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  #521  
Old 20-09-2023, 02:45
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NEXT TO THE STAGE. BANK OF JAPAN MEETING

Dear clients,

In Asian trading on Monday, the US dollar barely moved, even sterling rose, but the yen fell as a Japanese holiday and a slew of upcoming central bank meetings sucked the air out of the markets.

The Bank of Japan meeting on Friday will be the highlight of the week in Asia, after Bank Governor Kazuo Ueda sparked speculation of an imminent departure from ultra-soft policy.

This has highlighted the Japanese central bank in a week packed with central bank meetings, with a hawkish pause expected from the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday and the Bank of England possibly raising rates for the last time on Thursday.

The yen was unchanged against the US dollar at between 147.63 and 147.88 per dollar, while markets in Japan were closed due to a public holiday. The yen fell 1.3% in the days following Ueda's announcement that he would soon move away from negative rates, with losses for 2023 exceeding 11%.

Economists at Commonwealth Bank of Australia expect yen exchange rate volatility ahead of the policy meeting and believe investors may have misinterpreted Ueda's comments. Recent weakness in Japanese wages and possible prices could also soften and push the BoJ away from its inflation target, so the case for the BoJ to tighten policy is not yet strong.

CRYPTO BLUES: STABLECOIN'S HEAVY SHARE OF LOSSES

Dear clients,

Bitcoin is not the only asset experiencing a late summer downturn.

Stablecoins, cryptocurrencies typically pegged to real assets such as the US dollar, have fallen to their lowest market capitalisation in two years as low trading volumes and a buzzing dollar put pressure on the market for these tokens.

In fact, they are suffering the most.

While the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem has bounced back from 2022 lows, the market capitalisation of the stablecoin sector is set to decline for the 18th consecutive month, according to research firm CCData. It's down by almost a tenth this year and stood at $124.4bn as of 14 September.

Not everyone is keeping pace, though: The largest dollar-stablecoin, Tether, is bucking the downward trend. It hit a record high of $83.8bn in July, according to CoinGecko, after being worth less than $80bn in the first three months of this year, its volume has since fallen to around $82.9bn.

While stablecoins make up only a modest portion of the cryptocurrency market, they play a key role for traders, allowing them to hedge against price spikes in other tokens, such as bitcoin, or to store idle cash without having to transfer it back into fiat currency. Some enthusiasts also envisage using stablecoins as a means of payment.

However, the market for these tokens has been in the doldrums since last year's collapse of the algorithmic token TerraUSD, which was once the fourth-largest stablecoin token and was the first domino in a series of dramatic industry failures.

The market has also suffered losses for Binance's dollar-linked token BUSD, which is down about 89% from its all-time high reached in November. In February, the New York Department of Financial Services ordered issuer Paxos to cease issuing the token, which was once the third-largest stablecoin.

The market value of USD Coin (USDC), the second-largest stablecoin, has fallen more than 53% from its record high reached last June and now stands at more than $26bn.
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  #522  
Old 22-09-2023, 04:20
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TRADING SIGNALS: US FED MEETING

Dear clients,

On September 20, the US Federal Reserve System, the body that performs the functions of the Central Bank of America, will hold a meeting. The decision on the interest rate will determine further market movement, which is what makes traders involved.

Our expert tells us how the situation with the rates will develop now:

The US Fed may keep the rate at the previous level of 5.5% today, but will signal to traders about the possibility of raising rates at the next meeting on November 1, as fuel prices have risen strongly in the United States, which is fraught with rising inflation. The future rate hike is positive for the dollar, thus consider buying USDCAD, USDZAR and selling AUDUSD, XAGUSD on Wednesday.

Make your arrangements and get up to 10% bonus on your account for each deposit with cryptocurrency!

'WHAT A TWIST' FOR BANK OF ENGLAND

Dear clients,

The Bank of England will announce on Thursday whether it is halting its series of interest rate hikes, a day after signs that a turnaround is in sight in the UK's handling of high inflation.

As soon as official data showed an unexpected drop in the rate of price growth, investors began betting on Wednesday that the Bank of England would keep the Bank Rate at 5.25%. By Thursday, the figure had already reached 5.5%

Goldman Sachs and other banks abandoned their earlier expectations of another rate hike, and investors put the Bank of England's pause at around 50%, up from 20% on Tuesday.

Other analysts said they still see a final Bank of England rate hike as the most likely outcome following the recent surge in global oil prices, but emphasised that it could go either way.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and his colleagues on the Monetary Policy Committee have been heavily criticised after consumer price inflation topped 11% last October.

