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Old 06-06-2019, 12:42
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Default Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

EUR/USD: Current Dynamics
06/06/2019

As expected by many market participants, the European Central Bank on Thursday left interest rates unchanged. In a statement following the meeting on Thursday, the ECB confirmed its intention to leave the key rate at the current level of -0.40% at least until the end of the year and continue to reinvest the income from bonds into the debt portfolio.
The euro reacted quite restrained to this news, while the EUR / USD pair rose only by 38 points, to the level of 1.1272.
Now market participants will closely follow the speech of the ECB President Mario Draghi at the press conference, which will begin at 12:30 (GMT). Draghi will present new forecasts by ECB economists, which may reflect lower expectations for economic growth next year. He will also present the conditions of a new long-term lending program for banks.
With the escalation of risks to the global economy, the uncertainties associated with Brexit and the situation in Italy and after the recent elections to the European Parliament, Mario Draghi can still allow the ECBs softer monetary policy to be possible in its speech.
If he gives a signal in this direction, the euro may sharply decline, despite its restrained reaction after the ECB published its decision on interest rates.
Also at this time (12:30 GMT) data on the balance of foreign trade, non-agricultural labor productivity and applications for unemployment benefits in the United States will be published. Positive statistics from the US can give a positive impetus to the dollar and negatively affect the dynamics of EUR / USD. And, conversely, weak macro data from the United States will put pressure on the dollar.
Meanwhile, after the publication of the ECB decision, the DXY dollar index dropped another 18 points to 97.00, while the EUR / USD pair is trading near the 1.1262 mark.
Below the resistance levels of 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.1315 (EMA144), 1.1365 (EMA200 on the daily chart), long-term negative dynamics prevail.
After the breakdown of the local support level of 1.1200, a further weakening of EUR / USD with targets located at the support levels of 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000 is likely.
Support Levels: 1.1200, 1.1180, 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000
Resistance Levels: 1.1285, 1.1315, 1.1365

Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 1.1190. Stop Loss 1.1280. Take-Profit 1.1180, 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000
Buy Stop 1.1280. Stop-Loss 1.1190. Take-Profit 1.1315, 1.1365



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