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  #761  
Old 02-09-2022, 14:19
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Default Re: NordFX.com - ECN/STP, MT5, CQG, Multiterminal broker

August 2022 Results: Gold Trading Brings Gold Medal to NordFX Trader


NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in August 2022. The services of social trading, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed.

A client from Southeast Asia, account No. 1634XXX, rose to the top, “gold” step of the podium in August, earning 32,118 USD on transactions with gold (XAU/USD).
The second place was taken by their compatriot, account No. 1623XXX, who made transactions on a variety of pairs, including EUR/USD, GBP/CAD, GBP/USD, and earned 24,858 USD.

A trader from East Asia closes the TOP-3 with a result of 16,257 USD. This solid result was achieved thanks to operations with the XAU/USD, GBP/USD and EUR/USD pairs.

The situation in NordFX's passive investment services is as follows:

In CopyTrading, the “veteran” signals KennyFXPRO - Journey of $205 to $5,000 and KennyFXPRO - Prismo 2K continue to move profits up, slowly, but confidently. The first of them brought the profit to 401% in 545 days (374% a month ago), the second one reached 192% profit in 485 days (178% a month ago). Recall that the maximum drawdown for these signals was 67% and 45%, respectively, and occurred quite a long time ago, in mid-October 2021. After that, such unpleasant "surprises" were not observed. But the third signal from the same family, KennyFxPro - The Cannon Ball increased its drawdown from 7% to 30%, its profit for the month rose from 33% to 38%.

As for the BSTAR signal (profit 48%/max drawdown 14%/195 days of life), which we also mentioned in the previous review, there were no trades on it in August. Perhaps its author took a break during the summer holidays.

As for startups, as usual, there are quite a lot of them. Of these, we note the signals JANUNGFX (98%/29%/37), Andy EU250 (54%/25%/38), NORD GOLDEN_DUCK (50%/30%/48) and PT_Bot Scalping (48%/30%/61). Once again, we would like to remind you that rather aggressive trading and a short lifespan of signals are additional risk factors and require special caution when subscribing.

In the PAMM service, the TOP-3, or rather TOP-4, has not changed over the past month. The leader is still the same manager under the nickname KennyFXPRO. The capital on on his KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA account has been increased by 134% in 584 days. Also among the leaders were: TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3 account, which showed a profit of 97% in 515 days, NKFX-Ninja 136 account, which since June 11, 2021. brought a return of 88%, and COEX.Investment - Treis with a profit of 45% in 304 days.
All these accounts have a very moderate maximum drawdown, about 20%. Another account attracted attention, KennyFxPro - The Multi 3000 v2, which showed a yield of 16% in 66 days of life with a drawdown of less than 5%.

TOP 3 IB partners of NordFX received the following rewards in August:
- the largest commission, 11,265 USD, was accrued to a partner from East Asia, account No. 1259XXX;
- the second, as in July, is a partner from South Asia, account No. 1507ХХХ, who received 7,248 USD;
- and finally, a partner from South America, account No. 1274XXX, closes the TOP-3, who received 6,313 USD as a reward.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/
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  #762  
Old 04-09-2022, 11:33
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Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 05 - 09, 2022


EUR/USD: Rather Boring Week

The past week was, boring, so to say. The macro statistics released from August 30 to September 2, although versatile, turned out to be quite close to market expectations. For example, the harmonized consumer price index in Germany, was 8.8%, with the forecast of 8.8%. The consumer price index in the Eurozone amounted to 9.1% instead of the expected 9.0%. The index of business activity in the US manufacturing sector (PMI) did not change at all over the month and amounted to 52.8 (forecast 52.0), and the number of new jobs created outside the American agricultural sector (NFP) did not go far from the expected either, 315K against 300K. As a result, EUR/USD was moving along the parity line of 1.0000 all five days, fluctuating in the range of 0.9910-1.0078, and completed the five-day period at the level of 0.9955.

Market participants are likely to be much more active next week. The key day will certainly be Thursday September 08, when the ECB will decide on the deposit rate and make a statement and comments on its monetary policy. Inflation in the Eurozone rose even more in August: from 8.9% to 9.1%. Therefore, many experts, such as the strategists of the international financial group Nordea, believe that the European regulator will raise the rate by 75 basis points at once.

“Considering that the rate increase by 75 b.p. is not fully priced in financial markets and that the tone of the press conference is likely to be hawkish,” Nordea economists write, “we expect the first reaction from markets to be higher yields, wider bond spreads and a stronger euro.”

If we talk about the average forecast, it looks as follows at the time of writing the review, on the evening of Friday, September 02. 50% of experts vote for the fact that EUR/USDwill move south in the near future, 35% vote for its growth, the remaining 15% are waiting for the side trend to continue. The readings of the indicators on D1 give much more definite signals. Both among trend indicators and among oscillators, all 100% side with the bears. However, 10% among the latter give signals that the pair is oversold.

The nearest bearish target for EUR/USD is the 0.9900-0.9910 zone. Note that the 0.9900-0.9930 area is also a strong 2002 support/resistance zone. Apart from the parity level of 1.0000, if the euro strengthens, the first priority for the bulls will be to rise above the resistance of 1.0030. After that, it will be necessary to overcome the level of 1.0080 and consolidate in the zone of 1.0100-1.0280, the next target area is 1.0370-1.0470.

Among the upcoming week's events, apart from the ECB meeting, we can single out the publication of data on retail sales in the Eurozone on Monday, September 05. Monday is a holiday in the United States, the country celebrates Labor Day. We are waiting for data on business activity (ISM) in the US services sector on Tuesday, September 06, and GDP indicators in Germany and the Eurozone will be published on Wednesday. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak and data on unemployment in the United States will be published on the same day.

GBP/USD: On the Way to a 37-Year Low

We titled our review of the GBP/USD pair "Gloomy Forecasts for the Pound Continue to Come True" two weeks ago. The past headline sounded like "Very Terrible Long-Term Outlook" We can not say anything cheerful this week either: the pound is still one of the weakest G10 currencies, which is affected by the worsening prospects for the UK economy.

The British Chamber of Commerce (BCC) estimates that the UK is already in the midst of a recession and inflation will hit 14% this year. And according to Goldman Sachs, it could reach 22% by the end of 2023. According to the Financial Times, the number of British households living in fuel poverty will more than double in January to reach 12 million people. And the new prime minister will have to take urgent action to avoid an economic disaster. Just what action? It seems that no one knows yet.

In such a situation, the anxiety of market participants about the candidacy of the next prime minister, whose name will be announced on Monday, September 05, is quite understandable. Recall that the current Prime Minister Boris Johnson has resigned after a sex scandal involving one of his cabinet members.

Against this gloomy background, the pound has been falling since August 01. Having broken through support at 1.1500, it set two-year lows (1.1495) last week. As for the final chord of the five-day period, it sounded a little higher, at around 1.1510. Most experts (55%) believe that GBP/USD will continue to fall in the coming weeks. And it will not stop even if the Bank of England raises interest rates by 75 bp on September 15. 30% hope for a correction and 15% have taken a neutral position.

According to currency strategists at UOB Group, the next significant support level after 1.1500 is in the March 2020 lows. “However,” the specialists note, “short-term conditions are deeply oversold, and it is not yet clear if this major support will be within reach this time.” As for a possible correction to the north, the UOB believes that only a break above 1.1635 will indicate that the British currency is not ready to fall further.

Note that the March 2020 lows (1.1409-1.1415) are at the same time the lows for the last 37 (!) years. The GBP/USD pair fell lower to 1.0800, only in 1985. As for the bulls, they will meet resistance in the zones and at the levels of 1.1585-1.1625, 1.1700, 1.1750, 1.1800-1.1825, 1.1900 and 1.2000. The readings of the indicators on D1 are similar to the readings for the EUR/USD pair: all 100% are colored red. However, here a third of the oscillators signal that the pair is oversold, which often indicates a possible correction.

The United Kingdom's economic calendar can mark Monday 05 and Tuesday 06 September when the UK Services and Manufacturing PMIs and the Composite Index (PMI) will be released. A hearing on the inflation report will take place on Wednesday, September 07, but it will be more informative, and no important decisions will be made that day.

continued below...
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  #763  
Old 04-09-2022, 11:38
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USD/JPY: Higher, Higher and Higher

Most analysts (60%) had been expecting a new test of the July 14 high and taking the 139.40 high last week. This is exactly what happened. USD/JPY rose to the height of 140.79, thus reaching a 24-year high. The weekly trading session finished at 140.20.

The reason for another record is still the same: the divergence between the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and other major central banks, primarily the US Federal Reserve. Unlike the American hawks, the Japanese regulator still intends to pursue an ultra-soft policy, which is aimed at stimulating the national economy through quantitative easing (QE) and a negative interest rate (-0.1%). This divergence is a key factor for the further weakening of the yen and the growth of USD/JPY.

Bank of America Global Research economists expect USD/JPY to remain at high levels until a major correction in Q4 2022. Moreover, such a correction is possible only if inflation in the US shows a steady slowdown. “We expect USD/JPY to end 2022 at 127,” these analysts say. "However, the structural weakness of the Japanese yen should resurface in the longer term."

At the moment, the majority of analysts (50%) believe that USD/JPY will continue its movement to the north. Fortunately, it still has room to grow: it was worth more than 350 yen for 1 dollar back in 1971. 30% of experts expect the bulls to take a break in the area of the highs reached, and another 20% are counting on a corrective moving to the south.

For indicators on D1, the readings mirror the readings for the previous pair: 100% of them point north, while a third of the oscillators are in the overbought zone. The primary task of the bulls is to update the high of September 02 and rise above 140.80. The next goal is 142.00. Supports for the pair are located at the levels and in the zones 140.00, 138.35-139.05, 137.70, 136.70-137.00, 136.15-136.30, 135.50, 134.70, 134.00-134.25.

