Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears with the "Two Black Crows" pushing the price down
6/14/2016



There’s a “Hanging Man” at the local high, which has been confirmed. We haven’t got any reversal patterns so far and that makes bears absolutely free to reach the nearest support line in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’re a “Doji” and a “Two Black Crows” at the last maximum, so the market is likely going to get a support on the 34 & 55 Moving Average lines.



We’ve got a “Harami” and a “Hanging Man” on the upper “Window”, which both have been strongly confirmed by the current decline. Under this circumstances, bears are likely going to move on until any reversal bullish pattern arrives.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9225

[riki143]

GBP/CHF reached sell target 1.3800
6/14/2016

GBP/CHF reached sell target 1.3800
Next sell target - 1.3400
GBP/CHF recently broke though the support level 1.3800, which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of this support level accelerated the C-wave of the active intermediate ABC correction (2) from the end of May (which started when the pair reversed down from the resistance zone surrounding the resistance level 1.4600).

GBP/CHF is likely to fall further to the next sell target at the strong support level 1.3400 (low of the previous primary ABC correction ② and the forecast price calculated for the completion of the active wave (2)).



More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9224

[riki143]

GBP/JPY broke pivotal support level 152.00
6/14/2016

GBP/JPY broke pivotal support level 152.00
Next sell targets - 148.00 and 146.00
GBP/JPY recently broke through the pivotal support level 152.00, which stopped the earlier minor impulse wave (i) at the start of April and which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of this support level continues the active minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (5) from the start of February.

GBP/JPY is likely to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 148.00 – the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward 146.00 (target price calculated for the completion of the active impulse wave (5)).



More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9223

[riki143]

GBP/USD: new low is coming soon
6/14/2016



The price has found a support at 1.4089, which led to the current upward correction. Nevertheless, bears are still powerful, so the market is likely going to break the last low and reach a support at 1.4089 – 1.4036 afterwards. If sellers be stopped here, an upward correction becomes possible.



We’ve got a local flat between the level at 1.4129 and the 34 Moving Average. Therefore, this consolidation is likely going to be ended by the coming bearish movement towards a support at 1.4089 – 1.4039. However, bulls will probably try to set up an upward correction later on, but only if a pullback from the next support happens.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9220

[riki143]

Oil prices have reached two-week low
6/14/2016

Oil prices have reached two-week low on Tuesday, as global fears about Brexit put pressure on risky assets.

According to two opinion polls published on Monday, the supporters of British exit from the EU continued to grow in number ahead of the referendum on June 23.

If the UK leaves the European Union, the recession in Europe may increase. As a result, it might put a pressure on the global economy.

On the ICE futures exchange, Brent crude oil for August delivery reached its intraday low of $49,61 per barrel, the minimum readings since June 3. At 07:55 GMT, the price is $49,68, lower by 67 cents (or 1,33%).

A day earlier in London, Brent futures fell by 19 cents (or 0.38%). Brent prices increased by almost 90% since briefly slumped below $30 per barrel in mid-February. That happened as unplanned supply disruptions from Africa eased concerns over the global oversupply.

Trader will focus on the International Energy Agency monthly report on oil market condition. Their monthly report released on Monday states that OPEC has proven the forecast of world oil reserves growth and demand increase.

WTI crude oil for delivery in July fell by 71 cents (or 1.45%) on NYMEX. WTI was traded at $48 per barrel at the beginning of session and reached its minimum of $48,11 per barrel, the lowest price since June 2.

The oil price in New York lost 19 cents (or 0.39%) on Monday. Genscape industry group reported about the WTI oil reserve growth by 525.000 barrels in Cushing, Oklahoma, last week.

Bidders now focused on the fresh weekly data on oil reserve and oil products. The American Petroleum Institute plans to release its inventory report today. The government data is expected on Wednesday and might show oil reserves reduction by 2.3 million barrels within the week ended June 10.

