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  #251  
Old 12-04-2017, 09:46
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 12th April 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th April 2017.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Japanese stocks headed south in Asia overnight, with the Nikkei losing more than 1% as the Yen strengthened and risk aversion continues to weigh on markets. Once again exporters and financials were mostly hit. Other Asian markets are narrowly mixed, U.K. futures are slightly higher, but U.S. futures are also down. Geo-political concerns continue to weigh on sentiment and curtail risk appetite, which is also pushing out Eurozone spreads, with French markets also jittery ahead of the Presidential election as leftist EU-critic Melenchon continues to catch up in the polls. Oil prices continue to climb and the front end Nymex future is trading at USD 53.51 per barrel. The European calendar has April inflation data from Spain and Portugal as well as U.K. labour market data.

US reports: U.S. Jobs openings climbed 118k in February to 5,743k, from a revised 86k increase in January to 5,625k. The rate was edged up to 3.8% from the 3.7% that had been in place for months. However, the rest of the report was on the weaker side. Hiring’s declined 110k to 5,314k following the 121k increase in January to 5,424k. The rate slipped to 3.6% from 3.7%. Quitters also declined, falling 102k to 3,084k after surging 101k to 3,186k. The rate fell to 2.1% from 2.2%. The slippage in some of the January data are consistent with the downward revisions seen in Friday’s employment report. But the data are still in line with a solid jobs environment.

Eurozone industrial production dropped -0.3% m/m in February, largely due to a -4.7% m/m decline in energy production, which came after a 2.0% m/m rise in January and to a large extend reflects weather conditions over the first two months of the year. The unexpected contraction doesn’t necessarily mean a slowdown in underlying growth conditions and the annual rate bounced back to 1.2% y/y from just 0.2% y/y reported initially. Confidence numbers though have been encouraging and still suggest that the recovery continues, even if weather and Easter effect are likely to distort GDP numbers over the first two quarters of this year.

German ZEW investor confidence jumps to 19.5 in April, from 12.8 in March. The stronger than expected reading lifted the 3 months’ trend rate for the first time since January and with the current conditions indicator also improving the data suggests that the German recovery remains on track.

Main Macro Events Today

BOC Policy Report and Rate Statement – No change in the 0.50% rate setting is expected in today’s announcement, along with a modestly improved growth and inflation outlook that is tempered by ample caution amid still elevated downside risk to the economy.

UK Unemployment Rate – The jobs report expected to show the unemployment rate also remaining unchanged at 4.7%.

President Trump – President Trump is going to give an interview on Fox Business Network at 10 GMT, regarding healthcare, tax reform and Syria issue.

US Crude Oil Inventories – Expected to fall to -0.7M from 1.6M last week.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #252  
Old 13-04-2017, 10:04
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 13th April 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th April 2017.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets were mostly down, with ASX and Nikkei selling off as risk aversion continues to dominate. This also saw Eurozone spreads widening again, although French election jitters at least seem to have eased, which is helping French bond spreads to come in again. Today’s calendar should be bond friendly, with final March inflation data from Germany, France and Italy to confirm the marked deceleration already evident in the preliminary numbers. However, base effects from the later timing of Easter a largely to blame, so the underlying uptrend remains intact, even if core is still to low for Draghi’s liking.

US reports: The firm round of March U.S. trade price data followed mostly upward prior revisions, despite the expected March petroleum import price drop and a strong dollar, leaving a clear uptrend in U.S. trade prices since the oil price trough in February of 2016. Price strength remains skewed toward exports, as seen through most of 2016, after the opposite pattern temporarily emerged in January. The data signal modest upside risk for the remaining inflation reports for March. Import prices have mostly received a lift over the past year from oil prices, though we’re seeing an additional lift from recovering growth abroad and the inventory upturn, alongside OPEC production restraint.

German March HICP inflation was confirmed at 1.5% y/y, unchanged from the preliminary number and down from 2.2% y/y in February. Base effects from energy prices, but also the later timing of Easter are a key reason behind the drop back below the ECB’s 2% limit. The Easter effect meant holiday related prices including package holidays, flights and some services prices related to holidays pick up later this year compared to 2016, when Easter fell into March, so while the headline rate fell back in March this year, it is already set to pick up again in April. The underlying trend is also pointing higher and with rents picking up and the labour market very tight, the risk of a broader rise in prices including second round effects is also rising. No wonder then that Bundesbank President Weidmann continues to argue that the time to think about a phasing out of QE and a return to a neutral stance on rates has come.

