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  #221  
Old 03-06-2017, 16:56
Julia's Avatar
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Default Re: NordFX.com - ECN/STP, MT5, CQG, Multiterminal broker

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 05 - 09 June 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- The previous forecast for EUR/USD turned out to be quite accurate when it came to trends, but the pair’s volatility turned out to be more modest than expected. Recall that 60% of experts predicted the pair’s decline to 1.1075; the pair did indeed start its descent on Monday but turned northwards when it was still 30 points away from target. This turn of events had been supported by 40% of analysts, who had expected that against the background of negative data for the dollar stemming from the NFP (survey of employment in the US outside the agricultural sector), the pair would soar to 1.1400 by the end of the week. The forecast came true only partially: the pair did go up, but ended the five-day period at 1.1280, without having reached 1.1300;

- GBP/USD. Recall that the forecast, supported by most experts (80%), said that the pair would rise after it reached support at 1.2755 in an attempt to break through the resistance at 1.3050. The bearish side of the forecast was true. The strength of the bulls, however, was clearly overrated. As expected, the pair found its minimum at 1.2765. When it pushed away from it, though, it rose only by 165 points to 1.2920. After this, the bulls’ strength dried up, which allowed the pair to slip into a sideways trend that anticipated the parliamentary elections on 8 June;

- USD/JPY. Here, the most accurate forecaster was graphical analysis. According to its readings, the pair was supposed to decline to 110.85 (it actually fell to 110.50), before growing to the resistance at 111.90 (it grew to 111.70). The pair reacted to the NFP data by having the dollar fall 140 points. As a result, it managed to return to the week's minimum in the 110.40 zone;

- Almost 70% of experts expected that USD/CHF would once again test the support of 0.9690. The test did happen and the pair managed to pass it, having mirrored the performance of EUR/USD. As a result, USD/CHF managed to break this support following the release of the NFP data, completing the week session at the level of 0.9625.

***
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from a number of banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. It is clear that, in the case of EUR/USD, the pair is not considered overbought: only 5% of oscillators on H4 and D1 say it is. Almost all indicators vote for the growth of the pair, naming the resistance level at 1400 and the May 2016 maximum of 1.1600 as the two main targets. And as for graphical analysis on H4, its readings suggest that in the next few days the pair may fall to 1.1100. Moreover, about 70% of experts insist on the pair's decline.
It should be noted that, in the medium term, the number of supporters of a EUR/USD decline has already reached 85%. This decline is expected to be into the 1.0900-1.1000 zone;

- As for the future of GBP/USD, here, unlike the previous pair, the indicators do not agree: about a third of them advise buying the pair, a third suggest selling, and the rest have simply taken a neutral position. Graphical analysis on D1 draws a side channel of 1.2770-1.3050 for the pair. What is obvious, however, is that none of these methods of technical analysis are able to factor in the occurrence of snap parliamentary elections in Britain on Thursday, 8 June. But it is these very elections that will determine how Brexit will pan out.
Judging by analysts' forecasts, they do not expect anything good for the pound. For starters, almost 90% of them expect this pair's decline in June, first to the support at 1.2765, and then even lower to 1.2600;

- USD/JPY. After the fall of this pair by 140 points on Friday, 2 June, about 20% of oscillators indicate it is oversold and advise opening long positions. Graphical analysis on H4 agrees with this. It does not exclude, though, that the pair may first descend to the support at 110.00; only after this would it allow the bulls to take the upper hand and push it to 111.00.
Giving the forecast for the next few weeks, about 85% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, expect the pair to grow to 112.00-114.30;

- The last pair of our review is USD/CHF. If you look at the readings of graphical analysis on H4, you will expect the pair’s dizzying take-off to the 1.0000 zone in the next few days. Whilst analysts generally agree with this, their forecast looks much calmer. Only 50% think the pair will return to 0.9760 in the next five days. Meanwhile, more than 90% of them believe that until the the pair will still be able to win back the May losses by mid-summer, returning to the landmark level of 1.0000.
In the case if the dollar, thanks to the Donald Trump’s administration, it remains under pressure: the pair may fall to the zone of 0.9540. The next support is at 0.9475.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options
www.nordfx.com
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  #222  
Old 11-06-2017, 10:40
Julia's Avatar
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Default Re: NordFX.com - ECN/STP, MT5, CQG, Multiterminal broker

