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Old 06-09-2023, 10:18
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VolkovYuriy VolkovYuriy is offline
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Dear clients,

Ratings agency Moody's on Friday raised its forecast for U.S. economic growth in 2023 but lowered its outlook for China next year, noting that while the risk of a U.S. recession has declined, China's problems are mounting.

"We have raised our forecast for U.S. economic growth to 1.9% in 2023 from 1.1% in our May forecast, recognising the strong underlying economic momentum," Moody's said in a report.

The agency, which is currently the only Big Three agency still holding a "AAA" rating for the U.S. after a downgrade by Fitch last month, maintained its 2024 economic growth forecast at 1%, saying high interest rates will drag on the economy.

"We believe it will be difficult for the Fed to achieve a sustained decline in inflation to the 2.0% target while current economic conditions persist," Moody's said in a statement. "In our view, several quarters of below-trend growth are needed to prevent overheating."

On the other hand, the agency said China faces "significant growth challenges" stemming from weak business and consumer confidence amid economic and political uncertainty, ongoing problems in the real estate sector and an aging working-age population.

Moody's maintained its growth forecast for this year at 5%, but cut its 2024 outlook to 4.0% from 4.5% previously. China's rating is at A1 with a stable outlook, four notches below the U.S.' top rating.

"Data from China suggest that the economic recovery from the prolonged zero-rate policy remains muted, as the momentum for renewed growth seen in March, April and May appears to be waning," Moody's said in the report.

"We believe low consumer confidence is restraining household spending, and economic and political uncertainty will continue to weigh on business decisions."


Dear clients,

Asian stocks fell on Tuesday as weak service sector data renewed fears of a faltering post-pandemic Chinese economy.

The MSCI was down 0.65% at 511.63, moving away from 515.37, the highest level since 11 August, which it reached on Monday.

Futures indicated that the gloomy mood is likely to spread to Europe, with the Eurostoxx 50 futures down 0.21%, Germany's DAX down 0.20% and the FTSE futures down 0.29%.

The recent rally in Chinese equities, fuelled by a series of government measures aimed at supporting the weakening economy, is quickly fading. The CSI 300 blue-chip index fell 0.58% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.5% after these markets recorded their best day in over a month on Monday.

Optimism quickly faded after a private sector survey on Tuesday showed that China's service sector activity grew at the slowest pace in eight months in August as weak demand continues to haunt the world's second-largest economy and stimulus measures failed to significantly revive consumption.

Nevertheless, investors are hopeful that Beijing's drip-feed of stimulus will be enough to stabilise the Chinese economy.

In a rare piece of good news for China's crisis-hit property sector, a source close to Country Garden said the company made interest payments on two dollar bonds just as the grace period was due to end on Tuesday.

On Friday, China's largest private property developer received approval from onshore creditors to extend a 3.9 billion yuan ($536 million) private bond.


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