The U.S. oil futures rose by almost 85%, after slumped up to its 13-year minimum of $26.05 in February. The decline in the US shale oil production improved the market sentiment. However, since the prices reached the profitable level for some companies to start drilling, the number of drilling rigs may grow, and the reduction in the US production may slow down.

According to Baker Hughes, the supplier of oilfield services, the number of drilling rigs in the US increased by 3 up to 328 last week.

The growth in number of drilling rigs in the United States is fueling speculation. The oil production in the country could rebound in the coming weeks, proving oversupply concerns.

Moreover, the spread between Brent and WTI oil grades is $1,51 per barrel, compared to $1,47 at the close time of the previous session.



More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9227

[riki143]

Forex trading plan for June 15
6/14/2016

Risk aversion remained the main driver of the Forex market on Tuesday. US dollar index recovered as the greenback strengthened against the euro, British pound and commodity currencies. US retail sales growth slowed down in May, though the headline reading was a bit better than expected. The market will remain in the situation of uncertainty ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting and press conference at 18:00 and 18:30 GMT on Wednesday. The US will also release data on producer prices, Empire State manufacturing index and industrial production before the meeting results.

Japanese yen is supported by the safe haven demand: USD/JPY is actively testing levels below 106.00 (200-week MA). Downside targets lie at 105.40 and 104.55. Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso once again said that the nation’s monetary authorities will act if the exchange rate moves are too rapid. There’s potential for recovery to 106.75/107.00, but at these levels selling interest will likely renew. The bigger picture for the pair will depend on the outcome of the Fed’s meeting.

British pound is moving in a volatile fashion that requires caution from traders, but the bears seem to dominate. GBP/USD twice found support in the 1.4115 area. A close below this level (even at H1) will open the way down to 1.4035/00. Resistance is at 1.4200 and 1.4300. The UK inflation data released on Thursday were weak. On Wednesday Britain will publish labor market figures at 08:30 GMT.

EUR/USD failed to return above 1.1300 and moved down, despite more positive than expected employment and industrial production statistics from the euro area, as all eyes now are on the US and the market’s risk sentiment. The pair can retest support at 1.1150/00. The decline should be limited as traders await the outcome of the Fed’s meeting.

Negative risk sentiment didn’t let AUD/USD to get higher, though the decline attracted new buyers. Support is at 0.7300 ahead of 0.7260. Increase above 0.7405 is needed to open the way to 0.7450 and 0.7500.

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9228

[riki143]

USD/JPY ahead Fed decision: Strong demand zone in place?
6/15/2016

Today will be released the major economic data of the week at 18:00 GMT, where the US Federal Reserve will decide about to hike or hold the interest rate during this month, which remains at 0.50%. Analysts don't expect, with current US economic conditions, that the central bank will hike the rates in June. Also, in a global overview, with the Brexit referendum to take place next week, Fed could be considering to wait for results before to take any major decision.

30 minutes later, Fed's chairwoman Janet Yellen will speak and possibly, during her speech, US Dollar could take a clearer decision about its direction. At the H4 chart of USD/JPY, there is a key level on place at 105.67, as we see it as a very strong demand area. If Fed's favors a rate hike today, pair can test the resistance level of 107.71, and possibly it could attempt a bullish consolidation above 200 SMA. In a scenario where the officials decide to hold the rates during June, then possibly it could break the 105.67 level, toward 104.72 in a first degree.



More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9229

[riki143]

EUR/USD loses the ground again
6/15/2016

Yesterday's Forex trading session has been noted by severe depreciation of European currency against the American dollar. The EURUSD has lost more than a figure: minimums of the day was going under the 12th figure, to 1.1180/90.

During this time the four-hour Ichimoku indicator also has begun its reconstruction. The cloud which has critically narrowed its range in the descending direction also can join the Dead Cross created by Tenkan and Kijun lines.

At the same time, it is necessary to consider that Chinkou Span is located in the oversold area. Therefore the correctional recovery to the Tenkan line is possible today.

