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  #1  
Old 18-12-2013, 14:28
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Default Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

Hello, here is this thread we are going to publish market news and trade recommendations by the leadung FX provider - FBS!

Follow the updates and ask questions. We are here for you!
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Old 18-12-2013, 14:34
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MS: trading on the FOMC

Analysts at Morgan Stanley developed scenarios of the FOMC meeting results and supplied them by the suitable course of actions for traders:

Scenario 1: No major policy changes

Actions: Initially sell USD against most currencies; buy risky currencies vs. JPY. Then start looking for lower levels to buy USD as the QE tapering should take place early next year.

Scenario 2: Some tapering without guidance

Actions: Buy USD vs. risky currencies; cautious about USD/JPY longs as yen will likely strengthen in the risk-off environment.

Scenario 3: Forward guidance

Actions: The stronger the forward guidance is, the better performance MS would expect from currencies which are highly sensitive to rate spreads and less sensitive to risk appetite. If we get forward guidance + tapering, GBP and CAD would outperform on the crosses.
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Old 18-12-2013, 14:39
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GBP/USD: how long will the rally last?

Kira Iukhtenko, FX BAZOOKA analyst


As we expected yesterday, the cable met buyers at the lower boundary of the bearish channel at $1.6230 (this is also the 38.2% Fibo retracement from the $1.5850/6450 rally). On Wednesday GBP/USD jumped to $1.6365 (61.8% Fibo of the recent decline), inspired by the upbeat UK employment figures. Jobless claims in Great Britain contracted by 36.7K in November (forecast: -35.2K; prior revised up to -42.8K). Unemployment rate fell from 7.6% to 7.4%, coming closer to the BoE 7.0% target. BoE meeting minutes brought nothing new except for the words that “further substantial appreciation” of GBP may hurt the economic recovery. However, the market didn’t pay too much attention on that.

The question now arises of whether the GBP rally will survive the Fed’s meeting or not. If the Fed tapers and pushes the greenback up, cable can depreciate. However, the market needs too close below $1.6230/00 area to confirm the top at $1.6465. If the Fed disappoints with QE reduction, we can see a rise towards our initial target of $1.6600 in the medium term.

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Old 19-12-2013, 14:00
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Dec. 19: Asian session

US dollar gave back some of the gains it made yesterday as the Fed said it would start tapering QE.

USD/JPY corrected a bit from more than 5-year high at 104.36, but is still trading above 104.00. Japanese Nikkei share average jumped by 1.5% this morning. Data on Japan buying foreign bonds showed continued outflow of money from Japan.

Australian and New Zealand dollars came under pressure as Fed announced tapering. AUD/USD fell to$0.8820, its lowest level since August 2010, but has recovered some ground later. The pair sits at the $0.8850 August 2013 lows as of writing. NZD/USD fell to $0.8175 despite the better-than-expected New Zealand GDP. NZ economy rose by 1.4% q/q in Q3 vs. expected +1.1% and prior +0.3%.

EUR/USD slipped to $1.3648. GBP/USD is trading in the $1.6370 area after peaking to $1.6484 yesterday.
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Old 19-12-2013, 14:02
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Key currency options (Dec. 19)

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3500 (large), $1.3530, $1.3540, $1.3670, $1.3770, $1.3780;

GBP/USD: $1.6400;

USD/JPY: 103.00 (large), 103.50, 103.70;

AUD/USD: $0.8710 (large); $0.8900 (large); $0.8950, $0.9050 (large);

USD/CAD: 1.0595.
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Old 19-12-2013, 14:05
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Fed announced $10 bln tapering

Farewell surprise from Mr. Bernanke )

The Federal Reserve announced it would cut its monthly bond purchases in January to $75 billion from $85 billion, taking the first step toward unwinding the unprecedented monetary stimulus. “In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions, the committee decided to modestly reduce the pace” purchases, the Federal Open Market Committee said today. The interest rate will remain at record lows at least before the unemployment falls below 6.5%. The Fed has also revised its economic forecasts to the upside.
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Old 19-12-2013, 14:07
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Technicals for majors

EUR/USD

EUR/USD breached support at $1.3705 on the news that the Fed will taper QE.

