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  #481  
Old 11-11-2020, 16:54
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CryptoNews


- Binance cryptocurrency exchange has started blocking the accounts of users from the United States. There are no official explanations for these actions so far. The emails that users received after being blocked say they need to withdraw all the funds from their accounts within 90 days.
According to The Block, previously blocking was carried out only if the user indicated that he or she was a US citizen during the registration process. Now the exchange finds them by IP addresses. For some clients, the administration offers to switch to the Binance US platform or its analogues, since they are not subject to the prohibitions of American law.

- The number of cryptocurrency ATMs has increased by 80% in 2020 compared to their number in 2019. Currently, there are about 11 thousand such devices in the world. An average of 23 new ATMs are installed every day.
According to experts, most often such ATMs are installed by small startups that are trying to make money on the exchange of cryptocurrency for fiat. The devices are installed in large shopping centers mainly in countries where the circulation of digital assets is allowed at the state level. The CoinATMRadar portal has a map of the location of cryptomats around the world. Judging by it, most of the devices are located in the United States and Canada. You can not only get fiat in them, but also buy the cryptocurrencies themselves, at the exchange value. It is not uncommon for the user to choose a platform with an up-to-date rate.

- Many representatives of the cryptosphere are happy with the fact that Joe Biden has most likely won the US presidential election. The crypto community believes that, unlike Donald Trump and his Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, Biden will be more liberal about digital currencies and the blockchain industry in general.
According to Mike Novogratz, CEO of crypto trading bank Galaxy Digital, the new administration will accelerate the launch of the incentive program. In this situation, a further increase in investor interest in bitcoin is inevitable, as the dollar will become less attractive amid inflation.

- Popular blogger PlanB remains true to his forecast that the price of the first cryptocurrency will rise to $100 - $288 thousand by December 2021, which is consistent with the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model on which his expectations are based.
The expert notes that during periods of market corrections, he observes how the algorithms of bitcoin whales pick up hundreds of portions of 0.01 BTC from "weak hands". Later these coins “disappear” in “deep” cold vaults.
According to the S2F model, this move of bitcoins to wallets for long-term storage leads to a reduction in their sales. This is especially true for the period after the halving, which leads to a supply shock and provokes a bull market for the next 18-20 months. This was the case for the first and second halving of miner awards in 2012 and 2016. According to PlanB, the dynamics of bitcoin after the third halving in May 2020 is developing like clockwork, which once again confirms he is right.

- Former associate of George Soros in the Quantum fund, billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller, said in an interview with CNBC that he had invested part of the capital under his management in the first cryptocurrency. He admitted that bitcoin may be a better instrument for preserving value than gold.
Druckenmiller has noted the growing stabilization of the first cryptocurrency since its launch 13 years ago. “I'm partly a dinosaur, but I've become better aware that bitcoin can become an asset class that will be interesting from the standpoint of a capital preservation tool,” the investor has explained.
In the same interview, the billionaire predicted a fall in the US dollar over the next three to four years.

- The Taiwanese laptop manufacturer Compal Electronics has fallen victim to the DoppelPaymer ransomware virus. For decrypting the files, the hackers demanded 1,100 BTC (almost $17 million at the time of writing), according to Bleeping Computer.
DoppelPaymer is distributed on Windows networks and is known for attacks on corporate networks by gaining access to administrator rights. According to experts from the information security company Group-IB, this virus entered the top three most aggressive and greedy ransomware of 2019.

- Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone believes that the bitcoin rate will rise to at least $20 thousand in 2021 and renew its all-time high. This is not McGlone's first positive prediction. In early October, he suggested that the first cryptocurrency would rise in price to $100,000 by 2025 and gave several reasons for this. These include the monetary policy of the states, which leads to the depreciation of fiat currencies.
The expert added that the gold will rise in price next year on the same factors as BTC. Its value could rise to $2k an ounce.

- As the publication Unfolded notes, the dependence of Ethereum on bitcoin has been weakening since the end of October. The correlation of the two largest cryptocurrencies decreases amid preparation for the release of the updated version of the Ethereum network (ETH 2.0). It is this factor that has accelerated the separation of the main altcoin from BTC.
Now the correlation is at its lowest level since early 2018. If Ethereum rises in price to $500 in December against the background of weakening bitcoin (now ETH is holding at $460), then it will be able to finally "untie" from its "big brother".

- The market has marked consolidation at two addresses of bitcoins, which have not been in motion for 10 years. According to the data from blockchain.com, the aggregation of coins worth more than $15 million originated from 20 different addresses. Each of them transferred 50 BTC. Until the first halving in 2012, this was the amount miners received as a reward for a successfully mined block.
The situation with early bitcoins of the time of Satoshi Nakamoto always attracts increased attention of the crypto community. Everyone is primarily interested in whether they are really part of the legacy of Satoshi himself. So, more recently, the crypto community enthusiastically discussed the movement of bitcoins worth over $1 billion on the night of the US presidential election. The most fantastic versions were put forward, but later it turned out that this US Department of Justice confiscated almost 70,000 BTC from the purse associated with the Silk Road darkmarket.


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  #482  
Old 15-11-2020, 07:16
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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 16 - 20, 2020


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. Last week, we started talking about complete uncertainty in the market, when investors just shrug their shoulders, not knowing what to expect in the near future. Yes, Joe Biden has won the presidential election. It seems to have won. Since Donald Trump's team has already collected a lot of facts about the violations and falsifications and is going to challenge the election results in court. For the time being, a number of state bodies, including even the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), refused to support the change of president. The distribution of seats in the US Senate remains questionable, and the priorities in the country's policy, including fiscal measures and programs to support the economy, depend on this.
It is completely unclear in which direction and at what speed the situation with the coronavirus pandemic will develop as well. Will there be a new lockdown and of what scale? The daily number of new cases of COVID-19 infection has exceeded 100 thousand in the United States for almost a week and a half already, which requires the adoption of new restrictions at least in some states. And this is a reduction in production, a decrease in the number of jobs and, as a result, a fall in stock indices.
In general, there are still much more questions than answers. And that is precisely why the forecast that we gave last week turned out to be absolutely correct. recall that the opinions of experts were equally divided then: one third voted for the growth of the EUR/USD pair, one third - for its fall, and one third took a neutral position. The nearest levels were named: support - 1.1760, resistance - 1.1965. The EUR/USD pair spent the whole week around these boundaries, fluctuating in the range from 1.1745 to 1.1920, and eventually returned to the Pivot Point zone, along which it has been moving for 16 consecutive weeks. The final chord sounded at 1.1830;

- GBP/USD. Let us start right away with the results of the week - the long-awaited breakthrough did not happen in the Brexit negotiations. And the storms, when the pound, following the forecasts of 70% of experts, first rushed to the north, reaching a height of 1.3315, and then turned southward, falling by 210 points to 1.3105, ended in complete calm in the middle of this range - near the horizon 1.3200;

- USD/JPY. We can state looking at the chart of this pair that those 30% of experts who had sided with the bulls and voted for the return of USD to the 104.00-105.00 zone were right. Following the yield on long-term American securities, the pair even tried twice to break through the resistance at 105.65, but failed, and eventually completed the five-day period at 104.60, climbing 130 points;

- cryptocurrencies. Let's start with the crime news, which did not differ much last week from what had happened before. For example, hackers have reminded of themselves again. This time, Taiwanese laptop maker Compal Electronics fell victim to the ransomware DoppelPaymer. The hackers demanded 1,100 BTC (almost $17 million at the time of writing) for decrypting the files. According to information security experts from Group-IB, DoppelPaymer spreads on Windows networks, is known for attacks on corporate networks by gaining access to administrator rights and was among the three most aggressive and greedy ransomware of 2019.
One more piece of news. The intrigue with the mysterious transfer of bitcoins worth over $1 billion on the night of the US presidential election ended. The most fantastic versions had been put forward, but it turned out later that it was US Department of Justice that had confiscated almost 70,000 BTC from the wallet associated with the Silk Road darkmarket.
Now some statistics. The number of cryptocurrency ATMs has increased by 80% in 2020 compared to their number in 2019. An average of 23 new ATMs are installed every day. Currently, there are about 11 thousand of them in the world, and most of them are located in the United States and Canada. According to experts, most often such ATMs are installed by small startups that are trying to make money on the exchange of cryptocurrency for fiat.
Last week, exchanging bitcoins for dollars became even more profitable, since, as predicted by most experts, the BTC/USD pair crossed the $16,000 mark. The main cryptocurrency rose to a height of $16,460 at its peak, and it happened on Friday 13 - the so-called "day of trouble", which got its name from numerous superstitions and myths and was immortalized in the famous American horror film.
However, as far as Bitcoin is concerned, this day, on the contrary, has delighted many holders of the reference cryptocurrency. Some began to take profits, hoping then to replenish their BTC wallets on a rollback. And those who were not going to sell their coins just got another dose of optimism in anticipating further growth in their capital.
If you look at the chart of the total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market for the last week, you can clearly see that when the BTC/USD quotes fell, active buying of coins began again. This happened both with the price falling to $14,390 on November 07, and the next pullback two days later. As a result, step by step, the pair rose higher and higher, which indicates an overall positive sentiment, and which allowed the total capitalization, as a result, to grow in seven days from $447 billion to $465 billion.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index was in the same place as a week ago by the evening of Friday, November 13 - at 90, in a zone that the developers of the index designated as "Extreme Greed". This value corresponds to the BTC/USD pair being strongly overbought and portends its correction. Recall that in a similar situation on November 07, the pair lost about 8%. True, it then took less than a day to restore the quotes to the previous values.
As for ethereum, as the Unfolded notes, its dependence on bitcoin has been weakening since the end of October. The correlation of the two largest cryptocurrencies decreases amid preparation for the release of the updated version of the ETH 2.0 network. It is this factor that has accelerated the separation of the main altcoin from BTC. Now the correlation is at its lowest level since early 2018. If ethereum rises in price to $500 in December against the background of weakening bitcoin (now ETH is holding at $460), then it will be able to finally "untie" from its "big brother".


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  #483  
Old 15-11-2020, 07:18
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As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. According to 90% of 65 Wall Street Journal experts, uncertainty in financial markets should decrease with clarity regarding the outcome of the US presidential election and news about the COVID-19 vaccine. Moreover, the head of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, believes that much has become clearer to her personally, thanks to Joe Biden's victory, the expected success in the Brexit negotiations and vaccine development. As a result, the more clarity, the less desire to buy up dollars, and the greater the cravings for riskier assets. And this should lead to the growth of the EUR/USD pair.
But Ms. Lagarde's view is not yet the view of the whole market. The second wave of the pandemic is only gaining momentum. How the United States will behave under Biden's presidency is also unknown. So, for example, 58% of Wall Street Journal experts expect that the size of the next economic aid package will be $1-2 trillion, 29% vote for an amount less than $1 trillion, and the remaining 13% call the figure of $2-3 trillion The continuation and scope of the trade and economic war between Washington and Beijing and many other factors remain in question.
Unlike fundamental, technical analysis doesn't know what presidential elections, trade wars or vaccinations are. That is why, despite the uncertainty prevailing in the market, the indicator readings now look much more specific. Thus, 100% of the trend indicators and 75% of the oscillators on H4 and D1 are painted green. They are opposed by only 25% of the oscillators signaling that the pair is overbought.
But as for analysts, although moods similar to Christine Lagarde's expectations prevail, it is still difficult to call them dominant. The bulls have very little priority: 50% of the experts side with them. Bears have 40% of supporters. The remaining 10% have taken a neutral position.
The narrowest trading range for the pair is limited by the channel 1.1740-1.1845, the next one with the increase in volatility is 1.1700-1.1900, and finally, the maximum swing of fluctuations, since August, is 1.1600-1.2000.
Among the most important economic events of the coming week, the publication of macro-statistics on the US consumer market on Tuesday, November 17 should be noted;

- GBP/USD. Bank of England Governor Speaks Marathon continues, albeit with less tension¬ - if last week Andrew Bailey spoke as many as three times, then for the next one only one of his speeches is scheduled, on Tuesday, November 17th. It is possible to predict with a high degree of probability that the purpose of such public activity of the banker is to convince the government and the public that the regulator has its finger on the pulse and that, despite the difficulties, one should look to the future with optimism.
However, the financier's optimism about the prospects of the British currency is shared by only trend indicators on H4 and D1 and oscillators on H4. But on D1, there is already complete turmoil among the oscillators - one third is colored green, one third is red and one third is neutral gray. This color scheme almost coincides with the forecasts of analysts, among whom 30% are in favor of the growth of the pair, 25% are in favor of its fall, and another 45% take a neutral position. As for the graphical analysis on D1, it definitely leans towards the strengthening of the dollar and the fall of the pound. The supports are 1.3100 and 1.3055, the goal is to return the pair to the echelon 1.2850-1.3000. Resistance levels are 1.3315 and 1.3285.

- USD/JPY. It is well known that the dynamics of this pair is greatly influenced by the yield of US securities - where they are, there it is. After falling to the horizon 103.15, the reversal of this pair and the rise to the level of 105.65 looks very impressive. But the result of the week turned out to be not so bright at all, because, after the rise, another fall followed, as a result of which the yen managed to win back more than 40% of its losses.
If you look at the D1 chart, the USD/JPY pair is still within the downlink, which began in the last week of March 2020. And whether it can reverse this trend depends largely on what happens to the real, rather than nominal, yield of 10-year US bonds. And it depends on the policy of the Fed, which, in turn, depends on who will soon be in the White House and what kind of strength awaits us in the Senate of this country.
In the meantime, 60% of analysts, supported by 90% of trend indicators and 70% of oscillators on both timeframes, believe that the pair will keep within the descending channel and will try to test support in the 103.00 zone again. Supports are at 104.35 and 104.00 levels. According to an alternative point of view, the pair is expected to rise first to resistance in the 105.00 zone, and then to a height of 105.65. The next goal is 100 points higher;

- cryptocurrencies. We have already written that the COVID-19 pandemic has become a winning card for bitcoin. The more money Central Banks print, the more investors begin to acquire bitcoin as a protective asset. But this card is not the only one. Many representatives of the crypto sphere were encouraged by the results of the US presidential election, where Joe Biden may have won. The crypto community believes that, unlike Donald Trump and his Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, Biden will be more liberal about digital currencies and the blockchain industry in general. However, the issue of Biden's reigning in the White House has not yet been resolved, as Trump intends to prove numerous irregularities during the vote in the courts. So this “Big Game” has not yet ruled out big surprises.
Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone believes that the bitcoin rate will rise to at least $20 thousand in 2021 and renew its all-time high. This is not McGlone's first positive prediction. In early October, he suggested that the first cryptocurrency would rise in price to $100,000 by 2025 and gave several reasons for this. These include the monetary policy of the states, which leads to the depreciation of fiat currencies.
Former associate of George Soros in the Quantum fund billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller agrees with McGlone, he also expects the dollar to fall on the horizon of three to four years. He revealed in an interview with CNBC that he invested some of the capital in the first cryptocurrency, while admitting that bitcoin may be a better tool for preserving value than gold.
A sharper growth curve for BTC/USD is predicted by a popular blogger under the nickname PlanB. So, if according to Mike McGlone's forecasts, the first cryptocurrency will reach $100 thousand only by 2025, PlanB expects to see it at this height by December 2021. The expert notes that during periods of market corrections, he observes how the algorithms of bitcoin whales pick up hundreds of portions of 0.01 BTC from "weak hands". Later these coins “disappear” in “deep” cold vaults. According to the S2F model, this move of bitcoins to wallets for long-term storage leads to a reduction in their sales. This is especially true for the period after the halving, which leads to a supply shock and provokes a bull market for the next 18-20 months. This was the case for the first and second halving of miner awards in 2012 and 2016. According to PlanB, the dynamics of bitcoin after the third halving in May 2020 is developing like clockwork, which once again confirms he is right.
At the moment, the BTC/USD pair has reached the highs of January 2018. But mass profit-taking is holding back greed in anticipation of its growth to at least $20,000. Especially since there are no serious levels of resistance along the way. However, global factors, such as Trump's victory or mass vaccination against COVID-19, as well as Chinese miners who have relaunched their equipment and need cash money to cover capital expenditures and operating expenses, may reverse the trend.
60% of experts expect the BTC/USD pair to be fixed above the $17,000 level by the end of November. 20% give a neutral forecast, and the remaining 20% expect the pair to fall to the $14,000-15,000 zone.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  #484  
Old 18-11-2020, 15:11
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CryptoNews


- Hackers attacked large companies in Israel, traditionally demanding a ransom in bitcoins to regain access to confidential information. The new ransomware virus was named Pay2Key. It affects corporate programs through which reports on financial transactions and other data are transmitted. According to IT company CheckPoint, if the conditions set by the criminals are not met, they usually simply upload the databases to the darknet or to specialized resources on the Web, where anyone can view the materials or buy them.

- Mike Novogratz's Galaxy Digital cryptocurrency bank, in collaboration with investment company CI Global Asset Management, will launch a new bitcoin fund in Canada. The investment company will act as its manager, and the cryptobank will act as co-manager. The latter will carry out all Bitcoin transactions on behalf of the fund. The asset value will be based on the Bloomberg CFIX Bitcoin Index. The partners have already announced preparations for the IPO, as part of the initiative. The offer consists of $10 Class A and F shares.

- Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone is confident that the capitalization of the first cryptocurrency will reach $1 trillion in the second half of next year. However, first the price of bitcoin needs to overcome the main obstacle: the all-time high reached in December 2017 at around $20,089. Almost three years have passed since then, during which time the price managed to drop to $3,126, and then grow fivefold, reaching $18,000 at the moment.
“$20,000 is the main obstacle for bitcoin to capitalize at $1 trillion,” McGlone wrote. - The digital version of gold, but with a more limited supply and a history of adding zeros, appears to be in the early stages of pricing and may simply continue to grow in 2021. Its mass acceptance is growing."

- Actress Maisie Williams, who portrays Arya Stark in Game of Thrones, asked her Twitter followers if she should invest in Bitcoin. At the time of this writing, 650,369 users expressed their opinion, of which 50.7% answered in the affirmative, 49.3% - in the negative.
Comments from representatives of the cryptocurrency community appeared under the post. For example, the founder of the investment company Grayscale, Barry Silbert, recommended Williams to get acquainted with his firm. In the message, he stressed that "Game of Thrones" featured a "greyscale" in keeping with the name of his company, Greyscale.

- Thanks to consolidation in the status of digital gold, the rate of the first cryptocurrency can reach $318,000 by the end of 2021. This forecast was presented by Tom Fitzpatrick, Managing Director of one of the largest banks in the world, Citibank. He believes that the bitcoin market is now reminiscent of the 1970s, when dollar inflation led to increased demand for gold. In 1971, US President Richard Nixon carried out a series of reforms, abandoning the Bretton Woods system and pegging the dollar to gold. As a result, the price of this precious metal showed a steady increase over the next 50 years.
In his new report, Bitcoin: Gold for the 21st Century, Fitzpatrick writes: "Bitcoin moved in the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, when new changes in the monetary regime took place and we dropped to zero interest rates." He notes that currently, financial stimulus measures against the backdrop of the coronavirus pandemic are leading to the formation of conditions similar to the 1970s.

- The founder of the Galaxy Digital cryptobank Mike Novogratz admitted that he once bought his first 500,000 ETH at the rate of $0.99 from Vitalik Buterin. According to the billionaire, the Ethereum project team decided that it would be nice for the community to have a buyer from Wall Street.
As for bitcoin, Novogratz learned about it in 2012 and purchased the first 30,001 BTC at $95 per coin. When asked why such a strange amount, the billionaire replied that at that moment the head of the hedge fund Pantera Capital Dan Morehead bought 30,000 coins, and "then we decided that we would buy 30,001 because we could not afford to have more."
Novogratz also admitted that he planned to sell bitcoin at $1,000 to buy a plane, but he was talked out of it by partner Pete Briger.

- New US Senator Cynthia Lummis plans to bring the discussion of the first cryptocurrency to the national level. The politician said this in an interview with ABC News channel. “21 million bitcoins will be mined and that's it, this is a limited emission. Therefore, I am confident that it will become an important player as a store of value over time,” said Lummis.

- The popular American businessman Robert Kiyosaki agrees with the senator. “Bitcoin's rise has outpaced gold and silver,” he wrote. - What does it mean? This means that you need to buy as much bitcoin and precious metal as you can and don't put it off. The train is already leaving. The dollar is dying. When the dollar falls, the price doesn't matter anymore. What matters is how much gold, silver and bitcoins you have.”
It is curious that in addition to his bestseller "Rich Dad Poor Dad," Kiyosaki wrote two more books in collaboration with US President Donald Trump.

- The price of bitcoin broke through the level of $18,000 with a market capitalization of $338 billion. BTC has grown by more than 50% over the past month as its net purchases on crypto exchanges have far exceeded those of miners. Citing data from analyst firm Glassnode, cryptanalyst Will Wu pointed out that hourly purchases of BTC on exchanges are almost 20 times higher than the amounts attributed to miner sales. Another specialist, Lark Davis, also confirmed that 145,000 bitcoins left the exchanges in the last month, and only 27,000 BTC were mined during this time.


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  #485  
Old 22-11-2020, 13:01
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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 23 - 27, 2020


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. Last week, we talked again about complete uncertainty in the market, when investors just shrug their shoulders, not knowing what to expect in the near future. And then the forecast was appropriate: 50% of the experts sided with the bulls, 40% supported the bears, and the remaining 10% took a neutral position. And it turned out to be the most correct: the pair moved in a very narrow range of 1.1815-1.1890 for the whole week and completed the five-day period in its central part, at the level of 1.1858.
The reason for this is the same uncertainty caused by the unclear balance of power after the US election and, as you might guess, by the situation with the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.
In addition to the fact that President Donald Trump has already reached the Supreme Court, where he is going to challenge the election results and where the Republicans have strong enough positions, there is now another conflict in the United States, between Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin and the Federal Reserve System.
Mnuchin has said that emergency lending programs have already achieved their goals and that they should be completed this year. The Fed would like to see all of these programs designed to support the economy during the pandemic continue to work in full. 12 of the 13 credit lines through which the Fed is pumping trillions of cheap dollars into the economy are due to close on December 31, and if that happens, the stock market will be under intense pressure. Which will trigger a sell-off in stocks and a rise in the dollar as a haven currency.
According to the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell, the time to complete emergency lending programs will not come soon. He is supported in this by the International Monetary Fund, which believes that the real state of the economy leaves much to be desired and the cessation of funding will lead to another collapse of world GDP.
It was reported on Thursday, November 19 that Republican Majority Leader in the US Senate, Mitch McConnell, seemed to be ready to resume negotiations on a new stimulus package. However, no one can say yet how these negotiations will end.
The situation with measures to counter the spread of COVID-19 also remains unclear. State authorities are trying to prevent a new round of the epidemic. New York has already decided to close schools, and the stock market went down on Thursday on the announcement of Mayor Bill de Blasio about the possible introduction of a ban on eating in public catering establishments. And although in Europe the situation with the pandemic is also quite difficult, it is still better than in the United States: thanks to the restrictive measures adopted in the EU, the virus is spreading more slowly here. But making any predictions is a thankless job in this case as well;

- GBP/USD. At the end of the week, the pound, albeit slightly, but grew up, having risen at the maximum from 1.3200 to 1.3310. And this despite the fact that negotiations on Brexit conditions between the EU and the UK were suspended on Thursday due to the infection of one of the members of the European delegation with the coronavirus. The pound was supported by the information about the resumption of negotiations between the Democrats and the US Republicans on fiscal stimulus, which we described above. Another support was the published data on retail sales in the UK, which increased by 1.2% in October. As a result, the pair closed the trading session closer to two-week highs, at 1.3290;

- USD/JPY. While the economies of the US and the EU are only trying to fight off another coronavirus attack, Japan is showing impressive success. GDP of this country for the third quarter increased to plus 5.0%. And this despite the fact that a quarter earlier it was minus 8.2%. Such indicators allow the yen to maintain its status as a major haven currency, making it more attractive, compared to the US dollar.
As a result, the forecast, which was given by 60% of analysts, supported by 90% of trend indicators and 70% of oscillators, was quite accurate. Recall that they felt that the pair would be kept within the downstream channel and would once again try to test the support in the 103.00 zone. True, the pair did not reach the target horizon and found a local low at 103.65. But its aspiration to the south is beyond doubt: having started the five-day week at 104.60, it finished it at 103.80;

- cryptocurrencies. The forecast we gave the previous week suggested that the BTC/USD pair should consolidate above the $17,000 level by the end of November. At the same time, it was noted that it is hardly worth waiting for a massive profit-taking in the near future, as it will be restrained by greed in anticipation of the price growth at least to $20,000. Especially since there are no serious levels of resistance along the way.
The reality has surpassed forecasts: having broken through the $17,000 and $18,000 levels, the pair soared to a height of $18,780, showing a weekly gain of 15%. In total, the first three weeks of November saw, bitcoin grow by 35%, and the total crypto market capitalization increase from $401 billion to $515 billion, and at the time of writing the forecast, on November 20, it continues to grow. Such volumes were only seen during the historic 2017 rally.
Among the main reasons for the growth, experts cite the increasing adoption of bitcoin by both private investors and large institutional investors. Thus, a survey of 700 millionaires conducted by DeVere Group showed that 73% of them either already own this cryptocurrency or are going to invest in it.
Another reason is the monetary policy of the US Fed. Amid the coronavirus pandemic and interest rate cuts, the US money supply has risen by 22% this year. And that is not the limit, as another stimulus package of about $2 trillion is expected under the QE program.
Finally, there is a third serious reason for the growth of the basic cryptocurrency. Recently, net purchases of bitcoin on crypto exchanges have been significantly larger than the sales of miners. Citing data from analyst firm Glassnode, cryptanalyst Will Wu pointed out that hourly purchases of BTC on exchanges are almost 20 times higher than the amounts attributed to miner sales. Another specialist, Lark Davis, also confirmed that only 27,000 BTC were mined in the last month, and as many as 145,000 coins left the exchanges. Moreover, most of them migrated to "cold wallets" as an object of accumulation.
It should be noted here that, according to experts, the imbalance between BTC supply and demand will only increase, stimulating the growth of the coin. The reason is that the Chinese government has started a fight against the largest community of miners¬: Beijing has banned ICOs, cryptocurrencies are classified as unwanted speculation, and miners' bank accounts have begun to be blocked. This is despite the fact that more than half of bitcoins are mined in China at the moment.
Returning to the results of the week, we note that Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index froze at 86 by the evening of Friday, November 20, in the zone that the developers of the index designated as "Extreme Greed". This value corresponds to the BTC/USD pair being strongly overbought and portends its correction.


