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  #361  
Old 04-08-2019, 13:58
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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 05 - 09, 2019


First, a review of last week’s events:

- USD. Two events took place last week, more precisely on Thursday 01 and Friday 02 August, that could shake the markets. But they did not shake them.
On Thursday, for the first time since 2008, the US Federal Reserve lowered its key rate from 2.50% to 2.25%. The event was quite expected. Markets usually react to such a move, by dropping quotes. However, in this case, instead of falling, the dollar rose, although not by much (the increase against EUR was a little more than 100 points) and not for long (as of Friday, the euro won back 85 points).
The main reason for the growth of the American currency was the comment by Jerome Powell, in which the Fed chief said that this rate cut by 25 basis points would not necessarily mark the beginning of a consistent easing policy. Indirectly, his words were confirmed by the fact that the rate was reduced by only 0.25%, and not by 0.50%, and two FOMC members voted against any reduction.
Thus, the Federal Reserve was the least “soft” against the background of the central banks of other countries pursuing a policy of easing, which led to a short-term growth of the dollar.
The second planned event was the release of statistics on the US labor market. As predicted, NFP fell slightly (from 193K to 164K), to which the market reacted rather sluggishly, especially since the main newsmaker at the end of the week was - unexpected for many! - Donald Trump. (Well, who can do without him!)
For a start, the US president called Powell's behavior a betrayal, and then put an end to the fragile truce in the US-China trade war, announcing the introduction of a 10% duty on Chinese goods worth $300 billion on September 1. Such a move by Trump sharply increased the chances further easing of the Fed’s monetary policy, in spite of Powell's statements. Thus, the probability of the next rate reduction in September increased from 64% to 92%, in December - from 42% to 75%.
The threat of a new round of hostilities in the war with China brought down the American stock market, and investors once again turned their attention to a safe haven currency such as the Japanese yen, which strengthened against the dollar by 275 points at the end of the week;

- Cryptocurrencies. Without a doubt, Bitcoin was, is and will be the digital currency number 1, which reigns at the crypto market, making up the bulk of its capitalization and determining the trends and quotes of the vast majority of altcoins. And although sometimes there are voices offering to give, for example, Ethereum the status of a full-fledged coin, placing it next to Bitcoin, this is unlikely to happen in the foreseeable future.
As for the news background, which often defines a particular trend, it has recently become quite ambiguous. Thus, the largest social network Facebook has declared that the launch of the project of its own digital currency Libra may be canceled due to significant pressure from the regulator, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
On the one hand, it seems to be good for Bitcoin: there will be one strong competitor less. On the other hand, after crushing Libra, the authorities can firmly take on the crypto market as a whole. Calls on this matter do not stop for a minute. For example, The United States Revenue Service (IRS) has recently sent letters to more than 10 thousand investors demanding to include information about cryptocurrency assets in their tax return, otherwise violators will be fined.
In the meantime, the pair BTC/USD continues to move in the side channel, trying to overcome the resistance of $10,500. Major altcoins, including Litecoin (LTC/USD), Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Ripple (XRP/USD), are also moving in a sideways trend with low volatility. It can be assumed that the main reason for such calm is the middle of summer, when investors, legislators, and even tax inspectors go on vacation. Although it may be just a lull before the next storm.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The pair in its fall is now close to Pivot Point 2015-2016. And, although the rebound up on Friday, August 02, colored the indicators on H4 in a neutral gray color, 90% of the oscillators and trend indicators on D1 still insist on the continuation of the downward trend. 65% of experts agree that the American currency still has potential for growth, and it will continue to put pressure on the euro. The immediate goal for the pair is 1.0950, the next one is 100 points lower.
At the moment, only 35% of analysts turned out to side with the bulls, however, in anticipation of easing the monetary policy of the Fed, when moving to the medium-term forecast, their number rises to 55%.
If we turn to the indications of graphical analysis, it draws first the movement of the pair in the range of 1.1070-1.1165 on H4, and then its growth to the horizon of 1.1225. The next resistance is at 1.1285;

- GBP/USD. Since April 2018, the British currency weakened against the US dollar by 2,300 points. The last days did not become an exception: the pound lost 430 points since July 25. The reason is the same, Brexit. The coming to power of Boris Johnson and his promise to part with the EU on October 31 on a “tough” scenario make investors nervous and the pound fall.
75% of experts expect to see the pair in the 1.2000 zone soon. And if it manages to break through this support, it will be able to “fly” down another 100-150 points. This development is supported by 95% of the trend indicators and 90% of the oscillators on D1.
The remaining 10% of oscillators give signals about the pair being oversold. A respite is also expected by graphical analysis on D1 and by 25% of analysts, according to whom the pair can go to a side movement in the channel 1.2100-1.2250 for a while. In the case of any positive news regarding Brexit, growth of the pair to the level of 1.2375 is not excluded.
As for the medium-term forecast, according to 70% of analysts, the Bank of England will eventually be forced to acknowledge the serious risks of a “tough” exit from the EU and sharply tighten monetary policy. Thus, it will be the only large central bank to raise interest rates, which should lead to an increase in quotations of the British currency and their rise above the level of 1.2800. However, this can happen only when at least the basic conditions for the British exit from the EC become known;

- USD/JPY. The escalation of trade confrontation between the United States and China and the reduction in the interest rate on the US dollar increase the attractiveness of the yen as a safe haven currency. Therefore, 60% of analysts expect the pair to continue to decline in an effort to reach the January 2019 low around 105.00. 100% of the trend indicators and 85% of the oscillators on D1 also look to the south. However, 15% of oscillators are already giving signals about the pair being oversold. Resistance levels are 107.80, 109.00 and 110.00;

- Cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin holders try to find any arguments to push it up. Any reasons are suitable for this, even the Fed's interest rate cut: having lost interest in the dollar, investors will start investing in more profitable and risky assets, like Bitcoin. Although, if you think about it, what prevented them from doing so before? The rate cut by 0.25% is a very weak argument in this case.
Billionaire and head of the crypto-bank Galaxy Digital Mike Novograz said in an interview with Bloomberg that the price of Bitcoin will rise again to the historical maximum of $20 thousand per unit before the end of this year. At the same time, he does not exclude that in the course of bidding quotations may drop to $8,500 for 1 BTC. And popular presenter Joe Kernen has announced on CNBC television channel the rise of BTC to $55,000. In May 2020, bitcoin mining will be halved, which, in his opinion, should lead to a rapid increase in the value of the coin, thanks to its aggressive purchases before halving.
As for short-term forecasts, despite the fact that Bitcoin reached $10,650 on August 2, it will be possible to talk about the transition to sustainable growth only after the BTC/USD pair has confidently crossed the $11,000 mark. In the meantime, experts are divided into two equal camps. But all of them, both optimists and pessimists, call the horizon $10,000 as a Pivot Point.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  #362  
Old 10-08-2019, 13:53
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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 12-16, 2019


First, a review of last week’s events:

- USD/EUR. The pair is consolidating in the zone of a strong support/resistance level around 1.1200. In general, the zone 1.1150-1.1215 is quite significant for this pair, since it can be called the main Pivot Point of 2015-2016. And now, after three years, the pair has once again fallen into this range, which may indicate some confusion in the market.
Uncertainty factors are many.
Firstly, this is the beginning of another round in the US-China trade war. Introducing 10 percent duties on the next group of Chinese goods from September 1, the US president did not stop there, he called China “currency manipulator” and is planning to postpone the issuance of licenses for US companies to trade with Huawei.
In addition to the external war, Trump has to wage an internal war, with his own Fed. He wrote in his Twitter on Thursday August 08: “Our companies are the greatest in the world, there is nobody even close, but unfortunately the same cannot be said about our Federal Reserve. They have called it wrong at every step of the way...". It is about stimulating the American economy, which is one step away from the recession, for which Trump blames the strong dollar. “The Fed’s high interest rates,” he writes, “in comparison to other countries, is keeping the dollar high, making it more difficult for our great manufacturers...to compete on a level playing field.”
So, the market expects steps from the US leadership aimed at preventing an industrial downturn. But the ECB is expected to take the same steps, since the Eurozone economy, undermined by economic wars and political instability within the EU, is not in the best condition either, and the yield of German bonds have reached record lows. However, lowering the interest rate for the euro is a double-edged sword. By stimulating industrial growth, this step will create serious problems for the banking system in Europe. According to Bloomberg experts, lowering the rate on euro deposits to -0.5% will increase banks' expenses associated with servicing negative rates by 60%.
Investors are not happy with the ongoing drop in oil prices either. Saudi Arabia is making a lot of efforts to maintain the price of “black gold” at least at the current level, but the results of these steps remain doubtful;

- GBP/USD and USD/JPY. Most experts had expected a decline on both of these pairs. And if you look at the results of the week, the forecast turned out to be correct on the whole, although not one of them reached its goals. Thus, 75% of analysts expected to see GBP/USD around 1.2000, but the week low was fixed slightly higher, at the level of 1.2025. Thus, the loss of the British pound against the dollar amounted to about 135 points.

- As for USD/JPY, unlike the pound, the yen continued to strengthen against the US currency. Analysts (60%) had expected the pair to be able to reach the January 2019 low at around 105.00. However, the fall was stopped at the horizon of 105.40 (minus 120 points during the week) , after which there was a rebound upwards, and the pair completed the five-day period at 105.65;

- Cryptocurrencies. Former CEO of Google and Facebook, Avichal Garg, is sure that the real dominance of bitcoin in the cryptocurrency market is much higher than the figure published by cryptocurrency services, and actually exceeds 75%. According to Garg, it is necessary to revise the current measurement standards, since now they take into account the huge number of altcoins with zero liquidity. And it is not at all excluded that soon we will see the share of bitcoin exceed the mark of 80%, or even 90%. An argument in favor of this development is that BTC is gradually becoming a very popular safe haven asset. “Bitcoin has proven to be a hedge against global risks, because it shows a positive correlation with gold and a negative correlation with the stock markets,” said Tom Lee, co-founder and senior analyst at Fundstrat, in an interview with CNBC. And, looking at the charts of the last week, one cannot disagree with him. Usually, top altcoins repeated the dynamics of the main cryptocurrency. Now, despite the fact that the BTC/USD pair has shown steady growth, adding about $1,500 during the week and gaining a foothold in the $11,550-12,120 zone, the main altcoins, including Litecoin (LTC/USD), Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Ripple (XRP/USD), finished the week in the red zone. Although, of course, it is too early to bury them completely. According to some experts, several alternative cryptocurrencies (for example, Ethereum) can become stand-alone blockchains, ceasing to be considered altcoins. The rest will go into oblivion as unnecessary.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. If on H4 both trend indicators and oscillators are still pointing north, D1 has a completely different picture: about half of the indicators are colored red, and another 15% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is overbought. Graphical analysis on H4 and 60% of experts sided with the bears as well, they expect that, having pushed off the resistance of 1.1200, the pair will once again test support in the zone of 1.1025. In their opinion, the euro quotes at 1.1200 are now supported mainly due to the growth of interest in protective assets. However, the fragile balance, in addition to the situation with Brexit and a new aggravation of the political situation in Italy, can be disturbed even by weak data on GDP growth in the Eurozone, which will be released on Wednesday, August 14.
A reduction in the state budget deficit and positive data on inflation in the USA can also play a role in strengthening the dollar. What these numbers will actually be will be announced on Monday, August 12 and Tuesday, August 14, respectively.
The remaining 40% of analysts vote for the growth of the pair to the zone 1.1275-1.1345. Their forecast is based on the expectation of a recession and a further decline in interest rates in the United States. Thus, Wall Street Journal analysts estimate the chances of a recession over the next 12 months at 33.6% (a year ago it was18.3%), which is the highest rate since 2011. And predicting a change in the rate, experts believe that by the end of 2019 it will fall from 2.25% to 1.85%;

- GBP/USD. On Tuesday morning, August 13, the UK will present a portion of labor market data that is expected to be neutral at best and weak at worst. As for inflation, its indicators, which will be released on August 14, are likely to remain at the same level. In general, experts are not expecting any significant changes in the pound this week, and therefore their forecast can be classified as neutral.
As for the technical analysis, 100% of the trend indicators and most of the oscillators on H4 and D1 are colored red. Graphical analysis also Indicates to a continued fall of the pair. Moreover, it is already 25% of the oscillators that indicate overselling of the pair, which is a strong signal for a trend reversal and upcoming correction.
Support Levels: January 2017 lows - 1.1985 and October 2016 lows - 1.1945. Resistance Levels: 1.2210, 1.2415, 1.2525;

- USD/JPY. As already mentioned, the desire of investors to shelter their capital in quiet harbors continues to grow. And 35% of analysts are sure that the Japanese currency will continue to play the role of such a harbor, and therefore the fall of the pair will continue until the January 3, 2019 low at the level of 105.00. Next support is March 2018 low 104.60. Graphical analysis on Н4, as well as 85% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators on Н4 and D1 agree with this scenario.
30% of the experts were not able to give a forecast, and the remaining 35%, together with a graphical analysis on D1, voted for the trend to reverse upward and the pair to rise to the zone 107.00-108.00. Such a scenario is also supported by 15% of the oscillators, giving signals of the pair being oversold.
It should be noted that in the transition from a weekly to medium-term forecast, the number of bull supporters among experts increases sharply, from 35% to 65%, and the height of 109.00 is called the main goal;

- Cryptocurrencies. Tom Lee is confident that, having become, along with yen and gold, a safe haven asset, Bitcoin will be able to rise to $20,000. A similar point of view has been expressed by Anthony Pompliano, co-founder of Morgan Creek. According to him, central banks will begin to massively buy bitcoins in the near future in order to hedge dollar risks, which appeared against the backdrop of tensions between the United States and China. The “epidemic” of lowering interest rate regulators will positively affect the quotes of the first cryptocurrency. Another strength of Bitcoin is its projected emission and limited supply.
The reference cryptocurrency has grown by 93% in three months and now its immediate task is to update the highs of June 2019 in the $14,000 zone. More than 70% of experts agree with this forecast, although, in their opinion, this could happen by the end of August. In the next week, the pair will perhaps continue to move along the horizon of $12,000.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  #363  
Old 18-08-2019, 08:43
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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 19 - 23, 2019


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. As expected by most experts, supported by graphical analysis, the dollar went up last week, while the EUR/USD pair went down along with the euro. True, it did not reach the set target, the low of August 1, 1.1025, having found the local bottom at the level of 1.1065.
The reason for the fall of the European currency was in the first place, "doves" promises by the general director of the Bank of Finland and former candidate for the ECB Olli Rehn. According to the statement of this prominent European official, it is already in September that the market expects a reduction in the key rate by 0.1 (and possibly by 0.2) percentage points (now it is -0.4%), as well as the resumption of the QE quantitative easing program in volume about 50 billion euros monthly.
In addition, not the best economic statistics from Germany and China and the unexpected growth in US retail sales played in favor of the dollar. The market had been expecting this indicator to decline from 0.7% to 0.3%, but it rose to 1.0%.

- GBP/USD. Last week, analysts did not expect any significant changes in the British pound, so their forecast was classified as neutral. As for technical analysis, 25% of the oscillators on H4 and D1 gave signals about the overselling of the pair, which, as practice shows, is a strong signal for a trend reversal and upcoming correction. This was what happened: having rebounded from the level of 1.2015, the pair went north, fixing the week’s high at 1.2175 on Friday. The final five-day chord sounded in the 1.2140 zone, which can be called the Pivot Point of the first week of August;

- USD/JPY. A third of analysts, supported by 85% of the oscillators and 100% of the trend indicators on H4 and D1, were sure that the Japanese currency would continue to play the role of a quiet refuge from currency storms, and therefore the pair would continue to fall to the low of January 3, 2019. at the level of 105.00. That was what happened, and it was already on Monday, August 12, that the pair approached this mark.
Another third of the experts and graphical analysis on D1 had voted for the trend to turn up and lift the pair to the height of 107.00, which it reached the next day, on Tuesday, August 13.
The ending of the week satisfied the remaining third of specialists, who had taken a neutral position. If you look at the graph of the last two weeks, you can see that the pair moved to the side channel 105.00–107.00 and completed the working session closer to its center, at 106.35. Thus, all three scenarios can be considered fulfilled - bearish, bullish and neutral;

- Cryptocurrencies. Crypto enthusiasts, such as Fundstrat analyst Tom Lee or Morgan Creek co-founder Anthony Pompliano, continue to attempt to raise Bitcoin status, claiming it has already become a safe haven asset, along with gold or the Japanese yen. And here it is questionable, what kind of refuge it is, if only from August 08 to 15 this digital currency lost more than 20% of its value, collapsing from $12,000 to $9,500?
With such frenzied volatility, Bitcoin is not a safe haven, but an ideal tool for high-risk speculation. Well and a refuge as well, but not from fluctuations in traditional financial markets, but from ... its younger colleagues in the digital market, altcoins, the interest in which is constantly falling.
If you look at the dynamics of the altcoin market, starting from the peak on June 26, its capitalization fell from $124 to $79 billion, that is, more than 36%. Losses of bitcoin are twice lower :18% (drop from $229 to $187 billion). Accordingly, investors are gradually losing interest even in top coins such as Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP) and Litecoin (LTC), switching their attention to bitcoin (BTC), whose market share has already exceeded 70%.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. On one European scale, there is a slowdown in the economic growth of the EU’s most important partner - China, weak economic performance in Germany, problems of Italy and Brexit. On the other, the American one, macro statistics from the United States are pleasing to the eye and the Fed’s leadership claims that the American economy is on a solid foundation and that it doesn’t fear any trade wars. It would seem that the answer to the question on which side the advantage should be is clear: on the side of the dollar. That is exactly what 65% of experts believe, supported by almost 100% of oscillators and trend indicators on H4 and D1. The immediate goal is support in the zone 1.1000–1.1025, after breaking through which there will be only 1000 points to 1: 1 parity. At the current rate of decline, it may take a little over a year to overcome this distance. (Recall that the pair was already dropping to the level of 1.0350 in December 2016).
However, if you imagine other scales, everything becomes not so obvious. So, on one, European, scale there is the decrease in the euro interest rate announced by Olli Rehn for September and the resuscitation of the QE program. And on the US scale - the expectation of a recession in the US economy, Donald Trump's discontent with the actions of the Fed and, as a result, a possible reduction in the dollar rate by the end of 2019 from 2.25% to 1.85%. If the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell succumbs to pressure from the US president, a trend reversal upward and the pair's rise to marks in the zone 1.1300-1.1400 are not excluded. And if in the near future it is 35% of analysts who do not exclude such an opportunity, in the medium term their number increases to 55%.
According to experts, the results of the Fed meeting on Wednesday, August 21 and the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, which will also be held next week, should give some clarity about the US financial policy. In addition, the report on the ECB meeting on monetary policy, which will be released on Thursday, August 22, is of great interest;

- GBP/USD. A rather interesting situation has developed in the UK. On the one hand, production is declining, falling by 0.6% compared to last year. On the other hand, instead of the retail sales drop of 0.3% expected in July, their growth by 0.2% was noted. This may indicate that, watching the fall of the pound and fearing the consequences of Brexit, the country's residents prefer shopping rather than financial savings.
It is not clear how long this situation will last. We need to wait for the steps of the new Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the reaction of the British Parliament to them. Until this happens, the respite that the pair has taken in its fall will, according to the majority (65%) of experts, continue, and the pair will stay in the side channel 1.2000–1.2200. The closest support level is 1.2050, resistance is 1.2175.
As for the graphic analysis, both on H4 and D1, after several days of movement in the side corridor, it predicts the pair will fall to the October 2016 low in the zone 1.1900–1.1940;

- USD/JPY. The decision of the US authorities to postpone the introduction of additional duties on Chinese imports did not help the dollar much: investors still strongly doubt the peaceful end of the US-Chinese trade war. So, the yen will continue to play the role of a quiet financial haven. The expectation of a coming recession in the US economy and lower interest rates by the US Federal Reserve also plays against the dollar. Added to this is a drop in yields on 10-year US bonds, which have already fallen to 1.6%. Moreover, the yield spread of these securities has fallen below zero. Which, in theory, should lead to further strengthening of the Japanese currency and a decrease in the pair. However, experts supported by graphical analysis on H4 are inclined to believe that the pair will stay in the side channel 105.00–107.00 for at least another week. But in the future, most of them (60%) expect not a fall, but, on the contrary, that the dollar will strengthen, and the pair will rise to the zone of 108.50-109.00. Graphical analysis on D1 agrees with this forecast;

- Cryptocurrencies. Giving long-term forecasts is a blessing. And the more distant the forecast, the better. If it does not come true, it's okay: everyone forgot about it a long time ago. And if the forecast is correct, then you can remind about yourself.
For example, Tim Draper, the investor and head of Draper Associates, has predicted that Bitcoin would hit $250,000, possibly at the end of 2022, or maybe at the beginning of 2023. Well, only three years are left to wait.
If we talk about more near forecasts, famous cryptocurrency analyst Nicholas Merten is confident that Bitcoin will reach the $15,000 mark in a few weeks. It is possible that he is right, and a trend reversal is just around the corner, but so far there are no clear signs to buy, and the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index is still at the “Fear” mark.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

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  #364  
Old 19-08-2019, 08:50
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  #365  
Old 24-08-2019, 14:22
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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 26 - 30, 2019


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The Jackson Hole Annual Economic Symposium has traditionally served to give investors an understanding of where US monetary policy will move. That is why the markets were looking forward to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaking at this event.
On the other hand, back in the days when Alan Greenspan was Head of the Federal Reserve, another tradition appeared: let in as much fog as possible when answering questions, so as not to bind oneself with any specific promises.
This was what Powell did in Jackson Hole on Friday August 23. He did not give a clear signal for the Fed rate in the future, explaining that there were no precedents that could serve as the basis for a specific answer. But he said that the Fed was ready to provide more incentives in the event of a slowdown in economic growth.
Powell could not do without a hint that the trade wars waged by the US president are causing a lot of headache to the American Central Bank either.
Speaking of wars. Inside the EU, a counterattack plan for trade tariffs introduced by Trump has matured. A retaliatory strike scheme is described in detail in 173 pages, as the main goals for which the American hi-tech giants Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google are chosen. A counterattack may also include the unilateral imposition of duties on goods from the United States. In parallel, it is proposed to invest about €100 billion into shares of European companies in order to increase their competitiveness compared to enterprises in the USA and China.
Returning to Powell, despite the vagueness of his wording, as well as the discord among other members of the Fed, many market participants still expect one or two (or even three) base rate cuts before the end of 2019. Moreover, the next cut may be announced on September 18.
Naturally, this market sentiment could not but affect the quotes, and on Friday evening the pair came close to the height of 1.1150;

- GBP/USD. In addition to the head of the Fed, the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney also spoke on Friday, August 23. However, an incomparably greater impression on the market was made by the words of German Chancellor Angela Merkel that were said the day before that the EU and Great Britain could reach an agreement on Brexit by October 31. Of course, this is just an intention, but it helped the pound a lot: thanks to these words, the British currency reached a three-week high, rising on Thursday August 22 to 1.2272. Then a pullback followed, but after the speech of the Fed head, the bulls prevailed once again, raising quotes to the level of 1.2285 by the end of the week;

- USD/JPY. There is no doubt that investors continue to be very worried about developments in the markets. It is quite natural against such a background, that the Japanese Yen turned out to be the best currency of the G10, not only in August, but throughout the last months of 2019, playing the role of a quiet haven among the trade and financial wars thundering around. At the same time, experts supported by graphical analysis on H4 had suggested that last week the pair would take a break and move in the side channel 105.00–107.00. That was it until Friday night. Moreover, the corridor was even narrower than expected: only 50 points bounded by horizons 106.20 and 106.70.
Powell’s performance on the evening of Friday, August 23, pushed the pair sharply down, however, it did not manage to reach the level of 105.00, completing the five-day period at 105.40;

- Cryptocurrencies. We wrote in our previous forecast that the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index is at the “Fear” mark. And it is this fear that leads to a continuous decrease in volatility (remember, again, the triangular pennant on the chart of the previous week, whose edges converge in the $10,400-10,500 zone).
This forecast turned out to be absolutely correct, and during the whole seven-day period the BTC/USD pair did not go beyond the borders of $9,785-10,980, which indicates consolidation at the level of $10,385. TOP altcoins also fluctuated in the range of 11-13%: Litecoin (LTC/USD), Ripple (XRP/USD) and Ethereum (ETH/USD).
There is only one conclusion: the market is in a state of uncertainty, and players, both the bulls and the bears, fearing to take risks, froze in anticipation of any distinct signal.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The meeting of G7 leaders on August 24-24 is among the events of the end of summer. It cannot be ignored. However, it is unlikely that the results of these negotiations of the heads of the G7 countries will set any definite trends in the foreign exchange market. Most likely, the leaders will simply urge the heads of their central banks to respond more actively to external and internal economic threats. Investors are much more worried about the euro interest rate cut announced for September and the European Central Bank’s reanimation of the QE program, as well as when and in what amount the Fed will lower the interest rate.
After Jerome Powell's performance on the evening of August 23 and the sharp rise of the pair, it is natural that both the graphical analysis and most of the indicators on H4 look up. However, the picture is completely different on D1: 70% of the trend indicators turned red, and among the oscillators, either red or neutral gray prevail. At the same time, 10% of them are already signaling the pair is overbought.
Strengthening of the dollar and the pair's return to the August lows of 1.1025-1.1050 are also expected by 65% of analysts. An alternative point of view is represented by the remaining 35% of experts, according to whom the pair may well reach zone 1.1200-1.1250. The next goal is 100 points higher;

- GBP/USD. No less active than Brexit, the world discusses the fact that during the meeting with French Prime Minister Emmanuel Macron, the new British Prime Minister Boris Johnson put his feet on the coffee table. Macron has been and remains one of the most consistent supporters of the EU’s tough stance on relations with Britain. And maybe his British colleague wanted to show in this way that France’s position, to put it mildly, doesn’t really bother him?
Of course, Merkel, Macron, and Johnson continue contacts during the G7 meeting, but even after them the probability of Britain leaving the EU without an agreement remains as high as before. That is why 70% of experts, in full agreement with graphical analysis on H4 and D1, expect a continuation of the downtrend and a decrease of the pair to the August 12 low - 1.2015. The closest resistance zone is 1.2280-1.2320, support is in the areas of 1.2180-1.2200 and 1.2075-1.2100.
30% of analysts continue to remain on the side of the bulls, believing that the good news regarding the Brexit agreement has not yet ended, and the pair will still be able to rise to the zone 1.2415-1.2520. More than 70% of indicators support this scenario. However, 15% of the oscillators on D1 are already signalizing the pair is overbought;

- USD/JPY. Experts (70%) expect the strengthening of the dollar against the yen as well. Despite the fact that the Japanese currency remains, along with the Swiss franc, the most popular safe haven currency, many major investors begin to fix short positions, converting their capitals to the gold.
The words of Bank of Japan representative Sayuri Shirai who said on Thursday August 22 that in order to counter the impending recession, the Bank allows a further reduction in the interest rate, which is already negative and amounts to minus 0.1%, played against the yen as well.
The immediate goal of the bulls is to return to the zone 106.20-106.70, then breakdown and consolidation above the level of 107.00. As for the bears (30%), they, with the support of 90% of the indicators on D1, will try to break the bottom in the zone of 105.00 and move the pair to the March 2018 low 104.60;

- Cryptocurrencies. In general, the news background is quite favorable: Bank of America plans to patent a system for the safe storage of digital assets. Another US bank, Silvergate, has announced plans to launch a new product - loans issued against cryptocurrencies. - A study by Nobl Insurance showed that the cryptocurrency market has grown by 48% from 2018 to 2019 and will continue to expand over the next 12 months.
There is one more interesting piece of news. According to a statement from US economist Jim Rickards, Russia and China are working together to create their own cryptocurrency, which will be tied to gold. And that is precisely why, in his opinion, they have been so actively buying up this precious metal in recent years.
One can argue with Rickards. First, why should Russia and China issue a joint cryptocurrency? Each of these countries may well release their own cryptocurrency. And secondly, they replenish their gold reserves, most likely, not for the sake of issuing any digital coins, but in order to reduce their dependence on the US dollar.
As for the forecast, crypto enthusiasts, as usual, make every effort to push bitcoin up. This time, famous trader Alex Kruger made a prophetic prediction. According to him, the cost of bitcoin will soon begin to increase and reach 50 thousand dollars by the end of 2021. But at the same time, Kruger added that this will happen ... only if the coin now holds the positions above 10 thousand dollars. Well, what can one say to this?
The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has recently dropped to the Extreme Fear mark. 70% of analysts are looking south, but nevertheless they accurately mark the threshold of the fall with a zone of $9,000-9,500. It is possible that, pushing off from this support, Bitcoin will begin a new take-off to the $12,000 and $20,000 marks. But now it’s too early to talk about it and we need to wait for clear signals.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  #366  
Old 02-09-2019, 08:48
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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 02 - 06, 2019