As for the economic events of the coming week, we can highlight the release of data on Japan's GDP on Thursday, September 08.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: All Hope for Ethereum


The BTC/USD pair was moving in a narrow range along the $21.330 horizon for a week before Jerome Powell's speech on August 26. The speech of the head of the Fed collapsed risky assets, the stock and crypto markets flew down. However, if the S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq stock indices continued to fall throughout the past week, bitcoin was able to stay in the $20,000 ($19,518-20,550) region, and ethereum even grew in anticipation of the transition to the PoS mechanism.

As a result, instead of the usual correlation of BTC/USDwith technology stocks, we could observe its correlation with the main major forex pair, EUR/USD these days, which moved sideways along the parity line of 1.0000. A slight recovery on Friday, September 2 was caused by the publication of data on unemployment in the US. But the pair did not go beyond the weekly trading range and bitcoin is trading at $19,930 at the time of writing the review. The total capitalization of the crypto market has fallen below the psychologically important level of $1 trillion and stands at $0.976 trillion ($0.991 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has fallen by another 2 points in seven days, from 27 to 25, and is in the Extreme Fear zone.

Over the past 10 years, it was only in 2018 that investors suffered more serious losses. And the pressure on the crypto market continues to persist, primarily due to the tightening of the monetary policy of the US Central Bank. According to CoinShares, the turnover of cryptocurrency investment products fell in the last decade of August to the lowest level since October 2020, and the outflow of funds continued for the third week in a row. “Although […] part of this dynamic is due to seasonal effects,” the specialists explain, “we also see continued apathy after the recent price decline. We think the caution is due to the Fed's hawkish rhetoric." In addition to speculators and casual "tourists", medium-term BTC holders (with a coin history of more than 5 months) began to leave the market.

The ranks of crypto enthusiasts are rapidly thinning out. Bitcoin is “a purely speculative asset with no utility,” due to the lack of technological progress. This was stated by Justin Bons, the founder and chief investment officer of the Cyber Capital fund. He used to be a vigorous advocate for bitcoin, but changed his point of view, calling it “one of the worst cryptocurrencies”. “The world has moved forward. It used to be said that digital gold would simply embrace the best technology. This thesis, obviously, has not been fully confirmed. Bitcoin doesn’t have smart contracts, privacy technologies, or scaling breakthroughs,” Bons explained.

“The economic properties of bitcoin are incredibly weak as well. It competes with cryptocurrencies that can achieve negative inflation, high storage capacity and utility, such as post-merger ETH.” “People, for the most part, invest in the first cryptocurrency only because they believe in the price increase. They act on the same principle as participants in Ponzi schemes,” the founder of Cyber Capital believes.

Umar Farooq, the head of Onyx's blockchain division, which is part of the JPMorgan conglomerate, also voiced a lot of criticism against the crypto market. In his opinion, most of the crypto assets on the market are “junk”, and the lack of full regulation of the industry deters many traditional financial institutions from participating in the market. In addition, the technologies and practical applications of digital currencies are not well developed. Because of this, for example, they cannot be used as products such as tokenized bank deposits.

Investor and broadcaster Kevin O'Leary also believes that the price of bitcoin is stagnating due to lack of regulation. As a result, institutionalists cannot invest in this sector. “You need to use the trillions of dollars that sovereign wealth manages, but they are not going to buy bitcoin because there is no regulation,” says O'Leary. “People forget that 70% of the world's wealth is in pension and sovereign wealth funds. Accordingly, if they are not allowed to buy this asset class, they do not bet on it.”

However, the investor believes that regulation will still appear within the next two to three years. In the meantime, without a regulatory framework, cryptocurrency cannot be considered a full-fledged asset class, and bitcoin is unlikely to rise above $25,000.

Analyst Justin Bennett's forecast looks much bleaker. According to him, the recent sell-off in the stock market will inevitably lead to a fall in the bitcoin rate: “The stock sale that has taken place confirms a major bull trap and is likely to cause prolonged decline. That is, the S&P500 will fall by about 16%, and BTC by 30%-40%, to the level of $12,000.”

“BTC is testing the 2015 trend line again,” the analyst writes. -"Do not believe those who consider it a healthy phenomenon. The two long bottom wicks of 2015 and 2020 indicating strong demand are worth looking out for. This time we are seeing exactly the opposite.” According to Bennett, the main target for the bears is the pre-COVID-19 high of $3,400.

Regarding ethereum, Bennett believes that the asset is forming the top of the “head and shoulders” pattern on the chart with a downward target near $1,000: “The right shoulder of this pattern is starting to form and ETH’s drop below $1,500 is the confirmation.”

A similar scenario is given by Bloomberg analysts. They are also predicting ETH to fall below $1,000 despite its recent comeback from the August 29 lows. This is largely due to the volatility of the ethereum price in bearish market conditions. “Technical indicators of momentum and price trends show that the token’s decline from a peak near $2,000 in mid-August to the current zone near $1,500 is likely to continue,” Bloomberg said in their report.

Sentiment in the ETH community has remained optimistic lately due to the upcoming merger. However, this has not provided the asset with any immunity to the latest unfavorable macroeconomic conditions, Bloomberg analysts write. Ethereum has established promising support on its 50-day moving average. However, after the market fell on August 25-26, the asset has been below this support, which indicates the risks of a further collapse and a retest of support around $1,000.

And some optimism at the end of the review. According to a number of experts, if the transition to the Ethereum 2.0 network and the implementation of the Proof-of-Stake mechanism go as planned, this altcoin can rise sharply in price and pull the entire market up with it, primarily its main competitor, bitcoin. Recall that the update of the ethereum network is scheduled for the period from September 15 to 20. So we will find out soon which of the predictions will be correct.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/
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  #764  
Old 07-09-2022, 15:53
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CryptoNews of the Week


- The bitcoin rate approached the June 19 low ($17,600), falling to $18,500 on September 7. Glassnode allowed BTC to fall further to support around $17,000. The specialists do not rule out such a wave of capitulation due to an increase in the proportion of "unprofitable" coins at the disposal of speculators (who traded in the previous 155 days). It rose to 96% (3.11 million BTC out of 3.24 million BTC). The situation was aggravated by the suspension of the bearish rally from June 19 to August 15. The rise in the price to $25,000 and its subsequent fall in just a few days transferred half of the speculators' coin reserves to the category of “unprofitable”.
In the short term, it is the stress testing of speculators that will determine the disposition in the market, since most of the on-chain activity was carried out by them. Three such episodes in the current downtrend had led earlier to sales with a short planning horizon and the subsequent formation of a local bottom. The long-term prospects of the first cryptocurrency, according to Glassnode analysts, remain constructive. This is confirmed by the increase in the number of coins at the disposal of hodlers.

- Analyst Kevin Swanson agrees with Glassnode's alarming prediction. He issued a warning about a possible downward movement of bitcoin as well. The US dollar soared to its highest level in 20 years, while bitcoin fell below the diagonal support that kept the asset afloat from its June lows of $17,600, Swanson said. Swanson admits further bearish scenario for bitcoin as the DXY dollar index is still in a strong uptrend.
Another expert, Naeem Aslam, believes that the fall will not be to the level of $18,000 or $15,000, but much lower, to about $12,000.

- Cryptoanalyst Nicholas Merten does not rule out either that bitcoin will soon collapse to a strong support level in the range of $12,000-14,000. He made this forecast based on the net unrealized profit and loss (NUPL), which shows the state of the positions of BTC holders. (When NUPL is above 0, most investors are in the black, if below 0, then more investors are in losses).
At the same time, Merten believes that the BTC movement can be unpredictable, since the asset has never been traded during a period of tightening monetary policy and raising interest rates. He also doubts the imminent return to quantitative easing (QE) by the US Federal Reserve, as it was in the past. “I would like to note,” the expert writes, “that there has never been a 50% recession, almost depressive correction or a bearish stock market in all 10 years during which BTC has been liquidly traded on exchanges, . There were typical bear markets around 20%, and then the Fed came to the rescue and saved the day. But the Fed cannot do the same now. If you print money and try to save the day, you can seriously exacerbate the problem of inflation.”

- A popular Twitter expert known as FatManTerra came up with a fake investment scheme as part of an experiment and raised more than $100,000 in bitcoins. On September 5, he tweeted about allegedly gaining access to a “highly profitable bitcoin farm” from an unnamed fund, and invited subscribers to join the farming. FatManTerra did not deliberately disclose additional details of the investment scheme, however, even without this information, he managed to collect this substantial amount in just a couple of hours.
“I want to send a clear message to everyone in the crypto world,” he wrote after the experiment, “anyone who offers you easy money is lying. Influencers who sell fast trading training or offer great investment opportunities are cheating on you.”
FatManTerra announced that he had returned all the money to users, and added that he had been inspired for the experiment by the Lady of Crypto account, which was accused of promoting dubious investment schemes among 257,500 subscribers.

- Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin was sure that the previous cryptocurrency bull market would end sooner or later. “I'm actually surprised that the collapse didn't happen sooner. Crypto bubbles usually last about 6-9 months after breaking the previous peak. This is followed by a rapid fall quite quickly. This time, the bull market lasted almost a year and a half,” Buterin said.
According to him, this is a reflection of the “cyclical dynamics” inherent in cryptocurrencies. “When prices go up, a lot of people say that this is the new paradigm and the future, and when they go down, people start saying it’s doomed, and they are fundamentally wrong.” According to Buterin, periodic price downturns help to “identify clearly” the problems in the industry and as well as unstable business models. The latter thrive during the boom in the market due to the influx of new money, but their model stops working during the downturn. He cited the recent collapse of the Terra project and the BitConnect investment scam that collapsed in 2017 as examples.
Buterin acknowledged that bearish phases have a negative impact on the design and development of protocols, as it is difficult to support sprawling teams financially. “But I don’t claim to [have invented] a cure for these dynamics,” he concluded.

