[MikhailLF]

Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

EUR is falling against USD during today's Asian session, again consolidating near local highs, updated in the middle of last trading week. The pressure on EUR remains amid the ambiguous prospects for the global economy, which faced a second wave of COVID-19 and a number of restrictions imposed mainly by European countries. Macroeconomic statistics on business activity in the eurozone released last Friday were disappointing. Markit Services PMI in October declined from 48 to 46.2 points with the forecast of the decline to 47 points. At the same time, Manufacturing PMI for the same period increased from 53.7 to 54.4 points, which turned out to be better than the forecasts of growth to 53.1 points. The Composite PMI in October fell below the psychological level of 50 points to 49.4 points, which, in general, was in line with market expectations.

GBP/USD

GBP is trading with negative dynamics against USD since the opening of a new trading week, developing a fairly strong "bearish" momentum, which was formed in the middle of last week. The instrument almost completely ignored the strong UK Retail Sales statistics released on October 23. The data reflected Retail Sales growth by 1.5% MoM in September after rising by 0.9% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected a slowdown in the index to 0.4% MoM. On an annualized basis, sales rose by 2.7% to 4.7% YoY, which was also better than average forecasts of 3.7% YoY. Business activity statistics were significantly worse. Markit Manufacturing PMI fell in October from 54.1 to 53.3 points, which was only 0.2 points better than market expectations. Services PMI fell from 56.1 to 52.3 points with the forecast of falling to 54 points.

AUD/USD

AUD declines against USD during today's morning session, correcting after an uncertain rise in the instrument at the end of the last trading week. The pair is under pressure from the corrective growth of USD, while the fundamental picture of the market changes insignificantly. AUD also reacts sluggishly to the macroeconomic statistics from Australia released on Monday. Exports from Australia increased by 3% in September after falling by 4.2% in the previous month. Imports for the same period fell by 1% after rising by 2% in August. Such a significant discrepancy between the dynamics of imports and exports led to an increase in the trade surplus almost doubled, from AUD 2.643B to AUD 5.114B. Today, investors are focused on statistics from the United States on the dynamics of New Home Sales and Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September.

USD/JPY

USD has shown strong gains against JPY during today's Asian session, preparing to test the strong resistance at 105.00. Moderate support for USD is provided by the macroeconomic statistics from the US on business activity published at the end of the last trading week. Markit Manufacturing PMI in October showed a slight increase from 53.2 to 53.3 points, which fell slightly short of market expectations. In turn, Services PMI for the same period increased from 54.6 to 56 points, while analysts did not expect any changes in the indicator at all. Markit Composite PMI in October rose from 54.3 to 55.5 points.

XAU/USD

Gold prices show flat dynamics during today's morning session, consolidating near 1900.00. The instrument has been declining since last Thursday, when USD managed to show corrective growth in response to mixed messages regarding the new economic stimulus package in the US. After repeatedly saying that it would be extremely difficult to reach an agreement before the November US elections, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced "significant progress" on the deal and said new measures could be approved "very soon". The presidential elections in the United States will take place next week, on November 3.