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 12 - 16 June 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- Let us recall that in the forecasts regarding EUR/USD, most experts (70%), supported by graphical analysis on H4, spoke about the possible decline of the pair to 1.1100. The forecast proved correct, with the pair having lost about 120 points in the course of the week. However, it ended up being 65 points short of the named target, having only managed to reach 1.1165 before turning and arriving at 1.1195;

- It is clear that the behavior of GBP/USD last week was determined by the snap parliamentary elections in the UK, the outcome of which was quite unexpected and rather unpleasant for the governing Conservative Party. Note that the forecasts of financial analysts we published last week turned out to be much more accurate than any voting polls. Recall that our experts expected the fall of the British pound first to 1.2765 and then to the support at 1.2600. Allowing for standard error adjustments, this is exactly what ended up happening: on Friday, the pair reached the local bottom at 1.2633, after which it gained back just over 100 points. It finished the five-day period in the 1.2740 zone;

- USD/JPY. Last week, we were unable to give a clear-cut forecast for this pair. The scenario closest to reality turned out to be that described by graphical analysis, which talked about an initial fall of the pair to the support at 110.00 (in reality, this level ended up being 109.10), and then a reversal and subsequent growth to 111.00 (in reality, the growth was to 110.80). The net movement following the week’s activity is virtually zero: the pair finished almost at the same level, where it started;

- USD/CHF. Boiling down the results of technical and fundamental analysis last week, in general, the leanings of both indicators and analysts were bullish: everyone expected the pair to grow. The question was only about how much the pair would actually grow: whether sharply to the landmark level of 1.0000, or more modestly to 0.9760. The pair, as expected, departed northwards. However, it struggled to cover as little as 100 points, reaching only 0.9725 by Friday. After this, the strength of the bulls dried up, and the pair slipped to 0.9690.

***
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from a number of banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. On one hand, last week the pair reached a powerful support level of 1.1165, which was followed by a small rebound. This, however, begs the question of whether this rebound represents 1) a shift of a bearish trend to a bullish one, or 2) a mere correction after which the pair's downward movement will continue.
Both trend indicators and the oscillators on D1 have taken a neutral stance. As for the graphical analysis on H4, it insists the pair will rise and return to the 1.1240-1.1285 zone.
Experts have taken a diametrically opposite position: 70% of them, supported by graphical analysis on D1, believe that the pair will continue moving southwards, dropping first to the 1.1000-1.1100 zone and then to 1.0825.
And, of course, we mustn’t forget that on Wednesday, 14 June, the US Federal Reserve is expected to decide on the interest rate. The forecasts do not anticipate anything extraordinary to happen, but if a rate increase (or even a hint at a future increase) occurs, one should expect a stormy market reaction which may make the dollar seriously strengthen its position;

- As for the future of GBP/USD, technical analysis is still sidelined by politics and what will happen in the UK’s power structures in the coming days.
As for the graphical analysis on D1, it predicts an initial growth to 1.2980 and then a drop first to 1.2770 and then to 1.2650. Indicators and almost 85% of analysts agree with this, believing that by mid-summer the pair should drop to 1.2550;

- USD/JPY. This week, experts, graphical analysis and indicators demonstrate extraordinary unanimity. For the next few days, they expect a sideways trend in the 110.25-111.00 range. In the longer term, the pair is expected to rise to 112.00. It should be noted that in the medium term, more and more people are expecting the pair to grow. Currently, only 50% of analysts support a short term bullish scenario, whilst in the medium term this number already exceeds 75%.
An alternative, bearish point of view is represented by a mere 25% of experts who point to a local minimum in the 109.00 zone. Just one analyst believes the pair will fall to the April low at 108.00;

- The last pair of our review is USD/CHF. Graphical analysis shows the continuation of its movement in the descending channel that had started in the beginning of 2017. This channel is clearly visible on the D1 and W1 charts. According to this forecast, the pair has now launched off the lower border of the channel (0.9610) and started an upward movement to its upper limit (0.9910). The main resistance on this path is 0.9810. Almost 85% of analysts agree with this. However, as usual, the pair’s behavior is largely dependent on what happens with EUR/USD;

