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  #201  
Old 19-03-2017, 20:01
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Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and USDCHF for March 20 - 24, 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- The first part of the forecast for EUR/USD talked about the fall of the pair to 1.0600, which ended up happening by Tuesday evening. The fate of its future, as had been expected, was determined by the plethora of news from the USA on March 15. The Fed's decision on the interest rate, J. Yellen's press conference, and President D. Trump’s speech deployed the pair northward, as a result of which it approached December 2016-January 2017 highs in the 1.0775-1.0830 zone;

- Giving a forecast for GBP/USD, 60% of experts, along with graphical analysis on H4, sided with the bulls. They considered that the pair had already reached the local bottom and was now awaiting a rebound upwards to the resistance of 1.2300, and beyond to 1.2385. The forecast proved 100% correct, with the pair completing the week at 1.2400;

- USD/JPY. Here, the opinions of analysts were divided exactly halfway - 50% were in favour of the growth of the pair and 50% were for its fall. The argument of the latter was that 114.75 constituted the upper boundary of the eight-week lateral channel and was impenetrable as a resistance level, as a result of which the pair would have to go down to the support at 112.60. This scenario occurred with 100% accuracy.

- As for USD/CHF, despite the bullish mood of most experts, the forecast foresaw the possibility of a breakdown of the lower boundary of the six-week upward channel, which was what happened due to the decision, forecasts and comments of the US Federal Reserve. In the event of such a development, it had been assumed that the pair would find its local minimum at 0.9966. It was in this zone that the pair ended up completing the weekly session.

***
Forecast for the coming week:
Summarizing the views of a number of analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:

- Although 15% of oscillators on D1 indicate the EUR/USD is overbought, the overwhelming majority of indicators points strictly northwards. Analysts' opinions are divided almost equally, 40% support the growth of the pair, 40% its fall, and 20% foresee a sideways trend. Graphical analysis on D1 offers the compromise view. According to this, the pair will be moving in the 1.0640 - 1.0850 channel in the near future. At the same time, graphical analysis on H4 also spells out a strong support level at the horizon of 1.0700. When it comes to the medium-term forecast, 70% of experts expect the pair to fall to February lows in the 1.0500 zone, and possibly 150 below that;

- In contrast to the previous pair, almost 30% of the oscillators on both H4 and D1 indicate that GBP/USD is overbought. This bearish stance is supported by about 65% of experts and graphical analysis on H4. In their view, the pair has reached the local maximum and they now expect it to decline to 1.2100. An alternative scenario is possible in case of breakthrough of resistance 1.2400. In this case, the pair will begin a lateral movement in the 1.2385-1.2570 range. At the same time, 10% of analysts believe that it may even rise to 1.2700;

- USD/JPY is now close to the strong medium-term support level of 112.60. That is why the majority (60%) of experts expect its rebound to the upper boundary of the side channel of 2017 in the area of 115.00. However, graphical analysis warns that before the start of the rise the bears may take over for a certain period. Because of that, the pair would fall to the February-March lows of around 111.60;

- As for the last pair of our review, USD/CHF, apparently, its fall last week made a strong impression on the experts. 70% of them expect it to continue plummeting to at least the support at 0.9870-0.9900. However, afterwards, according to the overwhelming majority of these experts, the pair will resume an uptrend and rush back upwards to 1.0330.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options
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  #202  
Old 25-03-2017, 21:16
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Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and USDCHF for 27 - 31 March 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- Speaking of the EUR/USD last week, analysts were not able to give a clear forecast. Indeed, the pair behaved quite sluggishly, and neither the meeting of the ECB, nor the speech of the Head of the Fed, nor even the Trump administration’s landmark vote in the US Congress on the healthcare reform and repeal of Obamacare, could make it more dynamic. The pair's volatility kept within 100 points. As it turned out, the most accurate forecast was given by graphic analysis, denoting a strong support at the 1.0700 horizon (in reality, the pair dropped to 1.0720) and the 1.0850 resistance (in reality, there followed a rise to 1.0824);

- Regarding the forecast for GBP/USD, the alternative scenario occurred, supported by 35% of the experts. As they expected, the pair continued the upward trend and climbed up to 1.2530, and came close to the highs of this February;

- USD/JPY. Here, graphical analysis, along with 40% of analysts, expected a fall of the pair to the lows of February-March in the area of 111.60. However, the bears’ striving towards the south was so strong that they were able to break through this support and push down the pair by another 100 points. After that the bears ran out of strength, and the pair passed into the sideways trend within the range 110.62-111.57;

- Evaluating the future of the pair USD/CHF, most experts agreed that it would continue to decline to the area of 0.9870-0.9900, and this forecast was correct by 100%. On Wednesday 22nd March the pair reached the local bottom at 0.9880, and completed the week-long session at around 0.9911.