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. As we expected, the negotiations of the G7 countries on August 24-26 did not affect the foreign exchange market in any way. But it was influenced by many other factors that, contrary to the wishes of Donald Trump, further strengthened the American dollar. We will mention only a few of them. First, it is the conciliatory rhetoric of the USA and China, which gave hope for a trade agreement. Further, there was an increase in personal consumption expenditures in the United States (4.7% instead of the forecast 4.3%) along with an increase in the yield of US treasury bonds and stock indices. If we add to this the slowdown in inflation in Germany and the statement of the future Head of the ECB Christine Lagarde on possible measures to support the Eurozone economy (QE), we get the strengthening of the dollar against the euro by almost 200 points.
Most experts expected the euro to weaken and the pair to decline, indicating August lows at 1.1025 as a target. However, the collapse of data on retail sales in Germany (a fall of 2.1% instead of the expected 1.3%) pushed the pair even lower, to around 1.0960, followed by a slight rebound, and the pair ended the week at 1.0990;

- GBP/USD. Supported by graphical analysis, 70% of analysts sided with the bears last week, expecting further weakening of the British currency. Which is what was happening as the bad news regarding Brexit was coming out. The Parliament prorogation by the new Prime Minister Boris Johnson not only caused a wave of discontent among the country's residents, but even affected the GfK Consumer Confidence Index, which fell in anticipation of a hard UK exit from the EU. According to Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney, “Great Britain has no credible proposals for Brexit.” As a result, the GBP/USD pair lost about 130 points over the week, dropping to the level of 1.2165;

- USD/JPY. Speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday evening, August 23, pushed the pair down sharply, and, as a result of a gap in its fall, it reached 104.45 on Monday August 26. However, after that, as the vast majority of analysts expected (70%), against the backdrop of Trump's statements about productive “telephone conversations” with China, the dollar began to regain its position, reaching a strong resistance zone 106.60-106.70 on Thursday. As for the end of the five-day period, the pair completed it at the level of 106.25;

- Cryptocurrencies. You cannot name the situation in this market happy, which, in fact, is fully consistent with our forecasts. Recall that two weeks ago, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index dropped to Extreme Fear, and 70% of analysts gave a negative forecast for the BTC/USD pair, expecting it to fall to the $9,000-9,500 zone. This is exactly what happened: on Thursday, August 29, Bitcoin groped for a local bottom at $9.355.
If you keep in mind the news background, there is no visible reason for such a fall. And we can assume that in the absence of demand, sellers began to sharply reduce prices, hoping to attract new buyers.
Indeed, the situation with bitcoin is not joyful, but it is still difficult to call it dramatic, relying on support in the $9,100 zone, the pair have not updated the July lows. The situation with altcoins, whose popularity is inexorably declining, looks much more tragic. Litecoin (LTC/USD) returned to the level of March 2019, having dried out by 56% over the past 10 weeks. Losses of Ripple (XRP/USD) over the same period amounted to 50%, and it is trading now at the prices of two years ago. And the leading altcoin, Ethereum (ETH/USD) lost 54%. As for the capitalization of the cryptocurrency market as a whole, it decreased by about 32% over the indicated 10 weeks, from $367 billion to $250 billion.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Despite the peaceful statements by the US president and the Chinese leadership last week, Trump’s decision to raise tariffs from September 1 has not been canceled. There was only his promise to postpone this increase until December 15. So, the end of the trade war between these countries is not at all a fact. It is also doubtful whose mitigation policy, the ECB's or the Fed's, will be softer. Investors are hoping to get a part of the answer to this question from the speeches of Christine Lagarde on Tuesday September 3 and Jerome Powell on Friday September 6.
You should also pay attention to the value of the PMI Caixin index in China's manufacturing sector, which reflects the degree of business confidence in the economy of this country and which will be published on Monday 02 September. Data on business activity (ISM) in the US will be released on Tuesday and Wednesday, and on Friday, data on the American labor market will traditionally be released. According to forecasts, the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector (NFP) may slightly decrease, from 164K to 159K, which is unlikely to have a strong impact on the dollar.
Based on the forecast data, most analysts (55%) expect EUR/USD to move sideways along the 1.1000 level at 1.0960-1.1050 next week. 25%, supported by 90% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators, expect that the pair will be able to break through support 1.0960 on its way to parity and fall to the zone 1.0875-1.0925. The remaining 20% believe that the pair is for a correction and a rise to the level of 1.1250. This scenario is supported by 10% of oscillators on D1, giving signals about it being oversold. It should be noted that in the transition to the medium-term forecast, the number of supporters of the strengthening of the euro increases to 60%. At the same time, analysts are waiting for the pair to return to the levels of 1.1400-1.1500;

- GBP/USD. At present, the three-month pound volatility against the US dollar is about 14%. It was so high for the last time at the moment when Theresa May tried to ratify the agreement with the EU in the British Parliament. Now its source is May's successor Boris Johnson and the expectation of a hard Brexit.
In the current situation, as before, most experts (60%) do not expect anything good for the pound. In full agreement with the graphical analysis on H4 are the readings of 90% of the indicators on H4 and D1, they suggest that the pair will test again the August 12, 2019 low. - 1.2015. Graphical analysis on D1 indicates a possible fall of the pair even further - to the low of October 2016, 1.1945. The nearest support is 1.1260;
The remaining 40% of analysts, along with 10% of the oscillators, believe that the pair is already oversold and expect it to return to the range 1.2420-1.2550. Their forecast is reinforced by the hope of a positive course of negotiations with the EU on Brexit;

- USD/JPY. Japan's weak economic statistics, as well as some lull in the trade war between China and the United States, have led to a dropping interest in the yen. That is why 70% of experts expect further growth of the pair to the level of 107.00-107.70. The next target, according to the graphical analysis on D1, is 108.75.
As for the opposite point of view, the argument of the bears is that the spread on the yield of 10-year bonds in Japan and the United States has decreased by about 135 points since November 2018, and the yen has strengthened against the dollar by 7% (from 114.5 to 106.00). And this strong trend may well continue. The immediate task is to overcome the support of 104.80. After which, in the medium term, the Japanese currency may even reach a significant level of 100.00;

- Cryptocurrencies. An unexpected statement was made by the Head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, speaking at an economic conference in Jackson Hole (USA). He spoke extremely negatively both about the hegemony of the American currency and the prospect of the emergence of another reserve, such as the Chinese yuan. The UK chief banker said the dollar should be replaced with some form of cryptocurrency similar to Facebook’s recently introduced Libra. It is not known whether his wishes will ever come true, but so far, of the dollar, yuan, Libra, and his "native" pound that he has mentioned, the dollar he does not like is feeling the best.
As mentioned above, the BTC/USD pair came close to the July lows in the region of $9,100 last week. Last time, Bitcoin received support and fought off first at the level of $11,080, and then at $12,320. Whether something similar happens this time depends largely on major institutional investors. Bitcoin can also be supported by the launch of Bakkt, the crypto ecosystem created by Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). In the case of a confident breakdown of support $9,000-9,100, the pair is likely to fall to the zone of $7,450-8,200.
But the prospects for altcoins look gloomy in both cases. If Bitcoin is to fall, investor interest in the cryptocurrency market as a whole will also fall. And if Bitcoin begins to grow, then we can expect an active exchange of altcoins for the reference cryptocurrency.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  #367  
Old 07-09-2019, 16:07
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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 09 - 13, 2019


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The range 1.1025-1.106 can be called the Pivot Point zone of the last month and a half. It was there that the pair returned to by the end of the week trading session, which indicates the uncertainty prevailing in the market.
It is known that the situation now is most affected by the Trump trade wars and the US Federal Reserve policy. The information that Washington and Beijing could resume negotiations in early October had a positive impact on the stock market: the S&P500 index went up and approached the mark of 3000 again, while the growth rate of 10-year US Treasury bonds yields turned out to be the highest over the past three years. At the same time, the dollar began to strengthen, reaching its maximum since May 2017 against the euro. As a result, on Tuesday 03 September, the EUR/USD pair once again updated the low, reaching the level of 1.0925.
However, upon further reflection it turned out that in general there are no special reasons for optimism. You should not count on serious concessions from China, the problems of the American economy have not gone away and, in the event of continued trade wars, the likelihood of a deep recession will only increase. And this inevitably should entail a fall in rates and a serious easing of the Fed's monetary policy.
Investors expected to get some guidance at the end of the week based on the labor market data. However, the performance of such an important indicator as Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) showed... nothing because its decline was very, very small (from 159K to 130K). As a result, the dollar lost only some 40 points against the European currency. After that, the market tried to find the answers in the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in the evening on Friday, September 6. But to no avail either. As a result, the point was set at 1.10 25;

- GBP/USD. The British currency rate was first determined by optimism No. 1 - regarding the continuation of the US-Chinese negotiations, and then by optimism No. 2 - regarding negotiations with the EU on Brexit. Recall that most experts have expected that the pair would test again the 12 August 2019 low, 1.2015. Graphical analysis on D1 indicates a possible fall of the pair even further, to the low of October 2016, 1.1945. And this forecast was implemented at the beginning of the week: thanks to optimism No. 1, the pair fell to 1.1958. And then it turned around and, thanks to optimism No. 2, the pound was able to win back almost 400 points from the dollar by the middle of Thursday. As for the final chord, it sounded at the height of 1.2290;

- USD/JPY. Unlike the British pound, with its growing volatility, the yen is behaving quite calmly, moving in the lateral corridor 105.50-107.00 from the beginning of August. And the rare emissions outside this range are caused mainly by the news about the US-Chinese trade war developments, which Trump publishes on his Twitter.
As experts expected, interest in the yen, as a safe haven currency, has recently subsided, and as a result, the dollar managed to rise on Thursday to 107.23. After which a small rebound followed, and the pair finished the five-day period at the level of 106.9 2;

- Cryptocurrencies. According to the online publication Block Journal, bitcoin has surpassed even the most successful investments in IT companies that have gone through public IPO in terms of profitability. In March 2010, the first cryptocurrency used to cost about $0.003. Thus, at the current exchange rate above $10,000, its growth amounted to about 350,000,000%. (For comparison, the same indicator of the online advertising giant The Trade Desk is “only” 1.317%).
Over the past seven days, the BTC/USD pair grew as well. A forecast chart published a week ago shows that 70% of analysts expected the pair to rise to the $11,000 zone, which happened in reality: by mid-Friday September 6, Bitcoin gained $1,250 and reached the level of $10,925.
Along with the forecast for the BTC/USD pair, we published another forecast, for altcoins. According to experts, their prospects, regardless of where Bitcoin goes, look rather gloomy. If Bitcoin is to fall, investor interest in the cryptocurrency market as a whole will also fall. And if Bitcoin begins to grow, then we can expect an active exchange of altcoins for the reference cryptocurrency. And last week, alas, showed the validity of such a scenario. With the growth of the BTC/USD pair by 13%, Ethereum (ETH/USD) grew by only 4%, Litecoin (LTC/USD) - by 3%, and the growth of Ripple (XRP/USD) was 0.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Despite the fact that both the oscillators and the trend indicators on D1 are colored red, the analysts' forecast is neutral gray. The reason for this is the expectation of an event that can greatly affect investor sentiment. On Thursday, September 12, the ECB is due to announce its decision on the base interest rate. Currently, it is at a zero level, and one part of experts expects a decrease of 0.25 percentage points to -0.75%, the other does not exclude the possibility of an even more drastic decrease, to -0.4%, and the third believes that instead of specific measures to stimulate the economy of the Eurozone, the ECB may get off with general vague phrases this time as well.
In connection with the above, on September 12, we can expect increased volatility of the pair, the development of a bearish trend and a decrease in the euro quotes by 100 or more points. The nearest support is 1.0925, the next one is 1.0830. Resistance is in zones 1.1125 and 1.1250.
Among other events of the week, though not so significant, one can note the release of statistics on the US consumer market, which will be released on Thursday September 12 and Friday the 13th;

- GBP/USD. On Tuesday, September 10, we are expecting the publication of data on the UK labor market. But much more important than any economic statistics is Brexit related news. The first portion will arrive from the Parliament of this country on Monday. On the whole, the tension regarding the deal with the EU has significantly decreased, hopes for a second referendum are in the air, and 80% of experts expect the pound to strengthen and the pair to rise to the zone of 1.2400-1.2525.
An alternative point of view is represented by only 20% of analysts, graphical analysis and 15% of the oscillators on D1, which give signals the pair is overbought. The main goal in the case of this scenario is to re-test the August-September lows in the 1.1960-1.2060 area;

- USD/JPY. One can't say that nothing is happening in Japan. The Bank of Japan, trying to stop the decline in yield, is reducing the purchase of government bonds by 20 billion yen. On Monday, September 9, there will be statistics on the growth rate of Japanese GDP, which accelerated to 2.1% in the second quarter of 2019. But it seems that the yen quotes depend solely on the United States. Well, on China as well. And hopes for a trade agreement between these countries are pushing the Japanese currency down, and the pair up. As many as 90% of analysts (which is extremely rare), supported by 90% of oscillators and graphical analysis on D1, have sided with the bulls and voted for the pair to rise to the level of 107.25 and higher, to the resistances 107.80 and 108.50.
The fall of the pair to the level of 105.50 is expected, respectively, by 10% of experts and 10% of the oscillators, signaling the pair is overbought. Further support is located in zones 105.00 and 104. 45;

- Cryptocurrencies. Despite the stable growth throughout the past week, late on Friday, September 6, the main cryptocurrency unexpectedly went down, having fallen by almost $600 in literally 20 minutes. This confirms once again the thesis that with such super-volatility it is too early to talk about using bitcoin as a reliable asset for hedging risks in traditional financial markets - commodity, currency, and stock.
At the same time, Bitcoin adherents do not stop trying to warm up the crypto market with their appetizing forecasts. Thus, TV presenter and expert Max Kaiser said the other day that a stock market crisis, which is gaining momentum again, could lead the main cryptocurrency to a value of $25,000. However, there is a diametrically opposite point of view. For example, the analyst and trader John Bollinger, who created the well-known technical indicator Bollinger Bands, built into the MetaTrader terminals, has announced a possible complete reversal of the Bitcoin exchange rate. According to the expert, "the crypto winter, which was completed only in the second quarter this year, may return at a most unexpected moment."


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  #368  
Old 11-09-2019, 07:54
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  #369  
Old 16-09-2019, 07:43
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Financial Apocalypse 2019-2020


Waiting for a Financial End of the World

The world has frozen in anticipation of the global financial crisis. Some analysts predict its onset in the coming months, others give a delay until the end of 2020 - the beginning of 2021. But both draw quite apocalyptic pictures. The collapse in oil, copper and iron ore prices, falling stocks and currencies, layoffs and bankruptcies.

One of the most famous economists, Nouriel Roubini, believes that the crisis will begin very soon, at the end of 2019-2020. Recall that his previous forecast was completely accurate. And now, in an article in Project Syndicate, Roubini cites a number of signs of impending disaster. Among them, along with the trade wars that the US is waging with China, the EU and other countries, Roubini calls the increase in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve and the recession caused by the cessation of fiscal stimulus.

For these reasons, the growth rate of the American economy may slow down to 1%, as a result of which the country will face the problem of job shortages and unemployment. One should not forget that the foreign exchange reserves of most countries are denominated in US dollars, so the crisis in the US economy is very likely to cause a collapse around the world.

But Is the Situation So Terrible Indeed?

First, it is reassuring that crises are temporary and cyclical. If we turn to the theory of medium-term economic cycles, we will see that since the beginning of the Great Depression of 1929 they occur approximately once every 7-12 years.

The first crisis in the 21st century was the bursting bubble of dotcoms (primarily American Internet companies) in 2000. Since 1994, the NASDAQ index had grown by more than 500%, and on March 10, 2000, in just one day, it fell more than one and a half times. Then the fall continued until 2003.

The next crisis, 2008, was caused by a bursting bubble of mortgage lending in the United States. And now we are gradually approaching a new boiling point, which is based on the overheating of the American economy, intensified by the global instability. Last summer, the S&P500 index, whose basket includes 500 US companies with the largest capitalization, reached its maximum, approaching the mark of 3.000. And in January 2010 it was exactly 3 times smaller: 1.000. That is, for almost 10 years we have seen continuous growth in the US economy. ACCA chief economist Michael Taylor estimates this is the longest growth period in 150 years. And if we focus on the theory of the cyclical nature of crises, it would be time for the next of them to begin.

And What about Washington?

“Naturally, both Fed leaders and President Donald Trump are aware of this,” says John Gordon, lead analyst at NordFX brokerage. - And here we must remember that the next year, 2020, is the year of the next presidential election in the United States. If Mr. Trump wants to lead the country for the second time (and, apparently, he wants to), he just cannot allow the collapse of the American economy, falling incomes and rising unemployment. Voters will never forgive him for this. Therefore, we can observe lately how Mr. Trump puts pressure on the leadership of the Federal Reserve System, insisting on softening financial policy. And it seems that the Federal Reserve may follow the president’s lead.

So, after the Fed raised its base interest rate from 2.25% to 2.5% in December last year, three more, if not four, increases were expected until mid-2020. However, the opposite happened: from July 31, 2019. the rate has again become 2.25%. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, speaking at the end of August at the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole (USA), said that the Federal Reserve is ready to provide more incentives in case of a slowdown in economic growth.

Many other central banks, including the main regulator of Europe, the ECB, are also focused on easing policies. The leadership of China declares support for its economy as well. So there is hope that by joint efforts it will be possible, if not to prevent the crisis, then at least to push it back to 2021.

Yen, Bitcoin, Gold: An Equilateral Triangle

By accumulating resources, the largest US corporations are already redefining the priority of paying dividends to their shareholders, which makes us think again: what if the crisis breaks out in the coming months? What should one do? What assets to invest in, so as not to be left with nothing?

Currencies like the yen could be considered as a refuge. But they nevertheless strongly depend on the oil market and on the yield of US government bonds. For some time, the Japanese yen will be able to stay afloat. But, if the crisis is serious and long enough, its fate may also be unenviable.

What other options are there? Crypto enthusiasts, like Fundstrat analyst Tom Lee or Morgan Creek co-founder Anthony Pompliano, offer to invest in bitcoin, convincing investors that this virtual coin has already become a safe asset that can hedge currency risks. However, for many experts, this way of saving money raises fair doubts. “Answer the question on your own,” John Gordon of NordFX offers, “how reliable is Bitcoin if only from 08 to 15 August this digital currency lost more than 20% of its value, collapsing from $12,000 to $9,500? And this happened without any crises! "

With such frenzied volatility, Bitcoin is not a safe haven, but an ideal tool for high-risk speculation. Well and a refuge as well, but not from fluctuations in traditional financial markets, but from ... its younger colleagues in the digital market, altcoins, the interest in which is constantly falling. Of course, it is possible that at the time of the crisis, the price of the main cryptocurrency will rapidly go up. But it can fly down no less swiftly. Probabilities are 50 to 50. We are looking for a really reliable asset. And this, according to many experts, of course, is gold.


Over the past 20 years, this noble metal has risen in price from $275 per ounce in September 2000 to $1,550 in September 2019, bringing investors a profit of 460%.

According to analyst and producer of The Gold Forecast daily newsletter Harry Wagner, the last major bullish wave began at the end of 2015, after a correction of up to $1040, and suggests that gold can re-test the record highs of 2011, reaching in 2020 prices of $2070-2085 dollars per ounce.

Over the past year alone, since September 2018, the yellow metal has risen in price by 30%. According to the World Gold Council (WGC), gold demand in the first six months of 2019 reached a three-year high (2181 tons), mainly due to record purchases of the precious metal by Central banks, which are transferring their dollar reserves to more reliable assets, in their opinion.

“Of course, the numbers above look very attractive,” says the NordFX analyst. - And the actions of the Central Banks can be considered as an example. However, it must be borne in mind that if, in anticipation of a recession, the demand and, consequently, the price of this metal are rising, as the economy stabilizes, they may fall. Moreover, the fall may be quite serious. And the investor must have patience for the moment when the price moves up again to come: the process can take 5, 10 or more years. In this case, when we talk about hedging financial risks during global crises, gold can indeed be chosen as a preferred asset. As for the short- and medium-term speculations with it, this is a completely different issue, requiring a completely different approach, which must be discussed separately. However, in this case, gold can become a source of serious profit as well.”


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  #370  
Old 22-09-2019, 08:29
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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 23 - 27, 2019


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. Analysts have been talking about this for so long and it has happened: on Wednesday September 18, the US Federal Reserve lowered its key interest rate by 0.25% to 2.0%. But since they have been talking about this for a very long time, the market worked out this scenario a long time ago, and no "epoch-making" jumps in the rate have occurred. On the contrary, the volatility declined, and the pair switched to a sideways movement in the corridor 1.1000-1.1075, which is already well-known to traders.
We have already talked in our previous forecasts about this Pivot Point zone of the last two months, which was formed as a result of uncertainty prevailing in the market. Last week was a confirmation of this. So, on the one hand, the Fed’s press conference on Wednesday went without extenuating rhetoric, reinforcing the view that there will be no further rate cuts this year. But the very next day, the Banks of Switzerland and England abandoned the policy of easing at their meetings as well, maintaining their rates at the same level, and the Bank of Norway did raise the key rate. This only exacerbated the uncertainty by forcing the EUR/USD pair to move strictly east;

- GBP/USD. The pound continues winning back losses from the expectation of an unregulated Brexit, adding 5% against the September 3 low of 1.1958. This week, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker announced his readiness to abandon the idea of the backstop on the Irish border if British Prime Minister Boris Johnson comes up with something new and viable. This pushed the pound further up, as a result of which the pair reached the corridor 1.2440-1.2580, in which it was already moving in July, and completed the five-day period at the level of 1.2470;

- USD/JPY.The pair updated its medium-term high in the middle of the last week, reaching the height of 108.47. This happened against the backdrop of the decision of the Bank of Japan to maintain the target yield of 10-year government bonds in the zero zone. A statement by the head of BOJ Haruhiko Kuroda, who stated that the issue of further rate cuts is still relevant, also helped weaken the yen.
However, as usual, Trump's words made a greater impression on investors. And the US president said this time that Washington had reached an “initial” trade agreement with Tokyo, according to which the United States promised not to raise tariffs and introduce quotas for Japanese cars, and Tokyo would reset the duties on American wine within seven years.
Cars against wine - such a deal is clearly in favor of Japan. In addition, due to the escalation of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the demand for protective assets has grown, among which, of course, is the yen. As a result, the pair went about 100 points in the opposite direction, ending the week session at 107.55;

- Cryptocurrencies. Last week pleased some and forced some to have cold sweat due to an unexpected sharp drop in bitcoin (BTC/USD) by 6%, and then due to its unexpected growth, for no apparent reason. This drop caused the widespread closure of long positions: on one BitMEX crypto exchange alone the closed positions were worth $150 million.
The most likely explanation for what happened is the game of major capital against small traders, disappointed by the lack of a quick rise in bitcoin. At the same time, large players, not wanting to cause a panic collapse, do not let the pair fall below acceptable levels, keeping it in a comfortable range with a Pivot Point of $10,000.
Interestingly, the main altcoins seem to have begun to live an independent life, only partially copying the movements of the reference cryptocurrency. So, Ethereum (ETH/USD) has risen in price by 35% over the past three weeks, Litecoin (LTC/USD) - by 30%, and Ripple managed to jump up by 27% in just 4 days (from September 14 to 18). And this despite the fact that the maximum fluctuations in bitcoin this month did not exceed 9%.
The most logical, in our opinion, explanation is the subtlety of the market for altcoins. Unlike bitcoin, it is much easier to manipulate the exchange rate here, even with significantly lower amounts, which cannot but attract speculators eager for quick enrichment.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Unable to overcome the strong resistance level of 98.23, the USDX index is moving in a side channel. The pair EUR/USD is also moving east. Most likely, bearish factors such as quantitative easing (QE) in Europe and unregulated Brexit have already been played by the market. Objectively, the US economy is stronger than the European one. But the dollar-driven trade wars launched by President Trump are constantly hampering the dollar. And now there is also expectation of a full-fledged hot war in the Middle East over the drones’ attack on the oil facilities of Saudi Arabia, which Iran is accused of organizing. It is clear that the United States will surely intervene in this conflict.
All this leads to the closure of short positions on EUR/USD, and it is possible that the pair will not be able to update the September low at 1.0925. Half of the experts agree with this scenario, expecting it to grow to the height of 1.1100. The next target is 1.1160. 20% of analysts believe that the pair will nevertheless go down to around 1.0800. And 30%, supported by the oscillators on D1, expect the continuation of the side trend;

- GBP/USD. According to the calculations of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, unorderly Brexit will subtract 0.5 pp from the Eurozone GDP, and as much as 2 pp from the Misty Albion GDP(!). Such a fall, according to the OECD experts, will put the Eurozone on the brink of a collapse, and Britain will plunge into a deep recession. Responding to such forecasts, markets, like ordinary consumers, tried to get rid of the pound, as a result of which this currency approached the 2016 lows.
If you look at the graph, you can see that three years ago, having pushed away from zone 1.1945-1.1985, the pair went up and, having passed 2,400 points, reached the height of 1.4345 in January 2018. This “historical” experience is pushing some investors to buy the pound right now, hoping that the situation with Brexit will be somehow settled, and the Bank of England, fighting inflation, will begin to raise interest rates.
Among analysts, the number of supporters of this development today is 40%. 80% of the oscillators on D1 also agree with this prediction. If the bullish scenario is implemented, the pair will first rise to the zone 1.2575-1.2645, and then 100 points higher. The most ambitious forecasts indicate the pair growth to the level of 1.3100 by the end of the year.
However, at the moment, the Brexit question remains open, and therefore most analysts (60%), supported by 70% of the oscillators on H4 and graphical analysis on D1, maintain a pessimistic mood, expecting that during the autumn, the pair will try again to approach its absolute low over the past 228 (!) years when on October 7, 2016 one pound was worth a little more than 1.19 dollars (in 1791 the pair GBP/USD was at around 4.55). The closest support areas are 1.2385-1.2400, 1.2280-1.2300, 1.2065-1.2200, 1.1955-1.2015;

- USD/JPY. For the reasons described above, most experts (65%) have supported the bears by voting for the fall of the dollar and the return of the pair to the area of 105.75-106.75.85% of indicators on H4 agree with this scenario. However, 15% of oscillators are already giving signals about the pair being oversold.
35% of analysts consider the strengthening of the yen a temporary phenomenon and therefore predict the pair will rise to the height of 109.00.
As for the graphical analysis, at the first stage it draws the pair's growth to the horizon of 108.50 and then its fall to the level of 106.75. The following support levels are 105.75 and 105.00. The target of the bears is the low of 08/26/2019 at the level of 104.45;

- Cryptocurrencies. Despite the constant assurances of the crypto market “guru” about the inevitable rise of Bitcoin to 50, 100 or 200 thousand dollars, its price still remains in the consolidation zone, moving along the $10,000 horizon. Moreover, the volatility of the BTC/USD pair is decreasing day by day. And it seems that this situation is quite suitable for large players building this low “fence” and earning on the volume of transactions, and not on the frantic jumps of quotes.
Of course, a breakthrough can occur at any time. However, it is difficult to say in the current situation when this will happen and in which direction the price will go. We only note that at the moment, 65% of the experts surveyed remain bullish optimistic, and 35% are expecting the pair to drop to around $8,000.


Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  #371  
Old 29-09-2019, 07:39
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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 30 - October 04, 2019


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The worse the things are for Trump, the better they are for the dollar. Such a conclusion can be made by looking at the quotes’ charts. Now, due to a conversation with the President of Ukraine, the US President is facing impeachment, and the dollar index has already risen to the highs around 99.00. The euro retreated another 100 points, as a result of which the EUR/USD pair updated its lows, dropping to the level of April 2017, and ended the week at 1.0940;

- GBP/USD. The dollar is growing not only due to the economic downturn in the Old World, but also to the growing concern about Brexit. The British Parliament has no way to deal with Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and he, in turn, is in confrontation with both Parliament and Brussels, which does not want to make concessions. In such a situation, Michael Saunders, a member of the Bank of England 's Monetary Policy Committee, said the Bank might be forced to lower interest rates, even if a no-deal Brexit is avoided.
Such a statement from one of the financial "hawks" pushed the pound even further down. As a result, as most experts predicted (60%), the British currency is weakened by more than 200 points, and at the end of the week session it cost 1.229 US dollars per pound;

- USD/JPY. Recall that most experts (65%) supported the bears by voting for the fall of the dollar and the return of the pair to the area of 105.75-106.75. Indeed, starting from the moment the trading session opened, the pair went down, reaching the local bottom at 106.95 by Tuesday evening. After this, a U-turn followed, and the pair returned to where it had already been seven days ago, completing the five-day period at 107.95;

- Cryptocurrencies. What the bulls were so afraid of did happen. Everyone understood that the three-month localization Bitcoin prices in the $10,000 area should, finally finish with a breakthrough. But just in which direction? The scenario we announced for the pair to fall to around $8,000 was supported by 35% of experts, who, as a result, turned out to be right. On September 24, the day already nicknamed Black Tuesday, the basic cryptocurrency flew down, losing almost 17% and reaching $8.115. (During the “minute flow” on the Binance crypto exchange, someone managed to buy bitcoin for only some $1,800). The bulls' attempt to win back the losses failed. Only on one BitMEX cryptocurrency exchange, mainly due to the triggering of stop orders, “long” positions of $650 million were closed. On Thursday, the decline continued, and the BTC/USD was able to find the local bottom only reaching the horizon of $7,700.
According to one version, the market crash is associated with the complete disappointment with trading volumes on the Bakkt platform, intended for trading cryptocurrency futures. Recall that it began working on Monday, September 23, and on the first day only 71 contracts were sold, each with a volume of 1 BTC. Futures trading was supposed to help the crypto industry. But the opposite happened, and the day after the start of Bakkt there came a "Black Tuesday."
Naturally, falling into the abyss, Bitcoin pulled altcoins along with it. So, the week low for Ethereum (ETH/USD) was fixed at $154.3 (minus 30%), for Litecoin (LTC/USD) - at $50.5 (minus 34%), for Ripple (XRP/USD) - $ 0.213 (minus 28%). The total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market decreased by more than 20% in seven days, from $ 277 billion to $ 218 billion.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The dollar continues to be in demand amid confusion with Brexit and weak economic statistics coming from the EU. It is also supported by the strong results of the auction on US Treasury bonds and some optimism regarding the outcome of the US-Chinese trade war. Thus, last week, the Minister of Commerce of China expressed hope that, a position suiting both sides would be found in negotiations with the United States.
But besides this shiny side, the medal has another, reverse side. It lies in the discontent of Trump and his administration with the growth of the dollar, which negatively affects the competitiveness of American industry. In this regard, it can be expected that, under pressure from the US President, the Fed will take certain steps towards quantitative easing (QE), which will lead, if not to the dollar weakening, then at least to slowing down of the further strengthening of the US currency.
This week we will see a lot of economic news from both Europe and the United States. The preliminary values of the German Consumer Price Index (September 30) and the EU (October 01) will be published. Also, on Tuesday, October 1 and Wednesday October 2, ISM Business Activity Indices in the US manufacturing and services sectors will be released. And on the first Friday of the month, statistics on the US labor market, including NFP, will traditionally be released. The business week will be completed by a speech by Fed Chairman J. Powell.
Regarding the opinion of experts, 55% of them expect a correction of the EUR/USD pair up to the zone 1.1000-1.1100. 15% of the oscillators on D1 and W1 also support this scenario, giving signals that the pair is being oversold. The remaining 45% of analysts, along with the overwhelming number of indicators, have sided with the bears, expecting the dollar to further strengthen and the pair to decline to the 1.0800 horizon. The nearest support is 1.0885. A compromise option is drawn by graphical analysis on D1: first, a decline to the level of 1.0800, then movement in the channel 1.0800-1.0885 and a subsequent return to the height of 1.1000;

- GBP/USD. On Monday, the last day of September, the data on the UK GDP for the 2nd quarter will be released. The indicator is expected to show an increase of 0.7% (from -0.2% to + 0.5%). However, this is unlikely to have a long-term impact on the pound, whose exchange rate is still determined by the confusion around Brexit, the date of which, October 31, is inexorably approaching.
In this situation, 45% of the experts, supported by graphical analysis on D1 and most indicators, expect the pair to try to update the September 3 low, 1.1960. Immediate support is at the levels of 1.2210, 1.2080, 1.2015.
25% of analysts have voted for the lateral movement of the pair along the Pivot Point 1.2300. And another 30% of experts expect its growth to the height of 1.2500. Such a forecast is supported by 15% of the oscillators on H4 and D1, signaling overselling of the pair. The nearest resistance is in the zone of 1.2385-1.2415 ;

- USD/JPY. As for the yen, investors will wait for the developments in the US-Chinese trade war and the results of the meeting of the Bank of Japan in late October, which may give a regulatory impetus to the country's economy. Pushing the yen up may decrease the yield on US bonds.
In the meantime, the voices of experts are divided as follows. 40% of analysts and graphical analysis on D 1 have voted for the pair to decline. The goal is a breakthrough of support in the zone 107.00 and the transition to the zone 105.75-106.70. The next target is 105.00. 60% of the experts, 100% of trend indicators on Н4 and 90% on D1 have voted for the pair to reach the zone of 109.00. The nearest resistance is 108.50;

- Cryptocurrencies. It seems that the climatic chaos on the planet is reflected in the crypto market as well. And instead of the crypto spring promised by the famous investor Thomas Lee, another crypto winter is setting in. At least, the rise of Bitcoin to 50, 100 or 200 thousand dollars predicted by many gurus has not yet happened. And the fact that the current rebound from $7,700 has not received any serious development indicates the lack of consumer appetite among investors.
The cryptocurrency “Fear & Greed Index” on Thursday reached the “12” mark, which corresponds to the “extreme fear”. According to the developers of the index, this is a good moment to open “long” positions, however, as already mentioned, there are no active purchases. And it is possible that they will begin only when the price approaches the zone of $7,000-7,400.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  #372  
Old 01-10-2019, 10:35
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Saigon Financial Education Summit Closes with NordFX Award


At the end of September, the largest metropolis of Vietnam, the ten millionth Ho Chi Minh city, saw an event that attracted the attention of not only numerous specialists, but also those who want to gain experience in online trading and investing in financial markets. One of the participants of the Saigon Financial Education Summit (SFES) was NordFX, with an impressive team of this international broker at its booth.


The NordFX brand is already well-known in Vietnam. SFES also made it possible to introduce the summit participants to the latest developments of this brokerage company in the field of not only currency trading, but also work with cryptocurrencies, as well as portfolio and individual investment in shares of the world's major companies.

Another attractive tool for traders is the opportunity to profit from transactions with major world stock indexes, such as Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Nikkei, etc., as well as with indices that reflect the movement of leading cryptocurrencies.

The final chord of the summit was the awarding of financial companies that have deserved the greatest recognition and respect. The winners were determined by open online voting, as a result of which the NordFX brokerage company received the Excellent Affiliate Program prize for its two-level affiliate program, which has already attracted over 25,000 people from different countries.

It should be noted that it is easy to become a partner of NordFX, for this you only need to go through a short registration procedure.

You can learn the details of the terms and benefits of the program at https://nordfxpartners.com.


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  #373  
Old 07-10-2019, 06:54
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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 7 - 11, 2019


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. Most experts (55%) expected a correction of the pair up to the zone of 1.1000. This scenario was also supported by 15% of the oscillators on D1 and W1, giving clear signals about the pair being oversold. This forecast can be considered fulfilled by 100%, since the EUR rate rose on Thursday September 3 to the level of 1.0999 USD. The warning of the graphical analysis was also true that before going to the level of 1.1000, the pair may expect a decline, which it showed at the very beginning of the week.
The growth of the European currency was supported by weak macro statistics from the USA, caused in many respects by the trade wars waged by President Trump. Thus, the ISM index of business activity in the service sector showed a fall from 56.4 to 52.6. After its publication on October 3, the market drew attention to the release on the American labor market, which traditionally saw the light on the first Friday of the month, October 4. The number of new jobs created in the USA outside the agricultural sector (Non-Farm Payrolls) fell by almost 20% (from 168K to 136K), which also indicates the approach of a recession.
It is such indicators as ISM and NFP that determine the steps taken by the US Federal Reserve to change the interest rate. Therefore, the key event was the speech of Jerome Powell at the very end of the working week, from which investors hoped to find out the Fed's plans for the coming months.
Powell is famous for his ability to say a lot and not say anything specific. It so happened this time as well. As a result, after making several light jumps, the pair froze at around 1.0980;

- GBP/USD. In the British Isles, the first week of October was surprisingly calm. Nothing extraordinary happened around Brexit. Therefore, the [air ended up on Friday October 3rd in the same zone as it had been seven days before. Most of the time it moved in the side channel in the range 1.2275-1.2350, although both the bulls and the bears made several attempts to go beyond it. So, the local low was fixed at 1.2205, the high was at 1.2415, and the range of exchange rate fluctuations was 210 points;

- USD/JPY. As for the yen, it was expected that investors would wait for the developments in the US-China trade war. The yen could be pushed up by a decrease in the yield on American bonds. As a result, the fog around the negotiations between Washington and Beijing did not clear, and the yield on 10-year US government bonds fell by 12%. Thanks to these factors, as well as the weak macroeconomic statistics from the US, the yen rose, reaching on Thursday the values of a month ago in the area of 106.50. The final point of the week was set by the Japanese currency at 106.85;

- Cryptocurrencies. The cryptocurrency “Fear & Greed Index” rose from the red zone of “extreme fear” to the orange zone of “ordinary fear”. The fear that Bitcoin could fall even lower has not gone away. The market just calmed down and came to its senses a bit after an unsuccessful start of the Bakkt crypto futures trading and the ensuing panic on September 24th. Traders and investors took a break, which is clearly visible on the BTC/USD chart. The maximum volatility of the pair last week occurred on September 30 - October 01 and amounted to about 9%. For the rest of the time, the pair moved along the $8.190 horizon in an even narrower side channel, not exceeding 5%.
Following the main cryptocurrency, the main altcoins, Ethereum (ETH/USD), Litecoin (LTC/USD), Ripple (XRP/USD), etc. also went into the side trend. The total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market returned to the values of mid-May 2019 and amounts to just over $223 billion.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Over the coming week, we are waiting for a fairly large number of events, including numerous speeches by the head of the US Federal Reserve J. Powell in the first half of the week. However, the most important events will undoubtedly be the publication of the minutes of the Fed Governing Council on Wednesday October 9, and the report on the meeting of their colleagues from the ECB on Thursday October 10. Both of these documents should shed the light on the monetary and financial policies of the United States and the EU in the near future.
At the moment, the votes of experts are distributed as follows. 60% of them, supported by graphical analysis on D1, vote in favor of the pair falling and attempting to update the October 01 low 1.0880. The remaining 40% of analysts, in full agreement with the graphical analysis on H4, adhere to the opposite point of view, believing that the European currency has not yet exhausted its potential for growth and the pair will be able to rise to the zone of 1.1100.
And finally, the indicators. Both oscillators and trend indicators on H4 are mostly colored green, on D1, half of them already change color to red, and on W1, red becomes dominant. At the same time, about 15% of the oscillators are already signaling the pair is overbought on H4 and D1;

- GBP/USD. On Tuesday, October 08, the speech of the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney is scheduled. However, it is not him, but Prime Minister Boris Johnson who now acts as the main newsmaker in the UK. And what he says, and even more so does, excites investors much more (no offense be told to Mr. Carney). But what Mr. Johnson will say and do is not yet clear to anyone (perhaps even to himself either). Only three weeks are left before Britain’s exit from the EU, and it’s unlikely that Johnson will be able to agree with Brussels on the terms of a deal advantageous for his country. So, either Brexit without a deal, or ... its another extension.
Although miracles do happen sometimes... But, as the survey shows, 65% of analysts, like graphical analysis, do not believe in them. Therefore, they are expecting the pound to fall further in an attempt to update September 3 low at 1.1960. The nearest supports are at the levels of 1.2200 and 1.2070.
It is only 35% of experts who believe in Boris Johnson and expect the best, they are waiting for the strengthening of the pound and raising the pair to the height of 1.2525.
Among the indicators, the situation is similar to the situation in the British Parliament: a complete mixture of red, green and gray colors, as well as discord regarding the pair being overbought or oversold on different time frames. So, you should not count on the help of indicators in making decisions at the moment;

- USD/JPY. Graphical analysis and 65% of experts count on the growth of the yen and the fall of the pair. Moreover, this is not only a weekly forecast, but also a forecast until the end of 2019. 100% of trend indicators on H4 and D1 agree with this, as well as 75% on W1. But among oscillators, the situation is different: 75% of them vote for the southward movement on H4, 60% vote on D1, and only 25% on W1. The goals of the bears are 106.50, 105.70, 105.00 and 104.45. The goals of the bulls are 107.55, 108.50, 109.00;

- Cryptocurrencies. Digital market fans continue to mesmerize investors with promises of sky-high profits. So, the developer of the famous antivirus software John McAfee claims that the price of Bitcoin can reach $1 million in 2020. He explains his forecast with a limited number of Bitcoins, 85% of which have already been mined. A more "modest" forecast is given by analysts at the German Bayerische Landesbank (BayernLB ).In their opinion, the planned halving of the mining reward for the next year could lead to an increase in the BTC price to $90,000, which at the current price of $8,200 will yield almost 1000% of the profit.
However, along with optimists, voices of the skeptics are heard as well, whose number is constantly growing. In the two years that have passed since the second half of 2017, cryptocurrencies not only failed to supplant traditional money, but did not even become any serious part of the financial system. They did not begin to be used on a large scale as a means of payment. Moreover, falling into the grip of state regulation, they simply lose their idea of a financial market independent of governments.
Currently, only 25% of analysts believe that Bitcoin will be able to rise above the $8,500-8,600 zone in the coming days. Most speak of a sideways movement with some dominance of bears that can lower the pair to $7,500-7,700.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  #374  
Old 14-10-2019, 05:29
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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 14-18, 2019


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. Last week was marked by two events. The first is progress on the next stage of trade negotiations between the US and China, the beginning of which was called by president Trump "very, very good." The second is a breakthrough in the Brexit negotiations. Increased hopes for a regulated UK exit pushed the pound up, followed by a pull to the North by the European currency as well. It was facilitated by the minutes of the ECB meeting published on Thursday, October 10, which confirmed that the Bank is coming to the end of the easing policy (QE). As a result, the pair was able to rise to 1.1062;

- GBP/USD. Only 35% of experts believed in the new Prime Minister Boris Johnson and counted on a miracle. And now the miracle did happen, and even exceeded all expectations. Analysts were waiting for the pair to rise to the height of 1.2525, in reality, the pound soared by more than 500 points, reaching the height of 1.2708. The reason was a breakthrough in the negotiations on the Irish border, following which Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said that they were "very positive and promising." It is possible that Johnson is ready to introduce special terms for Northern Ireland and allow it to remain in the European Customs Union for four years after Brexit.
According to experts, the GBP/USD pair was so oversold that any positive news was able to cause the pound to rise. And in this case, the positive turn in the negotiations worked like a trigger, allowing the British currency to become heavier by 4% in just a couple of days;

- USD/JPY. But for the yen, unlike the pound, it seems that hard days have come: thanks to the growth of risk sentiment, the Japanese currency has undergone a massive sell-off, resulting in its quotes’ fall by almost 200 points, to the level of 108.62 yen per dollar. Among the reasons are several. These are hopes for a favorable outcome of the US-China trade war, progress in Brexit negotiations, the latest minutes of the ECB meeting and a sharp rise in the US bond yields;

- Cryptocurrencies. The capitalization of the crypto market ($234 billion) is still small compared to traditional markets (the gold market is estimated at $9 trillion, the stock market – at $66 trillion, the bond market – at $86 trillion) and does not exceed two tenths of a percent of their total assets. But, despite this, the topic of cryptocurrencies constantly arises on the crest of the world politics.
So, the famous American billionaire Daniel Steven Pena said that cryptocurrencies can be the result of a conspiracy of Russia against the United States, and President Vladimir Putin himself is behind the creation of Bitcoin. This statement was echoed by the appeal of members of the House of Representatives of the US Congress to the Head of the Fed with a proposal to issue a crypto-dollar. With this step, the authors of the appeal want to protect American finances from the influence of someone else's hostile cryptocurrency.
A similar initiative was made by German Vice-Chancellor and Finance Minister Olaf Scholz, who called for the release of the digital Euro. "We should not leave this space to China, Russia, the United States or any of the private suppliers," he said.
Crypto-dollar and crypto-Euro are things of the distant future, but already now governments and Central banks are beginning to actively fight against potential independent competitors. Zuckerberg's (Facebook) release of his own Libra coin came under intense pressure. The next in line is TON-coin, the launch of which Telegram is rapidly approaching.
For now, the main cryptocurrency on which the entire market is based, of course, remains Bitcoin. The forecast for the past week, which was supported by the majority of experts (75%), assumed a lateral movement of the BTC/USD pair with some dominance of bears, able to lower the pair to $7,500-7,700. However, on Monday, bitcoin found a local bottom at $7,795, and then turned around and went up. The change in trend may have been due to the launch of the p2p platform from Binance, where Bitcoin and Ethereum will be traded for Chinese yuan.
On Wednesday, October 09, the pair managed to overcome a two-week resistance in the $8,350 zone and on Friday reached a high of $8,815. After that, it returned to the $8,350 horizon, which may now become a new strong support area for it.
Altcoins obediently repeated the movements of the reference cryptocurrency for the whole week. However, while the swing of Ethereum (ETH/USD) and ripple (XRP/USD) was about 17%, Litecoin (LTC/USD) behaved somewhat calmer, demonstrating volatility at the level of 13%.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- UR/USD. Regarding the final outcome of the US-China trade negotiations, markets are showing reasonable restraint, expecting endless disputes to continue, and maybe even their complete collapse and the introduction of new duties. In the coming week, we also expect some important news that can have a strong impact on the rates of the currencies in question. Among them are statistics from China on Monday October 14 and Friday October 18, as well as the UK and Eurozone inflation reports on Tuesday October 15 and Wednesday October 17. On Thursday, increased volatility may be caused by the report on industrial production in the United States. A significant decrease in this indicator is predicted: from 0.6% to 0.1%. And if the actual value coincides with the forecast, one can expect a decline in the dollar.
The fall of the dollar and the rise of the pair are expected by 70% of experts, whose forecast is supported by the readings of 75% of oscillators and graphical analysis on H4 and D1. The support zone in case of growth of the pair is 1.1000. Targets are 1.1075, 1.1100 and 1.1160.
The opposite point of view is held by 30% of analysts and 20% of oscillators, giving signals about the pair being overbought. The targets are 1.1000, 1.0940, 1.0925 and the low of 01 October 1.0880;

- GBP/USD. In fact, it is too early to exult over the successful conclusion of Brexit. Johnson still needs the terms of the deal with the EU be approved by Parliament. And this, we recall, the previous Prime Minister of Great Britain Theresa May failed to do, four times. The negotiations with Ireland have also not yet concluded. In addition, the European Council summit on Brexit will be held on the coming Thursday and Friday. Each of these steps can slow down the process of concluding a deal or even become an insurmountable obstacle in its path. In the latter case, the EU is ready to provide a new extension until the summer of 2020 to still ensure an orderly exit of the UK from the EU.
These difficulties, as well as too rapid growth of the pound last week, led to the fact that now 75% of experts expect a reversal of the trend and the fall of the British currency to the 1.2200 zone. This scenario is supported by graphical analysis on D1 and 15% of oscillators on H4 and D1, signaling the pound is overbought.
The vast majority of oscillators and trend indicators, as well as 25% of experts waiting for the strengthening of the pound and the rise of the pair to the height of 1.2800, still believe in the luck of Boris Johnson. Naturally, the emergence of serious positive news regarding Brexit, not to mention the signing of the Agreement, can lead to another jerk of the pound to cosmic heights;

- USD/JPY. On H4, 100% of trend indicators look up, on D1, a little less – 90%. 75% of oscillators are colored green on both H4 and D1, the remaining 15% give signals about the pair being overbought. The graphical analysis on D1 indicates a decline of the pair to the horizon of 106.65, and then a return to the height of 108.40.
As for the experts, their opinions are equally divided: a third are for the pair's growth, a third are for the fall and a third vote for the sideways trend. The support zones are 107.00, 106.65 and 105.70, the zones of resistance are109.00 and 109.85;

- Cryptocurrencies. As mentioned above, breaking through the two-week resistance at $8,350, Bitcoin may now turn this zone into a strong enough support. Moreover, the cryptocurrency Fear & Greed Index, rising from the red zone of "extreme fear", has almost passed the orange zone of "Ordibary Fear" and is approaching its neutral position. If this happens, the next target for the BTC/USD pair will be to consolidate in the $9,000 area. However, this forecast is supported by only 35% of analysts. Most of them (65%) have sided with the bears, expecting the pair to decline first to the horizon of $8,000, and then to $400 below.
Another "cosmic" forecast, which we regularly talk about, was the statement of the creator of the famous antivirus John McAfee that in 2020 the price of Bitcoin will reach $1 million. The main impetus for reaching the bullish dynamics, according to him, will be the limited number if coins as well as the reduction in the number of altcoins, which will make the main coin the only reliable and stable asset.
Analysts of the TIE also predict a gloomy future for altcoins. According to their observations, interest in altcoins is rapidly falling, approaching zero in some cases. So, it is possible that out of thousands of coins only a few of the largest, such as Ethereum or Libra will remain afloat in a few months.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  #375  
Old 19-10-2019, 14:20
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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 21 - 25, 2019


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The main theme last week was undoubtedly Brexit. New Prime Minister Boris Johnson managed to reach a compromise with Brussels, and on Thursday October 17, the European Union Summit approved an agreement on the terms of Britain's exit from the EU and its date, November 01. This event, as well as the reduction of political and trade risks in Europe, Asia and America, "seasoned" with weak statistics from the US, opened the way to the north for the bulls.
The overwhelming majority of experts (70%) pointed to 1.1160 as the main target, and this forecast turned out to be absolutely correct: on Friday evening the pair managed to rise to this height, where it ended the week-long session;

- GBP/USD. Since October 08, the British currency has gained almost 800 points, or about 6%. And all this thanks to the hope for a coming successful completion of the" show " called Brexit, which has lasted for 3.5 years and od each all are quite tired. At the peak of optimism on Thursday, October 17, the pound was noted at 1.2990, followed by a correction and a finish at 1.2940;

- USD/JPY. Recall that the opinions of the experts concerning the yen were spread equally last week: a third voted for the pair's growth, a third for its fall and a third for a sideways trend. And they were all right. At first, the pair fell slightly to the level of 108.02. Then it rose a little, to the level of 108.90, then moved sideways and finished almost where it was a week ago, in the Pivot Point zone 108.40-108.45;

– cryptocurrencies. Twitter users have estimated that the price of the main cryptocurrency has increased by 838.078.685% over the past ten years. But it seems that such space takeoffs are no longer worth waiting for. Not so long ago, Bitcoin was pushed up by the news of the launch of major projects such as Libra by Facebook and TON by Telegram. (Though it's not really clear why. After all, if both of these coins appeared, they would constitute a powerful competition to Bitcoin). But many governments and regulators have turned on the Facebook project, and Telegram has postponed the launch of TON altogether amid problems with American legislation. Thus, both of these drivers, if not completely disappeared, are at least greatly weakened. And this could not but affect the crypto market. Over the past ten days, its capitalization has fallen from $236 billion to $224 billion, and the price of Bitcoin, as most of our experts had expected, has fallen to the lower limit of the side corridor of $7,795-8,700.
Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Litecoin (LTC/USD) dutifully followed to the south in the wake of the main cryptocurrency. But as for the Ripple (XRP/USD), it shows a stubborn character for the last four weeks. During this time, the price of the coin rose by 40%, returning to a strong medium-term support/resistance level in the 0.30 zone. Most likely, this rise is caused by a number of positive news related directly to the company itself.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- GBP/USD. We put this pair before the Euro/Dollar because everything that will happen to the pound in the coming week will have a powerful impact on the quotes of the other leading currencies.
In fact, the new Brexit agreement is basically the same text that the previous Prime Minister Theresa May failed for three times to "push" through the British Parliament. And now on Saturday 19 October, Prime Minister Boris Johnson will try to do it. And without Parliamentary approval, the deal with the EU will not take place.
The main difference of Johnson's version is the absence of the so-called "Irish backstop", because of which the UK risked remaining in the European customs Union. But Johnson failed to completely close this border gap, and Northern Ireland will still have to obey EU trade rules. And in this, many see a threat of the collapse of the United Kingdom. The Democratic unionist party of Northern Ireland is unhappy as well. "We do not intend to vote for this project," said the DUP leader Arlene Foster. "It's not the end yet. It's not even the beginning of the end! »
So, for the first time since the 1982 Falklands war, MPs will cancel their weekend plans and meet for an emergency meeting. When this forecast is written, we do not yet know how "super Saturday" ends. But a simple count shows that Johnson may be a few votes short and the vote will fail and bring back the old uncertainty about the outcome of Brexit.
In any case, there is a lot of chance that on Monday, October 21, the markets will open with a big gap. Almost 20% of oscillators already indicate the British currency is overbought. And in case of Johnson's defeat, we will see a powerful counterattack of the bears and the return of the pair to the lows of the first decade of October in the area of 1.2200. (Supports 1.2515, 1.2380 and 1.2280). If the Agreement is approved, the pound has a lot of chances to exceed this year's maximum at 1.3380.
If we move from the weekly forecast to the medium-term, it becomes clear that even in the case of a regulated Brexit, the pound will still be under pressure. Accustomed to working within the EU, the UK economy, left alone, will surely begin to experience serious difficulties, which will force the Bank of England to cut interest rates and take a number of serious steps to ease monetary policy. In such a situation, the pound has a lot of chances to roll back from the highs and return to the 1.3100 zone;

- EUR/USD. In the coming week, the interest rate decisions of the People's Bank of China on Monday 21 October and the ECB on Thursday 24 October will be known. And if the rate on the Euro is likely to remain unchanged, Beijing may present markets with a small surprise. The data on business activity in Germany, which will also be released next Thursday, are also of interest. But, as already mentioned, the main trend of the pair will be set by the pound, which will either pull the Euro up, or overturn it by a hundred or two points. The bears ' targets are September-October lows of 1.0850-1.0925, the bulls' targets are 1.1250-1.1350.
At the moment, the majority of experts (80%) expect that Boris Johnson will be able to get a majority of votes in Parliament, and only 20% predict the fall of the pair. It is interesting that in the transition to the medium-term forecast, the balance of forces is mirrored, and here 80% are waiting for the decline of the pair to the zone 1.0800-1.0900 by the end of the year;

- USD/JPY. The targets for the yen remained unchanged. Support zones – 107.00, 106.65 and 105.70, resistance - 109.00 and 109.85. It is only the mood of the experts that has changed. If 60% of them vote for the growth of the pair the next week, and 40% are for the fall, then in the medium – term interval everything is vice versa: 40% are for the growth and 60% are for the fall.
There is no unity among the indicators either. If on H4 80% of oscillators are colored red and 20% signal the pair is oversold, then on D1 80% have changed the color to green, and 20% believe that the pair is oversold.
The result of the discord is summed up by the graphical analysis on D1, which draws first a fall to the level of 107.50, and then a rise to the height of 109.00;

– cryptocurrencies. The BTC/USD pair has been moving along the $7,795-8,700 corridor with a Pivot Point of $8,300 for almost a month, starting from September 25. The same thing happened from mid-May to mid-June. But then, if you follow the Elliott wave theory, it was a respite (or corrective wave #4) between the impulse waves #3 and # 5 of the uptrend (which is clearly visible on the W1 timeframe). Now the picture is reversed and, following the same Elliott, we see the end of wave #5 already on a downtrend. In theory, we should expect an upward correction of the pair, especially since the MFI indicator on H4, D1 and W1 is in the lower, critical zone, and the MACD on H4 and D1 indicates divergence. But it has long been noticed that when it comes to cryptocurrencies, graphic and technical analysis often slip. Much more important here are the news background and manipulations of large speculators. The fact remains that over the past four months, the price of Bitcoin has decreased by more than 40%, and the crypto-currency "Fear & Greed Index" is still in the "Fear" zone.
Pessimistic sentiment is supported by 60% of experts who expect a breakthrough of the lower border of the corridor and the fall of the BTC/USD pair to the $7,000-7,400 zone. The remaining 40% of analysts do not expect Bitcoin to take off either. In their opinion, in the coming week, the reference cryptocurrency will be traded in the range of $8,300-8,700 per 1 coin.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  #376  
Old 27-10-2019, 07:29
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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 28 - November 01, 2019


