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Forex Forums | ForexLasers.com |
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#2
20-02-2009, 18:57
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Amazing bounce from todays lows. This could be short lived as the trend is still down, but above 1.2720 looks able to tackle upwards to the 1.3050/3100 highs. Interesting sessions ahead... especially with all the talk of bank nationalizations... yikes. Good weekend all.
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#3
23-02-2009, 21:54
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Euro headed back down to 1.2329
Hello,
My first post here, I have followed ash for quite awhile, but now I think I wil try to help some noobies, as I am not perfect, but have been trading for 3 years now and over the past year, have been pretty successful. Anyway, without further wasting anyones time, the euro will head back down toward the 1.2329 area that it hit arournd October last year, the 61.8% fib retrace was hit and then came back down and now continues, I think with my bit of experience we will see 1.2329 shortly maybe this week if not, early next week to complete a full retrace, only thing that could stop this continued fall would be a turnaround of world events, as everything is looking terrible in the world right now, yet the dollar continues to have strength, not real strength, but the only place people are throwing their money, due to perceived safety built from years of safety in the past, I think this will be true for a while maybe 6months more, as we see eur/usd eventually make its way to 1.15 maybe 1.10 and then parity. Just my opinion, no buy, sell, or hold recommendations. I tried to attach an image but cant figure out how, but just take a peek at day or week chart and draw a fib from 1.6035 down to 1.2329 and it is pretty clear as to what I see. hlass
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#4
27-02-2009, 17:49
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Sounds interesting. The EMA 3 and 5 crossed on the day and bounced off of the 13. Recrossed just after, looking like its still going down, just lost alot of steam.
My SAR PAR chart is showing almost a change in direction from up to down on the day. I figure that every time I try to predict the market, I lose. Just trying to follow the money trail and pick up the bits that fall behind.
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#6
01-03-2009, 17:05
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Quote:
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#7
02-03-2009, 14:12
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Quote:
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#15
24-03-2009, 11:05
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Well, as of today the EUR/USD has been up to 13,700 (depending on your broker!) but seemed to run aground there, and looks like it's heading lower until the end of the month, perhaps to 13,250 before moving up again.
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#16
24-03-2009, 11:39
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Quote:
I think that if we will see EU around 1.34 (the previus upper trendline before the breakout) It will bounce over 1.36 going to fill the gap to 1.47 (but not in the next few days).
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#17
24-03-2009, 15:28
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it wil be up more
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#21
13-09-2009, 08:54
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EUR / USD – Ride the momentum. EUR / USD will go to $1.50 as investors seek additional risk and sell lower yielding currencies in favor of higher yielding currencies. From the $1.45 point to $1.50, there is a lot of money to be made in the next month or two and there is a lot of trading history in this range from 11/08 to 3/09 and 8/09 to 9/09. $1.50 will be the key psychological barrier in the uptrend, but at this point $1.45 should provide key support levels. In general the dollar is declining against all the major currencies because the dollar is the cheapest funding currency and given how liquid it is, it is easy to trade against foreign markets. In addition, the Fed has been maintaining its commitment to a low interest policy whereby rates will not be raised until they are certain the US economy is coming out of the recession in a good shape. Bernanke is well aware of the risks of a double dip recession and doesn’t want to cut credit too soon so as to cause the US economy to contract again at the onset of it righting itself.
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#23
14-09-2009, 23:25
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or may be time to sell of
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#27
16-09-2009, 09:18
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In monitoring the dollar – it is hitting near-term lows against multiple currencies, Euro, Australian dollar, Brazilian real, etc. Clearly investors are thinking that economic conditions are improving and are more willing to take on risk. Yesterday, confirming this thought, Bernanke said the recession is likely over, causing the dollar to slide. Also, retail sales exceeded expectations, another sign of economic strength in the US. There is no reason to get out of this trade. Still long EUR / USD.
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#28
16-09-2009, 14:05
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Investors are finding additional reasons to move out of dollars and increase risk. First Bernanke said the US has moved out of recession and now Buffett. The market was priced in for a 0.6% gain in industrial production, while the report came in at a rise of 0.8%. Former Fed chief, Greenspan said if there was a significant issuance of Treasury securities (which it looks like there will be) that increased the national debt, then there would be of necessity downward pressure on the dollar. I’m still long euros against the dollar. It reached $1.4714 earlier today, the weakest level since December 18 – but couldn’t surpass that level. I think it will in the coming days.