- Hackers stole 119.2 ETH (about $185,000) from the crypto wallet of famous actor Bill Murray. The funds had been received for the sale at a charity auction of the NFT “Beer with Bill Murray”, which gives the right to drink beer with the actor. The proceeds were to be donated to a non-profit organization helping veterans and rescuers.
Murray's team was partially successful in thwarting the break-in and protecting about 800 NFTs in the actor's collection and is now working with police and analytics firm Chainalysis to track down the intruders.

- According to the TradingView service, the ratio of ethereum to bitcoin has grown to its highest values for 2022. It was fixed at 0.0843 in the afternoon of September 06. The last time such a level was noted was in December 2021. 1 BTC is worth about 12.4 ETH at current values.
The ETH community has linked the growth of this indicator to the upcoming network merger. Many users have been talking for almost a year now that a revolution will happen in this tandem sooner or later. Then ethereum will overtake bitcoin in terms of capitalization and value. The Merge procedure is scheduled for the period between September 13 and 15, 2022, however, the preparatory part of the event will take place on September 07.
This merge is likely to be the most important event of 2022 in the cryptocurrency industry. This is because it will bring several key changes to how the network works. The main ones are a 99.99% reduction in energy consumption and a decrease in the emission of the ETH coin.

- Experts of the u.today portal noted that September 13, 2022 will be a key date for the cryptocurrency market, not only due to the merge of Ethereum (ETH) networks. There is one more factor. Fresh data from the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be published on the same day. According to analysts, this information will help investors understand what is happening with the inflation rate in the country and will directly affect the financial markets, including cryptocurrency.
U.today suggested that if the Merge update does not cause problems with volatility, liquidity and security, and the CPI shows a decrease in inflation, a bullish momentum can be predicted, otherwise the crypto market will continue to fall.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/
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  #765  
Old 08-09-2022, 14:09
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Default Re: NordFX.com - ECN/STP, MT5, CQG, Multiterminal broker

New NordFX Super Lottery: 202 Prizes in 2022 The Next Draw Is on October 6. Grab Your Chance!


The NordFX brokerage company started a new super lottery, which will give away 200 cash prizes of 250, 500 and 1,250 USD, as well as 2 two super prizes of 10,000 USD each. The total prize fund will be 100,000 USD. Draws will take place on October 06, 2022, and January 04, 2023.

It is very easy to take part in the lottery and get a chance to win one or even several of these prizes. It is enough to have a Pro account in NordFX (and for those who do not have it - register and open a new one), top it up with $200 and... just trade.

Having made a trading turnover of only 2 lots in Forex currency pairs or gold (or 4 lots in silver), the trader will automatically receive a virtual lottery ticket. The number of such lottery tickets for one participant is not limited. The more deposits and the greater the turnover, the more lottery tickets the participant will have, and the greater their chances of becoming a winner.

Another advantage is that lottery winners receive their winnings not as bonuses, but as real money, which, if they wish, can be either used in further trading or withdrawn without any restrictions.

Visit the NordFX website for more details. You can become a participant of the Super Lottery 2022 and start receiving lottery tickets right now.

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/
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  #766  
Old 11-09-2022, 14:32
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Default Re: NordFX.com - ECN/STP, MT5, CQG, Multiterminal broker

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 12 - 16, 2022


EUR/USD: Two Events of the Week

The past week was marked by two significant events. First, the EUR/USD pair updated its 20-year low on Tuesday, September 06 once again, falling to 0.9863. And then the European Central Bank raised its key interest rate for the first time in its history by 75 basis points (bp) to 1.25% on Thursday, September 08, accompanying this act with very hawkish comments.

We must say that both events did not come as a surprise to the market and, on the whole, were in line with the forecasts that we voiced in the previous review. The pair's rebound to the upside following the ECB's decision was not surprising either. Having risen by about 250 points, it peaked at 1.0113 on September 9. This was followed by a correction to the north, and the pair finished at 1.0045

Despite such a hawkish move, the ECB is still far from the US Fed: the current rate on the dollar is 2.50%, which is exactly twice as high as on the euro. But this is not all. If the September meeting of the European regulator has already passed, its American counterpart still has it ahead. And if the Fed's FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) raises the rate on September 21 once again, the dollar will go even further into the lead. And the probability of such a step is close to 100%.

It is still difficult to predict what both Central Banks will do next month, October. But there is a feeling that the ECB may, at least for a while, lower its hawkish attitude to understand how the rate hike has affected inflation and the state of the economy. The factor of the energy crisis in Europe, caused by anti-Russian sanctions, is still playing against the euro. However, the leadership of the European Union is taking active steps to reduce energy dependence on Russia on the eve of winter. And judging by the fact that the Eurozone GDP growth published on September 7 turned out to be higher than both the previous value and the forecast (4.1% versus 3.9%), stagflation may be avoided.

At the time of writing this review, on the evening of Friday, September 09, the votes of the experts are distributed as follows. 55% of analysts stand for the fact that EUR/USD will continue to move south in the near future, 30% vote for its growth and the strengthening of the euro, the remaining 15% predict a side trend along Pivot Point 1.0000. The readings of indicators on D1 do not give any certainty. Among trend indicators, the ratio of forces is 50% to 50%. Among the oscillators, there is a slight advantage on the green side, 50%, 35% are on the red side, and 15% are colored in neutral gray.

The main trading range of the last three weeks was within 0.9900-1.0050. Taking into account breakdowns in both directions, it is somewhat wider, 0.9863-1.0113. The next strong support after the 0.9860 zone is located around 0.9685. The resistance levels and targets of the bulls look like this: 1.0130, then 1.0254, the next target area is 1.0370-1.0470.

There will be quite a lot of important events in the coming week. Consumer Price Indices (CPI) in Germany and the US will be published on Tuesday, September 13. CPI is an indicator of consumer inflation and reflects changes in the level of prices for groups of goods and services in August. The September ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in Germany will be released the same day. Another batch of economic statistics will arrive on Wednesday, September 14 and Thursday, September 15 in the form of the Producer Price Index (PPI) and data on retail sales and unemployment in the US. We are waiting for the publication of the Eurozone CPI, as well as the US University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, at the end of the working week, on Friday, September 16.

GBP/USD: British Pound's Anti Record


We titled our previous review of GBP/USD "On the Way to a 37-Year Low". Recall that the lows of March 2020 (1.1409-1.1415) were at the same time the lows for the last 37 years. And now, this offensive forecast for the British currency came true: the pair reached a local bottom at around 1.1404 on September 07, breaking the 2020 anti-record. Then the euro, strengthening against the dollar, pulled up other currencies, including the pound. As a result, GBP/USD rose to 1.1647, and the five-day period closed at 1.1585.

An important event on August 7 was the hearing of the UK Inflation Report and the speeches by members of the Monetary Policy Committee, headed by the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey. As predicted, officials reaffirmed their commitment to tightening monetary policy (QT). Their statements strengthened the market's expectations that the regulator could raise the rate from 1.75% to 2.50% at its September meeting. This meeting was originally scheduled for next Thursday. However, due to mourning for Queen Elizabeth II, it was postponed for a week and will take place on September 22, after the US Federal Reserve makes its decision on the rate.

If the forecast for a growth in the interest rate on the pound comes true, this will create an even greater burden on the UK economy, which already causes serious concerns. The UK is already amid a recession and inflation will hit 14% this year, according to the British Chamber of Commerce (BCC). And according to Goldman Sachs, it could reach 22% by the end of 2023, which will provoke a protracted economic downturn and a contraction of the economy by more than 3.5%. British energy regulator Ofgem has already announced that average annual electricity bills for UK households will rise by 80% from October. And according to the Financial Times, the number of fuel-poor households will more than double in January to 12 million.

Of course, investors are very worried about whether the new prime minister, Liz Truss, will be able to cope with the deplorable situation in which the country's economy has found itself. Having failed to fully recover from Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic, the United Kingdom has faced unprecedented inflation, a decline in the population's ability to pay and a catastrophic collapse of the national currency.

The median forecast for the coming week looks fairly neutral. A third of analysts side with the bulls, another third side with the bears, and another third have taken a neutral position. The indicator readings on D1 are mostly colored red. Among the trend indicators, the ratio is 70% to 30% in favor of the red ones. For oscillators, 65% point south and 35% point east. No oscillators are pointing north.

As for the bulls, they will meet resistance in the zones and at the levels of 1.1600, 1.1650, 1.1720, 1.1800, 1.1865-1.1900, 1.2000, 1.2050-1.2075, 1.2160-1.2200. The nearest support, apart from the 1.1475-1.1510 zone, is the September 07 low 1.1404. One can only guess to what levels the pair can fall further. Given the increased volatility, it is probably not worth focusing on either round values, or Fibonacci levels, or any figures of graphical analysis.

With regard to the economic statistics of the United Kingdom, data on GDP and output should arrive on Monday, September 12, that on the level of wages and unemployment in the country will be published on Tuesday, September 13. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be published on Wednesday, September 14, and retail sales in the UK will be known on Friday, September 16. The source of all this data is the Office for National Statistics, so the schedule for their publication is subject to change due to mourning for Elizabeth II.

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Old 11-09-2022, 14:35
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USD/JPY: Astronaut Pair

USD/JPY rose to a high of 140.79 on September 2, thus reaching a 24-year high. Most analysts were waiting for another rise and taking new heights from the past week. This is exactly what happened: the pair soared to the level of 144.985 on Wednesday, September 07. The last chord of the week sounded a bit lower, at 142.65.

Describing the cause of what happened is quite simple using Copy Paste on the keyboard, it is enough to take any of our reviews over the past couple of years. That's what we're doing right now. So, the reason is the same: the divergence between the monetary policies of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and other major Central Banks, primarily the US Federal Reserve. Unlike the American hawks, the Japanese regulator still intends to pursue an ultra-soft policy, which is aimed at stimulating the national economy through quantitative easing (QE) and a negative interest rate (-0.1%). This divergence is a key factor for the further weakening of the yen and the growth of USD/JPY. And the situation will not change until BOJ raises the rate.