To conclude the forecast, we believe it worthwhile to recall that, in addition to the aforementioned US Fed rate decision on 14 June, similar decisions of the Bank of Switzerland and the Bank of England are expected on Thursday, 15 June and the Bank of Japan on Friday 16, June.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options
www.nordfx.com
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  #223  
Old 18-06-2017, 09:42
Julia's Avatar
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Default Re: NordFX.com - ECN/STP, MT5, CQG, Multiterminal broker

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 19 - 23 June 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- It had been clear that the main moves for EUR/USD would begin on Wednesday 14 June, when the US Federal Reserve would officially announce a rate increase. Everyone was ready for this. What no one was expecting though was the sharp drop of the dollar 5.5 hours before this event. Taking advantage of negative data on the US consumer market, large speculators pulled the pair up by 100 points. As a result, the Fed's statement could only return it to the original value of 1.1200. However, the "bears" did not calm down there, and on Friday the pair reached the local bottom at 1.1130, after which it again returned to where it started the week: namely in the 1.1200 zone;

- As for GBP/USD, as expected, technical analysis proved useless last week. The pair made variously directed fluctuations with an amplitude of 100-150 points for the whole week, which were caused both by political factors and by the rate decisions of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. Even though the latter left rates unchanged at 0.25%, it should be noted that instead of the expected seven members of the Monetary Policy Committee, only five voted for this decision. Three, wanting to stop the pound falling (or, perhaps, fearing the appearance of another George Soros), spoke in favor of raising the rate. We can infer from this that it is possible that the financial policy of Great Britain will face serious changes soon, with these changes being related primarily to the capital outflow and the terms for the country's withdrawal from the EU;

- USD/JPY. We can say, albeit rather liberally, that the forecast for this pair turned out to be correct. Recall that at the beginning of the week we expected the pair to move in a sideways trend in the range of 110.25-111.00 the range turned out to be 110.15-110.50). As a local minimum, experts had indicated 109.00 (the pair dropped to the level of 108.80), and the height of 112.00 was named as the maximum (the pair reached 111.40). As for the results of the week, it ended at the medium-term Pivot Point 110.85, along which the pair has been moving since mid-May;

- USD/CHF. As expected, the pair carefully copied all movements of the EUR/USD during the entire week, although it did this with less volatility. Thus, whilst the maximum fluctuation range of the euro/dollar was 165 points, for the Swiss franc it did not exceed 130.

***
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from several banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The only ones who took a neutral position this week were trend indicators: their votes on H4 and D1 were split approximately 50/50. As for the oscillators and graphical analysis, almost all of them point southwards. Almost 75% of experts agree with this view of events, considering that the pair will first fall to the support at 1.1100, and in the medium term even lower into the 1.0800-1.0900 zone. 1.1300 is indicated as the main resistance;

- As for the future of the GBP/USD, there is no unanimity among the indicators. H4, trend indicators, oscillators and graphical analysis all insist on buying the pair; D1 indicators suggest selling. In general, a fairly wide side corridor appears within the boundaries of 1.2580-1.2970. The picture among analysts, though, is quite different: the overwhelming majority of them (70%) have sided with the "bears", believing that the nearest target for the pair will be the 1.2600-1.2700 zone. The next target is 1.2400. The voices of the bulls’ supporters this week are very weak, and they all point to the May maximum at 1.3050;

- USD/JPY. 90% of experts believe that the uptrend for this pair is not yet complete, and it should necessarily try to break through resistance at 112.00. Graphical analysis on H4, as well as about 70% of indicators, agree with such developments. However, it should be noted that almost a quarter of oscillators indicate this pair is overbought. The main support in case of a fall is in the 109.00 zone;

- The last pair of our review is USD/CHF. Here, almost all indicators have turned green. Recall that, having fought off the lower border (0.9610) of the medium-term descending channel, which began at the very beginning of 2017, the pair started approaching the center. Now almost 80% of analysts and almost the same proportion of technical analysis instruments expect its further growth. The nearest resistance is 0.9810, the upper limit of the channel is 0.9910. However, almost 90% of experts do not exclude that the pair will not stop at this height and will soon overcome 1.0000.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options
www.nordfx.com
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  #224  
Old Yesterday, 17:59
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Default Re: NordFX.com - ECN/STP, MT5, CQG, Multiterminal broker

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 26 - 30 June 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast: the holiday season is approaching, which may be the cause of the diminishing stream of significant economic events. This necessarily affects the volatility of the major currency pairs, which have come close to the targets indicated by analysts, without having successfully overcome them.