Technical levels: support – 1.1200, 1.1150; resistance – 1.1240/60.

Trading recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.1240; SL — 1.1260; TP1 — 1.1150; TP2 — 1.1115.



More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9230

[riki143]

EUR/USD: two "V-Bottoms" are calling an upward correction
6/15/2016



The price has faced a support at 1.1179, which led to the local upward movement towards a resistance at 1.1219. Nevertheless, the market is likely going to reach the next resistance area between the level at 1.1242 and the Moving Average lines. If a pullback happens afterwards, there’ll be a chance to see a downward movement in the direction of the uptrend’s support area.



As we can see on the one-hour chart, the bearish movement has found a support at 1.1187. So, we’ve got a correction in progress, which is likely going to move on towards a resistance at 1.1242 – 1.1255. However, if we see a pullback from this area, bears will probably try to set up a decline once again.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9232

[riki143]

GBP/USD: bulls are ready to deliver a local correction
6/15/2016



There’s a support at 1.4089, which has stopped bears for a while. So, the market is likely going to get a resistance at 1.4227 – 1.4248. If sellers push off from this area, there’ll be an opportunity to see a decline towards a support at 1.4039 – 1.4003.



We’ve got a local flat in progress between the nearest support at 1.4089 and the 34 Moving Average. Therefore, the market is likely going to get a resistance at 1.4227 – 1.4248 during the day. However, this possible movement will be just a correction, so bears can well bring a new low afterwards.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9233

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Tweezers" has stopped bearish rally. Likely, for a while.
6/15/2016



There’re a “Tweezers” and a “Hammer” at the local low, which both have been confirmed. So, the market is likely going to take through the “Window” paces once again. If a pullback happens afterwards, bears will probably try to move on. As we can see on the Daily chart, the price has reached the 89 Moving Average. Also, there’s a possible “Tweezers” pattern in progress. If it confirms, an upward correction becomes possible.



The pair has been falling down since a “Harami” arrived at the local high. However, we’ve got a “Tower” and a “Tweezers” at the last low, so the price is likely going to get a resistance on the 34 or 55 Moving Average lines. If so, the market is probably going to decline until new bullish patterns form.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9234

[riki143]

USD/JPY: "Window" could force the bullish correction
6/15/2016



We’ve got a bullish “Harami” at the last low, which has been confirmed, so there’s a local correction in progress. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the nearest resistance line, which can reverse the price movement into the bearish direction. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a “High Wave” at the local low, but we haven’t got a confirmation for this pattern. So, bears are probably going to deliver a new low afterwards.



There’re a “High Wave” and a “Harami” at the local low, which both have been confirmed. Also, we’ve got a “Shooting Star”, so bears are still in the game. However, if the nearest local “Window” acts as a support, we could see a new local high very soon.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9235

[riki143]

GBP/CAD reached sell target 1.8200
6/15/2016

GBP/CAD reached sell target 1.8200
Next buy target - 1.8500
GBP/CAD recently reversed up from the support zone lying between the support levels 1.8110 (which stopped the earlier impulse waves 3 and (5) in April, as can be seen from the daily GBP/CAD chart below) and 1.8200 (previous sell target set in our earlier forecast for this currency pair). This support zone was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band.

Given the oversold reading on the daily Stochastic indicator - GBP/CAD can be expected to correct up further in the active minor correction 4 toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.8500 (38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse wave from May).



More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9236

[riki143]

CAD/JPY reversed from strong support level 82.30
6/15/2016

CAD/JPY reversed from strong support level 82.30
Next buy target - 85.00
CAD/JPY recently reversed up from the support zone surrounding the strong support level 82.30 (which had previously stopped and reversed the previous waves (B), (1), B and 1, as can be seen from the daily CAD/JPY chart below). The support zone near the support level 82.30 was further strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band and by the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous primary ABC correction ② from the middle of January.

CAD/JPY is likely to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 85.00 (which stopped the previous waves A, (b) and (2), as can be seen below).