Bank of Canada: The announcement, MPR and press conference provided the usual hefty helping of growth, inflation and risk projections/assessment. The BoC held rates steady at 0.50%, matching widespread expectations. Their outlook for growth and inflation was modestly upgraded but still laced with caution, as they remained “mindful of the significant uncertainties weighing on the outlook.” Despite the upbeat domestic data since January and a strengthening and broadening in global growth, the Bank was clear that “material excess capacity remains.” While the Bank did upgrade the growth and inflation outlook, uncertainty remains elevated and Poloz said the Bank is “neutral” in terms of rate cuts or hikes. The Governor said rates are “at the appropriate level given what we see.” Indeed, “The data speak, but the data have not been uniformly positive” but much better than they were for the past year. He reminded that we had a similar run of data last year, and it gave way to things flattening out last year. So “It is right for us to remain cautious.”

Main Macro Events Today

Us Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment – The preliminary April consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan survey is on tap. Confidence is projected to have bounced to 97.5, after edging up to 96.9 in March from February’s 2.2 point drop to 96.3.

Canada NHPI and Manufacturing Sales – The manufacturing survey should show a 1.0% drop in shipment values during February after the 0.6% gain in January. The new home price index is anticipated to rise 0.2% m/m in February after the 0.1% increase in January.

US PPI and Unemployment Claims – Weekly initial jobless claims (expected at 245K) and March PPI (expected at 0.0%) are also on tap today.

BOC Gov Poloz – BOC Gov Poloz will give a speech today in Ottawa along with Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #253  
Old 14-04-2017, 09:48
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 14th April 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th April 2017.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Bund and Gilt futures lost some of their earlier gains during the European PM session, as stock markets moved up from lows. Yields are also up from lows, but the Bund yield is still down -0.8 bp on the day and the Gilt down -1.2 bp as stock markets remain in negative territory. Risk aversion remains the main driving factor as trading slowed down ahead of the long Easter holiday weekend, with key European markets closed both today and next Monday. Eurozone spreads came in with France continuing to outperform as election jitters eased again. The Gilt curve flattened as the long end outperformed, while in Germany it was the short end that benefited most today, with the 2-year Schatz yield down -2.0 bp, while the 2-year Gilt was up 0.2 bp and the French up 1.0 bp.

US reports: revealed a lean round of March core PPI figures, alongside another super-tight claims reading of 234k, an April Michigan sentiment bounce to 98.0 that sits just below its 13-year high of 98.5 in January, and a bounce in the weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort index to 51.0 that also sits just below its 10-year high of 51.3 in mid-March. For March PPI, a 0.1% headline drop with a flat core price figure reflected an expected energy hit but a 0.1% service price decline. For claims, a 1k downtick leaves an April average of just 234k, versus higher prior averages of 251k in March, 241k in February, and 246k in January, leaving upside risk for our 190k April payroll estimate.

The Aussie was the biggest winner yesterday out of the main currencies, showing a 1.2% advance on the euro, which is the day’s loser, and a 0.7% gain versus the U.S. dollar and just over a 1% advance on the yen. The rebound was initially sparked in AUDUSD by Trump’s remarks on forex levels, coming with the Aussie ripe for an upward snap after a period of pronounced underperformance into a long weekend. AUDUSD clocked a nine-day peak at 0.7595. The pair has retraced about one third of declines seen from March highs. AUDUSD and AUDJPY, on the view that geopolitical tensions are likely to remain elevated in the weeks ahead (there are reports of satellite evidence showing that North Korea is preparing another nuclear test, and Japanese PM Abe said today that Pyongyang may have the capability to launch sarin nerve gas warheads).

Canada: Risk aversion remained the general trend on Thursday. Though some short covering into the long holiday weekend helped pare the losses in stocks, news that the U.S. dropped the massive and largest non-nuclear bomb (MOAB) on the caves in the Nangarhar Province of Afghanistan, targeting a “series of Islamic State caves,” extended the selloff. The S&P/TSX was the underperformer in North America, in part as energy weighed. Wall Street’s recovery was undone by the blast and prices resumed their downturn after a prior short covering bid was halted. Thin trading ahead of the long Easter weekend may have added to some of the markets’ moves too. There was little reaction to the manufacturing and home price data. Canada’s new housing price index grew 0.4% m/m in February after the 0.1% gain in January. Canada manufacturing dipped just 0.2% m/m in February after a revised 0.1% gain in January (was +0.6%). The decline in February was shallower than expected (median -0.9%) given the 2.4% plunge in export values.

Main Macro Events Today

US Retail Sales – March retail sales data is out today and should reveal a flat headline (median unchanged) with a 0.3% ex-autos rate. This compares to February figures which had the headline up 0.1% and the ex-autos rate at 0.2%.

