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  #1561  
Old 27-01-2016, 11:54
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AUD/CHF: buy targets - 0.7200 and 0.7300
27 January 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-AUD/CHF rising inside minor wave 2
-Next buy targets - 0.7200 and 0.7300

AUD/CHF continues to rise inside the second minor corrective wave 2 – which started earlier – when the pair reversed up from the support zone lying between the support level 0.6870, lower daily Bollinger Band, 61.8% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp primary wave ② from August and the support trendline of the daily down channel from December.

Having recently broken the aforementioned down channel - AUD/CHF is likely to rise further from the current levels toward the next buy targets at the resistance levels 0.7200 and 0.7300 (top of previous wave (2)).



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  #1562  
Old 27-01-2016, 13:42
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  #1563  
Old 28-01-2016, 00:18
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Forex trading plan for January 28

By Kira Iukhtenko

EUR/USD attempted to recover some ground on Wednesday, but was capped by the 1.0900 mark for now. The FOMC announcement could support the bulls later in the day, though. Technically, the pair remains in a bullish channel since late January. On Thursday the only important release to watch in euro zone is the German CPI. Local support lies at 1.0850.

Meanwhile, GBP/USD has lost some bullish power today. On Thursday we’ll watch the UK Q4 GDP. According to forecasts, economy grew by 0.5% (up from +0.4% in Q3). However, a weaker reading could easily pull the pair much lower as the overall sentiment towards GBP remains sceptic.

USD/JPY has recovered above 118.00. Watch the Japanese retail sales tonight (forecast – moderately upbeat). Market awaits the eventful Friday in Japan – the BOJ meeting and CPI are coming.

AUD/USD recovered back above 0.7000. We see an inverted “head-and-shoulders” pattern on the daily chart. It opens the way for more growth in the pair. Aussie was supported by better-than-expected inflation figures released on Wednesday (+0.4% in Q4).

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  #1564  
Old 28-01-2016, 13:20
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Aussie is going to grow
28 January 2016
Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

A currency pair of AUD / USD continues to trade within a four-hour Ichimoku cloud, but the short-term bullish mood still remains relevant. Yesterday bulls managed to test the cloud top level, but Senkou Span B has not yet let them go in a positive area. However, staying around above the Tenkan and Kijun lines promises upturn for the pair with a resistance breakdown of 0.7075. We should mention an active gold cross is active formed by Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines. Moreover, the Ichimoku cloud is tapering upwards due to Senkou Span A growth.

Technical levels: support – 0.7000, 0.7030; resistance – 0.7075, 0.7130.

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 0.7040; SL — 0.7020; TP1 — 0.7130; TP2 — 0.7160.



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  #1565  
Old 28-01-2016, 14:19
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AUD/NZD: buy targets - 1.1000 and 1.1100
28 January 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-AUD/NZD broke resistance zone
-Next buy targets - 1.1000 and 1.1100

AUD/NZD recently broke sharply through the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 1.0800, resistance trendline of the daily down channel from August and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward corrective wave ② from the end of last August. The breakout of this resistance zone accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3 – which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the start of January.

AUD/NZD is likely to rise further from the current levels toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.1000 – the breakout of which can lead to further gains toward 1.1100.



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  #1566  
Old 28-01-2016, 15:09
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USD/JPY is positive
28 January 2016
Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

Yesterday during the trading the USD/JPY currency pair escaped to a positive zone. Bulls managed to break through the upper Ichimoku cloud boundary resistance which was held since the beginning of week. But, in the late afternoon, the pair consolidated over Senkou Span B. Apparently, bulls have scruples on fast attack yet, but fixing of the price over a cloud can lead to emergence of new buyers in the market.

We will pay attention to the positive facts: Tenkan-sen and Kidzhun-sen has created a new "Golden cross"; Ichimoku cloud has changed its nature; Chinkou Span is gradually leaving the overbought area. Therefore bulls can take a revenge from their rivals today.


Technical levels: support – 118.50; resistance – 119.00, 119.40, 119.80.

Trade recommendations:
1. Buy — 118.60; SL — 118.40; TP1 — 119.40; TP2 — 119.80.