***
Forecast for the coming week:
Summarizing the views of a number of analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. At the end of last week, the pair almost reached the upper border of the corridor, which was launched back in November 2016. That is why most experts (60%), supported by graphical analysis and oscillators on D1, believes that a further growth of the pair, although possible, but will be negligible, and, having reached the 1.0850-1.0900 area, it is sure to make a U-turn towards the south. According to the remaining 40% of analysts, the bulls have run out of strength and in the next week the pair is expected to decrease first to the level of 1.0650, and then even lower - to the support of 1.0520;

- A similar forecast can be made for the GBP/USD. It is possible that for some time the pair may stay in the range of 1.2420-1.2570, but then, according to 85% of analysts, it will fall to the March lows in the 1.2100-1.2200 area. One should bear in mind that on Wednesday March 29th the British government is expected to launch the Brexit process and the reaction of major players in the market at that point in time could produce some surprises to traders;

- When forecasting the future of USD/JPY, indicators, supported by graphical analysis on D1, vote for the downward trend to continue and for the pair to go down to the 108.00-109.00 zone. As for the experts, their opinions are divided equally – half support the fall, while half support the growth of the pair. If we take a look at the medium-term forecast, supporters of the movement to the north prevail significantly - about 75% of analysts vote for the pair's return to the upper boundary of the 2017 sideways channel at the height of 115.00-115.50;

- As for the USD/CHF pair, both experts and graphical analysis expect that it will continue to mirror the behaviour of EUR/USD. Thus, it is not excluded to temporarily go down to the 0.9860-0.9880 zone with a subsequent rise in an attempt to reach a height of 1.0330. About 70% of analysts voted for such a scenario.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets – they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options
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  #203  
Old 01-04-2017, 19:21
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Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 03 - 07 April 2017
First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- The forecast for EUR/USD proved to be 100% accurate. Recall that the main scenario we laid out was the following: the pair’s continued growth was seen to be entirely possible albeit negligible in magnitude. Once it reached the 1.0850-1.0900 area, it would U-turn to southwards. We named 1.0650 as the nearest support. Everything occurred exactly as described: reaching the height of 1.0905 as early as Monday, the pair turned sharply and flying with a little breather 255 points, finished the week at the mark specified by experts - 1.0650;

- In the forecast for GBP/USD, analysts pointed out that the pair may stay in the 1.2420-1.2570 channel for a while. In fact, the borders of this channel ended up being 45 points wider: within a couple of weeks, the pair ranged from the minimum of 1.2375 to 1.2615 at the maximum, ending the session near a strong medium-term level of resistance in the 1.2550-1.2570 zone;

- Giving the forecast for USD/JPY, half of the experts supported the pair’s fall, and the other half its growth. That was exactly what happened. Having broken the strong support at 111.60 two weeks ago, the pair sank to 110.10 last week. It then turned around and returned to the very same support level, which now put a different hat on and became a resistance level;

- Assessing the behaviour of the pair USD/CHF last week, experts agreed that it would once again mirror the graph of the EUR/USD fluctuations. Once again, they were right: dropping to 0.9813 on Monday, the pair then turned and, having overcome 217 points, reached the height of 1.0030 on Friday.

***
Forecast for the coming week:
Summarizing the views of a number of analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. More than 80% of experts vote for the pair displaying a downwards trend, indicating the 1.0600 support as the nearest target. After that, the pair is likely to descend to 1.0525, and then even lower to the lows of February and March around 1.0495. At the same time, about one third of oscillators indicate that the pair is oversold. Connected with this there might be a temporary correction and an upwards rebound of the pair to the 1.0750-1.0775 zone. This is confirmed by the readings of graphic analysis on H4. The existence of negative expectations for the US dollar is also associated with changes in the United States employment rates(NFP), the data for which will be announced on Friday, 7 April. Thus, according to some forecasts, the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector could diminish from 235K to 175K;

- Whilst the opinions of analysts and technical analysis on the previous pair mostly coincide, their discrepancy is jarring when it comes to GBP/USD: more than 90% of indicators point to the growth of the pair, whilst over 80% of experts continue to insist on its fall. The trends for this pair will most likely be determined by rumours about the terms of the UK’s exit from the EU for a quite some time. The support levels for next week are 1.2375, 1.2200 and 1.2110, whilst the resistance levels are 1.2675 and 1.2725;

- Predicting the future of USD/JPY, both trend indicators and oscillators alongside with graphical analysis on D1 point to the pair’s lateral movement in the 110.10-112.75 channel. Analysts, however, display a steady rise in bullishness amongst their ranks: at the time of writing the forecast the proportion of bull supporters has already exceeded 70%. 113.55 and 115.20 are named as the main targets;

