Forex Lasers Forum

Go Back   Forex Lasers Forum > FOREX TRADING > Currency Analysis

Currency Analysis Forex Technical and Fundamental Analysis of the 4 majors (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF) & other pairs. Post your FX charts!

» Forex Ad
Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Search this Thread
  #1  
Old 18-12-2013, 14:28
FBS's Avatar
FBS FBS is offline
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 120
Default Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

Hello, here is this thread we are going to publish market news and trade recommendations by the leadung FX provider - FBS!

Follow the updates and ask questions. We are here for you!
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 18-12-2013, 14:34
FBS's Avatar
FBS FBS is offline
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 120
Default Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

MS: trading on the FOMC

Analysts at Morgan Stanley developed scenarios of the FOMC meeting results and supplied them by the suitable course of actions for traders:

Scenario 1: No major policy changes

Actions: Initially sell USD against most currencies; buy risky currencies vs. JPY. Then start looking for lower levels to buy USD as the QE tapering should take place early next year.

Scenario 2: Some tapering without guidance

Actions: Buy USD vs. risky currencies; cautious about USD/JPY longs as yen will likely strengthen in the risk-off environment.

Scenario 3: Forward guidance

Actions: The stronger the forward guidance is, the better performance MS would expect from currencies which are highly sensitive to rate spreads and less sensitive to risk appetite. If we get forward guidance + tapering, GBP and CAD would outperform on the crosses.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 18-12-2013, 14:39
FBS's Avatar
FBS FBS is offline
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 120
Default Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

GBP/USD: how long will the rally last?

Kira Iukhtenko, FX BAZOOKA analyst


As we expected yesterday, the cable met buyers at the lower boundary of the bearish channel at $1.6230 (this is also the 38.2% Fibo retracement from the $1.5850/6450 rally). On Wednesday GBP/USD jumped to $1.6365 (61.8% Fibo of the recent decline), inspired by the upbeat UK employment figures. Jobless claims in Great Britain contracted by 36.7K in November (forecast: -35.2K; prior revised up to -42.8K). Unemployment rate fell from 7.6% to 7.4%, coming closer to the BoE 7.0% target. BoE meeting minutes brought nothing new except for the words that “further substantial appreciation” of GBP may hurt the economic recovery. However, the market didn’t pay too much attention on that.

The question now arises of whether the GBP rally will survive the Fed’s meeting or not. If the Fed tapers and pushes the greenback up, cable can depreciate. However, the market needs too close below $1.6230/00 area to confirm the top at $1.6465. If the Fed disappoints with QE reduction, we can see a rise towards our initial target of $1.6600 in the medium term.

Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 19-12-2013, 14:00
FBS's Avatar
FBS FBS is offline
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 120
Default Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

Dec. 19: Asian session

US dollar gave back some of the gains it made yesterday as the Fed said it would start tapering QE.

USD/JPY corrected a bit from more than 5-year high at 104.36, but is still trading above 104.00. Japanese Nikkei share average jumped by 1.5% this morning. Data on Japan buying foreign bonds showed continued outflow of money from Japan.

Australian and New Zealand dollars came under pressure as Fed announced tapering. AUD/USD fell to$0.8820, its lowest level since August 2010, but has recovered some ground later. The pair sits at the $0.8850 August 2013 lows as of writing. NZD/USD fell to $0.8175 despite the better-than-expected New Zealand GDP. NZ economy rose by 1.4% q/q in Q3 vs. expected +1.1% and prior +0.3%.

EUR/USD slipped to $1.3648. GBP/USD is trading in the $1.6370 area after peaking to $1.6484 yesterday.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 19-12-2013, 14:02
FBS's Avatar
FBS FBS is offline
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 120
Default Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

Key currency options (Dec. 19)

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3500 (large), $1.3530, $1.3540, $1.3670, $1.3770, $1.3780;

GBP/USD: $1.6400;

USD/JPY: 103.00 (large), 103.50, 103.70;

AUD/USD: $0.8710 (large); $0.8900 (large); $0.8950, $0.9050 (large);

USD/CAD: 1.0595.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 19-12-2013, 14:05
FBS's Avatar
FBS FBS is offline
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 120
Default Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

Fed announced $10 bln tapering

Farewell surprise from Mr. Bernanke )

The Federal Reserve announced it would cut its monthly bond purchases in January to $75 billion from $85 billion, taking the first step toward unwinding the unprecedented monetary stimulus. “In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions, the committee decided to modestly reduce the pace” purchases, the Federal Open Market Committee said today. The interest rate will remain at record lows at least before the unemployment falls below 6.5%. The Fed has also revised its economic forecasts to the upside.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 19-12-2013, 14:07
FBS's Avatar
FBS FBS is offline
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 120
Default Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

Technicals for majors

EUR/USD

EUR/USD breached support at $1.3705 on the news that the Fed will taper QE.