US Business Inventories – February business inventory data should post a 0.3% increase for inventories, sales should also be up by 0.3%. This follows a 0.3% January inventory figure and 0.2% for shipments that month.

US CPI – March CPI is out today and we expect to see a 0.0% headline from 0.1% with the core flat at 0.2%.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #254  
Old 17-04-2017, 10:29
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 17th April 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th April 2017.




FX News Today

Political events and will remain firmly in focus this week. The market resurrection since the November election is being assaulted from all angles as the asset allocation pendulum swings back in favour of safety and away from risk. Divergent signals are evident from “hard data” such as weak retail sales and GDP versus “soft data” like surging consumer confidence and ISMs. After campaigning against U.S. globalism and interventionism, Trump continues to speak loudly on Twitter, but is now carrying a big stick. Intervention in Syria and Afghanistan and now with a US Strike Group off the Korean peninsula risks signals continue to ramp up. Elsewhere France goes to the polls at the weekend and President Erdogan appears to have won the referendum in Turkey. Gold trades at $1,290.00

United States: The economic calendar resumes with the Empire State index forecast to slip (Monday) to 15.0 in April from 16.4 in March, along with an update on the NAHB housing market index, seen easing to 70 in April from 71. Housing starts are expected to sink 0.6% in March to a 1,280k pace (Tuesday), though permits are seen rising to 1,260k from 1,216k. Industrial production is set to grow 0.3% in March from 0.1% (Tuesday), while capacity use rises to 76.1% from 75.9%. MBA mortgage applications may again be positively impacted (Wednesday) by the drop in rates with increased geopolitical risks, while EIA energy inventories remain fluid. The Philly Fed index may take a hit (Thursday) and decline to 25.0 in April after the surge to 32.8 in March. Initial jobless claims are forecast to rebound (Thursday) 14k to 248k for the week ending April 15, while the leading indicators index may rise 0.2% in March (median 0.2%) vs 0.6%. The week rounds out (Friday) with April Markit PMI and March existing home sales set to rebound 3.1% to a 5.65 mln pace from 5.48 mln in February. A small handful of Fedspeakers will be on hand this week including, George, Resengren and Kaskari . Earnings continue this week and include; Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, IBM, Morgan Stanley and Verizon.

Canada: Only CPI and Homes sales of note this week. We expect CPI (Friday) to expand 0.5% m/m in March after the 0.2% gain in February. Gasoline prices tracked higher through March. Meanwhile, total CPI is seen slowing to a 1.9% y/y pace in March from 2.0% in February. The trio of core measures remained muted in February, consistent with a tame backdrop of underlying inflation growth. The March existing home sales report is also due Tuesday. Total existing home sales jumped 5.2% m/m on a seasonally adjusted basis in February, and another firm reading would not be a shock.

Europe: Another holiday-shortened week, with most markets still closed Monday for Easter holiday celebrations. Political event risks are moving back into focus meanwhile as the first round of the French Presidential Election on April 23 draws nearer. The data calendar has the final reading of Eurozone March HICP inflation, which is widely expected to confirm the headline rate at 1.5% and core inflation at just 0.7%. The fall back clearly below the 2% limit in March is partly due to the later timing of Easter this year, which saw holiday related prices rising in April rather than March, so the data doesn’t change the picture of gradually rising headline rates, which will keep pressure on Draghi and Co to at least drop the implicit easing bias from the statement, even if the QE schedule is confirmed until the end of the year.

UK: London markets reopen after the Easter break on Tuesday. The calendar is quiet, and Brexit related developments are likely to remain limited ahead of the April-29 EU summit, while negotiations aren’t likely to start in earnest until after German elections in September. The only data release of note this week is retail sales for March (Friday), which we expect to decline 0.3% m/m (median same) and February’s 1.4% m/m gain..

Japan: The March trade report (Thursday) is expected to reveal a narrowed JPY 500.0 bln surplus, versus the revised 813.5 bln in February.

Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia’s minutes to the April meeting (Tuesday) is the main event, and there may be little of interest in the minutes. The RBA left its cash rate at 1.50% and stuck with dovish guidance in April, as had been general expected. Economic data is in short supply.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #255  
Old 18-04-2017, 10:16
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 18th April 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th April 2017.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian markets were mixed after returning from the holidays, with ASX and Hang Seng selling off, while the Nikkei close up 0.35% at 18,418. Australia’s market was hit by a drop in the mining sector amid the slump in iron ore and as concerns about the housing sector is denting the recent optimism in financials. The Hang Seng was hit by catch up trades after losses on mainland exchanges. FTSE 100 futures are also down, while U.S. futures are narrowly mixed. Oil prices are little changed, with the front end WTI future trading at USD 52.65 per barrel. Geopolitical factors continue to weigh and European markets have to digest Erdogan’s narrow victory in his bid to extend the presidential powers and the prospect of a tight Presidential election in France on the weekend. Amid this core bond markets are likely to remain supported and Draghi will keep a close eye on spread amid lingering risk aversion. Today’s calendar is unlikely to bring major surprises, with the final Eurozone HICP reading for March expected to be confirmed at 1.5% and EMU trade numbers usually not a market mover.

