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Old 15-07-2019, 07:16
MikhailLF MikhailLF is offline
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Default Re: Forex News Analysis by LiteForex

Morning Market Review
2019-07-15 08:22 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

The euro maintains an upward trend against the US dollar. On July 12, the single currency managed to strengthen amid the publication of good macroeconomic statistics from the Eurozone. Industrial output in May rose by 0.9% MoM after declining by 0.4% MoM last month. Analysts expected growth of only 0.2% MoM. The indicator accelerated the decline from −0.4% YoY to −0.5% YoY, which, however, turned out to be significantly better than forecasts of −1.6% YoY. More confidently strengthening of the instrument was hampered by previously published data from Germany. The wholesale price index in June showed a decline of 0.5% MoM after rising by 0.3% MoM last month. Investors predicted the growth of 0.2% MoM. YoY, the index growth slowed down from 1.6% to 0.3%, which also turned out to be significantly worse than analysts' expectations of 1.3%.

GBP/USD

The pound showed quite an active growth against the US dollar on Friday, updating local highs of July 5. There were none interesting macroeconomic statistics from the USA and the UK, so the focus was on existing factors. However, investors followed the speech of the representative of the Bank of England Gertjan Vlieghe, who allowed the possibility of a sharp reduction in interest rates by the regulator, if the government fails to approve the agreement on Brexit. Today, the instrument is trading with moderate growth, preparing to update the previous local maxima. Strengthening of the pound is not hampered by weak data from the UK. The Rightmove house price index in June showed a decline of 0.2% MoM and 0.2% YoY after rising by 0.3% MoM and 0.0% YoY in May.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar showed strong growth against the US one on Friday, rising to the highs of July 5. The reason for the strengthening of the instrument was the correctional dynamics of the US currency. Ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from China and the United States hampered a more confident growth of the “Australian”. Today, the instrument is supported by strong data from China. Retail sales in June rose by 9.8% YoY after rising by 8.6% YoY last month. Analysts were expecting a slowdown to 8.3% YoY. The industrial output for the same period increased by 6.3% YoY after rising by 5.0% YoY in May. In Q2, China's GDP accelerated from 1.4% QoQ to 1.6% QoQ (with a forecast of 1.5% QoQ).

USD/JPY

The US dollar showed a steady decline against the Japanese yen on Friday, updating local lows of July 5. It is curious that this happened amid the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan. In May, industrial output in Japan slowed down from 2.3% MoM to 2.0% MoM. YoY, the decline in production increased from −1.8% to −2.1%, which turned out to be worse than market expectations. Today, the pair is trading in an uptrend. Japan's markets are closed on Monday to celebrate the Marine Day, so statistics from China and the United States remain in the spotlight. Chinese data on GDP, retail sales, and industrial output were stronger than forecasts, which contributed to the growth of investor interest in risk. With the opening of the American session, investors are awaiting the publication of the index of the July Manufacturing PMI from the New York FRB.

Oil

Oil prices are consolidating near local highs, updated at the end of the week. Quotes are supported by a reduction in the production of some US manufacturers in the Gulf of Mexico due to a tropical storm. On the other hand, investors were disappointed with the published report of the International Energy Agency. According to it, further growth in production in the USA will contribute to the growing imbalance of supply and demand in the market. The IEA expects a decline in oil demand by 2020 to a record level since 2003. Additional support for quotes was provided by Baker Hughes report on active oil platforms in the USA published on Friday. During the week, the number of drilling rigs decreased from 788 to 784 units.
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