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  #486  
Old 22-11-2020, 13:03
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As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The US problems were described in the first part of this review. Considering scenarios for next year, Goldman Sachs predicts a 6% drop in the USD weighted rate in 2021, Citibank does not rule out that the dollar index could fall by 20%, and Morgan Stanley expects the EUR/USD pair to grow from the current 1.1800-1.1900 to 1.2500.
Looking to the near future, experts also give preference to the European currency. Thus, 65% of them expect that the pair will break the resistance of 1.1900 in the coming weeks and reach the zone of 1.2000-1.2100. Accordingly, 35% of analysts expect a decline to the level of 1.1700-1.1750. The likelihood of a fall to the November 4 low of 1.1600 is estimated so far at only 10%.
On the bulls side, there is a graphical analysis of 90% of trend indicators and 75% of oscillators on D1. The remaining 25% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is overbought. Closest supports are at 1.1740 and 1.1685 levels.
As for the most important economic events of the coming week, one should pay attention to the data on business activity in Germany and the Eurozone, which will be released on Monday 23 November, to macro statistics from the United States, including GDP for the third quarter and data on orders for durable goods on Wednesday 25 November, and to the results of the meeting of the Federal Reserve and on Thursday, November 26;

- GBP/USD. The October growth in consumer activity in the UK was most likely caused by the fact that the population was buying goods for future use before the coming lockdown. Therefore, it is possible that in November this figure will go into negative territory. Sales through online stores will not save it either. We should not forget the increasing likelihood of parting with the EU without a trade agreement. The leaders of European Union member states have already begun preparations for a hard Brexit, according to The Times newspaper.
Analysts' opinion has so far been divided equally. But when switching from a weekly forecast to a monthly one, the scales tilt in favor of the bears, and 65% of experts do not bode well for the pound, expecting the GBP/USD pair to fall by 300-400 points.
But the indications of technical analysis still look quite optimistic. 75% of oscillators, 100% of trend indicators on H4 and D1, as well as graphical analysis on H4 are colored green. An alternative point of view is represented by 25% of oscillators and graphical analysis on D1. Support levels are 1.3200, 1.3165, 1.3100, 1.3035 and 1.2855, resistance - 1.3310, 1.3400 and the August 1 high of 1.3480.
As for macroeconomic indicators, we advise you to pay attention to the November Markit PMI, which will be published on November 23 and, according to forecasts, may fall by more than 15%, from 51.4 to 42.5;

- USD/JPY. Until there is some clarity regarding the further monetary policy of the United States, the preferences of conservative market representatives will remain on the side of the Japanese currency. This is what at least 45% of analysts think, supported by 80% of indicators on both timeframes. 25% of experts have supported the growth of the dollar and the USD/JPY pair, and the remaining 30%, together with graphical analysis on D1, have taken a neutral position. Supports are located at 103.65, 103.15 and 102.00, resistance levels are 104.50, 105.15 and 105.70.
As for the graphical analysis, it draws a rebound upward from the central line of the descending channel in the 103.40 zone on D1, and the pair's return to its upper border in the 105.40-105.65 area;

- cryptocurrencies. Many investors are wondering if it is too late to buy bitcoins now. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, together with other indicators, have been in the overbought zone for a long time, the pair has almost approached the cherished $20,000, and no serious correction has yet occurred.
Actress Maisie Williams, who portrays Arya Stark in Game of Thrones, asked her Twitter followers if she should invest in bitcoin. More than 650 thousand users expressed their opinion, of which 50.7% answered in the affirmative, 49.3% - in the negative. The result is almost equal, which indicates a possible reversal of the downward trend.
A number of specialists expect the BTC/USD pair to fall to support in the $15,700 zone. But there are also notorious pessimists who recall the catastrophe of 2018, when the price collapsed from an all-time high of $20,000 to $3.125.
However, now the situation is somewhat different than in 2018. Bitcoin has proven not only its survivability during this time, but also its ability to generate colossal profits. Even Jamie Dimon, CEO of banking giant JPMorgan, admitted it. Now his analysts advise investing in this cryptocurrency, which Daimon had called "fraud and stupidity" back in 2017 Another giant is the PayPal payment system, which has only recently introduced a service for investing in cryptocurrencies, due to high demand, it has already doubled the limit, which has now reached $20,000.
A forecast was presented by Tom Fitzpatrick, Managing Director of one of the largest banks in the world, Citibank. According to him, thanks to consolidation in the status of digital gold, the rate of the first cryptocurrency can reach $318,000 by the end of 2021. Fitzpatrick believes that the bitcoin market is now reminiscent of the 1970s, when dollar inflation led to increased demand for gold. In 1971, US President Richard Nixon carried out a series of reforms, abandoning the Bretton Woods system and pegging the dollar to gold. As a result, the price of this precious metal showed a steady increase over the next 50 years.
In his new report, Bitcoin: Gold for the 21st Century, Fitzpatrick writes: "Bitcoin moved in the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, when new changes in the monetary regime took place and we dropped to zero interest rates." He notes that currently, financial stimulus measures against the backdrop of the coronavirus pandemic are leading to the formation of conditions similar to the 1970s.
It seems that legislators in Washington are also turning to cryptocurrencies. While Beijing is putting pressure on its miners, new US Senator Cynthia Lummis plans to bring discussions on the first cryptocurrency to the national level. “21 million bitcoins will be mined and that's it, this is a limited emission. Therefore, I am confident that it will become an important player as a store of value over time” said Lummis.
Robert Kiyosaki, a popular American entrepreneur and author of the bestselling Rich Dad Poor Dad, also agrees with the Senator. “Bitcoin's rise has outpaced gold and silver,” he wrote. - What does it mean? This means that you need to buy as much bitcoin and precious metal as you can and don't put it off. The train is already leaving. The dollar is dying. When the dollar falls, the price doesn't matter anymore. What matters is how much gold, silver and bitcoins you have.”
As for the forecast for the coming days, the overwhelming majority of experts (80%) have supported the sideways movement of the BTC/USD pair in the $18,000-19,000 range. And only 20% expect it to fall below $18,000. No one has voted for the breakdown of the $19,000 resistance in the coming week. However, if we talk about the forecast before the end of the year, 70% of analysts agree that bitcoin can update historical highs.


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Old 25-11-2020, 14:20
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- Musician Sean Lennon, son of world star John Lennon of The Beatles, has sided with the Bitcoin. “If everyone continued to use gold now, then it would have to be carried in bags. In addition, it is much easier to steal such an asset. Cryptocurrencies are almost completely independent. People need freedom, which the authorities, banks and other departments are trying to take away. Bitcoin allows you to use your funds to the maximum,” says Lennon Jr.

- Brad Garlinghouse, CEO of Ripple, has wished bitcoin luck. According to him, the entire industry will benefit from the growth of the main cryptocurrency, but a decrease in the correlation between assets can lead to new problems. Because of this, the head of Ripple has urged investors to have both bitcoin and altcoins in their portfolio.
He has also noted that the rally in the basic cryptocurrency that began in November could indeed lead to new all-time highs. According to him, ill-wishers are now talking about a new pyramid, which could collapse at any moment. But according to Garlinghouse, bitcoin now has huge support from large investors, making a major correction almost impossible.

- American rapper Logic bragged about $6 million in bitcoin investments to his fans. According to the artist, the funds were transferred to cryptocurrency last month. He first bought bitcoins worth $2 million then, after which he decided to make two more of the same transactions. Many social media users have agreed that Logic has already made good money, since a month ago the cost of bitcoin was significantly lower.

- For the first time, the Lithuanian State Tax Inspectorate has sold the confiscated cryptocurrency worth 6.4 million euros. the assets include Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Monero. The funds received from their sale are directed to the state budget. Recall that in the United States, the Federal Marshals Service regularly holds auctions for the sale of cryptocurrency confiscated by law enforcement agencies. Also, soon the confiscated cryptocurrency will be put up for auction in Romania.

- PayPal chief executive Dan Shulman believes bitcoin will ultimately be used more for day-to-day payments rather than a store of value. “The use of cryptocurrency in daily purchases will increase its functionality and stabilize it,” Shulman said, noting that during the coronavirus pandemic, the use of cash has dropped significantly. According to him, up to 70% of consumers no longer want to deal with them.
PayPal opened access to Bitcoin and several altcoins for its customers earlier this month and is now working to integrate trading platforms. This will allow sellers of goods and services to accept digital payments as early as next year. Dan Shulman noted that before launching the service, the company held detailed consultations with world regulators.

- The number of Ethereum addresses on which at least one ETH is stored has reached a historic high of 1.171 million addresses. Business for the leading altcoin took off in the summer, thanks to the growth of the decentralized finance sector (most of these projects were created on the basis of Ethereum). To date, investors have already invested $13 billion in the DeFi sector.
Still, the current growth cannot be compared with the takeoff of the coin, which began at the end of 2017. Note that as of 01/01/2017, there were only about 66 thousand Ethereum wallets, and just a year later, when the price of ETH reached its historical maximum around $1300, there were already 873 thousand of them (an increase of 1223%).

- On November 24, the price of bitcoin surged above $19,000 for the first time since December 2017. At the time of publication, the market capitalization of this coin has reached $357 billion and exceeded the capitalization of such a giant as investment bank JPMorgan (about $349 billion).
Despite its CEO's skepticism about digital currencies, JPMorgan has already started serving cryptocurrency exchanges Coinbase and Gemini, and bank analysts have confirmed that a number of institutional investors are considering bitcoin as an alternative to gold.

- Jaan Tallinn, co-founder of the telecommunications application Skype, has admitted in an interview with Fortune that he keeps a fairly large part of his personal fortune in cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin has also been supported by the chairman of the messenger company Intercom, Eogan McCabe. "I would like to announce that after years of pampering, I jumped firmly on the bitcoin train and now I want everyone else to do the same."

- Unknown people deceived the employees of the hosting provider GoDaddy and gained access to control over the domains of several cryptocurrency platforms. The attacks began on November 13, according to KrebsonSecurity.
The first victim was the Liquid cryptocurrency exchange. The hosting provider handed over control of the account and domain to an attacker. Liquid chief Mike Kayamori said the hacker managed to partially infiltrate the platform system and gain access to the document repository.
The second victim was the NiceHash cloud mining service: on November 18, experts found an unauthorized change of DNS settings in GoDaddy. NiceHash froze withdrawals for 24 hours until they were sure they were back to their original state.
Supposedly, cryptocurrency companies Bibox, Celsius and Wirex were also victims of the attack.

- Analyst Mati Greenspan believes that the current situation in the cryptocurrency market is qualitatively different from the situation that was observed three years ago. In 2017, the rise in the price of BTC to $20 thousand was the result of the entry of speculators into the crypto sphere. Now the market is controlled by corporations and large investors interested in its stability. The entry of large players leads to the fact that volatility will weaken, and this area will become more attractive, the analyst quotes the CNBC channel. Greenspan expects a further update of bitcoin highs as early as this year.

- Wall Street veteran Max Kaiser believes the supply shock will drive bitcoin to rise to $1 million. “The demand for bitcoin is growing almost exponentially,” he says, “while its supply is mathematically fixed at 900 coins per day. And in 2024, the supply will be halved to 450 BTC per day.
This is why I think that institutions that buy bitcoins will do it directly from miners, and people simply won't have the opportunity to buy coins as the price will skyrocket to $1 million per BTC. Meanwhile, Gen Z, who bought a lot of bitcoins when they were under $100, will become the new global power elite. The world order is about to change.”


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  #488  
Old 29-11-2020, 06:15
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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrency Forecast for November 30 - December 04, 2020


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. Making a forecast for the past week, most experts (65%) preferred the European currency. Graphical analysis, 90% of trend indicators and 75% of oscillators on D1 also sided with the bulls. And this forecast turned out to be almost correct. “Almost”, because it was expected that, having broken through the resistance of 1.1900, the EUR/USD pair will reach the zone 1.2000-1.2100. However, it managed to rise only to the height of 1.1960 at the very end of the working week. Perhaps this is due to the weekend in the United States - Thanksgiving on Thursday November 26th and Black Friday on the 27th.
The pair is pushed to growth by the improvement of the epidemiological situation in the European region. For example, France has already passed the peak of the second wave of the pandemic, and on November 28, a phased weakening of the existing restrictions begins. But there are also numerous global factors that make this pair's movement difficult to predict. The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the US last week was as much as 778 thousand - the worst figure in five weeks. This indicates a worsening economic situation. That being said, Republicans and Democrats still have no way to agree on the amount of additional stimulus payments under the QE program. And incumbent President Donald Trump does not want to cooperate with the opposite camp at all.
As for the timing of the appearance of the vaccine against COVID-19 and how vaccination will affect the recovery of the economies of the Old and New Worlds, there is no clarity, only guesses. The assessments of experts are diametrically different about the decision of the US President-elect Joe Biden to appoint the former head of the Fed Janet Yellen to the post of Treasury Secretary, Markets hoped that some guidelines would be suggested by the minutes of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve Committee on Open Markets. But there was not much clarity in it either, only an indecisive discussion of the asset purchase program. We quote: “Most of the participants believed that the Committee should update the forecast of actions over time and apply results-oriented guidance of a qualitative nature”. Well, and then everything is in the same style.
So far, the only indisputable thing is that the dollar index dropped from the March highs by more than 10% as a result of the Fed's monetary policy, reaching a two-year low, and the EUR/USD pair returned to the values of mid-August 2020. These facts are beyond doubt;

- GBP/USD. The result, which, due to general uncertainty, including negotiations on Brexit, was shown by this pair, can be called zero. Three weeks of November marked the Pivot Point at 1.3300. But if this line performed the function of resistance for the first two weeks, then it turned into support. The pair spent the entire five-day period in a lateral trend in a fairly narrow range of 1.3300-1.3400, and finished the trading session at its lower border;

- USD/JPY. The yen has made its unconditional contribution to the fall in the DXY dollar index. Its strengthening and the entry of the USD/JPY pair into the downward channel started at the end of March this year, in parallel with the spread of the coronavirus epidemic around the world. And in search of a safe haven currency, investors once again turned to the Japanese currency.
The pair not only kept within this channel last week, but also narrowed its trading range to 100 points in its upper half. As for the final indicators, they turned out to be even less - having started the five-day week at 103.80, it ended it at 104.05, showing an increase of only 25 points;

- cryptocurrencies. This time we will skip the introduction, like crime news, and immediately move on to the most important thing. Bitcoin being overbought is something we've written about on numerous occasions, something that has long been warned about by indicators including the RSI and Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Everything indicated that the market urgently needs a correction. And so it happened: the BTC/USD pair fell down, and now traders and investors are concerned about only two very important issues. 1) If this is a correction, at what level will it end? And 2) Is this a correction, and will the disaster that occurred with bitcoin in December 2017 happen again? Recall that then, getting close to $20,000, the pair turned sharply and found itself in the $3.125 region a year later, shrinking more than 6 times.
The current rally of the main cryptocurrency started in the first decade of September from the $10,000 area and was stopped on November 25 in the area of $19,500. This was followed by a collapse, and the local weekly low was fixed the next day at $16.280. After a slight rebound, BTC was quoted in the $17,000 zone on the evening of Friday 27 November.
At its peak on November 25, the total capitalization of the crypto market was $582 billion, but on Friday 27 November fell to $500 billion, losing 14%. This movement is fully correlated with the BTC/USD quotes. Much more interesting is that the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is still at 86 as it was seven days ago, and continues to indicate that the pair is strongly overbought. So, it is entirely possible that bitcoin has not yet completed its journey south.
As for altcoins, a number of them have recently shown more positive dynamics than the reference cryptocurrency. So, if the BTC/USD pair lost about 11% over the past seven days, the ripple (XRP/USD), for example, on the contrary, grew heavier by almost 70%, while ethereum (ETH/USD) ended this period with a zero result. Note that the leading altcoin still has good growth prospects. Business for the leading altcoin took off in the summer, thanks to the growth of the decentralized finance sector (most of these projects were created on the basis of Ethereum). To date, investors have already invested $13 billion in the DeFi-sector, and the number of wallets on which at least 1 ETH is stored has reached a historic high of 1.171 million.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. We spoke about the fog that has covered financial markets in recent weeks, in the first part of this review. And even the appearance of a vaccine against COVID-19, for all its obvious usefulness, is unclear how it will affect the exchange rate of a particular currency. Indeed, the degree of damage to the economies of different countries by the coronavirus is different, and the speed of their recovery will also differ. Undoubtedly, the policies that the new US administration under the leadership of Joe Biden will carryout will play a huge role, including domestic policy and the end of trade wars with Europe and China. Considering scenarios for next year, Goldman Sachs predicts a 6% drop in the USD weighted rate in 2021, Citibank does not rule out that the dollar index could fall by 20%, and Morgan Stanley expects the EUR/USD pair to grow from the current levels to 1.2500.
Most experts (60%) expect the pair to grow in the coming week as well. 100% trend indicators and 75% of oscillators on both H4 and D1 side with them. The nearest goal is still the same: to overcome the September 01 high and consolidate in the zone of 1.2000-1.2100.
The opposite point of view is supported by the remaining 35% of analysts, graphical analysis and a quarter of oscillators that give signals that the euro is overbought on both timeframes. Support levels are 1.1880, 1.1800, 1.1740 and 1.1685.
Among the macro-events of the week, we can note the publication of data on business activity (ISM) on December 01 and 03, as well as data on the US labor market on December 02 and 04. In addition, we will find out the statistics on the consumer market of the Eurozone on Tuesday 01 December and Thursday 03 December. Also, the speeches of the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde on November 30 and December 1, as well as the head of the Fed Jerome Powell on December 1, may also influence the formation of short-term trends;

- GBP/USD. The general tendency towards the weakening of the dollar affects the forecasts for this pair as well. 75% of analysts predict its growth first to the upper border of the channel 1.3300-1.3400. Perhaps it will be able to break through the resistance of 1.3400 and rise another 80-100 points higher, but only 30% of experts vote for this. Graphical analysis on H4 and 90% of oscillators and trend indicators on D1 also side with the bulls.
Indicators on H4 give a mixed picture. But graphical analysis on D1 showed that, after several days of movement in the 1.3300-1.3400 corridor, the pair may decline to 1.3200, after which it can return to the upper border of this corridor and even reach the September 1 high at 1.3480.
Support levels 1.3175, 1.3100 and 1.3000;

- USD/JPY. Albeit minimal, but still the growth of this pair last week made analysts think about its transition from a downward movement to a sideways movement. So, 60% of them assumed that it would move east in the range 103.70-105.30 for some time. Such a scenario is supported by graphical analysis on D1 and only 10% of oscillators giving signals that the pair is oversold. In case of a breakout of the upper border of the channel, the pair will meet resistance at 105.70, then at 106.15.
The remaining 40% of experts, along with graphical analysis on H4, as well as 100% of trend indicators and 90% of oscillators on both timeframes, side with the bears, indicating the direction to the south for the pair. The first support is 103.70. It is followed by the 09 November low at 103.15, which corresponds to the center line of the descending medium-term channel. The ultimate target of the bears is the 2020 low, which the pair reached on March 09, at 101.17;

- cryptocurrencies. If you look at the charts, you can see that the current situation is very similar to what it was in December 2017. At the same time, many experts say that the market is no longer the same, and that the collapse of three years ago is unlikely to repeat. Indeed, there is a growing acceptance of bitcoin by both private depositors and large institutional investors. Indeed, against the background of the coronavirus pandemic, the mass of fiat is growing, which increases the popularity of bitcoin as a protection against inflation. But what if the current fall is caused by the fact that large speculators simply started taking profits ahead of the end of the year? What if the stop orders set near the historic high have already started to work?
According to CoinTelegraph, shortly before the collapse, the All Exchanges Inflow metric showed an increase in BTC placement on exchanges, which clearly indicates the intentions of whales to start selling their crypto assets. But after the whales, looking at the current situation, many retail investors will follow. Moreover, Christmas holidays are not far off, and this is a period of increased need for fiat.
So there are plenty of resons for the further fall of the BTC/USD pair. But no compelling reasons for new growth are foreseen at least until early 2021. Although, of course, the pair's jerks to the north are quite possible. Some of the major speculators may try to play bullish, or, for example, the Chinese government will deal another blow to its miners, creating a supply shortage in the crypto market. All of this could push the quotes back up.
Looking ahead, it is appropriate to quote the opinion of the analyst Mati Greenspan. He believes that, unlike in 2017, the market is now controlled not by speculators but by corporations and large investors interested in its stability. The entry of large players leads to the fact that volatility will weaken, and this area will become more attractive. In connection with the above, Greenspan, like many other experts (there are now 65% of them), expects a further update of the bitcoin highs already this year.
In the meantime, the market is interested in the level at which the current correction will end. In general, is it a correction or a global trend reversal downward? In addition to the $17,000 zone, in which there was a consolidation at the end of the last working week, the next strong support may be the November 26 low in the $16,000-16,300 area, which fits within the Fibonacci correction. However, if the pair overcomes this support confidently, then it will return to the $14,700-15,700 zone, where it stayed in the first decade of November and from which the last stage of the upward rally started.
And at the end of the review, one more, already global, forecast from Max Kaiser. This Wall Street veteran believes the supply shock will drive bitcoin to rise to $1 million. “The demand for bitcoin is growing almost exponentially,” he says, “while its supply is mathematically fixed at 900 coins per day. And in 2024, the supply will be halved to 450 BTC per day. This is why I think that institutions that buy bitcoins will do it directly from miners, and people simply won't have the opportunity to buy coins as the price will skyrocket to $1 million per BTC. Meanwhile, Gen Z, who bought a lot of bitcoins when they were under $100, will become the new global power elite. The world order is about to change.”


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  #489  
Old 02-12-2020, 14:40
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- Experts agree that Bitcoin will be able to withstand the pressure of banks and reach a new level. According to one of scenarios, the correction of the main cryptocurrency from $19,480 to $16,280, which was fixed last week, is associated with the decision of the US President Donald Trump Administration to tighten control over the circulation of digital assets. Officials chose to change the rules for registering cryptocurrency wallets as one of the ways to manage transactions.
Many crypto companies have already begun developing new versions of wallets, which will receive permits from the US Securities and Exchange Commission before launching. Trump is probably trying to resist China in this way, which is preparing to release its own cryptocurrency. If the digital yuan becomes a cross-border payment instrument, it can be used instead of the dollar. This will make sanctions against China ineffective, and Washington will lose the ability to put pressure on Beijing.
“Bitcoin has an indirect relationship to everything that happens, but even the first statements by representatives of the American government about the desire to start controlling the industry brought it down by several thousand dollars in a matter of hours. But I do not think this will lead to serious problems, as the market has already managed to recover from the correction,” said Mark Yusko, the head of Morgan Creek investment company. Moreover, according to experts of Stack Funds, this correction is not only “healthy”, but also will allow bitcoin to prepare for a new high of $86,000.

- According to Mike Novogratz, head of the Galaxy Digital crypto trading bank, everyone should invest 2-3% of their funds in bitcoin. “After that, it is enough to wait a little time, and you will be surprised, but cryptocurrencies will cost significantly more. If you wait five years, the assets will multiply several times,” he wrote. According to the head of Galaxy Digital, bitcoin volatility can be expected in the near future, but it is unlikely to sink below $12,000, and even a correction to such levels is unlikely.

- An unknown user received 7 Ethereum coins (about $4,200 at the time of writing) for a solved puzzle that began with a billboard in the Warsaw subway. An ad with an ethereum address and hashtags #0xPOLAND and #0xPOLANDHEIST appeared at one of the metro stations and urged passengers to solve the puzzle hiding the secret phrase for withdrawing funds to ETH. The tips were posted on a Twitter account called 0xPoland. The final clue appeared in the print and electronic editions of Gazeta Wyborcza.
The organizers explained that they wanted to invite people to join their team "to create a decentralized financial infrastructure."

- Authorities in Delaware County (Pennsylvania, USA) paid hackers $500,000 in bitcoins after the county's information systems were attacked by the DoppelPaymer ransomware virus. The extortionists gained access to police records, payment documents, procurement information and other databases, however, it is argued that the attack did not affect the voting systems. After getting the ransom, the hackers advised authorities to change passwords and gave recommendations for configuring the Windows domain.

- The number of addresses containing more than one bitcoin is growing steadily and has exceeded 820 thousand. These wallets hold 95% of the total digital gold market volume. This is evidenced by data from analytics companies Glassnode and BitinfoCharts. Smaller addresses store about $16 billion of digital gold. There are 32.6 million addresses with non-zero balance in the world.

- The value of bitcoin could surpass the $500 thousand mark, the founder of the Gemini crypto exchange Tyler Winklevoss, one of the twin brothers who was called the first cryptocurrency billionaires, told CNBC. He called the current price of the main digital coin “an opportunity to buy” as it could rise in price by 25 times in the future. “Bitcoin will surpass gold. If this happens, the capitalization of this cryptocurrency will exceed $9 trillion,” predicted Tyler Winklevoss.
It became known in summer 2020 that the Winklevoss brothers are planning to make a film about their history of investing in cryptocurrency. Ben Mezrich's biographical book "Bitcoin Billionaires" will be filmed for this purpose.

- Global Macro Investor CEO Raul Pal has placed an order to sell all of his gold to invest in BTC and ETH at an 80/20 ratio. He announced this on Twitter and clarified that in addition to gold, there are some bonds and US dollars in his portfolio.
The head of Global Macro Investor expects that even conservative institutional investors, who usually prefer precious metals, will start investing in bitcoin next year. Therefore, Pal made the bold assumption that the rate of the first cryptocurrency cad reach $250,000 in a year.

- A message from South America: the Venezuelan army is mining cryptocurrencies. A Digital Asset Mining Centre for the Armed Forces of the country has opened in Caracas. An area on the territory of the Fort Tiuna headquarters was allocated for the Centre. The military called the creation of a mining center" an unblockable source of income" and an example of cooperation with the civilian sector.
The amount of computing power has not been specified, but it is known that
the Venezuelan National Guard has previously detained a truck with 315 mining blocks from Bitmain. The equipment was confiscated and has apparently become the basis for a new military crypto facility.

- Joe Biden's administration should focus on integrating bitcoin into the US financial system instead of creating a digital dollar like China. This is the opinion of Niall Ferguson, a former professor at Harvard and Oxford and now a senior researcher at Stanford.
In a new article, the world-renowned economic historian looked at the US dollar, gold and bitcoin as the monetary revolution continued, accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Drawing parallels with the plague of the 14th century, the historian noted that the pandemic let digital gold cover a decade-long path in only ten months. And this happened not only because of the closed banks, but also due to the tightening of financial supervision.

- Payment system Visa has entered into cooperation with crypto startup BlockFi to launch a credit card with cashback in bitcoin in early 2021, writes Bloomberg. Users of the "Bitcoin Rewards Credit Card" product will receive a cashback of 1.5% of the amount spent in BTC and will also receive $250 in cryptocurrency once they spend more than $3,000 in the first three months. The rewards earned will be automatically transferred to the client's account in BlockFi, where they will be available for various transactions or withdrawal to a third-party wallet.


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  #490  
Old 04-12-2020, 13:05
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NordFX Sums Up November Results: TOP 3 Most Successful Traders


NordFX brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in November.

The maximum profit for that month was received by a client from Vietnam, account No.1416xxx. The client's profit of 40.153 USD was obtained mainly from transactions with the EUR/AUD currency pair and gold (XAU/USD).

Second is the trader from India (account No.1485xxx), whose profit was just under 40 thousand dollars (38.930 USD), and was obtained through trading on many pairs, including GBP/USD, USD/CHF and GBP/NZD.

The third place in the November TOP 3 belongs to the Vietnamese trader (account No. 1511xxx), with a result of 15.925 USD, who traded in the NZD/USD, AUD/USD and XAU/USD pairs.

The passive investment services in November:

- in CopyTrading, the signal provider under the nickname 78XGaming showed the maximum growth with a fantastic result of + 1539% with a drawdown of 79%;

- in the PAMM service, the results are much more modest. Here the manager with the nickname ProCapital became the leader, showing an increase of 15.51%. However, the drawdown here was significantly lower, only 9.8%, which can be attractive for investors who prefer stable income with a moderate degree of risk.