- Supporters of the growth of USD/CHF now also exceed 70% of analysts: they name 1.0100 as the short-term target, with the next one being 1.0170. As for graphical analysis, its readings on H4 show that the nearest support level is 0.9980, followed by 0.9950, and that the week’s bottom-point is in the 0.9920 area.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options
https://youtu.be/hNFt_02SUuI
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  #204  
Old 09-04-2017, 11:32
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Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 10 - 14 April 2017
First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week, which has been fulfilled if not by 100, then by 90 percent for all four pairs:
- Regarding the forecast for EUR/USD, it proved to be 100% accurate. Recall that over 80% of experts voted for the downward trend for this pair, indicating the 1.0600 support as a target. This was reached by the end of the week. However, we had also voiced some negative sentiment concerning the dollar in connection with the fall in US employment numbers (NFP). This also materialised, but the bullish force in this case was only enough to lift the pair to 1.0666. A minute later, it returned to the general trend and continued to fall;
- As for the forecast for GBP/USD, the analysts once again turned out to be right. 80% of them insisted on its fall, indicating 1.2375 as the nearest support level. The pair ended last week’s session next to precisely this level;
- Predicting the future of USD/ PY, trend indicators, oscillators, and graphical analysis all indicated the lateral movement of this pair in the 110.10-112.75 channel. This prediction also came true, with a small correction caused by the fact that the oscillation range was slightly smaller than expected, being 110.12-111.58;
- The proportion of supporters of USD/CHF growth among experts exceeded 70%, and 1.0100 was named as a target. Indeed, the pair started rushing up since mid-Monday. By Friday evening it conquered the height of 1.0096, short of the cherished mark by just 4 points.
***
Forecast for the coming week:
Summarizing the views of a number of analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
- EUR/USD. The number of supporters of the idea that the pair can rebound from the horizon 1.0600 is growing, and 40% of experts already believe that it should at least temporarily rise to 1.0750. This version is supported both by graphical analysis on H4 and D1, and by oscillators, about half of which indicate on H4 that the pair is oversold. As for the medium-term forecast, over 75% of analysts look southwards awaiting the pair to drop to the 1.0400-1.0500 zone, and perhaps even lower;
- Assessing the prospects of GBP/USD, more than 70% of experts sided with the bears. Both indicators and graphical analysis agree with this point of view, naming 1.2330 as the nearest support level. The next support level is in the 1.2240 zone. It should be noted that the pair is currently in a zone with rather strong medium-term support, which also comprises the Pivot level for the side channel 1.1980-1.2730, which was laid out last October. Thus, we cannot exclude its rebound to the 1.2450-1.2500 area.
- If last week 70% of analysts spoke of the growth of USD/JPY, their number has now increased to 90%. The targets remain identical: 112.00 and 113.55. However, the pair will be able to reach these targets only at the end of April or in early May. As for the immediate future, everybody — experts, graphic analysis and indicators — expects the pair to retest the local bottom at 110.00;
- Elation continues to reign in the camp of USD/CHF growth supporters, which currently includes approximately 75% of experts. The next targets after the pair reaches the 1.0100 mark are identified as 1.0170 and 1.0215. An alternative point of view is voiced by about a quarter of analysts and graphical analysis on H4. According to them, the pair will continue to move downwards in the medium channel (clearly visible on D1 and W1, started in December 2016) and will shortly start striving towards its centre line in the 0.9950 vicinity.
Roman Butko, NordFX
Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.
#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options
https://youtu.be/hNFt_02SUuI
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  #205  
Old 17-04-2017, 09:39
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Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 17 - 21 April 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- Seeing that EUR/USD had been oversold, both analysts and technical analysis expected it to bounce up, which is what happened. However, the bullish force in this case was only powerful enough to lift the pair to 1.0690 (as opposed to the expected 1.0750), after which the pair fell to the support area near 1.0610;

- A rebound of GBP/USD was expected as well. The reason for this forecast was the area of a strong medium-term support, which the pair had been near to. The height of 1.2500 was named as a target: the pair reached it in the first half of the week, and subsequently decided to take a break for almost a day. Then, having gathered its forces, it rose by another 75 points, reaching the height of 1.2575 on Thursday;

- As for the future of USD/JPY, everyone - experts, graphical analysis, and indicators - expected the pair to retest the local minimum at 110.00. The minimum did indeed turn out to be local: the pair easily overcame this barrier and fell by another 140 points by the end of the weekly session;

- USD/CHF. Here, about one quarter of analysts and graphical analysis on H4 expected that the pair would continue to move in the downward medium-term channel (this channel started in December 2016 and is clearly visible on D1 and W1), and would strive to reach its centre line in the 0.9950 area. The pair did indeed move southwards the entire week, resting on the upper boundary of the channel; it could not, however, overcome the symbolic support at 1.0000 and completed the week-long session near the 1.0050 horizon.

***
Forecast for the coming week:
Summarizing the views of a number of analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Here most analysts (60%), supported by nearly 90% of indicators, still side with the bears, waiting for the pair’s fall to the 1.0500 zone. An alternative point of view is expressed by graphical analysis on H4 as well as 40% of experts. According to them, the pair, whilst moving in the medium-term rising channel that began in December 2016, will first grow to 1.0690 and then by another 130 points to 1.0820;

- in the medium term, nearly 80% of experts expect a falling GBP/USD (support 1.2420, 1.2360 and 1.2110). As for the immediate future, most analysts (60%), supported by both oscillators and trend indicators, lean towards the view that the upward momentum has not yet been exhausted, and that the pair will reach at least 1.2615. The next resistance is at 1.2375;

- there is a discrepancy between the weekly and medium-term forecasts for USD/JPY as well. So, if in the short term, 70% of analysts speak of the continuation of the downward trend to 107.50-107.85, the monthly and quarterly forecasts point northwards. The targets remain the same: 112.00 and 113.55. As for technical analysis, here the forces are distributed in the following way: graphical analysis on D1, 100% of trend indicators and 95% of oscillators side with the bears. On the side of the bulls, 5% of the oscillators that fix the extent of the pair’s overselling and graphical analysis on H4 both predict its growth to 110.50;

- USD/CHF. For the week to come, half of the analysts, along with graphical analysis and trend indicators on H4, expect the pair to move in the lateral channel of 1.0008-1.0100. The other half of experts, supported by the oscillators on H4, vote for its descent into the 0.9980 zone. As for the medium-term forecast, here almost 60% of analysts look northwards to 1.0170. Both oscillators and trend indicators on D1 agree with this point of view.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options
https://youtu.be/hNFt_02SUuI
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  #206  
Old 22-04-2017, 11:17
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Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 24-28 April 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- In the opinion of almost half of the experts (40%), supported by graphical analysis on H4, the pair EUR/USD, which has been moving in the medium-term rising channel that began in December 2016, had been expected to rise to 1.0690, and then by yet another 130 points. It turned out that the pair indeed immediately went northwards, starting from Monday; on Tuesday, it broke through the resistance at 1.0690 and, having turned it into a support level, the pair reached 1.0780. After this, the bulls’ energy dried up, and the pair returned to the 1.0690 zone by the end of the week’s session;