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  #1567  
Old 28-01-2016, 15:23
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EUR/AUD: sell target - 1.5200
28 January 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-EUR/AUD falling inside primary impulse wave ③
-Next sell target - 1.5200

EUR/AUD continues to fall inside the 3rd primary impulse wave ③ - which started earlier – when the pair reversed down sharply from the resistance zone lying between the resistance levels 1.6000 and 1.6200 (which reversed earlier intermediate correction (2)). This resistance zone was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band and by the two trendlines belonging to 2 different-length daily up channels, as can be seen below.

EUR/AUD is currently approaching the support zone near the support level 1.5340 (which earlier reversed the price twice in this month, as can be seen below). If the pair breaks below the support level 1.5340 – the price can then fall to the next sell target 1.5200.



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  #1568  
Old 28-01-2016, 15:35
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AUDUSD prices seems to go down but in the last few days it has been bullish, but soon it might come down.
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  #1569  
Old 28-01-2016, 15:39
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Forex trading plan for January 29
28 January 2016
By Kira Iukhtenko

EUR/USD is trying to recover on the back of the overall USD weakness, but remains capped by the 1.0950 mark (trend line). Weak German CPI and ECB easing expectations are a limiting factor. However, we could jump to 1.1000 on Friday on the US GDP. The US economic growth is expected to have slowed down to 0.8% in Q4.

GBP/USD recovered after the UK GDP came out in line with forecasts. The pair is now testing the 0.4350/60 resistance area. Fix higher would be a great signal to go long for the pair.

The market expected the BOJ meeting on Friday as well. USD/JPY is trading above 118 yen as we write. However, if BOJ gives no hints on a potential easing, the pair could lose some positions and slip into the 118-116 yen range.

As for AUD/USD, this is the champion of the week. The pair is now trading in an invers head-and-shoulders formation. Target lies at 0.7280. Weak USD and recovery of the commodity market creates room for a higher Aussie correction.

More:
URL=https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7723]https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7723[/URL]
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  #1570  
Old 29-01-2016, 10:04
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AUD/JPY: buy target - 88.00
29 January 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-AUD/JPY rising inside minor corrective wave (iv)
-Next buy target - 88.00

AUD/JPY continues to rise sharply inside the 4th minor corrective wave (iv) – which started earlier – when the pair reversed up from the support zone lying between the lower daily Bollinger Band and the major round support level 80.00 (as can be seen from the daily AUD/JPY chart below). The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Hammer.

AUD/JPY is likely to rise further in the active minor correction 4 toward the next buy target at the resistance level 88.00 (intersecting with the resistance trendline of the daily down channel from November of 2014 and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse from the top of this down channel).



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  #1571  
Old 29-01-2016, 10:19
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CAD/JPY: buy target - 87.30
29 January 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-CAD/JPY reached sell targets 80.00 and 79.00
-Next buy target - 87.30

CAD/JPY continues to rise strongly inside the 4th minor correction 4 – which started previously – when the pair reversed up with the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Hammer from the support zone lying between the support levels 80.00 and 79.00 (both of which were set as the sell targets in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The price then broke through the next resistance levels 84.00 and 85.00.

CAD/JPY is likely to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level87.30 (previous monthly low from August, intersecting with the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous extended downward impulse wave from June of 2015).



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  #1572  
Old 31-01-2016, 14:17
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USD/JPY: forecast for February 1-7

By Elizabeth Belugina

The Bank of Japan reduced the deposit interest rate to the negative level of -0.1% and left the door for more cuts open.

The regulator’s decision to turn to an even more aggressive loose monetary policy is caused by the turbulence at global financial markets. Concerns about slowing global economic growth, the problems of China and the decline of oil prices – all of it prevents Japan from attaining the 2% inflation mark, which is one of the key goals of Japanese central bank.

The fact that the Bank of Japan started to ease policy after a long pause means that it aims to fight the yen’s strength. The market players will now expect more easing from this central bank. Note, however, that the Bank of Japan’s decision wasn’t unanimous: 4 members votes against such step.

USD/JPY corrected up to 121.40 – resistance line, which used to act as support in 2012-2015. The next resistance is at 121.85/122.00 (December 2014 high, March 2015 high), as well as 122.80 and 123.50 (resistance line, going through June, August highs). Support is at 120.00, 118.70 and 117.00.