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. Since it is not only the pound that depends on what happens in the framework of Brexit, but also the Euro, to begin with, we will tell you what the situation looks like with the UK's exit from the EU a week before this exit (if it happens of course). And the situation looks like... a vicious circle.
On the one hand, Prime Minister Boris Johnson refuses to withdraw his draft EU withdrawal Agreement until Parliament agrees to an election on December 12. But the Parliament does not agree, because the opposition wants Johnson to rule out the option of leaving without an Agreement with the EU, as well as for the EU to agree to an extension of the terms of this exit. The EU, for its part, before deciding on how long to extend Brexit, is waiting for the consent (or disagreement) of Parliament for early elections on December 12.
Is everything clear? Or not? Judging by the reaction of the markets, it is difficult to understand the current situation, but it is even more difficult to make any predictions. That is why we did not see any significant jumps in quotations last week. The Euro weakened slightly against the dollar, but this fall was only 100 points, and the pair ended the five-day session at 1.1080.
In addition to the endless uncertainty with Brexit, additional pressure on the Euro is certainly exerted by the slowing European economy. Despite the efforts of the ECB, inflation can not reach the target level of 2%. In September, the European regulator lowered its key interest rate to negative -0.5% and announced its intention to resume the program of quantitative easing (QE). On October 31, the current head of the ECB leaves his post, and it is possible that with the arrival of the new head, Christine Lagarde, the policy of the European Central Bank will undergo some changes. But at the moment, from the point of view of investors, the advantage is on the side of the dollar, as the US Federal Reserve rate is positive and is 2%;

- GBP/USD. So, instead of bringing clarity, the vote on the terms of Brexit in the UK Parliament on October 19 confused the situation even more. As a result, "super Saturday" did not lead to super jumps in the financial markets, but caused only a smooth decline in the British currency by about 200 points, returning the quotes to the levels of seven days ago, to the 1.2825 zone;

- USD/JPY. Giving a forecast for this pair the previous week, we noted a complete confusion and discord among both analysts and technical analysis tools. It seems that speculators have lost interest in the Japanese currency for a while, as a result, the pair moved in the corridor 108.45-108.75 most of the time. Two attempts of the bears to reverse the situation can not be taken into account, as the pair very quickly returned to this super-narrow channel, only 30 points wide, closer to the upper border of which it put the final point, freezing at 108.65;

– cryptocurrencies. As one analyst put it, the head of Facebook "hammered the last nail into the lid of the cryptocurrency coffin" last week. More precisely, Zuckerberg and congressmen hammered it together during his appearance before the House of Representatives Financial Service Committee. Congressmen have not only expressed concern about the spread of cryptocurrencies in general and the Libra project in particular. They said cryptocurrencies pose a threat to the traditional currency market and could be used to finance criminal activity and money laundering. But this is not all: during the hearings, a proposal was made to think about a bill on a complete ban of cryptocurrencies.
As for Mark Zuckerberg, he said that Libra will not be launched until it receives the permission of the regulator. And in general, according to him, Libra is a risky project, and he, Zuckerberg, is not at all sure that this initiative of his is able to bring him profit.
Recall that shortly before, against the background of problems with the American legislation, Telegram "turned on the back speed" and postponed the launch of its TON cryptocurrency.
We have repeatedly written that the crypto market depends on the news background as much as possible. And the news from the US Congress led to the fact that on Wednesday October 23, the benchmark currency collapsed to a five-month low, shrinking by almost $1,000 in a day, and reaching the bottom at $7.330.
But the crypto surprises did not end there, and it turned out that it was too early to bury this market. On Friday, October 25, the market literally exploded, and the bitcoin exchange rate made an incredible jump of $3,000, adding a maximum of 40% and reaching $10,500.
This was the largest increase since February 2014., and it was caused by news again: that Chinese President XI Jinping supported the development of blockchain. At the same time, the editorial of the Chinese newspaper People's Daily, which reported on this statement, doesn't have a word about bitcoin or cryptocurrencies in general, but the bulls did not need them.
Following bitcoin, almost all altcoins from the TOP 100 went up. Ethereum (ETH/USD) jumped almost 30%, ripple (XRP/USD) – 31%, litecoin (LTC/USD) – 35%.
As a result, coin owners and traders who have already opened long positions on bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies were able to get a very significant profit. Those who "jumped into the last car of the departing train" suffered no less significant losses: the BTC/USD pair turned around very quickly and collapsed to the level of $9,055 – a powerful support on which it relied since mid-June.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Some analysts believe that the coming week may be the "hottest" this year. In addition to the fact that the UK may leave the European Union on Thursday, October 31, the day before, on Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve may lower the interest rate on the dollar from 2.0% to 1.75%. It seems that the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell has succumbed to the exhortations of President Trump. His office has already launched a $60 billion monthly asset purchase program In October, and now here is another step toward stimulating the American real sector. Powell does not want to call what is happening a quantitative easening (QE) for some reason, but perhaps he is right: a number of experts believe that there is just another emission of the dollar mass and pumping the economy with unsecured money. With a certain degree of probability, this is due to the upcoming presidential elections in the United States. And Trump, who is seeking re-election to the second term, is pressing the Fed to cut the rate further, down to zero.
Shortly before the Fed meeting, on October 30, preliminary data on US GDP will be known and, according to forecasts, it will show a slowdown in the economic growth in the III quarter from 2.0% to 1.6%. If so, Trump will get another lever of pressure on Powell and the Fed led by him.
As for other events of the coming week, it is worth noting the preliminary estimate of the GDP growth and inflation data in the Eurozone, which will be known on Thursday 31 October. Data on the US labor market (including NFP) and the business activity index from ISM will traditionally be released on Friday, November 01.
Summing up the forecasts of experts for the coming week, it has not been possible to form any definite opinion: 50% are for the fall of the pair, 50% are for its growth. A similar discrepancy is observed in the readings of indicators on D1. This is due to uncertainty and the decision of the Federal Reserve on the interest rate, and with the exit/non-exit of Britain from the EU.
It should be noted that even if there is no exit without a deal and Brexit gets a delay, it can still have a negative impact on the Euro exchange rate, as a result of which the pair will rush to the minimum of October 01 in the area of 1.0880, which can be reached during November. 70% of experts agree with this forecast. The main supports are located at 1.1065, 1.1000 and 1.0940 levels.
The signing of the agreement with the EU, supported by the UK Parliament, will push the pair up into the 1.1350-1.1400 zone. Resistances are at 1.1180, 1.1240 and 1.1300;

- GBP/USD. Most experts (60%) do not expect anything good for the pound in the near future. In full agreement with the graphical analysis on D1 and 80% of the indicators on H4, they are waiting for the pair to fall to the level of 1.2500. Supports are 1.2770 and 1.2580.
On the other hand, 20% of oscillators on H4 already give signals the pair is oversold, and 90% of their "colleagues" on D1 are painted green. 85% of trend indicators on D1 are looking to the north as well, the target is the height of 1.3200.
There were only 30% of experts in the list of "green activists" this week. The remaining 10% refused to give any forecasts and, perhaps, they are right: British politicians are able to turn any arguments, calculations and forecasts to dust;

- USD/JPY. In theory, the targets for the yen have remained unchanged. Support zones are 107.00, 106.65 and 105.70, those of resistance are109.00 and 109.85. But this is in theory. In reality, long-term bonds, with which the Japanese currency is strongly correlated, remain squeezed in a narrow range, curbing the risk appetite of investors. Of course, the above events of the week, as well as the decision of the Bank of Japan on the interest rate on Thursday 31 October could fuel interest in the yen, but this is again in theory. With almost 100% probability, the regulator will leave the interest rate unchanged at -0.1%.
Interestingly, analysts at J. P. Morgan Chase believe negative Central Bank rates are a "bad idea" that only prevents economies from emerging from recession. 80% of the surveyed experts agree with them, expecting that the yen will continue to fall, the pair will finally break through the upper limit of the corridor 108.45-108.75 and rise a little further to the north. But the graphical analysis on H4 predicts the continuation of this sideways trend at least for the first half of the week;

– cryptocurrencies. So, during the week, the BTC/USD pair first rapidly lost $1,000 in price, then even more rapidly rose by $3,000, and then collapsed again, shrinking in price by $1,445. Trying to give any forecast in the conditions of such volatility is a thankless task. Focusing on technical analysis tools is generally useless. It is necessary to give the market the opportunity to calm down a little and understand what the Chinese President really meant.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  #377  
Old 31-10-2019, 10:53
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Successful Traders - Successful Company. NordFX Shares Its Expertise with Traders in Vietnam and Beyond


One of the main priorities of NordFX is to improve the skills of traders, aimed at improving the results of their trading in the financial markets.

Constantly developing this direction, the company offers its customers the opportunity of both online and offline training. This is especially important in view of the constant updating and expansion of the range of products and tools that they can use in their work.

In addition to a wide range of currency pairs, NordFX clients can make transactions with major cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin and top altcoins, trade precious metals, oil, as well as open trading positions on major stock indices, such as Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Nikkei, etc.

NordFX Investment Funds are also of great interest, as they provide investors with access to shares of the world's largest companies, such as Apple, Ferrari, Boeing, Coca-Cola, Microsoft, Visa, Google, Alibaba and many others, even with a small capital.

At the moment, when visiting the NordFX website, the company's clients can take advantage of an impressive library and video library of educational materials designed for both beginners and experienced traders. This year Most Concise Forex Electronic Encyclopedia, written specifically for those who are just beginning to dive into the world of currency trading, has been published. And, of course, seminars are of great importance, which are conducted by both the company's employees and NordFX partners with extensive trading experience.

Thus, an event was held this October in the largest industrial center of Vietnam, Ho Chi Minh City, organized in an unusual form – in the form of a talk show, which was attended by representatives of TraderViet forum and NordFX, who answered questions from a large audience. During this talk show, each of its 130 participants was able to try their luck in a specialized quiz, share their knowledge, communicate with like-minded people, as well as get memorable gifts and souvenirs from NordFX.


It should be noted that this is not the only event held by NordFX in Vietnam. Just a month before, the company took part in the Saigon Financial Education Summit (SFES), and on November 09, 2019, we are looking forward to meeting everyone at Vietnam Traders Fair, which will be held in one of the most fashionable hotels in Ho Chi Minh City – Windsor Plaza Hotel. The admission is free.

You can find the details at https://vietnam.tradersfair.com/.


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  #378  
Old 03-11-2019, 09:33
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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 04 – 08, 2019


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. What was expected did happen: on Wednesday, October 30, the US Federal Reserve lowered the interest rate on the dollar from 2.0% to 1.75%. Naturally, the US currency began to fall, the pair went up, but the movement was quite moderate: the market has long been ready for this decision of the Federal Reserve. As a result, the pair hardly reached the level of 1.1175, returning to the medium-term support/resistance line, which began last March.
The key data on the US economy, which was released on Friday 01 November, didn't help the dollar a lot either. The number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector (NFP) in October was more than predicted (128K vs. 89K), but significantly less than the September value of 180K. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector ISM was also less than expected (48.3 instead of 48.9). As a result, the bears' attempt to push the pair down ended in a fiasco, and after reaching the level of 1.127, it turned around, went back up and ended the week at 1.1165;

- GBP/USD. It was decided to add a few more episodes to the protracted series called Brexit. Britain never came out of the EU. The main character of the series, Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who promised to "die in the ditch" if Brexit does not take place on October 31, changed his mind to die. The EU has granted the UK another extension, and now the country is heading for early parliamentary elections on December 12.
The next episode of the series will be devoted to the adoption by Parliament of amendments to the law on elections. And depending on which way the ship of British lawmaking heads, it depends on whether Prime Minister Johnson can stay at the helm.
The Brexit postponed once again and the weakening of the dollar allowed the pound to strengthen its positions somewhat, by the middle of Thursday, October 31, the GBP/USD pair rose by 150 points, then moved into a horizontal movement in the 1.2925-1.2975 corridor and finished at 1.2937;

- USD/JPY. As we predicted, the Bank of Japan left the interest rate unchanged at -0.1%. The growth of the yen last week was due to three main factors: the reduction of the US Federal Reserve interest rate, another slip in the preparation of the US-China trade agreement and, it is possible, the associated strong growth of long-term US Treasury bonds. According to Bloomberg, the Chinese side may not want to conclude any serious trade deals with the "unreliable President Trump." Trump, for his part, is unlikely to want to aggravate relations with China, so as not to damage the US economy in the run-up to the presidential election. So we can expect a long lull on this front.
Against this background, the result of the week was the strengthening of the Japanese currency to the level of 107.88. However, this was followed by a small rebound, as a result of which the pair put the final chord of the week at 108.16;

– cryptocurrencies. Fundstrat co-founder and analyst Tom Lee is confident that the stock market directly affects Bitcoin quotes. "Last Friday (October 25), the S&P 500 index began to grow actively due to the increase in the share price of a number of large technology companies. Bitcoin strengthened significantly as well. Many mentioned XI Jinping's speeches, but in fact everything could come together in the stock market, " Li said. However, he somehow did not take into account that the growth of technology stocks could be caused by the statement of the head of China regarding the popularization of digital currencies and blockchain.
Be that as it may, according to a report provided by Google Trends, thanks to the Bitcoin rally, the number of Internet requests on the topic of cryptocurrencies increased by 30 percent last week. But if the growth of Bitcoin caused the growth of requests, then the growth of requests did not affect Bitcoin in any way. As we expected, after such a shake-up, the market went into a calming stage, volatility gradually came to naught, and quotes, consolidating in the $9,250 zone, drew a figure known in technical analysis as the "pennant".
Following the main cryptocurrency (BTC/USD), such top altcoins as Ethereum (ETH/USD), Ripple (XRP/USD) and Litecoin (LTC/USD) did the same. The total market capitalization of the crypto market was not an exception, which is logical, its volume gradually decreased during the week from $257 billion to $239 billion.



As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. On November 1, the ECB began buying market assets worth 20 billion euros per month. On the same day, former IMF chief Christine Lagarde replaced Mario Draghi as head of the Bank. Under her, according to some experts, the monetary policy of the European regulator will become softer. That, as a consequence, will cause a decline in the Euro against the dollar.
But there is a reverse scenario. It suggests that under pressure from Trump, the US Federal Reserve will reduce the interest rate to zero. This will solve the problem with dollar liquidity and, providing the American market with cheap money, help Trump in re-election for a second term. The US government debt, according to the US Treasury Department, has already reached a record high of $23 trillion. And further printing of unsecured money could significantly weaken the dollar. Trump's pre-election intention to reduce the payroll tax can also contribute to the fall of the US currency.
This situation forces global players to be more cautious, as a result of which the monthly volatility in the EUR/USD pair fell to 4.5%. This happened only twice – in 2007. and in 2014.
If we talk about the very near future, the fall of the dollar and the growth of the Euro in the coming week is expected by 60% of analysts, supported by 90% of oscillators and trend indicators on H4 and D1. The nearest goal is the rise and consolidation of the pair in the 1.1200-1.1250 echelon. The next targets are 1.1350 and 1.1410.
40% of experts supported by graphical analysis and 10% of oscillators giving signals about the European currency being overbought voted for the decline of the Euro. In this scenario, the pair is most likely to move in the side channel 1.1075-1.1175. And in case of breakdown of its lower border, there will be a decrease to support in the 1.1000 zone.
The formation of local trends may be influenced by the change in the ISM business activity index in the service sector, the value of which will be known on Tuesday 05 November. According to forecasts, it can grow from 52.6 to 53.2, which in the short term will strengthen the dollar;

- GBP/USD. Thursday 07 November will be dedicated to the UK. On this day, the Bank of England will announce its decision on the interest rate, as well as the planned volume of asset purchases. These figures are likely to remain unchanged. Therefore, of greater interest is the speech of the head of the Bank Mark Carney, in which investors will look for an answer to the question of how the regulator will behave in the event of a particular outcome of the early parliamentary elections. Even here, though, Carney may confine himself to phrases as foggy as London weather.
At the moment, the vast majority of indicators are colored green. 65% of experts also expect that, following in the wake of the Euro, the pound will improve its position against the dollar. The nearest resistance is 1.3015, the target is 1.3125.
The remaining 35%, together with graphical analysis on H4 and D1, believe that the GBP/USD pair will stay in the side corridor 1.2790-1.3015. If its lower border breaks, the next support is in the 1.2700 zone;

- USD/JPY. It is unlikely to expect surprises from the meeting of the monetary policy Committee of the Bank of Japan on Monday 06 November as well. Moreover, last week the regulator not only confirmed the immutability of its course, but also removed the deadlines for it. Now it's "not until 2020," but " as long as will be needed." Rather, the yen will be affected on Tuesday by the ISM business activity index in the US services sector.
At the moment the opinions of the experts are distributed as follows: 65%, supported by 75% of indicators, vote for further decline of the pair, 30%, supported by 25% of indicators, side with the bulls. Support levels are 107.50 and 106.65, resistance levels are at108.50, 109.00, 109.30 and 110.70;

– cryptocurrencies. Professor of Economics at Stanford University Darrell Duffy believes that within 10 years, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will be able to completely replace the usual banking system. And regulatory pressure on Libra and other promising projects is a big mistake. "Regulators will regret that they could not find a common language with Zuckerberg and other developers. A shadow cryptocurrency with such a vast community (Facebook) can easily bring down the financial system in a matter of months, " Duffy threatened.
However, when moving from a 10-year timeframe to a 7-day timeframe, the appetites of most analysts become much more modest. So, 50% of them are waiting for the continuation of the sideways trend along the consolidation line in the corridor $9,000-9,500. 25% believe that the BTC/USD pair can reach the $9,700-10,000 zone, and the remaining 25%, on the contrary, expect to see it around $8,100-8,500.
As for the medium-term forecast, 80% of experts believe that the pair will meet the onset of 2020 in the $10,500-11,000 zone.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  #379  
Old 10-11-2019, 06:45
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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 11 – 15, 2019


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. On Thursday, November 07, the US markets updated historical highs after reports of the US and China willingness to remove duties as new parts of the Trade Treaty are being signed. Speculators have turned their backs on traditional safe havens such as bonds, yen and gold. The European currency has also become cheaper against the dollar: investors expect the US macroeconomic indicators to improve after the US-China trade war ends. And although it is still a long way to signing a full-fledged agreement, analysts believe that Donald Trump will no longer make any sudden moves ahead of the upcoming US presidential election.
Last week 40% of experts, supported by graphical analysis, voted for the reduction of the Euro. 10% of the oscillators pointed that the European currency was overbought, which is a strong signal for the trend to change. In the case of a breakdown of the lower border of the side channel 1.1075-1.1175, the bearish scenario provided for a decrease of the pair to support in the 1.1000 zone. This was what happened in reality: by the end of the week session, the pair was at 1.1016, and the final chord was set at 1.1020;

- GBP/USD. As expected, the Bank of England left the interest rate unchanged at 0.75%. But what analysts did not expect was that two of the nine members of the monetary policy Committee would vote to cut the rate to 0.50%. These two votes were enough for the pound to lose more than 70 points.
In general, as expected, the pound followed in the wake of the Euro. And if the EUR/USD pair lost about 150 points in five days, the British currency fell by 170 points, ending the week at 1.2780;

- USD/JPY. As mentioned above, the progress in the US-China talks reflected on the attractiveness of the yen as a safe-haven currency. As a result, the fall of the Japanese currency against the dollar at the maximum on Thursday 07 November amounted to 130 points. The pair met the end of the five-day period at the level of 109.22;

– cryptocurrencies. As for the news background, so strongly affecting the quotes of digital currencies, the past week was not particularly outstanding. Therefore, Bitcoin quietly moved along the consolidation line in the corridor $9,100-9,500 until Friday. However, November 08 brought disappointment to investors and traders who opened long positions. The reference cryptocurrency went down sharply and, having lost 6% of its value in a few hours, found a local bottom at the level of $8,680.
It is difficult to say unequivocally what was the reason for such a fall. Fans of technical analysis refer to the narrowing triangle on the 4-hour BTC/USD chart. The reason could be the news about another – the seventh this year – hacking of a cryptocurrency exchange. This time, hackers withdrew funds in 23 digital assets totaling about $500 thousand from the Vietnamese exchange VinDAX.
Speaking of digital assets. The past week is interesting because a number of top altcoins did not follow in the wake of the main cryptocurrency but demonstrated independent dynamics. Unlike Bitcoin, which went to the south, Ethereum (ETH/USD) completed the seven-day period in the same place where it began, and Litecoin (LTC/USD) put up by 5%.
Ripple was different. It should be noted that, despite the efforts of the management of Ripple, the clouds over this token continue to thicken. It "shrunk" by 90% in 2018-2019. The last week was no exception. The week volatility of the XRP/USD pair was about 14%, and it fell to the level of 0.2710 on Friday 07 November.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. In the coming week, we are expecting a lot of significant economic events. Among them the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell in the US Congress in the middle of the week should be noted. Also, the formation of local trends may be influenced by inflation data in the United States on Wednesday 13 November, the Eurozone GDP estimate on Thursday 14 November, and data on retail sales in the United States on Friday 15 November.
The rate of inflation in the United States should be seen with a special attention, because if inflation for October is much lower than the forecast, the Fed may decide on the fourth this year's interest rate cut next month.
And, of course, the market will listen carefully to the news about the progress of the US-China trade war. There are many chances that the optimism associated with the decision of the parties to phase out customs tariffs will continue this week. Investors are also expecting some positive news from US President Trump's meeting with Chinese President XI Jinping in December. That is why 65% of experts voted for the further strengthening of the dollar and the decline of the Euro to the zone 1.0940-1.0990. The further target is the minimum of October 01, 1.0880.
Graphical analysis and indicators show a rare unanimity with analysts: 90% of oscillators and 100% of indicators are colored red.
Only 20% of experts and 10% of oscillators expect the pair to grow, signaling it is oversold. The nearest resistance zone is 1.1075, then 1.1110 and 1.1180.
And finally, the remaining 15% of analysts talk about a sideways trend. Over the past four weeks, the pair has formed a double-headed top, and experts expect it to stay at its base for some time, moving in the range of 1.0990-1.1075;

- GBP/USD. The UK economy is experiencing constant difficulties because of the uncertainty due to Brexit. There was a decline in the construction industry by 1.3% in the 2nd quarter of this year and a drop in industrial production, caused, among other things, by the closure of several automobile plants. For this reason, data on UK GDP in the 3rd quarter, which will be known on Monday 11 November, can cause serious jumps in the British currency. According to the forecast, GDP growth could reach +0.3% against -0.2% in the previous quarter, which will push the pair up.
The main driver of the GBP/USD pair will remain the dollar. As in the case of the Euro, 65% of experts, graphical analysis on D1 and the vast majority of indicators are waiting for its strengthening and the fall of the pound. Supports are at 1.2700, 1.2650 and 1.2550 levels.
As for the remaining 35% of analysts, they believe that after reaching the lower limit of the three-week side channel 1.2770-1.3000, the pair will turn around and go north. 15% of oscillators on H4 and D1 agree with this as well, giving signals that the pair is oversold;

- USD/JPY. The situation with the Japanese currency is similar to the Euro and the pound. It is also under pressure from improving macroeconomic indicators of the United States and China after the signing of the "Peace Treaty".
On Thursday, November 14, data on Japan's GDP growth in the 3rd quarter will be released. Analysts are already predicting a slowdown in the Japanese economy. So the Japanese yen will have another reason to weaken in the short term, with which 65% of experts agree. The nearest resistance level is 109.50, then 110.00 and 110.70.
Only 10% of analysts have voted for the strengthening of the yen and the decline of the pair, and 25% believe that the pair will move sideways along the Pivot Point 109.00;

– cryptocurrencies. The Bitcoin Crypto Fear & Greed Index deviated from the average value and moved closer to the fear zone by the end of the week. According to the classical interpretation, this position is a reason to think about opening long positions. However, investors have recently become much more cautious and expect all sorts of traps from sharp price spikes.
60% of experts remain pessimistic as well. So, according to Bloomberg analysts, the first cryptocurrency has a chance to fall to the level of $8,000 before the end of the year. The growth of the BTC/USD pair, as already mentioned, will be hampered by sales due to fears of "burning". However, despite this, 40% of experts believe that bitcoin will still be able to meet the onset of 2020 in the $10,500-11,000 zone.
For those who do not want to be nervous, daily watching the schedule of quotations, here is a piece of advice from the Director of the American bitcoin exchanger BitInstant Charlie Shrem. In his opinion, "the best way to invest in bitcoin is to hide 5 to 10 BTC in a cold wallet, and in such a way that you yourself can not access them for 20 years." "I do believe," he said, " that in 20 years 5-10 Bitcoins will be the money that will change your life for the better. Bitcoin will survive even a nuclear disaster, while banks and paper money will literally burn."


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  #380  
Old 18-11-2019, 07:09
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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 18 – 22, 2019


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. President Trump is plannng to be re-elected for a second term thanks to the strong growth of American GDP. Major US indices continue to storm historical highs. Futures on the S&P500 rose above 3100. The wave of purchases in the markets was spurred by the optimistic statement of the White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow about the imminent conclusion of a trade deal with China. At the same time, the Financial Times reports that, in fact, the White House is not happy that China is stalling and not offering significant concessions in response to the abolition of tariffs. And Trump himself does not want to cancel them completely.
Speaking in Congress, the Fed Chairman Jerome Powellpraises the US economy, calling it a "star", but at the same time, citing many factors, including inflation and trade wars, does not rule out another interest rate cut. As a result, his words, together with the encouraging GDP of Germany, stopped the downward trend of the EUR/USD pair at the support of 1.0990 and pushed the European currency up, allowing it to finish the week with a small plus of 35 points;

- GBP/USD. The UK is preparing for early parliamentary elections. Therefore, there is no special news directly related to Brexit. And in this situation, the market begins to react actively to macroeconomic indicators. Thus, data on UK GDP in the 3rd quarter became known on Monday, November 11. As we predicted, the GDP growth was +0.3% against -0.2% in the previous quarter, which pushed the pair up more than 110 points to 1.2900. Then, until Thursday, the dollar tried to play back losses. But at the end of the week, thanks to the head of the Federal reserve Jerome Powell, the bulls took the initiative in their hands once again, and the pair ended the week near the landmark level of 1.2900;

- USD/JPY. The more or less stable demand for the yen remained almost until the end of Thursday 14 November. The market hardly reacted even to the really weak GDP figures of Japan in the 3rd quarter (+0.1% compared to +0.4% in the previous quarter). All this allowed the Japanese currency to gain 100 points since the beginning of the week, reaching the critical point of contact with the MA-200 on the four-hour chart, which investors often use as a trend indicator. But the breakdown of the support and the reversal of the trend did not happen: thanks to the optimistic statements of Larry Kudlow about the course of the US-Chinese negotiations, the demand for protective assets fell, and the pair went north again, ending the trading session at 108.80 yen per 1 dollar;

– cryptocurrencies. The forecast, which was supported last week by the majority of experts (60%), can be reduced to just two words: "caution" and "pessimism". It is in line with these two concepts that the benchmark currency follows, gradually declining since the end of October. As a result, the pair reached the local bottom at $8,420 on the evening of November 15, returning to the boundaries of the side channel of $7,800-8,600, in which it moved from September 26 to October 22.
The pair was below the 200-day moving average for the whole last week, and it broke through the support in the form of a 50-day average as well by the end of the week, which also did not contribute to the growth of bullish optimism.
Top altcoins generally followed the bitcoin, repeating its poor performance. Ripple (XRP/USD) was not assisted by the large-scale support company deployed by bloggers and media, nor by its inclusion in The Coinbase debit card payment list. Ripple shrank another 8% during the week, reaching a low of $0.2528
Ethereum (ETH/USD) is struggling to keep from breaking the lower border of the three-week side channel of $175-195. Holders of this coin are constantly warmed by the idea that, thanks to POS-mining (proof of ownership), it may be recognized as a security in the future, which will cause an explosive growth in quotations.
Litecoin (LTC/USD) also found support near the bottom of the three-week corridor of $57-64. This level can be considered as a medium-term Pivot Point, around which the pair rotates starting from September 25.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. As mentioned above, thanks to the statement of the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell and encouraging data on German GDP, the bears failed to break through the support at the level of 1.1000. After the GDP growth from -0.2% to +0.1%, representatives of the German government believe that the introduction of additional incentives to support the economy in the near future will not be required. Consumer demand together with government spending will be able to neutralize the problems of industry and exports.
It should be noted here that many macroeconomic indicators of the EU countries have recently turned out to be higher than forecast. However, uncertainty in the markets persists, and the preponderance of supporters of bulls over bears is now only 10%. 55% of experts voted for the growth of the Euro against 45%, who are convinced of the dollar strength. At the same time, both set modest goals for the pair. The goal of the bulls is its return in the corridor 1.1075-1.1175. The goal for the bears is a breakout of the 1.1000 support and transition to the 1.0940-1.1000 zone. Reaching the low of October 01, 1.0884, seems unlikely this week.
90% of oscillators and 80% of trend indicators on H4 side with the bulls. On D1, the picture is the opposite¬: 85% of oscillators and 75% of trend indicators are colored red. Graphical analysis on both H4 and D1 is also on the side of the bears and indicates a fall of the pair at least to the horizon of 1.0965.
As for significant events that can affect the formation of trends and cause increased volatility next week, we are looking at the meeting of the US Federal Reserve and the ECB on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, as well as the speech of the new head of the ECB Christine Lagarde and data on business activity in the EU and Germany on Friday 22 November;