More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9237

[riki143]

USD/CHF & SNB Libor Interest Rate: Another lower reaction?
6/16/2016

Today in Switzerland at 07:30 GMT will be released the Libor interest rate decision and SNB Chariman Thomas Jordan will speak at same time. It's expected that the current negative rates remains unchanged (-0.75% v -0.75%) on this quarterly meeting and the stance from Swiss National Bank to intervene in foreign exchange market when they think it should be necessary will be something that, at least in the short-term, cannot be changed as well.

The technical picture for USD/CHF at daily chart is showing some interesting patterns, as the pair has been reacting to the downside when the SNB meeting is done and as you may see on March 17th, it consolidated below the 200 SMA. Currently, it's facing a strong support zone around the 0.9586 level and while the Fed didn't push lower the pair (CHF strong) enough during wednesday's session, a breakout below the price zone 0.9586 towards the 0.9480 level in a mid-term basis cannot be discarded at this stage yet. However, if Jordan's words are very dovish, then it could rebound to the 50 SMA (0.9742).



More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9238

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Pennant" points to the deeper upward correction



The price has faced a support at 1.1179, so we’ve got a “Double Bottom”, which has been confirmed. So, the market is likely going to get a resistance at 1.1326 in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be a chance to see a decline towards a support at 1.1242.



Bulls have found a local resistance at 1.1282, which led to form the current “Pennant” pattern. Therefore, the pair is likely going to rise towards a resistance at 1.1321 – 1.1325 during the day. However, if a pullback from this area happens, bears will probably try to catch a support on the 55 Moving Average.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9241

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "Triple Bottom" entered the market into the correction phase
6/16/2016



The price has found a support at 1.4089, which brought a “V-Bottom” pattern. So, the pair reached a resistance at 1.4227 afterwards. It’s likely that the market is going to test the last low during the day. If bears be stopped here, there’ll be a chance to see an upward movement in the direction of a resistance at 1.4248.



We’ve got a “Triple Bottom”, which has been confirmed, so the price achieved the 34 Moving Average. Currently, there’s a flat in progress. So, the market is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.4113 – 1.4089. At the same time, if a pullback from this area happens, bulls will do their best to reach a resistance at 1.4227 – 1.4248.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9242

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Three Black Crows" strike an awe into bulls
6/16/2016



There’s an “Engulfing” at the local high, so the market is likely going to reach the nearest support line. If any bullish pattern arrives afterwards, an upward movement in the direction of the last high becomes possible. As we can see on the Daliy chart, here’s a “Tweezers” in the 89 Moving Average, so if it confirms bulls will probably try to continue the current upward correction.



We’ve got a strong support by the upper “Window”, which has brought an “Engulfing” an a “Three Black Crows” patterns, both of them have a good confirmation. Therefore, the pair is likely going to get a resistance on the 21 or 34 Moving Average lines in the short term. If we see a pullback from these lines, bears will have an opportunity to deliver a new low afterwards.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9250

[riki143]

CHF/JPY broke support level 109.00
6/16/2016

CHF/JPY broke support level 109.00
Next sell target - 107.00
CHF/JPY recently broke sharply through the support level 109.00 – which previously reversed the price sharply at the start of June as you can see from the daily CHF/JPY chart below. The breakout of this support level accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the extended intermediate downward impulse wave (C) from May of last year.

CHF/JPY is expected to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 107.00 (forecast price calculated for the completion of the active minor impulse wave 3). Strong resistance now stands at 109.00.



More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9251

[riki143]

USD/JPY broke pivotal support level 105.80
6/16/2016

USD/JPY broke pivotal support level 105.80
Next sell target - 102.40
USD/JPY continues to fall inside the minor impulse wave 3, which is a part of the intermediate downward impulse wave (3) from the end of May. The price earlier broke through the pivotal support level 105.80 (which stopped the previous intermediate impulse wave (1) at the start of May). The breakout of the support level 105.80 greatly intensified the bearish pressure on this currency pair.