- A rebound had been expected for GBP/USD. Most analysts, supported by oscillators and trend indicators, had been inclined towards the view that the pair’s upward propulsion had not yet been exhausted and that it could reach the height of 1.2705. Not many expected the powerful support British Prime Minister Teresa May gave the bulls in announcing snap parliamentary elections. Because of such support, the pair soared almost 400 points, only stopping at 1.2904. After that, it turned and slowly descended to the strong Pivot level which the pair has been fluctuating since June 2016;

- USD/JPY. Here there was a discrepancy between the weekly and the medium-term forecasts: the former pointed southwards, the latter to the north. As a result, the pair moved in the side channel 108.10 -109.20 for almost the entire week, dominated slightly by bullish trends. It was the bulls who tried to break the upper boundary of this channel at the end of the week. However, this breakthrough was unsuccessful, since, having risen by only 30 points, the pair quickly returned to the sideways corridor;

- Unlike EUR/USD, USD/CHF reacted rather violently to the British Prime Minister’s announcement. Whilst half of the experts along with the oscillators had expected its fall to the level of 0.9980, in reality the local minimum ended up being 40 points lower. However, the pair "changed its mind" afterwards and returned to where the analysts had indicated: the zone 0.9980.

***

Forecast for the coming week:
Summarizing the views of a number of analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made based on a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:

- The ECB and the Bank of Japan rate decisions should prove unsurprising. The presidential elections in France, however, may cause increased volatility. It is also possible, though, that there will be no sharp exchange rate jumps, especially if the vote reaches the second round. Uncertainty related to these elections has led to uncertainty in experts’ opinions. Thus, in giving their weekly forecast for EUR/USD, one third of them thought the pair will grow, one third has spoken of a fall and one third of a sideways trend. If we now turn to the medium-term forecast, here already 65% of experts, supported by graphical analysis, vote for the pair falling, indicating 1.0500 and 1.0350 as target levels. An alternative view is represented by 35% of analysts and indicators on D1, according to which the pair must return to the highs of February-March 2017;

- In the medium term, nearly 85% of experts continue to expect GBP/USD to fall (support levels are 1.2575, 1.2490, 1.2365). As for the immediate future, the situation is different: only 30% of analysts vote for its fall. The others expect it to return to the previous week’s highs and to fix in the 1.2900-1.3000 area. Both graphical analysis on H4, and indicators on D1 agree with this prospect. Only 10% of oscillators yet indicate that the pair is overbought;

- There still remains an obvious discrepancy between the week-long and medium-term forecasts for USD/JPY as well. So, if in the short term 60% of analysts speak about its fall, the monthly and quarterly forecasts are oriented northwards. The targets are the same: 112.00 and 113.55. As for technical analysis, graphical analysis and oscillators on H4 show the continuation of the pair's lateral movement in the 108.30-109.50 channel;

- Regarding USD/CHF, the battle here is between experts and indicators. 80% of analysts believe that the pair is sure to grow to the 1.0000-1.0100 zone, and 85% of oscillators and trend indicators on D1 expect it to drop. A compromise is offered by graphical analysis, which points first to the growth of the pair to 1.0050 and then to its fall to the local minimum of 0.9940.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options
https://youtu.be/hNFt_02SUuI
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  #207  
Old 30-04-2017, 08:08
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Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 01 - 05 May 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- When giving the forecast for EUR/USD, 35% of experts and indicators on D1 insisted that it should return to the highs of February and March 2017. This is what happened in response to the first round of the French presidential elections. Having established an impressive gap at the opening of the weekly session, the pair rose to 1.0900, where it spent the whole week, turning this level into a Power Point;

- after an inspiring leap upwards on 18 March, GBP/USD reacted calmly to the elections in France: there were no gaps and, instead, there was a smooth increase by 180 points during the week. The roots of this growth are at the support at 1.2775, which used to be the upper limit of six-month long side channel;

- The French elections tsunami has reached the Japanese islands and has swept USD/JPY towards a strong medium-term support / resistance level around 111.60. It should be noted that analysts have long expected the growth of the pair to 112.00, to which it came very close: it checked out on Wednesday at the height of 111.77;

- The gap at the beginning of the week gave additional strength to the bears. Hence, the pair USD/CHF continued its downward trend, which began on April 10. The pair fell by almost 100 points, reaching the local bottom at 0.9893, and then it turned and finished the week at the level of 0.9950.

***

Forecast for the coming week:
Summarizing the views of a number of analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made based on a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:

- Regarding the indicators, in predicting the future of the EUR/USD, more than 80% of them are oriented northwards, pointing to 1.1120 as the target height. However, one third of oscillators on D1 have already indicated that the pair is overbought. Expert opinions regarding its nearest future are almost equally divided: 35% foresee the growth of the pair, 30% anticipate its fall and 35% predict a sideways trend. But in the medium term, the picture is quite different: here, 80% of experts vote for the fall of the pair to an initial support 1.0680 and a subsequent one of 1.0570;

- GBP/USD. It is for the second week running that the pair moves in the corridor that separates the two side channels: the upper one of July-October 2016, and lower one of October 2016 - April 2017. 65% of the experts believe that the pair will be unable to overcome the resistance of 1.3055 and will return to the channel’s lower boundary as early as in the first half of May. Support levels are 1.2570, 1.2375 and 1.2130. An alternative point of view is supported by 35% of analysts who predict that the immediate goals for the pair are 1.3370 and 1.3445. As for the graphical analysis, on H4 it points to a sideways trend in the range of 1.2775-1.3055;

- USD/JPY. Finally, analysts' opinions are aligned with the indicator readings, and more than 80% of them predict a continuation of the upward trend for this pair. The main goals are 113.55 and 115.50. This does not exclude a short-term slide of the pair to the 110.00 horizon;