- GBP/USD. Against the backdrop of the Brexit respite, it is difficult to say what markets reaction will be caused by the hearing of the inflation report in the UK on Wednesday 20 November. But as the conservatives build their election program with an emphasis, among other, on the weakening of the country's economy, one can expect a number of loud statements from them.
In the meantime, 60% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, expect a reversal of the uptrend and the return of the pair to the November 08 low, 1.2765, and then its fall by another 100 points. The opposite position is taken by 40% of analysts in agreement with 100% of trend indicators and 90% of oscillators on H4 and D1. (The remaining 10% of the oscillators signal the pound is overbought). The nearest resistance levels are 1.2975 and 1.3015. The target is the height of 1.3100;

- USD/JPY. The yen has been falling for almost all autumn, and the pair moves up, relying on the MA200, which is clearly visible on the H4 chart. At least four attempts to break through this support ended in failure. And how the fifth attempt will end depends directly on the macroeconomic indicators of the United States and China, and the prospects of signing a "Peace Treaty" between them.
The White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow's optimism about an imminent trade deal with China in the coming week could be quickly negated by both his boss, President Trump, and representatives of the Chinese government. So, it is quite possible that the pair will be able to reverse the uptrend and, at least, move to a sideways movement.
Experts' opinions are currently divided 50-50. The situation is similar with the indicators. Therefore, we can assume that the pair is expected to move sideways along the Pivot Point 108.75 in the corridor with the boundaries of 107.80-109.50 for some time. The next support is in the area of 107.00, resistance –110.30;

– cryptocurrencies. If you look at what has happened to bitcoin in 10 years, everything seems to be fine: it has risen in price 100 times during this time. But it does not want to continue to grow. Those who were going to purchase this cryptocurrency as a long-term investment have already done so. And now the market belongs to short-term speculators, who play not only on the rise, but also on the fall. The mantra of such apologists as co-founder of the oldest Chinese crypto exchange BTCC Bobby Lee, that the price of bitcoin will rise to $500 thousand by 2028, does not affect them. The speculators are focused on quick profits, which can only be obtained thanks to the increased volatility of cryptocurrencies and the news that creates this volatility.
Halving of Bitcoin in 2020 will become such a piece of news. In the near future, it will be the hard fork Istanbul, which the creators of Ethereum are going to hold on December 4, 2019. Another piece of news is the launch of regulated bitcoin options on Bakkt, which is also scheduled for early December. These and similar events can cause sharp one-time jumps in quotations.
In our previous review we wrote that, according to Bloomberg analysts, the first cryptocurrency has a chance to fall to the level of $8,000 before the end of the year. The height of $12,000 is called as a possible high. As for the high of the year 2020, it is at $16,000. A similar opinion with his colleagues from Bloomberg was previously expressed by the head of the Binance crypto exchange, Changpeng Zhao. According to him, traders and investors in China can ensure the growth of the reference coin at least to such a height.
But this can be prevented by one event. A sensational statement was made by Jack Lee, founder and managing partner of HCM Capital. He believes that the People's Bank of China will issue its own digital currency in two to three months. And it is this currency that investors from China can switch their attention and capitals to.
As for the forecast for the very near future, since the BTC/USD pair has fallen to the boundaries of the side channel of $7,800-8,600, three scenarios are possible here. The first is bearish, according to which the pair will continue to move to the lower border of the channel. 25% of experts vote for it. The same number support the second, bullish, scenario. When it is implemented, the upper limit of the channel $8,600 will act as a support, starting from which the pair will go up. The nearest resistance is $8,815, the next ones are $9,130 and $9,470. And finally, the third scenario. According to it, the $8,600 level will act as a Pivot Point along which the pair will move to the east. This development is supported by the majority of analysts, 50%.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  #381  
Old 20-11-2019, 09:44
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  #382  
Old 25-11-2019, 08:07
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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 25 – 29, 2019


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. Recall that the previous forecast focused on the uncertainty that has been reigning in the markets recently. At that time, the preponderance of the bulls' supporters over the bears was only 10%. 55% of experts voted for the growth of the European currency, against were 45%. As if responding to such a balance of forces, the pair grew slightly on Monday, November 11 and, reaching the level of 1.0900, moved into a sideways trend. It stayed there until Friday, when, due to weak European statistics (PMI) and the speech of the new Head of the ECB Christine Lagarde, it went down sharply. However, it could not break through the support of 1.1000 and ended the five-day period at 1.1020.
Ms. Lagarde added more fog and uncertainty to the markets, saying that Europe needed a new system of economic measures and that the European regulator would soon review its strategy. But what this new strategy will be is completely unclear, especially recalling that there is discord in the ECB Governing Council and there is no consensus on the resumption of quantitative easing (QE);

- GBP/USD. The UK is preparing for early parliamentary elections, on which both the situation with Brexit and the further economic situation in the country depend. There is no clarity for now, as in the case of the Euro. Therefore, both bulls and bears are looking for reasons to push the pair in one or another direction, in the economic news.
If we sum up the results of the past week, the victory has remained for the bears. Taking advantage of the fact that the preliminary PMI business activity index in the services sector fell below the critical level of 50.0 and amounted to 48.6, they pushed the pair down to the level of 1.2822. The final chord of the week was made at the level of 1.2835;

- USD/JPY. As already noted, the yen has been falling for almost all autumn, and the pair has been moving up, relying on the MA200 on the four-hour timeframe. At least four attempts to break through this support have ended in failure. And how the fifth attempt will end, we wrote last week, depends largely on the prospects of signing a trade agreement between the US and China. However, despite a lot of optimistic statements, there are no specific results yet. American negotiators seem to be ready for the meeting but are waiting for assurances from the Chinese side that Beijing is ready to commit to the protection of intellectual property and technology, as well as the purchase of agricultural products from the United States. Whether China will do it, and in what form, is a question. And so the fifth attempt to break through the МА200 undertaken in the middle of last week, failed as well. Having fallen to the level of 108.27, the pair turned around and finished the week session slightly above the specified moving average, at the level of 108.63;

– cryptocurrencies. The main "forecast", which most often sounds recently, can be reduced to only two words: "caution" and "pessimism". We hope that traders and investors followed our first advice, because the second one has once again justified itself completely: at the low on Friday November 22, Bitcoin lost almost 20%, falling from $8,500 to $6,820. The reason for such a bearish rally, according to many experts, were miners who began an active sale of their crypto assets. Some of them needed fiat to stay afloat and continue to work, and some, disappointed, just decided to leave the market.
An additional impetus to the sales was given by rumors from Chinese Shanghai about the visit of the police to the office of the Binance crypto exchange.
Top altcoins, such as Ripple (XRP/USD), Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Litecoin (LTC/USD), amicably followed the "big brother", Bitcoin. As a result, the total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 15.8%, from $239 billion to $201 billion.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States has risen again. The GDP growth in the fourth quarter is still not even up to 0.5%. All this makes investors think about the onset of a recession in the American economy. Next week we are waiting for the next batch of macroeconomic indicators from the United States, which will either confirm or refute the version about the possible next reduction of the Federal Reserve interest rate in January-February. Moreover, such a reduction may not be "traditional" 0.25%, but twice as much, 0.5%.
Of course, this largely depends on the final results of the fourth quarter and 2019 as a whole. But do not forget that 2020 is the year of the US Presidential election, and the state of the American economy depends on whether Trump will remain in the White House for a second term. For now, under his pressure, the Fed is implementing easing policies step by step and pumping the economy with dollars. A similar situation was in the early 2000s. Then, by lowering the rates, the Fed tried to raise production, and it resulted in a bubble of mortgage lending, which burst, leading to the crisis of 2007-2008.
At the moment, the vast majority of indicators are colored red. But in the situation of uncertainty described above, experts do not expect that the pair will still be able to break through the support of 1.1000. Graphical analysis on H4 and D1 also indicates that after one or two unsuccessful attempts to do this, the pair will turn around and go up: first to the resistance of 1.1090, and then even higher, up to the horizon of 1.1175.
Of course, the results of the next round of the US-Chinese trade talks, which Beijing wants to hold before November 28, Thanksgiving In the US, can greatly affect the quotes. 65% of analysts expect that a certain consensus will be reached on this issue by the end of the year, which will lead to the growth of the dollar and the decline of the EUR/USD pair to the zone 1.0800-1.0900;

- GBP/USD. In anticipation of the parliamentary elections in the UK on December 12 and a Brexit respite, the pair has been moving in the side channel 1.2780-1.2980 for the fifth week. Trend indicators and D1 oscillators are painted in neutral gray. The forecasts of experts can be called "gray" too (50% to 50%). The hearing of the Inflation Report on Wednesday November 27 is unlikely to push the pair beyond this channel. The situation in the coming week depends much more on the US than on the UK. And the clear progress in the US-China trade talks may give the pair a strong bearish impulse, lowering it to the support of 1.2650;

- USD/JPY. The Fed is pumping the markets with dollar liquidity. But the Bank of Japan has been doing the same for many years in an effort to increase inflation and revive production. At the same time, the interest rate set by the Japanese regulator for the yen is much lower than for the dollar. So the Japanese currency is of interest to investors only as a refuge from financial storms. However, according to the chart, there have been no particularly strong storms since the end of the summer, and therefore the yen is falling, and the curve of quotations is steadily creeping up.
Now there is a consolidation in the zone of 108.60 yen per dollar. But progress in signing a trade agreement between the US and China may push the pair further up ¬ – to the level of 109.50. It is this movement that most experts (65%) expect from it in the near future.
It should be noted that in the medium term, even more analysts (70%) are waiting for the pair to turn south and return to the 105.70-106.70 zone. And at most, these expectations are related to the deterioration of US economic indicators and further quantitative easing by the Fed;

– cryptocurrencies. At the time of writing this forecast, the BTC/USD pair is approximately where it was a month ago, before the "space" takeoff on October 25. Recall that the benchmark cryptocurrency reached $10,500 then, adding 40% at its highest point, due to the news that Chinese President Xi Jinping had supported the blockchain development.
If you look at the chart, it is very clear that, since June 26, Bitcoin has been moving in a downward channel. And if this movement continues, we can expect first a sideways movement along the horizon of $7,300, and then another collapse, now down to $5,000.
The main hope of investors which may be able to support the bitcoin exchange rate is the 2020 halving. According to some of them, after halving in 2020, the rate of this cryptocurrency can soar by 4000%. They cite the sharp jumps in the value of the main digital asset, which occurred after the last two cuts in rewards for miners, as an argument. After the first cut, it rose by 3420%. After the second – by 4080%.
At the moment, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index of bitcoin has fallen into the lower red quarter and is equal to 23, which corresponds to "extreme fear". According to the creators of the index, this indicator can mean that the market is in a strong panic, and it is probable that the growth will begin soon. After all, large speculators who bought coins, playing for a decrease to earn, must at some point start the game to increase. This, in fact, is the logic of the market.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  #383  
Old 30-11-2019, 15:58
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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for December 02 - 06, 2019


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. it looks like the thanksgiving celebration in the US started not in Thursday 28 November, but as early as on Monday 25. The last week of autumn was unusually calm, and the volatility did not exceed 40 points until Friday, driving traders into hibernation. Positive data on GDP and production in the US were balanced by the growth of the consumer price index (CPI) in the Eurozone. And even the controversial law on support for democracy and human rights in Hong Kong, signed by President Trump on Thursday, coupled with a sharp reaction to it from Beijing, made little impression on the markets.
Recall that our previous forecast said that in the current situation, the pair will not be able to break through the support of 1.1000 and after one or two unsuccessful attempts, it will turn around and go up. That's exactly what happened. Even the breakthrough at the end of the week to the level of 1.0980 was unsuccessful, and the pair soon returned to where it started the five-day period, to the zone of 1.1015-1.1020;

- GBP/USD. In anticipation of the parliamentary elections in the UK, since the last decade of October, the pair is moving in the side channel 1.2780-1.2980. Thanksgiving in the United States only narrowed this channel to the interval 1.2825-1.2950, and the final chord of the week sounded at 1.2935;

- USD/JPY. The majority of experts (65%) expect that the pair will reach the height of 109.50 within the week. This forecast was justified by 100%. And even China's threats against the United States because of support for protesters in Hong Kong did not prevent the growth of the dollar. Threats remain threats, but the trade agreement must be signed. As a result, the pair rose to the level of 109.66 by Friday evening, and ended the trading session at the level of 109.44;

– cryptocurrencies. This is the market that, unlike Forex, never sleeps. And first a few words about the news background, statements and actions of financial mega-regulators. So representatives of the European Central Bank did not rule out the release of their own tokens. Even ECB Board Member Benoit Coeure, who previously called bitcoin "an evil creation of the financial crisis of 2008", supported the idea of "crypto-Euro" . South Korea went as far as to recognize cryptocurrencies, adopting a bill to regulate virtual assets. But the Central Bank of Russia has once again shown its negative attitude to alternative financial products, agreeing with the proposal to ban all payments with bitcoin and other coins.
But, of course, the strongest impact on the market this fall was the news from China. Recall that the regulator of Shanghai has recently decided to liquidate companies engaged in cryptocurrency trading, and the regulator of Beijing declared the illegality of exchange operations with cryptocurrencies. The mega-regulator, the people's Bank of China, announced its position on Friday, November 22, ordering all companies to eliminate any improper practices of working with crypto assets. Representatives of such an influential force as the Communist Party of China also support a complete ban on digital currencies. As a result, investments in bitcoin in China decreased by more than 15% at the end of November.
In general the cryptocurrency market has "shrunk" by more than $20 billion over the past week, which is almost 10% of its volume. But, despite this, the week, in general, can be called successful for bitcoin. Having found a six-month bottom at $6,585 on Monday, November 25, the benchmark cryptocurrency bounced back up, resting on a strong level of $7,800. In the period from September 26 to October 22, it made a strong support for the BTC/USD pair. And now there are a lot of chances to turn into an equally strong resistance.
Quotes of top altcoins, such as Ripple (XRP/USD), Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Litecoin (LTC/USD), generally repeated the movements of the "big brother". However, if compared to Friday, November 22, Bitcoin grew by about 5%, altcoins were only able to win back losses, returning to their original positions.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. We would like to hope that with the onset of winter, both bears and bulls will not finally go into hibernation. Moreover, these days we are waiting for a number of quite important events. This is the speech of the new head of the ECB Christine Lagarde and the publication of the US business activity data (ISM) in the first half of the week, Eurozone GDP data on Thursday, and the US labor market (including NFP) on Friday.
According to forecasts, such an important indicator as the number of new jobs created outside agriculture (Non-Farm Payrolls, NFP), can grow in the US by more than 40% (from 128K to 183K). Which may still lead to a breakdown of support 1.1000. At the moment, 65% of experts agree that the pair will be able to fall to the 1.0880-1.0925 zone, supported by 95% of oscillators and trend indicators on D1. There is another support on the way of the pair to the south: 1.0940.
The opposite view is shared by only 35% of analysts and graphical analysis on H4 and D1. In their opinion, the pair will go north starting from the support of 1.0980-1.1000. The targets are 1.1100 and 1.1175;

- GBP/USD. The results of the parliamentary elections, and, accordingly, the future of Brexit, will be known only in a week and a half, after December 12. For now, investors are focused on the statements of politicians and, for a small part, on the macroeconomic indicators of the UK, the EU and the US. From above, the pound is pressured by the decline in the yield of 10-year UK government bonds in relation to similar securities of its "competitors". From below, due to the correlation of the British currency with "black gold", it is pushed up by an upward trend in the oil market. And here it should be borne in mind that the OPEC+ summit next week may well extend the limit on carbon production, which will lead to a shortage of oil and an increase in its cost, especially in the III and IV quarters of 2020. In general, in everything that concerns the pound, there is a complete uncertainty so far.
Experts' forecasts look similar: 40% are for the growth of this currency, 40% are for its fall, and 20% just shrug. So, we can assume that the GBP/USD pair will continue to move in a sideways channel until the parliamentary elections, consolidating in the Pivot Point zone of 1.2900;

- USD/JPY. Most investors considered the differences between the US and China concerning human rights in Hong Kong unimportant. In their opinion, a trade deal will sooner or later be concluded, which will lead to a rise in the dollar, including the rise against the yen. The growth of the US stock market and the SP500 index, according to 85% of experts, will push the USD/JPY pair up to the landmark level of 110.00 already now (taking into account the slippage-110.25). However, the pair can then turn to the south and return first to the intersection of the horizontal support and the lower border of the ascending channel around 109.00. And then go down and even lower: the next support levels are 108.50 and 107.80. This scenario is fully supported by graphical analysis on H4 and 15% of oscillators on D1, according to which the pair is already in the overbought zone;

– cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin is still within the downward channel, which began on June 26. Some experts call the rebound that occurred last week a "dead cat jump", believing that we will soon see another collapse of the BTC/USD pair, now to the level of $5,000. However, according to most analysts, the pair will stay within the side corridor of $7,000-8,000 for some time.
About 40% of experts remain optimistic and hopeful that the upper limit of this corridor will be broken. At the same time, for example, the famous financial analyst Joseph Young, although confident in the long-term growth of the cryptocurrency market, does not exclude the fall of Bitcoin to $3000-4000. Martin McDonagh, co-founder of investment firm KR1, has expressed a similar opinion. "Now, swinging like a pendulum, the market tries to know where the bottom is once again", he says. "I think we are in the early stages of a bull market and we will soon see rising highs on the way to new heights," he predicts.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  #384  
Old 03-12-2019, 08:42
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Philippine Traders Prefer NordFX


"We only trade with NordFX!"- this motto was supported by hundreds of beginners and experienced traders who took part in a series of seminars that were held in Eastern Mindanao, Philippines.

The seminars, which aimed to learn trading in the currency and crypto-currency markets, were held in cities such as Davao, Tagum, Panabo and General Santos, bringing together from several dozen to several hundred participants. In addition to the well-known, with well-deserved popularity, trading tools and services of NordFX, the new products of this broker were presented to the audience, such as, for example, CFD contracts and investment funds, which included the shares of the world's leading and most profitable companies.

"Manila, Bukidnon, Cavite, Baguio, Laguna, Batangas, Cebu are just some of the places where seminars are also held and will be held," the organizers say. "Our task is not just to acquaint the Forex community of the Philippines with the opportunities and advantages offered by the brokerage company NordFX. The main thing is that the participants of the seminars get the knowledge that will make their trade more successful and profitable."


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  #385  
Old 07-12-2019, 15:01
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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for December 09 - 13, 2019


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The Euro rose sharply on Monday. This is not to say that no one expected it. 35% of analysts and graphical analysis on H4 and D1 predicted the pair's rise to the height of 1.1100. Some may have decided that the growth is associated with the performance of the new head of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde. But it is unlikely that this version is correct, since the words of this high-ranking official for the most part did not concern the prospects of monetary policy but were devoted to the prospects of the emergence of the crypto-Euro. Although, the jet of fresh air in the work of the mega-regulator could for sure contribute to the strengthening of the European currency.
The publication of business activity indices in the manufacturing sectors of Germany and the European Union, which showed a small increase, also added to the positive mood. But as for macroeconomic statistics from the United States, it did not make investors happy: ISM business activity indices in the manufacturing sector and the services sector showed a decrease. As a result, at its high, the Euro rose to 1.1116.
The end of the week was without surprises. As expected, such an important indicator as the number of new jobs created in the US outside of agriculture (Non-Farm Payrolls, NFP), increased by more than 70%. And the markets immediately reacted by strengthening the dollar by 60 points. Then there was a slight rebound up, and the pair froze at 1.1060;

- GBP/USD. It would seem that everything was supposed to freeze in anticipation of the parliamentary elections scheduled for Thursday, December 12. After all, the future of Brexit and the UK in general depend on them. But the British currency was climbing steadily all week, buoyed by predictions of an election outcome, weak macroeconomic statistics from the US and the progress of the OPEC + summit. The British currency is strongly correlated with the "black gold", and the decision of oil-producing countries to remove from the market, starting from January 01, 1.7 million barrels per day, also supported the pound. The GBP/USD pair put the final chord of the week at 1.3132, adding more than 215 points in five days;

- USD/JPY. According to the previous week's scenario, the pair should have turned south, reaching the height of 110.00. However, it did it, remaining some 25 points away from this landmark point. And then everything happened exactly according to the forecast: a fall to the support of 109.00, then a pause, and a decline to the next support in the zone of 108.50. Not far from it, at the level of 108.55, the pair met the end of the trading session;

– cryptocurrencies. Twitter brought an unexpected piece of news. Rather, it was brought by the CEO of this social network Jack Dorsey, who said that the future of the cryptocurrency industry will be determined by... Africa. Why? Just because Africa... is very poor, and this will be one of the main reasons for the adoption of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies by the countries of this continent.
There may be some logic to this, but for now, what happens in the digital market is determined by the US, Europe and China. Last week, Europe distinguished itself. It turned out that the European mega-regulator is actively exploring the possibility of launching an official digital Euro. "Our goal," said the new head of the ECB Christine Lagarde at a hearing in the European Parliament, " is to create an innovative, reliable and integrated payment system in Europe. This will benefit everyone in the Euro area and significantly strengthen the Euro's position in the world." But then she added that it is necessary to assess all risks from such a step and weigh all the "pros" and "cons" very carefully.
As for the forecast for the past week, it was absolutely correct on the whole. Recall that, according to most analysts, the pair BTC/USD was in for a sideways trend in the range of $7,000-8,000. At the same time, 40% of experts did not rule out attempts to break the upper limit of this channel.
In reality, everything happened like that. Starting near its upper limit, the pair went down to the level of $7,095. Then, there was a sharp upswing on Wednesday 04 December, but the efforts of the bulls were only enough to lift Bitcoin to the horizon of $7,865. This was followed by a sharp reversal, a fall to $7,110, and then a return to the central zone of the channel, accompanied by a decrease in volatility to the range of $7,330-7,465.
Quotes of top altcoins, such as Ripple (XRP/USD), Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Litecoin (LTC/USD), generally repeated the movements of the "big brother". And despite the fact that they were in the green zone at the end of the working week, the result of seven days can be characterized as moderately negative. Thus, Ripple lost about 3.5% in price, Ethereum lost 5%, and the cost of Litecoin decreased by 9%.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The USA and Europe expect three important events during the coming week, these are: the decision on interest rates by the Fed on Wednesday 11 December and the ECB on Thursday 12 December, as well as the scheduled elections to the UK Parliament on Thursday. And if the Fed and the ECB are likely to leave rates at the same level for now, some surprises can be expected from the elections in the United Kingdom. The results of the exit polls will be known late on Thursday, Central European time, and the final results of the elections will be known on Friday the 13th. Then we should expect a strong reaction of the markets.
Despite the fact that Friday the 13th enjoys a bad reputation among superstitious people, the forecasts of experts are not so pessimistic. 65% of them, supported by graphical analysis on D1, vote for the growth of the pair to the resistance of 1.1100, and in case the opponents of a hard Brexit win the elections in the UK, the pair can easily reach the height of 1.1175.
As for the forecasts until the end of December, most analysts believe that the pair will move along the Pivot Point 1.1000, making fluctuations in the range 1.0900-1.1100;

- GBP/USD. As mentioned above, the near future of the pound will be decided on December 12. In the meantime, the experts can only shrug. For those who prefer charts and candlestick patterns to fundamental analysis, let's say that the graphical analysis on D1 draws the pair's growth first to the resistance zone of 1.3175, then to 1.3370, and the New Year at the height of 1.3500. 100% of trend indicators and 85% of D1 oscillators support this forecast. The remaining 15% signals that the pair is overbought, which indicates a possible reversal of the trend down;

- USD/JPY. The pair is now within a strong support/resistance zone, clearly visible since April 2017. We can also talk about the sideway with the support at 108.25, which has started this fall.
Most experts (65%) believe that, despite all efforts, the pair will not be able to break through this support in the near future and therefore will move within the side corridor, which started last October. In their opinion, if we see weak enough macroeconomic indicators in Europe and Latin America, investors' attraction to the dollar as a safe-haven currency will increase. And given the difference in interest rates, the dollar will become much more attractive than the yen, which will move the pair up. The nearest resistance is 109.00, the next is 109.30, the target is 109.75.
Of course, the quotes of this pair can also be influenced by the course of the US-Chinese trade negotiations, and the results of the parliamentary elections in the UK. Therefore, a bearish scenario is not excluded, according to which the pair will rush to the minimum on October 03, 106.50. Intermediate supports are in the 107.90, 107.50 and 107.00 zones. 35% of analysts vote for this development, as well as 70% of indicators on D1;

– cryptocurrencies. The most important event of the coming week should be the launch of bitcoin settlement futures on the Bakkt platform on December 09. And it is not for sure that this will help Bitcoin. There is an opinion that this platform is a" hand" of the US Government, able to strangle the crypto market at the right time or, conversely, give it a breath. This version is confirmed by the fact that Bakkt CEO Kelly Loeffler is already sitting in Washington as a Senator from Georgia.
The pressure of regulators on the digital market and the desire to take it under control does not contribute to the growth of quotations of cryptocurrencies. And the threat of instant large losses simply scares away large investors. According to Bloomberg, this led to the closure of 70 cryptocurrency hedge funds in 2019. The number of newly created crypto-funds has also decreased twice compared to the previous year. So, the predictions of bitcoin apologists that this cryptocurrency will rise again to heights in the region of $20,000 by the end of the year are unlikely to come true.
However, according to Ceteris Paribus experts, almost 600 thousand BTC coins (worth about $5 billion) remain without movement over the past year and a half. This speaks to the hopes of private investors for the rise of Bitcoin. The reason for this may be Halving-2020. According to some "crypto gurus", the Bitcoin rate can jump by 4000% as a result of this halving. They cite the sharp jumps in the value of the main digital asset, which occurred after the last two cuts in rewards for miners, as an argument. After the first cut, it rose by 3420%. After the second – by 4080%. However, what happened to the Litecoin, halving of which took place at the end of the summer of 2019, shows that such rosy expectations may be in vain. The LTC quotes indeed began to grow on the eve of this event, but nothing happened on the halving day, and then the LTC/USD pair simply fell down.
Returning to Bitcoin, let's say that the forecasts of most experts for December do not portend the BTC/USD pair anything good. 65% of them see it in the $6,000-6,600 zone. However, once again, a lot depends on how the opening trades on Bakkt are going on. For now, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is still in its lower third, at 29, which corresponds to the moderate fear of investors.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  #386  
Old 16-12-2019, 06:17
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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for December 16 - 20, 2019


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. As expected, both the Fed and the ECB have left their interest rates unchanged. Accordingly, the reaction of the markets to their decisions was almost zero. President Donald Trump and the new head of the ECB Christine Lagarde were on the side of the dollar last week.
The US President told his followers that "we (i.e. the US) are close to concluding a major deal with China. They want it, just like we do! » That is, if earlier President Trump said that the trade treaty is needed only by Beijing, now it turned out that Washington is also interested in signing it.
Later, Bloomberg reported that Trump, in order to prevent a tariff increase on December 15, has already signed an interim agreement, which, in addition to the rejection of new duties, provides for a reduction in existing tariff rates on many types of Chinese imports as well.
The second driver for the dollar was Christine Lagarde, who reported that the ECB, although it made some adjustments to the forecasts for GDP and inflation for 2020, has in general left in force the current parameters of its monetary policy.
Thanks to these two leaders, the results of the week could be very disastrous for the European currency, if not for the results of the parliamentary elections in the UK. The victory of the Conservative party pushed the pound sharply up, and in turn, it pulled the Euro up. As a result, at the maximum, the EUR/USD pair rose to the level of a strong medium-term support-resistance zone at around 1.1200. However, then the balance of powers was almost restored, and the pair finished at 1.1116;

- GBP/USD. Naturally, following the results of the elections, the gap was demonstrated by not only the Euro, but also, first of all, by the pound. The conservative party led by the current British Prime Minister Boris Johnson won a steady majority of seats in Parliament, which gave hope that the years of confusion with Brexit will finally end, and on January 31, 2020, the process of Britain's exit from the EU will start.
Such an outcome of the election, in general, had been taken into account by the market. Therefore, after the GBP/USD pair soared by almost 500 points and rose above the level of 1.3500, many players began to close long positions, which was facilitated by the above-mentioned steps of President Trump. As a result, by the end of the trading session, the British currency lost almost 180 points, stopping the fall at 1.3340;

- USD/JPY. While the European and British currencies rose against the dollar, the yen, on the contrary, lost ground. Recall that the majority of experts last week voted for the growth of the pair to the height of 109.75, and this forecast was 100% accurate.
The US and China are almost close to signing a trade agreement, and the US stock market on Thursday 12 December updated the historical high. Investors' interest has once again turned to such risky assets as, for example, stock index futures, causing a sell-off of the Japanese currency, which was losing about 130 points at the maximum. The final chord of the week was made at the level of 109.35;

