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Old 22-07-2019, 06:58
MikhailLF MikhailLF is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2017
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Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

Morning Market Review
2019-07-22 08:23 (GMT+2)

The euro fell markedly against the US dollar on July 19, leveling off growth the day before. Technical factors contributed to the weakening of the instrument, while the macroeconomic background remained controversial. On Friday, the euro was pressured by a weak data on production inflation in Germany. In June, the producer price index fell by 0.4% MoM after falling by 0.1% MoM last month. YoY, the index slowed down from 1.9% to 1.2%, below market expectations of 1.4%. In turn, the dollar reacted negatively to the speech of Fed representative James Bullard, who spoke in favor of a strategy of rapidly lowering interest rates, which would allow avoiding the development of another economic crisis. Investors saw in these words hints of a possible reduction in the interest rate at the end of July. Today, the instrument shows ambiguous dynamic, awaiting the appearance of new drivers in the market. Investors are focused on the Bundesbank monthly report, as well as the publication of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for June.


The pound showed a corrective decline against the US dollar on Friday, departing from the local highs updated on July 15. On Friday, the British currency was pressured by disappointing data on the dynamics of public sector borrowing. In June, net borrowing increased from 3.822 to 6.500 billion pounds, which was significantly worse than market expectations of 3.200 billion. The June budget deficit was the most significant in the last 4 years, which is very alarming, considering that the country is on the threshold of Brexit. Investors continue to follow the election of the Prime Minister. According to available data, Boris Johnson is still the leader of the race. The results of the election of the new leader of the Conservative Party and the Prime Minister of Great Britain will be known this week.


The Australian dollar retreated from local highs against the US dollar on July 19. The decline of the instrument was technical in nature, while the macroeconomic and news background remained ambiguous. Further growth of the Australian currency is hampered by the lack of progress in the US-China trade negotiations. Despite the optimistic start, at present, the parties have not been able to achieve any progress, and the market does not seem to really believe in a favorable outcome of the event. Today, the pair is trading in both directions, and AUD expects new drivers to appear on the market.


The US dollar showed growth against the Japanese yen on July 19, departing from local minima updated the day before. The development of upward dynamics in the instrument was facilitated by relatively weak macroeconomic publications from Japan. Investors were disappointed with data that indicated a slowdown in consumer inflation. The Tokyo consumer price index excluding the price of fresh food in June expectedly slowed down from 0.8% YoY to 0.6% YoY. The indicator excluding energy prices, increased by 0.5% YoY, which turned out to be weaker than the forecast of 0.6% YoY. The activity index in all industries in May slowed down from 0.8% MoM to 0.3% MoM, which, however, turned out to be better than expectations of −0.2% MoM. Today, the pair continues to develop upward dynamics. At the beginning of the week, investors are focused on the speech of the head of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda.


Oil prices rose slightly on July 19, corrected from local minima, updated the day before. Moderate support for quotes was provided by the US reports on the destruction of the Iranian drone in the Gulf of Mexico, which again heightened tensions in the Middle East. Additional support for the prices was provided by speeches of Fed representatives who favored a rapid reduction in interest rates. Finally, the published Baker Hughes report on active oil platforms in the United States reflected a reduction in the number of drilling rigs from 784 to 779 units.
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