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Old 04-07-2019, 11:59
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Default Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

XAU/USD: Current Dynamics

At the beginning of the European session on Thursday, the XAU / USD is trading near the mark of 1415.00 dollars per ounce, which is 25 dollars less than the annual maximum of 1440.00 reached at the end of last month. On Wednesday, the XAU / USD pair attempted to update this almost 6-year high on expectations that the Fed could lower its interest rate in July (July 30 - 31).
On the eve of the US President Trump again hinted at the need for a cheaper dollar. He wrote in his Twitter feed that “China and Europe are playing a big game, manipulating currencies, and pumping money into their system to compete with the United States. We must respond accordingly or stay in the cold, who sit and politely watch other countries play their games, as they have been doing for many years”.
On Thursday, the XAU / USD again decreases slightly, and trading volumes are falling. In the US today is the day off on the occasion of the celebration of Independence Day.
Now investors are focused on the publication on Friday (12:30 GMT) of data from the US labor market.
On Wednesday, less optimistic macro data from the USA was published. Thus, the number of jobs in the US private sector in June increased by only 102,000, while economists expected it to increase by 135,000.
Orders for industrial goods in the United States in May decreased by 0.7% compared with the previous month and amounted to 493.57 billion US dollars. This was also reported Wednesday by the US Department of Commerce.
If data from the US labor market also turns out to be weak, then this will increase the likelihood that the Fed will soon reduce the interest rate, which is a strong negative factor for the dollar and a positive one for gold.
As a rule, when the Fed raises the interest rate, the price of gold decreases because it does not bring investment income, and the cost of its acquisition and storage increases.
In the opposite situation, i.e. with the easing of the monetary policy of the Fed and the growing uncertainty in the financial markets, as well as political or trade conflicts, the demand for gold and its price increase, which we observe in the current situation.
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Thus, in spite of the fact that gold is trading at multi-month highs, it’s too early to talk about stopping price growth and demand for it.
The price has broken the important resistance level of 1380.00 last month (Fibonacci 38.2% level of the correction to the wave of decline since September 2011 and the level of 1920.00). The breakdown of the resistance level of 1485.00 (50% Fibonacci level) will confirm the completion of the corrective decline and the resumption of price growth.
Predominantly strong positive momentum, pushing XAU / USD to new annual highs.
An alternative scenario implies a resumption of dollar growth and a decline in XAU / USD to a key support level of 1298.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
Break of the key support level of 1298.00 will resume the bearish trend, which began in 2012 near the mark of 1795.00. Further targets for the decline are at the support levels of 1200.00, 1185.00, 1160.00 (the minimum of 2018).
Support Levels: 1402.00, 1380.00, 1357.00, 1346.00, 1323.00, 1310.00, 1298.00, 1278.00, 1268.00, 1253.00
Resistance Levels: 1424.00, 1440.00, 1485.00

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 1398.00. Stop-Loss 1424.00. Take-Profit 1380.00, 1357.00, 1346.00, 1323.00, 1310.00, 1298.00
Buy Stop 1424.00. Stop Loss 1398.00. Take-Profit 1440.00, 1485.00

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