- Thus, last week, the maximum range of the EUR/USD fluctuations hardly exceeded 90 points. Recall that 75% of our experts had assumed that the pair should descend to the support at 1.1100. Allowing for the standard backlash, that was what happened: the week's low was fixed at 1.1118. However, the bears' strength then dried up, and the bulls returned the pair to the same place from where it had started the five-day period;

- Regarding the GBP/USD, recall that 70% of analysts had voted for the fall of the pair, whilst technical analysis had determined 1.2580 as the local minimum. This forecast turned out to be correct, and by the middle of the week the pair had actually fallen to 1.2587. Then, just as in the case of EUR/USD, the trend reversed and the pair retreated north, returning to Pivot Point of the last two weeks in the 1.2715 zone;

- The USD/JPY. The basic forecast, supported by 90% of experts, graphical analysis and 70% of indicators, had suggested that the pair would certainly try to break through the 112.00 resistance. This is what happened in reality: at the very beginning of the week’s session, the pair rushed upwards and, flying up 100 points, quickly reached 111.77. It then rolled back a bit, after which it tried to conquer the treasured height three times. However, after all these attempts were exhausted, the pair retreated downwards by 50 points and finished the week at 111.27;

- However, the forecasts for the future of USD/CHF have not been fulfilled. The pair’s uptrend was expected to continue, which would have carried it to at least the resistance of 0.9810. However, the pair stayed in the side channel of the last five weeks - 0.9620-0.9770 - and completed the week session near its central line in the 0.9695 zone.

***
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from a number of banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. As for indicators, about 90% of them look to the north on H4. But with the transition to a larger D1 time frame, the forecast changes to neutral. Moreover, almost a quarter of the oscillators already show that this pair is overbought, thereby recommends to sell. The graphical analysis on D1 and about 70% of analysts also agree with this, pointing to a possible fall of the pair first to 1.1100, and then even lower to the 1.0850-1.0960 area.
Speaking about the very near future, on Monday 26 June, the release of positive data on the US consumer market is expected, which may help strengthen the dollar. However, it may take the pair anything from one to several weeks to achieve these goals.
An alternative point of view sees the growth of the pair first to the resistance of 1.1285, and in the event of a breakthrough, even higher, bringing it to the 1.1400 region. However, in the medium term this forecast is supported by less than 10% of experts;

- As for the future of GBP/USD, here, too, most analysts are set to sell this pair. But a majority as obvious as the one for EUR/USD is nowhere to be seen: the vote is split 55% / 45%. Trend indicators and oscillators on D1 are on the side of the majority, whilst their "colleagues" on H4 as well as graphical analysis on both H4 and D1 side with the minority.
The nearest target for the bulls is 1.2815, the medium-term targets are 1.2920, 1.2975 and 1.3045. As for the bears, they will try to drop the pair first to the 1.2585-1.2630 region, before carrying it down by another ‘echelon’ to the 1.2365-1.2585 area;

- USD/JPY. The indicators on H4 are much more confident here than on D1. The former believe that the pair will once again try to take the height of 112.00, and this attempt should be crowned with success. Graphic analysis and about 60% of experts agree with this development. At the same time, graphical analysis on D1 indicates that after the pair reaches 112.15, it may roll back to 109.65-110.00;

- and the last pair of our review is the USD/CHF. If last week almost all the indicators were painted green, now many of them have changed to red, insisting that the pair will necessarily test the local minimum of 0.9610 again.
70% of experts, graphical analysis and about half of oscillators on D1 strongly disagree with this forecast. Based on the fact that the pair is oversold, they continue to insist on it moving to the upper boundary of the medium-term downtrend channel at 0.9910, which started early in 2017. The nearest resistance is 0.9810.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options
https://www.nordfx.com/
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