- as often happens, the future of USD/CHF represents a mirror image of the EUR/USD. And if, in the short term, 75% of experts speak about the continuation of the downward trend, when giving a medium-term forecast 70% of them see growth. There are support levels at 0.9920, 0.9890 and 0.9820. The target heights are 1.0000 and 1.0100. As for graphical analysis, on H4 it points to the growth of the pair to 1.0040 in the coming days.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options
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  #208  
Old 07-05-2017, 13:59
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Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 08 - 12 May 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- Recall that the experts’ opinions on EUR/USD a week ago were divided almost equally: 35% supported the growth of the pair, 30% voted for its fall and 35% foresaw a sideways trend. At the same time, more than 80% of indicators were oriented to the north: they turned out to be right. The ECB President Mario Draghi' s speech, coupled with optimism about the second round of elections in France, provided the euro with such strong support that this pair chose to ignore even very positive data on the US labour market published on Friday 5 May. Thus, the pair finished the week session near 1.1000, having risen by about 100 points in five days;

- GBP/USD. 65% of experts, together with graphical analysis on H4, suggested that the pair would fail to overcome the resistance of 1.3055 and would stay in the side channel 1.2775-1.3055 for the entire week. This forecast proved to be quite accurate, although the pair's fluctuations proved even more sluggish than expected: as a result, the pair did not even manage to leave the 1.2830-1.2983 range;

- The forecast for the future of USD/JPY was surprising because of the fact that analysts' opinions coincided with indicator readings, which was something we had not seen for quite some time: more than 80% of them predicted a continuation of the uptrend for this pair. The forecast was 100% correct. Already on Thursday, having risen by 185 points, the pair managed to reach 113.00;

- The forecast for USD/CHF also turned out to be correct. The absolute majority of experts (75%) insisted on the continuation of the downtrend, identifying the levels of 0.9890 and 0.9820 as support levels. Thus, the pair fixed the local bottom near the middle of this range at 0.9858, and finished the week session at 0.9870.

***

Forecast for the coming week:
Summarizing the views of a number of analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:

- The forecast for EUR/USD resembles the one that was given last week. More than 90% of indicators point northwards, while at the same time one third of oscillators on D1 signal the pair is overbought. As for analysts, a good 65% of them believe that the pair will try to secure a position above 1.0930 and 1.0850. And, just like last week, the medium-term forecast directly opposes the weekly one: here more than 60% of experts still expect the pair to fall into the 1.0400-1.0600 zone;

- Analysts express a similar opinion about the future of GBP/USD. The forecast for the coming days is as follows: 60% predict the growth of the pair, 40% predict its fall. The medium-term forecast, meanwhile, has 75% standing behind the fall of the pair and only 25% foreseeing its growth. Graphical analysis and almost 80% of trend indicators and oscillators agree with both the short and medium-term outlooks. The target for the coming days is the 1.3100-1.3150 zone, and the support levels are 1.2835 and 1.2770. In the medium term, we can expect a drop to the levels of 1.2570, 1.2375 and 1.2130;

- USD/JPY. The majority (60%) of experts believe that, seeing as the pair has reached the upper boundary of the descending channel that began at the end of December 2016, it should now be expected to descend. Graphical analysis on H4 and D1 agrees with such a forecast: according to its readings, the pair can fall first to 111.55, and then, after a short rebound, even further southwards to the 108.50 mark. An alternative point of view is represented by 40% of experts who, along with the indicators, expect the pair to grow to 115.00;

- Once again, the future of USD/CHF is expected to be a mirror image of EUR/USD: it will first go southwards to the support level of 0.9800, and then perform a 180-degree turn in order to return to the 1.0000-1.0100 zone. This scenario is supported by about 70% of analysts. However, in addition to the elections in France, whose results we expect to be announced on Monday, the second half of the week will also be filled with important economic and political events that are likely to affect the world’s major currencies. Thus, the most pessimistic forecast for the US dollar, supported by 30% of experts, does not exclude the fall of USD/CHF to 0.9550.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  #209  
Old 14-05-2017, 12:39
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Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 15 - 19 May 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- Recall that the experts' forecasts regarding the behaviour of EUR/USD in the short and medium term were fully opposed. Thus, in the first case, most of them favoured the growth of the pair, whilst in the second they favoured its fall. And, as it often happens, the medium-term forecast turned out to be the most accurate: until Thursday, the pair moved in a downtrend, losing more than 180 points over this period. However, on Friday, data on retail sales in the US was released, which played into the hands of bulls: instead of the expected 0.6%, consumer spending growth was only 0.4%: as a result, the pair drastically launched northwards and froze near the strong medium-term resistance line at 1.0932;

- A similar discrepancy among analysts was observed with respect to the future of GBP/USD. Apart from that, it was projected that the nearest support was at the level of 1.2835, and the resistance was 1.3100. However, just like two weeks ago, the pair ended up behaving more calmly than expected; it stayed within 1.2843-1.2986;

- For almost two months we have been stating in each of our forecasts for USD/JPY that experts are expecting its return first to 113.55, and then to 115.00. The pair has finally conquered the first of these heights and came close to the second one, reaching 114.36 just this week. After this victory, the strength of the bulls dried up, and the pair retreated downwards by 100 points, finishing the week at 113.35;

- An absolute majority (70%) of analysts expected the pair USD/CHF to return to the 1.0000-1.0100 zone. This forecast turned out to be 100% true: the maximum of this week ended up being 1.0098, and the pair met the end of the week’s session at 1.0007.