In recent weeks, Bailey and other officials have emphasised that while they may be close to reaching the peak of their series of rate rises, they may have to keep borrowing costs high for some time, dashing hopes of a rapid rate cut.

Whether or not the Bank of England raises rates again, it is likely to face the challenge of convincing investors that it will stand by its judgement and not rush to cut rates even as the already fragile UK economy shows signs of weakening.

The Bank of England is concerned that wages are still defying a slowdown in the wider economy and are rising at a record pace, threatening to derail its attempts to bring inflation down.

As well as the rate decision, the central bank is expected to unveil details of the next phase of a programme to reduce the stockpile of government bonds it has built up over a decade and a half to help the economy during the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic.
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  #523  
Old 25-09-2023, 04:20
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CHIP AND FAIL. A TROUBLED MONTH FOR THE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY

Dear clients,

Shares of Nvidia and other U.S. semiconductor companies are starting to slowly lose lustre after a stunning rally into 2023 as investors weigh high valuations, rising Treasury yields and signs of industry worries.

At the start of the year, shares of chip companies soared, with the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor (.SOX) index surging more than 50% through July. No stock has embodied the chip industry's success more than Nvidia, whose shares tripled in 2023, when the company's market value topped $1 trillion, driven by excitement around the central role of the company's products in artificial intelligence applications.

However, the group's performance has stalled. SOX is down more than 7% this month, compared with a 2.3% fall in the broad S&P 500 index, while Nvidia shares the driver of this year's broad market rally are down more than 14% in September.

Investors said the group is also being impacted by industry concerns, including ongoing tensions between the U.S. and China over semiconductors. Washington is considering imposing restrictions on the sale of artificial intelligence chips, after export controls last year cut China off from some semiconductor chips made anywhere in the world on US equipment.

Another blow came from Taiwan's TSMC, which asked its major suppliers to delay shipments of high-tech chip-making equipment as the world's top contract chipmaker grows increasingly nervous about customer demand. Shares of several TSMC suppliers fell after the announcement.

Meanwhile, the excitement following last week's initial public offering of Arm Holdings has died down, and shares of the chip developer have fallen for the fifth consecutive day.

Still, the sentiment among investors is still quite positive. Many chip stocks have risen significantly over the year, and this month may prove to be only a temporary setback.

FREE POWERFUL TRADING ANALYTICS IN METATRADER 5

Dear clients,

Last week the MetaTrader 5 platform was updated to the Build 3950 version.

Let's get straight to the main thing. The trading history report has been redesigned and completely updated - now it is more clear. The developers have revised the approach to information presentation and converted dry statistical reports into interactive charts and diagrams. The work is still in progress, but you can already evaluate the changes. To view trade statistics, click "Reports" in the "View" menu.

Available reports:

Summary - summary information about your activity over time: account details, profit and loss totals, deposit and withdrawal amounts, balance, growth and dividend graphs, and other data.
Profit/Lost - historical information about profitable and losing trades. It is divided by type of trading (manual, copy-trading and algo-trading), can be analysed in terms of trades, percentages or money by days, months and years.
Long/Short - report on Buy- and Sell-orders in specified time intervals.
Symbols - detailed analysis of deals by financial instruments. Ratio of the number of deals, comparison of different types of trading and historical data for individual symbols or whole groups.


This innovation will help traders of any level to trade more efficiently the statistics section has been redesigned, now it is a serious tool for analysing your own trading history. Beginners and professionals will find in the updated section everything they need to optimise their portfolio. You will no longer need third-party services to monitor trading results: the necessary information is built into the platform and is available at a single click.

Right now the update is available only for the desktop version of the platform with an operating system not lower than Windows 10. In the nearest updates this feature will be added to the web and mobile versions of MetaTrader 5.

No extra effort or cost the solution is built into the trading platform and comes free of charge!

Try out the new stuff together with our unique offer 50% discount on spread and swap when trading bitcoin!
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  #524  
Old 03-10-2023, 03:52
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FRESHFOREX BIRTHDAY CHALLENGE SWEET 19!

Dear clients,

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"THE END OF AN ERA."

Dear clients,

The US bond market is marking the occasion: the era of low interest rates and inflation that began with the 2008 financial crisis is over. What will follow is still unclear.

That market view has become clearer in recent days amid a surge in 10-year Treasury yields to a 16-year high.

According to investors and the New York Fed's regularly updated yield-based model, the betting behind the move is that the disinflationary processes that the Federal Reserve has fought with easy-money policies since the financial crisis have tapered off.

Instead, investors believe investors have concluded that the U.S. economy is probably now in what one regional Fed chairman described as a "high-pressure equilibrium" characterised by inflation above the Fed's 2% target, low unemployment and positive growth.

