to recover faster than supply and with the scars the pandemic has left on the economy, adjustment will take longer than the policymakers expect. This also applies to the labor market, where the demand for labor also exceeds supply, which is why inflationary pressure on wages persists. The latest US NFIB report indicated that a record high proportion of small businesses have unfilled vacancies. JOLTS data for June showed that the number of posted vacancies was 3.4 million more than the number of people hired. On the side of production, ISM data still point to record low levels of inventories, and delays in the supply of goods and raw materials are also near extreme levels.

All this leads to the fact that price pressures in the economy continue to be high. Thanks to strong stimulus-fueled demand, companies feel that their price power is increasing. According to the same NFIB report, the number of companies that have raised or are about to raise final prices are at their peak for 40 years. Therefore, the prospects for inflation persistence in the United States remain very high, even though its peak may have already passed.



Disclaimer:* The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning:* CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

[TickmillNews]

Weak US consumer sentiment data hints at weak July Retail Sales print


Risk appetite in equity markets eased on Monday after release of disappointing data on Chinese economy. Industrial production rose 6.4%, missing expectations of 7.8%. Fixed capital investments also grew at a slower pace than expected (10.3% versus 11.3% expected). Manufacturing in China is also one of the key barometers of global recovery, so weaker-than-expected growth could be an early signal that either the global recovery is peaking or expansion of manufacturing continues to be constrained by rising commodity prices, supply disruptions and bottlenecks. By the way, not only China has faced this problem during current phase of the business cycle.

The rise in retail sales in China was also a big negative surprise. In annual terms, it amounted to only 8.5%, which was significantly lower than the forecast of 11.5%. Oil prices weakened after release of the report, as did the AUD and NZD, which are also guided by consumption picture in China. However, the NZD is now being underpinned by expectations that the RBNZ's rate hike this week will also leave room for further policy tightening if price increases or the labor market continue to surprise.

Long positions in the dollar and pound rose, the latest CFTC data showed. Data for the week ending August 10 showed that speculators continued to build up their dollar longs. The aggregate long position on the dollar against the currencies of the G10 countries rose 3% from open interest.

Nevertheless, there was a pretty strong dollar sell-off on Friday. The index slipped from 93 to 92.5 points on Friday, amid very weak data from U. Michigan. According to the organization's report, consumer confidence in August fell from 81.2 to 70.2 points:



Weak data suggests that consumer momentum may have started to fade in July, which is likely to affect retail sales due tomorrow. The benchmark is expected to slow down by 0.2% on a monthly basis, a stronger negative surprise could lead to additional dollar sales, as in this case, the chances of the Fed's hawkish rhetoric should be noticeably reduced. This week the risks for the US dollar are shifted towards further easing:




Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

[TickmillNews]

Downbeat Retail Sales surprise could amplify negative impact of the Fed QT news, extending equity correction


Global equities are down for the second day in a row while USD stands firm ahead of release of the US retail sales report. Consumer optimism in the US dropped quite sharply in August, showed data from U. of Michigan on Friday laying the groundwork for downbeat surprises in US consumption while the latest Bank of America’s estimate of retail sales in July calls for a closer look at the possibility of further correction of risk assets. With market consensus of -0.2% MoM, the US bank did not skimp on pessimism, estimating that the monthly decline in retail sales could be as much as 2.3%:





At the same time, core retail sales, which more accurately reflect consumer optimism, may decline even more - by 2.7%. This is in line with the deterioration in consumer data from U. of Michigan.

One of the main reasons for a weak headline print may be decline in car sales. Inflation data for July showed that price growth for used cars fell from 10% to 0.2% MoM, so the decline in sales in this sector is already largely priced in. However, markets will likely react on surprising reading in core sales, i.e., retail sales which doesn’t include cars and fuel.

The risk of emerging slack of the key driver of economic pickup in the US - consumer boom, overlays expectations that the Fed this week and next will start to provide details on curtailment of monetary stimulus, in particular monthly bond purchases. Obviously, this will not be the right moment for this news as investors may start to price in a policy error from the Fed. In this case, we may observe an increased demand for long-term Treasuries, i.e., falling yields. So far, moderate sales of risk assets may be just an expression of these concerns.

Tomorrow, the minutes of the July Fed meeting are due, which will likely reveal some technical details on how the Fed can conduct QT and how long this process can take. Obviously, if these details appear in the data, it will be a hawkish signal for the markets, while weak economic statistics today are likely amplifying the negative market reaction to the Fed policy report tomorrow. The risk for equities especially US stocks are skewed towards further losses in the coming days as the data may reveal that the Fed picked wrong time for announcements regarding withdrawing monetary stimulus.



Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

[TickmillNews]

Dollars surges on equity correction, markets fear Fed tightening



July Fed Minutes released on Wednesday hit risk appetite despite lack of clear hawkish shift in the tone of wordings. Markets saw renewed selling pressure albeit with more vigor thanks to synergy of selling catalysts – lackluster July US retail sales, growing hawkish bias of the Fed, growing dollar’s appeal as ultimate safe heaven, as well as seasonal weakness. Amid a surge of risk-off, greenback index soared to a 10-month high (93.50 level in DXY).

Small-cap and value stocks led declines with Russell 2000 futures falling 1.7% at the time of writing and European equity indices, populated mostly by value stocks, erasing 2% on average. SPX futures tanked 1% today, extending 1% loss of S&P 500 during NY session on Wednesday. There is a clear market bias to short stocks which upside is positively correlated with expectations of economic recovery suggesting a repricing of economic growth prospects is underway. This bodes ill for potential depth of the current decline which may be the first serious market pullback after series of short-term dips earlier in the year whose depth was less than 5%.

Minutes of the July FOMC meeting showed that officials did discuss QE, but their opinions were divided over when to start phasing out stimulus. Some officials proposed to start this fall, others - at the beginning of next year. Nevertheless, the very fact that QE end is in sight and higher prospective interest rates on bonds will induce major equity-bond rotation dampened the mood in equities. After a brief upside bounce on the release of the Minutes, S&P 500 turned into decline:





But what’s really disturbing is that the Fed’s tapering story unfolds around the same time as US data started to show signs of fading growth momentum. Weak retail sales in July and consumer sentiment in August put a major dent on recovery hopes. There may be growing concern among investors that August data will extend the streak of downbeat US data surprises, which greatly adds to risk-off and makes current valuations fragile.

Today there will be data on applications for unemployment benefits, which can somewhat ease bearish pressure if it shows that positive labor market trend remains intact. In addition, markets will watch on the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook to see if US businesses are starting to feel any weakness of the economy.

Considering DXY positioning, it can be seen that price made decisive breach of the upper line of the pattern:





The previous idea of a false breakout appears to be defied by the latest price action as DXY has been given powerful boost by flagging support in equity which induced safe-haven flows. The prospects of further decline also imply additional upside potential of the US currency with EURUSD’s next closest target at 1.16 level.



Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

[TickmillNews]

The rebound of EURUSD may be short-lived as Fed Powell speech is ahead



Oil prices escape the grip of sellers and stage rebound on Monday after spending almost entire last week in correction. Equity markets rebounded as well which drove sell-off in USD as risk-off flows ebbed. Long-dated bond demand eased in top economies as risk appetite appears to be on the mend.

Last Friday, Fed representative Robert Kaplan said he may reconsider his call to wind down QE early, as the delta variant has shifted the trajectory of the economic recovery to a less favorable one.

There is slight but growing risk that the Fed may disappoint market hawks this week signaling about prolonged QE. The RBNZ was unable to raise rates last week, citing a slowdown in the economy due to the new lockdown. Weak economic data for July, in particular inflation and retail sales, thwarted the Bank of England's plans to tighten policy. Other central banks have also softened their rhetoric somewhat in recent times.

Strong Korean data and Thailand's covid data have drawn investors into Asian equities. In addition, Chinese stocks have also gone up, which has not happened often lately. The Central Bank of China continues to set the USDCNY reference rate below 6.50, which indirectly supports other EM currencies.

The news that Yellen supported Powell's candidacy as head of the Fed for the next term could also have a positive impact on the markets. Given how Powell is smoothing out the position of fellow hawks in the shop, the extension of his term will definitely positively affect the chances of a longer withdrawal of the Fed from soft credit conditions.

Eurozone business activity has remained strong this month, although it has declined from its 20-year high in July. The data released on Monday came slightly worse than expected, which, however, did not prevent the euro from strengthening against the dollar. Markit noted that the economy maintained impressive momentum in the third quarter, with supply chain delays continuing to curb expansion. It also suggests that firms have not yet finished raising prices in response to rising costs, which bodes well for short-term inflation outlook.

The euro was encouraged by the dynamics of the employment sub-index, which remains at a record level for the second month in a row (56.1 points in August).

The main source of volatility this week should be Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference in Wyoming, USA. It is unlikely that equities will be able to develop today's rebound closer to the meeting, as the uncertainty about Powell's remarks is very high. The positions of other Central Banks also add contradictions. Dollar buyers are likely to be found with the dollar index (DXY) at 93.20 while EURUSD should face stiff resistance near 1.1750 this week as the pair develops rebound from a downtrend line as breach of April support level failed to sustain:





Disclaimer:* The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.

High Risk Warning:* CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.