USD/JPY is likely to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 102.40 (target price calculated for the completion of the active minor impulse wave 3). Sell stop-loss can be placed above the recently broken price level 105.80.



More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9252

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bears wipe the floor with bulls
6/16/2016



There’s a “Hammer” at the achieved “Window”, but it hasn’t been confirmed yet. Therefore, an upward correction is likely going to begin, so we should keep an eye on the nearest resistance line. As we can see on the Daily chart, the price has reached the lower support. Moreover, the last black candle has a long shadow, so bulls are probably arriving to set up an upward correction.



We’ve got a confirmed “Harami” and a “Three White Soldiers” at the last low. Currently, here’s a possible “Engulfing” in progress. Therefore, a local downward movement becomes possible, but bulls will probably try to continue the upward correction, which was started yesterday.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9253

[riki143]

GOLD probably overcomes the level at 1312.50
6/16/2016

The price continues to test new marks, and has already achieved key level 8/8 (1312.50). No breakdowns STH4, which indicates the strength of the bulls. Despite growing STH4 and STD1, the expected pullback to the area of STD1 can happen now. The key level is 8/8, the breakdown of which at least one third of the width of the levels will lead to a further increase to the level + 1/8 (1328.13). The advantage is to give a bullish scenario, ambushed the breakdown 8/8.

Trade recommendation:

Buy – 1318.00; sell – 1312.00; tp – 1328.00.



More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9254

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears run smack into the "Window"
6/17/2016



We’ve got a “Harami” at the local high, so the nearest support line is still in the game. Moreover, it’s likely to have any bullish patterns on this line. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’re a “High Wave” and a “Harami”, but both of them haven’t got a confirmation. If it finally arrives, the market is probably going to achieve the resistance nearby.



There’s a bullish “High Wave” at the last minimum, which has been confirmed. However, we’ve got a confirmed “Hanging Man” at the local high, which means that the nearest support line is likely going to be reached in the short term.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9270

[riki143]

GBP/USD corrected from round support level 1.4000
6/17/2016

GBP/USD corrected from round support level 1.4000
Next buy target - 1.4350
GBP/USD recently corrected up sharply from the support zone near the round support level 1.4000 (which stopped the (B)-wave of the previous primary ABC correction ② from the end of February and which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The upward reversal from this support zone stopped the earlier impulse waves 3 and (3) – which belongs to the primary impulse wave ③ from the start of May.

GBP/USD is likely to rise further to the next buy target at the nearby resistance level 1.4350 (former strong support level which reversed earlier waves (1) and 1).



More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9273

[riki143]

NZD / USD is bullish direction
6/17/2016

The pair is in the corridor between the levels 6/8 (0.6958) and 8/8 (0.7080). Securing above STH4, as well as a rebound from the 6/8 are good arguments in favor of growth to the area of level + 1/8 (0.7141). It should be noted that trend is bullish, a rebound from the 8/8 level has not been completed breakdown 6/8. Nevertheless, it is advisable to wait for the breakdown of 8/8, after which accomplishes possible purchase. Unlikely breakdown STH4 will lead to a continuation of the flat short-term, that is, to the level of 6/8.

Trade recommendation:

Buy – 0.7100; sl – 0.7065; tp – 0.7140.



More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9274

[riki143]

GBP/USD: forecast for June 20-26
6/20/2016

The main topic for the British pound is the European Union membership vote on Thursday. Last week the referendum campaign was suspended for 3 days after the murder of Jo Cox, who was calling for Britain to remain in the EU. At the start of this week fears of Brexit declined. The latest opinion polls showed that the “remain” camp is ahead of Brexit supporters, though the lead remains narrow. Remember that potential Brexit may offer an opportunity of big gains on Forex, but the risks will be also very high.

