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Old 23-05-2019, 10:35
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NZD/USD: Current Dynamics
05/23/2019

NZD / USD is developing a downward dynamic, actively declining over the past two months. In May, the NZD / USD pair received an additional negative impulse after the RBNZ meeting and after the publication on Wednesday of the minutes of the May Fed meeting.
As is known, at the beginning of the month, the RBNZ reduced the interest rate by 0.25% to 1.5%. In a related statement, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr pointed out that "there is uncertainty about the prospects for the global economy and concerns about trade remain". According to him, “inflationary pressure will grow only slowly”. The forecast for the rate of RBNZ also lowered to 1.4%. Many economists believe that another reduction in the rate of the RBNZ may occur already this year.
At the same time, the Fed leaders are still refraining from changes in monetary policy. This became clear from the minutes from the May Fed meeting, published on Wednesday. "Many participants in the meeting made it clear that their fears from the beginning of the year, to some extent, weakened", the protocols said.
Thus, amid the difference in monetary policy between the Fed and the RBNZ, as well as the trade conflict between the United States and China, a further reduction in NZD / USD with the immediate goal located at the support level of 0.6830 is likely. The farther target of the decline is at the support level of 0.6260 (Fibonacci level of 0% and the lows of the global wave of the pair's decline from the level of 0.8800, which began in July 2014).
The signal for the development of an alternative scenario will be the breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 0.6636 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), which may cause an increase to the resistance level of 0.6710 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).
Further growth is unlikely. Predominantly strong negative impulse. Below the key resistance level of 0.6755 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), short positions are preferable.
Support Levels: 0.6430, 0.6400, 0.6300, 0.6230
Resistance Levels: 0.6500, 0.6535, 0.6580, 0.6623, 0.6710, 0.6755, 0.6800, 0.6855, 0.6940

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 0.6620. Stop Loss 0.6670. Take-Profit 0.6600, 0.6575, 0.6510, 0.6430
Buy Stop 0.6670. Stop Loss 0.6620. Take-Profit 0.6700, 0.6745, 0.6780, 0.6800, 0.6935, 0.6980, 0.7060


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