Next week there won’t be any market moving publications in Japan, so focus on Chinese statistics: manufacturing PMIs on Monday and services PMI on Wednesday. Better data will be positive for USD/JPY, while worse figures will have negative impact.

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  #1573  
Old 31-01-2016, 14:51
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EUR/USD: forecast for February 1-7

By Elizabeth Belugina

EUR/USD traded within the range of the past 2 months. Dovish minutes of the Federal Reserve’s meeting allowed the euro to rise to 1.0950, although improved market sentiment on the recovery in oil prices and the Bank of Japan’s monetary easing made the euro turn down below 1.0900.

At the same time, it seems that the effect of Mario Draghi’s bearish comments has worn down. According to the media, the members of the ECB Governing Council don’t agree about potential increase of monetary stimulus in March. So, there are reasons to believe that the downside of the euro will be limited. Support is at 1.0815/00 and 1.0710.

On the other hand, the dovish outcome of the Fed’s meeting has already been priced in by the market. We don’t rule out the possibility of a rate hike, and the overall divergence in policy between the ECB and the Fed remained. The euro area’s inflation data improved a bit, although statistics from Germany was poor. We assume that sideways trading will persist in EUR/USD with the focus on its lower border. Strong resistance is located at 1.1000/1.1050 (200-day MA, downtrend resistance line at 2014-2016, 55-week MA).



The upcoming release of Chinese statistics on Monday and Wednesday can once again worsen the market’s mood and increase demand for the euro. In the euro area’s economic calendar all events are of medium and low importance.

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  #1574  
Old 31-01-2016, 15:05
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US Dollar: forecast for February 1-7

By Kira Iukhtenko

Market sentiment towards the US Dollar worsened significantly after the Federal Reserve meeting on January 27. FOMC left interest rates unchanged and softened the overall rhetoric, pointing to increased global and internal risks. As a result, expectations for a Fed’s hike in March slipped to just 15%. How long will the USD selling last? To find the answer we need to monitor the upcoming economic events, as the Fed remains data-dependent.

Calendar for the new week is full of potentially market-moving events. Watch the PCE index and consumer spending data on Monday. FOMC voting members Fisher and George will deliver their speeches on Monday and Tuesday, respectively. These two policymakers have traditionally been hawkish – we will see whether they changed the views in the worsened economic conditions.

Apart from that, watch a block of PMI indices from Monday to Wednesday. On Friday, the market will focus on the labor market figures. Do not forget to leave your NFP forecasts on FX BAZOOKA website!

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  #1575  
Old 01-02-2016, 12:12
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AUD/USD: weekly wave analysis
1 February 2016

Daily. The pair keeps forming corrective wave [2], which is an upside pullback to the impulse [1]. When this wave is completed, the decline will resume.



H4. The wave [2] is taking form of the triple zigzag. This week a new downtrend will likely start to develop, so take this into account while trading.



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  #1576  
Old 01-02-2016, 12:41
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USD/JPY: weekly wave analysis
1 February 2016

Daily. In line with the forecast we saw the development of the rapid upward impulse (V). Growth will resume in the near term. We recommend considering only long positions.


H4. The pair is currently building an upward impulse III. The price will continue going upwards with small stops.


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https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7751
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  #1577  
Old 01-02-2016, 14:00
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GBP/USD: weekly wave analysis
1 February 2016

Daily. The pair is currently forming the final part of the downtrend [C]. Let’s review the layout in detail, to determine the point where the decline will continue.



H4. The wave (4) is taking form of a double triple. After a small advance, we’ll see the market rise within new bearish impulse (5). The decline will likely start already this week.



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  #1578  
Old 01-02-2016, 22:38
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EUR/USD: weekly wave analysis
1 February 2016

Daily. The market keeps moving in the final part of the double three (4), forming an upward zigzag Z. Let’s review the layout at Н4.


H4. The pair keeps forming corrective wave [b], which is taking form of the double three. The pair will finish the wave (x) this week, and then we’ll see final downward wave (y), which can be very small. Whenthewave [b] is completed, growth will resume.


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  #1579  
Old 01-02-2016, 23:04
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Forex trading plan for February 2

Chinese data showed that manufacturing slowed last month at its fastest pace in more than 3 years. The news worsened the mood of the market players. In addition, oil prices declined on reports in the media that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has made no decisions on the emergency meeting yet.