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  #491  
Old 06-12-2020, 06:46
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Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for December 07 - 11, 2020


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The dollar continues to fall, the euro continues to rise. The pair has traveled from 1.1600 to 1.2175 since early November. The main reasons for the weakening of the US currency lie in the growing global risk appetite. Against the background of positive news about vaccines against coronavirus, the market has believed in the imminent recovery of the global economy. Moreover, not the US economy, but the economies of other countries, including developing. The situation in the United States itself is not encouraging: the main indicators, including business activity and employment of the population, turned red here last week. Suffice it to say that the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP) collapsed from 610K in October to 245K in November, due to new quarantine measures.
Investments in the US economy are becoming unpopular, the S&P500 and Dow Jones stock indices have switched to a sideways trend, treasury (government debt) yields are not growing, but inflationary expectations, on the contrary, have soared to annual highs. Interest rates are minimal, which contributes to the departure of investors to other assets, overseas.
The interesting thing is that Europe has enough problems as well. Based on the dynamics of purchasing managers' indices, it is the EU, not the United States, that is now the main brake on the world economy. Yes, Joe Biden has welcomed the compromise proposal for another $908 billion aid package for the US economy, adding that he would not be limited to it. But the ECB, according to the Bloomberg forecast, will expand the emergency asset purchase program by €500 billion at a meeting on December 10, extending its term from mid to late 2021. In addition, the European regulator will also increase the scale of LTRO, a program for long-term anti-crisis refinancing of banks. Added to this are concerns with the UK over the Brexit agreement, plus disagreements with Poland and Hungary over the COVID-19 Rescue Fund and interest rates in the EU are even lower than in the US.
In general, there are enough problems on both sides of the Atlantic. But, nevertheless, as expected by most experts (60%), the EUR/USD pair continued its growth last week, ending the five-day period at 1.2120. And the point here is not so much in the strength of the euro, but in the weakness of the dollar, the DXY index of which fell to 90.5 for the first time in two years;

- GBP/USD. The British currency has also grown against the dollar, having risen by 670 points since early November. And this despite the fact that London and Brussels cannot come to an agreement on the Brexit terms, and the tough position of France in general makes one doubt that such agreements are possible.
The forecast, which was supported by 75% of analysts last week, was absolutely correct: the pair rose to the upper limit of the 1.3300-1.3400 channel. Then it was broken down and the pair moved further north to 1.3540 and finished the trading session at 1.3435.
The pound, of course, was supported by the weakening dollar. In addition, the bulls were also helped by the announcement of the signing of a contract between the British government and Pfizer for the purchase of 40 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine, 10 million of which the UK will receive next week. The market was also pleased with the removal of a number of quarantine measures in the country, and the decision on partial admission of spectators to the national football league games;

- USD/JPY. The forecast for this pair also turned out to be correct. Supported by graphical analysis on D1, 60% of experts had said that the pair would stop its decline and move east in the 103.70-105.30 range. In reality, this lateral channel turned out to be somewhat narrower, 103.66-104.75. And the reason for the emerging equilibrium between the dollar and the yen was the same rise in risk sentiment and a drop in interest in such protective assets as the Japanese currency. The final chord of the week sounded in the central zone of the specified channel at 104.15;

- cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin has been pounding towards the psychologically important $20,000 level over the past two weeks. And although it updated the historical high, reaching the mark of $19,930 on December 01, all attempts to conquer the height of twenty thousand ended in profit taking and a rollback.
According to a number of experts, in addition to triggering stop orders, there are also political reasons that force investors to go to fiat. So, according to one version, the correction of the main cryptocurrency on November 25-26 from $19,480 to $16,280, which had many chances to develop into a catastrophic collapse, was associatedwith the decision of the administration of American President Donald Trump to tighten control over the circulation of digital assets. Officials chose to change the rules for registering cryptocurrency wallets as one of the ways to manage transactions.
Many crypto companies have already begun developing new versions of wallets, which will receive permits from the US Securities and Exchange Commission before launching. Trump is probably trying to resist China in this way, which is preparing to release its own cryptocurrency. If the digital yuan becomes a cross-border payment instrument, it can be used instead of the dollar. This will make sanctions against China ineffective, and Washington will lose the ability to put pressure on Beijing.
“Bitcoin has an indirect relationship to everything that happens", Mark Usko, head of Morgan Creek investment company, comments, "but even the first statements by representatives of the American government about the desire to start controlling the industry brought it down by several thousand dollars in a matter of hours".
After this drop, bitcoin returned to the $19,000 zone very quickly. Along with the BTC/USD quotes, the total market capitalization of the crypto market has also recovered. It stood at $582 billion at its peak on November 25, then dipped to $500bn on November 27. And now, seven days later, on December 04, it is at $575 billion.
According to analytical companies Glassnode and BitInfoCharts, the number of addresses containing more than one bitcoin is also steadily growing, exceeding 820 thousand at the moment. These wallets hold 95% of the total BTC market volume. In total, there are 32.6 million addresses with a non-zero balance in the world.
Despite the seemingly positive dynamics, the fall ofbitcoin by 16.4% on November 25-26shows the precariousness of its current state. Both investors and traders understand this, and they are ready to start massively closing long positions at any time. Bitcoin's Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose from 86 to 92 in seven days, showing that the overbought coin is only getting worse, which could lead to another strong correction. In the meantime, the pair has chosen the $19,000 horizon as the Pivot Point, along which it has been moving throughout the past week.
As for altcoins, they, rise and fall for the most part, following the reference cryptocurrency. So, despite the increase in the total capitalization of the crypto market, the bitcoin dominance indicator has remained practically unchanged and is 62.44% (62.33% a week ago). Similar indicators of altcoins from the TOP-10 have hardly changed either. Although, we can highlight the ripple (XRP/USD), whose share in the total market capitalization has grown 1.8 times over the month, from 2.69% to 4.89%. This is because Flare Networks will airdrop spark coins on December 12th based on a snapshot of all XRP Ledger addresses. Thanks to this, each ripple holder will receive free spark in a 1:1 ratio, which is reflected in the popularity of this coin and the growth of its quotes. After a long stagnation in the region of $ 0.24, it rose to $ 0.77 at the high over the past three weeks, and it is quoted in the zone of $ 0.60 at the time of writing.


continued below...
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  #492  
Old 06-12-2020, 06:48
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As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The higher this pair rises, the more willingness of large speculators to start taking profit on it. Moreover, the end of the financial year is just around the corner, it's time to take stock. In order for the dollar to continue its fall, the risk sentiment needs constant recharging, but the market may lose it. US stock indexes have been holding sideways since November 09. But this stability is very relative and threatens with a sudden collapse, which will entail the withdrawal of investors from the stock market in favor of the dollar.
For example, a reassessment of the optimistic expectations related to vaccination against the COVID-19 may lead them to this. And there are reasons for this. For example, the Pfizer has already reported problems with supplies, due to which the volume of vaccine production in 2020 will be halved, from 100 million to 50 million doses. A sharp rise in the yield of 10-year US government bonds could also strike the stock market. And you never know what else can happen this year rich in surprises!
There will be a meeting of the European Council, the ECB's decision on the interest rate and a subsequent press conference by the bank's management on Thursday, December 10. But the meeting of the US Federal Reserve on December 16 seems to be more interesting.
At the moment, graphical analysis on H4, 90% of trend indicators and 75% of oscillators on H4 and D1 are colored green. However, the remaining 25% of the oscillators are already giving active signals that the pair is overbought. The pair is expected to decline to the 1.1850-1.1950 zone by the majority (65%) of experts as well, supported by graphical analysis on D1. Immediate support is at 1.2000. Resistance levels are 1.2175, 1.2200, 1.2260 and 1.2320;

- GBP/USD. Significant for this pair is the level of 1.3500, which it reached at the end of last week. Graphical analysis, 100% of trend indicators and 85% of oscillators on H4 and D1 predict further movement to the north. Resistance levels are 1.3625 and 1.3725. However, only 40% of analysts agree with this scenario. The remaining 60% believe that this pair will also turn down, following the EUR/USD reversal. Moreover, if the negotiations on Brexit do not come out of the impasse, its fall may turn into a collapse. However, even if the agreement is concluded, it is likely to be formal and very limited, and is unlikely to please the fans of the British currency. Support levels are 1.3400, 1.3285, 1.3175. The ultimate goal of the bears in December is to return to the 1.3000 horizon;

- USD/JPY. The dollar and the yen have reached a temporary truce due to rising risk sentiment, moving to a sideways trend. However, the pair never went beyond the medium-term channel, along which it smoothly slides south since the end of March. And the vast majority of experts (70%), supported by graphical analysis on D1, believe that this downtrend will continue. More precisely, it will be a lateral movement with a dominance of bearish sentiment. The main resistance will be the level of 104.50, fighting off from which, the pair will fall first by 100 points lower, and then reach the November 09 low in the zone of 103.15.
An alternative point of view is held by 30% of analysts who expect that the pair will first reach the upper border of the two-week sideways channel 104.75, and then try to consolidate above the horizon of 105.00. The next target of the bulls is 105.65;

- cryptocurrencies. The fall of bitcoin on November 25-26 by 16.4% occurred, according to a number of experts, due to the tough decision of the Donald Trump administration regarding digital assets. However, if the team of the current US President is an obstacle to the development of the crypto market, then everything can change with the arrival of Joe Biden in the White House. Former Harvard and Oxford professor and now Stanford senior fellow Niall Ferguson believes that the administration of the new President should focus on integrating bitcoin into the US financial system instead of creating a digital dollar following China's example.
In a new article, the world-renowned economic historian looked at the US dollar, gold and bitcoin as the monetary revolution continued, accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Drawing parallels with the plague of the 14th century, the historian noted that the pandemic let digital gold cover a decade-long path in only ten months. And this happened not only because of the closed banks, but also due to the tightening of financial supervision.
According to Mike Novogratz, head of the Galaxy Digital crypto trading bank, everyone should invest 2-3% of their funds in bitcoin. “After that, it is enough to wait a little time, and you will be surprised, but cryptocurrencies will cost significantly more. If you wait five years, the assets will multiply several times,” he wrote. According to the head of Galaxy Digital, bitcoin volatility can be expected in the near future, but it is unlikely to sink below $12,000, and even a correction to such levels is unlikely. The above-mentioned correction on November 25-26, according to experts from Stack Funds, is not only "healthy", but will also allow Bitcoin to prepare for a new high of $86,000.
The Director General of Global Macro Investor Raoul Pal expects that even conservative institutional investors, who usually prefer precious metals, will start investing in bitcoin next year. Therefore, Pal made a bold assumption that the rate of the first cryptocurrency could reach $250,000 in a year, and placed an order for the sale of all the gold he had in order to invest in BTC and ETH in the ratio 80 to 20.
Even more inspiring forecast was given by Gemini crypto exchange founder Tyler Winklevoss, one of the twin brothers who are called the first cryptocurrency billionaires. He said on CNBC that the value of bitcoin could exceed the $500k mark. He called the current price of the main digital coin “an opportunity to buy” as it could rise in price by 25 times in the future. “Bitcoin will surpass gold. If this happens, the capitalization of this cryptocurrency will exceed $9 trillion,” predicted Tyler Winklevoss.
In the meantime, the probability that the BTC/USD pair will be able to gain a foothold above $20,000 by the end of this month is estimated at 30%. The likelihood of its fall to the $15,000-15,700 zone is estimated at the same 30%.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  #493  
Old 09-12-2020, 15:14
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CryptoNews


- Interest in Bitcoin has reached the summer 2019 level. According to Google Trends, the numbers began to increase almost immediately after the reference coin rose in value to $12,000. Comparing the current growth with the growth in December 2017, followed by a collapse, analysts write: “In December 2017, the main cryptocurrency became a real trend, staying in the top for search queries. Now, the dynamics is about the same, but the indicators are still lower than at the end of 2017. Most likely, the peak of interest will be at the moment when the historical high is broken."

- Bloomberg experts believe that the value of bitcoin in 2021 may increase to $50,000. This is evidenced by a partial repetition of a number of factors that were observed in 2017 during the famous rally. However, Bitcoin now has significantly more support, which minimizes the likelihood of a pullback.
“There is no reason for a change of Bitcoin's movement direction right now,” Bloomberg writes. - The dollar is gradually losing its position, pulling along other fiat currencies. All this is seen by investors who are forced to switch to alternative asset types.” Open interest in the CME bitcoin futures market exceeded $1 billion for the first time in history, which also speaks of growing support from investors.

- One of the factories of the Taiwanese electronics manufacturer Foxconn has become a victim of the DoppelPaymer ransomware virus. The hackers demanded 1804 BTC (about $33.8 million at the time of writing) from the company. The attackers stole approximately 100 GB of files, encrypted the company's North American segment (1200-1400 servers), deleted 20-30 TB of backups, and made some of the documents publicly available.
In early November, DoppelPaymer attacked another Taiwanese laptop manufacturer, Compal Electronics. Then the attackers demanded 1100 BTC for decryption.

- Bitcoin will rise to $29,569 next year, according to a report from the fintech company Cindicator. This figure was obtained from a survey of over 156,000 users. The respondents with the most accurate forecasts, the so-called "superforcasters", on average expect even greater growth, to $32,056. As for the lower bar, according to the average forecast, it is at $15,000. “Superforcasters” are less optimistic and expect a decline to $12,000.
Cindicator's “hybrid intelligence”, which uses machine learning algorithms to process data from a team of analysts, predicts similar values, only in a narrower range. According to its calculations, the BTC rate next year will not exceed $25,222 and will not fall below $16,000. At the same time, the total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market in 2021 with a probability of 80% will surpass the 2018 record of $828 billion.
According to the same forecast by Cindicator, the price of the first cryptocurrency will reach $21,000 this year.

- Edward Snowden, former special agent of the CIA and the US National Security Agency (NSA), who fled to Russia, recalled that he had been right about the prospects for bitcoin. During the March crash to $3,820, Snowden announced that it was time to buy bitcoin as there was little reason to panic. Now the ex-spy has become an even more staunch supporter of digital gold. “I found out today that the dollar has depreciated against bitcoin by 99.93% since 2013,” he wrote.

- US Global Advisors investment company CEO Frank Holmes suggested that gold, bitcoin and ethereum could rise next year. At the same time, Holmes believes that the price of bitcoin and gold is influenced by completely different factors. Thus, the increase in the value of the first cryptocurrency was influenced by the May halving of the reward to miners to 6.25 BTC. “If global gold mining companies announce that they will cut gold supplies by 50%, I can assure you that gold will cost $10,000 per troy ounce. It's all about supply and demand,” Holmes explained.
As for Ethereum, its rate is driven by the latest advances in decentralized finance (DeFi). DappRadar researchers have recently reported that 96% of the total DeFi transactions was on ethereum in Q3 2020, which also led the daily number of active wallets.

- American billionaire Paul Tudor Jones announced last May that he was investing in bitcoin to hedge against inflation and now calls bitcoin an undervalued asset. “$500 billion is the wrong market capitalization for bitcoin in a world where there is a $90 trillion stock market, and God knows how many trillions there are in fiat currency. I assume it is being misjudged in terms of its inherent capabilities, ”he told Yahoo! Finance. “Cryptocurrencies will have a crazy rocket flight with ups and downs along the way,” he says. - Bitcoin, in particular, will be significantly higher in 20 years than it is now. From here the road for it lies to the north.”
Jones is one of the most recognizable traders in the world today. He rose to fame in the 1980s when he predicted a Black Monday market crash in 1987. He is also associated with the rapid development of the global hedge fund industry. Tudor Investment Corporation manages $10 billion in assets, and the investor's personal fortune is estimated at $5 billion.

- Cuban residents have begun to turn to cryptocurrencies more often after the tightening of US sanctions. On November 23, the Western Union payment system closed 407 offices in Cuba due to restrictions imposed on money transfers to the country, writes Deutsche Welle. Cubans began using bitcoin and some altcoins to circumvent sanctions. At the same time, the volume of many transfers does not exceed $20, and there are about 10 thousand active holders of digital assets in the country.
Recall that Cuba came in second in terms of the number of searches related to bitcoin. In terms of interest in the first cryptocurrency, the country was second only to Nigeria.

- Financial conglomerate Wells Fargo, one of the "big four" US banks, has published a new investment report, in which a separate page under the heading "Bitcoin - 2020's best performing and most volatile asset" is devoted to the cryptocurrency market. The authors do not directly encourage clients to invest in digital assets, but generally maintain an optimistic tone regarding their prospects. “Over the past 12 years, they have grown from literally nothing to a $560 billion market cap,” writes Wells Fargo. "Hobbies don't usually last 12 years."
The bank notes that bitcoin is up 170% over the year, but warns about its high volatility. “Investing in cryptocurrencies today is akin to living in the early days of the 1850s gold rush, which involved more speculation than investing.”


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  #494  
Old 13-12-2020, 13:11
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Forex Technical Analysis: Basics, Theory, Tools


The Forex market is a place where almost everyone has every chance to make money. But do not confuse luck with a professional approach. Trader is a profession that needs to be learned. Otherwise, intuition will fail sooner or later, and a series of trades will turn into a continuous loss. That is why, as a start to your career, it is better not to waste time, but to start by studying technical market analysis. It will let you trade with awareness.

Technical analysis is a global trend in the study of price behavior, its dynamics and external signs, which is based on statistical historical data. It is important to note this trend includes a huge arsenal of tools and specific movements that allow to analyze the quotes from different angles. Its main feature is its historical recurrence, cyclicality. Thanks to it, you will not only learn how to navigate in the current situation, but also to predict the future.

Whom Technical Analysis of Graphs Suits

There are two main areas that beginners should study at the level of theory * - fundamental and technical analysis.

The first is difficult, as it requires an understanding of macroeconomics, world politics and their relationship with each other. Therefore, it is logical that people with the appropriate education are inclined towards the fundamental analysis.

If you adopt technical analysis (TA), you will not need to study complex economic theory and immerse yourself in the monetary policy of each individual state or bloc. You will not need to think about how, for example, the presidential elections of any country might affect the demand for oil on the world market, and that, in turn, the quotes of a particular currency.

Unlike fundamental analysis, technical analysis assumes that the market has already taken into account all these factors in its current quotes. The price dynamics, its movement features demonstrate the psychological portrait of the bidders. Knowing what motivates the participants, the key players, it is possible to build unique trading systems.

Technical analysis is suitable for beginners not because of its simplicity, but because of its versatility. The history of its development gave birth to thousands of instruments and views on price movement. Each trader can choose something of their own, without delving into complex mathematical calculations. Regardless of your background, profession, type of character, Forex technical analysis is an effective solution for making money in the foreign exchange markets for both beginners and experienced professionals.

Trader's Work Environment

One of the main challenges in learning to work with charts can be the choice of the working environment and the object of study. For example, one of the key questions is the choice of the currency pair to be traded, the time frame and, of course, the trading terminal.

The trader adjusts all these parameters personally, depending on their goals. For example, the brokerage company NordFX provides its clients with the opportunity to trade on MetaTrader 4, the world's most popular terminal. It can be both a stationary MT4 terminal and its mobile versions, which allow you to analyze the market, open and close up to 100 trading orders at any time from anywhere in the world where there is Internet access. MetaTrader 4 has a friendly interface, a huge number of built-in useful features and is a powerful weapon in the hands of the trader. You can learn more about how MT4 works in the corresponding section on the official NordFX website.

Time Frame

A time frame is a time interval during which one candle or bar is formed. Using different intervals allows you to cut off market noises and catch global trends, moving from a shorter time frame to a larger one.

In MT4 there are 9 options for presenting quotes charts - М1, М5, М15, М30 (that is, 1 candlestick or bar corresponds to 1, 5, 15 or 30 minutes), H1, H4, D1, W1 and MN (respectively, 1 candlestick is equal to 1 hour, 4 hours, 1 day, 1 week and 1 month). Thus, by choosing the one-minute time frame, you will see on the screen how the price has changed every minute for several hours, and by choosing, for example, the MN time frame, you will see the price change over several years.

Also, you will see the so-called tick charts in MT4 which are formed not by time, but by trades. One deal has passed - one tick has formed. And there can be several such ticks even within one minute.

Each trader selects the necessary interval for themselves, depending on the desired trading activity, their trading strategy and, ultimately, temperament and discipline. The higher the timeframe, the more averaged the picture you get. Some traders , called scalpers, can open and close trades in a very short time, so they use M1, M5 time frames and tick charts. Others are guided by long-term trends, relying on charts not lower than H4 or D1.

Currency Pairs

There are a lot of recommendations as to which specific currency pairs to use when trading. Moreover, in most cases, the emphasis is on the main, so-called "major", currency pairs, consisting of the main and most liquid currencies - USD, EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP. Pairs using AUD, CAD and NZD (Australian, Canadian and New Zealand dollars) as well as CNH (Chinese yuan) are also popular.

Basically, Forex technical analysis is applicable not only to these currency pairs, but also to rarer ones, such as ZAR (South African rand), SGD (Singapore dollar) or NOK (Norwegian krone). It can also be used to forecast many other trading instruments available to clients of the NordFX brokerage company. These are cryptocurrencies (bitcoin, ethereum and many others), gold, silver, oil, shares of various large companies and leading stock indices. That is, technical analysis is a universal method that can be used to make money not only in Forex , but also in other markets - stock, commodity, cryptocurrency. However, the technical analysis tools used each time require individual settings depending on the currency pairs and time frames used in trading.

So, for example, exotic currencies and cryptocurrencies are more difficult for technical analysis, since interest in them is weaker, there are fewer transactions, and trading volumes are lower. As a result, any news or manipulation, even by a not very large speculator, can lead to sharp unpredictable jumps in quotations.

Technical Analysis Tools

Do not confuse trading tools and technical analysis tools. The first is what you trade (currencies, cryptocurrencies, stocks, etc.), while the second is what you use to analyze the market and make decisions about a particular transaction. The diversity of this area has no boundaries. Every year, many new and unique tools are invented that allow you to make more and more accurate trading decisions. At the same time, the vast majority of them can be divided into the following groups.

Graphic Tools

Using graphic tools, the trader sets out patterns on the price chart and simplifies the forecasting process. They can be based on both a complex mathematical model and ordinary geometric shapes, the main task of which is to simplify the work with chart markings. These include: lines, channels, shapes, icons. As a simple example, the graph shows a down-to-date price channel that has changed to an uptrend.

All graphical instruments, based on the Fibonacci numerical sequence (levels, arcs, extension, time zones) are commonly called the mathematical model in this analysis. This also includes developments using the methods of William Gunn (grid, line, fan, pitchfork), pitchforks of Andrews and Schiff, Eliott waves and the methods of a number of other well-known scientists and practicing traders.

With their help, you can determine the direction of the trend, possible pivot points, the depth of the rollback (correction), and form the current trading range.

Indicators

This is a separate area, the essence of which is a mathematical way of averaging and converting the price into different graphs (rarely tables), allowing to cut off the superfluous and highlight the most important characteristics, and therefore more convenient for analysis and forecasting. This can be work according to given formulas with trading volumes, volatility, speed and acceleration of price changes and, of course, trends.

There are a lot of variations of indicators, and there are both basic, time-tested and custom ones. Basic or standard indicators are usually called those that are included in the trading terminal toolkit by default. There are more than 50 of them in MetaTrader 4. A number of them are based on the aforementioned mathematical models of graphic analysis. Custom indicators can be either completely original developments or a modification of standard ones. There are thousands of them at the moment, and many new ones appear every day, which can be purchased or downloaded for free online and integrated into your personal MT4 terminal.

They are divided by their function and purpose:
- Trending (Moving Average, ADX, Bollindger Bands);
- Oscillators (Stochastic, RSI, RVI, MACD);
- Volumes.

The first huge category serves the trader in order to highlight the trend, its strength and direction, predict changes, cut off noise. The second group shows the overbought and oversold market, giving entry and exit points (for opening and closing trades). Volumes demonstrate the involvement of players and their money supply in the market. This is a kind of way to see what capital is behind the selected movement of an asset. All trading add-ons underlying the indicators are the transformation of mathematical formulas.

Patterns

Patterns are graphic patterns that are often repeated in the market, the appearance of which, according to long-term observations, can lead to one or another price movement. These are patterns of formation of bars or candles , their combinations, which are cyclical and in most cases lead to a pre-known scenario. The concepts of "Japanese candle" and "candle models" on Forex are discussed in a separate article in more detail. Here we note that in practice all models are divided into:
- Reversal Pattern;
- Uncertainty Pattern;
- Trend Continuation Pattern.

Each of them can lead to a specific scenario. However, one should not take any of them as an axiom. The efficiency changes in the conditions of the selected time frame, currency pair and type of trading asset. This is why each pattern is tested before being used in real trading conditions. Popular candlestick patterns: hammer, hanging man, harami, doji, falling star, absorption. Graphic shapes: wedge, rectangle, double top, head and shoulders, cup, flag, pennant.

The Main Purpose of the Study and Use

The mistake of beginners is that they try to absorb as much knowledge, and then use all of it in practice. In fact, it is impossible to do that, because it can lead to a “brain explosion”. Mutually exclusive conditions constantly arise in the market. For example, the trend line indicates a dominant up market, and the candlestick formation indicates an imminent reversal. We see a downward trend on the M30 timeframe, while on H4, it, on the contrary, is pointing upwards, and the oscillator is in a neutral position at the same time. What is the priority?

The main task of technical analysis is to give the conditions on the basis of which you will create a trading strategy.

A trading strategy is a set of rules and conditions that can include the readings of one or several indicators, analysis of patterns, and the construction of your own chart patterns on different time frames. A fundamental analysis of macroeconomic statistics and political events can be added there. And the more of these rules you put into your strategy, the worse it will be... the harder it will be for you to analyze the situation and make trading decisions.

There is this proverb — “All in good fun.” The complication of a trading strategy makes it impossible to apply it, even if you create a trading robot instead of your own brain and use all the capabilities of your computer.

A trading robot or a trading advisor is a computer program that will automatically implement the trading strategy embedded in it according to a given algorithm. The advantages are obvious: the program trades 24 hours a day, seven days a week, does not give in to panic or the excitement inherent in humans, and operates within a strictly specified algorithm. There are tens of thousands of trading advisors for MT4 . And now it is easier to buy a ready-made or even download one for free on the Internet than to invent your own with the help of a programmer. Most of the ideas that come to mind for a novice trader have long been implemented. However, keep in mind that an expensive advisor is not necessarily a good one, and a free one is not necessarily a bad one. Quite often the opposite is true.

How to Learn to Make money

The best way to learn is to use good literature. The main condition *is to read the books of real traders. We can recommend the following fundamental textbooks among the huge number of repetitive editions:
- Jack Schwager “Technical Analysis. Full course”;
- Thomas DeMark "Technical Analysis - The New Science";
- Steve Nison “Japanese Candles: A Graphic Analysis of Financial Markets.”

Also note that the broker NordFX has created a special section "Education" on its website, where you can gather a lot of information necessary for both beginners and experienced traders. All this useful knowledge is presented not only in the form of dozens of books and articles, but also in the video format.

To consolidate your knowledge, you should definitely go from a theoretical plane to a practical one. The demo account NordFX will help you with this, on which you can, absolutely risk-free, gain real experience trading virtual money.


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  #495  
Old 14-12-2020, 07:26
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Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for December 14 - 18, 2020


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. As expected, the European Central Bank left its interest rate unchanged, at the same level of 0%. The euro had a chance to somewhat weaken its position against the dollar. However, it missed it due to the ECB's decision to ramp up the volume of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) by another €500bn and a subsequent comment from the head of that bank Christine Lagarde. Actually, there was nothing unexpected in this decision, we predicted such an outcome a week ago. In addition, it definitely fell into the middle of the market participants' forecast of €400-600 billion. But it was precisely this predictability that prevented the EUR/USD pair from turning south.
The hawkish sentiment of Christine Lagarde's statements also supported the European currency. It appears she tried to lower the euro rate by announcing that the ECB is closely monitoring the euro. However, the decision of the regulator not to interfere in the affairs of the foreign exchange markets influenced investors much more than a simple statement about “monitoring the exchange rate”. And the unexpectedly hawkish remark of Ms. Lagarde that if the situation with the Eurozone economy improves enough, it may not be necessary to use all these €500 billion, put the final end to the efforts of the bears to move the pair south.
As a result, having dropped to the level of 1.2060, the pair rushed to the north again, rising to the height of 1.2165, and completed the five-day period in the middle of this range, in the 1.2113 zone, practically in the same place where it started on Monday;

- GBP/USD. The weakening pound has outpaced the weak dollar. The British currency slid down as the threat of a "hard" Brexit becomes more evident. The latest statements by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the head of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen suggest that there will be no real agreement on the terms of Britain's separation from the EU. Johnson advised his citizens to prepare for a "tough" exit, von der Leyen said about the same.
It is worth emphasizing the word "real" here, since some agreement may still be reached, and we will not see the "iron curtain" blocking the tunnel under the Channel. Neither side needs it, much less at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Most likely, the document that will be called the "Agreement", will have many blank spots left, which the parties will start filling in as early as 2021. But such an inferior contract will definitely not benefit the pound. The proof of this is what happened to the GBP/USD pair last week.
From the high of Friday 04 December to the low of Friday 11 December, the pound lost more than 400 points! And this despite the fact that the pair did not follow the EUR/USD in the wake, as it was until recently, but began to live a completely independent life. Having reached the local bottom at 1.3135 on Friday December 11 afternoon, it managed to win back about 90 points by the evening, putting the final chord at the level of 1.3225. However, this bounce may well turn out to be just a small correction in the pair's tendency to the south;

- USD/JPY. Due to the rise in risk sentiment, investors have lost interest in such protective assets as the dollar and the yen. As a result, these currencies reached a temporary truce and moved to a sideways trend. However, the pair never went beyond the medium-term channel, along which it has been smoothly sliding south since the end of March. And, giving a forecast for last week, the vast majority of experts (70%), supported by graphical analysis on D1, suggested that the lateral movement with bearish sentiment dominance would be continued.
In general, everything happened like that. The pair continued to move eastward, gradually reducing the amplitude of oscillations to the range of 103.85-104.55 and forming a medium-term “pennant” figure with the main support around 103.65. As for the end of the trading session, the finish was set at 104.00 this time;

- cryptocurrencies. Financial conglomerate Wells Fargo, one of the "big four" US banks, has published a new investment report, in which a separate page under the heading "Bitcoin - 2020's best performing and most volatile asset" is devoted to the cryptocurrency market. The authors do not directly encourage clients to invest in digital assets, but generally maintain an optimistic tone regarding their prospects. “Over the past 12 years, they have grown from literally nothing to a $560 billion market cap,” writes Wells Fargo. "Hobbies don't usually last 12 years."
The bank notes that bitcoin is up 170% over the year but warns about its high volatility. “Investing in cryptocurrencies today is akin to living in the early days of the 1850s gold rush, which involved more speculation than investing”, the bank's analysts think. And yet they add that cryptocurrencies attract a lot of attention, but not necessarily a lot of investment. (Here the title of William Shakespeare's play immediately comes to mind: "Much Ado About Nothing").
It is difficult to disagree with this: the total cryptocurrency market capitalization now is far from even its own high at the beginning of January 2018, $830 billion. And this is in a world where, according to billionaire Paul Tudor Jones, "there is a $90 trillion stock market, and God knows how many trillions are in fiat currency."
The crypto market went down another $50 billion last week: starting from $575 billion, it dropped to $525 billion. Optimists call the clear bearish trend a seasonal correction and associate it with the end of the year and the desire of investors to fix profits after such an impressive leap up. Recall that the BTC/USD pair was never able to overcome the $20,000 mark. And analysts estimated that it will be able to gain a foothold above this iconic level by the end of December, as 30% probability. The likelihood of its fall to the $15,000-15,700 zone is estimated at the same 30%.
In the meantime, the bears were able to lower quotations to $17,600, and they did it twice: on December 09 and 11. And also twice, at the time of these failures, buyers came to the rescue of bitcoin. However, they did not manage to radically reverse the trend, and as of Friday evening, December 11, bitcoin is trading in the zone of a strong support/resistance level of $18,000.
It should be noted that the Crypto Fear & Greed Index declined very slightly in seven days, from 92 to 89, still signaling the pair BTC/USD is strongly overbought, which could portend an even deeper correction.


continued below...
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  #496  
Old 14-12-2020, 07:36
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As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The dollar is weakening. It has conceded more than 550 points to the European currency in the last month and a half alone. Finally, the pair moved to a sideways movement in the range of 1.2060-1.2165 last week. And although most oscillators (75%) and trend indicators (95%) are still green on D1, the market is waiting for a downward correction.
If you look at the statistics of a number of leading UK brokers, about 65% of their traders hold short positions. 55% of analysts agree with them as well as graphical analysis on H4 and D1, predicting a decline of the pair to the zone 1.1965-1.2010. Both a sharp drop in demand for risky assets and a "hard" Brexit can push it south.
However, given the cautious optimism of the ECB regarding the recovery of the European economy, the improvement of the epidemiological situation in the EU countries and the general weakness of the dollar, many experts believe that the pair will again move north after the correction, to the highs of the 1st quarter of 2018 in the zone of 1.2400-1.2565. Apart from analysts, the possibility of such a scenario is also confirmed by the readings of graphical analysis. And the resistance here is likely to be the round levels 1.2200 and 1.2300.
As for the events of the coming week, it is worth paying attention to the release of data on business activity in Germany and the Eurozone as well as on the US consumer market on Wednesday 16 December. But the most interesting events await us on Thursday 17 December, when, in addition to the US Fed's interest rate decision, the Summary of Economic Forecasts from the Open Markets Committee of the Fed will be published and a press conference of the leadership of this organization will take place.