This important shift in the outlook for rates has profound implications for policymakers, businesses, and the public. The shift to higher and more protracted rates could be painful and manifest itself in failed business models, unaffordable homes and cars. It could also force the Fed to keep raising rates until another failure occurs, as the three regional US banks did in March.

The Fed's market model for decomposing the 10-year Treasury yield into its components provides additional insight into investors' thinking.

In recent days, one component of yields a measure of the reward investors demand for lending money for the long term turned positive for the first time since June 2021, according to the ACM model.

The rise in the short-term rate also reflects confidence that structural shifts - from de-globalisation to declining productivity and an aging population - have raised the elusive theoretical interest rate at which growth neither accelerates nor slows and full employment exists at stable prices. It is called the neutral rate, or r-star.

While the market seems confident that the era of zero interest rates is over, it is much less confident about the real prospects for the economy.

The neutral rate, for example, determines whether the Fed Funds rate will slow or stimulate the economy, but no one really knows what the rate is really like until something breaks. Estimates vary widely.

The era of uncertainty has also arrived among monetary policymakers. A San Francisco Fed survey in August, which developed an index to gauge the level of disagreement among policymakers about their economic forecasts, showed that by June it had risen to a level higher than the pre-pandemic average.
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  #525  
Old 06-10-2023, 01:36
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THE OTHER TIP OF THE SCALES. GOLDMAN SACHS ON TECH STOCKS

Dear clients,

According to Goldman Sachs strategists, strong earnings results to be released soon could reverse the decline in technology and growth stocks, which have been hurt by rising Treasury yields and, according to one report, are trading at their lowest levels in six years.

The so-called "Magnificent Seven" Apple, Microsoft, Amazon.com, Alphabet, Nvidia, Tesla and Meta Platforms have fallen 7% over the past couple of months, compared with a 3% decline for the S&P 500 index as a whole, as Treasury yields jumped more than 60 basis points to 16-year highs.

Those declines have caused forward price-to-earnings ratios for companies to fall 20% over the past two months, leaving them trading at the largest discount to the market based on long-term growth since January 2017, Goldman Sachs said in a note on 1 October. At the same time, group sales growth is expected to be 11% in the third quarter, compared with 1% for the S&P 500 index, the company said.

Goldman strategists said the "megacaps" have collectively beaten consensus forecasts for sales growth 81% of the time and exceeded earnings expectations in two-thirds of the seasons since the fourth quarter of 2016.

"The divergence between lowering estimates and improving fundamentals presents new opportunities for investors," they wrote.

The S&P 500 index has fallen nearly 5% over the past 10 trading days, but is up just over 11% since the start of the year.

MARKET JUSTICE

Dear clients,

Growing fears among bond investors about US government spending and the ballooning budget deficit are fuelling a sharp sell-off that has seen Treasury bond prices fall to 17-year lows.

So-called "bond vigilantes" investors who punish profligate governments by selling their bonds and driving up yields were a feature of markets in the 1990s, when concerns about US federal spending drove Treasury bond yields as high as 8%.

The expectation of a sharp increase in the US government budget deficit and the issuance of debt to cover those costs alarmed investors and brought the term back into Wall Street's everyday lexicon.

Fitch Ratings recently downgraded the country's credit rating, predicting that the US budget deficit will rise to 6.3% of gross domestic product this year from 3.7% in 2022 due to higher debt service costs, new spending initiatives and lower federal revenues.

While the Fed's hawkish interest rate outlook has been a major catalyst for yields and price impact, market participants attribute part of the decline in longer maturity bond yields to investor concerns about rising costs.

Yields on 30-year US Treasuries, which change inversely with prices, jumped to 5% on Wednesday for the first time since 2007 in a broad global bond sell-off before stabilising. Budget concerns have been mounting since the summer, when the Treasury announced plans to increase debt issuance.

Strategist Ed Yardeni, who introduced bond vigilantes in the early 1980s, has commented:

"Bond vigilantes are defying (Treasury Secretary Janet) Yellen's policy by raising bond yields to levels that threaten to trigger a debt crisis," he wrote in a Financial Times article Wednesday. "In this scenario, rising yields crowd out the private sector and trigger a credit crunch and recession."

Determined investors in the UK bonds last year helped bring about a policy reversal after a tax cut plan caused borrowing costs to soar, showing that bond vigilantes are still a force to be reckoned with.

However, not all investors believe that the "vigilantes" will be able to influence the $25 trillion Treasury market.