EUR/USD met support in the 1.0810 area (support line from January lows). Negative risk sentiment can make the single currency test higher levels. Resistance is at 1.0930/50, 1.1000 and 1.1050. We recommend looking for opportunities to sell the euro on the attempts to approach resistance, as traders will expect more easing from the European Central Bank after the Bank of Japan cut the deposit rate on Friday. The ECB President Mario Draghi will speak at 16:00 GMT on Monday. Om Tuesday the euro area will release unemployment figures.

GBP/USD keeps fluctuating around 1.4300. The UK manufacturing PMI came above expectations, though we remember that other data released recently were weak. Construction PMI is due at 09:30 GMT. Pound tries to recover leaning slightly to the upside. However, there’s resistance at 1.4335 and 1.4400, below which the picture will remain bearish. Support is at 1.4228, 1.4150 and 1.4080.

USD/JPY stalled below the 200-day MA at 121.46. The pair is overbought in the short-term, but 120.00 should provide support and lead to a pullback to the upside. The BOJ’s more loose policy makes buying on the dips out preferred strategy. Resistance is at 121.85, 122.80 and 123.50.

AUD/USD spiked to 0.7140 (daily MAs, former support line) on Friday forming a shooting star candle. Worries about China represent negative factor for the Aussie. Further esistance is at 0.7200. Support is at 0.7040, 0.7000 and 0.6935. The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its decision in the morning (03:30 GMT). The RBA is expected to keep the benchmark rate unchanged, but there’s the risk of dovish comments from the regulator.

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  #1580  
Old 02-02-2016, 12:54
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AUD/USD: sell target - 0.7030
2 February 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-AUD/USD reached buy target 0.7100
-Next sell target - 0.7030

AUD/USD continues to fall after the recent sharp downward reversal from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 0.7100 (former strong support from December and the previous buy target set in our earlier forecast for this currency pair), the upper daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp minor impulse wave 1 from the start of December. The downward reversal from this resistance zone completed the previous minor correction 2.

AUD/USD is likely to fall further in the active minor impulse wave 3 (belonging to the intermediate impulse (3) wave from December) toward the next sell target at the support level 0.7030.



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  #1581  
Old 02-02-2016, 13:07
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EUR/GBP: buy target - 0.7650
2 February 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-EUR/GBP reversed from support zone
-Next buy target - 0.7650

EUR/GBP continues to rise after the recent upward reversal from the support zone lying between the support level 0.7550 (which stopped the earlier minor correction 2 in January, as can be seen from the daily EUR/GBP chart below) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp minor impulse wave 1. The upward reversal from this support zone continues the active minor impulse wave 3 – which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the start of January.

EUR/GBP is likely to rise further in the active impulse waves 3 and (3) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 0.7650. Buy stop-loss can be placed below the aforementioned support level 0.7550.



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  #1582  
Old 02-02-2016, 22:02
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Forex trading plan for February 3

By Kira Iukhtenko

At the beginning of the week, risk appetite is low amid weak Chinese data on Monday and falling oil prices. What’s more, US data on Monday was a disappointment as well. Expectations for a Fed’s rate hike keep on falling. On Wednesday, watch the non-manufacturing Caixin PMI in China. In the US, pay attention to the non-manufacturing PMI, ADP NFP and the crude oil inventories figures later in the day.

EUR/USD is strengthening for a second day in a row and approached the falling trend line at 1.0950. There is a strong resistance in this area, so beware a pullback. Key support is seen at 1.0810. Euro zone’s economic calendar on Wednesday is rather light, so all eyes will be glued to United States and to the global risk sentiment.

GBP/USD remains highly volatile, once again pulling back from the trend resistance line on weaker-than-expected construction PMI figures. Watch the Services PMI on Wednesday (forecast - 55.4). Key intraday support lies at 1.4350. Generally, the strong bullish Monday candle remains unbeaten, but these levels are bad for buying. Close above 1.4450 could confirm a reversal to the upside.

USD/JPY has also declined from the last week’s highs of 121.70. In the current risk-off mode, demand for the safe yen is expected to stay high. Band of Japan Governor Kuroda is scheduled to speak tomorrow – markets await more comments on the recent BOJ rate cut.

