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Old 03-02-2014, 14:49
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Default Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

EUR/USD: what do the banks say?

We have searched for the fresh EUR/USD recommendations from the major banks and here’s what we’ve found.

Bulls

Nordea: Keep EUR/USD long (from $1.3450), next support area $1.3380/1.3450. Stop loss is at $1.3340, while take profit is at $1.3850. The ECB won’t cut rates, reasons plentiful: the labor market has turned the corner, the credit impulse turned up and the lending survey tone positive, the PMIs and other sentiment/survey data have improved, market-based inflation expectations are rocks solid even with the softer headline CPI.

Bears

SEB Bank: Short-term the minor consolidation since Friday afternoon is seen soon breaking down to a fresh low in the $1.3440/50 area.

JP Morgan: The ongoing straight attack and break below the support at $1.3507/06 to challenge $1.3436 which upon its break would open the way for a deeper decline. Only above $1.3506 would temporally keep the door open for another corrective leg up to $1.3802.

Barclays Capital: Consider selling EUR/USD as a tactical trade to position for the ECB meeting this week. Target is at $1.3400. The ECB will cut rates either in February or in March. Euro will fall anyway.

Danske Bank: We would not be surprised to see such a move and continue to see downward pressure on both EUR/USD that fell below 1.35 on Friday and EUR/GBP the next couple of days

Commerzbank: It’s likely to sell off further towards initially the 200-day MA at $1.3376. We have a minor support en route at $1.3423, the 78.6% retracement of the move up from November. Very near term we would allow for a small near term rebound, however intraday rallies should now find resistance at 1.3525/55. Above $1.3640 the key resistance is the $1.3740/46 recent high and Fibo retracement.

TD Securities: EUR/USD short-term view is bearish, with a potential target of $1.3174 achievable.
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