Experts believe the key driver of the sell-off is rate fears, not the supply of Treasuries. They believe some fund managers are waiting for yields to peak before acting. The recent sell-off has brought yields back to pre-financial crisis norms, which has increased the attractiveness of bonds in general and boosted investor returns.
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  #526  
Old 07-10-2023, 13:21
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TRADING SIGNALS: NFP FOR SEPTEMBER

Dear clients,

On October 6, we are expecting the publication of data on Nonfarm Payroll, a measure of U.S. manufacturing employment. The report significantly affects the movement of the US dollar and related instruments.

What indicators are expected this time, let's find out from our expert:

ISM's leading employment indicators point to the release of positive Non-Farm Employment data, which is favourable for the US dollar growth, as in this case the US Federal Reserve may raise interest rates at its November 1 meeting. On Friday consider selling GBPUSD, AUDUSD, XAUUSD, #NQ100.

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THE INTERLUDE

Dear clients,

The lull in bond sales lasted until Friday, but is unlikely to persist until the end of the day as investors await US employment data, which could bolster the case for keeping interest rates high for some time.

Oil's transition from a sharp rise to a fall also provided a respite, with Brent crude futures at $84.50 a barrel, about $13, or 13.5%, cheaper than last week's 11-month high.

MSCI's index of Asia-Pacific shares rose 0.9%. Tokyo's Nikkei (.N225) index was unchanged and currency markets were flat, although the dollar began a record 12th week of gains due to the bond slump.

The ten-year US Treasury yield held mercifully at 4.72% during the Asian session, but it climbed 55 basis points in the course of the five-week sell-off, weighing on bond markets and risk appetite globally.

However, no one was betting big until the release of US non-farm payrolls data at 12:30 GMT.

Another batch of bond sell-offs is likely to see the dollar continue its week-long winning streak, which is already the longest in history against the euro. The dollar index has risen for 12 consecutive weeks, repeating a streak that lasted from July to October 2014.

The rise has taken the euro at $1.0542 near an 11-month low and sterling near a seven-month trough. The dollar index was unchanged at 106.4 on Friday.

Surprisingly, only the beleaguered yen showed significant struggle as a sudden surge in the Japanese currency in London on Tuesday afternoon sparked speculation of government intervention.

Japanese money market data did not reveal any anomalies that could accompany intervention. However, the movement was notable enough to make traders wary.

The yen exchange rate was last seen remaining stable at 148.5 per dollar. Gold also remained steady at $1,822 an ounce after nine days of losses caused by rising global bond yields.
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  #527  
Old 11-10-2023, 11:43
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SHIFTING INTERESTS: HOW CHANGING RATES AFFECT THE CURRENCY MARKET

Dear clients,

Interest rates are one of the biggest driver of price across the markets, with currency being no exception. This time, we'll continue the talk on fluctuations in interest rates.

Join us on October 11 at 12:00 GMT.

During webinars, FreshForex analyst will answer your questions regarding the market situation and comment on the latest news.

If you missed the previous webinars, you can always find them here.

BUSINESS AS USUAL

Dear clients,

While markets have largely regained their composure following events in the Middle East, some dovish remarks from US Federal Reserve officials helped calm investors' nerves ahead of Tuesday's trading session.

On Monday, senior Fed officials suggested that rising yields on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds could replace official monetary policy moves in terms of market impact, reinforcing expectations that the U.S. central bank may not need to raise rates further.

European stocks came under pressure on Monday amid news of conflict in the Middle East, but eurozone blue-chip futures STOXX 50 were back on the upside in Asia in the morning.

At the same time, 10-year US Treasuries posted their sharpest rise in more than a month at the opening of trading in Tokyo on Tuesday, fuelled by the Fed's "soft" remarks and demand for safe-haven assets.

The market will have more than enough to hear the views of Fed officials, who will take part in various events on Tuesday, and on Wednesday the minutes of the September monetary policy meeting will be released. All attention will then turn to Thursday's US consumer price index data.

At the same time, the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank will start in Morocco, where the world's leading politicians will speak.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will speak at Tuesday's meeting after economic data the previous day heightened fears of a possible recession in Germany, the eurozone's largest economy.

In Asia, more bad news came from China, with Country Garden, the largest private property developer, saying it will not be able to meet all of its offshore payment obligations on time or within the relevant grace periods.

AN ALL-FOR-ONE. OPEC+ REPRESENANTIVES' MEETING

Dear clients,

Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman and the United Arab Emirates have reaffirmed their commitment to "collective and individual voluntary adjustments" to oil production, Saudi Arabia's state news agency reported on Sunday.

The six countries' oil ministers met in Riyadh on Sunday on the sidelines of the UN's MENA climate week.

