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Old 31-10-2021, 12:14
StanNordFX StanNordFX is offline
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USD/JPY: The Yen Has Its Own Path


Charts from the past two and a half weeks show that the upward momentum has dried up for USD/JPY as well. Only if, in the case of GBP/USD, the dollar has been weakening against the pound since the end of September, on the contrary, it has been strengthening against the yen.

The Japanese currency is a safe haven currency for investors. And its recent weakening fits logically into a stable inverse relationship between the yen rate and the growing risk appetite of the market. It should also be added that another trigger for the yen's weakening was the shift in Japan's trade balance towards imports, due to a spike in energy and metal prices. And, of course, one cannot ignore such an important factor influencing the USD/JPY quotes as the yield of US Treasury bonds. However, it is also directly related to the market's risk-aversion.

USD/JPY upgraded its four-year high on October 20 to reach 114.70 high, the very point where it was in November 2017. After that, the enthusiasm of the bulls subsided, and the pair went down, ending last week at 113.95.

At this stage, 70% of analysts expect the pair to first return to the 113.00 horizon, and then drop to the 111.00-112.00 zone by the end of November. The remaining 30% of experts adhere to the opposite point of view, expecting the next update of multi-year highs and the rise of the pair to the range 115.00-116.00.

The resistance levels are 114.35, 114.70 and 115.50, the long-term target of the bulls is the December 2016 high of 118.65. The nearest support levels are 113.85, 113.40 and 113.25, then 112.00 and 111.65.

As for the events of the coming week, the release of the report of the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Tuesday November 02 could be noted. However, it is likely the market will react to it fairly calmly. Especially since this event will take place just one day before the US Fed meeting, which will be the focus of all investors and speculators.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Ethereum Renews Its High

The historical record of $66,925 set by bitcoin on October 20 has not yet been broken. The imminent correction that followed taking that height brought forward a fierce bull and bear fight. The forces proved to be about equal. As a result, after swaying in the $57,590—63,645 range, the pair returned on Friday October 29 to roughly where it had been seven days earlier, to the $62,000 zone. The total crypto market capitalization is also unchanged at $2.6 trillion, but bitcoin's share has decreased somewhat: its dominance index has dropped from 45.94% to 44.15%. This was due to capital flows into altcoins, primarily ethereum, which rose from 18.72% to 19.61% over the week. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is still in the Greed zone at 70 points (75 weeks ago).

Most analysts believe that the upward trend of the BTC/USD pair will continue. This is supported by statistics. Coin outflows from the exchanges have resumed, according to Glassnode. Bitcoin network hash rate has almost recovered after China's mining ban, which caused it to drop by 50%. At the same time, bitcoin supply is quite low: miners and investors are holding their reserves in the expectation of further price growth.

The macroeconomic background is also favourable. The New York Stock Exchange continues to list bitcoin-related ETFs. True, there is information that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is likely to reject Valkyrie's application to launch a leveraged ETF. Other of the 40 filings currently under consideration by the SEC, apart from applications to launch ETFs on bitcoin futures, will not receive the green light either. But those that will be approved are quite enough to ensure a solid inflow of funds into this sector from investors saving their capital from inflation.

The good news for BTC is that payments giant Mastercard will soon announce cryptocurrency support on its network. This includes bitcoin wallets, credit and debit cards, and loyalty programs where points can be converted into digital assets.

The American company Walmart Inc., which operates the world's largest wholesale and retail chain, has also turned to the main cryptocurrency and launched a pilot program to sell bitcoins in its stores.

Crypto trader and analyst known as Altcoin Sherpa is confident that bitcoin will not fall below the $54,000 zone where the strong support is located and, pushed back from it, will update its historic high in November, exceeding $80,000.

Another prominent analyst, PlanB, also expects a parabolic increase in the price of bitcoin. As a reminder, PlanB is the creator of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, which predicts the price of the flagship cryptocurrency, and which allowed it to accurately predict BTC prices in August and September. And if bitcoin continues to follow this model, it will reach $98,000 in November and $135,000 in December. “So, it's going to be a really good Christmas this year,” declared PlanB. At the same time, the expert believes that the flagship cryptocurrency is unlikely to be able to avoid another major correction that historically follows each major bull cycle.

Another popular cryptanalyst and trader Lark Davis expects that “the next six months are likely to be mega-crazy for bitcoin and cryptocurrencies! Many of you will get the chance to completely change your financial destiny,” he tweeted.

Davis does not advise investors to get carried away with speculative altcoins and NFTs in the current situation, but to bet on time-tested coins. “Let the winners win, double and even triple your positions and cut the losers. Do it mercilessly, there is no point in keeping dubious assets,” writes Lark Davis.

In his view, BTC could increase investor savings by 20 times over the next 10 years, but individual altcoins could generate comparable returns much sooner. “Altcoins are for making money, BTC is for storage,” the expert explains.

The leading altcoin seemed to have heard Lark Davis's words. While bitcoin was hovering around $60,000-61,000, ethereum renewed its all-time high, peaking at $4,447 on October 29. The previous record of $4,360 was set back in May.

The ETH/USD pair is bursting up for the fifth week in a row, having added more than 65% since September 21. The reason for this growth is the coin-burning process that takes ETH tokens out of circulation. Another factor that pushed this altcoin up was the news of the successful start of the Ethereum 2.0 Altair update for the Beacon Chain, which brought the moment of the full launch of ETH 2.0 even closer.

And another piece of news that will be of interest for those who think not only about their future, but also the future of their children and loved ones. Russian insurance company Renaissance Life and InDeFi SmartBank have started jointly developing smart contracts to help inherit digital assets. With the growth of the cryptocurrency market, the problem of inheriting such property has become quite acute. Since cryptocurrencies are decentralized, in the event of the death of the owner, the heirs simply cannot dispose of the property of the deceased without access to the cryptocurrency wallet. Smart contracts under development should solve this problem by enabling the client to transfer the disposal of digital assets to their designated heir in the event of their death.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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