***
Forecast for the coming week:
Summarizing the views of a number of analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The calendar for the upcoming week is not marked by any special economic or political events. This might be the reason why more than 50% of analysts, supported by almost half of the oscillators at D1, predict a lateral movement of this pair. The second fairly large group of experts (about 40%) believes that the pair will again test the height of 1.1000. 10% of experts still believe, though, that the pair will immediately head to the south. Interestingly, their point of view is supported by graphical analysis and almost half of the oscillators on H4, which indicate that this pair is overbought. Moreover, in the medium term, 65% of analysts expect it to fall. The nearest support is 1.0850, the medium-term goal is to return to the 1.0500-1.0680 zone;

- As for the future of GBP/USD, here the trend indicators on D1 insist on the continuation of the sluggish-upward trend, which began in the last decade of April. 30% of experts agree with this point of view, believing that the pair must necessarily break the 1.3000 barrier. An alternative point of view is represented by 70% of analysts, 60% of trend indicators and 90% of oscillators on H4. All of them insist it is best to start selling this pair and suggest the nearest support is 1.2755. If we look at the medium-term forecast, the number of bear supporters among the analysts already exceeds 80%; 1.2100 is declared the main target.

- USD/JPY. After this pair’s impressive spurt upwards in the first half of last week and a sufficiently strong retracement in the second, the indicator readings turned out to be diametrically opposite: on D1, they recommend buying the pair, whilst on H4 they recommend selling. Analysts cannot come to any consensus either: one third of them predict the fall of the pair, another third its growth, and the remaining third foresee a sideways trend. At the same time, about 60% of experts believe that, leaning against the support in the 111.60-111.79 zone, the pair still should try to conquer the height of 115.50 in the next few weeks;

- The last pair of our review, as usual, is USD/CHF. Just like its chart for the past week ended up being similar to the USD/JPY chart, so are the forecasts of the indicators regarding its future: D1 advises to buy and H4 advises selling. As for the experts and graphical analysis, in their opinion, the pair will first have to drop to the 0.9940-0.9960 zone, then claw its way back to 0.9990, before finally returning to the 1.0050-1.0100 area once again.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  #210  
Old 21-05-2017, 15:13
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US Confidence TRUMPed: EUR/USD 1.16, US Markets Fall 10%

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 22 - 26 May 2017. But first, a few words about what happened last week:

Experts and technical analysis make predictions. Politicians shape reality and last week made this very clear. The last few days "presented" the world with several scandals related to US President Donald Trump. This was the firing of the FBI Director James Comey, the related controversy around the possible transfer of confidential information by Trump to the Russian diplomats, and subsequent rumours of Trump’s possible impeachment ...
All this resulted in a sharp weakening of the dollar and the fall of the US stock market. Suffice to say that, according to Bloomberg, over the past few days, businessmen from the 500 world richest people list became poorer by $ 35 billion.

- Huge losses were suffered by those who believed the dollar would rise and held short positions in the pair EUR/USD. Beginning on 11 May, the pair made a dizzying take-off of almost 375 points, all without any correction or rebound. It was only on Thursday 18 May, that it gave the "bears" the smallest reason for hope. However, it still proceeded to fly up 135 points and completed the five-day period at 1.1207;

- As for GBP/USD, this pair behaved much more calmly compared to the single European currency. The growth of the pair comprised only 160 points, which fully fits into its weekly framework. This growth had been predicted by 30% of experts and trend indicators, who insisted that it should overcome the 1.3000 level. This indeed ended up happening - the pair finished the week session at 1.3035.

- Whilst the British Isles have withstood the tsunami that came from the US and emerged composed, another set of islands far to the east – Japan - experienced a much larger wave: USD/JPY lost about 360 points. Even though at the very end of the week the bulls did manage to claw back about 100 points, the pair nevertheless rolled back into the zone where it was in late March and early April this year;

- It is common knowledge that USD/CHF often mirrors the fluctuations of EUR/USD. This happened this time as well, with the only difference that, unlike the European currency, the Swiss franc did not allow itself any corrections and continuously grew all week, having won about 285 points from the US dollar.

***
Forecast for the coming week:
There is a very high chance that in the coming week the movement of major currencies will be determined not only by technical analysis, but by the fundamental forces of global politics and economics. That's why this time we have focused on the forecasts given not by indicators and charts, but by experts from a number of leading world banks and brokerage companies:

- It is clear that 100% trend indicators show the growth of the EUR/USD pair. At the same time, one third of the oscillators on H4 and D1 signal that it is overbought. Approximately 70% analysts agree with them, expecting the pair to return to at least the level of 1.1080. As for the medium-term forecast, here 80% of analysts expect the pair to fall to the 1.0600-1.0670 zone.
Yet, there also exists is another point of view. For example, experts from the major French bank Credit Agricole believe that the euro is undervalued and has a high chance of growing until the quotes of EUR/USD rise to 1.15-1.16.
These analysts are echoed by specialists from Bridgewater Associates, one of the world’s largest hedge funds. They suggest that in the event of Donald Trump's impeachment, the probability of which is currently priced at 50%, the shares of leading US companies’ may fall by over 10%.