AUD/USD is falling on Tuesday, but the recent rising trend remains in play.Watch the 0.7050/00 support area. As for the economic calendar, Australia is scheduled to releasetrade balance and building approvals data.

More:
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  #1583  
Old 03-02-2016, 14:52
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GBP/NZD: sell target - 2.1690
3 February 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-GBP/NZD reversed from resistance zone
-Next sell target - 2.1690

GBP/NZD recently reversed down sharply from the resistance zone lying between the strong resistance level 2.2200 (which has been reversing the price from last month, as you can see below), the upper daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse wave 1 from the middle of November. The latest downward reversal from this resistance zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Falling Star.

Given the strength of the resistance zone near the resistance level 2.2200 - GBP/NZD is likely to fall further from the current levels toward the next sell target at the support level 2.1690 (which stopped the previous (a)-wave in January).



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  #1584  
Old 03-02-2016, 15:11
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NZD/CAD: buy target - 0.9300
3 February 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-NZD/CAD reversed from support zone
-Next buy target - 0.9300

NZD/CAD recently reversed up sharply from the support zone lying between the round support level 0.9000 (former strong resistance from October), the lower daily Bollinger Band and the Fibonacci cluster made out of the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous primary ABC correction ② and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous (C)-wave from November. The upward reversal from this support zone started the active minor correction 2.

NZD/CAD is likely to rise further in the active minor wave 2 toward the next buy target at the resistance level 0.9300 (target price for the completion of the active wave 2).



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  #1585  
Old 03-02-2016, 15:28
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Forex trading plan for February 4

Oil remains one of the key topics with the continuing speculation about OPEC’s emergency meeting. Oman’s foreign minister said the meeting will be soon, though the time isn’t set yet. News from China improved (services sector growth picked up to a 6-month high in January), but the general risk sentiment remains negative. US ADP employment report showed that American economy added more jobs than expected (205K vs. the forecast of 193K).

EUR/USD jumped up. Eurozone retail sales have rebounded in December. Mario Draghi may try to discourage the bulls, when he speaks at 08:00 GMT on Thursday. Resistance is at 1.1050 (200-day MA). Support line is in the 1.0840 area and can attract buyers.

GBP/USD tested 1.4500. The cable was helped by the draft deal between Britain and the European Union and the UK services PMI, which came in line with expectations, at a rather good level. The results of the Bank of England’s meeting and quarterly inflation report are due at 12:00 GMT. No changes in policy of the central bank are expected. Governor Mark Carney will speak at 12:45 GMT. Remember that Carney’s last comments were dovish and for now the picture hasn’t changed enough for the regulator to change its position. This creates bearish risk for the pound. Resistance is at 1.4555 ahead of 1.4655. Support is at 1.4450/40.

USD/JPY fell for the third consecutive day: the positive impulse provided by the Bank of Japan is violated by the increased demand for the yen as a safe haven. The pair slid below 120.00, and we don’t recommend any long until the greenback is back above this mark. Support is at 118.15, 117.50 and 117.00. AUD/USD made this week a lower high around 0.7130. A close above 0.7120/50 is needed for Aussie to reverse to the upside. Support is at 0.7000 ahead of 0.6935.

https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7776
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  #1586  
Old 04-02-2016, 10:14
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The USD/JPY pair is diving towards the cloud
4 February 2016
Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

During yesterday’s trading session, the pair USD/JPY had lost almost three figures. That was caused by dollar’s weakening. By the end of the day, the bears have fallen off the market to the strong support of the 117th figure. As a result, consolidation movement in this area occurred this morning.

It is noteworthy that the trading is under a four-hour Ichimoku cloud now, and it is possible to restore the Tenkan-sen (118.90) soon. There is also the lower limit of the Ichimoku cloud follows, which will act as a resistance.

Technical levels: Support - 117.00; resistance - 118.90.

Trading recommendations:

1. Sell — 118.90; SL — 119.10; TP1 — 117.50; TP2 — 117.10.



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  #1587  
Old 04-02-2016, 10:30
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USD/CHF: sell target - 0.9900
4 February 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-USD/CHF reversed from strong resistance zone
-Next sell target - 0.9900

USD/CHF has been falling strongly in the last few trading sessions – following the earlier downward reversal from the resistance zone surrounding the major, long-term resistance level 1.0200 (which previously reversed the price sharply at the start of 2015 and also in November of 2015, as you can see from the weekly USD/CHF chart below). If the price closes this week near the current levels – it will form the 3rd consecutive weekly reversal pattern Bearish Engulfing.