RBA Minutes: Steady rates consistent with growth and inflation targets, labour and housing markets “warranted careful monitoring” in coming months, Labour market somewhat weaker than expected, keeping wage growth low, Household consumption growth little weaker than expected in early 2017. CPI expected to pick up above 2 pct in 2017, core inflation to rise more slowly. RBA minutes repeats a rising in A$ would complicate economic adjustment, GDP likely expanded at moderate pace in Q1, impact of cyclone Debbie unlikely to be large. Commodity prices to boost national income in Q1, but terms of trade to decline from here, saw rising risks in household debt, housing markets. Finally – global growth accelerating broadly, Chinese economy appeared to have strengthened; protectionist policies in US still a risk. AUD sold off overnight and AUD USD currently trades at 0.7554 down from Mondays high at 0.7610.

US Data Yesterday: The NAHB homebuilder sentiment index fell 3 points to 68 in April after climbing 6 points to 71 in March (revised from 71), which was the highest since June 2005. It was 58 a year ago too. The single family sales index dipped 3 points to 74 after surging 6 points to 77 previously (revised from 78). But it’s been over 70 for five straight months, a sign of continued demand for new construction, according to the report. The future single family index fell 3 points to 75 after a 5 point pick up in March to 78. The index of prospective buyer traffic slipped 1 point to 52 from 53 (revised from 54). The Empire State headline plunged to a 5-month low of 5.2 from 16.4 in March and a 29-month high of 18.7 in February, versus a similar 6.5 in January. Yet the component data were mostly solid, and the ISM-adjusted Empire State remained unchanged at the 6-year high of 55.2 in March, versus 54.5 in February and 50.7 in January. The April headline drop coincided with declines in the orders and workweek components after big March increases, but all the remaining components rose.

Fedspeak: Fed VC Fischer did not discuss the policy course in his prepared remarks on “Monetary Policy Expectations and Surprises.” Rather it was a more academic summation of the Fed’s communications. He also pondered, can the Fed be too predictable, to which he answered “it is hard to argue that predictability in our reaction to economic data could be anything but positive” and he noted the clarity of the Fed’s reaction function allows the market to anticipate Fed actions and smoothly adjust. However, there could be some difficulties with respect to unexpected shocks to the economy if it appeared the FOMC was not being sufficiently responsive to incoming data that might affect the outlook. He does not look for a major market disturbance akin to the taper tantrum this time around as the FOMC shrinks its balance sheet, especially given the limited market reaction to the indication in the March FOMC minutes that a wind-down.

Main Macro Events Today

U.S. Housing Starts – March housing starts data is out later and should reveal a 1,256k pace for starts, up from 1,246k in January and 1,279k in December. Permits for the month should be 1,260k, up from 1,216k in February and completions should be 1,120k from 1,114k in February. The March NAHB posted an increase to 71, up from 65 in February before dipping back to 68 in April.

U.S. Industrial Production – March industrial production data is also out today expectations are for a 0.4% headline gain after a 0.1% headline in February and -0.1% in January. The capacity utilization rate should rise to 76.1% from 75.9% in February. Mining and manufacturing hours worked from the March employment report were firm which could lend some upside risk to the headline.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #256  
Old 19-04-2017, 10:26
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 19th April 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th April 2017.




FX News Today

European Outlook: The global sell off in equities continued in Asia overnight, as commodities continued to slide. Most Asian markets are in the red, with the Nikkei managing to outperform and holding on to slight gains as the Yen retreats and helps to underpin exporters. U.S. stock futures are higher, but U.K. futures are signaling a further slide in U.K. stocks, which were hit by a stronger Pound and May’s surprise announcement of a snap election on June 8 yesterday. The FTSE 100 closed with a nearly 2.5% loss on Tuesday and while Eurozone markets also headed south, losses were much more muted. Core bond futures had a bumpy ride yesterday, but Bund and Gilts managed to close higher in the end and with the Bund contract consolidating gains in after hour trade and U.K. stock futures still in the doldrums, it seems likely that Bund futures will remain supported at the open. French markets meanwhile remain under pressure ahead of Sunday’s first round of the Presidential election, as leftist EU critic Melenchon threatens to throw a spanner in the works. The European calendar has final Eurozone inflation data for March and EU trade numbers for February.

