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Old 14-01-2021, 12:51
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Default Re: Tickmill UK Fundamental Analysis

USDJPY and Biden fiscal plans

There was only a brief pause of stocks in terms of bullish headlines from the US government: starting from the last week, we observe development of the store with a new aid package from the Democrats who have finally grasped full power. The size of the expected support is being revised very quickly: last week Goldman estimated the amount of stimulus at $750 billion (of which $ 300 billion will be distributed in the form of stimulus payments), then there were estimates at $1 trillion, $1.3 trillion, and before Biden's today's address to the Americans, the markets are already talking about $2 trillion. Of course, this story roots out any possibility for USD to strengthen and puts pressure on Treasury prices as the market expects a huge portion of the fresh bond supply.

Inflation in the US accelerated in December from 1.3% to 1.4% on an annualized basis, however, as we discussed earlier, the market is not surprised by this acceleration. The acceleration of inflation in the coming months is already reflected in the market inflation premium in bond yields. Comparing the yields of inflation-protected and inflation-unprotected 10-year Treasuries, it is clear that the market expects nothing in terms of interest rates, but expects in terms of inflation:

TIPS yield has changed marginally since October 2020 however 10-year bond yield has more than doubled, from 0.5% to 1.15%.

Weak inflation dynamics would have added weight to the dollar, however, the report played against it.

It was interesting to see the data on the Japanese economy for November and December. As it turned out, the economy was better at weathering through the pandemic crisis in the fourth quarter than previously thought. In general, Japanese assets and the yen look undervalued now, because in general, Japan has grown poorly in the past decade, forcing the Bank of Japan to manipulate rates (not very successfully by the way). Due to the long history of stagnation, investors could be biased about Japanese assets. In terms of data, the key for Japan industrial sector showed good activity in December - industrial orders grew by 1.5% against the forecast of -6.2%. Manufacturing inflation also accelerated - up to 0.5%, ahead of the forecast of 0.2%. If the Biden administration manages to push through the Congress new fiscal stimulus (most likely), one of the main foreign beneficiaries of this event will be Japan, which usually outperforms, but only in the early stages of global reflation. This was the case after the 2008 crisis, when the strengthening reached 80 yen per dollar.

Speaking of USDJPY, from a technical point of view, we are approaching the upper border of medium-term downward channel. Based on the bet that the pair will remain the channel (on the basis of fiscal spending outlook for the US), potential reversal zone could be located in the range 104.50-104.70:

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