The pair fell below 55-period MA and is trading in the area of the100-period one. The lines went from rising to the horizontal state.
The prices are at the lower edge of the Ichimoku Cloud ($1.3666) which is currently providing support. Failure here will be a bearish signal. The bullish Cloud itself has dramatically narrowed.
MACD went to the negative territory. RSI is currently signaling oversold.
Support: $1.3666, $1.3648, $1.3625 and $1.3575

Resistance: $1.3705, $1.3740/50, $1.3790


Chart. H4 EUR/USD

Upcoming events:

EUR - 9:00 GMT - Current Account

EUR - All Day - European Council meeting (banking union discussion)

USD - 13:30 GMT - Unemployment Claims

USD - 15:00 GMT - Existing Home Sales

USD - 15:00 GMT - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

USD - 15:00 GMT - CB Leading Index
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Old 19-12-2013, 14:10
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GBP/USD

Market sentiment on the H4 is bullish. Cable is consolidating around $1.6380 after having jumped to $1.6485 post the Fed’s announcement. We remain bullish for the pair as long as it holds above $1.6320.

The cable broke above the bearish channel.
H4 MACD histogram rose into the positive territory (bullish sign).
Cable rose above the 100- and 55- period MAs.
Ichimoku Cloud is also giving out bullish signals.
Support: $1.6340, $1.6300, $1.6230 (38.2% Fibo), $1.6215

Resistance: $1.6435, $1.6465, $1.6500


Chart. H4 GBP/USD

Upcoming events:

GBP - 9:30 GMT – Retails sales

USD - 13:30 GMT - Unemployment Claims

USD - 15:00 GMT - Existing Home Sales

USD - 15:00 GMT - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

USD - 15:00 GMT - CB Leading Index
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Old 19-12-2013, 14:12
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USD/JPY

Bulls have regained control over the pair: USD/JPY rose by almost 200 pips yesterday, touching a new 5-year high of 104.40.The bullish impulse slowed at these levels, resulting in another wave of bearish correction.

• USD/JPY holds above the bullish H4 Ichimoku with Kijun-sen crossing the Tenkan-sen to the upside.

• Supported by the 55-day MA (102.85) and the 100-period MA (102.50).

• MACD histogram rose into the positive territory (bullish sign).

• Sentiment remains bullish as long as the 103.75 support holds.

Support: 103.75, 103.40, 102.50

Resistance: 104.40, 105.00, 105.55


Chart. Daily USD/JPY

Upcoming events:

USD - 13:30 GMT - Unemployment Claims

USD - 15:00 GMT - Existing Home Sales

USD - 15:00 GMT - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

USD - 15:00 GMT - CB Leading Index
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Old 19-12-2013, 14:14
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USD/CHF

Bearish pressure on USD/CHF eased as the pair rose from the 2-year low of 0.8832 to 0.8960.

The pair broke into the wide bearish Ichimoku and is trading not far from the Cloud resistance now (0.8975).
MACD histogram rose into the positive territory (bullish sign).
The price rose above the 55-period MA that acted as a resistance, but met sellers at the 100-period MA
Buyers need a break above the 0.8960/75 resistance to move further
Support: 0.8930, 0.8920, 0.8900

Resistance: 0.8960/75, 0.9000, 0.9030


Chart. Daily USD/CHF

Upcoming events:

USD - 13:30 GMT - Unemployment Claims

CHF - 14:00 GMT - SNB Quarterly Bulletin

USD - 15:00 GMT - Existing Home Sales

USD - 15:00 GMT - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

USD - 15:00 GMT - CB Leading Index
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  #11  
Old 19-12-2013, 14:25
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AUD/USD

AUD/USD renewed this year’s low by sliding to $0.8821. Aussie was already quite oversold, so here we didn’t see such a big decline as in other pairs.

The pair is at the lower Bollinger band and there’s still a small divergence in MACD/RSI, so we expect some correction up.
All MAs are declining that indicates that a medium-term downtrend is well in place.
The prices are below the bearish Ichimoku Cloud. The indicator lines went horizontal, so we may see some consolidation.
Support: $0.8820, $0.8800, $0.8755

Resistance: $0.8880, $0.8900, $0.8970, $0.9000


Chart. H4 AUD/USD

Upcoming events:

USD - 13:30 GMT - Unemployment Claims

USD - 15:00 GMT - Existing Home Sales

USD - 15:00 GMT - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

USD - 15:00 GMT - CB Leading Index
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Old 19-12-2013, 14:29
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USD/CAD

USD/CAD reached the highest level since 2010 at 1.0725. The medium-term uptrend continues.

100- and 50-period MAs turned a bit up. The lines are melded together. So far 50-period MA hasn’t fallen below the 100-period one.
RSI (14) is still in the overbought area above 70. The pair’s above the upper Bollinger band.
The prices rose above the Ichimoku Cloud which has turned bullish. The Cloud, however, is thin and the indicator lines went horizontal.
Resistance: 1.0725, 1.0745, 1.0800 (38.2% of the decline from 2008 to 2011)

Support: 1.0700, 1.0670, 1.0635


Chart. H4 USD/CAD

Upcoming events:

USD - 13:30 GMT - Unemployment Claims

USD - 15:00 GMT - Existing Home Sales

USD - 15:00 GMT - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

USD - 15:00 GMT - CB Leading Index
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  #13  
Old 19-12-2013, 14:31
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Dec. 19: European session

EUR/USD is trading in the $1.3680 area after it tested $1.3648 today. Data from the region are generally good, but the market expects news from the region’s leaders.