US reports: industrial production data that closely tracked estimates and a housing starts report that modestly fell short, though both reports documented a rebounding factory sector and a housing market that continues to grow despite March setbacks, with big winter distortions from a mild winter and weakness in the vehicle sector. For industrial production, a 0.5% headline rise reflected an 8.6% March surge in utility output after a 13.4% 6-month drop to a 13-year low, alongside a 3.8% vehicle assembly rate drop that partly explains the weak March jobs report. For housing, starts fell 6.8% in March alongside a 3.6% permits rise and a 3.2% climb for completions that proved particularly strong through the winter months.

UK: UK PM announced a snap general election for June 8, clearly looking for a strong mandate from the public as she heads into negotiations to take the UK out of the EU. May, having replaced Cameron mid-term as PM, would strength her position in the event that her Tory party wins the election, which does seem likely given the prevailing disarray of the opposition and with the economy having held up well since the vote to leave the EU last June. The political opposition in the UK is in a mess and the UK economy has performed robustly since the Brexit vote last June. The main opposition party, Labour, have formally supported Brexit in the wake of the referendum, while the much small Liberal Party, is against. The election doesn’t therefore seem likely to derail Brexit. The pound dove on news that PM was to make an announcement, though has recovered most of the losses and held steady when May confirmed the election. Sterling showed gain on the dollar and when averaged against the G3 currencies. The IMF has also raised its 2017 forecast for UK growth to 2.0% from 1.5% forecast in January, and up from the 1.0% growth it was forecast back in October. The IMF still warned that the eventuality of Brexit will dent trade, while there is a risk that Scottish independence will find further impetus as a consequence of the election.

Main Macro Events Today

Eurozone CPI – Eurozone March HICP inflation, which is widely expected to confirm the headline rate at 1.5% and core inflation at just 0.7%. The fall back clearly below the 2% limit in March is partly due to the later timing of Easter this year, which saw holiday related prices rising in April rather than March, so the data doesn’t change the picture of gradually rising headline rates.

NZD CPI (Q1) – Q1 CPI, expected to reveal a 0.8% gain (q/q, sa) after the 0.4% rise in Q4. The annual pace is projected to accelerate from 1.3% y/y in Q4, which would be supportive of our projection for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to hold rates steady at 1.75% though year end.

Japan Trade Balance – In Japan, the March trade report is expected to reveal a narrowed JPY 575.8 bln surplus, versus the revised 813.5 bln in February.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #257  
Old 20-04-2017, 10:27
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 20th April 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th April 2017.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Stock markets moved higher in Asia overnight, as oil recovered some of its recent losses and amid better than expected trade data out of Japan, which underpinned global growth optimism. U.S. stock futures are also moving higher, U.K. stock futures continue to underperform and remain in the red as ongoing Sterling strength weighs on the index. Elsewhere in Europe stock markets already moved higher yesterday and are likely to join the global stock rebound, which is likely to keep upward pressure on core European yields. Gilt futures have been underperforming in tandem with the FTSE 100 in recent days and in the Eurozone spreads are coming in, as policy markets indicate that its too early for a change in central bank policy thus laying the ground for a steady hand policy decision next week. French markets remain jittery ahead of Sunday’s election, which is turning into a four-way race. Today’s calendar is quiet. Germany has PPI inflation at the start of the session, the Eurozone releases construction output data and there is supply from Spain and France.

German PPI inflation steady at 3.1% y/y in March, unchanged from the previous month. Energy prices dropped over the month in March and contributed to a large extend to the steady headline rate. Excluding energy, however, PPI accelerated markedly to 2.6% y/y from 2.2% y/y in the previous month and versus just 0.6% y/y in December. Clearly underlying inflation pressures are making a comeback, and more so in Germany than in some other parts of the Eurozone and while it is clear that the majority at the ECB doesn’t want to remove the insurance policy against geo-political risks and the flaring up of the debt crisis yet, the discussion about tapering and a gradual removal of the ECB’s policy support won’t go away.

Fed’s Beige Book repeated the economy rose at a modest to moderate pace, as is the usual characterization. Manufacturing grew at a modest to moderate clip, as did employment, though the labor market remains tight. Modest wage increases broadened, and there were bigger increases for skilled workers. Prices rose modestly with input prices generally outpacing gains in selling prices. Consumer spending was varied, with stronger auto sales somewhat offset by softer non-auto retail spending. Residential construction spending accelerated somewhat, even as home sales slowed, partly on a lack of inventory. Nonresidential construction remained strong, but became more mixed in some regions. The report surely keeps the Fed in play, but there’s no urgency for a hike next month, especially given some uncertainties noted over fiscal policy.