And why should the Japanese Central Bank raise it? The published data on the country's GDP (Q2) look quite good: the indicator rose from 0.5% to 0.9%, while the forecast was 0.7%. Of course, inflation in Japan has exceeded the 2% target, which is bad. But this is almost nothing compared to inflation in the US, the Eurozone or the UK. So there is no need to worry too much here. So Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said that price increases will be extinguished not by tightening monetary policy, but, on the contrary, by injecting 5.5 billion yen from the budget reserve. In addition, the minister said that he is "closely monitoring the movement of the exchange rate", that "it is important that it moves steadily" and that "abrupt movements of the currency are undesirable."

Haruhiko Kuroda, Governor of the Bank of Japan, said almost the same thing, word for word, on Friday, September 09, after his meeting with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. His main theses are as follows: "I discussed the foreign exchange market with Kishida", "Fast movements in the exchange rate are undesirable", "We will closely monitor the movement of exchange rates."

We do not know what is so positive in the words of these high officials, but, as the media write, thanks to them the yen received support, and now 45% of experts vote for its further strengthening. Another 45% remain neutral, and only 10% are waiting for further growth of USD/JPY. The indicators on D1 have an absolute advantage on the side of the greens. Among oscillators there are 100% of them, among trend indicators - 90%, and only 10%* on the side of the reds.

The nearest resistance is 143.75. The bulls' task No.1 is to renew the high of September 07 and gain a foothold above 145.00. Back in the spring, when analyzing the rate of the pair's rise, we made a forecast according to which it could reach a peak of 150.00 in September. And it looks like it's starting to come true. Supports for the pair are located at the levels and in the zones 142.00, 140.60, 140.00, 138.35-139.05, 137.50, 135.60-136.00, 134.40, 132.80, 131.70.

No important events in the economic life of Japan are expected this week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Main Week of the Calendar

Last week was marked by another wave of sales. The bitcoin rate approached the June 19 low ($17,600), falling to $18,543 on September 7. At the same time, Ethereum fell below $1,500, an important support/resistance level, and recorded a local bottom at $1,488. This dynamic is primarily due to the hawkish rhetoric of the Fed and, as a result, the strengthening of the US currency. However, later, against the background of the ECB meeting, both coins won back their losses in full, and even seriously increased in quotes. At the time of writing this review, on Friday evening, September 9, they are trading as follows: BTC/USD at $21.275, ETH/USD at $1,715. The total capitalization of the crypto market has risen slightly above the psychologically important level of $1 trillion and is $1.042 trillion ($0.976 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has fallen by another 3 points in seven days from 25 to 22 and is in the Extreme Fear zone.

According to the TradingView service, the ratio of ethereum to bitcoin has grown to its highest values for 2022. It was fixed at 0.0843 in the afternoon of September 06. The last time such a level was noted was in December 2021. 1 BTC is worth about 12.4 ETH at current values.

The ETH community has linked the growth of this indicator to the upcoming network merger. Many users have been talking for almost a year now that a revolution will happen in this tandem sooner or later. Then ethereum will overtake bitcoin in terms of capitalization and value. Recall that the update of the ethereum network is scheduled for the period from September 13 to 20. This merge is likely to be the most important event of 2022 in the cryptocurrency industry. This is because it will bring several key changes to how the network works. The main ones are a 99.99% reduction in energy consumption and a decrease in the emission of the ETH coin.

According to a number of experts, if the transition to the Ethereum 2.0 network and the implementation of the Proof-of-Stake mechanism go as planned, this altcoin can rise sharply in price and pull the entire market up with it, primarily its main competitor, bitcoin. But that's if everything goes smoothly and according to plan. Or maybe not. So, it became known on Wednesday, September 07 that the ethereum network encountered a problem after the Bellatrix update. The blockchain is seeing a noticeable spike in “number of missed blocks,” the frequency with which the network fails to process blocks of transactions scheduled for validation. This figure has increased by about 1700%. Before the update, it was about 0.5%, and after the Bellatrix it rose to 9%.

CoinShares Chief Strategy Officer Meltem Demirors believes that investors are ignoring the general situation in the market, amid the hype around the transition of ETH to the PoS mechanism. And that, despite the benefits of the merger for the ethereum network itself, it is not certain that this event will attract significant investment capital: “While there is significant enthusiasm in the crypto community for a merger that can rapidly reduce supply and increase demand, the reality is more prosaic: investors are concerned about rates and macro indicators. I believe that significant amounts of new capital are unlikely to enter ETH. There are certain risks that need to be played out in the market because the merger has been used as an excuse to buy on the rumor and sell on the news. How will these risks be played out? Most likely on the institutional side or through trading, but through options rather than outright purchases of the asset.”

Experts of u.today portal also remind about macro statistics. They note that September 13 could be an important date, not only because of the merger of the ethereum networks. There is one more factor. As we wrote above, fresh data from the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be published on the same day. According to analysts, this information will help investors understand what is happening with the inflation rate in the country and will directly affect the financial markets, including cryptocurrency. If the network update does not cause problems with volatility, liquidity and security, and the CPI shows a decrease in inflation, then a bullish momentum can be predicted, otherwise the crypto market will continue to fall.

Glassnode allowed BTC to fall further to support around $17,000. The specialists do not rule out such a wave of capitulation due to an increase in the proportion of "unprofitable" coins at the disposal of speculators (who traded in the previous 155 days). It rose to 96% (3.11 million BTC out of 3.24 million BTC). The situation was aggravated by the suspension of the bearish rally from June 19 to August 15. The rise in the price to $25,000 and its subsequent fall in just a few days transferred half of the speculators' coin reserves to the category of “unprofitable”.

In the short term, it is the stress testing of speculators that will determine the disposition in the market, since most of the on-chain activity was carried out by them. Three such episodes in the current downtrend had led earlier to sales with a short planning horizon and the subsequent formation of a local bottom.

Analyst Kevin Swenson agrees with Glassnode's alarming outlook. He issued a warning about a possible downward movement of bitcoin as well. The US dollar soared to its highest level in 20 years, while bitcoin fell below the diagonal support that kept the asset afloat from its June lows of $17,600, Swanson said. Swanson admits further bearish scenario for bitcoin as the DXY dollar index is still in a strong uptrend.

Another expert, Naeem Aslam, believes that the fall will not be to the level of $18,000 or $15,000, but much lower, to about $12,000.

Cryptoanalyst Nicholas Merten does not rule out either that bitcoin will soon collapse to a strong support level in the range of $12,000-14,000. He made this forecast based on the net unrealized profit and loss (NUPL), which shows the state of the positions of BTC holders. (When NUPL is above 0, most investors are in the black. If below 0, then more investors suffer losses).

At the same time, Merten believes that the BTC movement can be unpredictable since the asset has never been traded during a period of tightening monetary policy and raising interest rates. He also doubts the imminent return to quantitative easing (QE) by the US Federal Reserve, as it was in the past. “I would like to note,” the expert writes, “that there has never been a 50% recession, almost depressive correction or a bearish stock market in all 10 years during which BTC has been liquidly traded on exchanges, . There were typical bear markets around 20%, and then the Fed came to the rescue and saved the day. But the Fed cannot do the same now. If you print money and try to save the day, you can seriously exacerbate the problem of inflation.”

And some positive at the end of the review. Despite the fall in the capitalization of the crypto market and the bankruptcy of a number of large projects, the bitcoin hash rate is close to its historical maximum. The situation seems inconsistent with the fall of the main cryptocurrency by more than 70% from the maximum, and the collapse of the shares of public mining companies. However, miners continue to introduce new capacities. Analysts attribute this to the optimism of some companies and the readiness for market turbulence of others. If we add to this the Glassnode data, which observes an increase in the number of coins at the disposal of hodlers, then we can hope that the crypto winter will still be followed by spring.


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Old 14-09-2022, 14:17
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CryptoNews of the Week


- Inflation in the US in August that was published on September 13, has amounted to 8.3%. Although this is less than the previous indicator of 8.5%, the figures have not lived up to market expectations. The forecast had assumed a decline to 8.1%. Market participants decided that the US Federal Reserve will tighten its monetary policy more actively and raise interest rates in such a situation. It is expected that the rate will rise by at least another 0.75% next week. As a result, against this background, the dollar began to rise sharply, and risky assets, including bitcoin and ethereum, started to fall. BTC fell below $20,000, ETH fell below $1,550.

- Analysts recorded the largest outflow of funds from crypto funds since June. According to CoinShares, it amounted to $63 million from September 03 to September 09 against $8.7 million a week earlier. Over the past five weeks, the cumulative withdrawal of funds from cryptocurrency products amounted to $99 million. Trade turnover (~$1 billion) was 46% below the average for this year.
The outflow from Ethereum funds continued for the third week in a row at even higher rates ($61.6 million vs. $2.1 million a week earlier). Analysts attributed this to investors' fears about possible problems of The Merge scheduled for September 15.

- The transition of the Ethereum network from Proof-of-Work to Proof-of-Stake (PoS) will not solve the problems of scalability or high fees, but may lead to wider institutional adoption. The notable decrease in power consumption after The Merge will allow some investors to purchase this altcoin for the first time. This opinion was expressed by analysts of Bank of America (BofA).
“The ability to place ETH and generate higher quality returns (lower credit and liquidity risk) as a validator or through staking […] could also drive institutional adoption,” BofA admitted.

