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Old 08-07-2019, 11:53
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Default Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

USD/CAD: Current Dynamics
08/07/2019

Unexpectedly strong report on the US labor market for June reduced the likelihood of aggressive easing of the Fed's monetary policy. According to the US Department of Labor, the number of new jobs outside of agriculture in the country in June amounted to +224,000 (against +72,000 in May and the forecast of +165,000 jobs).
Prior to the publication of the report, investors took into account the lowering of the rate at the July Fed meeting by 50 basis points at once. Now investors take into account the 98% probability of lowering interest rates by 0.25% at the Fed meeting on July 30 - 31, according to the CME Group.
This week, investors will follow the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at congressional hearings. If he points out that the Fed will adhere to a softer policy by the end of the year, the dollar will again come under pressure.
On Wednesday (14:00 GMT), the Bank of Canada will decide on the interest rate. It is widely expected that the Bank of Canada at this meeting will leave rates unchanged (at 1.75%).
This is a positive factor for the Canadian currency against the background of the fact that other major central banks are easing their monetary policy.
Also, the Canadian dollar will receive support from the expected increase in oil prices after last week OPEC announced the extension of the transaction to restrict production for 9 months.
Thus, most likely, the pair USD / CAD will retain a tendency to decline.
Last month, USD / CAD broke through the key support level of 1.3260 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) and continues to decline in the downward channel on the daily chart.
Downward trend prevails. The targets for the decline are the support levels of 1.3015, 1.2850 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart), 1.2740 (Fibonacci level 38.2% of the downward correction to the growth of the pair in the global uptrend since September 2012 and 0.9700).
Consideration of long positions can be returned after the breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1.3109 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) with the goal at the resistance level of 1.3260. More distant growth targets after the breakdown level of 1.3260 are at resistance levels of 1.3520 (2019 highs), 1.3660 (2018 highs), 1.3790 (2017 highs).
Support Levels: 1.3045, 1.3015, 1.2850, 1.2740
Resistance Levels: 1.3109, 1.3260, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790

Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 1.3055. Stop Loss 1.3115. Take-Profit 1.3045, 1.3015, 1.2850, 1.2740
Buy Stop 1.3115. Stop Loss 1.3055. Take-Profit 1.3200, 1.3260, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790


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