The UK parliament voted in favour of the June 8 election, a formality that had been widely anticipated following the prime minister’s calling of it. The vote was 522 to 13. The pound was consolidating gains since Tuesday, following the PM’s call for a snap election. The thinking in markets is that the Tory Party would likely win a much a bigger majority than present, if polls are to be believed, which would give the Prime Minister much more flexibility in upcoming negotiations with the EU. May will also have three years clear after actual Brexit in 2019 before having to hold a general election, which pundits reckon will also give her much greater leeway in forming a possible transitional trade agreement with the EU.

Main Macro Events Today

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims – Claims data for the week of April 15 are out today and should post an increase to 240k from 234k last week and 235k the week prior. Claims continue to remain remarkably tight.

U.S. Philly Fed Index – The April Philly Fed expected to decline to 25.0 from 32.8 in March and 43.3 in February. The Empire State is already out and posted a decline to 5.2 from 16.4 in March.

BOE Gov. Carney – BOE Gov. Carney speech starts at 12:30 GMT at the Institute of International Finance Policy Summit, in Washington DC.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #258  
Old 21-04-2017, 09:57
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 21st April 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st April 2017.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Stock markets moved higher in Asia overnight, with Japan outperformed as the Yen weakened following indications from BoJ Governor Kuroda that he will keep the accommodative policy in place. Hopes of progress on Trump’s tax reform following comments from Treasury Secretary Munchin helped to underpin gains elsewhere. The move higher in Asia followed gains in the U.S. yesterday, but it remains to be seen how European markets, which mostly managed to close slightly higher, while the French CAC rallied on hopes that Macron will emerge as the winner in Sunday’s election, will react to the latest shootings in France. The EUR seemed little phased, but to close to the election, the incident could underpin support for Le Pen’s hard line stance in what already looks like a very tight race. US. and U.K. stock futures are higher and oil prices are also extending gains with the front end WTI future at USD 52.75 per barrel. Today’s calendar focuses on preliminary PMI readings out of the Eurozone, which also has current account and BoP data. The U.K. releases retail sales for March.

FX Update: The majors have continued to hold narrow ranges into the risk event that is Sunday’s French presidential election, which presents polarized risks for the euro. EURUSD is holding in the lower 1.07s, consolidating after failing to sustain yesterday’s run to a three-week high at 1.077. USDJPY has settled around 109.00. The yen was briefly bid following news of the terrorist attack in Paris, which left two police dead, though impact proved limited. The yen subsequently dipped after BoJ’s Governor Kuroda made dovish remarks during an interview with Bloomberg TV, where he said, “we will stick with yield curve control” and that “we think the current pace of purchases and monetary base increase will continue for some time.” The reaffirmation that the BoJ is sticking to its dovish course, which contrasts with the Fed, and even the ECB, was enough to prompt a wave of yen selling, with USDJPY logged an intraday high at 107.42 before impetus faltered, leaving yesterday’s nine-day peal at 109.49 untested.

U.S. reports: initial jobless claims rose 10k to 244k in the week ended April 15 after slipping 1k to 234k previously, which followed the 24k plunge to 235k for the April 1 week. Continuing claims declined 49k to 1,979k in the April 8 week after dropping 7k to 2,028k previously. That’s a 17-year low. Claims may have been impacted by the Good Friday holiday. Meanwhile, despite the uptick in jobless claims, the data remain near historic lows and reflect a strong labor market, as noted in the Fed’s April Beige Book. U.S. Philly Fed manufacturing index fell 10.8 points to 22.0 in April following the 10.5 point drop to 32.8 in March. Those follow the surprisingly strong 19.7 point surge to 43.3 in February which was the highest level since January1984, and compares to the record high of 49.5 in July 1983.

Main Macro Events Today

EU PMI – The Easter effect may also have an impact on preliminary PMI readings for April, and manufacturing and services sector numbers differently. Eurozone’s manufacturing readings expected at 56.3 from 56.2, while the services sector number expected to be remain unchanged at 56.0, which should leave the composite marginally at 56.3 from 56.4 in March.

UK Retail sales – Retail sales for March, expected to decline 0.3% m/m and February’s 1.4% m/m gain. Meanwhile, total Retail Sales are seen slowing to a 3.4% y/y pace in March from 3.7% in February.

Canadian CPI – CPI, expected to expand 0.4% m/m in March after the 0.2% gain in February. Gasoline prices tracked higher through March. Meanwhile, total CPI is seen slowing to a 1.8% y/y pace in March from 2.0% in February. The Bank of Canada expressed cautious optimism that underlying CPI will gradually move back towards the 2% target.