- GBP/USD. We will have a lot of macro-statistics regarding the UK in the coming week. Data on the labor market of this country will be released on Tuesday, December 15, consumer prices and business activity in the services sector (Markit) will be published the next day, and a meeting of the Bank of England will be held on Thursday, December 17, where decisions will be taken both on the interest rate and on the planned volume of asset purchases. However, all these events pale in front of the threat of a "hard" Brexit. It is precisely what happens at the negotiating table between the UK and the EU that will decide the fate of the pound.
A message should be issued on the state of the negotiation process, either its termination or continuation, on Sunday, December 13. The softest (and most realistic) option would be to extend the current conditions of the transition period for another six months or a year in order to gradually move to rules similar to the basic rules of the World Trade Organization. In this case, although the downward trend of the pair would have continued, it would have been possible to avoid a catastrophic collapse of the British currency. The nearest support level in this case is 1.3100, then 1.3000 and 1.2850.
The second option is the “hardest” Brexit, without any agreements and prolongations, which will lead the pair to fall to the values of mid-May 2020 in the area of 1.2075 or even to the March low at 1.1420.
There is, of course, a third, most improbable, option in which the EU suddenly gives up its positions and completely yields to the British demands. In this case, we will see a rise of the pound first to the height of 1.3500, and then perhaps to the highs of 2018 in the area of 1.4350. Although, we repeat, this outcome is rather from the field of fiction;

- USD/JPY. The yen expects that the market's appetite for risk investments will finally recoil, and it will again turn its attention to the haven currencies. But that's what the dollar awaits too. The chance for the Japanese currency may be a "hard" Brexit, as a result of which investors will start fleeing from the euro and the pound. But what "safe haven" they will give preference to, the dollar or the yen, is another question.
85% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators are still painted red, waiting for a further fall of the pair within the downward medium-term channel, the beginning of which was at the end of March. Supports are 103.65 and 103.15.
But the average forecast of experts is very different from the indicators. 90% of them, supported by the graphical analysis on D1, prefer the dollar and expect that the pair will first rise to the upper boundary of this channel in the area of 104.60, and then, breaking through it, the resistance of 105.00 will be tested. Although, it is entirely possible that before the onset of the new year, 2021, neither bulls nor bears will make sharp movements, and the pair will continue its sideways movement, consolidating in the 104.00 zone;

- cryptocurrencies. So, a correction or a repeat of the collapse of the late 2017-2018? The question is still open.
Bloomberg experts believe that there is no reason for a change in the direction of bitcoin's movement now, and its cost may increase to $50,000 in 2021. “The dollar is gradually losing its position, ducking other fiat currencies,” writes this authoritative agency, “All this is noticed by investors who are forced to switch to alternative assets.” Bitcoin has significantly more support now, which minimizes the likelihood of a pullback. Open interest in the CME bitcoin futures market has exceeded $1 billion for the first time in history, which also speaks of growing support from investors.
A similar point of view is followed by the American billionaire Paul Tudor Jones, head of Tudor Investment Corporation, who said that “cryptocurrencies are facing a crazy flight on a rocket with ascents and descents along the way.” “In 20 years, bitcoin will be significantly higher than the point where it is now. From here, the road for it lies north,” Yahoo! Finance quoted him.
But Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz is less optimistic. In his opinion, bitcoin will certainly not return to zero, but may fall to the $14,000 mark. Therefore, although the losses of investors will not reach 80-90%, they may well be about 30-40%.
The report of the fintech company Cindicator is of great interest. This is due to the fact that the figures presented in it are not the opinion of individual specialists, but the average results of the survey of more than 156,000 participants of the crypto market, according to which bitcoin next year will rise to $29,569. The respondents with the most accurate forecasts, the so-called "superforcasters", on average expect even greater growth, to $32,056. As for the lower bar, according to the average forecast, it is at $15,000. “Superforcasters” are less optimistic and expect a decline to $12,000.
Cindicator's “hybrid intelligence”, which uses machine learning algorithms to process data from a team of analysts, predicts similar values, only in a narrower range. According to its calculations, the BTC rate next year will not exceed $25,222 and will not fall below $16,000. At the same time, the total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market in 2021 with a probability of 80% will surpass the 2018 record of $828 billion.
In addition to institutional investors, additional serious support for the crypto market in 2021 should be provided by countries with troubled economies and those under sanctions. As of now, the SWIFT International Banking System, together with the Financial Crimes Agency (FinCEN) and the Financial Anti-Money Laundering Development Group (FATF), control each international transaction in dollars. Because of this, the countries that have come under the sanctions are deprived of the opportunity for international trade and are literally forced to turn to cryptocurrencies. So, for example, Venezuela, which at first paid in gold, has now switched to settlements for imports with Turkey and Iran in bitcoins. At least this is evidenced by anonymous sources from the Central Bank of this country.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  #497  
Old 16-12-2020, 16:29
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CryptoNews


- The number of bitcoin addresses with a non-zero balance has approached the mark of 33 million, updating the historical maximum, according to the data of the analytical service Glassnode. The number of wallets with a balance of more than 1 BTC is also steadily growing. The indicator has set a new record at 827,105 recently, recovering from a slight recession at the end of September. According to analysts, such an increase in the number of retail cryptocurrency users clearly indicates the massive adoption of bitcoin.

- Also, the “population” of bitcoin whales grew significantly in 2020 and peaked at 2274 at the end of last month. These data were shared by Philip Gradwell, a senior economist at Chainalysis analytics company. Since the beginning of the year, the category “1000 BTC and more” has grown by 302 new wallets. The balances at the respective addresses have increased by 1.4 million BTC during this time.

- Millennials, young people who were born at the turn of the millennium, believe in bitcoin and see it as an asset preparing to replace fiat money. According to Zach Prince, CEO of cryptocurrency startup BlockFi, they will be the ones who will change the industry and popularize cryptocurrencies. “However, I do not think that the dollar or the euro will completely disappear, but cryptocurrencies have every chance to become their full replacement,” he said.
Speaking at the BlockShow conference, Prince also called promising ways to develop the cryptocurrency industry. According to him, decentralized finance should try to establish communication with regulators, but not make full concessions. If we introduce complete regulation of the market, then it will hardly differ from fiat.

- Despite the rise in the price and popularity of bitcoin over the past few months, it is still far from widespread attention. A poll conducted by Opinium and AltFi asked 2,000 UK adults how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected their financial situation. The majority said they turned to digital investment having refrained from investing in physical assets. However, only 10% of this sample (or 200 people) specified that they bought cryptocurrencies.
Despite the fact that this percentage is relatively small, the results of 2020 can be regarded as an undeniable improvement: the figure was half as low, 5.3%, a year ago.

- US billionaire Ray Dalio admitted that the criticism of cryptocurrencies that had been heard from him earlier was unfounded. "Bitcoin is well suited for portfolio diversification," said the billionaire. “I would advise having cryptocurrencies among the assets, at least as an experiment. When it comes to comparing bitcoin to gold, I prefer to keep those assets that are important to the global economic system." Earlier, Dalio said that bitcoin can complement gold thanks to an expanded list of options that are available to cryptocurrency investors. A coin backed by the precious metal could be the best investment on the market, he said.

- European electricity supplier CEZ Group has uncovered the largest theft in its history. Together with the police, the company's specialists discovered equipment for the extraction of cryptocurrencies illegally connected to the power grids in one of the outbuildings in the Bulgarian village of Kherakovo. The inspection began due to the abnormal high consumption of electricity in the area. As a result of searches, law enforcement officers seized more than 1,000 mining units. Preliminary estimates suggest the stolen electricity was equivalent to a monthly consumption of 4,250 families.

- Bestselling Rich Dad Poor Dad author and entrepreneur Robert Kiyosaki has reiterated his call to buy bitcoin before it surpasses $20,000. He is convinced that the cryptocurrency will continue to grow to $50,000 next year amid the influx of money from institutions. The entrepreneur says that “America is in trouble” and preclude the “death” of the US dollar and a “bright future” for gold, silver, bitcoin and entrepreneurs.

- The well-known Dutch cryptanalyst PlanB, who developed the popular BTC stock-to-flow valuation model, believes that the price of the reference cryptocurrency may rise to $100,000 by the end of 2021, and maybe up to $300,000. PlanB admits that his outlook sounds extremely optimistic and even somewhat amusing for some investors. However, the rise in the price of bitcoin in the past allows him to make such predictions.

- Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin says that he sold part of the reserves of the first cryptocurrency back in 2013. He said he had “only a few thousand dollars of net equity” before Ethereum was created. “However, I sold half of my bitcoins to be sure I would not break up if the rate fell to zero,” he writes. This admission was accompanied by Buterin's call not to get into debt or take out loans to buy any digital assets.

- According to analysts of financial conglomerate JPMorgan Chase, institutional investors can invest up to $600 billion in the first cryptocurrency in the coming years. This requires American, European and Japanese insurance companies and pension funds to invest only 1% of their assets in bitcoin.
As JPMorgan lead strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou noted, the recent $100 million investment by Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Company marks another milestone in the adoption of the first cryptocurrency by such organizations. At the same time, the analyst admits that it is quite difficult for such traditional investors to invest in cryptocurrency, since there are still regulatory requirements for the choice of investment assets in terms of risks and fulfillment of obligations. This can limit the amount of funds available for buying BTC.
In early December, JPMorgan Payments Manager Takis Georgakopoulos said the bank has become more loyal to bitcoin and is ready to contribute to the development of the cryptocurrency industry.


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  #498  
Old 18-12-2020, 13:06
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Stock Trading Is Now Available on Fix, Pro and Zero Accounts


The line of the brokerage company NordFX trading accounts was supplemented by the new Stocks account last December, intended for transactions involving the shares of the world's largest companies. Due to favorable trading conditions, this account has gained considerable popularity over the past time, and therefore it has been decided to include CFD trading of shares in the list of trading instruments on the Fix, Pro and Zero accounts.


Now the company's clients do not need to open a separate account for these operations, since the trading terms and contract specifications on the Fix, Pro and Zero accounts will be exactly the same as they were on the Stocks account.

Trading on the Stocks account will be discontinued. At the same time, previously opened trade orders remain in effect until the client decides to complete these transactions.


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  #499  
Old 20-12-2020, 06:56
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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for December 21 - 25, 2020


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, the most popular strategy in the market after “buy shares” is “sell the dollar”. Speculative short positions in this currency have risen to a two-year high. The USD index (DXY) has fallen below 90, while it was at 102.82 on March 15, 2020. As for the retreat of the dollar in recent days, it is taking place against the background of the discussion in the US Congress of an additional package of fiscal stimuli. After all, every new dollar poured into the country's economy will lead to a decrease in its purchasing power.
The Federal Reserve meeting held on Thursday, December 17 had virtually no effect on market sentiment. The interest rate remained at the same level, and, one might say, a blissful pre-Christmas mood prevailed at the press conference: nothing new was said about the prospects for further quantitative easing and no worries about the current state of the economy were voiced. Although, perhaps, such passivity was caused not only by Christmas, but also by the change of the US President. The new owner has not yet settled in the White House. And the old one is already a duck lame on both legs.
True, thanks to the hopes of investors for the future growth of the S&P500 and for a positive outcome of the Brexit negotiations, the EUR/USD pair still continued its movement northward, adding about 140 points in a week. As for the final chord, it sounded at the height of 1.2250;

- GBP/USD. With the weakening USD and hopes that the Brexit talks will succeed at the last moment, the pair continues to push higher. At the week's high, December 17, it reached 1.3625, showing a gain of as much as 400 points. However, then a correction followed, and it completed the five-day period just below the level of 1.3500.
Belief in the deal is fueled by media reports that the fishing problem in British waters remains the last hurdle. The markets were encouraged by the statements of the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, who said that there is a "narrow path" to the agreement, as well as European Commissioner for Internal Trade Michel Barnier, who confirmed that "the possibility of a trade agreement remains."
Britain also seems to agree to the deal, but, as it was stated, "not at the cost of sovereignty, and control should include the sea as well." Prime Minister Boris Johnson has threatened to keep European fishermen out of British waters for at least eight years if his three years quota fishing proposal is not accepted.
In general, Hamlet's question “To be or not to be?”, which has been sounding for 420 years, as applied to Brexit, is still open;

- USD/JPY. The yen is stable, US Treasuries remain in the same trading range, the dollar is weakening, the USD (DXY) index is falling. All this allows the USD/JPY pair to continue its smooth descent within the downstream medium-term channel, which began at the end of last March. On Thursday December 17, it reached the midline of this channel, fixing a weekly low at 102.85. The last point in the five-day period was set at 103.30;

- cryptocurrencies. What has been expected from bitcoin for three whole years has come true. It not only renewed the all-time high, not only broke through the $20,000 level, but also soared in a short period from December 12 to 17 from $18,000 to $23,620, adding more than 30%.
If we compare the rallies in December 2017 and December 2020, the main difference between them, according to many experts, is that in the first case, the main driving force was retail investors, but now it is institutional. According to the analytical company Chainalysis, the "population" of bitcoin whales (1000 BTC and more) has been expanded with 302 new wallets since the beginning of the year and peaked at 2274 at the end of last month, and balances at the corresponding addresses increased by 1.4 million BTC during this time.
To be fair, it should be noted that the number of retail users is also growing. The number of bitcoin addresses with a non-zero balance has approached the mark of 33 million, updating the historical maximum, according to the data of the analytical service Glassnode. The number of wallets with a balance of more than 1 BTC is also steadily growing. The indicator has set a new record at 827,105 recently, recovering from a slight recession at the end of September.
Of course, we have written about this many times, the coronavirus pandemic contributed to the popularization of bitcoin. However, it is probably early to talk about the mass acceptance of cryptocurrencies by the population. So, in a survey conducted by Opinium and AltFi among UK residents, only 10% said they bought a cryptocurrency. And although the results of 2020 can be viewed as an undoubted improvement - a year ago the figure was half as much, 5.3% - it is still a very small percentage, which leaves significant potential for growth in the crypto market, the total capitalization of which reached $670 billion on December 17.
It should be noted that despite the fact that BTC/USD quotes have already by far exceeded the high of 2017, the capitalization has not reached its record value of $830 billion, recorded on 07 January 2018. That is, the rise in the value of bitcoin is fueled by significantly smaller amounts of fiat than before, which may indicate the pair is strongly overbought. This is evidenced by the values of the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which rose again in seven days from 89 to 95 and is very close to the maximum value of 100 points. But while waiting for a correction, one should take into account that the end of the year is now, the Christmas holidays are coming, and the most unexpected things can happen on the thin market - from zero volatility to new spikes to the north;


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Next week on Thursday, December 24, Forex trading will end at 17:00 CET, and there will be no trading at all on December 25, Christmas. (please visit the NordFX website, the Company News section for details on the trading schedule during the Christmas and New Year holidays in the currency and cryptocurrency markets, as well as on CFD contracts).
The end of the year is a period when big players close their positions, sum up and go on vacation. But it is at this point of low liquidity in the market, as already mentioned above, that traders need to be prepared for sudden surprises. And it is not necessary that they will be as pleasant as gifts from Santa Claus. The main surprise may be the agreement between the EU and the UK on the Brexit terms (or lack thereof).
At the time of this writing, 95% of the trend indicators on H4 and 100% on D1 are green. Also, 75% of oscillators on both timeframes look up. However, the remaining 25% signals that the pair is overbought, and a correction is possible.
Graphical analysis on H4 predicts the movement of the pair in the trading range of 1.2175-1.2300, and D1 indicates the possibility of its growth to the height of 1.2355. 80% of experts support this development. The remaining 20% expect the pair to decline to support 1.2100, and in the transition from weekly to monthly forecast, the number of bear supporters increases to 65%. Closest supports are at 1.2055 and 1.1900 levels.

- GBP/USD. As we wrote last week, there are three possible options regarding Brexit.
1 - neutral soft. It is a decision to extend the current terms of the transition period for another six months or a year in order to gradually move to rules similar to the basic rules of the World Trade Organization. In this case, a catastrophic collapse of the pound would be avoided, although the pair would go south. The nearest support level in this case is 1.3275, then 1.3100, 1.3000 and 1.2850.
2 - the “hardest” Brexit, without any agreements or prolongations, which will lead the pair to fall first to the 1.2700 horizon, and over time, possibly to the lows of May 2020. in the area of 1.2075-1.2160.
3 - the conclusion of a full-scale deal between the EU and the UK. In this case, we will see a rise of the pound first to the height of 1.3500, and then perhaps to the highs of 2018 in the area of 1.4350.
We will know soon which of these options will be chosen;

- USD/JPY. 90% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators on D1 are still colored red, expecting further decline in the pair within the descending medium-term channel. As for analysts, they, supported by graphical analysis on H4 and D1, they consider most likely the pair to move in the trading range 102.70-104.00, that is, between the central and upper boundaries of the designated channel;

- cryptocurrencies. So, is it worth waiting for a repeat of the "crypto winter" of late 2017 - 2018? Or, after a slight correction, the BTC/USD pair will again rush to new heights?
Bestselling author of Rich Dad Poor Dad and entrepreneur Robert Kiyosaki is convinced that cryptocurrency will continue to rise to $50,000 next year amid further influx of institutional money. The entrepreneur, having said that “America is in trouble”, precludes the “death” of the US dollar and a “bright future” for gold, silver, bitcoin.
The well-known Dutch cryptanalyst PlanB, who developed the popular BTC stock-to-flow valuation model, believes that the price of the reference cryptocurrency may rise to $100,000 by the end of 2021, and maybe up to $300,000. PlanB admits that his outlook sounds extremely optimistic and even somewhat amusing for some investors. However, the rise in the price of bitcoin in the past allows him to make such predictions.
According to analysts from the financial conglomerate JPMorgan Chase, institutional investors can invest up to $600 billion in the first cryptocurrency in the coming years. This requires that American, European and Japanese insurance companies and pension funds invest only 1% of their assets in bitcoin.
As JPMorgan lead strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou noted, the recent $100 million investment by Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Company marks another milestone in the adoption of the first cryptocurrency by such organizations. At the same time, the analyst admits that it is quite difficult for such traditional investors to invest in cryptocurrency, since there are still regulatory requirements for the choice of investment assets in terms of risks and fulfillment of obligations. This can limit the amount of funds available for buying BTC.
In general, the topic of the attitude of government regulators to cryptocurrencies is one of the key factors for the development of this market. This issue has been actively discussed at the recent BlockShow conference. The speakers said that although decentralized finance needs to communicate with regulators, it cannot be full concessions to them. If we introduce complete regulation of the market, then it will hardly differ from fiat.
Now about the prospects of the BTC/USD pair for the next few weeks. According to the average forecast, the probability of its rise to $25,000-26,000 is estimated at 30%, above $30,000 - 10%. As for the fall, the probability that the pair will decrease to the $18.500-20,000 zone is 20%.
As for altcoins, those who at this stage are wary of investing in bitcoin may pay attention to ethereum. If BTC has already exceeded its 2017 high by 16%, then ETH is still to grow from its current values in the region of $670 to its all-time high of $1,420. And this despite the fact that this main altcoin showed better dynamics than bitcoin this year: it has added 640% from the March low against 465% for BTC.
In addition, altcoin blockchain No.1 has recently been updated. Ethereum 2.0 has made the cryptocurrency safer, more efficient, scalable and, hopefully, potentially more profitable.
And here it is necessary to recall the recent warning of the co-founder of ethereum Vitalik Buterin, who urged not to get into debt or take out loans to buy any digital assets, be it bitcoin, ethereum or any other coins. He said he had “only a few thousand dollars of net equity” before Ethereum was created. “However, I sold half of my bitcoins to be sure I would not break up if the rate fell to zero,” he writes.


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Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  #500  
Old 23-12-2020, 16:00
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CryptoNews


- Matt Maley, strategist at financial services firm Miller Tabak, believes the cryptocurrency market will face a major setback next year. According to him, the main coin may fall in price by about 25-30 percent in the first months of 2021
Bitcoin's capitalization currently stands at approximately $441 billion. According to Maley, the market is overheated due to large-scale investments, which is why corrections by one or several thousand dollars may become a norm next year.
“I consider cryptocurrencies to be a promising asset, but the minimum correction size next year will be 10%. At the same time, the fall may be at the level of 30% or even more. Therefore, it is worth being prudent before large-scale investments,” the specialist warns.

- Popular analyst and founder of Quantum Economics, Mati Greenspan, expressed an opposite view. In his opinion, the December rise does not mean that the market is "overheated", and a large-scale collapse awaits us. “We are at the very beginning of the period of massive entry of investors into the crypto sphere. This phase of the industry's development is qualitatively different from the rise and fall phases of 2017 and 2018. If demand continues to rise from current levels, and supply is constrained, then there is a possibility that we will see growth of 250% or more."
At the same time, Mati Greenspan excludes a scenario in which BTC will soar to $400,000. “The rally will certainly continue, but there is no need to talk about any astronomical figures yet,” the analyst summed up.

- 190 computers were stolen from the NATO military airbase in Emari (Estonia), which were illegally used to extract cryptocurrency. The Estonian Ministry of Defense reported that mining on the territory of the base was carried out by a certain employee who had access to classified documents. He worked for NATO for 14 years, after which he quit and decided to take the equipment with him. He took out the first computers from the base back in 2015, providing documents on their write-off. The remaining several dozen devices on the territory of Emari were networked and used for mining. In total, this "specialist" was able to mine cryptocurrencies worth 30,000 euros. The Ministry of Defense clarified that about 60% of these earnings would have gone to pay for electricity, but the attacker was using state resources.

- According to the analytical service Glassnode, the number of addresses with cryptocurrency worth more than $1,000,000 has reached 66,500. The increase in the second decade of December alone was about 150%. Analysts noted that some miners have not withdrawn funds from their wallets since the time when one pizza cost several hundred bitcoins. Now they have become dollar millionaires.

- Tesla and SpaceX founder Elon Musk once again spoke on Twitter regarding cryptocurrencies. There, he again confessed his love for Dogecoin and posted a frivolous picture, comparing bitcoin to fiat money and considering it "the same crap."
Recall that in 2019, Musk became the winner of a comic April Fools' poll, in which users were asked to vote for the most suitable candidate for the position of Dogecoin CEO. And last July, Musk spoke on Twitter about the prospect of using Dogecoin technology as a global financial system. After his tweet, the price of the token went up 17%.

- The legendary bitcoin meme HODL is seven years old. It was first used by a user under the nickname GameKyuubi in his post on the BitcoinTalk forum, who later became known as Mr.HODL. On December 18, 2013, being a little drunk by his own admission, he wrote that as a bad trader he prefers to “hodl” so as not to incur financial losses.
“I typed the title twice because I made a mistake the first time. Still a mistake. A girlfriend is stuck in a lesbian bar, bitcoin is falling, so why do I hold? I'll tell you why. Because I'm a bad trader and I know it. Yes, of course, you good traders can see the highs and lows and playfully make a million dollars,” GameKyuubi wrote at the time.
On that day Bitcoin fell in price by almost 40%, GameKyuubi tried to simultaneously talk to his girlfriend and trade bitcoin through a heavily lagging app. After several failed attempts, he went to his room and started drinking.
Hodl, Hodler, is an Internet meme, a slang name for those who buy cryptocurrencies and hold them (do not sell) regardless of the market situation. For the first time, this variant of the spelling appeared as a typo in the word holding.

- MicroStrategy, a mobile software company, announced the completion of the last stage of the allocation of reserve assets, during which it invested $650 million raised from investors into 29.646 BTC at an average of $21.925 per coin.
It now owns almost 70,470 bitcoins in total, having spent $1.125 billion at an average price of $15.964 per bitcoin.
The $650 million raised in December was raised through the sale of convertible bonds with a maturity of five years. “The purchase of additional coins confirms our confidence in bitcoin as the most widely used cryptocurrency and a reliable store of value,” said Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy.

- Mill Hill Books has released a 340-page book, Kicking the Hornet's Nest, containing all emails, forum posts, and other entries by the anonymous bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto. All entries are collected in chronological order and, according to the publishers, have been published "with almost no editorial comment." The printed version of the edition sells for $29, and it can also be purchased on Amazon.

- Scott Minerd, investment director of Guggenheim Investments, considers bitcoin to be a grossly undervalued asset, even at current price levels of around $23,000. “Our fundamental work shows that bitcoin should be worth about $400,000,” he said in a conversation with Bloomberg TV.
Analysts at Guggenheim Investments came to this conclusion based on two factors: the limited emission of bitcoin and its value relative to gold. There are many common characteristics that cryptocurrency shares with the precious metal, Minerd said, but bitcoin, unlike gold, "has extraordinary value in the context of transactions."
At the same time, Minerd noted that buying bitcoin above $20,000 seems to him "a little more problematic." His company began investing in bitcoin at a rate of about $10,000.


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  #501  
Old 25-12-2020, 08:05
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Happy New Year, 2021!


Dear clients and partners! We extend our warmest congratulations on the upcoming holidays.

The outgoing 2020 turned out to be not the easiest one for most of us, requiring resilience, a lot of effort and energy. It has been a difficult time, but we are confident that together we can overcome any difficulties.

Let the coming year be the year of new joint victories and achievements. Let all adversity and troubles remain behind us, and only prosperity and success lie ahead.

Let all your hopes and dreams come true in the new year. We wish you and all your loved ones good health, prosperity, endless joyful smiles, and optimism!

Happy New Year!

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  #502  
Old 27-12-2020, 11:17
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Forecast 2021: Is Bitcoin Worth Investing In?


Is it the "gold of the XXI century" or a soap bubble about to burst? We have repeatedly discussed the advantages and disadvantages of bitcoin over the past year, and analyzed the reasons for its ups and downs. Therefore, we decided to cite only the opinions of experts regarding the prospects for the main cryptocurrency in this review.
You may decide to be patient and invest in bitcoin for a long-term profitability. Or, on the contrary, you do not want to take risks and prefer to forget this word altogether. In general, the decision to buy, sell bitcoin or simply do nothing is always yours.


Optimists' predictions: Only to the North!

1. Bestselling author of Rich Dad Poor Dad and entrepreneur Robert Kiyosaki is convinced that cryptocurrency will continue to rise to $50,000 next year amid further influx of institutional money. The entrepreneur, having said that “America is in trouble”, precludes the “death” of the US dollar and a “bright future” for gold, silver, bitcoin.
“Bitcoin's rise has outpaced gold and silver,” he wrote. - What does it mean? This means that you need to buy as much bitcoin and precious metal as you can and don't put it off. The train is already leaving. The dollar is dying. When the dollar falls, the price doesn't matter anymore. What matters is how much gold, silver and bitcoins you have.”

2. According to analysts at the JPMorgan Chase banking holding, bitcoin outperforms gold as an alternative currency and has a significantly better chance of continued growth. According to their report, the capitalization of the crypto market is not large enough yet. JPMorgan estimates that the physical gold market, including ETF backed by it, is $2.6 trillion. Bitcoin needs to hit the $130,000 mark to catch up with the precious metal in this respect.
According to JPMorgan Chase, institutional investors can invest up to $600 billion in the first cryptocurrency in the coming years. This requires American, European and Japanese insurance companies and pension funds to invest only 1% of their assets in bitcoin. However, at the moment there are still regulatory requirements for the selection of investment assets in terms of risks and performance of obligations for such traditional investors. This can limit the amount of funds available for buying BTC.

3. The well-known Dutch cryptanalyst PlanB, who developed the popular BTC stock-to-flow valuation model, believes that the price of the reference cryptocurrency may rise to $100,000 by the end of 2021, and maybe up to $300,000. PlanB admits his forecast sounds extremely optimistic. However, the rise in the price of bitcoin in the past allows him to make such predictions.
The expert notes that during periods of market corrections, the algorithms of bitcoin whales pick up hundreds of portions of 0.01 BTC from "weak hands". Later these coins “disappear” in “deep” cold vaults. This leads to a supply shock and triggers a bull market.

4. Scott Minerd, investment director of Guggenheim Investments, considers bitcoin to be a grossly undervalued asset, even at current price levels of around $23,000. “Our fundamental work shows that bitcoin should be worth about $400,000,” he said in a conversation with Bloomberg TV.
Analysts at Guggenheim Investments came to this conclusion based on two factors: the limited emission of bitcoin and its value relative to gold. There are many common characteristics that cryptocurrency shares with the precious metal, Minerd said, but bitcoin, unlike gold, "has extraordinary value in the context of transactions."