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#29
17-09-2009, 06:56
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Europe’s trade surplus widened to the most in more than a year, providing further evidence that the economy is improving. The euro is my favorite currency right now. I believe that the euro zone will begin increasing interest rates far before the US does and it looks as if traders believe so as well, increasing bets that the ECB will raise the benchmark yield from 1% by the middle of next year: the implied yield on the 3 month Euribor futures contract for June 2010 delivery is now 1.255% from 1.225% yesterday – implying at 25 bps increase. Saw this quote as well, backing up my thoughts: “Given the fragility of the US economy, the Fed can’t normalize credit and monetary easing policies. The bulk of highly liquid dollar assets will continue to flow into other currencies or commodities, putting downward pressure on the dollar,” stated by Mitsuru Saito, chief economist in Tokyo at Tokai Tokyo Securities.
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#31
17-09-2009, 16:31
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Unexpected jobless claims drop in US to 545k from 557k a week earlier. Most importantly was the Street was expecting the number to come in this week at 557k. It’s tough not to continue to be long the Euro. At $1.4735 per euro, it’s the dollar’s weakest level since Sept 25, 2008. The good economic data continues to confirm this trend. I think the easiest thing to do right now is to continue to sell the dollar, however one technical indicator is starting to point against continued strength – the 14-day relative strength climbed to 74, the highest level since March 19. A reading of 70 tends to indicate a rally is approaching an extreme and a reversal may be imminent.
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#32
19-09-2009, 16:02
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GBP
very interesting ,
those UK news have made the GBP dropped, I am wondering what will happen when the market'll open, Be careful because at the opening the changes are most of the times quite significant. Base yourself on strong resistance and support levels...
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#33
22-09-2009, 15:19
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The DXY is a few pips away from breaking below the Sept 22, 2008 low of 75.89 – from there, there is very little support until 70. That was the level of support in early 2008 and is the low since the early 1970’s. Euro hit $1.4821 today, dollar’s lowest point in a year. There hasn’t been strong talk on the part of non-US central bankers and thoughts are that it isn’t causing such a concern. Also, increasing likely the Fed won’t raise rates. Everything points in the direction of – short the dollar.
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#34
23-09-2009, 08:05
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Fed policy statement due today, which should move currency markets. Investors continue to see positive news: Asian Development Bank raised its 2009 projection for Asian economic growth ex-Japan to 3.9% from 3.4%. Euro is at a new 12-month high. Swiss Franc is at a new 12-month high. New Zealand’s currency also. I expect the Fed to continue to give lip service to the fact that they will not be raising interest rates in the near future. Could be a volatile time if the Fed changes its stance, but I’m still short dollars.
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#35
24-09-2009, 08:03
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Yesterday the Fed pledged to keep interest rates in the US low and as a result we should see investors continue to use the dollar as a funding currency for riskier currencies and other assets. It also stated that there are signs that the US economy is improving, providing further cause for investors to pursue riskier assets. Although the dollar pulled back by the end of trading yesterday, it did hit a new high of $1.4845. I’m still long the dollar and I see it going to $1.50. The ECB is starting to get concerned about the strength of the euro, but it hasn’t intervened in the past at these levels.
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#36
24-09-2009, 13:09
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Strong EU and US data this morning should continue the EUR on its upswing vs. the USD. In the US: initial jobless claims unexpectedly decreased to 530k last week and in Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, it is lowering its planned 4th quarter issuance of debt by 22% because of a reduction in funding needs. The adjustment is because of improved funding conditions and reduced borrowing requirements. The euro continues to increase this morning and I expect further upside.
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#37
26-09-2009, 09:53
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dollar-end of the week
the end of the week celebrated the USD's come back! eur/usd fluctuated from 1.4720 to around 1.46---
Traders escaped from high yielding currencies, and long 'ed' the USD (decreasing home sales, US stocks, G20 meeting...)
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#38
29-09-2009, 14:06
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Citigroup says that the dollar’s weakness will probably slow as it has bounced off support levels and failed to extend beyond resistance levels. I would consider taking this trade off for the short-term, even though I am bearish on the dollar long term.
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#40
30-09-2009, 07:49
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The US data disappointed yesterday with the consumer confidence number coming in lower than expected causing losses in US equities and a rally in the USD. A breach of the support level in the $1.45 to $1.453 area will be difficult. The employment number will be important, but I expect that employers cut fewer jobs and think the dollar will continue to show weakness. Investors are waiting for positive data to continue to sell dollars and improving job figures would boost that risky appetite. Also, Fed Chairman Kohn is expected to reiterate the need for low interest rates in the US for an extended period of time. I’m monitoring these two data points today.
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