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Old 15-07-2019, 07:41
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Default Re: - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 15th July 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th June 2019.

* Trade warring and slowing global growth have set the scene for a possible earnings recession, which could catalyze a risk-off phase in global markets. Therefore next week’s inflation data out of some of the major economies, Australia’s employment report and China’s 2Q19 GDP report could be the highlights in the coming week. Another focus is the upcoming Q2 corporate earnings season, which will get into gear next week with “show and tells” from the banking sector.

Monday – 15 July 2019

* China Gross Domestic Product (CNY, GMT 02:00)- Chinese GDP is projected to see additional moderation to a 6.2% y/y pace in Q2, from the 6.4% y/y growth rate in Q1. The economy has grown at a 6.2% pace so far in 2019, while it was at a 6.6% pace for all of 2018, leaving the slowest growth rate since the 3.9% clip in 1990. It grew 6.8% in 2017.

* Consumer Price Index (NZD, GMT 22:45) – New Zealand inflation is expected to rise by 1.7% y/y in Q2, edging higher than the 1.5% observed in Q1.

Tuesday – 16 July 2019

* Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The RBA has already cut rates to record lows and comments from the central bank governor yesterday didn’t sound as though the bank was readying further easing at the moment. Minutes are expected to shed further light regarding future easing stance.

* Average Earnings (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Average Earnings excluding bonus for May expected to slightly increase at 3.2% from 3.1% last month.

* ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Economic Sentiment for July is expected to be released at -19.0 compared to -21.1 last month.

* Retail Sales and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) – 0.2% June retail sales gains are expected for both with and without autos, following 0.5% May gains for both measures. Unit vehicle sales ticked down to a 17.3 mln pace in June from an upwardly-revised 17.4 mln clip in May, and gasoline prices should provide a drag on retail activity given an estimated -3.5% figure for the CPI for gasoline. Real consumer spending is expected to grow at a 3.9% rate in Q2, following the 0.9% Q1 clip.

Wednesday – 17 July 2019

* Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 08:30) – May CPI came in on the nose at 2.0% y/y, ebbing from 2.1% y/y in April and marking a return to the upper bound of the BoE’s target. Next week’s reading for June is expected to remain unchanged. The same stands for core CPI.

* Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The Euro Area CPI for June is expected to hold steady at 0.3% m/m, with the headline inflation at 1.2% y/y unchanged from the previous month. Still, as the weakness in manufacturing is now starting to reach the labour market, this means the prospect that underlying inflation pressures will build up soon look slim. This will keep the ECB on course for additional easing measures, unless there are major breakthroughs on the US-Sino trade and the Brexit front.

* Consumer Price Index and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) – CPI is expected to decline at a 2.1% y/y pace in June.

* Housing Data (USD, GMT 12:30) – Housing starts should slow to a 1.260 mln pace in June, after a dip to 1.269 mln in May. Permits are expected to improve to 1.300 mln in June, after rising to 1.299 mln in May. Overall, we see a stronger trajectory for starts with a positive but slower pace for permits, as starts play catch-up with the higher permits trajectory.

Thursday – 18 July 2019

* Employment Data (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Australian labour market data is expected to deteriorate, as the employment is anticipated at 10K from 42.3K in May.

Friday – 19 July 2019

* Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (USD, GMT 14:00) – The main US consumer confidence index is expected to ease to 93.0 in March, compared to 93.8 in February.

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Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst

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