[COLOR="Green"]UBS: USD/CAD will rebound to C$1.0379[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at UBS AG in Zurich believe that the greenback that dropped by 1.2% versus its Canadian counterpart this month will manage to compensate October’s losses. Such forecast is based on the “morning star” reversal pattern formed on the price chart and confirmed on October 15. This upside signal will be negated only if US dollar’s rate gets below C$0.9981.
The specialists expect US dollar to add 3.3% against loonie climbing firstly to C$1.0379 and then potentially C$1.0509. According to them, momentum for the pair USD/CAD is quite bullish.
Last Thursday US currency hit the minimal level since April 26 at C$0.9981.
UBS strategists advise investors to buy dollars this week when the pair retreats to support level at C$1.0080.
[COLOR="green"]Aviva Investors: euro will finish the year at $1.45[/COLOR]
Analysts at British insurance company Aviva Investors managing about $371 billion assets claim that the single currency will rise to $1.45 by the end of 2010.
The specialists suppose the fact that euro managed to gain 19% versus the greenback advancing from its 8-year minimum hit at the beginning of June means that the European Central Bank was quite successful in stabilizing financial markets.
Such estimate for euro’s future rate is higher than the median forecast of 44 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, according to which the pair EUR/USD will be at $1.33 by the year-end.
Aviva strategists underline that the ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet noted that the exit from emergency stimulus measures won’t be slowed down.
Last week the yield spread between Greek 10-year government bonds and similar German debt got below 700 basis points for the first time since June. In addition, the ECB’s financing of Portuguese credit institutions decreased by 19% in September, while the financing of the Spanish ones – by 11%.
[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: USD/CHF will reverse only above 0.9731[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that the greenback keeps trading within 3-month downtrend channel versus Swiss franc.
The specialists note that US dollar will be able to reverse the current descending trend only if it manages to break above 0.9731.
If American currency strengthens, resistance for the pair USD/CHF will be found at the minimum of the middle of September at 0.9932.
[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: US dollar may fall to 80 yen[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank note that extremely narrow trading range that we observed yesterday seems to be a ‘triangle’ consolidation within a steep ‘channel’.
The specialists believe that the 9-day MA that approached the current levels that act as a resistance capping the pair USD/JPY. According to them, US dollar may still get lower this week to 81.00 and then to 80.00 even though it’s oversold.
Mizuho strategists advise investors to take shorts at 81.50 stopping above 82.25.
[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: pound may fall to $1.5665[/COLOR]
British pound went down from the multi-month maximum at 1.6100 to the uptrend line from the minimums of the middle of September. Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that sterling is moving down to the 1.5755 area that is the key level to confirm a top.
The specialists believe if the pair GBP/USD doesn’t manage to hold above 1.5755, it would start declining towards 1.5705 (support line from June to October) and 1.5665 (55-day MA).
According to Commerzbank, as long as pound’s rate stays below resistance levels at 1.6001 (August peak) and 1.6009 (last week’s maximum), the prospects for the pair will remain negative.
[COLOR="green"]BNP Paribas: G20 will help to ease currency tensions[/COLOR]
Analysts at BNP Paribas SA in London believe that the chances that G20 meeting will bring positive results on international currency issues have increased.
The specialists note that the International Monetary Fund uses its influence to convince G-20 participants that an agreement is a must.
In addition, the specialists note that the amount of asset purchases that is going to be announced next month by the Federal Reserve will show how ready is the US to reach out to China and avoid the currency war.
G-20 Summit will take place on 11-12 November in South Korea.
[COLOR="green"]On-line analytics from FBS always is available on: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets [/COLOR]