- A trader and analyst under the nickname filbfilb allowed in an interview with Cointelegraph the bitcoin to fall from current levels to $10,000-11,000. According to the specialist, bitcoin has become highly correlated with the Nasdaq, which is under enormous pressure due to the Fed's policies. The first cryptocurrency behaves as a risky asset, not as inflation insurance.
The expert noted that the upcoming winter will be a serious test for residents and politicians of the European Union, the consequences of which will have a negative impact on hodlers. The important thing will be how the countries of the Old World will cope with the energy crisis. According to him, everything is in the hands of diplomats who are able to prevent an emergency. Otherwise, risky assets will face a difficult future, which will also affect the positions of cryptocurrencies. The dialogue between Russia and NATO is important: the sooner it starts, the higher the bitcoin low will be, filbfilb emphasized.
The expert called the rally of bitcoin in the Q1 2023 "obvious". He sees two reasons for this. The first is the seasonal factor. Downtrends end 1000 days after the halving (which will be early next year. The second is a change in sentiments to positive ones, based on game theory. With a probability of 2/3, the expert suggested that Europe will survive the coming winter. But if things go badly, it will increase the likelihood of a dialogue with Russia that will bring stability in the short term.
The specialist also commented on the upcoming Merge on the ethereum network. He noted that the reduction in the issue of the asset could spur the growth of the coin. At the same time, filbfilb has not ruled out a dump after the event itself, citing the reaction of bitcoin after the halving, which is similar in effect to the merge.

- Another analyst and trader with the nickname Rekt Capital believes that everything is moving towards the final phase of bitcoin's decline. “A significant part of the BTC bear market is behind us, and the entire bull market is ahead. The bottom of the bear market will be in November, December or the beginning of the Q1 2023.”
The trader noted that the data signal a possible rise in BTC by 200%, but there is one caveat: Bitcoin could fall even more before it goes up. “Of course, in the short term, the BTC price could fall by 5%-10%,” Rekt Capital writes. “But in the long term, a rally of more than 200% is very likely.”

- Cryptocurrency analyst with the nickname Rager does not believe in the decline of BTC to $12,000. He noted that there are no guarantees when dealing with bitcoin, but it is very likely that the asset is forming a bear market bottom above $19,000. “A significant part of investors are wondering if the current levels are the low of the cycle. It is likely, but it is also worth noting that these levels are a good option for accumulating BTC for the long term. Everyone has seen bitcoin bounce around $19,000 several times, Rager writes. In addition, the analyst believes that the coin is still highly correlated with the S&P 500 index. And therefore, we will not see new cycle lows as long as it is above 3,896 points.

- The dependence of BTC on the US stock market weakened sharply in August and was at the annual low. However, it has begun to grow again and, according to the TradingView service, the correlation between bitcoin and the S&P 500 index has reached 0.59. The situation is similar with the Nasdaq. The correlation with it fell to 0.31 in August, and it rose to 0.62 in September. Analysts remind that the dependence of the crypto sphere on the stock market becomes strong after the correlation index rises above 0.5. When 0.7 is reached, the dependence becomes ideal.

- Despite the depreciation of BTC, MicroStrategy intends to continue the acquisition of this asset. It will reportedly sell $500 million worth of its own shares. The proceeds from these sales will be used, among other things, to replenish the cryptocurrency stocks.
Earlier, MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor stepped down as CEO to focus on the company's plans to acquire BTC. MicroStrategy has grown its holdings of bitcoin under his leadership, making it the largest corporate holder of the asset. It currently owns 129,699 coins purchased at an average exchange rate of $30,664. The last purchase (480 BTC) was made in June.

- Eugene Fama, American economist, and Nobel Prize winner in 2013, believes that the first cryptocurrency will only have value if it is used as money. However, according to the scientist, the viability of bitcoin as a means of payment is greatly reduced due to its high volatility. “Monetary theory says that a unit of account will not survive unless it has a sufficiently stable real value. Its real price should not rise and fall sharply,” the Nobel laureate believes.
Fama disagrees with the claim that BTC is a store of value. According to him, the idea that bitcoin has value should be considered a temporary phenomenon. “There has to be something really useful in the product so that people want to keep it for a very long time. But bitcoin has nothing that gives it value other than the investors who hold it. […] So bitcoin will collapse at some point,” the economist says.

- Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Investment Partners, does not agree with Eugene Fama. He noted during his interview at the SALT conference that he is optimistic about the immediate prospects for the crypto-currency industry. In his opinion, many digital currencies can demonstrate their practical value in the foreseeable future. Novogratz also focused on the fact that the actions of market participants are formed taking into account the general rhetoric regarding a particular crypto project, and not its real functionality.
The expert added that BlackRock's entry into the crypto industry can be considered a monumental event that can have a significant impact on the entire segment in the future. Recall that BlackRock, Inc. is one of the world largest investment companies and the largest in the world in terms of assets.

- According to a survey conducted by Harris Poll, 70% of US crypto investors hope to become billionaires. Harris Poll interviewed 1,900 Americans from all age groups. Those who claim that cryptocurrencies can bring them billions are mostly millennials or generation Z. Analysts emphasized that American youth do not trust traditional financial instruments, while digital currencies, on the contrary, are becoming more and more attractive to them.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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Old 17-09-2022, 14:08
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Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 19 - 23, 2022


EUR/USD: Ahead of the US Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting

The World Bank said last week that risks of a recession in 2023 are growing amid simultaneous tightening of monetary policy by the world's leading Central banks and the energy crisis in Europe. According to Citigroup strategists, the dollar remains the only safe haven for investors to hedge against the risk of drawdown in investment portfolios.

Global stock markets have lost $23 trillion since the early 2022, and bond prices have also declined. As for the US currency, it continues to grow, unlike stocks and other risky assets. According to experts' forecasts, the DXY Dollar Index may come close to 112.00 points over the next three months, renewing a 20-year high. Investors' belief that the US economy will cope better with the impending global recession than the economies of other countries and regions strengthens the dollar as well.

Markets are now focused on the next FOMC meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which will be held on Wednesday, September 21. The key parameters that determine the monetary policy of the Central Bank at the present stage are inflation and the state of the labor market. Important statistics were released last week, including retail sales and unemployment claims in the US. This data strengthened investors in the opinion that the Fed will continue the policy of quantitative tightening (QT). According to the CME Group, the probability of another rate increase by 75 basis points (bp) is estimated at 74%, and by 100 bps at 26%. In addition, Wells Fargo analysts believe that the rate hike will be supplemented by an acceleration in the rate of balance sheet reduction.

The Fed's forecast for a neutral level of interest rates will be updated at this meeting as well. The median forecast for the federal funds rate in 2022 is expected to be revised to 3.875%, up from 3.375% in the June forecast.

All of the above steps may lead to further strengthening of the dollar and the fall of the stock market. The reverse scenario will be possible only if the announced plans are suddenly abandoned. However, this can only happen with a sharp decline in GDP, rising unemployment and a convincing victory over inflation. Neither one, nor the other, nor the third has yet been observed in the United States.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), published on September 13, fell from 8.5% to 8.3% over the month. However, the forecast assumed a stronger fall, to 8.1%. An additional negative was the rise in core inflation to 6.3% y/y, which is the highest since March and more than three times higher than the Central Bank's target of 2%. But the labor market, on the contrary, is doing quite well, which supports forecasts for a rise in interest rates. Employment growth over the past two months has been robust, averaging 421K new jobs.

As for the Eurozone, inflation accelerated to 9.1% in August. Based on this, some analysts believe that the ECB may also continue to raise the rate in 0.75% increments. However, the next meeting of this regulator is not yet soon, on October 27. So it lags far behind in tightening (QT) from its overseas counterpart. At the same time, according to Rabobank strategists, the unstable situation in the region may mean that “raising rates will not significantly strengthen the euro.” Given the strength of the US dollar, experts believe that the EUR/USD pair may fall to 0.9500 in the coming weeks.

The EUR/USD ended the week at 1.0013. At the time of writing this review, on the evening of Friday, September 16, the votes of the experts are distributed as follows. 75% of analysts say that the pair will continue moving south in the near future, another 25% vote for the continuation of the side trend along Pivot Point 1.0000. There is not a single vote on the side of the bulls.

Among the trend indicators on D1, 65% are red, 35% are green. Among the oscillators, 25% are on the green side, the same 25% on the red side, and 50% are colored neutral gray.

The pair has been moving along the parity line for the past four weeks. The main trading range was within 0.9900-1.0050. Taking into account breakdowns in both directions, it is somewhat wider: 0.9863-1.0197. The next strong support after the 0.9860 zone is located around 0.9685, the bears' target, as mentioned above, is 0.9500. The resistance levels and targets of the bulls look like this: 1.0050, 1.0080, 1.0130, then 1.0200 and 1.0254, the next target area is 1.0370-1.0470.

In addition to the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting and subsequent forecasts and comments, we expect fresh data on unemployment in the US next week. It will be published on Thursday September 23. And business activity indicators (PMI) in Germany and in the Eurozone as a whole will become known at the end of the working week, on Friday, September 23.

GBP/USD: Ahead of the Bank of England Meeting

The British currency has set another anti-record. Having risen to 1.1737 at the beginning of the week, GBP/USD then turned around and flew down rapidly. Wednesday brought a little respite, and then the flight continued. The landing occurred on Friday 16 September at 1.1350. The pair was this low 37 years ago, in 1985. The last chord of the week sounded 75 points higher, at 1.1425.

Apart from the strengthening of the dollar on expectations of a rate hike by the Fed, additional pressure on the British currency was exerted by a drop in retail sales in the United Kingdom. They fell 1.6% m/m in August, more than three times the 0.5% forecast.

According to analysts, a strong technical correction can stop the collapse. And that's only for a while. Strategists from MUFG Bank believe that the downtrend of GBP/USD may continue to a historic low of 1.0520. “With the UK budget and current account deficits combined to reach an impressive 15% of GDP, downward pressure on the GBP will continue,” they write.

The Bank of England will also announce its interest rate decision the next day after the FOMC meeting, on Thursday, September 22. The main forecast suggests that it may rise by 50 bp, from 1.75% to 2.25%. However, it is possible that the regulator will immediately raise the rate to 2.50%, which will support the British currency for some time.

However, this is a double-edged sword. If the rate increase forecast comes true, this will create an even greater burden on the country's economy, whose health is already causing serious concern. We previously wrote that, according to the estimates of the British Chamber of Commerce (BCC), the UK is already in the midst of a recession, and inflation will reach 14% this year. And according to Goldman Sachs, it could reach 22% by the end of 2023, which will provoke a protracted economic downturn and a contraction of the economy by more than 3.5%. British energy regulator Ofgem has already announced that average annual electricity bills for UK households will rise by 80% from October. And according to the Financial Times, the number of fuel-poor households will more than double in January to 12 million.