US PMI & Existing Home Sales – The week rounds out with April Markit PMI and March existing home sales data expected at 2.5% increase in the headline pace to 5.60M from 5.480M in February.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #259  
Old 24-04-2017, 12:38
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 24th April 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th April 2017.




FX News Today

Geopolitics have continued to dominate global markets long after the June 23 Brexit vote and the November 8 Trump victory. And the emphasis will remain on POLITICS this week too following the outcome of France’s presidential election (round 1), and ahead of a “big announcement” Wednesday from President Trump on his tax plan. Eurozone and especially French markets are likely to take a sigh of relief after Macon managed to beat Le Pen in the first round of the French election and Frexit risks subside. Macron will have to wait until the second round on May 7 where he is set to beat Le Pen by a wide margin, before he officially becomes President, but markets are likely to celebrate his victory already today.

United States: U.S. markets will quickly turn to domestic politics as President Trump plans an announcement Wednesday on his tax code overhaul. However, the White House said late Friday that it would be more of a broad outline, and hence not heavy on details. The economic calendar will generally take a back seat this week. The Advance Q1 GDP report (Friday) should be one of the more interesting releases. Growth is expected to slow to a 1.3% pace, from Q4’s 2.1% pace, and continuing the trend over the last several years of measurable erosion in Q1. More timely data includes the April Dallas Fed index (Monday), the Richmond Fed index (Tuesday), the KC Fed survey (Thursday), and the Chicago PMI (Friday). March new home sales (Tuesday) are forecast falling 1.2% to 585k. Also on Tuesday are the February Case-Shiller and FHFA home price indexes, with pending home sales due Thursday. Consumer confidence (Tuesday) should slip to a still strong 124.0 in April after the surprise surge to 125.6 in March. The final April print on consumer sentiment (Friday) is expected to inch up to 98.5. March durable goods orders (Thursday) are expected to be unchanged. Finally, Q1 ECI (Friday) is forecast holding at a 0.5% pace.

Canada: Canada awaits the first look at February GDP (Friday), expected to reveal a flat (0.0%) reading after the 0.6% surge in January. But before that, some additional ingredients for the GDP projection will be released, with wholesale shipment figures (Monday) and retails sales (Wednesday). Wholesale shipments are expected to fall 0.5% m/m in February after the 3.3% surge in January. Retail sales are projected to improve 0.1% after the 2.2% jump in January. The industrial product price index (Friday) is seen rising 0.2% m/m in March after the 0.1% gain in February. Average weekly earnings for February (Thursday) and the CFIB’s Business Barometer for April (Thursday) round out the calendar.

Europe: Today,Even as the markets will be busy digesting the outcome of the first round of the French Presidential election from Sunday, traders will also have a bumper crop of data to analyze, along with the outcome of the ECB meeting. The outcome of the ECB meeting (Thursday) will also hinge to some extent on the French election result. Growth is picking up and this week’s data round is likely to add further to signs that the recovery is not just strengthening, but broadening, and that the slowing in the March HICP to 1.5% y/y from 2.0% was due to special factors. The very full data calendar has first Q1 GDP readings from France and Spain, as well as more April confidence surveys in the form of the German Ifo and the EMU ESI. There also will be a full round of preliminary April inflation numbers. The French HICP (Friday) is expected to bounce back to 1.7% y/y in April from 1.4%, while the Italian reading (Friday) is seen at 1.7% y/y from 1.4%. Spain’s price figure (Thursday) should rise to a 2.4% y/y clip from 2.1%. These should boost the overall April Eurozone CPI (Friday) to 1.8% y/y, up from 1.5% in s month. Even core inflation will be impacted by the Easter effect. Also on the week’s slate are German March retail sales, import price inflation, and GfK consumer confidence, along with French consumer spending data. The ECB meanwhile publishes the latest bank lending survey on Tuesday.

UK: Sterling rallied over 2% last week after British PM May called a snap election, which will take place on June 8 and is widely expected to see her Tory Party greatly increase its majority. Market focus will be on incoming polls, and while the main Labor Party opposition is in disarray, there is a risk that the SNP might win the vote strongly at the election, which would increase the odds for Scottish independence. After a quiet week previously, the UK data schedule picks up, highlighted by the preliminary Q1 GDP estimate (Friday) where we expect growth to slow to 0.4% q/q from 0.7%. Other data include the April CBI surveys on industrial trends (Monday) and the distributive sector (Thursday), both of which we expect to show moderation from respective April readings. Overall, the reports are expected to fit an emerging picture of stagnating economic growth, which the ONS stats office, in explaining unexpected weakness in official March retail sales data on Friday, blamed mostly on rising prices and declining real income.