Last week GBP/USD fell almost to 1.4000 before reversing up on Thursday and opening this Monday with a gap to the upside and rising to 1.4650. Data from CFTC showed that traders reduced their net short GBP positions by almost half in the week, which ended on June 14 – it means that speculators started to return to pound even before the market’s mood became more optimistic at the end of last week.



British pound had fallen a lot this year versus other major currencies. If the UK chooses to stay in the EU, well see a relief rally, especially against US dollar and Japanese yen. In case of no Brexit GBP/USD will rally to 1.4865, 1.5000 and 1.5130 (38.2% Fibonacci of 2014-2016 decline). On the other hand, Brexit would provoke a fall to 1.3680 (2001 low) and further towards 1.3000. Pound’s decline on Brexit will be bigger than its advance in case of no Brexit.

All in all, we remain on the positive side about the pound and think that the “remain” camp will win the referendum. Still sterling will remain volatile in the coming days as new opinion polls will be released.



More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9290

[riki143]

US dollar: forecast for June 20-26
6/20/2016

The US dollar index opened the week with a gap to the downside at 93.70 after it failed to settle above 95.00 last week. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates at 0.25%-0.50%. The central bank also cut its outlook for the economy and the future path of interest rates. Dovish comments from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard that the US needs only 1 rate hike through 2018 on Friday also weighed on the greenback.



The Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen will testify to Congress on monetary policy on Tuesday and Wednesday. The market players will expect comments on potential Brexit and some hints on the timing of the US interest rate hikes. America will also release housing data on Wednesday and Thursday as well as durable goods orders on Friday.

Yellen probably won’t give many hints about the US monetary policy until the future of Britain in the European Union remains uncertain. If Britain remains in the EU, the greenback will rise against Japanese yen and Swiss franc, but initially lose to Australian and New Zealand’s dollar. In case of Brexit the move will be opposite with big gains of the US dollar against commodity currencies.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9296

[riki143]

USD/JPY: forecast for June 20-26
6/20/2016

Last week USD/JPY tested 103.55, the lowest level since the end of August 2014. US dollar declined and Japanese yen gained as the Federal Reserve didn’t tighten monetary policy and the Bank of Japan announced no new monetary easing. In addition, traders were stressed by the risk of Brexit.

This week market’s risk sentiment improved as the fears that Britain will leave the European Union subsided. USD/JPY looks currently oversold and found support in the area of 50-month MA at 104.35. However, US dollar should remain under pressure until the market starts pricing in higher interest rates in the United States.

USD/JPY closed below the 200-week MA at 106.20 and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. These levels now function as resistance. This makes the greenback vulnerable for a decline to the 100.70 mark – this is 50% Fibonacci. Japanese monetary authorities are not expected to do currency interventions until the pair is trading above this point. The big trend is still bearish. Only the increase above 110 and 110.15 will return power to the bulls.



The Bank of Japan will release monetary policy minutes on Tuesday and Japan’s flash manufacturing PMI on Thursday. At the same time, risk sentiment will be the main driving force of the market. If Britain remains in the European Union, USD/JPY will get a chance to revisit the 110 mark - in case of Brexit we’ll see the pair closer to 100.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9297

[riki143]

EUR/USD: forecast for June 20-26
6/20/2016

EUR/USD once again tested the support line from the November lows, but managed to remain higher. The weekly candle was bullish, but there’s still resistance at 1.1415 and 1.1465, which is limiting the pair on the upside. The pair will likely trade between 1.1350 and 1.1230 ahead of the Brexit vote on Thursday.

Upcoming important news in the euro area’s economic calendar include German ZEW economic sentiment and the speech of the ECB president Mario Draghi on Tuesday, German IFO business climate on Wednesday and the region’s PMIs on Thursday. In addition, the European Central Bank will implement a targeted LTRO program on June 22, in which it will pay commercial banks to use its money. The banks will be required to lend the money to its customers. This is a form of monetary stimulus.

