THE UPSIDE GAME. BUILDING GROWTH OF OIL PRICES
Dear clients,
Oil prices rose on Tuesday as markets weighed on supply cuts in August by leading exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia amid an uncertain global economic outlook.
Brent crude futures were up 34 cents, or 0.46 per cent, to $74.99 a barrel by 0618 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $70.12 a barrel, up 33 cents, or 0.47%.
Saudi Arabia on Monday said it would extend a voluntary production cut of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) until August, the kingdom's state news agency said. Russia will also cut oil exports by 500,000 bpd in August, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said.
The cuts would amount to 1.5% of global supply and bring the total number of cuts promised by OPEC+ oil producers to 5.16 million bpd, as Riyadh and Moscow seek to support prices.
US crude stocks were expected to fall by around 1.8m barrels in the week to 30 June, marking the third consecutive week of decline. Industrial stockpile data will be released on Wednesday and official data on Thursday, both of which will be delayed by a day due to a US holiday.
On the macroeconomic front, analysts' forecasts were mixed after business surveys showed a decline in global manufacturing activity due to sluggish demand in China and Europe, and US manufacturing activity fell further in June, reaching levels last seen during the initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.
WRITE CLUB. NEW MESSENGER FROM META
Dear clients,
Mark Zuckerberg on Wednesday directly challenged Twitter with the Threads service, amassing millions of users in a matter of hours, as it seeks to take advantage of the position of its competitor, which is in a significantly weakened state after a series of chaotic decisions by its owner Elon Musk.
"Let's do this. Welcome to Threads," Zuckerberg wrote in his first message on the app, along with a fiery emoji. According to him, 5 million people signed up to the app in the first four hours. Analysts say Threads' tie-up with Instagram could give it a built-in user base and advertising machine. This could siphon off advertising dollars from Twitter at a time when its new CEO is trying to revive its struggling business.
Although Threads launched as a standalone app, users can log in using their Instagram credentials and follow the same accounts, potentially making it an easy addition to the existing habits of Instagram's more than 2 billion monthly active users. According to experts, investors can't help but get excited at the prospect of Meta actually having a "Twitter killer".
Like Twitter, the app contains short text messages that users can tag, repost and reply to, although it does not have the ability to send direct messages. Messages can be up to 500 characters long and include links, photos and videos lasting up to five minutes, according to Meta's blog.
Meta shares rose 3% on Wednesday ahead of the launch, outpacing the rise of rival tech companies.
BITCOIN SUPPORT FUND
Dear clients,
Bitcoin reached its highest level in 13 months on Thursday, rising 3.28% to $31,500.
The world's largest cryptocurrency recently found support thanks to plans by fund managers, including BlackRock — the world's largest asset manager — to launch a US-registered spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).
Nasdaq has reapplied to list BlackRocks' ETF, according to a statement released on Monday, after the US securities regulator raised concerns about the initial applications.
The US Securities and Exchange Commission has rejected about 30 applications for exchange-traded funds over the past decade. However the BlackRock Inc. initiative has ignited interest, and a flurry of new applications and amendments to existing offerings has followed.
TRADING SIGNALS: NFP FOR JUNE
Dear clients,
On July 7, the Non-farm Payroll, a measure of US industrial employment, is expected to be published. The report greatly influences the movement of American dollar and related instruments.
We will find out what figures are expected this time from our expert:
Strong employment growth in the service sector — the biggest contributor to the US economy — signals positive Non-Farm Employment data, which is favourable for the American dollar and negative for equity indices, as it leaves the Fed with no choice but to continue its policy of raising interest rates. On Friday consider buying USDZAR, USDCHF and selling AUDUSD, XAUUSD, #SP500, #NQ100.
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