Ahead of the Fed and Bank of England meetings, the median outlook for next week looks neutral. A third of the analysts side with the dollar, another third - with the pound, and another third have taken a neutral position. The readings of the indicators on D1 are almost all red again. These are 100% among the trend indicators. For oscillators, 85% point south and 15% point east. No oscillators are pointing north.

As for the bulls, they will meet resistance in the zones and at the levels of 1.1475, 1.1535, 1.1600, 1.1650, 1.1710-1.1740, 1.1800, 1.1865-1.1900, 1.2000. The nearest support is in the 1.1400-1.1415 zone, followed by the September 16 low at 1.1350. One can only guess to what levels, given the increased volatility, the pair may fall further. Let us only repeat that the 1985 historical low is at 1.0520.

Among the events of the coming week, except for the Bank of England meeting, the calendar includes Friday, September 23, when data on business activity (PMI) in the UK will be published. It should also be noted that the country has a bank holiday on Monday, September 19.

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Old 17-09-2022, 14:13
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USD/JPY: Ahead of the Bank of Japan Meeting

In addition to the Fed and Bank of England meetings, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will also meet next week. According to forecasts, the Japanese regulator will continue to adhere to the ultra-soft monetary policy and keep the negative interest rate (-0.1%) unchanged.

A miracle can happen of course, but its probability is close to 0. At the same time, the BOJ's unilateral actions, according to economists from Societe Generale, will only be enough to stop the weakening of the yen. But they will not be enough to reverse the USD/JPY downtrend. Societe Generale calls a recession in the US, which will lead to a drop in the yield of US Treasury obligations, as another prerequisite.

USD/JPY ended the trading session last week at 142.90, failing to reach the 145.00 high. However, according to Bank of America analysts, the pair's bullish sentiment remains, and it is still aimed at moving towards 150.00. At the same time, bank specialists note the following three levels: Fibo 38.2% correction (head and shoulders) at 145.18, the peak of 1999 at 147.00, and the target A=C at 149.53.

The closest resistance for the pair, just like a week ago, is 143.75. The bulls' task No. 1 is to gain a foothold above 145.00. Back in the spring, when analyzing the rate of the pair's rise, we made a forecast according to which it could reach a peak of 150.00 in September. And it may come true against the background of a rise in the Fed's interest rate. Supports for the pair are located at the levels and in the zones 142.00-142.20, 140.60, 140.00, 138.35-139.05, 137.50, 135.60-136.00, 134.40, 132.80, 131.70.

The opinion of Bank of America analysts is supported by 65% of experts, 25% have taken the opposite position, the remaining 10% remain neutral. Oscillators on D1 are 100% on the green side, although 10% of them signal being overbought. Among trend indicators, 75% are green and *25% are red.

With the exception of the BOJ meeting, no important macro data on the Japanese economy is expected to be released this week. Traders should also note that Monday, September 19 and Friday, September 23 are non-working days in Japan.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: ETH After the Merge: Fall Instead of Growth


We usually start our review with the main cryptocurrency, bitcoin. But this time, let's deviate from the rules and give the palm to the main altcoin, Ethereum. This is due to an event that may become the most important for the crypto industry in 2022. On September 15, the ETH network hosted the global update The Merge, which involves the transition of the altcoin from the Proof-of-Work protocol to Proof-of-Stake (PoS). This means that now the security of the blockchain will be ensured not by miners, but by validators: users who have deposited and blocked their share of coins (staking).

Now, instead of running large networks of computers, validators will use their Ethereum cache as a means of validating transactions and mining new tokens. This should improve the speed and efficiency of the network so that it can process more transactions and solve the problem of user growth. The developers claim that the update will make the network that hosts the ecosystem of cryptocurrency exchanges, lending companies, non-playable token (NFT) markets and other applications more secure and scalable. In addition, cryptocurrencies have been constantly criticized for their huge energy consumption. Ethereum will now consume 99.9% less of it.

Enthusiasts believe that this merge will revolutionize the industry and allow Ethereum to overtake bitcoin in capitalization and value. However, many authoritative voices sound much calmer. For example, Bank of America (BofA) believes that this hard fork will not solve the problem of scalability or high fees but may lead to wider institutional adoption. The notable decrease in power consumption after The Merge will allow some investors to purchase this altcoin for the first time. “The ability to place ETH and generate higher quality returns (lower credit and liquidity risk) as a validator or through staking could also drive institutional adoption,” BofA admitted.

CoinShares Chief Strategy Officer Meltem Demirors looks more pessimistic. He believes that investors are ignoring the overall market situation in the hype around the Merge. And it’s not certain that this event will attract significant investment capital: “The reality is more prosaic,” says the CoinShares strategist. “At the global level, investors are concerned about rates and macro indicators. And I don't believe that significant amounts of new capital are likely to enter ETH.”

Time will tell how the market will eventually react to the Merge. In the meantime, instead of growth, there has been a fall. The trigger was the collapse of stock indices (S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq), which was provoked by US inflation data for August. Market participants decided that in such a situation the Fed would tighten its monetary policy more actively and raise interest rates. It is expected that the rate will rise by another 0.75% or even 1.0% next week. As a result, the dollar began to rise sharply, while risky assets, including bitcoin and Ethereum, fell. BTC fell to $19,341 by Friday evening, having lost 15% of its value over the week, ETH fell to $1,403, “shrinking” by 20%.

According to many experts, due to the hawkish position of the Fed and the ECB, the dynamics of the crypto market will remain negative at least until the end of the year. Against the backdrop of a reduction in market risk appetite, it will be difficult for bitcoin to stay above not only the psychologically important level of $20,000, but also above the June 18 low of $17,600. The latter threatens a further collapse.

A trader and analyst under the nickname filbfilb allowed in an interview with Cointelegraph the bitcoin to fall from current levels to $10,000-11,000. According to the specialist, bitcoin has become highly correlated with the US stock market, which is under enormous pressure due to the Fed's policies. The first cryptocurrency behaves as a risky asset, not as inflation insurance.

The expert noted that the upcoming winter will be a serious test for residents and politicians of the European Union, the consequences of which will have a negative impact on hodlers. The important thing will be how the countries of the Old World will cope with the energy crisis. According to him, everything is in the hands of diplomats who are able to prevent an emergency. Otherwise, risky assets will face a difficult future. "The dialogue between Russia and NATO is important: the sooner it starts, the higher the bitcoin low will be", filbfilb emphasized.

It should be noted here that the dependence of BTC on the US stock market weakened sharply in August and was at the annual low. However, it has begun to grow again and, according to the TradingView service, the correlation between bitcoin and the S&P 500 index has reached 0.59. The situation is similar with the Nasdaq. The correlation with it fell to 0.31 in August, and it rose to 0.62 in September. Analysts remind that the dependence of the crypto sphere on the stock market becomes strong after the correlation index rises above 0.5. When 0.7 is reached, the dependence becomes ideal.

However, despite the negative sentiments, there is still hope to see light at the end of the tunnel. The aforementioned filbfilb called bitcoin's Q1 2023 rally "obvious". The expert sees two reasons for this. The first is the seasonal factor. Downtrends end 1000 days after the halving (which will be early next year. The second is a change in sentiments to positive ones, based on game theory. With a probability of 2/3, the expert suggested that Europe will survive the coming winter. But if things go badly, it will increase the likelihood of a dialogue with Russia that will bring stability in the short term.

Cryptocurrency analyst with the nickname Rager does not believe in the decline of BTC to $12,000. He agreed that there are no guarantees when dealing with bitcoin. But, in his opinion, it is very likely that the asset is forming a bear market bottom above $19,000. Another analyst and trader with the nickname Rekt Capital believes that everything is moving towards the final phase of bitcoin's decline. “A significant part of the BTC bear market is behind us, and the entire bull market is ahead. The bottom of the bear market will be in November, December or the beginning of the Q1 2023.”

Rekt Capital noted that the data signal a possible rise in BTC by 200%, but there is one caveat: Bitcoin could fall even more before it goes up. “Of course, in the short term, the BTC price could fall by 5%-10%,” Rekt Capital writes. “But in the long term, a rally of more than 200% is very likely.”

Despite the depreciation of BTC, Michael Saylor, the founder of MicroStrategy, hopes for the best. His company intends to proceed with the acquisition of this asset. It will reportedly sell $500 million worth of its own shares. The proceeds from these sales will be used, among other things, to replenish the cryptocurrency stocks. Note that MicroStrategy is the largest corporate bitcoin holder. It owns 129,699 coins purchased at an average exchange rate of $30,664. The last purchase (480 BTC) was made in June.

At the time of writing (Friday evening, September 16), this MicroStrategy investment is deeply unprofitable, as BTC/USD is trading at $19,730 (ETH/USD - $1,435). The total capitalization of the crypto market has again fallen below the psychologically important level of $1 trillion and is $0.959 trillion ($1.042 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell 2 points in seven days from 22 to 20 and is still in the Extreme Fear zone.


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Old 21-09-2022, 14:59
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CryptoNews of the Week


- Analytical software provider MicroStrategy purchased an additional 301 BTC for $6 million. This is stated in the report submitted to the SEC. Michael Saylor, founder and ex-CEO of the company, said that purchases were made between August 2 and September 19 at an average price of $19,851 per BTC. MicroStrategy's previous investment in the first cryptocurrency took place in June: the firm purchased 480 BTC worth about $10 million.
MicroStrategy and its subsidiaries currently own 130,000 BTC, purchased at an average exchange rate of $30,638 per coin. Thus, unrealized losses on this investment exceed $1.5 billion.

- The monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve has led to the emergence of "tumors" like bitcoin. This was stated by the philosopher and author of the cult work “Black Swan” Nassim Taleb. “I believe we had 15 years […] of Disneyland which basically destroyed the economic structure. The Fed missed the mark by cutting interest rates too much. Zero interest for a long period of time damages the economy, bubbles are created, tumors like bitcoin are created,” he said, calling for a return to “normal economic life.”