– cryptocurrencies. By the end of last week, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index was still in its lower third, at 29, which corresponded to the moderate fear of investors. That's how the market behaved: moderate purchases with more active sales. The BTC/USD pair moved in the range of $7,100-7,700 all week with some superiority of bears, which gradually pressed it to the lower border of this channel. In seven days, Bitcoin lost about 4.5%. Similar dynamics were demonstrated by top altcoins, such as Ripple (XRP/USD), Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Litecoin (LTC/USD), which generally repeated the movements of the reference cryptocurrency.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. At first glance, there are a lot of important events ahead of us in the coming week. This is the publication of the PMI Markit of Germany and the EU on Monday 16 December, and the speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde on Wednesday, and the publication of the annual data on U.S. GDP on Friday 20 December. However, it is hardly worth waiting for a repeat of the rate hikes, such as those that were caused by the last week's elections in the UK. Some of the experts believe that the pair will be pressured by the success in the US-China trade talks. Others, on the contrary, expect that the pair will continue to move upward for some time by inertia.
It should be noted that 85% of oscillators and trend indicators on D1 are still painted green. 85% of experts are also waiting for the pair to continue growing in the near future. However, this growth, in their opinion, will be insignificant. The pair will try to break through the resistance of 1.1200 again and, taking into account the backlash, it may rise to the zone of 1.1225-1.1235. The next resistance is 1.1255. However, then it will face a trend reversal and return to the 1.1000-1.1100 zone. The implementation of this scenario can take one to three weeks, and 65% of analysts and graphical analysis on D1 fully agree with this;

- GBP/USD. Over the next five days, the UK's macroeconomic statistics will pour down on us like a cornucopia. On Monday¬, it is Markit Services PMI, on Tuesday it is ILO unemployment rate, on Wednesday - the consumer prices index, on Thursday - the Bank of England interest rate decision and the monetary policy report, on Friday it is the GDP data for the third quarter. That is, there isn't a day without news. But most importantly, the market will wait with bated breath for what Prime Minister Boris Johnson will say and do regarding the launch of the Brexit process. Recall that he still has until January 31, 2020 to ratify the agreement with the European Union in Parliament.
In the meantime, the experts' forecast for the pound looks about the same as for the Euro. Most of them (65%), supported by 90% of indicators on D1, believe that the pair will once again rush to storm the height of 1.3500, which it reached on the night of Thursday 12 December to Friday the 13th. However, it is only 25% believe in the success of such a storm. The remaining 75% of analysts, supported by graphical analysis, believe that we will soon see the GBP/USD pair in the 1.3100-1.3200 zone once again. And, in fact, why not? What good is awaiting the UK after leaving the EU? That's the question;

- USD/JPY. 75% of analysts believe that the progress in the US-China trade talks will continue to push the pair up. Additional support will be provided by the growth of the yield spread of 10-year US and Japanese government bonds on the debt market. 85% of oscillators, 95% of trend indicators and graphical analysis on D1 agree with this forecast. The nearest resistance is 109.70, the goal is to consolidate in the zone 110.00-111.00.
The remaining 25% of experts believe that the pair will not be able to go beyond the side corridor 108.40-109.70, where it will continue to move at least until the end of the year. A possible reversal of the trend and the return of the pair to the support of 108.40 is also indicated by 15% of oscillators that give clear signals about the pair being overbought. The next support is 108.25;

– cryptocurrencies. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is still in its lower third and is even down a quarter from the previous week, dropping to the 22 mark. In general, the current situation can be called stagnation. But the crypto market is famous for the fact that after a long lull, a sharp rise follows. Or a fall. After all, most traders come here to earn on the super-volatility of cryptocurrencies.
It does not matter for speculators whether the market is bullish or bearish at the moment. Thus, despite the price decline, the Bitcoin network has continued to expand recently and has now reached a record 28.4 million addresses. This is evidenced by the CoinMetrics data service. A similar dynamic was observed at the end of last year, when Bitcoin was trading at $3,200. At that time, many investors, taking advantage of the fall of the crypto currency, began to actively buy it.
According to the service glassnode, the number of wallets with a thousand or more bitcoins soared to a new high, their owners hope to make a profit, primarily as a result of the halving, which is scheduled for May 2020.
According to Morgan Creek Digital co-founder Anthony Pompliano, this event can multiply the price of Bitcoin, but its growth will be gradual. "I do not think that the price will soar the day after the halving, but I believe that, starting from the current values, it will rise to $100,000 by December 2021," the entrepreneur predicted.
Recall that as a result of the halving, the size of the reward in the bitcoin network will decrease twice, from 12.5 to 6.25 coins per block. But all this will happen in five months. If we talk about the forecast for the near future, 65% of experts expect the BTC/USD pair to decline to the $6,500-6,800 zone. According to the remaining 35% of experts, the pair will attempt to rise above the level of $8,000



Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  #387  
Old 17-12-2019, 13:35
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New Year's Eve Stocks-Surprise Gift from NordFX


December is the month of summing up the results of the year. But before doing so, NordFX decides to give its clients a New Year's surprise gift by expanding the range of trading instruments and introducing a new Stocks account designed for CFD trading with the shares of the world's largest companies.


At the moment, stocks of 68 companies, including IBM, JP Morgan Chase, Coca-Cola, Mastercard, McDonalds, Microsoft, Volkswagen, UBER, eBay, Alibaba, Deutsche Bank and many others, are offered for trading to traders and investors.

Trading is conducted on the well-known MetaTrader-4 platform. You can open both short and long positions on CFD contracts with a leverage of 1: 5. The total commission for a round-turn transaction is only 0.2%. It should be borne in mind that a long position held at dividend date receives the dividend amount, while a short position pays the dividend amount.

You can learn more about the trading instruments specifications, as well as open a Stocks account, at the NordFX website following the link http://nordfx.com/trading_account_stocks.html or through the Trader's Cabinet.


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  #388  
Old 22-12-2019, 12:32
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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for December 23 - 31, 2019


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. Starting on Monday from the level of 1.1110, the pair went up, as expected by most experts. The market did not react to the initiated impeachment of the US President Trump, and the S&P500 Index once again updated the historical maximum. However, the end of the year is the end of the year and the associated fall in volatility. Therefore, the pair failed to reach the target, the height of 1.1200, and recorded the maximum of the week at 1.1175.
Then everything happened again according to the scenario described by us in the previous forecast: the pair turned around and went south, braking at 1.1110. This was followed by several unsuccessful attempts to break through this support, then on Thursday 19 December there was a rebound up on the background of the weak economic statistics from the US, and then again, a return to the 1.1110 zone.
It should be noted that, in addition to the horizontal support, this level coincided with the lower limit of the uptrend, which began on November 29, which is why the bulls stood up for it so fiercely. But their strength was exhausted at the very end of the week, and the support was broken. According to experts, this was facilitated by the decline in quotations for a number of cross-pairs, the release of positive statistics on the US consumer market, as well as the narrowing of the yield spread on US and German government bonds. In addition, at the time of the breakdown, many stop orders placed on long positions worked, which allowed the pair to fall to the level of 1.1065. This was followed by a slight rebound, and it ended the week at 1.1075;

- GBP/USD. Last week was not the most successful for the British currency. The negative dynamics in the debt market, where the yield of UK securities fell in comparison with the bonds of the US and Germany, weighed on the pound. Statistics on the consumer market also disappointed investors: retail sales fell in November at the highest pace for the whole year, by 0.6%. Whatever Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his supporters say, British consumers fear Brexit and therefore limit themselves in spending. The Bank of England contributed to the overall gloomy picture as well by lowering its economic growth forecast.
As a result, the pound moved according to the scenario developed for it by experts for the whole week. Recall that the majority of analysts (65%), supported by 90% of indicators on D1, expected that the GBP/USD pair will once again rush to storm the height of 1.3500, and that this storm will end in collapse. Indeed, on Monday, December 16, the pound went up, but was able to overcome only 85 points, then turned around and continued the fall, which had begun on Friday, December 13.
75% of analysts, supported by graphical analysis, voted for this development. According to their forecast, the pair should have reached the 1.3100-1.3200 zone very quickly, which happened on Tuesday. But the fall did not end there, and it was only on Friday 20 December, thanks to positive GDP data for the third quarter (growth of 0.4% instead of the forecast 0.3%), that the pound was able to find support at the level of 1.2990.
This was followed by a rebound up to 1.3080, supported by the adoption of the Brexit Act by the UK Parliament, and again a drop of 100 points. The final chord sounded at the level of 1.3000;

- USD/JPY. The news background on the yen is quite diverse. There is a strong rise in the US Treasury yields, with which the Japanese currency is strongly correlated, and the continuation of the oil uptrend, and hopes for the imminent completion of a comprehensive deal between Washington and Beijing. It is necessary to pay attention to the inflation figures in Japan. At the end of November, it was at the level of 0.5%, that is, it grew by 0.3%, which is, though not powerful, but still a favorable signal for the Bank of Japan and the economy as a whole. The yen reacts as the weathervane to the multidirectional statistics on the state of the American economy as well.
As a result, the most accurate forecast was the one supported by a quarter of analysts, according to which the pair will remain in the side channel 108.40-109.70 until the end of the year. In reality, the channel was even narrower: 109.15-109.70, and the pair ended the trading session in its central zone, at the level of 109.45;

– cryptocurrencies. On Saturday, December 14, the benchmark cryptocurrency went south. More precisely, it did not just go, but flew headlong, updating the six-month low by Wednesday and "losing weight" by more than 11%. According to the main version, voiced by Bloomberg analysts, the fall was caused by the sale by crypto-pyramid PlusToken of bitcoins worth about $2 billion, followed by other coins. The total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 9% in just 5 days, and some analysts rushed to put a "death cross" on Bitcoin, giving such a name to the intersection by the 50-day moving average from top to bottom of the 200-day MA).
However, rumors about the death of Bitcoin, as it has repeatedly happened, were greatly exaggerated. On Wednesday evening, it became known that the Bakkt platform demonstrates record volumes of trading in BTC futures. And having found support at the level of $6,470, Bitcoin quickly began to make up for losses, just in a few hours getting $1000 (+15%). After that, the BTC/USD pair returned to where it all started, to the values of December 14.
As for such top altcoins as Ripple (XRP/USD), Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Litecoin (LTC/USD), in general, they followed in the wake of the reference cryptocurrency. It is just that the results of the seven-day trip were unprofitable for them. If Bitcoin fully recovered its losses, Ripple lost 12.5% of its value, Ethereum lost 11.5%, and Litecoin lost 10%. This result suggests that investors are getting rid of altcoins, redirecting financial flows towards the first cryptocurrency.


As for the forecast for the coming 10 days, perhaps we will not make a discovery, saying that Christmas and New Year holidays are ahead. In this regard:

- December 24 - Forex trading closes at 17: 00 CET
- December 25 - trading is closed
- December 26 - trading opens at 00: 00 CET
- December 31- trading closes at 17: 00 CET
- 01 January - trading is closed
- 02 January - trading opens at 00: 00 CET

- EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY. With a high probability we expect quite sluggish trading in a narrow range throughout this time. Although, due to the subtlety of the market, emissions in one direction or another are not excluded. Gaps can be expected at the opening of markets after the New Year holidays.
If we talk about the forecasts of experts for the upcoming ten-day period, it is impossible to give preference to either bulls or bears, because the opinions of experts are divided:
- either in half: 50% for the growth and 50% for the fall,
- or equally in three parts: a third for the growth, a third for the decline and a third for a sideways trend.
The forecasts of analytical departments of global banks for the entire year 2020 are much more interesting, we will publish them exactly one week later. Naturally, they are based on fundamental factors. And as for the fans of technical analysis, we have gathered together in one table the indicator readings on the daily (D1) and weekly (W1) timeframes, which, we hope, will help you form an opinion about the main trends and market sentiment.

– cryptocurrencies. Unlike Forex, the crypto market never sleeps. And even if crypto traders celebrate holidays, they do not take their eyes off the trading terminal.
In general, the news background is positive:
- Banking giant Bank of America Merrill Lynch has named the best and the worst assets by investment performance over the past ten years. According to the bank's calculations, $1 invested in the first cryptocurrency in 2010 has now turned into $90,026.
Sweden's Central Bank Riksbank is exploring the possibility of creating a digital Swedish Krona.
The success of Bakkt was mentioned above. And this is a very positive signal for the crypto market, as it suggests that institutional investors (at least some of them), consider the current situation a good one to buy.
- Analysts have given their forecasts of the Bitcoin price for the beginning of 2020. Executives of South Korean cryptocurrency exchanges Bithumb, Korbit and Hanbitco argue that 2020 will be the best year for the crypto market due to demand for cryptocurrencies from institutional investors and people of generation Y (Millennials).
Amsterdam stock exchange analyst Michael van de Poppe is confident that the coin will rise to $8000 in early 2020, and a month after that it will rise to $9500. Alistair Milne, Investment Director of the Altana DS Fund, is also confident in the growth of the Bitcoin value. In his opinion, the coin will become more expensive in the run-up to the halving. In parallel, the sale of altcoins in favor of the main cryptocurrency will continue.
Another point of view is held by the founder of Signal Profits Jacob Kenfield, who predicts a decline in the rate of Bitcoin to $5500. But the worst news for today is that more than 20 thousand BTC tokens remain on the accounts of the PlusToken cryptopyramid. And if it continues to sell, according to Bloomberg forecasts, there is a risk of a fall in the price of Bitcoin down to $4000. However, this is not the limit. Calculations for ASIC miners have shown that Bitmain's S17 is a device in which mining will become unprofitable only if the price of Bitcoin falls below $3600. This means that it is at this level that the main support is situated.
For now, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is still in its lower third, at 29, which corresponds to the moderate fear of investors.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  #389  
Old 29-12-2019, 15:28
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Forecast: Dollar, Euro And Other Currencies In 2020


What to expect from major currency pairs in the New year.

There is no doubt that the vast majority of brokerage companies and private traders consider the EUR/USD pair as one of the main tools for their work. Different sources say that this pair holds from 22% to 32% of the Forex market. It is followed by USD/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP.

All these currencies, primarily the dollar and the euro, are more or less correlated with the main macroeconomic indicators and political events, which is a disadvantage from the point of view of technical analysis fans and, conversely, an advantage according to the apologists of fundamental analysis. In the first case, just one Twitter post by the US President breaks through the most powerful support/resistance zones, reverses channels and trends, drives indicators crazy and turns Elliott waves into small splashes. In the second case, macroeconomic statistics allow, without breaking heads over graphical figures and candlestick analysis, to give fairly accurate long-term forecasts. For example, forecasts for the next 12 months.

So, what, according to experts, awaits us in the coming year?


Analysts at Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, Bank of New York Mellon and a number of other banks reach consensus, predicting a fall in the US dollar in 2020. The main reason for this will be a slowdown in global economic growth, which will increase the demand for riskier assets. Especially so since the US Federal Reserve, on the eve of the presidential election, under pressure from Donald Trump, is likely to continue to reduce interest rates, or at least keep them at the existing level.

Financial Times writes that, according to Citigroup experts, the policy of quantitative easing (QE), conducted by the Federal Reserve, and pumping the market with cheap dollar liquidity can become a catalyst for the dollar depreciation. Analysts of the Swiss Bank Lombard Odier, as well as one of the world largest investment companies, BlackRock, who expect a moderate decline in the dollar in the next six months, agree with their colleagues from Citigroup.

JPMorgan Chase experts predict the level of 1.14 for the EUR/USD pair at the end of 2020. Goldman Sachs and Bank of America Merrill Lynch call 1.15. And German Deutsche Bank and French Societe Generale forecasts for the dollar are even more gloomy: they believe that the euro will trade at $1.20 in a year.

According to Bloomberg, the consensus forecast of the largest market operators suggests that by the end of 2020, the US dollar will "lose weight" by another 400-500 points, and the EUR/USD pair will rise to the 1.16 zone.

Conspiracy theorists, of course, suspect market manipulation and talk about the fact that bankers want to buy dollar liquidity at the lowest prices, for which they spread "bearish" forecasts. And here it is appropriate to recall the words of Andreas Koenig, head of Global FX in the multinational investment company Amundi Asset Management, that he had heard many times before about the fall of the dollar against the euro, and every time the opposite happened. "I would be very surprised if this consensus came to fruition," he said.

"It is true that the Fed's interest rate of 1.75% is small," says John Gordon, a leading analyst at brokerage NordFX, "but other regulators have zero or negative interest rates at all. Despite rate cuts, trade wars and other problems, the dollar has risen against the euro by more than 10% since February 2018. And if you look back at the past year results, it is clear that for many investors, due to the weakness of the European economy and the problems with Brexit, the dollar has become a safe haven currency. And for Central Banks, it remains the main reserve currency, far ahead of any other assets."

As for other currencies, Goldman Sachs predicts that the exchange rate of the British pound to the dollar by the end of 2020 will reach 1.37.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch also believes that not only the euro, but, first of all, the pound should benefit from resolving the uncertainty with Brexit, resulting in the GBP/USD pair rising to the horizon of 1.39. The falling dollar will also support emerging markets, strengthening the currencies of the countries belonging to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and the quotes of the USD/JPY pair will fall to 103 yen per dollar.

The Canadian and New Zealand dollars will continue to attract interest, and the price of gold will go up.

Leap year 2020 is 12 months, 366 days, and during these days a lot can happen that can disprove any forecasts. The dollar will depend on the domestic situation in the United States, and on what is happening in global markets, not only in America, but also in Europe and Asia. "I think a full-scale USA deal with China will change the rules of the game... It will change everything!"- predicts David Bloom, global FX strategist at HSBC.

Will it change anything? It is not long that is left to find out the answer to this question. In the meantime:
Patience, good luck and fulfillment of the most cherished wishes to you!

Happy New Year, 2020!


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.


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  #390  
Old 06-01-2020, 14:35
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Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for January 06 - 10, 2020


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. Holidays are for people to get distracted for a while from daily problems, plunging into the magic atmosphere of miracle expectation. And miracles happen, and financial markets are no exception, as we have already warned our readers.
In normal times, investors look either towards the riskier stock market, or seek to hide their capital in safe havens, preferring government bonds, gold and safe-haven currencies. But Christmas and New Year are unusual times, and the market is so thin these days that it can be managed even on small volumes. As a result, in the last decade of December, both the S&P500 stock index continues to update historical highs, and gold, along with the yen and the franc, show an impressive growth. And treasury debt obligations are not going to retreat from the won positions. New Year's miracles, that is! But, as you know, there are much less holidays in the year than working days. And the market returns to its normal state this week.
As for EUR/USD, starting from November 29, the pair is slowly moving along the ascending channel. On December 31, it reached its upper limit at 1.1240, and then changed direction, opening the year, 2020, with a gap down. The pair almost got to the bottom of the channel on Friday afternoon January 03, and then the pair returned to the central zone of the channel on a fairly dismal statistics on business activity in the USA (index ISM in manufacturing sector was below expectations and failed to rise above $50) and ended the week in the area of strong support/resistance 1.1160;

- GBP/USD. The week's result of the British pound was close to zero. Starting at 1.3085, it ended the five-day period at 1.3075, losing just 10 points. However, due to its relatively high volatility, it did not deprive traders of the opportunity to profit: its range of fluctuations over these days amounted to more than 230 points;

- USD/JPY. In contrast to the pound, which ended the five-day period with almost zero results, safe-haven currencies are growing rapidly against the dollar. Thus, the yen gained almost 135 points against the "American": starting from the horizon of 109.45, it finished at 108.10;

– cryptocurrencies. The digital asset market, as well as the Forex market, continues to sum up the results of the past year. For example, the online portal ForkLog has compiled a list of the most prominent and influential crypto persons in 2019. The top 10 is headed by the head of the Bitcoin exchange Binance Changpeng Zhao, in the middle of the list is the head of Facebook Mark Zuckerberg and the Telegram creator Pavel Durov, and the top ten is completed by Chinese President Xi Jinping and Ethereum developer Vitalik Buterin.
Bitcoin, despite all the rate hikes, rose by 110% in 12 months, the S&P500 index rose by 22.8%, and gold added 19% over the same period. The result for the reference cryptocurrency, in general, is quite good, but only for those investors who invested in the coin at the beginning of the year, and not in the mid summer. For the latter, a completely different, sad melody sounds.
Now let's move on to the results of the last week. And here there is nothing to talk about: the same side trend. The pair BTC/USD grows to $7,550 on Dec 29, then drops to $6,900 by 03 January, and then returns to where it started the week in the area of $7,300. In general, it is a complete disappointment for investors. But as for active traders who trade on short timeframes, with a leverage of 1: 50, like with the broker NordFX, the jumps of $650 is a good opportunity to make a profit.
As for the top altcoins, things are also flat here: there is a movement in very narrow side channels with gradual consolidation for a third week running: Ripple (XRP/USD) is around $0.19, Ethereum (ETH/USD) – $130 and Litecoin (LTC/USD) - $42 per coin. The total capitalization of the crypto market has fallen to $190 billion, and Bitcoin Crypto Fear & Greed Index is gradually approaching its neutral position (now it is at 38), which, in fact, also indicates a stagnation in the market.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Last week, we summarized the forecasts given for 2020 by analysts at JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank and a number of other global banks. Recall that, in general, they reached a consensus, predicting the fall of the dollar against the euro and the growth of the pair to levels from 1.1400 to 1.2000. The main reason was a slowdown in global economic growth, which should increase demand for riskier assets. Especially so since the US Federal Reserve, on the eve of the presidential election, under pressure from Donald Trump, is likely to continue to reduce interest rates, or at least keep them at the existing level.
However, there is also an opposite opinion, which is again tied to the US presidential election. It is noted that it is during the election years that the US currency shows particularly good results. In such periods over the past 40 years, the USD index declined only twice. But the euro fell in 9 cases out of 11. So, if you focus on these statistics, the dollar should be bought, not sold. Moreover, for Central Banks, it is still the main reserve currency, far ahead of any other assets.
As for the near future, 55% of experts, supported by 85% of indicators on D1, expect the pair to grow to the upper limit of the ascending channel at the level of 1.1240. The next target is 1.1330. The strengthening of the euro over the dollar can be also facilitated by the macroeconomic data, which we will learn next week. So, on Tuesday, January 07, the December value of the ISM business activity index in the service sector will be known, and on Friday, data on the labor market in the United States will be released. And if the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector (NFP) decreases, according to the forecast, by 40% (from 266K to 160K), this will have a negative impact on the dollar. However, often the market reacts in advance to such predictions, so that immediately at the time of the release of statistics there may not be strong jerks.
In addition to these 55% of bull supporters, there are also 45% of experts who support bearish sentiment. 85% of the indicators on H4 and graphical analysis on the same timeframe side with them. Support levels are 1.1100, 1.1065 and 1.1000;

- GBP/USD. The situation with the pound is again confused and depends on how and what happens to the process of leaving the EU. The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, expressed concern that there is little time left for negotiations on the UK's relations with the European Union after Brexit. In her view, the 11-month transition period for negotiations is extremely short and may have to be extended. And her Deputy Frans Timmermans called on the British to immediately return to the bosom of the European family after the divorce.
In the meantime, 60% of experts expect the pair to grow to the upper limit of the channel 1.3050-1.3215. The goals in case of a breakout are 1.3285, 1.3425 and the December 13 high of 1.3515. Graphical analysis, 15% of trend indicators on D1 and the same number of oscillators that give signals about the pair being oversold agree with this development.
The remaining 40% of analysts and the vast majority of indicators vote for the fall of the pair. The nearest strong support is at 1.2975, the goal is to reach the 1.2825-1.2900 zone;

- USD/JPY. Supported by graphical analysis on D1, 70% of analysts believe that the fall of the pair will stop at the level of 107.80, having fought off from which, the pair will first go to the resistance of 109.25, and then to the maximum values of last December in the area of 109.70.
30% expect that the strengthening of the yen will continue, so the pair will be able to fall to the support of 107.50, and then another 100 points lower.
As for the indicators, 100% of them are colored red on H4 and 85% on D1. Signals of the pair being oversold are given by 15% of oscillators on D1, which is often confirmed by the rapid change of trend;

– cryptocurrencies. Forecasts for the near future are as gray and boring as the charts of crypto pairs. However, the closer to the May halving of Bitcoin, the more green color and optimism of experts appear. 70% of them expect that the quotes will go up sharply. The picture is similar among investors. According to TradeBlock, only 30% of BTC coins were in motion in 2019. The remaining 70% are in wallets in a "frozen" state, in the hope of a future growth.
Of course, there are pessimists among analysts. According to their forecasts, the pair BTC/USD will soon have another fall. The new generation of mining equipment (ASIC S17 and T17) makes this process cost-effective, even if Bitcoin falls to the $3500-4400 zone, and this is where they believe the really strong support is located. But if the pair breaks through it, then we can talk about the end of the 10-year history of the world's first digital currency.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  #391  
Old 08-01-2020, 09:50
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NordFX Professional Prizes and Awards Reach 50


At the end of 2019, NordFX was prized with three more professional awards. Thanks to this, the company can now claim to be one of the most titled brokers in the world: the total number of honorary prizes and awards it has received since 2008 has reached 50.


According to the results of the annual voting on the website of the IAFT Awards, NordFX won the Best Broker in Asia for the second year in a row, where It beat many of its colleagues in the financial market by a large margin.
The IAFT Awards are organized By the International Association of Forex Traders, which includes more than 200,000 traders from different countries. Each of them can vote on the website of the award, which allows you to objectively evaluate the activities of a particular broker.

The trading community of the MasterForex-V Academy also expressed its trust and recognition of the company, giving NordFX the title of "Traders' Choice World Best Broker". As explained by the Chairman of the Jury and a member of the Rectorate of the Academy O. Voron, "in 2019, 52% of new real trading accounts of Masterforex-V traders and 46% at pro-rebate.com were opened with NordFX, which has once again confirmed the advantages of this broker."

The company also won in the main category of the MasterForex-V Academy, receiving the Grand Prix as the "World Best Broker" in 2019, ahead of all its competitors on 22 independent criteria for evaluating the brokers activity.
"It is a surprising fact," said Mr. Voron, " that NordF? has managed to create excellent trading conditions on all types of accounts, both for beginners and experienced traders, with a wide range of financial instruments, high quality dealing and trust-business relationships with clients."

Last year, NordFX was also named the "Best Crypto Broker" by the Fxdailyinfo portal, and It received the "Excellent Affiliate Program" award at the Saigon Financial Education Summit, for its two-level affiliate program, which has already attracted more than 25,000 people from different countries.