Japan: Japan’s BoJ meets (Wednesday, Thursday). The Bank is widely expected to keep its very accommodative stance in place with its -0.100% policy rate, while maintaining its control over the yield curve via QE and the asset purchase program. Indeed, BoJ Governor Kuroda confirmed last week that easy policy and steady asset purchases would continue to some time. The data calendar kicks off with March services PPI (Tuesday). That’s followed by the February all-industry index (Wednesday). The balance of releases are out on Friday, beginning with March National CPI, March unemployment, preliminary March industrial production, March personal income is due, along with March PCE, March overall retail sales, March housing starts and March construction orders are also on tap.

Australia: Australia’s calendar features a double dose of inflation data: Q1 CPI is scheduled for release on Wednesday and Q1 PPI is due out Friday. CPI is expected to expand 0.6% in Q1q/q after the 0.5% gain in Q4, leaving an annual growth rate of 2.2% in Q1 after the 1.5% y/y pace in Q4. The PPI is projected to expand 0.8% in Q1 following the 0.5% rise in Q4. Trade prices for Q1 are due on Thursday, while March private sector credit will be released on Friday.

New Zealand: New Zealand’s slate has the March trade report, expected to show a NZ$200 mln surplus after the NZ$18 mln deficit in February. Building permits for March are also due Friday.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #260  
Old 25-04-2017, 11:35
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Default Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

Date : 25th April 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 25th April 2017.




FX News Today

European Outlook: The global stock market rally continued in Asia overnight. In the absence of further news from North Korea global jitters have abated somewhat and with Macron advancing as the favourite in the runoff to the final round of the election, the focus is turning to corporate earnings, the ECB meeting Thursday, and once again Trump’s tax package. The Nikkei remained underpinned by a weaker Yen, Chinese stocks stabilized, after yesterday’s sell off, while Australia and New Zealand were closed for a holiday. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are moving higher and Bund futures, which sold off sharply yesterday as save haven trades were being reversed, already started to stabilize later in the session. Eurozone spreads, which came in sharply yesterday as French and peripheral yields dropped, should also start to stabilize again, especially as more stability in France also means there is less need for Draghi’s insurance policy on rates and QE. Today’s calendar has business confidence data from France, the ECB’s bank lending survey, a German Schatz auction and U.K. borrowing numbers.

Fed’s Kashkari said bank regulations made ending too-big-to-fail worse by raising compliance costs on small and medium sized lenders. Kashkari is speaking at an investment conference at UCLA. And he noted big banks likely hate his call for a higher capital cushion. Dodd-Frank legislation was probably a net-positive for the system, but looking back on it, he added it wasn’t perfect and didn’t really address too-big-to-fail. He’s not real sure of the benefits of negative rates. While they may have helped spur people to invest and spend more, and save less, he’s simultaneously concerned that the psychological channel of negative rates may scare people. He didn’t really address monetary policy given his speech falls within the FOMC’s 10-day blackout period.

European markets continued to celebrate Macron’s victory in the first round of the French election during the European session yesterday. Frexit and Eurozone breakup concerns were being priced out, which triggered a broad rally on European stock markets. The FTSE 100 underperformed but still managed to gain more than 2%, and in the Eurozone, it is the Italian MIB rather than the French CAC 40, which is leading the way by rising nearly 4.5%. The revival of risk appetite saw Bund and Gilt yields spiking higher, while Eurozone peripheral yields dropped sharply and spreads came in. The German 10-year Bund yield is up 9.3 bp while the Gilt yield is up 4.1bp. By contrast the French 10-year is down -8.8 bp, the Italian down -4.5 bp, the Spanish down -5.4 bp and the Portuguese a whopping 14.9 bp. At the short end France clearly outperformed and the French yield curve steepened as the 2-year yield lost -11.2 bp . Macron still has to take on Le Pen in the second round of the contest on May 7, but he is tipped to beat the far right, EU critic by a wide margin.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Public Borrowing – March’s Public borrowing data is also up today, and expected to go up to 1.5B from 1.1B last time.

US Consumer Confidence – April consumer confidence is out today and should fall to 124.0 from 125.6 in March and 116.1 in February. Michigan Sentiment rose in its first release, climbing to 98.0 from 96.9 in March and 96.3 in March. However, the IBD/TIPP Poll for April declined to 51.7 from 55.3 in March.

US New Home Sales – March new home sales data expected at 1.2% headline decline to a 585k pace from 592k in February and 558k in January. The other major housing reports were mixed with starts falling to 1.215 mln from 1.202 mln in February whereas existing home sales rose to 5.710 mln from 5.470 mln in February.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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