The pair fell below 55-period MA and is trading in the area of the100-period one. The lines went from rising to the horizontal state.
The prices are at the lower edge of the Ichimoku Cloud ($1.3666) which is currently providing support. Failure here will be a bearish signal. The bullish Cloud itself has dramatically narrowed.
MACD went to the negative territory. RSI is currently signaling oversold.
Support: $1.3666, $1.3648, $1.3625 and $1.3575

Resistance: $1.3705, $1.3740/50, $1.3790


Chart. H4 EUR/USD

Upcoming events:

EUR - 9:00 GMT - Current Account

EUR - All Day - European Council meeting (banking union discussion)

USD - 13:30 GMT - Unemployment Claims

USD - 15:00 GMT - Existing Home Sales

USD - 15:00 GMT - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

USD - 15:00 GMT - CB Leading Index
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 19-12-2013, 14:10
FBS's Avatar
FBS FBS is offline
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 120
Default Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

GBP/USD

Market sentiment on the H4 is bullish. Cable is consolidating around $1.6380 after having jumped to $1.6485 post the Fed’s announcement. We remain bullish for the pair as long as it holds above $1.6320.

The cable broke above the bearish channel.
H4 MACD histogram rose into the positive territory (bullish sign).
Cable rose above the 100- and 55- period MAs.
Ichimoku Cloud is also giving out bullish signals.
Support: $1.6340, $1.6300, $1.6230 (38.2% Fibo), $1.6215

Resistance: $1.6435, $1.6465, $1.6500


Chart. H4 GBP/USD

Upcoming events:

GBP - 9:30 GMT – Retails sales

USD - 13:30 GMT - Unemployment Claims

USD - 15:00 GMT - Existing Home Sales

USD - 15:00 GMT - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

USD - 15:00 GMT - CB Leading Index
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 19-12-2013, 14:12
FBS's Avatar
FBS FBS is offline
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 120
Default Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

USD/JPY

Bulls have regained control over the pair: USD/JPY rose by almost 200 pips yesterday, touching a new 5-year high of 104.40.The bullish impulse slowed at these levels, resulting in another wave of bearish correction.

• USD/JPY holds above the bullish H4 Ichimoku with Kijun-sen crossing the Tenkan-sen to the upside.

• Supported by the 55-day MA (102.85) and the 100-period MA (102.50).

• MACD histogram rose into the positive territory (bullish sign).

• Sentiment remains bullish as long as the 103.75 support holds.

Support: 103.75, 103.40, 102.50

Resistance: 104.40, 105.00, 105.55


Chart. Daily USD/JPY

Upcoming events:

USD - 13:30 GMT - Unemployment Claims

USD - 15:00 GMT - Existing Home Sales

USD - 15:00 GMT - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

USD - 15:00 GMT - CB Leading Index
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 19-12-2013, 14:14
FBS's Avatar
FBS FBS is offline
Level IV Lasers Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 120
Default Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

USD/CHF

Bearish pressure on USD/CHF eased as the pair rose from the 2-year low of 0.8832 to 0.8960.

The pair broke into the wide bearish Ichimoku and is trading not far from the Cloud resistance now (0.8975).
MACD histogram rose into the positive territory (bullish sign).
The price rose above the 55-period MA that acted as a resistance, but met sellers at the 100-period MA
Buyers need a break above the 0.8960/75 resistance to move further
Support: 0.8930, 0.8920, 0.8900

Resistance: 0.8960/75, 0.9000, 0.9030


Chart. Daily USD/CHF

Upcoming events:

USD - 13:30 GMT - Unemployment Claims

CHF - 14:00 GMT - SNB Quarterly Bulletin

USD - 15:00 GMT - Existing Home Sales

USD - 15:00 GMT - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

USD - 15:00 GMT - CB Leading Index
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are Off
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
About news trading safnur News trading 8 24-11-2015 14:37
The fundamental difference in the stock market and the forex market jamiebrwn Forex Discussion 3 11-08-2014 08:14
Daily Market News by TradingForex TF2012 Currency Analysis 0 02-10-2012 09:42
EUR/ USD Daily News Emmafx Forex Discussion 0 04-06-2012 14:56
"Forex Levels" - Trading recommendations, daily forecast on EURUSD and GBPUSD IvanUrupa Trading Journals 34 20-03-2012 05:20

» Forex Ad
» Log in
User Name:

Password:

Not a member yet?
Register Now!
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.1

All times are GMT. The time now is 01:09.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.10
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.