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  #392  
Old 12-01-2020, 15:15
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Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for January 13-17, 2020


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. As you know, life is like a zebra: a black stripe comes after a white one, and vice versa. That was what happened this time as well: after the merry New Year holidays came the anxious expectation of a full-fledged war between the United States and Iran. But, a few days later it became clear that both sides want to avoid a full-fledged conflict, and the tension in the geopolitical field went gradually down, which is clearly visible in the oil prices.
Last week, everything went well for the US dollar at first. The US currency was growing thanks to new record highs in the US stock market and optimistic statements of the Fed's leaders. So, the President of the Federal reserve of Richmond Thomas Barkin said that the country's economy and the labor market in the United States looked strong. And according to Fed Vice President Richard Clarida, the current monetary policy of his organization is fully consistent with the state of the country's economy. According to forecasts, US GDP growth in 2020 may be 2-2.5%, or even more.
Up until Friday, January 10, the dollar was growing in anticipation of strong data from the US labor market. As a result, as expected by 45% of experts, supported by 85% of indicators and graphical analysis on H4, the EUR/USD pair fell to the support of 1.1100, and then by another 15 points. But the data on the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector (NFP) disappointed the market so strongly (a drop of 43%) that the pair turned sharply north, jumping to the height of 1.1130. It met the end of the trading session at the level of 1.1120;

- GBP/USD. For the third week in a row, the result for the British pound is close to zero. Starting from the horizon of 1.3075, by Tuesday January 07, it reached the height of 1.3210, then fell to the support of 1.3010, turned around again and finished the five-day period at 1.3060, losing only 15 points during this time. However, as before, due to its rather high volatility, the pair did not deprive traders of the opportunity to earn: the weekly scope of its fluctuations amounted to 200 points;

- USD/JPY. The forecast for this pair was 100% accurate. Recall that, in the opinion of the majority of analysts (70%), supported by graphical analysis on D1, the pair's drop had to stop at the level of 107.80, having rebounced from which it was supposed to go to the 109.25 resistance, and then to the last December highs in the area of 109.70.
In reality, on Monday, January 06, the pair found the bottom at 107.76, turned around and went up. On Wednesday, the yen made another attempt to gain a foothold below the level of 107.00, however, it was unsuccessful as well, and by the end of the week, the pair, as expected by experts, reached the set height of 109.70. This was followed by a small correction, and the final chord sounded at the level of 109.50;

– cryptocurrencies. Indeed, it seems that a number of investors are considering Bitcoin as a financial haven. So, against the background of the confrontation between the US and Iran, the reference cryptocurrency reached a month-and-a-half high, breaking some important resistance levels. Fake information about a sharp increase in the capitalization of stablecoin Tether (USDT) on CoinMarketCap by $500 million also contributed to the growth. As a result, the cost of BTC soared to the height of $8,450 per coin.
The analysis of what happened last week suggests that the crypto market quotes begin to be increasingly influenced by algorithmic trading. Reacting only to the momentum of the price, which in this case was up, the robots began buying coins, giving an additional force to this momentum.
Soon after it became known about the reduction of tension around Iran, and that the information about $500 million is just a fake, the price of Bitcoin went down, dropping to $7,765, then went up again, reaching the height of $8,100 by the evening of Friday, January 10.
As a result of these events, the growth of Bitcoin, starting from January 03, was at a maximum of about 17%, Ethereum (ETH/USD) – the same 17%, Ripple (XRP/USD) – 22%, and Litecoin (LTC/USD) - 27%. At the same time, the total capitalization increased by 10%, and the Bitcoin Crypto Fear & Greed Index is another three points closer to its neutral position, reaching 41.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Starting from November 29, 2019, the pair moved on an upward channel. On December 31, it reached its upper limit at 1.1240, and then changed direction, opening the year 2020 with a gap down. On January 08, it broke through the lower border of the channel at the level of 1.1125, but due to negative data on the labor market in the United States, the bears could not consolidate their success, and the pair finished the week session almost at the level of the breakdown.
Will it return to the limits of the ascending channel? 60% of experts do not think so. In their opinion, the dollar will continue to strengthen, and the pair is expected to decline to the zone of 1.1040-1.1065, the next goal is 1.1000. Graphical analysis on H4 and the majority (70%) of trend indicators on D1 agree with this development. The readings of trend indicators on H4 and oscillators on H4 and D1 can be considered neutral at the moment.
According to the forecasts of the remaining 40% of analysts, the EUR/USD pair will not be able to break through the support at the level of 1.1100, and it will return at least to the central line of the ascending channel, which will be in the zone of 1.1240.
Of course, the trends of the coming week may be affected by the escalation of tension around Iran. But no extra surprises should probably not be expected from the publication of macroeconomic indicators. On Tuesday, Thursday and Friday, data on the US consumer market will be published. On January 16, we will also learn the values of the German HICP consumer price index, which is projected to remain unchanged. The report on the ECB's monetary policy meeting may be more interesting, it will also be published on Thursday 16 January;

- GBP/USD. The UK is less than three weeks away from parting with the European Union. According to Bloomberg, to date, Brexit has already cost the country $170 billion, and by the end of 2020, London will lose another $90 billion. The annual economic growth has halved from 2% to 1%. The British economy is now 3% smaller than it could be if the relations with the EU had remained at the same level. The UK economy is lagging behind the G7 countries and, according to some economists, it has a long way to recover.
In the near future, the pound is highly likely to still move in a fairly wide side channel 1.2900-1.3200 with a Pivot Point in the zone 1.3000-1.3050. At the same time, according to 60% of analysts, supported by 85% of indicators on H4 and D1, the pair will continue to move to its lower border in the coming week. Supports are 1.3010, 1.2970 and 1.2900.
The remaining 40% of experts, in agreement with the graphical analysis on D1, believe that the pair, on the contrary, will break away from the central zone and is likely to reach the December 31, 2019 high at the height of 1.3285. According to the indications of graphical analysis, it may take about four or five days, after which it will return to the Pivot Point;

- USD/JPY. Last week, the pair not only returned to the borders of the medium-term side channel 108.40-109.70, but also reached its upper border. Although 75% of oscillators and 85% of trend indicators are colored green, only 25% of experts believe that the pair will be able to rise to the height of 110.70. The majority of analysts (75%) side with the bears, as well as 15% of the oscillators on H4 and D1, signaling the pair is overbought. Supports are109.20, 108.75 and 108.40. Reaching the last week's lows in the 107.65-107.75 zone is unlikely;

– cryptocurrencies. We have already written that, according to TradeBlock, only 30% of BTC coins in 2019 were in motion. The remaining 70% are in wallets in a "frozen" state. Similar figures were received by Delphi Digital. According to its data, at least 59% of bitcoins purchased in the second half of 2017 have not moved anywhere. That is, their holders did not sell their cryptocurrency even in December 2017, when BTC soared to $20,000 on some trading platforms. Such data suggests that a stable layer of so-called holders has formed in the cryptosphere, who do not part with their coins even when the market is growing aggressively.
Perhaps they are waiting for 2040, when, according to the calculations of Benjamin Cowen, the price of Bitcoin can reach $1 million. According to Cowen, the history of the main cryptocurrency price shows that the market cycles are getting longer: it took 2.5 years to reach the first peak and 4 years to reach the second peak. Extrapolating the model of logarithmic regression to the price of Bitcoin, the expert suggests that it would take about 5.5 years to reach the next peak (after the peak of December 2017), and in 2023 the price of Bitcoin could reach the $100,000 mark. And the Bitcoin of $1mln cannot be earlier than 2040.
At the same time, of course, there is another opinion, according to which, under pressure from regulators, Bitcoin will go into oblivion, and it will be replaced by state and regional digital money. The ECB has started thinking about developing its own cryptocurrency, the BRICS countries are contemplating a single cryptocurrency and the Bank for International settlements has already held the first summit of G20 Central bankers, which discussed the idea of a global cryptocurrency.
But all this is a matter of the distant future. In the meantime, the highs and lows of the past week allow us to say that the BTC/USD pair has moved to a new level of $7,765-8,450 with a Pivot Point in the $8,000-8,100 zone. At the same time, only 30% of analysts believe that it will be able to stay in this corridor, while 70% expect it to fall to the $7,000-7,500 zone.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  #393  
Old 19-01-2020, 02:07
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Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for January 20 - 24, 2020


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. Starting from November 29, 2019, the pair moved along the ascending channel. On December 31, it reached the upper limit of the channel at 1.1240, and then changed direction and on January 08, it broke through the lower limit of the channel at 1.1225. "Will it return to its limits?"– we asked this question last week, to which the majority of experts (60%) answered with a firm "no". And they turned out to be right: Until Thursday, January 16, the bulls tried to do this, but then their strength weakened, and the pair went down sharply.
Even the signing of the "first phase" trade agreement between the US and China did not help the bulls. According to this document, Beijing agreed to increase purchases of American goods and services by about $200 billion in the next two years, and Washington, for its part, promised to lower the duty on Chinese imports worth $120 billion to 7.5% and not introduce new fees.
It should be noted that, in general, this event had already been taken into account by the markets, but still caused a further increase in the US stock indexes and a slight decline in the dollar. Investors continued to reform assets, preferring shares rather than money.
However, the fall of the dollar and the EUR/USD pair was soon stopped due to the publication of the December ECB meeting minutes and the retail sales data in the United States.
In the first case, the management of the European mega-regulator announced that it is not going to raise the key interest rate until the inflation approaches the 2% mark. Moreover, the ECB did not rule out the possibility of moving the rate from the current zero level to the negative zone. As for the second factor, the retail trade volume in the United States increased from -0.1% to + 0.5%, and, as you know, consumer spending accounts for more than 65% of the US GDP. As a result, the euro began to lose its positions against the dollar, and the pair ended the trading session in the zone of a strong support/resistance level of 1.1100, at the level of 1.1090;

- GBP/USD. This pair showed similar dynamics to the EUR/USD, but, as usual, with a much larger scale. So, if the difference between the week low and high for the EUR/USD was just over 85 points, this value was twice as high for the British currency.
The active sale of the pound on January 17 was caused by the report on the UK retail sales for December. The monthly indicator was in the negative area, and the annual indicator was three times less than the forecast value. As a result, at the end of the week, the pound fell to the January 09 low, and ended the five-day period at 1.3015 - exactly where, according to most experts, the medium-term Pivot Point (1.3000-1.3050) of this pair is located;

- USD/JPY. 25% of experts, supported by 75% of oscillators and 85% of trend indicators, voted for the pair to rise to the level of 110.70. It did go up, but the pair's growth was stopped at 110.30. Despite the fact that the yen lost only about 80 points to the dollar during the week, this can be considered a significant event, since it overcame the psychologically important level of 110.00. Recall that after passing the mark of 29.000, the Dow Jones index confidently went up, and it is possible that the same thing will happen with the USD/JPY pair;

– cryptocurrencies. Every Wednesday, analysts of NordFX brokerage company publish weekly reviews of the cryptocurrency market on NordFX's Facebook page, Twitter channel, and other social networks. In another such review on Wednesday, January 15, it was suggested that the cost of BTC in February has all the chances to rise to the level of 9,5 thousand dollars. Increased correlation with gold as well as various external factors will allow the main coin to add at least $1000 per month. Among these factors, first of all, the use of bitcoin as a safe haven asset should be noted. A clear proof of this phenomenon was the growth of the main cryptocurrency against the background of escalating tensions around Iran.
On Tuesday last week, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange announced the successful launch of a new financial instrument, the option for Bitcoin, which allowed the BTC/USD quotes to reach a landmark level of $9,000 on Friday, January 17. Thus, the pair's growth over the past two weeks has exceeded 22%.
Altcoins also soared in the wake of the main cryptocurrency. Ripple (XRP/USD) showed an increase of 25%, Ethereum (ETH/USD) – 30%, and the most impressive was the strengthening of Litecoin (LTC/USD): its growth was about 50%. The total capitalization of the crypto market increased by 14.5% and reached $245 billion.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. For three weeks in a row, the pair is moving down, the euro has fallen by about 240 points. The vast majority of indicators are now red not only on H4, but also on D1. Among the oscillators on H4 there are 75% of them, on D1 – 65%, among the trend indicators 100% on H4 and 90% on D1 point to the south. The nearest support is 1.1065, the bears' target is 1.1000.
At the same time, some of the oscillators already give active signals about the pair being oversold. 60% of experts also look up. In their opinion, the pair will try once again to return to the limits of the medium-term ascending channel, which started in early December 2019. The nearest resistance is 1.1150. The targets are 1.1200 and 1.1240; The pair's growth may be helped by the outflow of capital to the stock market, provoked by the decline in tensions in trade relations between the US and China. This reduced the probability of a recession in the United States to 24%, which is the lowest rate in the last eight months.
Monday, January 20, is a day off in the United States, but it is at this time that the People's Bank of China will announce its decision on the interest rate, which is currently 4.15%. In addition, other events are of interest. On Tuesday, January 21, the German business sentiment Index will be published. According to forecasts, it may fall from 10.7 to 4.3 units, which may lead to some weakening of the European currency. On Thursday, the ECB's decision on the interest rate will be announced, and a press conference of the European regulator's management will also be held. And on Friday, January 24, we are waiting for a whole series of publications of estimated indicators of business activity both in Germany and in the Eurozone as a whole;

- GBP/USD. Two macro indicators will help to assess the state of the UK economy, such as the ILO unemployment rate, which will be released on Tuesday, and the Markit business activity index, being published on Friday 24 January. However, in the run-up to the upcoming Brexit, they are unlikely to have a serious impact on the formation of trends for this pair.
The pair finished the previous week in the mid-term Pivot Point zone 1.3000-1.3050. At the time of writing the forecast, just as in the case of the euro, 60% of experts expect the pair to grow, 40% – to fall. Indicators, especially oscillators, look very versatile. Graphical analysis on D1 indicates first the pair's growth to the level of 1.3120, and then a fall to the horizon of 1.2770.
Support levels are 1.2955, 1.2900, 1.2825 and 1.2770. Resistance levels are 1.3120, 1.3210 and 1.3285;

- USD/JPY. Here, everything points to a slight advantage of the bulls, who will try to keep the pair above the 110.00 mark and move it as high as possible from this border. Thus, 55% of analysts, 70% of oscillators, 95% of trend indicators, as well as graphical analysis on H4 and D1 indicate a gradual growth of the pair. The nearest strong resistance level is 110.75, and the next one is 100 points higher.
15% of experts have given a neutral forecast, and 30% have voted for the fall of the pair. The largest number of signals about the pair being overbought have been given by oscillators on D1. The main support level is 109.70. If it breaks, the pair may fall to the zone of 109.00, and then to the horizon of 108.40. Reaching the January 06-08 lows in the 107.65-107.75 zone is still unlikely;

– cryptocurrencies. Finally, it happened: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has crossed the equator and risen to 54, approaching the zone called "Greed". Is it good or bad? According to the index developers, it can be dangerous to open short positions at this moment. And what about the long ones?
65% of analysts believe that the upward momentum of the BTC/USD pair has not yet been exhausted and it is able to gain a foothold in the $9,000-10,000 zone.
An alternative point of view is supported by 35% of experts. Agreeing that the situation is somewhat similar to 2017, they draw attention to the fact that, starting from June 2019, we are seeing a series of decreasing highs: $13,765 on June 26, $13,170 on July 10, $12,320 on August 06, $10,480 on October 26. And it is possible that $9,000 will be the next local high, followed by another collapse.
But for now, the market is full of optimism, and the predictions of all sorts of crypto enthusiasts are breaking all thinkable and unthinkable records. The most modest is the forecast of the analytical firm Fundstrat Global Advisors, which has stated that in the coming year, Bitcoin is highly likely to bring investors more than 100% of profits. According to the Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee, the most important factors that will contribute to the growth of the price of the first cryptocurrency are halving, geopolitical risks and the US presidential election.
The most "space" forecast was given by Blockstream CEO Adam Back. He is convinced that the dreams of Bitcoin worth $100 thousand and even $10 million are not so far from reality. Back has commented on the idea of one of the leading representatives of the cypherpunk movement, Hal Finney, who is historically considered the second developer of Bitcoin, after Satoshi Nakamoto. Finney suggested "as a thinking experiment" to imagine that Bitcoin has become the dominant payment system in the world. "The total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all the world's wealth. Current estimates of household assets around the world that I have found range from $100 to $ 300 trillion. If there are 20 million coins, the value of each of them will be about $10 million, " Finney wrote. Beck noted that due to the rising dollar inflation, " this is closer than it seems." But the crypto prophet did not specify how much closer.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  #394  
Old 25-01-2020, 04:28
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Copy Trading: One More NordFX Service for Profitable Trading and Investing


The broker company NordFX has offered its clients one more opportunity for profitable trading and investment in the financial markets in 2020: Copy Trading service.


Copy Trading is a simple and clear type of social trading in which transactions from the signal provider's account are automatically copied to the subscriber's account. This service allows experienced traders to make additional profit by selling their trading signals, and for beginners - by copying them. It is also suitable for those who are interested in passive investment in financial markets, since it does not require any independent trading experience or any serious time costs.

You can select a signal provider using full statistical information and online monitoring data for more than 30 parameters. At the same time, the obvious advantage of Copy Trading is that subscribers have full control over their accounts. At any time, the subscriber can close one or more copied trades, stop subscribing to signals, and simultaneously conduct independent trading on this account. In addition, the subscriber can adjust the copied transactions in accordance with the available funds and the desired risk/return ratio.

The advantage is also the fact that the subscriber pays the provider a fee only for profitable transactions and only for the total profit for the entire copying period.

The new service allows you to make and copy trades using the entire range of trading tools available in NordFX on a standard Pro account, including Forex currency pairs, cryptocurrencies, gold, silver, oil, and major stock indices.

Transactions are copied even when the terminal is turned off, and the subscriber does not need to keep the computer turned on 24 hours a day or spend money on renting a VPS server.

You can learn more about the work of the Copy Trading service, become a subscriber or a signal provider through your personal account on the broker's official website.


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  #395  
Old 25-01-2020, 14:24
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Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for January 27 - 31, 2020


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The euro is falling again, and it has lost about 70 points to the dollar over the past five days. There are two reasons for this: the coronavirus epidemic in China and the very cautious new ECB Head Christine Lagarde.
It is well known that the Eurozone economy is strongly correlated with the Chinese economy, as has recently been demonstrated by the trade wars. And if the economy of China is sick, then the European one is also experiencing a strong malaise. In 2003, a pandemic in China killed more than 700 people and caused retail sales to fall by almost half. But despite the fact that the new virus is considered less dangerous, it can now spread much faster than at the beginning of the century. The reason for this is the infrastructure of China, which has become much more developed during this time. Oil prices were the first to react to the new attack, but the foreign exchange market was not long in reacting.
As for Ms. Lagarde, she really disappointed investors, saying that the revision of the ECB's strategy is a long process that will only be completed by the end of 2020. Moreover, against the background of the US President Trump's warnings about the possible introduction of increased duties on European exports, Ms. Lagarde considered that "the risks for the euro zone are still skewed towards the decline of the economy." And so the European regulator will have to maintain an ultra-soft approach to its monetary policy.
Against the background of such statements by the head of the ECB and the Chinese epidemic, even favorable data on business activity in Germany (PMI) did not help the euro, and the EUR/USD pair fell to the level of 1.1020 by the end of the week. Last week, 40% of experts and the absolute majority of indicators warned that it would attack the 1.1000 level. Among the oscillators on H4 there are 75% of them, on D1 – 65%, among the trend indicators, 100% on H4 and 90% on D1 point to the south.

- GBP/USD. Thanks to the growth of business activity (PMI) on Friday, January 24, the British currency reached a two-week high at 1.3172, but then went down again. Expectations of an interest rate cut at the Bank of England meeting on January 30, as well as the same notorious Chinese coronavirus, contributed to the fall.
The dynamics of the movement of the GBP/USD pair was most accurately predicted last week by graphical analysis. As for the final chord, the pair ended the trading session at 1.3080, slightly correcting the mid-term Pivot Point zone in the upward direction - to the range of 1.3050-1.3085;

- USD/JPY. According to some experts, the extremely low volatility of the EUR/USD pair indicates that a certain balance has been established between these two major currencies. And now the euro and the dollar are in the balance on the one hand, and emerging market currencies and stocks on the other. And these markets, especially those of neighboring countries, may be particularly affected by the crisis caused by the spread of the Chinese coronavirus.
As it turned out, the yen gained the most from such anxious but vague expectations, being a safe haven that can shelter investors' capital from unpredictable financial storms. A third of the experts who voted for the fall of the pair, and even more so the oscillators that gave signals about its overbought, could not know about the coronavirus pandemic, but, nevertheless, gave the correct forecast. The pair quickly turned the support of 109.65-109.70 into resistance, and then found a local bottom at the level of 109.17. As for the end of the trading session, it finished it very close, at the level of 109.27;

– cryptocurrencies. If someone dreamed of cryptocurrencies as an independent and free from state control financial system, they could forget about it. Just one example. The Minister of Finance of Ukraine announced that the state financial monitoring service will investigate where the citizens of this country got the cryptocurrency from. According to the Minister, the tools available to this organization allow them to determine both the origin of digital assets and what they were spent on. Moreover, this service has the authority to block cryptocurrencies and seize assets illegally obtained by Ukrainian citizens.
It is clear that this news did not contribute to the fall of Bitcoin, but the fact remains that the reference cryptocurrency could not gain a foothold above $9,000 and on Friday, January 24, it fell to the $8,250-8,450 zone.
According to some experts, what is to blame for this fall... is the Chinese New Year. Comparing the results of trading in this period over the past few years, they noted that the risk of a drawdown of the main coin is present even against the background of the overall growth dynamics. According to their calculations, in Asia, about 10 percent of residents have savings in cryptocurrency. And before the New Year, they start cashing in assets and spending money on gifts and holiday parties.
Altcoins: Ethereum (ETH/USD), Litecoin (LTC/USD) and Ripple (XRP/USD), as usual, followed in the wake of the main cryptocurrency. The total capitalization of the crypto market decreased from $251 to $236 billion.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. As already mentioned, for the ECB, a weak euro is now preferable to a strong one. Realizing this, the bulls do not want to take risks, which makes the European currency even weaker. Its nearest target in the downtrend is 1.1000, followed by 1.0960. This is followed by the low of October 01, 2019 -1.0880. 55% of analysts now vote for the fall, supported by 85% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators not only on H4 and D1, but also on W1.
The opposite view is expressed by 45% of experts and 15% of oscillators in the oversold zone. Moreover, when switching from a weekly forecast to a monthly one, the number of bull supporters increases to 70%. The immediate task is to overcome the strong resistance in the 1.1065 zone, followed by the 1.1100 and 1.1175 resistances.
As for the Fed's decision on the interest rate on January 29, it is likely that it will remain at the same level – 1.75%, and this meeting will not have much impact on the dynamics of the pair;

- GBP/USD. Done! Here it is, the X day, Friday 31 January, which will be followed by the UK's farewell to the European Union. Brexit, which everyone has been talking about for so long, can be considered accomplished. However, we think that at the moment this event will put more moral pressure on the market – the relatively smooth process of the country's exit from the EU significantly reduces investment risks. Moreover, the current low rate of the pound helps the British economy in many ways, strengthening its competitiveness in foreign markets.
If there are no unexpected unpleasant surprises from Brexit, the pound may feel relatively calm. And it is not excluded that it will grow not only against the euro, but also against the dollar. So, 65% of experts expect it to move north - first to the resistance of 1.3160, and then to the height of 1.3200.
An alternative forecast is given by 35% of experts, according to whom the GBP/USD pair is expected to fall further. This scenario is especially likely if the Bank of England meeting on Thursday, January 30, gives at least a hint of a possible interest rate cut. In this case, the British currency has every chance to continue its journey to the south, in which, after breaking through the supports of 1.3040, 1.3000 and 1.2960, it can reach the lows of last December in the 1.2900 zone. Graphic analysis on D1 actively supports this development;

- USD/JPY. There is some confusion among the indicators, but 10% of the oscillators are already giving clear signals that this pair is oversold. 60% of analysts supported by graphical analysis on D1 believe that it will stop falling as well. The goal is to rise to the zone 110.20-110.30. The next resistance is at 110.80;
The remaining 40% of experts side with the bears, who believe that the downward trend of the past week will continue. The Dow Jones index is aiming for 30.000, and the USD/JPY pair should break through the 109 mark, which will lead to further losses for all cross-pairs related to the Japanese currency. The main support is at 108.40, the next one is 60 points lower;

– cryptocurrencies. Along with the fall of the main cryptocurrency, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index also fell slightly down, from 54 to 40. This is not yet a fear of the market, but investors are no longer particularly attracted to opening long positions.
Even some of the crypto prophets have tempered their appetites. In a recent tweet, trader and crypto analyst Josh Rager expressed the opinion that, as in other markets, Bitcoin has a "law of decreasing the rate of return", and there is a decrease in its profitability in each cycle. "The next Bitcoin maximum will not be as high as most people think. Some point to $100,000, $300,000, and $1 million. One should also take into account the decrease in the profit margin by about 20% in each cycle. Therefore, I think the next high will be in the range of $75,000 to $85,000," the analyst wrote. Rager's position on this issue was also supported by the cryptocurrency analytical company ByteTree.
If we talk about forecasts for the near future, they are not so optimistic. 50% of experts expect the BTC/USD pair to fall to the $7,500-8,000 zone, 30% voted for a sideways trend and only 20%¬ - for the pair to rise above the $9,000 horizon. However, when switching to the monthly forecast, the number of crypto optimists increases to 70%.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  #396  
Old 03-02-2020, 06:20
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Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for February 03 - 07, 2020


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The past week passed under the sign of the coronavirus, which determined the lion's share of what was happening in the markets. Commodities and currencies that are most clearly linked to China have suffered the most.
As you know, the euro zone economy is closely correlated with the Chinese economy, and this played into the hands of the dollar in the first half of the week. As expected by the majority (55%) of experts, supported by 85% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators not only on H4 and D1, but also on W1, the EUR/USD pair went down and reached the 1.1000 support on Wednesday, January 29.
After reaching the local bottom at 1.0992, it turned around and headed back north.
This move could have stopped the WHO (World Health Organization) statement, but its officials did everything possible to avoid causing panic in the markets and finally undermining economic activity. On the one hand, the WHO declared the coronavirus epidemic an emergency of international significance, but on the other, it asked people to behave as usual.
As a result, the European currency continued its growth, even despite the release of weak macroeconomic data from the eurozone. The pair was supported not only by US GDP data, but also by the Bank of England's decision to keep the interest rate (more on this later). Throughout 2019, the pound and the euro supported each other in the fight against the dollar, so the growth of the British currency could not help but push up its European "counterpart". The elimination of short positions on the eve of the weekend also contributed to the growth of the EUR/USD pair on Friday. As a result, by the end of the weekly session, the pair returned to the medium-term Pivot Point zone, around which it has been fluctuating since mid-July 2019 -1.1085-1.1100, confirming the hypothesis about the equilibrium state of these two currencies in the recent months;

- GBP/USD. The Bank of England minutes of January 30: the volume of asset purchases by the Bank of England: unchanged (£435B), the interest rate: unchanged (0.75%), the number of votes cast for keeping the rate unchanged: unchanged (7), the number of votes for lowering it: unchanged (2). That is, everything is exactly as it was a month ago. And this "no change" suddenly pushes the British pound up against the dollar and against a number of other currencies, including the euro. Why?
January 31 is the official date of the UK's exit from the European Union, however, by the end of 2020, according to the agreement on the transition period, there are no serious events on this front, the country is waiting for another round of long negotiations with the EU. The coronavirus could shake up the market. Due of its outburst, the probability of an interest rate cut by the Bank of England went up. However, this did not happen. The Monetary Policy Committee considered that the improvement in the economic situation after the December elections to the UK Parliament will continue in the future and decided to leave the rate unchanged.
What happened fully justified the forecast, for which the main (65%) part of analysts voted last week. In their opinion, the GBP/USD pair should first break through the resistance of 1.3160, and then approach the height of 1.3200. This actually happened: the British currency set the final chord at the level of 1.3202;

- USD/JPY. Many investors felt that a safe-haven currency like the yen could protect them from the onset of the coronavirus. This confidence and the reversal from risky assets to protective ones contributed to another strengthening of the Japanese currency last week. 40% of experts named the level of 108.40 as the main support for the USD/JPY pair, in the area of which it ended the working week at the mark of 108.36;

– cryptocurrencies. It should be noted that last week only 20% of experts supported the opinion that by the end of January, Bitcoin will be able to gain a foothold above the $9,000 horizon. The vast majority (70%) expected this to happen only 2-3 weeks later. However, the coronavirus did its job.
- US stocks started the week with a big sell-off. All the three main indicators went into a negative territory amid concerns about the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 400 points, the Nasdaq Composite index fell 1.8%, and the S&P 500 lost 1.4%. At the same time, Bitcoin rose, reaching the level of $9.550 USD on the night of Thursday to Friday. "Every time the regulated markets fall due to fear and apprehension, Bitcoin grows. And this reinforces the concept of the main cryptocurrency as a safe haven asset, " analyst Nathaniel Whittemore explained what is happening in an interview with BlockTV.
The growth of the leading cryptocurrency also gave a boost to the entire crypto market, pushing top coins, including Ethereum (ETH/USD), Litecoin (LTC/USD) and Ripple (XRP/USD), into the green zone. The total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market also went up: if on January 25, it was $235bn, five days later it reached the level of almost $267bn, showing an increase of 13.5%.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Some Americans think that everything that happens outside the United States does not concern them. But this is not the case at all. The economy of the United States depends largely on what happens in other countries. And, realizing this, the Fed is quite sensitive to international challenges, which is why it is sometimes called the "tail" that the dog, the global GDP, turns. At the moment, the next challenge is the coronavirus coming from China. Although there has been no obvious reaction from the "tail" yet.
The coronavirus has not yet been localized, so panic moods that lead to the sale of risky assets may become the main trend of the coming week. A positive piece of news, say, about the successful creation of a vaccine against this infection, can dramatically "turn the rivers back". It is very difficult to predict anything in this case.
If we talk about technical analysis, most of the indicators on H4 are colored green, while on D1 the neutral gray dominates. But on both timeframes, about 15% of the oscillators signal that the pair is overbought, which can serve as a harbinger, if not of a change in the trend, then at least of a certain correction to the south. Graphical analysis on H4 agrees with this development, foreshadowing a return to a very strong support of 1.0990-1.1000.
The experts' opinion at the moment, as well as that of indicators on D1, can be called neutral-gray. However, when switching from a weekly to a monthly forecast, it becomes more and more green, reaching a high of 70%. That is the number of analysts who believe that, having overcome the resistance in the 1.1100-1.1115 zone, the pair will consistently storm the height of 1.1145 in February, then 1.1170, 1.1200 and reach the December 31, 2019 high at 1.1240.
As for macroeconomic statistics, next week we will know the values of the ISM business activity indices in the US manufacturing and services sectors, as well as the traditional for the first Friday of the month data on the US labor market (including NFP).
However, the markets may expect a surprise as early as on Monday, February 03, when the January Caixin Purchasing Managers' activity index (PMI) is published, which is a leading indicator of the state of China's manufacturing sector. Its value can give the market a signal about how the coronavirus has affected the economic situation in China.
Monday's surprises may not end there – on February 03, the real season of "hunting" for the us President's seat opens. This day will be the first democratic primary in Iowa. And in the event of a strong Bernie Sanders result, there may be an equally strong market reaction;