European leaders meet
Today is the meeting of the European Council. According to ANZ, there’s “a little bit of event risk tonight in the sense there’s a European leaders summit where they’re supposed to come up with proposals for a banking union. The risk to me is downside in euro for the next 24 hours.” However, German finance minister Schaeuble said that “convincing” agreement is reached on banking union backstop failed banks. Expect more on this topic today.

Euro zone’s current account surplus rose
Euro zone current account balance in Oct +26.2bln vs. +14.2B forecast

Ireland: surprisingly good growth
Irish GDP rose by 1.5% in Q3 vs. 0.7% forecast

German inflation
According to IFW Kiel institute of world economic research, German inflation in 2015 will be 2.5% (higher than the 1.90% forecast). As German policymakers are known for their fear of inflation, they might call ECB for tighter policy (potentially EUR-positive).

Greece: unemployment edged down, but remains high
Greek unemployment 27.0% in Q3vs. 27.1% prior

GBP/USD is consolidating in the $1.6360/6400 range after the yesterday’s post-FOMC jump to $1.6485. UK retail sales rose in line with forecast by 0.3% in November (vs. a 0.9% drop in October).
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Old 20-12-2013, 13:58
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Dec. 20: Asian session

Asian stocks fell, led by Chinese shares amid concern funding costs for the nation’s lenders will remain high even after the central bank injected cash into the financial system. Japanese Nikkei 225 edged down as investors booked profits before the long weekend in Japan.

USD/JPY rose to 104.45. Yen declined after the Bank of Japan kept monetary policy steady and voted unanimously to maintain its pledge of increasing base money, or cash and deposits at the central bank, at an annual pace of 60 trillion yen ($576 billion) to 70 trillion yen. But the BOJ slightly tweaked its view on the outlook to signal that it was mindful of the potential pain on the economy from an increase in the national sales tax in April next year. Investors are now waiting for Governor Kuroda’s comments on how the Fed’s tapering could affect the BOJ's decision on if and when it might next expand stimulus.

AUD/USD tested $0.8889, but then returned to $0.8870. NZD/USD tested $0.8712, but then returned by 20 pips lower.

EUR/USD slid to $1.3631. GBP/USD is trading a bit on the downside, in the $1.6360 area.
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Old 20-12-2013, 14:00
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Key currency options (Dec. 20)

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3600 (large), $1.3645, $1.3650, $1.3770, $1.3775;

GBP/USD: $1.6200, $1.6300, $1.6350;

USD/JPY: 103.00, 103.50, 104.00 (large), 104.25, 104.50, 105.00 (large);

USD/CHF: 0.8875, 0.9020;

AUD/USD: 0.8850 (large), 0.8875 (large), 0.8900 (large), 0.9000, 0.9020, 0.9075, 0.9100;

NZD/USD: 0.8195;

USD/CAD: 1.0700, 1.0775, 1.0800 (large);

EUR/JPY: 142.75;

EUR/GBP: 0.8405;

EURCHF: 1.2220 1.2275.
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Old 20-12-2013, 14:04
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EUR/USD: Ichimoku analysis (Dec. 20)

Daily. Last week the pair once again failed to overcome the $1.3800 figure, which led to a corrective decline to the Tenkan-Kijun channel. Pay attention to Chinkou Span, which at that point was in the overbought area. This was an additional incentive for the short-term trend reversal. Now the prices may test support formed by Kijun-sen (KS) just above $1.3600. After that the bulls may once again take the lead as the indicator’s readings are all in all rather positive.



Chart. Daily EUR/USD

H4. At H4 the pair fell inside the Cloud. The short-term trend became bearish: Tenkan and Kijun are now pointing down (C). However, the Cloud is still bullish. Therefore, after testing the lower boundary ($1.3600), euro can start recovering.



Chart. H4 EUR/USD
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Old 20-12-2013, 14:07
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GBP/USD: Ichimoku analysis (Dec. 20)

Daily. The pair is apparently finishing consolidation. On the daily chart the prices spend a brief time inside the Tenkan-Kijun channel, and by the the end of the week sterling managed to get to positive territory. The prices haven’t even touched Kijun-sen (KS), which shows the weakness of the bears. Note that the indicator is still positive: golden cross (C) is still in place and the Cloud expands upwards.