- Willy Woo, a well-known bitcoin investor and analyst, believes that the BTC rate is being held back for political reasons. As he noted, it is currently theoretically possible to sell unlimited amounts of BTC due to futures contracts, although in reality the offer is limited to 21 million coins. “Futures markets can control the BTC rate,” the investor says. “CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) has set up a kind of bitcoin casino where you can play in US dollars. Wall Street hedge funds loved it. What are the current restrictions on the sale of bitcoin? None, because fiat has no restrictions.”
Woo believes that due to the structure of the futures market, major players can suppress BTC by exerting pressure in the form of selling an asset: “Bitcoin should not be killed. Just the ability to short BTC is enough to suppress the exchange rate. Bitcoin will not be able to make a global impact without a high price. The SEC's policy is now aimed at increasing liquidity and the predominance of futures by approving futures ETFs, while spot ETFs are being rejected. Everything has turned into a political game now.”

- Nicholas Merten, an analyst and founder of DataDash, believes that after BTC's unsuccessful attempt to stay above $19,000, it will fall to $14,000. In his opinion, this is influenced by both technical and macroeconomic factors.
Thus, BTC's 200-week moving average (WMA) has become a resistance level, not a support level. Bitcoin has almost always remained above this indicator throughout its existence, with rare breakdowns to the downside, marking the bottom of the cycle. Currently, the 200-week WMA is around $23,250, and bitcoin is struggling to rise above this level.
Merten concluded that BTC's recent exchange rate movement could signal the end of a 10-year bull market, and it can no longer be a leading asset compared to other commodities and stocks. According to the analyst, the next bottom of BTC could be around $14,000, which would mean an 80% correction from the all-time high, as in the case of previous bear markets. “$14,000 is a potential low at the moment. However, investors should consider an even sharper fall to $10,000.”
As for ethereum, Merten expects the asset to retest the $800-$1,000 range, although he doesn't rule out a move lower.
The decline is facilitated by the actions of the Fed, whose hawkish monetary policy caused the collapse of the cryptocurrency and stock markets in 2022. Despite the potential dangers to the economy, Merten does not expect the US Central Bank to stop raising rates until a confident victory over inflation.

- An analyst with the nickname DonAlt believes that BTC will update the lows of 2022 against the backdrop of weak stock market performance. He predicts a fall below the $18,000-20,000 range and a new cycle low. “It often happens with such ranges that after it is broken, an increase occurs. And now there is a good chance to break through the $18,000-20,000 range and then form a bullish momentum. The only question is how low bitcoin can go because it can easily go all the way to $15,000.” “My forecast is based on the S&P 500 and looks terrible,” DonAlt writes. “It looks like this index is in for a serious drop and a return to support at 3680.”

- The ongoing cryptocurrency bear market is unlike any before it as the Fed is running the ship this time around. Ethereum has fallen by about 15% since September 15, the completion date for The Merge update. Bitcoin has fallen by about 3% over the same period.
Ethereum’s price had roughly doubled from its yearly lows in June, by far outpacing bitcoin’s rise, ahead of the network upgrade. And Vijay Ayyar, vice president of the Luno crypto exchange, believes that the Merger had already been “factored into the price” of ETH, and “the actual event has become a “news selling” situation.
Traders are now moving investments from ethereum and other altcoins back to bitcoin, Ayyar said, “as bitcoin is expected to do better in a few months.” At the same time, the specialist believes that any “change in the macroeconomic environment in terms of inflation or unexpected interest rates” could lead BTC to fall below $18,000, and the coin will test levels up to $14,000.

- Investors are wondering if ethereum’s regulatory status could change after the Merge. The reason for concern was the words of Gary Gensler, Chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission. This official said last week that cryptocurrencies operating under the Proof-of-Stake model that applies to ETH can be classified as securities. Thus, these assets fall under the competence of the regulatory authorities. Gensler did not specifically name ethereum, but it is clear that in this case, the coin will attract close attention of the SEC.

- Takis Georgakopoulos, head of the payments division at JPMorgan investment bank, said that customer demand for cryptocurrencies has plummeted over the past six months. Most likely, the situation is related to the fall of the crypto market, which dragged on for several months. More than $2 trillion has disappeared from the market. Well-known companies working with digital assets are on the verge of bankruptcy. For example, Celsius and Voyager Digital filed for bankruptcy in July due to lack of liquidity.
Recall that JPMorgan strategists recommended at the end of August that investors focus not on cryptocurrencies, but on stocks and long-term bonds until the economic situation stabilizes.

- Bloomberg Senior Analyst Mike McGlone is convinced that market signals indicate that the value of bitcoin is growing. The expert compared the current fall in cryptocurrency quotes with the fall of the NASDAQ index in 2002 and subsequent stable growth over a long period of time. Mike McGlone argues that bitcoin will benefit from a "new chapter in the economy" in which speculation is driven by more than just how much money the Fed is printing. “The days when unsustainable companies could exist are over. Now, if a business doesn't work, it's sinking. And this is good, because now that the market has cleared after a wave of bankruptcies, it is open to solid business,” he said.

- Central Bank Governor Patrick Njoroge complained at a meeting of the Kenyan Parliament that even in his inner circle there are many people who are trying to convince him to convert reserves countries into bitcoins. The official called the idea insane. And he added that if the country takes the path of legalizing bitcoin, he will oppose it, even under the threat of going to jail. “Can cryptocurrencies be called the best means for making settlements and payments? Are cryptocurrencies safer than a bank account? The answer is no," the governor of the Kenyan Central Bank said.
It is worth noting here that many Central Banks like to keep their reserves in gold bars. And according to a survey conducted by Paxos among regular buyers of physical gold, almost a third of respondents consider BTC as the best alternative to the precious metal. So the idea under discussion might not be that crazy.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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Old 25-09-2022, 07:32
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Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 26 - 30, 2022


EUR/USD: In Search of a New Bottom

Last week, all the attention of the markets was focused on the FOMC meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which took place on September 21. The probability of another rate hike by 75 basis points (bp) had been estimated at 74%, and by 100 bps at 26%. The first forecast turned out to be correct: the rate was increased from 2.50% to 3.25%. But this was enough for the DXY dollar index to fly up and exceed 113.00 points, updating another 20-year high. Accordingly, as expected by the majority (75%) of experts, EUR/USD has renewed another 20-year low, reaching the bottom at 0.9667.

Russian President Vladimir Putin contributed to the weakening of the euro and the fall of the pair, announcing the mobilization of part of the military reserve to reinforce the Russian troops that invaded Ukraine. Mr. Putin also repeated the threat to use nuclear weapons, which further increased tension in the region. In addition, the heating season begins in Europe, and Russia continues to put pressure on it, using problems with energy supplies as a "weapon".

At the last meeting, the Fed gave the markets a clear hawkish signal about its next steps. It will continue its quantitative tightening (QT) policy, including reducing its balance sheet, and the interest rate will remain high in 2023. As for the current year, 2022, according to CME Group estimates, the probability that it will exceed 4.00% by the end of Q4 is almost 60%.

According to US Central bank officials, defeating inflation is now a priority. To implement it, the regulator is ready to accept the threat of a recession, including a drop in production and consumption, as well as problems in the labor market.

Investors fleeing risks on side with the dollar as a safe haven. US stock indices have been going down for the second week in a row. The S&P500 fell below its July lows, and the Dow Jones reached its June lowest values.

The last chord of the week for EUR/USD sounded at 0.9693. At the time of writing the review, Friday evening, September 23, the votes of the experts are distributed as follows. 55% of analysts say that the pair will continue to move south in the near future, while the remaining 45% expect a correction to the north. As for the trend indicators on D1, 100% is colored red, the picture is the same among the oscillators, while 25% signal that the pair is oversold.

The pair's immediate support is the September 23 low at 0.9667, with bears targeting 0.9500. The resistance levels and targets of the bulls look like this: 0.9700-0.9735, 0.9800-0.9825, 0.9900, the immediate task is to return to the range of 0.9950-1.0020, the next target area is 1.0130-1.0200.

We are in for a lot of macro-economic statistics this week. The week will be opened by data on GDP (Q3) and IFO business climate in Germany, which will be released on Monday September 26. Data from the US consumer market will be received the next day, and the US GDP (Q2) will become known on Thursday, September 29. Statistics on sales and the labor market in Germany, as well as on the consumer markets of the Eurozone (CPI) and the United States, will be published in turn on the last day of the five-day period and the month, September 30. In addition, ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech this week on September 26, and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak on September 27.

GBP/USD: Back to the Past: Return to 1985

The Bank of England raised the pound rate by 50 bp up to 2.25% the day after the Fed meeting, on Thursday September 22. However, as expected, this did not help the British currency much. More precisely, given the current macroeconomic situation, it did not help at all. In just 10 days, from September 13 to 23, GBP/USD flew about 900 points, falling to its lowest level in 37 years. The bottom was found on Friday at 1.0838, which was in line with 1985 levels.

Disappointing economic data from the United Kingdom continues to weigh heavily on the pound. Business activity in the private sector continued to fall. The Preliminary Composite PMI, with a forecast of 49.0 points, actually fell from 49.6 to 48.4 over the month. In addition, a survey by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), which speaks on behalf of 190,000 businesses, showed that the balance of retail sales fell to -20 in September from +37 in August.

According to the Bank of England's own forecasts, the country is close to a deep recession. And according to the estimates of the British Chamber of Commerce (BCC), the recession is already in full swing, and inflation will reach 14% by the end of the year. Next year also does not bode well: according to strategists at Goldman Sachs, inflation could reach 22% by the end of 2023.