USD/CHF is currently approaching the parity. If the pair breaks below the parity - USD/CHF will then, most likely, fall to the next sell target at the support level 0.9900.



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  #1588  
Old 04-02-2016, 11:17
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The USD/JPY pair is diving towards the cloud
4 February 2016
Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

During yesterday’s trading session, the pair USD/JPY had lost almost three figures. That was caused by dollar’s weakening. By the end of the day, the bears have fallen off the market to the strong support of the 117th figure. As a result, consolidation movement in this area occurred this morning.

It is noteworthy that the trading is under a four-hour Ichimoku cloud now, and it is possible to restore the Tenkan-sen (118.90) soon. There is also the lower limit of the Ichimoku cloud follows, which will act as a resistance.

Technical levels: Support - 117.00; resistance - 118.90.

Trading recommendations:

1. Sell — 118.90; SL — 119.10; TP1 — 117.50; TP2 — 117.10.



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  #1589  
Old 04-02-2016, 21:59
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Forex trading plan for February 5

By Kira Iukhtenko

Demand for the US Dollar remained low on Thursday, but there is high probability that the recent wave of selling will be over soon. On Friday markets will focus on a block of the US labor market figures. According to the official forecast, the US economy added 189K new jobs in January (below 292K in December, but still enough for a Fed’s rate hike in March). You should also pay attention to the average hourly earnings (forecast – upbeat).

EUR/USD surged above 1.1200, but you may see from the RSI indicator that the pair is overbought. Selling at current levels seems to be an attractive idea. Note that the pair broke above the 55-week MA, but this level acted as a resistance for a couple of times. Will the bulls be strong enough to close the weekly candle higher? Support is seen at 1.1050/00. Watch the German factory orders on Friday.

GBP/USD remains highly volatile. On Thursday, the market was disappointed by the BOE meeting results – this time 9 out of 9 BOE members voted to leave rates unchanged. Chances for a BOE rate hike in 2016 remain very low. Watch the 1.4530 support (38.2% Fibonacci from the recent decline).

AUD/USD extends the upside. On Wednesday we’ve seen a strong bullish candle on the daily chart. However, any decline in risk appetite will hurt your ling positions badly – the buying positions are overstretched. Tomorrow watch the RBA monetary policy statement and the Australian retail sales figures.

USD/JPY keeps on declining. The pair is forming a bullish engulfing on a weekly chart. Key support is seen at 116 yen – this is a psychological level where the BOJ is expected to intervene.

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  #1590  
Old 06-02-2016, 09:42
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US Dollar: forecast for February 8-14

By Kira Iukhtenko

The US dollar had been weakening against all the major currencies last week on the back of the weak data and dovish comments of the Fed’s member Dudley. According to the futures market, the chance for a Fed’s rate hike in March fell to 13%.

However, labor market figures rendered support to the US currency on Friday. NFP came below the forecast, while unemployment fell to 4.9%. What’s more, average hourly earnings rose by 0.5%.

Next week Chinese markets will be closed, so lack of stress from this area could support the US dollar. The Fed’s chief Janet Yellen will present the semiannual monetary policy report in Congress on Wednesday and Thursday. On Friday, watch the US retail sales figures. What’s more, some more US “blue chips” will publish their quarterly reports next week.



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  #1591  
Old 06-02-2016, 09:56
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GBP/USD: forecast for February 8-14

By Kira Iukhtenko

The cable rose by 450 pips at the beginning of the week amid the global USD selloff. However, the pound’s rally was capped by the BOE meeting on Thursday: the bank left rates unchanged and revised the economic forecasts to the downside. The market is no longer expecting a rate hike in 2016.

From the technical viewpoint, the cable is now testing the trend line support at 1.4500. This is also 38.2% Fibonacci from the December-January decline. Pay attention to the “doji” candle formed on Friday – it signals that the market has formed a local top at 1.4665.

UK economic calendar is going to be rather light next week. December trade balance will be published on Tuesday and On Wednesday, watch the manufacturing production data.