We’ll watch the figures out of Europe, but note that the single currency is largely driven by the expectations connected with the UK referendum and the dynamics of the British pound. The remain vote will make the euro appreciate to 1.15 (100-week MA) and potentially to 1.16. If Britain chooses to leave the euro area, the uptrend of EUR/USD will head to 1.08. No Brexit is a mire likely scenario.



More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9298

[riki143]

EUR/USD ahead German ZEW Indicator: Will the bears take the control?
6/21/2016

Today in Germany will be released the ZEW Economic Sentiment at 09:00 GMT, which is expected to have a drop from 6.4 to 5.1, after it had a surprise during May, where the reading fell from 11.2. For June, the publication will be dominated by the uncertainty regarding the “Brexit” referendum to be done at United Kingdom this thursday, as the EU countries will be watching closely the polls and latest updates about the issue. That's why the coming release of German ZEW Economic Sentiment could have no major changes.

We can note at H4 chart of EUR/USD that a bearish continuation is ongoing, below a bearish trend line that was projected from the May 3rd session's highs. If June's reading for ZEW is higher than expected, then we can see a rally towards the 1.1380 and 1.1400 levels at least, in a first degree. The worst case scenario will push lower the pair to test the support zone of 1.1247, which would mean a consolidation below the 200 SMA.



More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9299

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Double Top" points to a possible local correction
6/21/2016



The price has found a resistance at 1.1392, which brought a “V-Top” pattern. So, the market is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.1324 – 1.1282, which was developed by the yesterday’s “Breakaway Gap”. If we see a pullback from this area, bulls will probably try to catch a resistance at 1.1416 later on.



As we can see on the one-hour chart, the pair faced a resistance at 1.1392, so we’ve got a “Double Top” at the last high, which has been confirmed. Therefore, bears are likely going to get a support at 1.1324 – 1.1279. However, if price stops here, an upward movement becomes possible, so we should keep an eye on the next resistance at 1.1392 – 1.1415.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9300

[riki143]

GBP/USD: unstoppable bulls are going to break the last high
6/21/2016



Bulls got a resistance at 1.4723, but the price is likely going to test the trend line during the day. If we see a pullback from here, it’ll be an opportunity to see a downward correction. Therefore, the next local bearish target is a support at 1.4601 – 1.4579.



The price has been rising dramatically fast since a “V-Bottom” arrived at the last low. Considering a local “Thorn” pattern, the market is likely going to reach the nearest resistance, which is strengthened by the down-trend line. Subsequently, if a pullback from the line happens, bears will probably try to set up a downward correction.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9301

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Engulfing" set up a downward correction
6/21/2016



The last “Window” is still open, but on its upper side we’ve got a “Morning Star”. On the other hand, there’re a couple of “Doji”, but they haven’t confirmed yet. If so, the yesterday’s “Window” is likely going to be tested again. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s an unconfirmed “Shooting Star”, so the market is likely going to achieve the 21 Moving Average in the short term. If any reversal patterns arrived on this line, bulls will probably try to move on.



We’ve got a “Harami” at the local low, which has been confirmed enough. The last “Doji” haven’t got a confirmation, but it’s likely to see another bearish patterns in the short term. If so, the last “Window” will be the main intraday target.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9321

[riki143]

USD/JPY: "Window" stopped bears
6/21/2016



We’ve got a “Hammer” and a “Tweezers” on the last low, which both have been confirmed enough. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance level, which was set up by the middle of the last black candle. As we can see on the Daily chart, the price has found a lodgement under the last “Window”, but an “Inverted Hammer” is still unconfirmed. So, the pair is probably going to form a “Tweezers” pattern in the short term.



There’s a consolidation in progress. The yesterday’s “Window” has been closed, but it’s still an important level. However, we’ve got a “Shooting Star”, which points to a possible local correction. If any bullish pattern arrives later on, there’ll be an opportunity to see the price on the 55 Moving Average.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9322

[riki143]

NZD/CAD rising inside minor impulse wave 3
6/21/2016

NZD/CAD rising inside minor impulse wave 3
Next buy targets - 0.9200 and 0.9300
NZD/CAD has been rising in the last few trading sessions inside the active minor impulse wave 3 – which previously broke through the pivotal resistance level 0.9030 (which stopped the B-wave of the previous intermediate ABC correction (B) in March, as can be seen below). The breakout of the resistance level 0.9030 accelerated the active impulse wave 3 (which belongs to the intermediate (C)-wave from the end of April).