- As for the future of GBP/USD, the analysts' forecast looks like this: about 25% of experts believe the pair will be able to rise and gain a foothold above 1.3170. Most experts (75%), however, tend to the view that the pair should return to 1.2365-1.2570 over the next few weeks;

- USD/JPY. Regarding the pair’s behaviour next week, 80% of experts, along with graphic analysis on H4, expect this pair to descend to support in the 110.00 zone and further move in the side channel 110.00-111.60. However, if you extend the forecast by two or three months, the picture shifts completely to the opposite. On this time horizon, most analysts (65%) believe that the pair should return to an uptrend and once again rush to attack the height of 115.50;

- The last pair of our review is USD/CHF. Expert opinion here is divided as follows: 60% believe that the pair will continue to fall and reach the local bottom at 0.9650; the remaining 40% are guided by the fact that the pair is currently in the lower boundary of the medium-term down channel, which began in the early days of January 2016 and is clearly visible on the D1 and W1 charts. This gives a reason to expect the pair to turn and rebound to the middle line of the channel in the 0.9900 area, and then to its upper border at 1.0000. It should be noted that, in the medium term, about 70% experts agree with this view of events. However, as we wrote at the beginning of the forecast, much will depend on how tight the relationship between Donald Trump and the US Congress will actually prove to be.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  #211  
Old 27-05-2017, 19:51
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Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for May 29 - June 2, 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- As we wrote last time, whilst experts and technical analysis make predictions, it is politicians that make reality. The President of the United States Donald Trump spent the past week in Europe, causing the scandals associated with him to temporarily quiet down. This led to a lull in the financial markets, which neither the OPEC meeting on Thursday 25 May or, notably, the G7 leadership meeting could shake. EUR/USD spent the whole week in the 1.1160-1.1267 side corridor, as if waiting for new events, and finished the five-day period practically in the same place where it started: at 1.1185;

- As for GBP/USD, recall that the bulk of experts (75%) voted for this pair’s fall. They ended up being right. This forecast was of a medium-term nature, so the fall of GBP/USD by 265 points (from 1.3040 to 1.2775) can be considered only a forerunner of the inception of this trend;

- As for USD/JPY, this pair, after the shocks of the second fortnight of May, decided to take a breather, just like EUR/USD. It moved in a side channel the entire week, rotating around the 111.30 Pivot Point: the precise point where it completed the week's session;

- It is common knowledge that USD/CHF often mirrors the fluctuations of EUR/USD. This exact phenomenon was observed this time: its lateral trend was restricted to the range of 0.9690-0.9775, and the pair finished in the same place it started five days prior, at 0.9744.

***
Many analysts seem to think that during all of 2017 the foreign exchange market will be shaped by the unpredictability surrounding Donald Trump’s Presidency of the United States, rather than by any of the usual economic forces.
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from a number of banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts made based on a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- If one were to draw a conclusion from conducting graphical analysis on H4, one would say that in the coming days EUR/USD expects a decline to the support at 1.1075; if it breaks though this support it would fall into the 1.1000 zone. The main resistance in this scenario would be in the 1.1270 zone. 60% of experts agree with this forecast, as do the overwhelming majority of trend indicators and oscillators on H4.
At the same time, it should be noted that on Friday the data on the US labor market (NFP) will be published: the forecasts of the NFP, a very important driving force for dollar movements, suggests a negative outlook for the US dollar. Perhaps this is why about 40% of analysts predict the growth of the pair to 1.1400, after which the pair is nevertheless expected to decline.
It should be noted that, in the medium term, the number of supporters of the EUR/USD decline exceeds 80%, just as it had been previously;

- As for the future of GBP/USD, here, quite naturally, a clear majority of indicators point southwards. However, almost 80% of experts believe that, in the near future, the pair will not fall below 1.2755 and will continue to move in the rising channel that has been prevailing since mid-March, in an attempt to break through the resistance at 1.3050. As for the medium-term forecast, almost 70% of analysts now stand on the side of the bears, saying that, in the end, the pair will return to the 1.2 400-1.2615 side channel;

- USD/JPY. When giving a forecast for the coming week, experts are divided into two precisely equal-sized groups: 50% predict the fall of the pair and 50% predict its growth. Graphical analysis, meanwhile, suggests the following scenario for H4: first, a fall of the pair into the 110.85-111.00 area, and then its subsequent growth to the resistance at 111.90; in the event this resistance is broken, the pair should reach 112.50. On D1, the expected movements of the pair differ somewhat: the drop is expected to be to 110.00, whilst the subsequent rebound is thought to be to the resistance at 112.25. As for the medium-term outlook, here the benchmarks remain unchanged: almost 80% of analysts cast their votes for the growth of the pair to 114.50;

- The last pair of our review is USD/CHF. Even now about half of the oscillators on H4 indicate this pair is overbought and recommend opening long positions. As for the rest of indicators, they have taken a neutral position, believing that the pair will stay in the sideways trend within the 0.9690-0.9775 range for a while. Almost 70% of experts agree with these latter readings, believing that the pair will definitely test the lower limit of this channel at least once more. Its subsequent fate, in the opinion of most analysts and graphical analysis on H4, is a return into the 0.9890-0.9965 zone.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  #212  
Old 03-06-2017, 16:56
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Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 05 - 09 June 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- The previous forecast for EUR/USD turned out to be quite accurate when it came to trends, but the pair’s volatility turned out to be more modest than expected. Recall that 60% of experts predicted the pair’s decline to 1.1075; the pair did indeed start its descent on Monday but turned northwards when it was still 30 points away from target. This turn of events had been supported by 40% of analysts, who had expected that against the background of negative data for the dollar stemming from the NFP (survey of employment in the US outside the agricultural sector), the pair would soar to 1.1400 by the end of the week. The forecast came true only partially: the pair did go up, but ended the five-day period at 1.1280, without having reached 1.1300;

- GBP/USD. Recall that the forecast, supported by most experts (80%), said that the pair would rise after it reached support at 1.2755 in an attempt to break through the resistance at 1.3050. The bearish side of the forecast was true. The strength of the bulls, however, was clearly overrated. As expected, the pair found its minimum at 1.2765. When it pushed away from it, though, it rose only by 165 points to 1.2920. After this, the bulls’ strength dried up, which allowed the pair to slip into a sideways trend that anticipated the parliamentary elections on 8 June;

- USD/JPY. Here, the most accurate forecaster was graphical analysis. According to its readings, the pair was supposed to decline to 110.85 (it actually fell to 110.50), before growing to the resistance at 111.90 (it grew to 111.70). The pair reacted to the NFP data by having the dollar fall 140 points. As a result, it managed to return to the week's minimum in the 110.40 zone;

- Almost 70% of experts expected that USD/CHF would once again test the support of 0.9690. The test did happen and the pair managed to pass it, having mirrored the performance of EUR/USD. As a result, USD/CHF managed to break this support following the release of the NFP data, completing the week session at the level of 0.9625.