5. Popular analyst and founder of Quantum Economics Mati Greenspan believes that “we are at the very beginning of a period of mass investor entry into the cryptosphere. If demand continues to rise and supply is constrained, then there is a possibility that we will see growth of 250% or more." At the same time, Mati Greenspan excludes a scenario in which BTC will soar to $400,000. “The rally will certainly continue, but there is no need to talk about any astronomical figures yet,” the analyst sums up. He believes that, unlike in 2017, the market is now controlled not by speculators but by corporations and large investors interested in its stability. The entry of these large players leads to the fact that volatility will weaken, and this area will become more attractive.

6. Bloomberg experts believe that there is no reason for a change in the direction of bitcoin's movement now, and its cost may increase to $50,000 in 2021. “The dollar is gradually losing its position, ducking other fiat currencies,” writes this authoritative agency, “All this is noticed by investors who are forced to switch to alternative assets.” Bitcoin has significantly more support now, which minimizes the likelihood of a pullback. Open interest in the CME bitcoin futures market has exceeded $1 billion for the first time in history, which also speaks of growing support from investors.
Looking into the longer term, Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone has suggested that within 5 years the price of the main cryptocurrency could exceed $100,000.

7. A similar point of view is followed by the American billionaire Paul Tudor Jones, head of Tudor Investment Corporation, who said that “cryptocurrencies are facing a crazy flight on a rocket with ascents and descents along the way.” “In 20 years, bitcoin will be significantly higher than the point where it is now. From here, the road for it lies north,” Yahoo! Finance quoted him.

8. The report of the fintech company Cindicator is of great interest. This is due to the fact that the figures presented in it are not the opinion of individual specialists, but the average results of the survey of more than 156,000 participants of the crypto market, according to which bitcoin next year will rise to $29,569. The respondents with the most accurate forecasts, the so-called "superforcasters", expect even greater growth on average, to $32,056.
According to the calculations of the “Hybrid Intelligence” Cindicator, which uses machine learning algorithms to process data from a team of analysts, the BTC rate next year will not exceed $25,222.

9. According to Mike Novogratz, head of the Galaxy Digital crypto trading bank, everyone should invest 2-3% of their funds in bitcoin. “After that, it is enough to wait a little time, and you will be surprised, but cryptocurrencies will cost significantly more. If you wait for five years, the assets will multiply several times,” he wrote.

10. According to experts of Stack Funds, bitcoin is ready to rise to a new high of $86,000.

11. The Director General of Global Macro Investor Raoul Pal expects that even conservative institutional investors, who usually prefer precious metals, will start investing in bitcoin next year. Therefore, Pal made a bold assumption that the rate of the first cryptocurrency could reach $250,000 in a year and placed an order for the sale of all the gold he had in order to invest in BTC and ETH in the ratio 80 to 20.

12. Even more inspiring forecast was given by Gemini crypto exchange founder Tyler Winklevoss, one of the twin brothers who are called the first cryptocurrency billionaires. He said on CNBC that the value of bitcoin could exceed the $500,000 mark.
"The question isn't whether bitcoin will cost $500,000 or not, the question is how quickly it will happen. In fact, even this assessment seems to me very conservative - the game has not really even started," said Tyler's brother Cameron Winklevoss.

13. A similar figure is also called by a member of the Board of Directors of the Bitcoin Foundation Bobby Lee, according to whom the price of the main coin can reach $500,000 by the year 2028.

14. According to experts from one of the shareholders of Tesla, the ARK Invest fund, the capitalization of bitcoin may exceed $5 trillion. This will take the coin up to 10 years, but massive investments can start earlier. This figure could reach $1 trillion in the next 5 years, after which growth will occur at a faster rate.

15. A forecast was presented by Tom Fitzpatrick, Managing Director of one of the largest banks in the world, Citibank. According to him, thanks to consolidation in the status of digital gold, the rate of the first cryptocurrency can reach $318,000 by the end of 2021.
In his new report, Bitcoin: Gold for the 21st Century, Fitzpatrick writes: "Bitcoin moved in the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, when new changes in the monetary regime took place and we dropped to zero interest rates." And further he concludes that currently, financial stimulus measures against the background of the coronavirus pandemic have led to the formation of conditions similar to the 1970s, when the dollar inflation led to the increased demand for gold.

16. Popular TV presenter and Wall-Street veteran Max Kaiser believes that at current levels, bitcoin futures traders are suppressing the price of BTC to give institutional players a chance to "load the boat." However, once the asset reaches the $28,000 mark (the intermediate benchmark set by Kaiser), the number of coins for sale will go zero, and thanks to the deficit, their price will burst up to the cosmic heights.
“For the poor of this world, the current price and availability of BTC,” says Kaiser, “is the only opportunity in life to purchase non-forfeitable hard money before the price of it rises to 40-80 times, and prices will soar to the level of golden parity at around $400,000.”
“The demand for bitcoin is growing almost exponentially,” he says, “while its supply is mathematically fixed at 900 coins per day. And in 2024, the supply will be halved to 450 BTC per day. That's why I think people simply won't have the opportunity to buy coins, since the price can soar even to $1,000,000 per BTC. Meanwhile, Gen Z, who bought a lot of bitcoins when they were under $100, will become the new global power elite. The world order is about to change...”


Pessimists' Predictions: A Fly in the Ointment

1. Despite the optimism in general, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz believes that bitcoin instability can be expected in the near future. Its price in 2021 will certainly not return to zero, but could fall to the $14,000mark, or even $12,000. Although a correction to such levels is unlikely, investors need to be prepared for losses of 30-40%.

2. According to the average forecast of fintech company Cindicator, the lower bar of the trading range for the BTC/USD pair in 2021 will be at the level of $15,000. “Superforcasters” are less optimistic and expect a decrease to $12,000, and according to the calculations of “Hybrid Intelligence” Cindicator, the bitcoin rate will not go down next year below $16,000.

3. Matt Maley, strategist at financial services firm Miller Tabak, believes the cryptocurrency market will face a major setback next year. According to him, the main coin may fall in price by about 25-30 percent in the first months of 2021. According to Maley, the market is overheated due to large-scale investments, which is why corrections by one or several thousand dollars may become a norm.
“I consider cryptocurrencies to be a promising asset, but the minimum correction size next year will be 10%. At the same time, the fall may be at the level of 30% or even more. Therefore, it is worth being prudent before large-scale investments,” the specialist warns.



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Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  #503  
Old 29-12-2020, 14:24
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Support and Resistance Levels: Types, Methods of Construction, Usage Cases


Technical analysis in the Forex market provides a wide range of opportunities to study and predict prices. The number of instruments that are capable of solving the tasks set by the trader is hundreds. If the indicators are justifiably amenable to criticism for signal lagging, the levels of support and resistance find their admirers even among people most skeptical towards technical analysis. This is not surprising. Forex levels are a benchmark that all traders, without exception, pay attention to.

Levels are abnormal zones on the price chart, near which there are sharp changes in the dynamics of quotations. Thus, when the price approaches the levels, there is a noticeable response: bounces, reversals, breakouts, acceleration or deceleration of quotes . Since this happens with enviable consistency, the trader has the opportunity to create trading strategies based on such levels. Trading with their help becomes active, impulsive and allows you to fix a good profit in a short time frame.

The Reason Why Markup is Effective

Trading in the financial markets is carried out using a huge number of instruments. However, there are only two key areas in the analysis - technical and fundamental. Textbooks on them are written and regularly published in all languages of the world. This creates a unified learning base for all traders and investors. Therefore, guided by a similar algorithm of actions, the vast majority of traders will, like you, see Forex levels and push quotes in their direction.

In addition to the same algorithm of actions, do not forget about the convenience of calculations. For example, when a trader chooses a place to place Stop Loss , it is easier for them to focus on round levels. This is convenient, because in the heat of active trading there is no time for the perfect calculation of points - everything is rounded one way or another.

The third argument is monetary policy. Each head of the Central Bank and the government sets a price corridor, which is the basis of the budget. Out-of-bounds always result in the intervention of the regulator.

Types of Levels and Their Differences

There are many ways to calculate levels, and as a result, their types. If we generalize them conditionally, we can distinguish the following main groups: horizontal, sloping, dynamic. The key difference between them is in the way they are built, and the number of elements required for this.

Ways to Build Horizontal Levels

To do the markup, your trading platform must have drawing tools. Broker NordFX offers its clients to use the world's most popular platform - MetaTrader 4 (MT4). Its graphical toolkit, among other things, includes horizontal lines.

Resistance and support are built on historical points where rebounds have occurred more than once in the past. The support level is drawn through local lows, and the resistance level is drawn through local highs.

For many, the debatable question is at what prices to draw the line. There is no basic difference. The level is marked both by the body of the candle and by its shadow. There is a concept of a zone, so a deviation of several points is the norm. Moreover, the higher the timeframe, the wider this zone will be.

An example of how horizontal Forex levels are marked in Fig. 1:

Sloping levels

These levels are no different from the previous ones, as far as their impact on price is concerned. The main difference is the angle of the lines. They are drawn at local lows/highs and completely depend on the direction of the trend. The main rule when applying is that the price should bounce. Two points are enough to draw this level. This is a simple geometric rule for drawing line segments.

In literature, they are also called the trend line. If you draw such lines parallel to each other, you can identify price channels. An example of one of them can be seen below in Fig. 2:

They are used for only one purpose - to find the entry point. It is difficult to set price targets according to them. By the way, when working with sloping levels, the extremes should be consistent, namely, above each other (for an upward market) or below (for a downward one).

Dynamic

In the classical understanding, levels are manual markup. However, progress has gone far from the textbooks of the 80s and 90s of the last century. In addition to markup, indicator techniques are gaining popularity: Moving Average, Envelopes, Donchian Channel, Bollinger Bands.

Their main feature is that they are volatile and are rearranged following the price. This is both their strength and weakness.

The principles of building the horizontal and dynamic level are different, but the properties and principles of use are the same. As an example (Fig. 3), we propose to study the most famous of them, Moving Average, and working it out as a level:

The Difference Between Support and Resistance

Beginners sometimes find it difficult to clearly define what support is, and mistakenly call it resistance, and vice versa. They have the same properties in terms of trade practice. Quotes bounce off them, and accelerate sharply after the breakout. However, the difference still exists: it is the position of the price relative to the level.

Support is the level that the price relies on during its movement. It connects important lows and occurs when traders can no longer, or do not want to sell this financial instrument at lower prices. Resistance, on the other hand, is a level that connects important highs (tops) of the market and stands in the way of growth, preventing the price from going up.

In both cases, it is important in what trend the markup is considered. They can change places during a breakout. An example of how support turns into resistance is shown below (Figure 4):

How to Build Forex Support and Resistance Levels

You can build levels on charts of any timeframe in different ways. Professionals often and quickly do this manually using the auxiliary charting tools built into the MT4 terminal. However, it is difficult for beginners to find extremes. To simplify their detection, auxiliary indicators such as, for example, Fractals or ZigZag are used, which automatically highlight local lows/highs.

Pivot, Murray, Fibonacci formulas are also used to calculate support and resistance levels. They are implemented as separate user indicators. It should be noted that there are many other indicators that apply all types of markup without your involvement. Many of them are already integrated into MetaTrader 4, making market analysis much easier.

How Levels Are Used in a Trading Strategy

Patterns in price movements near support or resistance make it possible to use them for different purposes. One of the most important purposes in developing a trading strategy is the signal function. Trading in this case occurs both on a rebound from the level, and on its breakdown. There is also a mixed type of trading, which includes other signals for opening or closing positions as well.

The ways of trading at levels can be very different. Conservative trading , advocated by many textbook authors, involves working in the direction of the trend, while aggressive trading involves opening positions in both directions or against the trend. Each technique has a right to exist, but one should consider how strong the level is. The probability of a breakout of a strong level is extremely low, so rebounds are practiced in this case. Weak levels , which have only a couple of touches, are overcome by the price like a knife in butter. Therefore, the probability of a breakdown of a weak level is quite high. Although false breakouts often occur on Forex - cases when the price seems to have already overcome the support or resistance zone, but instead of going further, it turns back and returns to its previous positions.

At moments when the strength of traders playing to raise and lower the price is roughly equal, there can be price consolidation. If you see that the price is being squeezed like a spring - consolidation is there for you. And we can expect that at some point this spring will be open, which will lead to the appearance of a sharp impulse in the change in quotes and an increase in volatility.

Setting Stop Loss and Take Profit

According to many traders, a trading strategy without using Stop Loss is a time bomb. Beginners find it difficult to choose where to place it on the chart, because there is a possibility that the price will accidentally hook it. And it is very disappointing to see how your order closes with a loss by Stop Loss, after which the price will reverse and go in a direction that is profitable for you. That is why it is customary to place Stop Loss beyond the nearest level at a distance of several points from it. Recall that this distance depends on the timeframe you are working on. The higher the timeframe, the greater that distance must be. Thus, on the H4 time frame and above it is measured by dozens of points, forming not a line, but a support/resistance zone. It may also depend on the selected Forex currency pair, as well as the current volatility of the market.

Also, in addition to Stop Loss, levels are used to solve one more task - to determine a price target for profit fixing. Take Profit at the opened trade is placed on a similar principle, which is described above. However, it is put on the open order direction, rather than against it. And here, again, the concept of a zone must be taken into account, because just as the price can slip several points beyond the level (false breakout), the same few points will not reach it.

A huge number of trading strategies have been created at the support and resistance levels of Forex, the effectiveness of which is also influenced by a number of other factors. This is the accuracy of quotes, the size of spreads, the speed of execution of trades, etc. And here NordFX clients have an obvious advantage, since the trading conditions provided by this broker are among the best on the market.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Working on Forex support and resistance levels has a number of advantages and disadvantages. The cons of their use are as follows:
- The presence of false breakdowns;
- The presence of slippage (backlash), which turns a thin line into a support/resistance zone, the width of which depends on many factors: the currency pair being traded, the time frame and the current market situation. All this makes it difficult to set orders and to open and close a trading position.

The strengths of the levels are as follows:
- They have a lot of information about the dynamics of the market;
- They allow you to define the price corridor, the market entry and exit points;
- They are applicable on any timeframe and for any trading instrument;
- There are many charting tools and indicators that automatically determine these levels. Many of them are already integrated into the MT4 terminal;
- A huge number of ready-made solutions -* scripts and robot advisors that allow you to conduct semi-automatic and fully automatic trading using data levels;
- Ability to include in any trading strategy;
- A large number of signals are generated on each timeframe.

Only practice can teach you how to use support and resistance levels effectively. And in order for you to gain the necessary experience without any financial costs, we recommend using a demo account of the NordFX brokerage company. It can be opened for free, and registration will take no more than a couple of minutes of your time.


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Old 30-12-2020, 16:06
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CryptoNews


- Many experts agree that the value of bitcoin may reach $30,000 in the very near future. According to experts, the reason for this is the increased activity of "whales", who continue to make impressive investments in the cryptocurrency industry.
Experts from the analytical company CryptoQuant say that large investors are trying to keep funds in hardware wallets or distribute them between different platforms. The head of CryptoQuant, Ki-Young Joo, noted that this practice is being applied in the stock markets in anticipation of a major breakthrough. “I think that after the spurt [up to $ 30,000] there will be a pullback, the scale of which is very difficult to predict,” says Ki-Young Joo.
According to Vijay Ayyar, one of the top managers of the Luno crypto exchange, such a correction will be no more than 15%, after which bitcoin will face another growth.

- Investor Dennis Hartman, also known as the "king of assets", said in an interview with Bloomberg that bitcoin could become the so-called "millennial gold." According to the specialist, he does not support cryptocurrency assets, however, he considers them to be the main prospect for the future.
According to the financier, central banks around the world will increase their control over digital currencies. Therefore, even if bitcoin remains a fully decentralized unit, it will only be allowed to circulate locally when centralized.
Also, according to Hartmann, despite the prospects for the main cryptocurrency, it may even collapse to zero. This will happen against the background of the introduction of industry regulation in the world community. Due to a number of restrictions, investors will simply stop investing in bitcoin, which will first affect its capitalization, and later on the value.

- The founder of the crypto bank Galaxy Digital, Mike Novogratz, noted on CNBC the strong position of bitcoin in the face of pressure from the current Trump team, which has not been able to stop the record growth of the main cryptocurrency.
In addition, the head of Galaxy Digital expressed the hope that financial regulators under the leadership of President-elect Joe Biden will take a more loyal stance towards cryptocurrencies. “I hope that after the inauguration [January 20, 2021] we will get more progressive regulators. I will be happy to wait for the new administration and get a regulatory framework that supports rather than fights cryptocurrencies,” said Novogratz.

- The most secure strategy for investing in cryptocurrencies in 2021 will be the purchase and storage of a small portfolio of bitcoins and etheriums. This was stated by the head of the digital assets department of the Swiss online bank Swissquote Chris Thomas. In his opinion, these coins have long-term development potential.
In addition, a new form of digital money will appear in 2021, CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency). According to the expert, one of the first countries to introduce such a state digital currency will be China. In Europe, Sweden can become such a country due to the high acceptance rate of such assets.

- Bitcoin miners' income has increased by 185% since the May halving. And now, according to the estimates of the analytical service Glassnode, the total earnings of all miners in the world is about $1 million per hour.
The experts noted that the last time miners earned so much from mining bitcoin was in July 2019. Then the coin traded in the range from $9k to $11k. But at that point, the BTC mining award was twice the current one.

Almost 20% of Australians own digital currencies at the moment, according to a survey conducted by the Independent Reserve crypto exchange. At the same time, more than 90% of respondents said that they knew about the existence of bitcoin and other virtual coins. Bitcoin turned out to be much more popular than any of the altcoins, among which respondents noted ETH, EOS, XRP and LTС.
As in the past year, the largest share of cryptocurrency holders is among people aged 25 to 34.

- Dan Morehead, CEO of Pantera Capital investment company, speaking on CNBC, called the limited supply of bitcoin as a key driver of growth in the value of this cryptocurrency. Currently, giants like PayPal and Grayscale are buying more BTC than bitcoin miners can mine. “When we see that there are large institutional investors, each of whom buys more than 100% of the current issue of such assets, it pushes the price up,” explained Dan Morehead.
The market is nine weeks away from seeing bitcoin at $115,000, according to an estimate in December investment analytics from Pantera Capital.

- The world's largest crypto fund Grayscale published a report last Friday, which shows that the total amount of funds in the cryptocurrency under its control has reached $16.3 billion.
Analyst Kevin Rooke noted that this giant continued to buy up bitcoins even amid the recent consolidation of the crypto market. This clearly indicates that Grayscale is set for a long-term growth in the value of the largest digital currency.
At the moment, Bitcoin and Ethereum Grayscale trusts have accumulated digital assets of $14.075 billion and $1.808 billion, respectively.

- Miami Mayor Francis Suarez has attracted the attention of the community with his stance towards the first cryptocurrency. He called bitcoin the most stable investment in the outgoing, “volatile year” 2020. According to Suarez, Miami and South Florida should be “at the forefront of legislation” promoting digital assets and supported by innovation.
In his address, Suarez has also noted Morgan Creek Digital co-founder Anthony Pompliano saying Miami “is on track to become a bitcoin city.”

- Amsterdam Stock Exchange trader Michael van de Poppe believes that bitcoin will rise from its current level to at least $40,000. And although the expert does not rule out the likelihood of downward corrections, he is confident that "the bull market for bitcoin will continue for a long time."
In addition, Michael van de Poppe is convinced that a strong rally will be observed in the altcoin market sooner or later, in particular on Ethereum. According to the expert, the rise in prices in the altcoin market will begin after the first quarter of next year.

- Ethereum capitalization has exceeded $79 billion. The CEO of the crypto exchange Binance Changpeng Zhao drew attention to the fact that ETH had already surpassed such auto giants as General Motors ($59.5 billion), BMW ($47.1 billion) and Ferrari ($36.2 billion) in terms of capitalization.
In 2021, capital inflows into ETH will be even more significant, according to Messari analyst Ryan Watkins. Some investors are already concentrating exclusively on Ethereum. And the key event for this altcoin will be the launch of Ethereum futures on the Chicago Exchange (CME).


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  #505  
Old 04-01-2021, 09:45
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Forecast 2021: What to Expect from the Euro and the Dollar



If someone asks which currency pair is the most important and most liquid on Forex, the answer will follow immediately. Even a beginner will say: “Of course, EUR/USD”. There is even nothing to doubt about this: the trading volume for this pair reaches $1.1 trillion per day. These currencies represent two of the world's most powerful economies, and the US dollar is the first most important reserve currency. Most central banks continue to store large volumes of their gold and foreign exchange reserves (over 60%) in US dollars. The euro comes in second with over 22%.

It should be noted that the dollar is gradually losing its positions, according to Bloomberg, its peak (45.3%) in global payments was in April 2015. Now, following the SWIFT statistics, the euro has managed, although not by much, to bypass the dollar. In October 2020, 37.8% of money transfers served by this system were in the euro, while the share of the dollar was 37.64%. (The British pound took the third place with a huge margin with 6.92%).

Despite the weakening US currency, it is certainly too early to bury the dollar. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) announced in the summer of 2020 that about 50% of cross-border loans and international bonds are denominated in USD. Finally, about half of all trade invoices in the world are issued in dollars, even for non-US trade.

And let's not forget that market analysts evaluate the strength of different currencies by looking at the US Dollar Index (DXY). In fact, this is a basket of monetary units of six countries, the value of which is compared with USD. And the euro takes the lion's share of 57.6% in it (the remaining 5 account for only 42.4%).

All the above statistics indicate unambiguously that EUR/USD is number 1 among the major pairs on Forex. It is this pair that sets the main trends for other currencies. And that is why it is necessary for every trader to know and understand whatever happened to it, is happening and will happen.


A Bit of History

Surprisingly, despite its importance, the EUR/USD pair is quite young. The euro appeared thanks to the creation of the European Union in 1992, first in non-cash form, and it was only on January 1, 1999 that it officially replaced the rest of the European currencies. A few more years passed and in June 2002 the EUR became the sole means of payment in the Eurozone, displacing the then favorite, the German mark (USD/DEM) from the pedestal.

This event was preceded by two others, which had an important influence on the formation of the subsequent EUR/USD exchange rate. The first is a cut in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve in late 2000, and the second is a series of four coordinated terrorist attacks, the largest in the history of mankind, committed in the United States on September 11, 2001, including the destruction of the twin skyscrapers of the World Trade Center in New York. As a result, having started from the rate of 0.93 dollars per euro, by the middle of 2008 the pair rose to the level of 1.60. In other words, the dollar has lost more than 70% against the euro.

However, the European Central Bank (ECB) did not want to see the euro so strong, as it posed serious problems for European exports and dealt a blow to the trade balance. Therefore, verbal intervention began in the market. In addition, positive news constantly came from the United States regarding the state of the economy of this country, as a result of which the EUR/USD pair began to slide southward and recorded the low of the second decade of the 21st century near the 1.032 mark by the end of December 2016.

Many analysts then predicted a quick parity for the pair at the level of 1: 1, but this did not happen. And now the European currency is quoted in the area of 1.22 dollars per 1 euro.

What Happened: Year 2020

Exactly a year ago, we published forecasts given by experts from leading world banks regarding the EUR / USD rate for 2020, and now we can decide which of them was right and to what extent.

Thus, back in December 2019 analysts at Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, Bank of New York Mellon and a number of other banks reached consensus, predicting a fall in the US dollar in 2020. The main reason was the slowdown in global economic growth. In addition, it was predicted that on the eve of the presidential elections, the US Federal Reserve under pressure from Donald Trump will continue to reduce interest rates, or at least keep them at the current level.

Both of these forecasts proved to be absolutely correct. If at the end of 2019. the DXY dollar index fluctuated around 97, then after 12 months it fell below 90 points. The interest rate also went down: in December 2019 - January 2020 it was 1.75%, in early March it was lowered to 1.25%, and then completely dropped to 0.25%.

Recall that in December 2019, only the first outbreak of COVID-19 in Chinese Wuhan was recorded, and there was no idea of a global pandemic. But even then, the Financial Times published a forecast of Citigroup experts that the quantitative easing (QE) policy pursued by the US Federal Reserve and pumping the market with cheap dollar liquidity could cause the dollar to fall. Colleagues from Citigroup were supported then by analysts at the Swiss bank Lombard Odier, as well as one of the world's largest investment companies, BlackRock. And this scenario also came true 100%, and the coronavirus pandemic only played the role of a catalyst for this process: almost a quarter of all existing dollars were released in just one past year.

Some conspiracy theorists argue that the coronavirus was deliberately invented to implement the plan of a secret world government and help the financial elite buy up the bulk of dollar liquidity on the cheap. But exposing all sorts of conspiracies is not the purpose of this review. Therefore, let us turn to specific figures and see whose forecast turned out to be the most accurate.

According to Bloomberg, the consensus forecast of the largest market operators suggested that by the end of 2020, the US dollar wouldl "lose weight" by another 400-500 points, and the EUR/USD pair would rise to the 1.16 zone.

JPMorgan Chase specialists predicted the level of 1.14 for this pair for the end of 2020. Goldman Sachs and Bank of America Merrill Lynch called 1.15. And the German Deutsche Bank and the French Societe Generale pointed to the level of $1.20 per euro. The last two forecasts turned out to be the most accurate: the pair reached a high of 1.225 at the end of 2020. (Recall that all these scenarios did not take into account the consequences of the blow that COVID-19has inflicted on the economy).


What Will Happen: Year 2021

Some experts believe that for the United States, the onset of COVID-19 can be compared with the Third World War: more than 300,000 dead, a third of the working population is left without a constant source of income. The pandemic hit the country at the end of the 10-year economic growth cycle and in a presidential election year. Additional pressure on the economy was exerted by the trade wars that Donald Trump unleashed with China and Europe, as well as the growth of the dollar supply.

Most likely, in 2021, money will actively flow to Europe, and the dollar will face a deep devaluation. True, different analysts assess the depth of a possible fall in the USD differently.

So, for example, Goldman Sachs predicts a fall in the weighted USD rate in 2021 by only 6%, while Morgan Stanley expects the EUR/USD pair to rise from current levels to 1.25. (By the way, the figure 1.25 also sounds in many other moderate forecasts).

But there are also those who predict a catastrophic fall in the American currency. Prominent economists, Euro Pacific Capital President Peter Schiff and former Morgan Stanley Asia head and Fed Board member Stephen Roach estimate the likelihood of a dollar collapse in 2021 at 50%. At the same time, Roach believes that the devaluation of the dollar can reach 35%. A slightly smaller but also impressive devaluation of 20% is forecast by analysts at Citigroup. That is, in their opinion, we can see the EUR/USD pair in the 1.40-1.44 zone by the end of next year.

What can stop the dollar from falling?

Naturally, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy tightening. As of today, long-term inflation expectations have already jumped to 1.85%, which is not far from the regulator's target threshold of 2.0-2.5%. This inflation leads to the depreciation of the dollar. And at some point, lest the US currency collapse definitively, the Fed will be forced, albeit with great reluctance, to stop pumping the economy with cheap money and start a cycle of raising basic interest rates.

By the way, Europe, perhaps even more than the USA, is interested in stopping the growth of the EUR/USD pair.

Since mid-March 2020, the euro has strengthened against the dollar almost continuously. This is despite the fact that the ECB has printed over €2.2 trillion in a year and set negative interest rates.

There are calculations showing that a 10% strengthening of the euro is reducing Eurozone GDP by about 1%. And imagine that the EUR/USD pair will rise, as predicted in Citigroup, to the level of 1.40. Such growth would put all European exports at a blow. Who will then buy goods from the EU at rapidly rising prices?

The ECB already had a chance to weaken the euro against the dollar. However, this did not happen: the European regulator has decided not to interfere in the affairs of the foreign exchange markets and simply limit itself to "monitoring the exchange rate." But, according to many analysts, with the growth of the pair to levels around 1.25, the ECB will be forced to take very serious steps to limit the further growth of its currency. And it is quite possible that the next program of assistance to the EU economy in the amount of €2 or €3 trillion will be adopted in the near future. And in the wake of Europe, similar steps will be taken by the central banks of Great Britain, Canada, China and many other countries. And if 2019-2020 can be called the time of the World Trade Wars, then 2021 will be the time of the World Currency War.

Although ... most likely we will see both wars at the same time.

Happy New Year, 2021! It promises to be very interesting!



NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  #506  
Old 06-01-2021, 15:46
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CryptoNews


- The rise in the bitcoin price in recent months has shown that the first cryptocurrency can rise in price to $100,000 per coin, said the head of the American division of Binance Catherine Coley. In her opinion, this growth can be “accelerated” compared to what happened after the second halving in 2016. “We thought the $50,000 price was reasonable, but that number will definitely be slightly higher. I think that by the end of 2021 we will reach $75,000 - $100,000 per bitcoin,” the CEO of Binance.US believes.
More daring predictions for the BTC rate were made by Insider co-founder Henry Blodget and the CEO of the Kraken bitcoin exchange Jesse Powell: both named $1 million per coin. However, the former believes that this will happen thanks to speculators, while the latter relies on the growth of institutional investments in cryptocurrency.