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Old 08-02-2016, 09:36
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EUR/USD: forecast for February 8-14

The euro took advantage of the broad weakness in the US dollar. EUR/USD made a breakthrough to the upside and crushed several important resistance levels on the way. One of the main reasons of such rapid increase in the euro is the covering of massive short positions. Economic data from the euro area remain weak. On Friday, though, US labor market data made traders buy American currency back.

Resistance is at 1.1270 (76.8% Fibo of the October-November decline), 1.1300 (23.6% Fibo of the 2014-2015 decline) and 1.1330. A break here can open the way to 1.1440/50. Support switched up to 1.1100, 1.1050 and 1.1000.

Let’s look at the euro’s rate in general, not only against the US dollar. The single currency’s effective exchange rate against a trade-weighted basket of 38 other currencies is at maximum since the start of 2015 or, in other words, before Mario Draghi formally announced the European Central Bank’s quantitative-easing program.

High euro is very unwelcome for the European economy and is an obstacle for the ECB to reach 2% inflation target. Yet, 2 speeches of the ECB president this week didn’t discourage the bulls. Draghi spoke of weaker inflation and increased risks hinting at the central bank’s policy easing in March. However, it seems that vague promises of March are not enough to weaken the euro.

Decline below 1.1040 will return strength to the bears, but 1.0900 should limit the euro on the downside.

Next week the most important piece of data will be released on Friday: euro area’s and German Q4 GDP. The region’s finance ministers will meet on Thursday and Friday. The ECB officials may try verbal interventions to limit the euro on the upside.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eaAL5_SQnLw

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  #1593  
Old 08-02-2016, 09:52
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USD/JPY: forecast for February 8-14

USD/JPY erased gains made after the Bank of Japan’s meeting at the end of January and approached 116.00. Stronger yen was negative for Japanese stocks, which lost about 6% during a week. On Friday US dollar got support of the American labor market data: the unemployment rate declined, while average earnings growth accelerated. Yet, we think that it will now be harder for the pair to regain the upside: the market fears that the BOJ actions to encourage inflation and weaken the yen won’t work.

Note Chinese markets will be closed next week because of the lunar New Year holidays. The market’s risk sentiment can improve, as the People’s Bank of China will probably try to keep the yuan stable. Also watch news out of the US, primarily speeches of the Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen on Wednesday and Thursday.

Support is at 116.00 (psychological level), 115.50 (bottom of 2015 trading range), 114.80 (100-week MA) and 114.00 (bottom of the weekly Cloud). Resistance is at 118.80 and 120.00. Japanese economic calendar once again is light with only current account on Monday and 30-y bond auction on Tuesday.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3sJ8eAU7rp4

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  #1594  
Old 08-02-2016, 10:12
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USD/JPY: buy target - 118.00
8 February 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-USD/JPY reversed from pivotal support level 116.50
-Next buy target - 118.00

USD/JPY recently reversed up from the pivotal support level 116.50 (which reversed previous waves (A) and 1 in October and January, as you can see from the daily USD/JPY chart below). When this support level reversed the price in the middle of January the pair formed the strong double Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern - Bullish Engulfing, the first candle of which is the daily Hammer.

The last time the price reversed up from the support level 116.50 the pair formed the daily Japanese candlestick reversal pattern Long-legged Doji. Given the strength of the support level 116.50 - USD/JPY is likely to rise to the next buy target at the resistance level 118.00.



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  #1595  
Old 08-02-2016, 12:07
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GBP/AUD: sell target - 2.0200
8 February 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-GBP/AUD falling inside impulse wave 3
-Next sell target - 2.0200

GBP/AUD continues to fall after the recent downward reversal from the resistance zone lying between the pivotal resistance level 2.0530 (which has been reversing the price from the end of January, as you can see below) and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the previous sharp downward impulse wave from the start of January. The downward reversal from this resistance zone continues the active minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate (C)-wave from last November.

GBP/AUD is likely to fall further in the active impulse waves 3 and (C) toward the next sell target at the support level 2.0200 (which reversed the price last week).