NZD/CAD is likely to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 0.9200 – the breakout of which can lead to further gains toward 0.9300 (forecast price for the termination of the active impulse wave 3).



More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9323

[riki143]

AUD/USD approaching resistance level 0.7510
6/21/2016

AUD/USD approaching resistance level 0.7510
Next buy target - 0.7600
AUD/USD has been rising steadily in the last few trading sessions inside the minor impulse wave (iii), which belongs to the C-wave from the end of May. The active C-wave started when the pair reversed up from the support zone lying between the support level 0.7200, lower daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp upward A-wave from January.

AUD/USD is currently approaching the resistance level 0.7510 (which stopped the previous impulse wave (i) at the start of June) If the pair breaks above 0.7510 - AUD/USD can then be expected to rise to the next buy target at 0.7600 (forecast price for the completion of impulse (iii)).



More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9324

[riki143]

USD/CAD & Crude Oil Inventories: Bulls still dominate the overall scenario
6/22/2016

Today at 12:30 GMT will be released the Core Retail Sales indicator in Canada, which favors to have a positive reading from -0.3% to 0.7%, which is the latest consensus by analysts. Later at 14:30 GMT, we expect the reading from Crude Oil Inventories in United States, which could have a dip from -0.9M to -1.3M. Both indicators will be likely to move CAD pairs during wednesday session, but because of the Brexit's referendum that will take place this thursday, we should expect less volatility for USD/CAD after both indicators' release.

Technical overview for USD/CAD at H4 chart is calling for a bullish continuation, as it remains supported by a trend line plotted from the May 3rd lows. If Crude Oil inventories are within expectations, then it could build the ground to test the 200 SMA afterwards. However, if the reading is worst-than-expected, it could attempt to break the resistance level of 1.2953, while a better-than-expected can push the Loonie to test the support zone of 1.2678, which is below of trend line's zone.



More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9325

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bulls stopped by the "Double Top"
6/22/2016



We’ve got a “Double Top” at the last high, which has been confirmed, so the price achieved a support at 1.1242 afterwards. Therefore, the market is likely going to catch a resistance at 1.1282 – 1.1324 during the day. If a pullback from this area arrives, a decline towards a support at 1.1219 – 1.1188 becomes possible.



The price faced a support at 1.1222, which brought a confirmed “Triple Bottom” pattern. So, bulls are likely going to reach a resistance at 1.1279 – 1.1324. However, if buyers be stopped here, a new downward movement will be on the table.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9326

[riki143]

GBP/USD: new high is coming because of the "Thorn"
6/22/2016



The pair found a resistance on the trend line, so the price got a support at 1.4601 afterwards. Also, there’s a bullish “Thorn” pattern, which points to a possible rise towards the main down-trend line. If we see a pullback from here, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline in the direction of a support at 1.4579.



We’ve got a local flat in progress. It’s likely that the price is going to test a resistance at 1.4782 once again. If bulls be stopped here, a downward movement becomes possible.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9327

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Window" could be a reason for deeper upward correction
6/22/2016



The last “Window” was finally closed, so we’ve got two bullish patterns such a “Morning Star” and an “Inverted Hammer”, which both have been confirmed enough. So, the market is likely going to test the upper “Window” in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a confirmed “Shooting Star”, so when a local correction ends there’ll be an opportunity to see a bearish candle.



The price has been moving up and down under the “Window”. Also, we’ve got a “Harami” and a “Piercing Line” at the local low, so an upward movement becomes possible. In this case, we should keep an eye on the nearest resistance line.

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9342