- Investment bank JPMorgan has named a theoretical long-term target for the bitcoin price of $146,000. The millennial generation will drive adoption, JPMorgan says.
Experts believe that the image of an alternative to gold will make the first cryptocurrency even more popular. But this requires convergence of the volatility indicators of bitcoin and gold, and this is a "multi-year process."
JPMorgan's forecast is based on calculating the possible capitalization of bitcoin in the event of an inflow of funds, which are now in ETFs based on gold and in bullions. At the same time, analysts noted that already in October 2020, some outflow of funds from such ETFs and an inflow into Grayscale funds were recorded.

- Popular analyst Willie Woo believes that bitcoin is firmly entrenched above $20,000. In his opinion, we will no longer see the pullback of the cryptocurrency below this psychological mark.
Of particular importance is also the level of $24,000. After bitcoin crossed this milestone, it became clear that the market finally came under the control of investors who are inclined to long-term storage of cryptocurrency. If the coin keeps above $24,000, the number of its buyers will continue to grow.

- Analytics of Twitter posts show that as bitcoin sets new highs, social media interest in the digital currency is also setting new records. So, the number of unique messages about Bitcoin has reached 66,832, exceeding the previous high of 64,652 set during the 2017 bull run.

- The rise of bitcoin to $35,000 in recent days has led to the re-formation of the so-called "kimchi premium", which consists in the excess of the price of cryptocurrencies over the world ones on Korean exchanges. The overpayment rate on January 4 reached 5.5%.
Such an excess of prices on some exchanges over others was especially typical for the first half of 2018, when the difference reached 54%.
According to a number of analysts, the current price dynamics indicates an increased interest in cryptocurrency among South Koreans. This is due not only to expectations of further growth in BTC, but also to the fact that the Korean won is a restricted currency that is difficult to convert and move across the border.

- Luxurious and exclusive sports cars are increasingly being bought for bitcoins, which indicates an increase in the number of crypto millionaires. For example, the Vegas Auto Gallery in Nevada, whose sells aming other makes Aston Martin, Bentley, Ferrari and Lamborghini brands, has recently sold two first-class sport cars to customers, at over $6 million worth in BTC.

- December 2020 has proven to be the most successful for bitcoin miners in the past three years. They earned $ 692 million last month, according to a report from analytical service Block Research. Of this amount, about $63 million were transaction fees. But many miners are willing to pay so much high fees, if only their operations were processed as a priority.

- Chinese online game operator The9 announced its intention to join the cryptocurrency mining industry. To this end, it entered into agreements with several investors, including former executives of the Chinese mining company Canaan Inc.
The9 is listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange and expects to raise new capital by issuing and selling common Class A shares to investors, as well as coupons for their purchase. “Our goal is to collect enough mining devices to provide 8-10% of the global bitcoin hash rate, 10% of the global Ethereum hash rate and 10% of the global Grin hash rate,” said Jun Zhu, CEO of The9. - We intend to become one of the largest companies in the world in terms of hash rate. This will accelerate the development of other areas of our business related to cryptocurrencies.”

- On January 3, 2009, a person or group of people under the nickname Satoshi Nakamoto launched the main Bitcoin network, mining a genesis block with 50 BTC. Shortly before that, on October 31, 2008, the white paper of the first cryptocurrency was published. The first bitcoin transaction took place on January 12, 2009: Satoshi Nakamoto then sent 10 BTC to Hal Finney. A version of Bitcoin_0.1 software was published three days earlier.
Satoshi Nakamoto's identity and the motives for creating bitcoin still remain a mystery. It is possible that one of the incentives for this was the global financial crisis that broke out in 2007-2008.
In July 2020, the Whale Alert Twitter account showed information that well before Nakamoto left the crypto community more than ten years ago, he managed to mine 1,125,150 BTC. Now the cost of these coins would be about $40 billion.


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  #507  
Old 08-01-2021, 07:21
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December 2020 Results: NordFX's Most Successful Trader's Profit Exceeds $100,000


NordFX brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in December, last month of the past year 2020.

The highest profit in December was received by a client from China, account number 1345xxx. His profit exceeded the milestone of 100,000 and amounted to 107.654 USD. This impressive result was obtained mainly in transactions with the EUR/USD, GBP/USD currency pairs and gold (XAU/USD).

In second place is a trader from India (account number 1518xxx), whose profit amounted to just under 40 thousand dollars (39.506 USD), and was obtained through trading in many pairs, primarily GBP/USD and GBP/JPY, as well as operations with altcoin No.1, Ethereum (ETH/USD).

The third place in the December TOP-3 belongs to another Chinese trader (account No.1465xxx), with a result of 38.409 USD, who also made transactions with the British pound and gold, GBP/USD and XAU/USD.

The passive investment services:
- in CopyTrading in December, the Mak jemah signal (increase of 111.06% with a fairly serious maximum drawdown of 37.12%) attracted attention, as well as KennyFXPRO (an increase of 27.61% with a moderate drawdown of 6.65%);
- in the PAMM service, the results are more modest. Here the leader was the manager with the nickname The Owl Midnight Scalper, who showed an increase of 18.43% over the month. However, the drawdown here was significantly lower, only 2,39%, which can be attractive for investors who prefer stable income with a moderate degree of risk.

Among the IB partners, NordFX TOP-3 is as follows:
- the largest amount of commission, USD 8.425, was accrued to a partner from Sri Lanka, account No.1483xxx;
- next is a partner from India, account number 1491xxx, who received 5.991 USD;
- and finally, the top three in December 2020 is closed by another Indian partner, account No.1328ххх, who received $5.704 as a reward.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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  #508  
Old 11-01-2021, 06:53
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Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for January 11 - 15, 2021


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The dollar has been falling, and the EUR/USD pair has been rising accordingly since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic last March. And now it is no longer far from its Q1 2018 highs. True, the result of the last three weeks can be considered zero. And the blame is not only the Christmas and New Year holidays, but also the growth in the yield of US Treasury bonds, coupled with the hawkish statements of the Fed representatives.
After the certification of President-elect Biden and the majority of Democrats in the Senate, the yield of 10-year-old American Treasuries skyrocketed, pulling the dollar with it. The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Thomas Barkin, said that the growth in Treasury yields confirms the desire of investors to see higher interest rates on USD, and the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Patrick Harker, predicted that the curtailment of the QE program could begin in the second half of 2021. All this sharply reduced the appetite of the bulls, who began to close long positions in EUR/USD, as a result of which the pair ended the week at 1.2225;

- GBP/USD. The storms associated with the signing of the Brexit agreement subsided, and, following the EUR/USD, the GBP/USD pair took a breather. Having reached a high of 1.3705 on January 04, by the end of the week it returned to where it had already visited in mid-late December, and finished at 1.3560;

- USD/JPY. Three weeks ago, we predicted the movement of the pair from the central line to the upper border of the medium-term channel, along which it has been sliding smoothly south from the end of March 2020. This is exactly what happened. Twice, on January 4 and 5, after bouncing off the central line, the pair went up sharply, approaching the upper border of the channel at 104.10 on January 8. A small pullback followed, and it froze at 103.95. Note that the 104.00 zone has been a strong support/resistance level for the last four months, from which the pair has repeatedly bounced off in one direction or another;

- Cryptocurrencies. it was 12 years ago, on January 3, 2009, that a person or group of people under the nickname Satoshi Nakamoto launched the main bitcoin network, mining a genesis block with 50 BTC. A few days later, on January 12, the first bitcoin transaction took place: Satoshi Nakamoto sent 10 BTC to Hal Finney. And more recently, in July 2020, information appeared on the Whale Alert Twitter account that before his mysterious disappearance more than ten years ago, Nakamoto managed to mine 1,125,150 BTC. Now, when bitcoin has reached the mark of $41,000, the value of these coins would exceed $45 billion, and Nakamoto would have taken the 25th place among the richest people on the planet.
Here, in fact, we have already announced the most important news of the past week: the quotes of the main cryptocurrency exceeded $41,000 on Friday, January 8. Thus, starting in December 2020, in just five weeks, each BTC coin grew 115% heavier.
Which pleases not only investors, but also miners. December turned out to be their most successful month in the last three years. According to the analytical service Block Research, in December the total revenue of miners reached $692 million, which is almost $1 million per hour.
At the moment, the cryptocurrency mining market is dominated by China, which, according to some estimates, accounts for more than 50% of the global hash rate. The head of Ripple even called Bitcoin and Ethereum cryptocurrencies controlled by China.
By the way, about Ripple. The last week and a half have given some hope to the owners of this altcoin. Recall that while the rest of the top coins were growing in price, the XRP/USD pair, starting from November 24, was steadily going down. Starting at $0.77, it fell to $0.17 by the end of 2020, shrinking 78%.
But this is not all either. The biggest disaster awaited Ripple in the futures market. On December 23, the price of the March futures for this token fell to $0.00023 on the BitMEX derivative platform. Investors sold 80 million coins in one minute - this is how the market reacted to the lawsuit of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which accused this startup of illegally selling securities under the guise of XRP for $1.3 billion.
Now the situation has stabilized somewhat, and XRP/USD is quoted at $0.31 on January 8. And if a trader placed orders in advance to buy Ripple at the minimum price, then they made a profit of 1350% in just the last two weeks.
Returning to the main cryptocurrency, we note that its volatility, of course, is not as cosmic as that of Ripple, but it still remains more than impressive, reaching 10% per hour. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is in a very overbought zone: at 95 out of 100. But, despite this, following the BTC/USD quotes, the total crypto market capitalization continues to grow steadily, having reached $1.1 trillion. At the same time, the bitcoin dominance index came close to 70%.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. We described in detail a week ago how analysts from the world's leading banks and financial agencies see the rate of this pair in 2021. The median forecast is 1.2500, which corresponds to the January-February highs of three years ago.
As for the near future, 60% of experts hope that this January will become, if not a month of trend reversal, then at least a sufficiently deep correction of the pair to the south, which will return it to the level of 1.2050, or even 1.1900. The nearest support is in the 1.2100 zone. However, as for the indicators, this development was supported by only 80% of indicators on H4. On D1, both oscillators and trend indicators have taken a neutral position.
40% of analysts side with the bulls, supported by graphical analysis on H4 and D1. According to them, the pair, having pushed back from 1.2200, should return to the uptrend, and we will soon see it at 1.2350. And then 1.2500 is not far off.
As for the events of the coming week, of interest are the data on the US consumer market, which will be published on Wednesday January 13 and Friday January 15. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is also scheduled to make a speech at the end of the working week, and the market will wait whether he confirms the words of his colleagues Thomas Barkin and Patrick Harker regarding a possible increase in interest rates and curtailment of the quantitative easing (QE) program;

- GBP/USD. In general, the forecast for the next week or two here is very similar to the forecast for the euro/dollar. Technical indicators on D1 provide either neutral or multi-directional signals. 60% of experts, 70% of oscillators and 75% of trend indicators on H4 vote for the fall of the pair. 40% of analysts are for its growth, as well as the remaining indicators on H4 and graphical analysis on both timeframes. Support levels are 1.3525, 1.3485 and 1.3285. The next strong support is in the 1.3185 zone. Resistance levels are 1.3620 and 1.3725.
As for the events of the coming week, we should pay attention to the speech of the head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey, which will take place on Monday, January 11;

- USD/JPY. How the yen will behave largely depends on both the risk sentiment of investors and the behavior of US Treasury securities. For now, most analysts (55%) are confident that the pair will stay within the downward medium-term channel and, having fought off its upper border around 104.00, will return to its central zone. This possibility is confirmed by 25% of oscillators giving signals on the pair being overbought on H4 and D1. The nearest support is 103.65, the next one is 103.00. The target is located in the 102.50 area.
35% of experts and graphical analysis on D1 vote for the fact that the pair will still be able to break through the upper border of the designated channel and rise to the zone 104.70-105.00. The next target of the bulls is 105.70; And finally, the remaining 10% of analysts are neutral, suggesting that the pair will fluctuate around Pivot Point 104.00;

- cryptocurrencies. Investors' optimism was added by the imminent coming to power in the United States of the Joe Biden administration. The founder of the Galaxy Digital crypto bank, Mike Novogratz, noted on CNBC that Trump's team was never able to stop the record growth of the main cryptocurrency, and expressed hope that financial regulators under the leadership of the new president would take a more loyal position. “I hope that after the inauguration [January 20, 2021] we will get more progressive regulators. I will be happy to wait for the new administration and get a regulatory framework that supports rather than fights cryptocurrencies,” said Novogratz.
As for the entry into the market of large institutional investors, in addition to regulatory restrictions, they are hampered by extremely high volatility of major cryptocurrencies. Thus, experts at the investment bank JPMorgan believe that the image of an alternative to gold will make bitcoin even more popular and predict its growth to $146,000. But this requires convergence of the volatility indicators of bitcoin and gold, and this is a "multi-year process."
Looking at what's been happening with bitcoin lately, JPMorgan's estimate may seem too conservative to many. According to investment analytics from Pantera Capital, the market is just weeks away from seeing Bitcoin price at $115,000. Speaking on CNBC, Dan Morehead, CEO of Pantera Capital investment company, called the limited supply of bitcoin as a key driver of growth in the value of this cryptocurrency. Currently, giants like PayPal and Grayscale are buying more BTC than bitcoin miners can mine, he explained.
At the moment, Bitcoin and Ethereum Grayscale trusts have accumulated digital assets of $14.075 billion and $1.808 billion, respectively. And, according to analyst Kevin Rooke, this giant continues to buy bitcoins, which suggests that Grayscale is set for long-term growth in the value of the largest digital currency.
Another popular analyst, Willie Woo, agrees with this. In his opinion, after bitcoin crossed the border of $24.000, it became clear that the market finally came under the control of long-term investors.
Binance, one of the largest crypto exchanges, also raised its forecast. “We thought the $50,000 price was reasonable, but that number will definitely be higher. I think that we will reach $75.000 - $100.000 for 1 BTC, by the end of 2021” says the CEO of its US unit Catherine Coley.
And finally, the most daring predictions for the BTC/USD pair, made by Insider co-founder Henry Blodget and the CEO of the Kraken bitcoin exchange Jesse Powell: both named $1 million per coin. However, the former believes that this will happen thanks to speculators, while the latter relies on the growth of institutional investments in cryptocurrency.
As for altcoin No.1, the capitalization of ethereum has exceeded $140 billion, which is many times more than that of such auto giants as, for example, General Motors ($59.5 billion), BMW ($47.1 billion) and Ferrari ($36.2 billion). Capital inflows into ETH will be even more significant in 2021, according to Messari analyst Ryan Watkins. Some investors are already concentrating exclusively on ethereum. And the key event for this altcoin will be the launch of ethereum futures on the Chicago Exchange (CME). In general, according to the estimates of the trader of the Amsterdam Stock Exchange, Michael van de Poppe, a strong rally in the altcoin market should start after the first quarter of this year.


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Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  #509  
Old 13-01-2021, 15:38
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CryptoNews


- Mike McGlone, crypto analyst at Bloomberg, believes that bitcoin could hit the $50,000 mark in the near future. He gave a forecast a few months ago, according to which BTC was supposed to grow to a new historical high in December 2020, which eventually did happen.
“The main cryptocurrency already hit the $40,000 mark in early January but pulled back slightly due to a number of external factors,” Mike McGlone commented on his forecast. - There is an opinion that the general situation in the financial market affected the value of the main coin. The United States is currently not in the best position due to fluctuations in the dollar, which is why investors are switching to cryptocurrency from fiat. The capitalization of the main coin is tending to record values. I think the asset will take the 50k barrier soon.” Moreover, according to еру Bloomberg specialist, the chances for growth are much greater than for further weakening of the exchange rate. According to him, a rollback to $20,000 is now practically impossible.

- According to Bitcoin Treasures, large public companies acquired more than 1 million BTC (5.57% of the cryptocurrency market supply) last year, with a current value of about $40 billion. One of the most active institutional investors in 2020 is the world's largest crypto fund, Grayscale Investments, which manages about 600 thousand BTC, and the total value of its crypto assets is estimated at $24.5 billion (as of January 11, 2021).
Another major institutional investor is Nasdaq-listed mobile software company MicroStrategy. It has invested $1.12 billion in bitcoin over the past six months as a risk hedge and now it owns more than 70 thousand BTC.

- We wrote in the previous CryptoNews that it was 12 years ago, on January 12, 2009, that the creator of Bitcoin, known by the nickname Satoshi Nakamoto, sent the first transaction on the bitcoin network to the developer Hal Finney. Unlike Satoshi, much more is known about this recipient of the cryptocurrency.
Hal Finney partnered with PGP Corporation for many years, developing encryption products. Six months before his death in August 2014, Finney described his first experience with bitcoin:
“When Satoshi released the software, I immediately connected. I think I was the first person besides Satoshi to launch bitcoin. In total, I mined 70-odd blocks and became the recipient of the first bitcoin transaction. " At that time, Satoshi sent ten coins for the test. Over the next few days, Finney corresponded with the creator of bitcoin by email, helping to troubleshoot errors.
Describing his experience, the developer regretted his initially low interest in bitcoin. After helping with network testing and his first mining experience, Finney simply turned off the computer "because it was warming up and ha was annoyed by the fan noise."
The next time the developer returned to Bitcoin was in 2010, when Laszlo Heinitz bought two pizzas for 10,000 BTC and the cryptocurrency was first exchanged for dollars. 'I blew the dust off my old wallet and was relieved to find that my bitcoins were still in place. My children are technically savvy enough for me to leave cryptocurrency to them inherit,” the developer wrote.
According to Finney, the identity of Satoshi remained a mystery to him, although he assumed that he was dealing with "a young man of Japanese descent, very intelligent and sincere."

- Forbes magazine has compiled a list of people whose fortunes have grown significantly due to the rise in the price of cryptocurrencies. In first place are the founders of the bitcoin exchange Gemini, the Winklevoss brothers. The estimated value of their cryptocurrency assets, according to Forbes, is about $1.4 billion each.
Bloq co-founder Matthew Roszak with $1.2 billion in digital assets ranks second, followed by venture capitalist Tim Draper. According to Forbes, the value of his assets is estimated at $1.1 billion.
In fourth place is the head of MicroStrategy, Michael Sailor, with assets worth $600 million, in fifthis the founder of the crypto bank Galaxy Digital Mike Novogratz. Forbes valued his cryptocurrency assets at $478 million.
The last on the list is the co-founder of Ethereum Vitalik Buterin with assets worth $360 million.

- A discussion broke out online between billionaire Mark Cuban and the president of Euro Pacific Capital, Peter Schiff. The former expressed confidence in the ability of bitcoin and some altcoins to pass the “market bubble” similar to the way Amazon, eBay and Priceline experienced the dotcom boom.
Gold supporter Peter Schiff replied to this that “internet companies had real value, while no cryptocurrency has it.”
Cuban countered that the price of cryptocurrency, like gold, is determined only by supply and demand. “This is a means of saving value. There is no real use in bitcoin. All the talk of fiat and depreciation is advertising fiction. Bitcoin is not meant for transactions,” added the billionaire.

- Bitcoin trading on the PayPal platform is gaining popularity: trade volumes have increased by 950% since the beginning of January, that is, almost 10 times. According to the analytical service Nomics, platform users made transactions with BTC for just $22.8 million on January 01, 2021, and their volume amounted to $242 million on January 11, which indicates an increase in interest from retail investors.
While many praise PayPal for providing access to cryptocurrencies, others criticize the platform for not supporting cryptocurrency withdrawal functionality. That is, PayPal users who buy bitcoin on the platform can only sell it there.
As a reminder, the ability to trade cryptocurrencies on PayPal appeared in November 2020. While the function is only available to users from the United States, in the future the company plans to provide access to it to residents of other countries.

- Ethereum is poised for further growth, said Dan Tapiero, founder of the DTAP Capital investment fund. This is evidenced by the interest on the part of institutional clients of the American financial holding Northern Trust. In partnership with Standard Chartered bank, the holding company launches a service for storing cryptocurrencies. And "if Northern Trust stores bitcoin and ethereum, then they have buyers for both assets," Tapiero substantiated his point of view.

- Changpeng Zhao, CEO and founder of the largest crypto exchange by trading volume, Binance, said that at one time he had sold his apartment to buy the first bitcoins. “It was 2013. I sold my apartment to buy bitcoins. The price of BTC at that point was something around $200,” he recalls. “Now I do not use fiat money at all and do not transfer cryptocurrency to fiat. For me personally, fiat is no longer relevant. I pay for food, taxi, and in general I pay for everything exclusively with cryptocurrency, "added the head of Binance.

- Seventy-year-old investor Bill Miller expressed the opinion that the first cryptocurrency has far from exhausted its growth potential. Firms like Square and PayPal buy freshly mined bitcoins every day, he said. Demand from retail investors is also growing. At the same time, in contrast to demand, the supply of digital gold increases slowly. This situation creates the prerequisites for the increase in the price of bitcoin to new heights.
Miller added that while people speculate about where the price peak is, the Fed's zero interest rate policy puts cash in a "guaranteed losing position." This means that holding 1–2% of a portfolio in bitcoin is a good hedge against risk, even if the cryptocurrency eventually crashes. “I think that owning a small number of bitcoins is more of a risk management strategy than anything else,” the American investor emphasized.


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  #510  
Old 17-01-2021, 12:43
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NordFX Receives Three Prestigious Awards at the End of 2020


The winners of the awards of the International Academy of Trading Masterforex-V and the International Association of Forex Traders IAFT became known at the very beginning of the new year, 2021. Among the winners is the brokerage company NordFX, which has won three prestigious professional awards.


Founded in 2005, Masterforex-V International Academy is one of the leading and most ambitious online projects in the field of foreign exchange trading. Today traders from more than 50 countries of the world are trained at the Academy. The rectorate and the students of the Academy evaluate the performance of financial organizations throughout the year, forming ratings, at the top of which NordFX has repeatedly found itself. And now, at the end of 2020, the MasterForex-V Academy community has once again expressed its trust and recognition to the company, having honoured it with the title of "World Most Reliable Broker."

The company received two more awards based on the results of the annual voting on the IAFT Awards website. It is organized by the International Association of Forex Traders (IAFT), in which more than 200,000 traders from various countries take part. Each of them can vote on the award website, which makes it possible to assess the activities of a broker as objectively as possible.

For the third year in a row, NordFX won the Best Broker in Asia nomination by a wide margin, which is an unconditional recognition of the company's active work and success in this most important region of the planet.

And another award from the International Association of Forex Traders, the title of the Best Cryptocurrency Broker of 2020, was a testament to the high quality of services that the company provides for operations in the digital asset market.


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  #511  
Old 18-01-2021, 05:43
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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for January 18 - 22, 2021


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. Making a forecast for the past week, the majority of experts (60%) were in favor of reducing the pair first to support 1.2100, and then, possibly, another 50 points lower. Almost everything happened as forecasted: the EUR/USD pair was at the level of 1.2075 at the end of the trading week.
It should be noted that a somewhat atypical situation has developed on the market since the start of 2021. Usually, the rise in the stock market puts downward pressure on the dollar. This is exactly what happened in the previous month: fueled by risk appetites, the S&P500 grew steadily, while the dollar index, which plays the role of a defensive asset, was steadily falling. According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, in December, large investors hoped for a quick victory over COVID-19, a surge in GDP, they were actively buyingt shares of technology companies and were also actively getting rid of the dollar. And now the situation has changed dramatically: the USD DXY index began to grow in parallel with the S&P500.
What is the reason for this? First, US stocks look overvalued at the moment. At least from the point of view of American investors. In addition, we wrote in the previous review that after the certification of the US President-elect Biden and the majority of Democrats in the Senate, the yield of 10-year American Treasuries went up sharply, pulling the dollar with it. The leaders of the Federal Reserve Banks (FRB) of Richmond and Philadelphia added fuel to the fire, hinting at a possible curtailment of the QE program and an increase in interest rates on the dollar; bulls began to close long positions in EUR/USD;

- GBP/USD. Over the past five days, this pair has drawn a clear sinusoid, moving in the 1.3450-1.3700 channel along the 1.3575 Pivot Point. At the beginning, it dropped to the lower border of this trading range, and then turned around and sharply went up, reaching the values of 2.5 years ago on Wednesday.
The pound was supported last week by the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, who not only rejected the possibility of introducing a negative interest rate, but also expressed the opinion that the coronavirus pandemic is not capable of causing any structural changes in the UK economy. As a result, the pound showed the biggest gains in the past two months. However, then, following the general trend of strengthening dollar, the pair returned to the Pivot Point and finished the week at 1.3580;

- USD/JPY. The forecast, which was voted for by the majority of analysts (55%), turned out to be absolutely correct: the pair kept within the descending medium-term channel and, having bounced off its upper border, moved to its center.
Recall that another 10% of analysts assumed that the pair would move sideways, making fluctuations around Pivot Point 104.00. And they also turned out to be right: having started the five-day week at 103.95, it completed it also within this zone, at 103.85;

- cryptocurrencies. By the evening of Friday January 15, the bitcoin chart can equally likely speak of both a return to an uptrend or a continuation of a downward correction. Reaching a historic high of $41.435 on January 08, the BTC/USD pair turned south and dropped to $30.600 by January 11. All major indicators have long been giving signals of bitcoin being overbought, and only an excuse was needed for such a deep correction. And it was found in the form of an increase in the yield on US government bonds, which caused the dollar to strengthen. As a result, the main cryptocurrency lost more than 25% in price in just three days.
Then, to the delight of investors, the pair again approached the $40,000 mark, and the USA again became the formal reason for this. More precisely, President-elect Joe Biden, who announced a new $1.9 trillion economic aid package that includes $2,000 in direct payments to Americans. Such massive fiscal and monetary stimulus is likely to drive inflation and, as a result, increase demand for risky assets, including cryptocurrencies.
All good things are known to end someday. So bitcoin stopped its growth on January 14, and failed to set a new height record. And then the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde called for global regulation of the digital currency market. Referring to the speculative nature of bitcoin, she stated that such regulation could be initiated within the G7 countries, then carried over to the G20, and eventually expanded to a global level.
Taking advantage of the situation, the bears regained control of the situation and the BTC/USD pair dropped below the $ 35,000 level again in the second half of Friday, January 15.
It should be noted that the activity of investors has significantly decreased at the start of 2021. According to CoinShares, only $29 million was invested in crypto funds in the first week of January. This is despite the fact that similar investments amounted to more than $ 1 billion the week before Christmas. Of course, such a lull can be explained by a respite for the holidays. Moreover, crypto whales also reacted sluggishly to the correction on January 8-11: withdrawal operations were recorded only on a very small number of their BTC wallets.
PayPal data show that at least the retail market is gradually waking up after the Christmas and New Year hibernation, the volume of bitcoin trading on this platform has increased by 950% since the beginning of January, that is, almost 10 times. If, according to the analytical service Nomics, platform users made transactions with BTC for only $22.8 million on January 01, 2021, their volume amounted to $242 million ten days later.
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization was $1 trillion by January 15 (it was $1.13 trillion at the high of January 10). The BTC dominance index is in the region of 68%, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell from 95 to 88 points over the week.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell denied the statements of his colleagues from the regional Federal Reserve Banks, saying that one should not count on raising interest rates and curtailing soft monetary policy in the near future. These words, coupled with Joe Biden's new $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus package, are likely to halt the rise in US Treasury yields and support the bulls on S&P500. Moreover, the hopes for vaccination, which will lead to a rapid growth in GDP, have not disappeared. Thus, Wall Street Journal experts predict an increase in American GDP by 4.3% in 2021.
But will this break the current correlation between the dollar and the stock market? Will the dollar stop rising? It is not excluded that the growth of the S&P500 will be supported not only by American, but also by major investors from other countries. And such an infusion of foreign capital into the US economy will lead to the strengthening of the US currency.
Now, specifically about the EUR/USD pair. It is clear that at the time of writing the forecast (January 15), most indicators are painted red. 100% of trend indicators on H4, 75% on D1, as well as 75% of oscillators on both timeframes look to the south. The remaining oscillators signal that the pair is oversold.
As for the experts, their opinions are divided equally at the moment. But when moving from a weekly to a mid-term forecast, the scales are tilted towards the bulls. 65% of analysts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, expect the dollar to weaken and the pair to rise to at least 1.2500-1.2550 over the next one and a half to two months. The nearest resistances are 1.2175, 1.2275, 1.2300 and 1.2350. The main support area is 1.1800-1.1900.
As for the important events of the coming week, attention should be paid to the ECB's interest rate decision and the subsequent press conference of the management of this regulator on Thursday 21 January. And data on business activity of Germany and the Eurozone as a whole will be published the next day, on January 22;

- GBP/USD. Not only Germany and the EU, but also the UK will release statistics on business activity (Markit in the services sector) on Friday 22 January. This data could send a signal to investors about how the attack of a new coronavirus strain has affected the country's economy. Recall that earlier Britain reported record levels of deaths and new cases over the past few weeks in London and the south-east of England.
However, problems associated with COVID-19 are intensifying in other countries as well, including the United States. Therefore, 60% of analysts, supported by graphical analysis on H4 and D1, believe that the pair will be able to return to the level of 1.3700, and perhaps rise another 100 points higher. An additional argument for its growth is the new fiscal stimulus in the US, which has been discussed above.
Support levels 1.3540 and 1.3450;

- USD/JPY. The rise of the pair from the lower to the upper border of the descending medium-term channel, which took place in the first two weeks of January, is associated by a number of experts with an increase in risk sentiment and a decrease in interest in the yen as a safe-haven currency. Based on this, they believe that the pair will still be able to break through the upper border of the designated channel and rise to the 105.00 zone. 35% of analysts and graphical analysis on D1 vote for this scenario. The next target of the bulls is 105.70, the nearest resistance is the zone 104.00-104.35.
The majority of experts (65%) are confident that the pair will stay within the designated channel. The nearest support is 103.60, the next one is 103.00. The target is located in the 102.50 area.

