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Old 26-02-2021, 19:06
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KostiaFM KostiaFM is offline
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Default Re: Daily Market Analysis by ForexMart

Brent. February 26, 2021 – «Black gold» is losing ground

The oil market began to correct: Brent quotes fell on Friday to $64.90 per barrel. Earlier, oil strengthened amid comments from the Fed about keeping interest rates at extremely low levels for a long time, until the regulator sees a noticeable improvement in the situation in the US economy. Additional support for oil quotes was provided by signs of recovery in energy demand, as well as a reduction in oil reserves in the United States. Since the peak levels of US crude oil inventories in June 2020, they have dropped by more than 90 million barrels, according to the latest figures from the US Department of Energy.

However, despite the positive external background, Brent still started to decline. The sell-off was driven by a general deterioration in market sentiment, which triggered a risk aversion for investors. Additional concerns are raised by the upcoming OPEC+ meeting next week, which is expected to change oil production quotas from April. Experts predict that the organization could discuss an increase in production by 500 thousand barrels per day.

It is worth noting that at the upcoming meeting, Saudi Arabia may announce the cancellation of the unilateral commitment to further cut production. And this could return another 1 million barrels of oil a day to the market. Thus, under these conditions, the decline in «black gold» may continue to $60 per barrel.

EUR/USD. February 26, 2021 – Euro fell to the level of 1.2100

On Friday, the euro began to correct, falling to the level of 1.2100. The dollar was supported by macroeconomic statistics from the United States: data on the volume of orders for durable goods in January reflected an indicator growth of 3.4% y/y, expecting an expansion of 0.9% m/m and the previous fact of a rise of 0.5% m/m.

GDP statistics for the IV quarter came out neutral: the economy grew by 4.1% against the forecast of growth by 4.2% and the previous estimate at 4.0%.

Positive news came from the employment market as well. The weekly report on the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States reflected a decrease in the indicator to 730 thousand against last week's data at 841 thousand and forecasts of about 828 thousand.

Today you should pay attention to the parameters of personal expenses and income of Americans for January. In terms of income, an increase of 9.4% is expected. In addition, the final value of the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for February will be published. If the data does not disappoint again, the dollar will continue to strengthen.
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