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Old 28-06-2019, 12:08
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Default Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

EUR/USD: pending new drivers

Eurodollar rose at the beginning of the European session on Friday. According to the data presented, consumer price indices (CPI) in Italy and France rose in June and were better than forecast. The core consumer price index published at 09:00 (GMT) also showed an increase in consumer inflation in the Eurozone (+1.1% in annual terms, against the forecast of +1.0% and against +0.8% in May).
After the publication of data, EUR / USD rose by 30 points, to the level of 1.1392. The CPI is a key indicator of inflation and an indicator of changes in consumer trends. The high value, as well as the growth of the rate is a positive factor for EUR.
However, EUR / USD was not able to develop an upward trend above 1.1392. Inflation in the Eurozone is still at extremely low levels, well below the target level of the ECB, set at just below 2.0%. Eurozone's core consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.2% in June compared with the same period last year, after a 1.2% increase in May. This is a negative factor for the euro. It is possible that the ECB, at a meeting on July 25, will take additional measures to stimulate the economy.
On Friday, investor attention will be focused on the G-20 leaders meeting in Osaka. Investors are waiting for a shift in the trade confrontation between the United States and China towards a new trade agreement. Probably, trading in financial markets in anticipation of the outcome of the meeting will be held in the range.
If the meeting of Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, which is scheduled for Saturday, ends in nothing, then most likely the global stock indexes will react with a fall, and the demand for defensive assets will rise again. Then the Fed will be forced yet to begin easing monetary policy, which will cause a further weakening of the dollar.
Meanwhile, EUR / USD spent the current week in the range between the local resistance level of 1.1410 and the support level of 1.1355 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).
The signal for movement in one direction or another will be the breakdown of one of the range boundaries (levels 1.1410, 1.1355).
The reduction targets are located at support levels of 1.1285 (Fibonacci 23.6% of the correction to a fall from 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.1275 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.1180 (June lows), 1.1125 (minimums of the year); growth targets - at the resistance level of 1.1600 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).
Support Levels: 1.1355, 1.1285, 1.1275, 1.1180, 1.1125
Resistance Levels: 1.1410, 1.1510, 1.1600

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 1.1340. Stop-Loss 1.1420. Take-Profit 1.1300, 1.1285, 1.1260, 1.1180, 1.1125
Buy Stop 1.1420. Stop-Loss 1.1340. Take-Profit 1.1445, 1.1510, 1.1600

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