- cryptocurrencies. So, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is now at the level of $1 trillion. This is an important psychological level, especially for retail investors. Further growth of this indicator will be a clear confirmation of forecasts about the rise of the BTC/USD pair at least to a height of $50.000. If the capitalization goes down, then this can cause a landslide sale of coins: the example of the 2018 crypto winter is alive in the market memory.
In the meantime, the market is still dominated by an optimistic mood. So, for example, Bloomberg crypto analyst Mike McGlone believes that $50.000 is a real target for bitcoin. He gave a forecast a few months ago, according to which BTC was supposed to grow to a new historical high in December 2020, which eventually did happen. “I think that the asset will take the barrier of 50 thousand in the near future,” said this expert and added that the chances of BTC growth are much greater than its further weakening, and a pullback to $20,000 is now practically excluded.
Dan Morehead, CEO of investment company Pantera Capital, predicts that bitcoin's price will hit $115,000 by August 2021 and events such as the launch of the digital yuan will help further the penetration of cryptocurrencies into the global economy.
If this happens, there will be even more crypto millionaires and billionaires in the world. For now, according to Forbes, the list of the richest of them looks like this:
In first place are the founders of the bitcoin exchange Gemini, the Winklevoss brothers. The estimated value of their cryptocurrency assets, according to Forbes, is about $1.4 billion each. Bloq co-founder Matthew Roszak with $1.2 billion in digital assets ranks second, followed by venture capitalist Tim Draper. According to Forbes, the value of his assets is estimated at $1.1 billion.
In fourth place is the head of MicroStrategy, Michael Sailor, with assets worth $600 million, in fifthis the founder of the crypto bank Galaxy Digital Mike Novogratz. Forbes valued his cryptocurrency assets at $478 million. The last on the list is the co-founder of ethereum Vitalik Buterin with assets worth $360 million.
Speaking of ethereum. According to the founder of the investment fund DTAP Capital Dan Tapiero, this coin is ready for further growth. This is evidenced by the interest on the part of institutional clients of the American financial holding Northern Trust. The holding company launches a service for storing cryptocurrencies, in partnership with Standard Chartered bank. And "if Northern Trust stores bitcoin and ethereum, then they have buyers for both assets," Tapiero substantiated his point of view.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  #512  
Old 20-01-2021, 16:11
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CryptoNews


- Bitcoin has proven to be the most profitable asset in the past nine years due to constant fluctuations in value. According to experts, in this case it is not only about a direct increase in the price of cryptocurrency. Even when the coin sinks, it benefits traders who buy it at the price lowest for a certain period.
“Currently, the base coin is trading at $35,000. If everything develops in about the same direction, then in February it will be possible to see bitcoin for $45,000 or even more,” predicted the head of Pantera Capital investment company Dan Morehead, and at the same time he advised traders and other industry participants to be reasonable, since bitcoin has always been unstable. Even against the backdrop of the rally that began in December last year, the asset continues to remain risky, which is well understood by all experienced coin holders.

- JPMorgan Chase strategists, led by Nicholas Panigirtzoglou, believe that bitcoin could lose ground in the short term if it fails to break above $40,000. This month, the flagship cryptocurrency has twice broken through this key level, and then rolled back.
The key to the short-term outlook for bitcoin's price is the world's largest digital asset management company Grayscale Investments, with a crypto portfolio currently valued at $23 billion, analysts say. "For such a breakthrough to occur, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust will likely need to maintain an inflow rate of $100 million per day over the coming days and weeks." However, if BTC still fails to hit the $40,000 mark, a deep correction can be expected.

- After a deal to sell cryptocurrency, a Hong Kong resident was robbed of $448,700. This is reported by news agency South China Morning Post. The buyer of the digital currency invited the trader to the office of ashopping center to carry out the transaction. She transferred USDT tokens and received HK $3.5 million in cash. After the transaction, three men ran out of a nearby room and, threatening with a knife, took away the victim's money and the smartphone. The woman was locked up, and all four "buyers" fled.
Interestingly, the victim had already conducted several successful transactions with this buyer. According to police, in this way the criminals won the trust of the victim.

- Billionaire Howard Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital Group, has significantly changed his attitude towards bitcoin. Earlier, Marks stated that investing in cryptocurrency is a very dangerous operation that can cause huge losses for large investors. In 2017, during the bitcoin rally, he advised to refrain from buying coins. In addition, he called cryptocurrencies "fake" and said they had no real value.
And now the billionaire says that his "skeptical views on cryptocurrency assets have not been confirmed." “Let's hope,” Marx wrote, “that events will continue to develop as actively as they are now. The cryptocurrency market is gradually emerging from the shadow sector, as evidenced by a large number of major investors. I think it still has real value. My family owns an impressive number of bitcoins, which I support at this stage.”

- According to the online edition Forklog, a "biblical message" was found in the bitcoin block No.666666. “Do not be overcome by evil, but overcome evil with good,” says the Epistle to the Romans of the Apostle Paul, chapter 12, verse 21. An unknown person added this quote from the sixth book of the New Testament to block # 666666 of the bitcoin network and sent two equal amounts in the first cryptocurrency to two addresses, the first characters of which contain the words "God" and "Bible" in English.

- The former CEO of the now defunct South Korean cryptocurrency exchange Coinnest was sentenced to 18 months in prison. It is reported by Bitcoin.com with reference to local media.
According to the case file, ex-director Kim Ik Hwang received a bribe of 110 BTC ($770 thousand at that time) in February 2018 for listing the S-coin, which was issued by K Group. Subsequently, 2 million S-coins with a total value of $125,500 were also credited to his account.
Although the defendant pleaded not guilty, the Supreme Court sentenced Kim to one and a half years in prison for commercial bribery and fined him over $61,000. “Hwang manipulated market prices and gained unreasonable profit for it. Such actions undermine confidence in the crypto industry, which means they are unacceptable," the prosecutor said.

- 2020 has turned out much better for long-term investors than the previous year. The market capitalization of 30 key assets of the cryptocurrency market grew by 308% (versus 62% in 2019), according to a report from CoinGecko. Among the five largest coins, bitcoin has shown the best results, having risen in price by about four times (in 2019 - by 95%). Ethereum looked even better, its price rose by 472% after near-zero dynamics over the previous 365 days. Portfolios with DeFi protocol tokens gained 718% on average.

- Scott Meinerd, investment director at Guggenheim Partners, compared the current situation with what happened to the economy after the Spanish flu epidemic in 1918. At the same time, he confirmed his forecast for the bitcoin rate at $400,000 but warned of a possible correction.
According to the specialist, the latest rise in the BTC rate could have been caused by retail investors. “I think it's about them. There is some speculative frenzy in the market. It may be worth withdrawing some of the funds from cryptocurrencies,” Minerd said.

- A startup in the field of cybersecurity Red Balloon Security from New York (USA) as a test task sends applicants to vacant places a hard drive with locked bitcoins worth about $5 thousand and several boxes of chocolates.
In a week, the applicant needs to get access to the cryptocurrency wallet. If successful, part of the funds must be spent on buying a ticket to New York in order to meet with a representative of Red Balloon Security. Anyway, one can keep the chocolates.
The company sends such packages to almost everyone, but at the same time it regularly changes the content of the test so that applicants cannot share their results on the Internet. Statistics show that for 150-200 people there is only one applicant who has successfully completed the task.

- One of the world's largest investment banks, Goldman Sachs, is exploring the possibility of launching a custodian service for digital assets. This is reported by CoinDesk with reference to its own source within the bank. “Like JPMorgan,” the source said, “we have released an RFI for digital storage. We are studying the issue extensively and deciding what to do next. " Regarding the timing of the launch of services related to cryptocurrencies, the source replied that the bank's plans "will become apparent in the near future."


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  #513  
Old 22-01-2021, 09:10
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How to Start Trading on Forex. Rapid Growth Plan


The Forex currency market is one of the few places where everyone can try to realize themselves. The absence of superiors, the non-existent ceiling on earnings, the work schedule for which you are responsible — all this is in the trader's profession. But becoming one is not an easy task.

Newcomers who come here face a number of difficulties. Many do not understand how to start trading Forex and what is needed for this. Therefore, they make mistakes at the beginning, which can discourage the desire to trade on Forex forever after the first attempt.

Since the path of novice traders and investors cannot be called an easy walk, we have prepared our own action plan. By following it, you will quickly find the key to understanding the market, and Forex trading will begin to generate income, for which, in fact, you came here.

Where to Start Trading on Forex

Forex market is a decentralized interbank exchange where currency is traded between its participants. In simple words, Forex is the global market for currency trading . The main source of a trader's earnings is the exchange rate difference between the price of buying and selling one currency in exchange for another. For example, you can buy and then sell back dollars for euros, or Japanese yen for Chinese yuan. But before you start predicting the benefit of a particular deal and making money from it, you should go through the following main stages. There are seven of them, and these are:
1. Choosing a broker ;
2. Opening of a trading account;
3. Downloading the platform (for broker NordFX, this is MT4);
4. Acquaintance with the theoretical part;
5. Choosing a currency pair and trading strategy;
6. Testing theory on a demo account and obtaining the necessary skills;
7. Smooth transition to real trading with real money.

How to Choose a Forex Broker

The foreign exchange market is arranged in such a way that only large capital can access it directly. We are talking about millions of dollars, because the main participants in trading are banking institutions and institutional investors, such as hedge funds. To start trading on Forex , a private trader needs to use the services of an intermediary - a broker . The latter accumulates all orders of traders into a single powerful pool and enters the market with it. Thanks to this, Forex trading has become available to everyone, even those who have very little capital.

It is important to choose a decent brokerage company. When you open a trading account , the next step is to fund it. Your money is a tidbit for scammers. There are cases when fake companies simply imitated real trading. There are also those that are doing their best to under various pretexts not to return customers profit earned by them. To do this, they use non-market quotes or fictitious server crashes. There are those who deliberately insert sticks into the wheels, juggling spreads, requotes, slippage. Therefore, choosing a broker can be compared to laying the foundation for building a house.

Regulation and Reputation

One of the basic criteria for choosing a broker is their regulation and reputation.

A law-abiding company must be legally registered to allow the appropriate type of business. Despite the fact that the conditions for each country are different, the company's activity in the financial markets is always closely monitored. These are the issuance of a license, verification of reports, payment of insurance premiums, consideration of complaints and monitoring. As soon as a broker begins to go beyond the law, at best it is fined for a very large sum, or even deprived of its license, forbidding it to work.

In addition to the license, you should carefully study the company's reputation and history. Brokers who once took the path of deception cannot exist for a long time. First, the regulator's response is imminent. Secondly, there is a wave of negative reviews.

The longer the broker stays in the market, the clearer its reputation becomes. From the position of a trader, choosing a company without history and reputation is not justified.

The brokerage company NordFX has been operating in the financial markets since 2008 and is included in the TOP-10 and TOP-20 of many international ratings. It has received more than 50 honorary awards, including those as an exceptionally reliable highly professional broker. During this time, clients from more than 190 countries of the world have opened more than one and a half million accounts in it. Agree, that says a lot!

NordFX works not only in the foreign exchange, but also in the stock and cryptocurrency markets. And during this time, unlike many cryptocurrency exchanges, there was not a single hacker hacking in the company, not a single penny of customer funds was stolen. And all this thanks to the combination of many years of experience of NordFX specialists and the advanced technologies and equipment they use.

Trading Terms

The beginner may have the impression that the terms of the trading account are identical regardless of the broker. In fact, this is not the case. The size of the spread, commission or swap, the speed of order execution, the minimum deposit size, the variety of trading instruments, leverage - all these factors uniquely affect the final profitability of a trader's work.

The difference becomes noticeable when studying the details. For example, some have huge spreads for the currency pair you are interested in, while others, on the contrary, have low spreads. The broker that you choose should have the trading conditions that are right for you. Trading in poor trading conditions will do no good. For example, if you trade inside the day on short time frames, the size of the swap doesn't make any difference to you. But if you keep your position open for several weeks or months, then a negative swap can “eat up” all your profits and bring only losses.

The size of the leverage is also important. Under normal conditions in the market, you may not use it, but under extraordinary conditions it can be your lifeline that will keep you from falling victim to financial storms and hurricanes. At NordFX, for example, the maximum leverage for currency pairs reaches 1: 1000, which significantly expands your opportunities for using a variety of trading strategies and hedging risks.

Speed and Withdrawal Methods, Support

It is important to check the future partner (and the broker is your partner) for the ability to solve current problems. To do this, ask Support a few questions and assess how quickly you got the answer to your question. If the problem is not solved, *you should think about the quality of service.

Many do not attach importance to this, but at times of real problems only effective support can minimize damage.

Pay attention to the methods of depositing and withdrawing money, their variety, the size of the commission and the speed of order execution. It is counterproductive to cooperate with a brokerage company, which has a term of withdrawal of money as one month in the regulations.

Opening a Trading Account

When you have laid the foundation, that is, decided on a reliable brokerage company, the next step is to open a trading account. Forex trading is carried out through it. One company may have several types of accounts. You should choose a specific one, focusing on your tasks, the amount of capital, and expediency.

Broker NordFX offers its clients four types of accounts. Each of them is unique in its own way and endowed with advantages that, in total, cover all the requirements that a trader can impose on them, and allow you to effectively use a wide variety of trading strategies, conducting transactions with currencies, cryptocurrencies, precious metals, oil, stock indices and shares of leading world companies.

Downloading the Platform

Trading on financial markets is carried out using special software. Depending on which terminal is selected, the number of tools for price analysis and your capabilities will depend. Indicators, advisors, scripts make trading more comfortable and efficient.

Today, in Forex, the majority of traders in the world choose the MetaTrader 4 (MT4) platform. Its interface is intuitive, which allows, just a few minutes after meeting, to make the first transaction. As for the tools and opportunities, they are huge. Study the functional features of MT4 in detail, and you will understand how much it can do for you.

Acquaintance with the Theoretical Part

A trader is a profession that, in principle, anyone can comprehend. But, like in any occupation, there are a number of secrets here, without which you cannot rise from a beginner to the level of a high-class professional. In order to become one, you need to study the theory that is dedicated to the foreign exchange market. This applies not only to methods of technical analysis of charts, but also to understanding the basics of pricing and the functioning of world markets. The following tutorials and tutorials will help you with this:
1. “How to Make a Living Trading Foreign Exchange” - Courtney Smith;
2. “A Man for All Markets: From Las Vegas to Wall Street” - Edward O. Thorpe;
3. “The Psychology of Trading: Tools and Techniques for Minding the Markets” - B. Steenbadger;
4. " Beyond Candlesticks " - Steve Nison;
5. "How to Play and Win at a Stock Exchange" - Alexander Elder.

You can find useful content on exchange topics on thematic sites and, of course, in the NordFX educational section. There's just a huge amount of it. And when you become grounded in theory, you will naturally be able to make significantly more informed decisions when opening and closing trades.

However, the theoretical base may not be enough. The psychology of a trader has a huge impact on the financial result. And if you are still not confident in your abilities, such areas of social trading as PAMM accounts and CopyTrading can come to the rescue.

Choosing a Currency Pair and Trading Strategy

It is enough to read one book about currency, commodity, or world stock exchanges to understand the importance of system trading. In this case, you can do the following:
1. Create your own strategy based on the obtained theoretical data;
2. Take someone else's, adjusting it for yourself.

The currency pair will play an important role. We recommend that beginners pay attention to assets where the spread value is minimal. These are currency pairs such as: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, and a number of others.

If you wish to work with CFDs on stocks, NordFX has allocated a separate Stocks trading account to do so. Many tens of shares of the world's largest companies are available for trading on it.

Testing Theory on a Demo Account and Gaining Skills

The major advancement in the exchange business, made possible in recent decades by computers and the Internet, is electronic trading. Modern platforms store a huge historical array of quotes, on the basis of which you can automatically conduct a thorough analysis, form a trading strategy and test your ideas. It is worth learning the strategy tester built into MetaTrader-4 here.

Of course, the demo account should also be borne in mind. Thanks to it, you can trade in real time with virtual money. But the demo account has one huge drawback. The trader here does not risk losing real capital, therefore, they act much more recklessly than when trading in the real market.

To understand psychology and how important it is in this profession, you can test ideas on a Fix account. The minimum deposit is only $10 here, so it's a great way to feel all on yourself: the grief of defeat, excitement, fear and, of course, the joy of victory.

Smooth Transition to Real Trading

The preliminary experience gained on a demo account allows you to proceed to the final stage - to start using a real trading account. It is important to be aware that there is a huge difference between the real and the demo accounts. As mentioned above, it lies in the perception of loss. In the case of real money, losses are always taken to heart. And it is critical at this stage not to do the following stupid things:
1. Try to deviate from the terms of your trading strategy;
2. Start to recoup;
3. Forget about cutting losses;
4. Start waiting through drawdown;
5. Succumb to the excitement.

When you start trading real money, learn to stop on time, work on your mistakes. A couple of hours spent analyzing the transaction report can reveal the strengths and weaknesses not only of your trading strategy, but also of your own character. And this is often more important than knowledge in technical or fundamental analysis of Forex.

With What Amount You Can Start Trading on Forex

Among beginners, there is an opinion that a small amount of capital is enough to start making serious money. For example, a Fix account allows you to make a trade with a “capital” of just one dollar. Is that enough to begin with? From our point of view, it is. But only for a start, and not to buy a villa, a yacht and a personal plane.

Examples are often advertised on the Internet in which traders manage to get astronomical profits of hundreds, thousands, and even tens of thousands of percent. And the most interesting thing is that this is not a lie, it really happens. But this is a very risky game, which then, most often, leads to the collapse and loss of all funds.

Imagine that, having accelerated your car on the Formula 1 track to 300 km/h, you then jump out into a city intersection. How will this end? Everyone has a chance of staying alive, but it is small and has nothing to do with a professional approach. Any rider will say the speed must meet road conditions. Likewise in Forex, you need to learn to hurry slowly, give up crazy ideas and set realistic goals for yourself. Everyone has a chance of success. However, you should not treat trading in financial markets as a casino where luck decides everything. Knowledge and experience decide everything here.

Though, some luck won't hurt either...


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  #514  
Old 23-01-2021, 11:46
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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for January 25 – 29, 2021


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. We published a chart seven days ago that clearly showed how the correlation between the S&P500 index and EUR/USD was broken in early January. But now everything is back to normal: the S&P500 continued its growth, reaching a historic maximum of 3859.84 on January 21, and the EUR/USD pair went up with it, fully justifying the forecast of the majority (65%) of experts. Groping on Monday the local bottom at 1.2053, the euro then rose to 1.2190, the final chord sounded slightly lower, at 1.2170.
The end of the week was quite calm, thanks to the head of the European Central Bank. Christine Lagarde was never able to weaken the European currency, but also did not allow it to seriously overtake the dollar. And this can be considered a certain success.
In her speech following the ECB meeting on Thursday 21 January, Madame Lagarde explained what is good and what is bad. The "Good" section includes the start of vaccinations, the success of the EU economic recovery and the reduction of political uncertainty in the US. The "Bad" section includes the worsening epidemiological situation, increased lockdowns, the likelihood of a double recession in the eurozone and low inflation, which is reluctant to grow because of the strong euro. At the same time, the ECB refused again at its meeting last Thursday to adjust monetary policy, only stating that “the package of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme may not be used in full.” That news pushed the euro up. However, not by much since no specifics followed. And what criteria will be used to determine the scale of PEPP has remained a mystery to investors;

- GBP/USD. The pound grew along with the euro for the first half of the week. And it even broke through the upper boundary of the channel 1.3450-1.3700, reaching the height of 1.3745. However, the ending of the five-day period turned out to be blurry. The rally in the pound was not supported either by retail sales (an increase of 0.3% instead of the forecasted 1.2%), or business activity indicators: in the service sector, the Markit index fell from 49.4 to 38.8. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson added pessimism, saying that the third round of the lockdown could last well into the summer. As a result, the pound made a reversal, returned within the designated channel, and finished at 1.3680;

- USD/JPY. Recall that the main forecast, supported by 65% of analysts, said that this pair would hold within the downward medium-term channel, which began in the last days of March 2020 of the year. Levels 103.60 and 103.00 were called as supports.
That scenario turned out to be perfectly correct. The pair moves for the second week in a row unsuccessfully trying to break the upper bound of this channel. The first attempt last week was made on Tuesday January 19, when it bounced off the support at 103.60 and reached 104.07. The next rebound, on Thursday January 22, from the level of 103.30, was stopped at 103.90, after which the pair ended the working week where it had already visited repeatedly in January, in the 103.80 zone;

- cryptocurrencies. Is this atemporary correction or the beginning of a new crypto winter? This question became dominant last week. Bitcoin dipped below $29.000 on Friday December 22, which, of course, scared many investors. Guggenheim investment director Scott Minerd predicts a further decline down to $20,000 - the zone from which the explosive rally started in the second half of December 2020, which raised the BTC quotes by 100%.
Optimists reassure: over the year, bitcoin has risen in price by 5.75 times, from $7,300 on January 01, 2020 to $41.900 on January 08, 2021, so a correction by "some" 30% is, they say, not a reason for panic. In addition, a number of analysts note that this time the fall of bitcoin is not accompanied by an exit to fiat. Investors, fixing profits on the main cryptocurrency, do not leave the digital market, but open positions on more promising, in their opinion, altcoins. For example, on ethereum, the price of which has increased more than 11 times over the year. And if by the evening of January 22, the BTC/USD pair lost 22% relative to the maximum, then the decline in ETH/USD was less than 10%.
This version is also supported by data on the crypto market capitalization. In seven days, total capitalization, including bitcoin, decreased by 9.5% (from $1.028 trillion to $0.933 trillion). At the same time, the capitalization of altcoins remained at the same level of $300 billion. It was mainly bitcoin that was losing, the dominance index of which decreased from 67.48% to 64.31%. The share of Ethereum, on the contrary, increased from 13.52% to 15.01%.
As for the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, it finally came out of the overbought zone and fell from 88 to 40 points in a week. This value corresponds to a neutral state, when it is too late to open short positions on the BTC/USD pair, and too early to open long positions. Although, according to analysts, it is during such price rollbacks that "whales" begin to actively replenish their bitcoin wallets, buying up coins of small alarmist investors.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Analyzing the results of the last ECB meeting, we can conclude that, despite the not very clear comments of Ms. Lagarde, the mood of the European regulator is still hawkish. The bank's Governing Council noted that EU debt markets had shown a rise in yields and concerns about a rapid strengthening of the euro had eased. Now we must wait for the meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which will be held on January 28. The interest rate on the dollar is likely to remain at the same level of 0.25%, so the main interest will be the comments of the regulator's management regarding the monetary policy in the near future. Special attention will be drawn to them also because this will be the first Fed meeting since the inauguration of the new US President Joe Biden.
Of course, we will also see the release of a fairly large volume of macro statistics next week, including the volume of orders for capital goods and durable goods in the United States (to be announced on Wednesday January 27), as well as data on the GDP of the United States and Germany, which will be released, respectively, on Thursday January 28 and Friday January 29.
In the meantime, the opinions of experts have been distributed as follows. 45% of analysts supported by graphical analysis on D1, 75% of oscillators on ?4, 90% of trend indicators on H4 and 75% on D1, side with the bulls. The nearest resistances are 1.2275, 1.2300 and 1.2350. The medium-term target is the same - rise to a height of 1.2500-1.2550.
The opposite view is held by 55% of experts. 25% oscillators on H4 signal that the pair is overbought. The nearest support is 1.2130 and 1.2060. The main objective is the zone 1.1800-1.1900;

- GBP/USD. At the time of writing the review, oscillator readings on H4 look pretty chaotic. As for the remaining indicators, most of them are still painted green. Thus, 75% of oscillators and graphical analysis on D1, as well as 75% of trend indicators on H4 and 100% on D1 look to the north.
But as for analysts, they, for the most part (65%), do not share the bullish optimism of technical analysis. The reason, as mentioned above, is the poor performance of the British economy and the statement of the country's Prime Minister Boris Johnson warning that the third round of the lockdown could last well into the summer. This is forcing investors to not just revise their forecasts for the pound, but also to re-start discussing a scenario with negative Bank of England interest rates.
The support levels are zone 1.3615-1.3635, then 1.3525 and finally the lower limit of the three-week side channel 1.3450. Resistance levels ¬- the upper limit of the channel 1.3700, 1.3745 and 1.3800;

- USD/JPY. At its meeting on Thursday January 21, the Bank of Japan, as well as the ECB, did not adjust the parameters of its monetary policy. The expectations for GDP were slightly lowered over the past, 2020, but the regulator raised its forecasts for 2021, considering that despite everything, the country's economy will continue to grow.
Based on this, 70% of experts favored further smooth strengthening of the yen and the descent of the pair to support 103.00, and in case of increased volatility - another 50 points lower. The nearest support is 103.30.
An alternative scenario, for which 30% of experts voted, assumes a breakdown of the upper border of the descending channel, and the rise of the pair first to the resistance of 104.00, then 104.40. The next goal of the bulls is zone 104.70-105.00;

- cryptocurrencies. It is no secret how highly volatile and risky bitcoin is. Its explosive growth was driven by large institutional investors who began to enter the crypto market in the second half of 2020, fueled by the COVID-19 pandemic and fiscal stimulus from the US Federal Reserve, which cut interest rates and flooded the market with cheap dollars.
And now analysts are talking about the fact that cryptocurrencies could only be a temporary measure to preserve capital, and that now institutions are phasing out purchases of digital assets.
According to JPMorgan Chase strategists, the key to the short-term outlook for bitcoin's price is the world's largest digital asset management company Grayscale Investments, with a crypto portfolio currently valued at $23 billion. According to the calculations of bank analysts, for the BTC/USD pair to break through the resistance of $40,000, it is necessary that Grayscale Bitcoin Trust maintain the pace of inflow funds of $100 million per day in the coming days and weeks. Otherwise, a deep correction can be expected.
At the time of writing the forecast, the pair's quotes are in the region of $32,500. This is a fairly strong support/resistance level for the past three weeks. And if capitalization does not go up, and the price again manages to fall below $30,000, one can expect increased pressure from the bears and a new wave of active sales. 65% of experts agree with this.
But there are also professional market participants who maintain a moderately bullish mood, which is confirmed by positive premiums for March futures, + 3.5-5.0%. And the head of investment company Pantera Capital Dan Morehead expects to see "bitcoin for $45,000 or even more" in February. However, he advises traders and other industry participants to be as prudent as possible.
The statements of the new US administration also inspire some optimism. So the candidate for the US Treasury and former Fed Chairman Janet Yellen, speaking about possible improvements to the traditional financial system, called for encouraging the use of cryptocurrencies, if it, of course, occurs within the framework of the law. But time will tell what these laws will be. Although ... already now those who wish can use the services of ... a fortune teller.
As Reuters reported, fortune teller Maren Altman from New York makes her predictions of the bitcoin rate based on the movement of the stars. She predicted the beginning of the January correction of bitcoin absolutely accurately, since on that day the trajectory of Mercury (the price of BTC) should have been crossed by Saturn (the limiting indicator). Looking ahead, Ms. Altman sees “some favorable signals at the end of the month and especially in February and early March.” “However, a big correction will begin in mid-March,” the fortune teller says. “Mid-April also looks pessimistic. May is bullish.”
By the way, Ms. Altman already has more than a million followers on social networks, among whom there may be large institutional investors. So, it is possible that it is she, together with the stars, and not Grayscale Investments, who runs the crypto market ?.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  #515  
Old 27-01-2021, 15:08
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CryptoNews


- Bank of Singapore, one of the largest Asian financial institutions, has once again called bitcoin a promising instrument. According to experts, the main cryptocurrency has proven that it can remain a profitable asset even in times of crisis. A new report by the Bank of Singapore says that bitcoin has lost its status as a “risky” financial instrument over the years, becoming “relatively stable”, and may not only compete with gold, but also displace it from the first place in terms of investment safety.
At the same time, the bank's experts believe that "we are unlikely to see widespread adoption of bitcoin soon, since regulators simply will not allow users to independently decide how transactions with millions or even billions will be performed."

- The majority of cryptocurrency investors are currently people aged 45+, we are talking about residents of almost 80 countries. The research was carried out by experts of the Wirex platform in conjunction with the Stellar Development Foundation, who studied the income in the cryptocurrency industry in 24 months. As a result, it turned out that only 22% of investors are between 25 and 45 years old. Back in 2018, the situation was fundamentally the opposite. Then, many experts noted that cryptocurrencies are assets of the so-called millennials who are ready to invest in new instruments. However, over the past two years, many middle-aged people have joined the industry, deciding to convert some of their assets to bitcoin or other coins.