Chart. Daily GBP/USD

H4. The pair was trading within the Ichimoku Cloud and the market was in the sideways state. Nevertheless, in the second half of the week the pair rebounded from the lower border of the Cloud. If the prices fix above the horizontal Kijun-sen at $1.6350, this can lead to the further strengthening of sterling. Otherwise, the market will have to find support at the $1.6300 handle.



Chart. H4 GBP/USD
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Old 20-12-2013, 14:10
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USD/CHF: Ichimoku analysis (Dec. 20)

Daily. Last week currency pair found support in the 0.8850 area. A"double bottom" was formed on the daily chart and the bulls used it to turn the greenback up. Note the pair was oversold and this contributed to the bullish sentiment. Despite the bearish character of the indicator, the bulls tested resistance of Kijun-sen (KS). A short-term recoil down from here towards the Tenkan-sen in the 0.8915 region looks possible.



Chart. Daily USD/CHF

H4. At H4 the pair broke into the Cloud after some consolidation under the lower border of the Ichimoku Cloud. This breakthrough was rapid and by the end of the week the currency pair reached 0.9000. This is actually bad for the bulls. A sharp increase has led to an overbought market. Also, just above the 0.9000 figure there is a strong resistance level, formed by the upper boundary of the cloud. Consequently, in the near future we expect the pair to turn down from these levels.



Chart. H4 USD/CHF
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Old 20-12-2013, 14:13
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USD/JPY: Ichimoku analysis (Dec. 20)

Daily. USD/JPY continues setting new yearly highs. Although the greenback is strongly overbought, the currency pair is trading above 104.00, in the 104.50 area. All the indicator lines on the daily timeframe are directed upwards, which indicates strong activity of the buyers. The bullish rally may pause around the weekly levels at 105.20 and 106.00.



Chart. Daily USD/JPY

H4. The pair was supported by the Ichimoku Cloud top, and after a brief consolidation above 102.70 US dollar resumed recovery. In general, technical picture is completely in favor of the bulls. Tenkan and Kijun formed a new Golden Cross above the Cloud. The Cloud continues to rise, which also has a positive impact on the long-term market sentiment. Only the fact that the pair is overbought can hinder further growth.



Chart. H4 USD/JPY
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Old 20-12-2013, 14:25
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FX BAZOOKA: technicals (20.12) Part 1

EUR/USD

EUR/USD keeps drifting down. Euro has slid to support at $1.3525. Euro may slide to consolidation area of $1.3620/3520. Data released in Germany was mixed (see the economic calendar).
55-period MA is starting to slope down.
The prices dropped below the Ichimoku Cloud ($1.3666) – a bearish sign. Tenkan-sen (red line) went almost vertically down.
MACD extended down in the negative territory. RSI, however, is currently signaling oversold (below the 30 level).
Support: $1.3625, $1.3613, $1.3600 and $1.3575 (200-period MA)
Resistance: $1.3666, $1.3705, $1.3740/50, $1.3790



Upcoming events:
EUR - All Day - EU Economic Summit
EUR - 10:00 GMT - Italian retail sales
USD - 13:30 GMT - Final GDP
USD - Tentative - Fed Chairman Nomination Vote

GBP/USD

Cable remains in a narrow $1.6335 /1.63875 range for a second day in a row. There are now clear signals on the pair for now. However, we still remain bullish for the pair with a medium-term target of $1.6600 as long as it holds above $1.6320.
The cable consolidates above the bearish channel;
H4 MACD histogram remains in a positive territory, but stopped its rise;
Cable is supported by the 100- and 55- period MAs;
Ichimoku: Kidjun-sen is about to cross Tenkan-sen to the downside (that could become a bearish signal).
Support: $1.6340, $1.6320, $1.6300, $1.6230 (38.2% Fibo)
Resistance: $1.6435, $1.6465, $1.6500



Upcoming events:
GBP - 9:30 GMT - Final Q3 GDP, Current Account, Public Sector Net Borrowing
USD - 13:30 GMT - Final GDP q/q
USD - Tentative - Fed Chairman Nomination Vote

USD/JPY

USD/JPY extended the upside on Friday, hitting a fresh 5-year high of 104.60. Our next target for the pair lies at 105.55.
USD/JPY holds above the bullish H4 Ichimoku with Kijun-sen crossing the Tenkan-sen to the upside;
Supported by the 55-day MA (102.85) and the 100-period MA (102.50);
MACD keeps on rising (bullish sign);
Sentiment remains clearly bullish as long as the 103.75 support holds.
Support: 104.00, 103.75, 103.40, 102.50
Resistance: 105.00, 105.55



Upcoming events:
USD - 13:30 GMT - Final GDP q/q
USD - Tentative - Fed Chairman Nomination Vote
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