To combat it, the Bank of England has moved to more aggressive rate hikes. But the tightening of monetary policy takes place simultaneously with an increase in budget spending. Moreover, the government will most likely not have enough of its own funds to pay businesses and households the announced partial compensation of electricity bills. Therefore, it will have to take large loans, which will not benefit the national currency either. (We have already reported that British energy regulator Ofgem announced that average annual bills will rise by 80% from October, and the number of households in fuel poverty could reach 12 million people in January).

The pair closed last week at 1.0867. But the range 1.0800-1.0838 is unlikely to become a strong enough support. Having broken it, the bears will rush to the historical low of 1985 of 1.0520, to which there are only about 300 points left. Given the pace of the fall of the pair, it can reach this goal in one to two weeks. Of course, a correction is not ruled out due to the oversold pound. If the pair turns north, it will meet resistance in the zones and at the levels of 1.1000-1.1020, 1.1100, 1.1215, 1.1350, 1.1475, 1.1535, 1.1600, 1.1650, 1.1710-1.1740. The return of the pair to the heights around 1.1800-1.2000 seems unlikely in the coming weeks.

Experts' forecast for the coming week looks quite unique: all 100% side with the British currency. As for the indicators on D1, all 100% point exactly in the opposite direction. However, 50% of the oscillators are in the deep oversold zone, which confirms experts' expectations regarding a correction to the north.

The event calendar can mark Friday, September 30, when UK GDP (Q2) data will be released.

continued below...
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Old 25-09-2022, 07:35
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USD/JPY: Miracle from the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan



As we predicted, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) remained true to itself at its meeting on September 22 and kept its interest rate at a negative, ultra-dove level of -0.1%. However, we still have to admit our mistake. We wrote last week that the Japanese financial authorities should not expect a miracle. But a miracle did happen. As USD/JPY crept up to 146.00, the Treasury's seemingly steely nerves snapped and it ordered the BOJ to intervene in support of the yen.

As a result, the pair avalanched 550 pips, showing the most volatility since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. Then the shock passed, the situation calmed down a bit, and the pair returned to the values of the beginning of the working week, ending it at the level of 143.30.

This pullback confirms some analysts' view that the yen's strength is unlikely to be long-term and that USD/JPY will return to storm the 146.00 high again. “In the absence of major changes in fundamentals or (unlikely) concerted action against the US dollar, the chances of a sustained rebound in the Japanese yen are limited,” Scotiabank macro strategists say. “The key issue here, of course, is the divergence in monetary policy settings between the US and Japan, which has caused the Japanese yen to plummet since the Fed first began raising interest rates in earnest in the spring.”

Scotiabank believes that markets are likely to retest the 146.00 level to test the resolve of the Bank of Japan. And the Japanese Central Bank will have to spend billions of USD to protect this level. Moreover, it may even ask the ECB, the Bank of England and the Fed to act as their agent outside of business hours in Tokyo. However, it is likely that the Bank of Japan will try to fight off the strong dollar alone.

Experts' median forecast for the near future is as follows. 45% of experts side with the bulls, 45% have taken the opposite position, the remaining 10% remain neutral. Oscillators on D1 have 40% on the green side, 10% on the red side, and 50% are colored neutral gray. Among the trend indicators, the ratio is 9 to 1 in favor of the green ones.

The nearest resistance for the pair, as in the last two weeks, is 143.75. The objectives of bulls No. 1 and No. 2 are to gain a foothold above 145.00 and then storm the height of 146.00. This is followed by 146.78, the level reached before the joint actions of Japan and the US to support the yen in 1998. Supports for the pair are located at the levels and in the zones 143.00, 142.60, 142.00-142.20, 140.60, 140.00, 138.35-139.05, 137.50, 135.60-136.00, 134.40, 132.80, 131.70.

No important statistics on the state of the Japanese economy are expected to be released this week. However, there are two events that are of particular interest in the light of the decision to intervene. A press conference by BOJ Chairman Haruhiko Kuroda is scheduled for Monday, September 26, and the report on the last meeting of the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy Committee will be published on Wednesday, September 28. In both cases, the market will try to understand how serious the regulator is about supporting its national currency.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Bearish Sentiment Persists

So is bitcoin digital gold after all? According to a survey conducted by Paxos among regular buyers of physical gold, almost a third of respondents consider BTC as the best alternative to the precious metal. However, judging by how both of these assets have been behaving lately, the best alternative for both of them is the US dollar. Physical gold peaked at $2,070 on March 08, 2022, after which it went down, having lost about 20% of its value so far. As for its digital counterpart, the all-time high of $67,273 occurred on November 10, 2021, and the loss is now approximately 71%. If we compare these figures, it turns out that XAU/USD was falling by 0.10% daily, while BTC/USD was falling twice as fast, by 0.22% per day. Draw your own conclusions. We only note that it is not gold and bitcoin that are to blame for what is happening, but the gaining strength of the dollar, which is growing along with the increase in the interest rate of the US Federal Reserve. So, another rate hike led to a fall in cryptocurrency quotes last week. Gold, on the other hand, although made a couple of jumps, returned to its previous price this time. After all, unlike BTC, it is a protective asset, not a risky one. Although, it is also receding step by step under the pressure of the American currency.

When it comes to precious metals, few people use derogatory epithets. Even though their price is falling as well. But in relation to cryptocurrencies, as much as you like. So, for example, the philosopher and author of the cult work "The Black Swan" Nassim Taleb called bitcoin a "tumor" that appeared due to the wrong policy of the Fed. “I believe we had 15 years […] of Disneyland which basically destroyed the economic structure. The Fed missed the mark by cutting interest rates too much. Zero interest for a long period of time damages the economy, bubbles are created, tumors like bitcoin are created,” he said, calling for a return to “normal economic life.”

Well-known bitcoin investor and analyst Willy Woo agrees that it is the US government that is now running the “ship”. True, on the contrary, he would like this “tumor” to be larger, but its growth is held back for political reasons. As he noted, it is currently theoretically possible to sell unlimited amounts of BTC due to futures contracts, although in reality the offer is limited to 21 million coins. “Futures markets can control the BTC rate,” the investor says. “CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) has set up a kind of bitcoin casino where you can play in US dollars. Wall Street hedge funds loved it. What are the current restrictions on the sale of bitcoin? None, because fiat has no restrictions.”

Willy Woo believes that due to the structure of the futures market, major players can suppress BTC by exerting pressure in the form of selling an asset: “Bitcoin should not be killed. Just the ability to short BTC is enough to suppress the exchange rate. Bitcoin will not be able to make a global impact without a high price. The SEC's policy is now aimed at increasing liquidity and the predominance of futures by approving futures ETFs, while spot ETFs are being rejected. Everything has turned into a political game now,” the investor sighs sadly.

DataDash analyst and founder Nicholas Merten expects the US Central bank to continue raising interest rates until it achieves a solid victory over inflation. And this, in turn, will push the quotes of digital assets further down. According to Merten, this is influenced not only by macroeconomic, but also by technical factors.

Thus, BTC's 200-week moving average (WMA) has become a resistance level, not a support level. Bitcoin has almost always remained above this indicator throughout its existence, with rare breakdowns to the downside, marking the bottom of the cycle. Currently, the 200-week WMA is around $23,250, and bitcoin is failing to rise above this level.

Merten concluded that BTC's recent exchange rate movement could signal the end of a 10-year bull market, and it can no longer be a leading asset compared to other commodities and stocks. According to the analyst, the next bottom of BTC could be around $14,000, which would mean an 80% correction from the all-time high, as in the case of previous bear markets. “$14,000 is a potential low at the moment. However, investors should consider an even sharper fall to $10,000.”

An analyst with the nickname DonAlt agrees with Merten, he believes that BTC will update the 2022 lows amid weak stock market performance. DonAlt predicts the coin will fall below the $18,000-20,000 range and form a new cycle low. “It often happens with such ranges that after it is broken, an increase occurs. And now there is a good chance to break through the $18,000-20,000 range and then form a bullish momentum. The only question is how low bitcoin can go because it can easily go all the way to $15,000.” “My forecast is based on the S&P 500 and looks terrible,” DonAlt writes. “It looks like this index is in for a big drop.”

We paid a lot of attention to the main competitor of bitcoin, ethereum, in the previous review. This was due to a very important event: the global update The Merge took place in the ETH network on September 15, including the transition of the altcoin from the Proof-of-Work protocol to Proof-of-Stake (PoS). Ethereum has fallen by about 20% since then. And we have repeatedly warned about this possibility, citing the opinions of various experts.

The coin’s price had roughly doubled from its yearly lows in June, by far outpacing bitcoin’s rise, ahead of the network upgrade. And Vijay Ayyar, vice president of the Luno crypto exchange, believes that the Merger had already been “factored into the price” of ETH, and “the actual event has become a “news selling” situation. According to Ayyar, traders are now moving investments from ethereum and other altcoins back to bitcoin, Ayyar said, “as bitcoin is expected to do better in a few months.” At the same time, the specialist believes that any “change in the macroeconomic environment in terms of inflation or unexpected interest rates” could lead BTC to fall below $18,000, and the coin will test levels up to $14,000.

However, inflation and rising rates are not the only factors that may affect the quotes of digital assets. So now investors are wondering if ethereum's regulatory status could change after the Merge. The reason for concern was the words of Gary Gensler, Chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission. This official said last week that cryptocurrencies operating under the Proof-of-Stake model that applies to ETH can be classified as securities. Thus, these assets fall under the competence of the regulatory authorities. Gensler did not specifically name ethereum, but it is clear that in this case the coin will attract the close attention of the SEC, and it is unknown how this may end. For example, DataDash's Nicholas Merten expects the asset to retest the $800-$1,000 range, although he doesn't rule out a move lower.

At the time of this writing (Friday evening, September 23), bitcoin and ethereum have partially recouped the fall caused by the Fed's decision. BTC/USDis trading at $18,900 ( ETH/USD is $1,320). The total capitalization of the crypto market is $0.929 trillion ($0.959 trillion a week ago). Like seven days ago, Crypto Fear & Greed Index is 20 points and is still in the Extreme Fear zone.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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