"In addition, the ministers reaffirmed the willingness of the countries participating in the Declaration of Co-operation to take additional measures at any time as part of their ongoing efforts to support market stability, building on the strong cohesion of OPEC+," Saudi state news agency SPA said in a report.

OPEC+ agreed in June to extend voluntary oil production cuts, first introduced in April, until the end of 2024. Additional voluntary cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia have been extended until the end of 2023 and are subject to monthly reviews.

Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries ministers on Wednesday made no changes to the group's oil production policy after Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed they would maintain voluntary supply cuts to support the market.

TRADE OIL WITH IMPROVED SWAPS AND GET YOUR 100 BARRELS!

Dear clients,

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For example, for transferring an open position to the next day the sale of 1 lot on the #Brent contract swap will be 40 USD against 150 USD before the changes.

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Promotion terms and conditions:

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3. The prize fund - 100 barrels of Brent oil will be distributed among 5 randomly selected winners, each of whom will receive 20 barrels in dollar equivalent (at the Bid quote of the #BRENT instrument at the close of October 31);

4. The results of the draw will be published on November 1 in the company news;

5. The prizes will be credited within 5 working days after the results are announced in the "Balance" column, respectively fully available for trading and withdrawal.
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  #528  
Old 13-10-2023, 10:30
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TRIAL BY INFLATION

Dear clients,

Barely have the markets began to get used to the idea of a dovish stance from the Fed, as the unpleasant data on US producer inflation threatens to rain on parade, making for a nervous wait of the consumer price data to be released later today.

For now, the unchanged and for equity investors very welcome statement from Fed officials that caution should be exercised before further rate hikes drowns out any concerns about the data.

Asia-Pacific stocks picked up the baton from Wall Street, with Japan's Nikkei and Hong Kong's Hang Seng both rising more than 1%.

But how quickly markets reversed earlier in the week shows how quickly they can pull back. Despite the dovish notes, the Fed's underlying message remains that rates will rise as much as necessary to contain inflation.

While the prospect of US bond yields returning to 16-year highs above 5% is certainly a risk, there is a sense that the ceiling could be lower, while safe-haven assets are currently in demand amid geopolitical risks.

It's a big day for UK data too, with GDP and industrial production data coming out first.

At its meeting last month, the Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged for the first time since the start of the interest rate tightening cycle in December 2021, but traders are putting the possibility of another rate hike before the end of the first quarter of next year at stake.

TRADING SIGNALS: SEPTEMBER INFLATION IN THE USA

Dear clients,

A closely watched US inflation report may help solve one of the most pressing questions among traders: whether the market has correctly identified the short-term trajectory of interest rates.

What to expect this month, let's learn from our expert:

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported an increase in inflation expectations of the population, which is favourable for the US dollar, as the Fed may then raise interest rates at its next meeting in November. On Thursday consider selling GBPUSD, #NQ100 and buying USDZAR, USDTRY.

Let's celebrate our birthday together with FreshForex Birthday Challenge. Trade and win!

FINAL BOSS OF MICROSOFT\ACTIVISION BLIZZARD

Dear clients,

The UK competition authority on Friday approved Microsoft's acquisition of "Call of Duty" game maker Activision Blizzard after earlier concerns were allayed by a restructuring of the deal.

Activision agreed to sell its streaming rights to Ubisoft Entertainment in August, and last month Microsoft proposed measures to ensure compliance with the terms of the deal, allowing the regulator to allay some residual concerns.

The approval will allow Microsoft to complete the deal by 18 October, after it extended the deadline by three months in July to get the UK clearance.

The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) said Microsoft's concession on streaming was a "game changer" and added that it was the only competition organisation in the world to achieve such a result. 

"The new deal will not allow Microsoft to block competition in cloud gaming as this market evolves, keeping prices and services competitive for UK cloud gaming customers," it said in a statement.

Microsoft announced the biggest deal in gaming industry history in early 2022, but in April the $69bn acquisition was blocked by the CMA, concerned that the US computer giant would gain too much control over the nascent cloud gaming market.

CMA chief executive Sarah Cardell said: "We made it clear to Microsoft that the deal would be blocked unless they addressed all of our concerns and we stand by our judgement." She said the regulator, which has been given greater powers following the UK's exit from the European Union, makes decisions "without political influence" and will not be "subject to lobbying by corporations".

Microsoft expressed "gratitude for the CMA's careful consideration and judgement".

"We have now cleared the final hurdle to finalise a deal that we believe will benefit players and the gaming industry worldwide," said vice president and president Brad Smith.
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