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  #1596  
Old 09-02-2016, 15:43
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  #1597  
Old 10-02-2016, 13:02
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Forex trading plan for February 10

By Elizabeth Belugina

The market is risk averse. Asian stocks fell with Japanese Nikkei 225 made the biggest decline since May 2013. As markets in China, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea stay closed for Lunar New Year holidays, liquidity contracted and price moves have become more volatile.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) went out with a report, according to which the possibility of an emergency meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC countries is very low. The IEA expects oil stocks to keep increasing in 2016 and prices to remain under pressure – obviously, bad news for oil. Brent tested levels below $33 a barrel. US crude oil inventories are due at 15:30 GMT on Wednesday.

The worries of the market are deeper than falling commodities and the negative impact on emerging nations. Investors fear that loose monetary policy of central banks won’t help to encourage growth in advanced economies. EUR, JPY and CHF are bought as safe haven currencies. Still, the ECB and the Bank of Japan certainly don’t welcome such dynamics, and there’s a high risk of verbal interventions from their authorities.

The highlight of the day will be the Federal Reserve’s Chairwoman Janet Yellen testimony to the Congress at 15:00 GMT. The main question that interests the market is how many rate hike the Fed will do this year. The most likely scenario is that Yellen will sound the same as her deputy Stanley Fisher, who spoke a week ago. Fisher acnowledged growing global volatility and was cautious about the rate hikes. Note that traders are quite ready for such an announcement – it is already priced in – so the main risk for the market is that Yellen is more positive.

USD/JPY tested 114.20 approaching the key support area of 114.00/113.95 (bottom of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud, 23.6% of 2011-2015 advance). Dovish Yellen will increase pressure on support making dollar continue sliding against the yen. Note that the move below 113.95 will confirm a reversal. There won’t be much of support for a long time. If Yellen is more optimistic than expected, USD/JPY will try to re-settle above 116.00. EUR/USD may test resistance at 1.1300, 1.1340 and 1.1440. Support is at 1.1150. British pound doesn’t have much strength in the current environment and should attract sellers on attempts to recover. The UK will release manufacturing production at 09:30 GMT. Resistance is at 1.4500/25 and 1.4660, while support is at 1.4340 ahead of 1.4228. Technical picture for AUD/USD became more bearish. There’s still support at 0.7000 before 0.6935. The bulls may try to slow and reverse the decline on the run up and after Yellen’s comments.

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  #1598  
Old 10-02-2016, 13:20
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EUR/USD: technical analysis
10 February 2016



The EUR/USD has found a resistance at the levels 1.1305 and 1.1352. Afterwards, the price entered into a phase of consolidation, which can turn out to a reversal "V" top pattern. In the short-term we can expect a downward movement to the upper side of the support area (1.1145 - 1.1032), but then the market may to continue growing towards a resistance area between the levels 1.1394 - 1.1439.



The price has formed a local "V" top pattern. The pair has been consolidating between a resistance at 1.1352 and a support at 1.1245. With this, it’s very likely that we will see the downward movement towards a support area between the levels 1.1214 - 1.1162. If the price starts rising from this levels, the market can continue growing towards a range between the support levels 1.1377 - 1.1394.

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  #1599  
Old 10-02-2016, 13:37
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GBP/CAD: buy target - 2.0200
10 February 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-GBP/CAD reached buy target 2.0100
-Next buy target - 2.0200

GBP/CAD recently rose sharply reaching the resistance level 2.0100, which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The price previously reversed up sharply from the major support level 1.9900 – forming two daily Japanese candlestick reversal patterns Hammer near this support level, as you can see from the daily GBP/CAD chart below. The previous upward reversal from 1.9900 stopped the previous minor correction 2 – starting the active impulse wave 3.

Given the strength of the support level 1.9900 - GBP/CAD can be expected to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 2.0200. Long entries are best opened at 1.9900 with the buy stop-loss placed below 1.9850.



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Old 10-02-2016, 13:54
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USD/CHF: sell target - 0.9700
10 February 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-USD/CHF reached sell target 0.9900
-Next sell target - 0.9700

USD/CHF recently fell sharply, breaking through the three consecutive support levels – 1.0000, 0.9900 (this support level was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair) and 0.9800 (low of the previous intermediate (A)-wave). Each of these support breaks intensified the bearish pressure on this currency pair - accelerating the active intermediate (C)-wave, which belongs to the primary ABC correction ② from the end of November.

USD/CHF might correct up to the recently broken price level 0.9800 (serving as resistance now after it was broken) – from where this currency pair can be sold with the sell target set at the support level 0.9700.



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