- GBP/USD. After such an impressive jump up by 230 points at the end of last week, the vast majority of indicators on both H4 and D1 are colored green. However, as with the previous pair, about 15% of the oscillators are already in the overbought zone. Following them, the graphical analysis on D1 draws a possible fall of the British currency first to the horizon of 1.2970, and then to the level of 1.2800. The nearest strong support is 1.3100.
It should be noted that, starting a month and a half ago with fluctuations in the range 1.2900-1.3285, the pair gradually reduced volatility to the boundaries of 1.2975-1.3200. Most analysts (55%) believe that it will be able to stay within this corridor in the near future. However, not much less (45%) are those who expect the pound to continue its positive dynamics, break through the resistance in the zone of 1.3285-1.3300 and rise to the highs of last December in the area of 1.3500;

- USD/JPY. The upcoming quotes of this pair directly depend on the success of virologists. If they can tame the coronavirus in the next few days, the dollar will win. If the epidemic begins to take over new territories, and the number of its victims continues to multiply, the advantage will be on the side of the Japanese currency - the haven.
Since financial analysts do not currently have data on what is happening in scientific laboratories, their opinions are divided 50-50. As for technical analysis, 100% of trend indicators and 80% of oscillators on H4 and D1 predict the pair's fall. Graphical analysis on H4 agrees with them. Support levels are 107.70, 107.00 and 106.60. The opposite opinion is held by the graphical analysis on D1 and 20% of the oscillators that signal the pair is oversold. Resistance levels are 109.25, 109.70, the target is 110.25;

– cryptocurrencies. The BTC/USD pair has shown an increase of 30% or $2,200 in the first month of 2020. The Bitcoin Crypto Fear & Greed Index has crossed the equator and is now at the level of 55 out of the possible 100. Analysts' optimism has also grown. If earlier, remembering the unexpected collapses of the main cryptocurrency, they were afraid to give positive forecasts, now 60% of them boldly point to the $10,000 mark. And this is where investors need to be especially careful: it is in the moments of greatest optimism that large speculators can start an active game on the downside. And you don't need to go far for examples – just look at what happened last year.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  #397  
Old 09-02-2020, 10:07
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Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for February 10 - 14, 2020


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The statistics in the United States (including ISM and NFP) look rather optimistic. The US indices have updated their record levels over the past five days: The Dow Jones is 29393 and the S&P500 is 3345. Production orders in Germany have been falling by 0.5% for three months in a row, confirming concerns about the state of the European economy, which is teetering on the edge of recession. As a result, expectations are growing among investors regarding the expansion of quantitative easing (QE) policy in the euro zone, and confidence is growing that the dollar rate will remain at least unchanged. This has recently been stated by the Fed Vice President Randal Quarles. Donald Trump also radiates optimism ahead of the presidential election, insistently reminding the voters that the unemployment in the US is at a record low of 3.5%.
Recall that the opinion of experts, as well as most indicators on D1, regarding the pair's quotes on the last five-day period, was neutral-gray: 50-50. First of all, because of the unclear situation with the coronavirus. But at the same time, on both timeframes, H4 and D1, about 15% of the oscillators gave signals the pair was overbought and the trend reversal down was upcoming. Graphical analysis on H4 agrees with this development, foreshadowing a return to a very strong support of 1.0990-1.1000.
This is exactly what happened: the pair did turn around and reached the specified support on Wednesday, February 05. This was followed by a 20-hour battle of the bulls and the bears, which, in the end, ended with the victory of the latter. The dollar continued to rise, while the euro continued to fall. The decline in coronavirus infection rates and the market support from the Central Bank of China played into the hands of the US currency. As a result, on Friday, February 07, after updating the multi-month low, the pair found a local bottom at 1.0940, and ended the trading session at 1.0945;

- GBP/USD. Following the euro, the pound lost its position against the dollar. An additional pressure is exerted on it by concerns that the UK will still not be able to agree a trade deal with the EU during the post-Brexit transition period.
As in the case of EUR/USD, about 15% of oscillators last week gave clear signals about the pair being overbought, and graphical analysis predicted a decline in the British currency first to the horizon of 1.2970, and then to the level of 1.2800. In fact, the pair's fall stopped on Friday, February 07, approximately in the middle of the named range – in the 1.2880 zone;

- USD/JPY. The decrease in the rate of the coronavirus infection and the hopes for an early victory over this infection reduce the interest of markets in safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen. As a result, the pair managed to break the landmark level of 110.00 in the second half of the week and reach the level of 110.016. Then there was a rebound, and the final chord sounded in the area of a strong medium-term support/resistance zone – at the level of 109.75;

– cryptocurrencies. - Bitcoin has had the best January in the past seven years. The value of the main coin has increased by about 30 percent. The volume of capitalization of the asset added about $39 billion. according to experts, the reason for this rise was the geopolitical situation. The approaching halving has also affected the value of Bitcoin. The last time Bitcoin showed such aggressive growth dynamics was in January 2013. Then the coin increased in value by about 54 percent. It is noteworthy that at that time the asset was also preparing for the halving.
Another reason pushing the BTC/USD pair up was the coronavirus. "Asian investors are increasingly buying cryptocurrency because of the situation with the coronavirus. Payments in dollars may be banned, so Bitcoin and other coins will be the only way out," Vijay Ayyar, one of the top managers of the Luno crypto exchange, said on CNBC. Also, in his opinion, the price of Bitcoin is affected by the "black" market. Many companies from China have closed the export of goods, which is why the scale of smuggling paid for with cryptocurrency has increased significantly.
Whatever it was, the halving, along with the virus and the smugglers, have almost "pushed" Bitcoin quotes to the cherished bar of $10,000: on Thursday, February 06, fully justifying the forecasts of most experts, the cost of one coin reached the mark of $9,860.
Naturally, the growth of the leading cryptocurrency gave another impetus to the top altcoins. Ethereum (ETH/USD) reached $223.9, Litecoin (LTC/USD) – $75.30 and Ripple (XRP/USD) – $0.2800.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Over the past week, all most popular currency pairs have reached landmark levels: EUR/USD(1.1000), GBP/USD (1.3000) and USD/JPY (110), which makes the task of forecasting their further movement even more difficult, since these levels can act as both a very strong support and resistance.
At the time of writing this forecast (Saturday, February 08), the situation with indicators for the EUR/USD pair mirrors what we observed a week ago. 100% of trend indicators and 85% of oscillators on H4 and D1 are now colored red. And the remaining 15% of the oscillators now signal the pair is oversold and a rebound up is expected.
60% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on H4, believe that the pair will continue to fall, aiming to test the lows of November-October 2019 in the area of 1.0880. And if successful, it will open the way to the zone of 1.0500-1.0800, where it already visited in 2015-2017.
However, graphical analysis as a further perspective draws a rebound of the pair from the support of 1.0880 back up: first to the resistance of 1.1000, and then another 100 points higher. The majority (60%) of analysts agree that the pair will reach 1.1100 and 1.1200 again in the medium term.
As for the macroeconomic analysis, next week we will be covered by a whole wave of important events. Among them are the speech of the Fed Jerome Powell to the US Congress, the publication of statistics on the consumer markets of Germany and the United States on 13 and 14 February, and the release of GDP data for Germany and Eurozone at the end of the week, on Friday 14 February;

- GBP/USD. On Tuesday, February 11, the data on the UK GDP for the 4th quarter of 2019 will also be available. It is expected that the increase will be zero, which may put additional pressure on the pound. It should be noted that the situation with Brexit and the monetary policy of the Bank of England makes the prospects for the British currency very vague. At least, now the experts' opinions are divided into three almost equal parts: 30% are for the growth, 30% are for the fall and 40% are for the sideways movement of the pair. In the medium term, the majority of analysts (65%) still hope for the successful promotion of the trade negotiations between Britain and the EU.
As for technical analysis, the situation repeats the situation with the EUR/USD: the indicators are colored red, and only 15% of the oscillators are in the oversold zone.
The pair finished the week at the level of1. 2880 ¬- in the Pivot Point zone, along which it rotated from the end of October to the beginning of December 2019. Therefore, the nearest borders of its fluctuations are the borders of the same last year's corridor -1.2800 and 1.3000. However, the fall of the pound over the past five days by as much as 320 points suggests that it may not stay in the specified channel. The next target for the bears is the 1.2400-1.2580 zone. If the trend turns up, we will see the pair in the 1.2975-1.3200 zone with a Pivot Point of 1.3100. Due to the increased volatility of the pair, it is not possible to give more accurate benchmarks (recall that in December 2019, it "flew" more than 600 points in just 10 days!);

- USD/JPY. Japan is the most energy-dependent country due to the lack of its own energy resources, especially now, when after blocking several nuclear power plants, it was necessary to significantly increase purchases of petroleum products. Therefore, a sharp increase in the price of this energy carrier always leads to a weakening of the Japanese currency.
Over the past week, the oil market has been experiencing increased volatility in anticipation of the OPEC + Committee's decision to reduce the oil production. As a result, it was decided to reduce its production by 600,000 barrels per day, which should stop the fall in the price of "black gold". The easing of China's trade policy should also support the oil market, in particular, Beijing's decision to reduce duties on US goods worth $75 billion. Most likely, all this affected the growth of the USD/JPY pair and the fall of the Japanese currency to 110 yen per dollar last week. 60% of experts expect that the pair will continue to grow further, which will be facilitated not only by the oil factor, but also by the improvement of the situation with the coronavirus.
However, we must not forget that since January 06, Brent oil futures have fallen by almost 21% – from $68.91 to $54.45, which gives reason to the remaining 40% of analysts to side with the Japanese currency.
The technical analysis situation here is as follows. On the H4 timeframe, 80% of oscillators and 75% of trend indicators look up, while on D1, 85% of oscillators and 90% of trend indicators are green. So, there is a clear advantage of bullish sentiment.
Graphical analysis on H4 indicates a drop in the pair to the zone of 109.10-109.30, the following supports are 108.30 and 107.65. On D1, the picture is reversed: first, growth to the 110.80-111.30 level, and then to the 111.70 height. The nearest resistance is 1.2575.

– cryptocurrencies. So, the price of Bitcoin has updated the 3-month high. "Beware of a trend reversal!"- 20% of experts warns. Against the background of the coronavirus epidemic, relations between the US and China may stabilize, which will cause an increase in investor interest in fiat currencies. In this case, Bitcoin can sink a lot. Even without the coronavirus, these two industrial giants are moving step by step toward the end of the trade war. But how much will this affect the Bitcoin quotes?
80% of analysts believe that a particularly strong drawdown (below $9,100) should not be expected, and the pair will soon reach the $10,450 mark. And there's $12,300 just around the corner. Thomas Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, predicts even greater growth. In his opinion, the average yield on Bitcoin in the next six months will reach 200%.
But, as often happens, when everyone looks up, the price goes down. Therefore, we strongly advise you not to forget about the 20% of specialists who call for extreme caution.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  #398  
Old 16-02-2020, 10:36
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Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for February 17 - 21, 2020


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. Stop-loss orders on long positions for this pair are triggered one after another for the second week in a row. The bulls retreat, successively surrendering all their lines of defense. The pair has not just updated the lows of this and last years, it has reached the lowest values since May 2017. And the most interesting thing is that there is no one serious reason for such a collapse of the European currency. You can explain the collapse of the USD/CHF pair on "Black Thursday" in January 2015 or the fall of the pound following the referendum on the UK's exit from the EU. And here it seems that nothing extraordinary has happened.
Experts call a variety of possible reasons that in total could lead to the fact that the dollar has pushed the euro by 270 points over the past two weeks, and, practically, without corrections. Among them are the difference in the positions of the ECB and the Fed regarding the policy of easing (QE) and the value of interest rates, as well as concerns about a prolonged recession in the euro zone, caused by the gloomy macroeconomic indicators of the German and EU economies. Coronavirus did not have the last word, because, unlike the US, the European economy is more vulnerable to Chinese risks. Traditionally, the dollar has been supported by a series of government bond offerings by the US Treasury.
It is difficult to say which of these factors the experts surveyed had been guided by, but the forecast given by most of them was absolutely accurate. Recall that 60% of experts supported by graphical analysis on H4, 100% of trend indicators and 85% of oscillators were confident that the pair would continue to fall. The goal was to test the November-October 2019 lows around 1.0880. The test was successful, and the pair ended the five-day session at 1.0835;

- GBP/USD. The British currency seemed to set out to prove to the British that their country's exit from the EU was absolutely correct. While the former European "counterpart" of the pound, the euro, was continuously falling, the British, on the contrary, was growing all the past week, adding almost 200 points and reaching at maximum the height of 1.3070.
Initially, after the unexpected resignation of Chancellor Sajid Javid, who disagreed with the personnel policy of Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the pound went down, but very quickly it turned around after Rishi Sunak became the new Head of the UK Finance Ministry - an experienced financier and, concurrently, the son-in-law of a billionaire. Tax cuts and increased budget spending, of which Sunak is an apologist, can seriously fuel interest in the British currency.
The forecast given last week believed that in the event of an upward trend reversal, the pound would overcome the resistance of 1.2975 and possibly break through the upper limit of the 1.2800-1.3000 channel. This is what happened: the pair set the final chord at 1.3045;

- USD/JPY. It seems that the bulls can't take the 110.00 level. Not yet. The pair tried to gain a foothold above it in mid-January and tried again to do so in February. But again, to no avail. Even the strengthening of the dollar as a safe-haven currency did not help. Having barely reached the 110.13 mark in the middle of the week, the pair turned around and eventually finished at 109.77;

– cryptocurrencies. What is the best refuge from the economic turmoil caused by the coronavirus? Dollar? Yes, indeed, it shows convincing growth against the euro and a number of other currencies. But Bitcoin shows even more convincing growth against the dollar itself. Last week, 80% of analysts thought that the BTC/USD pair would reach $10.450. And this forecast was 99.99% correct: ¬ on Thursday, February 13, its quotes reached a height of $10.490. Thus, since the beginning of January, the cost of the main cryptocurrency has increased by more than 45%.
So, is Bitcoin the super safe haven?
However, as it turned out, there are even more attractive assets. The demand for Bitcoin has also pushed the demand for such top altcoins as Ethereum (ETH/USD), Litecoin (LTC/USD), Ripple (XRP/USD), and others. And if before they followed in the wake of the reference cryptocurrency, now some of them have gone far ahead. For example, Ethereum has increased in price by 120% since the beginning of the year, but it has increased by 35% only in the last week.
This activity of alternative coins could not but affect the share of Bitcoin in the total capitalization of the crypto market: if in early January it was 70%, today it has dropped to 62.4%. So the discussion about the best asset-haven is not over yet.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The calendar for the upcoming week is filled with information for fundamental analysis specialists. Although, as for the Eurozone, the forecasts do not promise anything good in advance. It is expected that the indicators of the indices that characterize the state of the business environment in Germany and the eurozone – ZEW on Tuesday, February 18 and Markit on February 21 – will be lower than the previous ones. The report on the ECB meeting on February 20 may add to the pessimism. All this can lead to further losses of the euro against the US dollar. Positive news from the front of the fight against coronavirus will be able to turn the trend up, but it is still difficult to predict anything here.
100% of the trend indicators on H4 and D1 are colored red. 65% of oscillators look down as well. The targets are 1.0700 and 1.0525; However, the remaining 35% of the oscillators are already in the oversold zone, which is a very strong signal for a possible upward trend reversal. Or, at least, for a serious correction, which, according to the indications of the graphical analysis on H4, can return the pair to the 1.0900 zone, and, perhaps, bring it closer to the 1.1000 mark.
At the moment, only 40% of experts vote for the pair's growth, however, when switching to the monthly forecast, their number increases to 65%;

- GBP/USD. It is possible that in addition to the resignation of Chancellor Sajid Javid, the UK is able to present other surprises in these difficult times. As they say about Brexit, the farther into the forest, the thicker the trees. For now, the picture looks like this. Trend indicators on H4 indicate: up 95%, down 5%, on D1 up 75%, down 25%. Oscillators: on H4, 90% is green, 10% is overbought, and on D1, it is a complete mess. Analysts do not have any clear point of view, although, when moving to the medium-term forecast, most of them (65%) side with the bulls. The nearest bullish target is 1.3200, the resistance levels are 1.3070, 1.3115 and 1.3160. Supports: 1.3000, 1.2970, 1.2940 and 1.2880;

- USD/JPY. After the week-long sideways trend of this pair, there is complete discord among the indicators. As for experts, 70% of them, supported by graphical analysis on H4 and D1, look to the north. According to their scenario, the pair should eventually overcome the resistance of 110.00 and rise another 80-100 points higher. The remaining 30% of analysts remain pessimistic. In their opinion, the decline in the stock market and the yield of government bonds may lead to a fall in the pair to the zone of 109.10-109.30, following supports are 108.30 and 107.65.

– cryptocurrencies. The forecasts of the crypto market gurus are, as usual, overflowing with enthusiasm. The Bitcoin exchange rate will rise to $40,000 within the year, said co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors Tom Lee in an interview with CNBC. He attributed the halving, the coronavirus outbreak, the geopolitical instability, and overcoming the 200-day moving average to the reasons for the cryptocurrency's rise in price. According to Lee, the White House deliberately interfered with the rally of the first cryptocurrency last year. But now the US government is distracted by the election of the new President and will not be able to organize a campaign against Bitcoin.
Anthony Pompliano, partner of Morgan Creek Digital investment company, predicts further growth of the main cryptocurrency as well. He is confident that the explosive growth of the Bitcoin exchange rate will occur due to the growing demand for the asset and its limited issue, resulting in it reaching $100,000 by the end of 2021.
In general, 60% of analysts expect that the BTC/USD pair will break the $11,000 mark in February-March. However, while last week it was only 20% of experts who exclaimed: "Beware of a trend reversal!", now their number has doubled, reaching 40%. Some crypto traders believe that the growth in the value of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, which began in January, is caused by "ghost money". As they say, on certain trading platforms, large orders appear periodically, which are not intended to buy or sell cryptocurrency, but to create the illusion of a demand for the asset. Someone provokes investors to purchase the coin with their help, thereby inflating its price. "You can only push the price so high with the help of "ghost money". At some point, people will want to cash out their crazy earnings, but will not be able to find someone to sell the asset to. This is going to be a show!"- one of the crypto sceptics wrote on Twitter.
And in this situation, the brokerage company NordFX offers probably the best option for trading cryptocurrencies – a kind of contract for the difference in price, without the actual delivery of coins. In this case, when opening long or short positions, you can be sure that even if the price of Bitcoin soars to the skies or, conversely, collapses to zero, you will get your due profit.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

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  #399  
Old 22-02-2020, 14:46
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Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for February 24 - 28, 2020


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The dollar index has already gained 2.5% since the beginning of February, reaching the highest since May 2017. The euro continues to lose ground. Beginning on January 01, the advance of the dollar has weakened the European currency by 440 points. It has lost almost 300 points, or 2.7%, in the last three weeks of continuous decline alone.
Experts have managed to put forward many reasons for what is going on during this time, most often referring to fears about the coronavirus. But even here, when they talk about the same thing, they manage to draw opposite conclusions. As a result, some attribute the dollar to safe-haven currencies, while others, on the contrary, consider it a rather risky asset that will bring losses to investors as soon as the peak of the epidemic is passed and the Chinese economy begins to recover. It is quite possible that this will start to take place in the near future, since the Chinese leadership is applying efforts not only to fight the epidemic, but also to stimulate production and ease the monetary policy. One of these measures was the reduction by the People's Bank of China of the interest rate on the yuan from 4.15% to 4.05% on Thursday, February 20.
We cannot but agree with those experts who believe that the catalyst for the fall of the EUR/USD pair is the weakness of the European economy in the first place and ultra-low interest rates, which make the dollar much more attractive to investors. In addition, the truce in the trade war between the US and China also plays against the Euro.
The majority of analysts (60%) had voted for a further fall in the euro last week, supported by 100% of trend indicators and 65% of oscillators. At the same time, the remaining 35% had already been giving signals the European currency was oversold. If you look at the EUR/USD quotes, they accurately reflect this distribution of forces. At first, the pair went down, and then, starting from the midweek, it moved into a sideways trend, turning the 1.0800 horizon into either support or resistance. The divergence with the readings of many oscillators, such as the MACD, gave long position holders hope for a trend reversal. However, this did not happen, the fall only stopped. And only at the very end of the five-day period, the pair made a sharp jump up, finishing at 1.0848 and thus zeroing out the total result of the week;

- GBP/USD. The UK contributed to the weakening of the EU economy as well: after Brexit, the European Union budget has a deficit of €75 billion, and no one seems to know how to make up for such a serious loss. The British currency itself, unlike the euro, can be said to have stabilized against the dollar and, since the last decade of November 2019, has been moving along the 1.3000 line. The volatility is still quite high (220 points last week), but the pair repeatedly returns to this support/resistance zone.
The bears repeatedly tried to push the British defense in February, lowering the pound below the 1.3000 horizon. The pair even reached the local bottom at 1.2850 last week, but... then it turned around again, rushed up and finished the working week at 1.2960;

- USD/JPY. Giving the forecast for the past week, the vast majority of experts (70%), supported by graphical analysis on H4 and D1, had turned their views to the north. And they turned out to be right: the pair not only broke the landmark level of 110.00, but even without noticing several levels of resistance, soared to the height of 112.20, reaching the highs of April 2019. The main reason is called a sharp drop in interest in the yen as a safe-haven currency, against the background of an improvement in the situation with the coronavirus and, as a result, a turn of the markets towards riskier assets. The actions of the Chinese authorities to support companies affected by the epidemic also played against the yen.
After the pair took the height of 112.00, a correction occurred, and the final chord of the week sounded at the level of 111.60;

– cryptocurrencies. Longhash company has analyzed in detail the data on buying and selling bitcoins over the past two years and has made interesting conclusions. So, the researchers have found that the lowest average price of Bitcoin is observed on Fridays at 6 am GMT. In fact, this means the best time to open long positions. At midnight united time (UTC) on Mondays and Tuesdays, the price of BTC is on average $170 higher than on Fridays. It turns out that Monday or Tuesday is the best time to exit the Friday long or enter a short position until the next Friday (when the price is lower according to statistics).
At the same time, analysts warn that the crypto market is very volatile, so it is unlikely that the results of such a study should be considered investment advice.
And this is a very correct remark, especially if you look at the results of the past week. The price of Bitcoin was really low in the morning of Friday, February 14. And if a trader opened a long position at this point, he or she would have received a good profit by the end of the day. But if they left the position open until Monday, February 17, they would lose a tidy sum, since Bitcoin had fallen by about $600 during this time.
The main cryptocurrency has tried several times to gain a foothold above $10,000 over the past seven days, but to no success. The local bottom of the BTC/USD pair was fixed at $9.290, and among the reasons for this decline are, primarily, the tightening of pressure on Bitcoin by the US authorities, including President Trump, Fed chief Powell and Finance Minister Mnuchin.
It goes without saying that when going down, the main cryptocurrency pulled the top altcoins, including Ethereum (ETH/USD), Litecoin (LTC/USD) and Ripple (XRP/USD), and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index rolled back from the state of "greed" to the state of "fear".


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Global markets are saturated with liquidity, including major currencies. It seems that Central banks know no other way to support the economy than to pump it with cheap money. The US Federal reserve spends $ 60 billion a month to buy bills, the ECB buys securities for 20 billion euros, and the Bank of Japan – for 80 trillion yen. Regulators in other countries are not far behind. And, at the moment when this money appears on the markets, we can observe fluctuations in prices in one direction or another.
The dollar today is a cross between a classic protective and a risky asset. This is due to political factors, the state of the US economy, and the actions of the Federal reserve, whose ability to reduce interest rates is far from exhausted, in contrast to its European and Japanese "counterparts".
All this allows 70% of analysts to count on the continued growth of the US currency and its reduction at least to the zone of 1.0750. It should be noted that the survey was conducted before the pair's short-term rally to the north on Friday just before the markets closed. It is also important that when moving to the forecast for March, the same number – 70% – of experts expect the pair to return to the level of 1.1000.
As for the indicators, if the vast majority of them were painted red in the morning of Friday, February 21, the situation changed radically by the evening and 70% acquired a green color on H4. On D1, however, the advantage still remains with the the bears: 75% of trend indicators and oscillators still point to the south. Nearest supports are 1.0800 and 1.0775;

- GBP/USD. The Pivot Point of the last three months can be considered the 1.3000 horizon, but starting from January 2020, there has been a certain increase in the bearish sentiment. That is why 55% of experts expect that the pair will once again test the previous week's low of 1.2850 and, if successful, will fall another 80-100 points lower. The remaining 45% of experts are expecting the pound to strengthen and the pair to rise to the 1.3000-1.3070 zone. The next target is 1.3120.
There is a complete discord among the indicators on D1 at the end of the week, but on H4, 60% of trend indicators and oscillators indicate the growth of the pair.
The compromise option is offered by graphical analysis on D1, which draws a decline at the end of February to the level of 1.2685, and then a return in the first decade of March, first to the level of 1.3000, and then to the height of 1.3200;

- USD/JPY. It is clear that the vast majority of indicators look up. However, about 15% of oscillators are already sending signals about the pair being overbought. Graphical analysis on D1 shows that the pair will stay in the range 111.25-112.00 for some time at the beginning of the week, after which it will go up to the zone 112.40-112.70.
As for experts, 75% believe that the pair will definitely return to the 109.65-110.25 zone, although this may take two to three weeks. The remaining 25% of analysts are expecting the pair to rise above the 112.40 mark, the target is 113.70;

– cryptocurrencies. The founder and CEO of Galaxy Digital, Mike Novogratz, is convinced that Bitcoin will be firmly fixed at the historical high of $20,000 by the end of 2020. According to the expert, Bitcoin is unstable right now, but it will definitely break the historical high of $20,000 by the end of the year, or at least reach it. This could happen sooner, in a couple of months, thanks to the halving. The emergence of regulated crypto exchanges and the adoption of the asset by conservative institutional investors will also serve as a positive factor for the growth of the first cryptocurrency. In addition, the continued issue of fiat currencies can also play into the hands of Bitcoin. "The main digital asset, just like gold, acts as a hedge asset, protecting investors from inflation and state monetary policy, leading to the depreciation of money," Novograts explained.
An even happier future for Bitcoin is predicted by well-known Bitcoin enthusiast TV host Max Kaiser. He raised his forecast for the price of this cryptocurrency to $400,000 per coin, increasing it by four times at once. Participating in the Infowars news show, Kaiser said that his previous prediction in 2012 of $100,000 is now too conservative.
In general, 70% of experts remain optimistic, expecting to see Bitcoin in the $10,500-11,000 zone within the next few weeks. The remaining 30% of experts call the level of $8,000 as the lower bar for the fall of the BTC/USD pair.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Old 27-02-2020, 10:24
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Default Re: NordFX.com - ECN/STP, MT5, CQG, Multiterminal broker

NordFX Social Trading Service, Affiliate Program, and Investment Funds Receive More Awards for 2019


Trading on the financial markets is becoming more dynamic, and competition is constantly growing, requiring brokers to make non-standard, innovative solutions in a variety of ways. In this situation, it is encouraging that all the main trends in the development of the NordFX broker company in 2019 have received the highest rating from the Forex and crypto communities.

Recall that at the end of last year, NordFX already became:
- "Best Cryptocurrency Broker 2019" according to the Fxdailyinfo portal,
- winner of the IAFT Awards in the category " Best Broker of Asia 2019»,
- winner of the titles "World Best Broker" and "Traders' Choice World Best Broker" in 2019 from the MasterForex-V Academy,
- NordFX's two-tier partner program was noted as outstanding at the Saigon Financial Education Summit.

But the number of awards does not stop there. Due to the effectiveness and popularity of its affiliate program, NordFX broker company gets the Best Affiliate Program prize by the Forex Awards in the corresponding category, for the second year in a row.


Forex Awards is a team of professionals headquartered in Hong Kong, which, since 2010, has been specializing in the analysis and evaluation of business companies, identifying their most powerful and attractive sides. Its experts make regular ratings, and also determine the winners in about 30 categories, taking into account the opinions of both experts and the wide trading community. Therefore, another award received by NordFX from the Forex Awards for the best social trading platform is a significant assessment of the broker's efforts in this direction which is very important for traders and investors.

A fairly new trend in the line of services that the company offers to its clients is NordFX Investment Funds, which allow investors with very modest capital to invest profitably in shares of the world's largest companies. Following the results of 2019, these funds have brought their investors profit from 19.8% to 47.5% per annum in US dollars, which is ten times higher than the income from bank deposits.

Thanks to these outstanding results and professional management of the assets, according to the results of voting at the AtoZ Markets Service Providers Awards website in February 2020 NordFX has been awarded yet another award, becoming the winner in the category Best Managed Account Platform. It should be noted that the opinion of visitors to this portal, whose number is about 700,000 people a year, has also played a decisive role here.


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