- Experts from the Weiss rating agency believe that bitcoin could reach the $50,000 level in 2021. “The entry of institutional capital into the cryptocurrency industry has become one of the fundamental events. Grayscale and MicroStrategy have already invested in digital assets. Other large companies and funds are thinking about investing in bitcoin. If the inflow of investments continues to increase, then we will see the main coin at 50 thousand dollars and even more expensive very soon, " according to Weiss.

- The head of the ARK Investment Management investment company, Katie Wood, believes that more and more companies will store part of their reserves in bitcoin in the future, hedging their risks in this way. She stated this in an interview with Yahoo Finance. “This is especially true of technology companies that understand this and are comfortable with cryptocurrencies,” added the head of ARK Investment.

- Former head of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) Janet Yellen became the first woman in history to serve as US Treasury Secretary. When heading the Fed from 2014-2018, Yellen called the first cryptocurrency a speculative asset. However, following her nomination as finance minister in November 2020, she changed her rhetoric, promising to closely monitor the industry and consider ways to encourage the legitimate use of digital assets. According to her, regulators can use the advantages of cryptocurrencies to improve the efficiency of the financial system.

- US resident Simon Berne created a mining farm of six Nvidia RTX 3080 video cards and placed it in the trunk of his BMW i8 sports car. (The price of such a car is about $147,500). According to Berne, this is a great way for him to make money even while traveling. He made the assembly of the farm himself to annoy gamers. The farm receives energy from the car battery, to which it is connected using a DC inverter. The battery power of the BMW i8 is 3500W, while the mining plant only consumes 1500W.

- Crypto bank Galaxy Digital by Mike Novogratz will launch new funds based on Ethereum in February. We are talking about the Galaxy Ethereum Fund targeted at institutional investors and two funds for retail clients. As for the Galaxy Ethereum Fund, 1% will be charged for management there on investments from 100 thousand dollars and 1.25% for smaller investments. The threshold for participation will be $25,000. In the other two funds, the fee would be 0.75% for Class A shares and 1% for Class B shares. The launch of Galaxy Digital funds coincides with the start of Ethereum futures trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).

- Most of the cryptocurrency supporters are familiar with the idiom "to the moon". And now, 22-year-old American Jimmy Donaldson known for his crazy antics, such as giving away $1 million and building the world's largest Lego tower, decided to turn that expression into reality. (Donaldson is also known as YouTuber MrBeast with over 50 million subscribers.)
“Astrobotics and NASA are sending a lander to the moon at the end of this year, we were able to find a place on it to install a hard drive. And I thought it would be great to let you guys put whatever you want there,” wrote MrBeast. He announced that for $10, anyone could send him a photo, which he would save on this hard drive. With the money received, Donaldson plans to purchase about 30 bitcoins (about $1 million), which will also be sent to the moon. The Youtuber called this project "The first digital time capsule in the Universe."


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  #516  
Old 29-01-2021, 06:46
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What is Forex Market


What is Forex? This is a huge over-the-counter marketplace where various currencies are exchanged. Its turnover exceeds 5 trillion dollars a day! (For comparison: the turnover of all world stock markets is "just" about 85 billion dollars, that is, almost 60 times less).

Forex was created for international commercial activity, but today there are not only companies conducting such work, but also private traders who have received access to trade, as well as investors whose main purpose is to profit from fluctuating quotations.

In this article, we will look at the history of the emergence and formation of the international currency exchange market, the main participants in this market, as well as the principles of trading.

Is Forex an Exchange or Not?

You can often find on the internet the opinions of traders who say that Forex is an exchange. In fact, this is not the case. An exchange is a separate platform for trading. Forex is an over-the-counter market, that is, there is no common platform for currency exchange transactions.

At its core, the Forex market is a set of market makers (banks) that offer their services to everyone who wants to exchange certain currencies. Some banks are merging into larger aggregators to increase liquidity. Subsequently, all those who want to participate in trades connect to market makers and gain access to their Depth of Market (table of orders for buying and selling currencies).

Forex Market History

We owe the emergence of the modern international currency market to the 37th President of the United States, Richard Nixon. It was he who abolished the gold standard and the possibility of converting American currency into gold.

The Bretton Woods Agreement was signed In 1944, which set the dollar standard. The American currency, in turn, turned out to be pegged to gold. However, this system lasted less than 30 years.

The Smithsonian Accord was signed In 1971 in response to the economic crisis of the time. In fact, it was this document that caused the subsequent devaluation of the American currency. The agreement was signed by 10 states at the Smithsonian Institution.

The agreement resulted in three key decisions that the American president described as historic. First and foremost, the criteria for revising the exchange rates were agreed. This led to the subsequent decline of the US dollar. At the same time, the value of other currencies of countries from the so-called “Group of Ten” rose against the dollar.

Another important result is the setting of a limit for exchange rate fluctuations. This made it possible to temporarily exclude floating exchange rates and their sharp fall.

Finally, the United States agreed to remove the 10% foreign duty surcharge. As a result of this agreement, the price of gold rose to $ 38 per ounce, exchange rate fluctuations increased to 2.25% in relation to par, and, finally, the value of many currencies changed.

Despite the fact that the Smithsonian Agreement played an important role, it was the Kingston Meeting of the IMF member countries that laid the foundation for the modern Forex market. Let's look at the main changes in the world monetary system:
- Cancellation of the exchange of dollars for gold. From this point on, no other currency is tied to the gold standard. Gold has become a commodity market instrument.
- IMF member countries have been able to choose their own exchange rate regime. In total, there are three main types: a free floating rate, limited (a corridor to some currencies and floating to others) and fixed.
- There is a new type of international means of payment: SDR (Special Drawing Rights).
- Countries have received more opportunities to conduct independent financial policies.

Forex Market Key Participants

Forex market participants include banks, various funds and financial organizations, brokers, dealing centers , private traders and investors. Let's take a closer look at each of the groups.

Central banks are among the key players in the currency market. Their main task is to maintain the stability of the national currency exchange rate and fulfill certain economic and financial goals.

In modern realities, Central Banks have several mandates, among them, for example, achieving certain inflation or labour market targets. The Central Banks achieve their goals, among other things, by targeting (controlling) the exchange rate levels in the international arena.

Central banks can influence the currency market through direct interventions, as well as through interest rate changes or verbal influence (when executives make comments in which they can point out too overvalued or, conversely, undervalued national currency).

Commercial banks are the main players in the international currency market. The vast majority of operations go through them. They are intermediaries between companies engaged in foreign economic activity. Commercial banks are also aggregators and providers of liquidity, that is, market makers.

Various financial organizations and funds can also be noted here. Their main goal is to increase clients' capital and work with assets. The best known is George Soros's Quantum. Also, notable organizations include “Omaha Oracle” Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway. Although the latter is unlikely to resort to investment strategies aimed at dealing with currencies. They definitely use Forex services to buy securities on local stock exchanges.

Dealers and brokers are another group of Forex market participants. These are companies providing services to private traders and investors. Here, clients can open trading accounts, make transactions using a variety of trading platforms, undergo training, work with analytics and much more.

What is the difference between a broker and a dealing center? The key is that the broker acts as an intermediary between the trader and the market. The dealing center is also a market maker, that is, it itself acts as a market for its clients.

However, at present there are almost no purely dealing centers. All companies, basically, work on a mixed principle. For clients with small trading accounts and turnovers, they act as a counterparty, and for larger traders and investors - as a broker, that is, an intermediary connecting traders with liquidity providers such as large international banks.

Traders and Basic Principles of Work in Financial Markets

As mentioned above, traders are also participants in the Forex market. They, among other things, maintain the level of liquidity, which is a positive point for currency trading. These market participants perform their trading operations through the trading terminal offered by the broker.

Before starting trading, a trader needs to complete some preparatory activities. First of all, you need to learn how to open a trading account and where to do so. To do this, you can familiarize yourself with the trading conditions of the broker NordFX and open your account with this company.

The Forex trading scheme is quite simple - you open a trading account, download the trader's terminal and start making trades. However, in order to trade Forex profitably, this is clearly not enough. You need to gain some knowledge, develop your own trading system, fund your trading account and carefully monitor your risks. At NordFX, transfers to a trading account can be made from bank cards and accounts, as well as through electronic payment systems and even cryptocurrencies.

As for the trading platform, NordFX experts have selected the most popular software in the professional community - MetaTrader (MT4). Moreover, such a platform is available both for desktop solutions (PCs and laptops) and for the most popular mobile operating systems (Android and iOS).

The MetaTrader terminal is one of the most functional solutions on the Forex market. It offers a rich toolkit not only for opening positions and tracking quotes, but also for analytical work, using trading robot advisors and even testing strategies.

Moreover, MetaTrader is written in an open source language, which allows you to create your own indicators, scripts and algorithmic programs (advisors) that will trade for you in a fully automatic mode.

To work successfully on Forex, a trader must be familiar with the following aspects:
- Types of market analysis.
- Work with analytical tools (graphics, indicators, news).
- Creation of one's own trading strategy and system.
- Learning the basics of money and risk management.
- The psychology of trading.

Trading is carried out with real money. But before you start, you can try your hand at a demo account . This is a special training account that allows a trader not only to study the trading terminal without any financial risk, but also to work out their own strategies.

You can open a demo account at the brokerage company NordFX. All quotes that come to the terminal on such a training account are real. That is, you will be able to try your hand at real market conditions.

Once you have completed your training, you need to top up your trading account and then you can get to work. As noted above, trading strategies are fundamental. They allow the trader to predict future asset fluctuations in the Forex market.

Such strategies can be both borrowed and created by the broker'sclient itself, if they have enough knowledge to do so. The most popular among traders are indicator trading tactics, based on indicators of technical analysis.

They are easy to find in the MT4 terminal. But you need to carefully study how each indicator works before using it. Today, four main groups of such instruments are distinguished:
- Trending.
- Oscillators.
- Indicators that reflect the volatility and strength of the trend.

Working with the MetaTrader trading platform, you can simultaneously use one or more indicators already built into it and add to it your own ones created by you or other traders.

Some Forex Trading Recommendations

It is not enough to have a good trading strategy for successful trading. It is very important to follow certain rules and recommendations that we give below.

Study the asset carefully.

Before you start working with a particular currency, you need to carefully study it. It is important to pay attention not only to the chart, but also to the schedule of important economic events and publications. Among them, for example, meetings of Central Banks, business activity indices, data on the labor market, statistics on inflation.

Even if you do not plan to engage in news trading in the future, you will need to know the exact time of the news release, since these are periods of sharp jumps in rates and increased volatility in the financial markets.

Work systematically.

The biggest problem for many novice traders is that they do not know how to work systematically. Even with a rather interesting and profitable strategy behind them, such market participants, under the influence of emotions, often deviate from its main provisions and open trades at random, intuitively. As a result, they lose their money easily and quickly.

In trading, discipline is one of the key factors. Traders who do not have it do not succeed. Those who strictly follow their trading system are much more likely to increase their deposit.

Controlling emotions.

Emotions and psychological state play a very important role in trading. You need to learn to rule out negative thoughts from your work. The mistake of most traders is that, having made one or several unsuccessful trades, they start trading in order to win back. It happens the other way around *— under the influence of greed, a person opens one trade after another instead of stopping in time.

A professional trader makes decisions based solely on the situation on the chart, their own analysis and trading system. Emotions are completely excluded from their work. If you cannot cope with them, it is better to use the opportunities for automatic or social trading that the broker NordFX provides to its clients - this is the use of robot advisors in MT4 and PAMM accounts, and the automatic copying of trades of experienced traders in the Copy Trading system.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

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  #517  
Old 31-01-2021, 12:47
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Default Re: NordFX.com - ECN/STP, MT5, CQG, Multiterminal broker

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for February 01-05, 2021


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The trade wars unleashed by the previous US President Trump have just seemingly subsided, but now we can "congratulate" everyone on the start of a new - currency - war. And it could prove equally exciting and unpredictable. This time, it was the European Central Bank, headed by Christine Lagarde, that declared hostilities. The adversary was, as you might guess, the US Federal Reserve System.
We have repeatedly written that the growth of the euro was caused by the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. The European currency rose against the dollar by more than 1700 points from March 20, 2020 to January 15, 2021. For the time being, the ECB leadership pretended that the problem lies not in the current level of the EUR/USD rate, but in the rate of its growth. But it turns out now that the current quotes are also of great importance for the EU economy, and that it would not be bad for them to go down.
The heads of the Banks of Finland and the Netherlands have started to speak actively about the fact that the ECB is very concerned about the euro exchange rate and should take decisive steps to stimulate inflation, hinting at a further decrease in interest rates. And Janet Yelen will definitely not like it. Recall that the former head of the Federal Reserve, and now the new US Treasury Secretary, Janet Yelen promised in every possible way to stop other countries' attempts to artificially reduce the rates of their currencies.
So, we can assume that the challenge has been posed and accepted, and the duel has begun. And right from the start, the EU has been let down... by its main support, Germany. It turns out that inflation in this country in January jumped from -0.7% to + 1.6%, which will certainly affect the growth of the total indicator of the Eurozone. Whether this will entail an accelerated curtailment of the ECB's quantitative stimulus (QE) program remains in question. The market is at a crossroads, which can be clearly seen from the EUR/USD quotes: the pair has been moving in a rather narrow sideways channel 1.2055-1.2185 for the last two and a half weeks. And even the fall of US stock indices on January 27-29 could not push it out of this corridor. As for the end of the week, the pair put the final point at 1.2135;

- GBP/USD. Last week, most analysts (65%) refused to share the bullish optimism of technical analysis. The reason is the poor performance of the British economy and the statement of the country's Prime Minister Boris Johnson warning that the third round of the lockdown could last well into the summer. This is forcing investors to not just revise their forecasts for the pound, but also to re-start discussing a scenario with negative Bank of England interest rates.
Looking at the chart of the pair, we can state that the bullish momentum has exhausted itself for the time being. Even fresh positive data on the UK labor market, published on January 26, did not help the pound. The pair cannot break above resistance 1.3750 for the second week in a row. Its volatility has also plummeted. If it exceeded 400 points a week at the end of December, the figure has now fallen to 150 points. As for the end of the five-day period, the final chord sounded in the zone of another strong resistance level, at 1.3700;

- USD/JPY. The medium-term trend for this pair was laid back at the end of March 2020, when it began to slide smoothly along the descending channel. There have been many discussions among experts, whether the pair will be able to reverse this trend and break through the upper limit of this channel.
It was only 30% of analysts who voted for such a development a week ago, but they were the ones who were right. The zone 104.70-105.00 was indicated as the target of the bulls, which was reached by the pair USD/JPY on Friday, January 29. Unlike the euro and the pound, it reacted quite actively to both positive reports on the labor market and the US trade balance. But the main impetus was given by the redistribution of financial flows caused by the fall of the American stock indices S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq. As a result, the pair reached the 10-week high at 104.95, and ended the trading session slightly lower at 104.70;

- cryptocurrencies. We were certainly joking, but it seems the forecast of a fortune teller from New York is starting to come true. Last week we talked about Maren Altman, who determines the trends of the BTC/USD pair based on the stars movement. So, she absolutely accurately predicted the beginning of the January correction of bitcoin, since the trajectory of Mercury (the price of BTC) was to be crossed by Saturn (the limiting indicator) on that day. Her latest forecast spoke of "some favorable signals at the end of January."
For the past three weeks, the main cryptocurrency has been clinging to support in the $30,000 zone, trying to break even lower and thereby instilling pessimism in many experts and investors. For example, Scott Minerd, the director of investments at Guggenheim Partners, said that the bitcoin rate would not stay above $35 thousand or even above $30 thousand, since there is no institutional demand now that can support the quotes at these levels.
However, the end of the month showed that the fortune teller could win in a duel between a fortune teller and an expert, . Having found the local bottom at $29,200 on Wednesday January 27, the pair turned around and reached $38,100 on Friday January 29. But then another sharp reversal followed, and it dropped to the level of $33,500. So, the outcome of the fight at the time of writing the review remains in question.
Scott Minerd is certainly right that big professional investors are not digital currency fans at all. And what happened in the second half of 2020 can rather be considered an experiment on their part, which they went to, constantly looking back at the reaction of regulators. But the director of Guggenheim Partners may not have taken into account that, in the absence of institutions, retail investors can also move bitcoin up, as was the case in 2017. Moreover, if then they were young enthusiasts, now the middle generation has joined them.
A study conducted by specialists of the Wirex platform together with the company Stellar Development Foundation showed that most of cryptocurrency investors are not at all young millennials, as the case was recently, but people over 45 years old. Investors aged 25 to 45 are only 22%.
The active buyback of bitcoin after the drawdown below $30,000 and the absence of panic sell-off showed that many investors still believe in the growth of bitcoin to new heights. The total capitalization of the crypto market once again broke the psychological mark of $1 trillion over the past seven days, rising from $0.933 trillion to $1.08. As for the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, it also began to grow along with the growth of quotations. If at the end of last week the index was at around 40 points, it climbed to 77 on Friday, January 29. This is already close to the overbought zone, but the maximum values are still far away. Recall that the index values were constantly in the zone 95-98 out of 100 possible during the rally in December - the first week of January.


continued below...
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  #518  
Old 31-01-2021, 12:49
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Default Re: NordFX.com - ECN/STP, MT5, CQG, Multiterminal broker

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The currency war referred to in the first part of the review is not a matter of one week and not one month, it can stretch for years. The US economy “shrank” by 3.5% in 2020. And this is not only the first negative indicator since 2009, but also the largest drop since the end of World War II. However, investors expect a low interest rate and huge cash injections into the US economy ($900 billion from Donald Trump and $1,900 billion from Joe Biden), together with successful vaccination against COVID-19, will help it return to growth in 2021. Although, this will happen gradually, incrementally.
In contrast to the United States, support for the Eurozone economy was much more modest - €750 billion, therefore, the Eurozone GDP growth will be more moderate (according to forecasts + 1.5%). And the rate of vaccination is lower here than overseas. If we add to this the efforts of the ECB to weaken the common European currency, we can expect that the EUR/USD pair will be under certain pressure. But, as already mentioned, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yelen will make every effort to prevent this from happening.
After two and a half weeks of sideways movement of the EUR/USD pair in the channel 1.2055-1.2185, technical indicators are in confusion, giving no clear signals in either direction. As for the experts, most of them (65%) expect that in February, despite all, the dollar will continue to lose its positions and the pair will return to the 1.2200-1.2300 zone. The target is the January high of 1.2350, the nearest resistance is 1.2185. The nearest support is 1.2055, the main goal of the bears is the zone 1.1800-1.1900.
As for important economic events, there will be a lot of them in the coming week. Data on business activity and the labor market in the US will be published on Monday February 01 and Wednesday February 03. We will find out preliminary data on GDP On Tuesday February 02, and on the Eurozone consumer market on the next day. Finally, on February 05, on the first Friday of the month, data on the number of new jobs created in the United States outside the agricultural sector (NFP) will traditionally be released. This indicator is predicted to show an increase from -140K to +85K, which may lead to a short-term strengthening of the dollar, although this is often taken into account in advance by the market;

- GBP/USD. We will be waiting for a meeting of the Bank of England on Thursday February 04, where questions will be resolved about the planned volume of asset purchases under the programme to support the economy, as well as the interest rate reduction. Will Britain's regulator surprise investors? According to our forecasts, it is unlikely. It is likely that the volume of purchases of bonds on the open market will remain the same - ? 895 billion, and the rate will remain at 0.1%. Therefore, the market will wait for any signals, explicit or implicit, from the head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey, whose speeches are scheduled for February 04 and 05.
As for analysts, 70% of them believe that the GBP/USD pair will still manage to break through the resistance at 1.3750 and rise to the height of 1.3800 for at least a short time. Graphical analysis and 85% of oscillators on D1, as well as 100% of trend indicators on H4 and D1 agree with this. At the same time, 60% of experts, along with graphical analysis, believe that after a dash to the north, the pair will return to the zone 1.3615-1.3700. The next support level is around 1.3500;

- USD/JPY. Most experts (70%), supported by graphical analysis on D1, believe that the pair's movement to the south will continue. However, now it has changed echelon, and the upper border of the medium-term descending channel will now become a support line for it. The main resistance level is 105.00, support is at 104.00, 103.55 and 103.00 levels.
The remaining 30% of analysts expect that the pair will be able to rise even higher and reach the zone of 105.70-106.10.
Among the trend indicators, 100% look up at ?4 and 85% at D1. As for the oscillators, 75% on H4 and 60% on D1 are colored green, the rest give signals that the pair is overbought;

- cryptocurrencies. According to a number of experts, the January drawdown is now fully redeemed, and the BTC/USD pair is ready to grow to $50,000. Those who wanted to take profits and transfer their crypto assets to fiat have already done so. And now the bulls are regaining strength, forming another upward momentum. Central bank interest rates, which are close to zero, the huge scale of fiscal stimulus, putting pressure on the dollar in the first place, and stock market fluctuations, drawing attention to Bitcoin as a hedge asset, can still act as arguments for the rally to continue.
It is likely that 2021 will be the scene of a struggle between the crypto market and regulators. And if we set aside the optimism of crypto fans, it remains questionable whether digital assets can seriously strengthen their positions.
So, for example, Bank of Singapore, which is one of the largest Asian financial organizations, called bitcoin a promising instrument that can not only compete with gold, but also shift it from the first place on investments security. At the same time, the bank's experts believe that "we are unlikely to see widespread adoption of bitcoin soon, since regulators simply will not allow users to independently decide how transactions with millions or even billions of dollars will be performed." Governments are making it increasingly clear that they will not allow attacks on their main instrument of power - national currencies.
As for the second most important cryptocurrency, the market is waiting for the launch of futures on Ethereum. It is this factor that allowed the ETH/USD pair to hold its positions even in the days of January, when bitcoin sought to break through support in the $30,000 zone.
Recall that one of the factors that allowed bitcoin to surpass the $20,000 mark at the end of 2017 was the launch of futures for this cryptocurrency by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). And now, on February 8, 2021, the same exchange is awaiting regulatory approval of the application for listing Ethereum futures, which may lead to a further increase in its quotations.
And in conclusion, another funny life hack from the life of cryptocurrencies. Last time we talked about an American fortune teller who predicts bitcoin prices by observing the movement of the planets. Now we are talking about another resident of the United States, Simon Berne, who placed a mining farm in the trunk of his BMW i8 sports car. The farm receives energy from the car battery, to which it is connected using a DC inverter. The battery power of the BMW i8 is 3500W, while the mining plant only consumes 1500W. According to Berne, this is a great way for him to make money even while traveling.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

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  #519  
Old 03-02-2021, 15:06
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CryptoNews


- Bitcoin price could drop again ahead of Chinese New Year. According to a number of experts, this time the price of the main coin will be affected by the actions of small investors who will begin to transfer crypto assets to fiat to buy New Year's gifts.
Currently, it is in China that the bulk of the owners of bitcoin wallets with savings of up to 10 thousand dollars are concentrated. “Even if institutional investors do not react to the possible strengthening of the dollar and stock markets, small investors will definitely start withdrawing funds before the holidays. The New Year is usually celebrated very lavishly in China. In addition, the charts for the past few years show that exactly on the eve of the holidays, the capitalization of bitcoin is greatly decreasing, the specialists of the investment company Stack Funds explain the situation.

- According to Cryptofeed.news, a bug was found in Apple devices, due to which attackers can gain access to cryptocurrency wallets. Pete Kim, chief engineer of the Coinbase trading platform, noted that the bug represents the ability to activate remote access mode from other devices. This means that criminals who can enable this option will be able to get to banking apps or wallets.
“So far there is no evidence that the bug could have been used to steal digital assets, but it’s better just not to bring it up,” explained Kim. Apple has not yet commented on this software flaw.

- The first cryptocurrency is on the cusp of widespread adoption by the traditional market. This was stated by the founder of Tesla and SpaceX Elon Musk during a conversation on the Clubhouse media platform. According to him, many friends urged him to buy bitcoin. And today he has to admit that he was "late to appear at the party."
“I'm a bitcoin supporter. I believe the financial world is close to its wide acceptance. But I have no opinion about other cryptocurrencies, "- Forbes quotes the words of the billionaire.
Elon Musk also promised that he would be more careful with his comments because of the great impact they have on the market. Recall that he has recently changed his Twitter profile description to "#bitcoin" with the cryptocurrency logo, after which the coin's price jumped sharply, exceeding $37,000.

- On February 2, MicroStrategy, an analytical software company, bought an additional 295 BTC for a total of $10 million. The average purchase price was $33,808. In total, the company acquired 71,079 BTC starting from August 2020, spending $1.145 billion on it. At the time of writing, the total value of bitcoins in MicroStrategy's reserves is $ 2.55 billion, that is, its return on investment (ROI) in six months was about 120%.

- The US authorities have accused a California resident of running an illegal cryptocurrency exchange and money laundering. Hugo Mejia, 49, from Ontario reportedly launched his service in May 2018. He advertised the platform on the Internet and met with clients in person in a cafe and corresponded with them using encrypted messages. During this period, Mejia's clients exchanged more than $13m worth of assets with his help.
From May 2019 to March 2020, the manager communicated several times with a front buyer who informed him he was an Australian drug dealer. In total, the front client conducted five transactions worth more than $250,000, after which Mejia was arrested. He will appear in the U.S. District Court in March and faces up to 25 years in prison.

- The number of unique active BTC addresses reached 22.3 million in January amid growth in network activity and the rate of the first cryptocurrency, which rose to $42,000 on January 8. “This is the highest rate in the history of bitcoin to date,” say analysts at Glassnode. The January surge in activity surpasses the previous record of 21 million active addresses in December 2017, their number has not fallen below 10 million per month since then.

- Specialists of the analytical platform CryptoQuant noted in recent days the movement of large volumes of bitcoins. 15,200 BTC was withdrawn from the Coinbase exchange alone at a cost of about $500 million. Coins were withdrawn in batches from 1,100 BTC to 4,400 BTC, which is a rare occurrence. Usually, crypto exchanges do not split transfers in this way when moving coins between their own wallets, as this leads to an increase in overhead costs.
According to the founder of CryptoQuant, Ki Yong Joo, bitcoins went to custodian wallets, on which only incoming transactions were noticed. “These are probably over-the-counter deals of institutional investors. And I consider this to be the strongest bullish signal,” he wrote.

- Visa CEO Alfred Kelly spoke about plans for cryptocurrency payments during a teleconference on the company's financial activities. He noted that the company is ready to make such payments more secure. Visa plans to work with wallets and exchanges so that users can not only buy crypto assets, but also cash them in and make purchases in fiat currency without prior conversions.
Visa currently distinguishes between two classes of cryptoassets: assets like bitcoin - digital gold, and assets backed by fiat currencies, including stablecoins and central bank digital currencies. “It goes without saying that if a particular digital currency becomes a recognized means of exchange, there is no reason why we cannot add it to our network, which already supports over 160 currencies today,” concluded Kelly.

- According to a report from research firm Binance Research, bitcoin remains the leading cryptocurrency as 65% of users have it in their investment portfolio. This figure was obtained by a survey of 61,000 users from 178 countries. The document, called the 2021 Global Cryptocurrency User Index, says that 52% of users consider cryptocurrency to be a source of current income, while the rest own digital assets, considering them part of a long-term investment strategy.


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  #520  
Old 04-02-2021, 15:46
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January 2021 Results: NordFX's Most Successful Traders Helped by Bitcoin and Gold


NordFX brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in the first month of 2021.

The maximum profit in January was received by a client from Vietnam, account No.1416xxx, whose profit amounted to 83.598 USD. This solid result was achieved mainly in gold (XAU/USD) and bitcoin (BTC/USD) trades.

The second place in the rating of the most successful traders of the month is taken by a client from China, account No.1416xxx. Their profit was 40.902 USD, and was received on transactions with the same gold and bitcoin, as well as with a currency that is quite exotic for Chinese traders, the South African rand (USD/ZAR).

The third place on the January podium went to the representative of India (account No. 1518xxx) whose result of 40.217 USD was achieved mainly due to transactions with two cryptocurrency pairs, BTC/USD and ETH/USD. It should be noted that this trader occupied the third place in the previous, December TOP-3 as well, and their total profit for two months has amounted to almost 80 thousand USD.

As for traders focusing exclusively on Forex currency pairs, here the leader was a resident of Sri Lanka (account number 1528xxx), who earned 33.684 USD on transactions with the British pound - GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD and GBP/USD.

The passive investment services:
- in CopyTrading in January the largest increase of 382% was shown by the sab aq4x signal, however, its maximum drawdown was more than impressive, 74.15%. But KennyFXPRO demonstrates a small, but stable growth with a very moderate drawdown (growth in January 34.57% with a maximum drawdown of 12.30%). We can also note another non-aggressive signal - NordFX Pro (increase 24.08%, drawdown 11.31%);
- in the PAMM service, the manager Nacarino achieved the maximum profit for the month (increase 82.82%, drawdown 77.42%). The minimum drawdown of only 1% with a gain of 12.53% was shown by a trader with the nickname COPY CAT 01.

Among the IB partners, NordFX TOP-3 is as follows:
- the largest amount of commission, USD 9.461, was accrued in January to a partner from China, account No. 1336xxx;
- next is also a partner from China, account number 1175xxx, who received 6.124 USD;
- and, finally, a partner from Sri Lanka, account No. 1483xxx, who received 6.123 USD as a reward, closes the top three.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

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