***
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from a number of banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. It is clear that, in the case of EUR/USD, the pair is not considered overbought: only 5% of oscillators on H4 and D1 say it is. Almost all indicators vote for the growth of the pair, naming the resistance level at 1400 and the May 2016 maximum of 1.1600 as the two main targets. And as for graphical analysis on H4, its readings suggest that in the next few days the pair may fall to 1.1100. Moreover, about 70% of experts insist on the pair's decline.
It should be noted that, in the medium term, the number of supporters of a EUR/USD decline has already reached 85%. This decline is expected to be into the 1.0900-1.1000 zone;

- As for the future of GBP/USD, here, unlike the previous pair, the indicators do not agree: about a third of them advise buying the pair, a third suggest selling, and the rest have simply taken a neutral position. Graphical analysis on D1 draws a side channel of 1.2770-1.3050 for the pair. What is obvious, however, is that none of these methods of technical analysis are able to factor in the occurrence of snap parliamentary elections in Britain on Thursday, 8 June. But it is these very elections that will determine how Brexit will pan out.
Judging by analysts' forecasts, they do not expect anything good for the pound. For starters, almost 90% of them expect this pair's decline in June, first to the support at 1.2765, and then even lower to 1.2600;

- USD/JPY. After the fall of this pair by 140 points on Friday, 2 June, about 20% of oscillators indicate it is oversold and advise opening long positions. Graphical analysis on H4 agrees with this. It does not exclude, though, that the pair may first descend to the support at 110.00; only after this would it allow the bulls to take the upper hand and push it to 111.00.
Giving the forecast for the next few weeks, about 85% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, expect the pair to grow to 112.00-114.30;

- The last pair of our review is USD/CHF. If you look at the readings of graphical analysis on H4, you will expect the pair’s dizzying take-off to the 1.0000 zone in the next few days. Whilst analysts generally agree with this, their forecast looks much calmer. Only 50% think the pair will return to 0.9760 in the next five days. Meanwhile, more than 90% of them believe that until the the pair will still be able to win back the May losses by mid-summer, returning to the landmark level of 1.0000.
In the case if the dollar, thanks to the Donald Trump’s administration, it remains under pressure: the pair may fall to the zone of 0.9540. The next support is at 0.9475.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  #213  
Old 11-06-2017, 10:40
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Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 12 - 16 June 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- Let us recall that in the forecasts regarding EUR/USD, most experts (70%), supported by graphical analysis on H4, spoke about the possible decline of the pair to 1.1100. The forecast proved correct, with the pair having lost about 120 points in the course of the week. However, it ended up being 65 points short of the named target, having only managed to reach 1.1165 before turning and arriving at 1.1195;

- It is clear that the behavior of GBP/USD last week was determined by the snap parliamentary elections in the UK, the outcome of which was quite unexpected and rather unpleasant for the governing Conservative Party. Note that the forecasts of financial analysts we published last week turned out to be much more accurate than any voting polls. Recall that our experts expected the fall of the British pound first to 1.2765 and then to the support at 1.2600. Allowing for standard error adjustments, this is exactly what ended up happening: on Friday, the pair reached the local bottom at 1.2633, after which it gained back just over 100 points. It finished the five-day period in the 1.2740 zone;

- USD/JPY. Last week, we were unable to give a clear-cut forecast for this pair. The scenario closest to reality turned out to be that described by graphical analysis, which talked about an initial fall of the pair to the support at 110.00 (in reality, this level ended up being 109.10), and then a reversal and subsequent growth to 111.00 (in reality, the growth was to 110.80). The net movement following the week’s activity is virtually zero: the pair finished almost at the same level, where it started;

- USD/CHF. Boiling down the results of technical and fundamental analysis last week, in general, the leanings of both indicators and analysts were bullish: everyone expected the pair to grow. The question was only about how much the pair would actually grow: whether sharply to the landmark level of 1.0000, or more modestly to 0.9760. The pair, as expected, departed northwards. However, it struggled to cover as little as 100 points, reaching only 0.9725 by Friday. After this, the strength of the bulls dried up, and the pair slipped to 0.9690.

***
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from a number of banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. On one hand, last week the pair reached a powerful support level of 1.1165, which was followed by a small rebound. This, however, begs the question of whether this rebound represents 1) a shift of a bearish trend to a bullish one, or 2) a mere correction after which the pair's downward movement will continue.
Both trend indicators and the oscillators on D1 have taken a neutral stance. As for the graphical analysis on H4, it insists the pair will rise and return to the 1.1240-1.1285 zone.
Experts have taken a diametrically opposite position: 70% of them, supported by graphical analysis on D1, believe that the pair will continue moving southwards, dropping first to the 1.1000-1.1100 zone and then to 1.0825.
And, of course, we mustn’t forget that on Wednesday, 14 June, the US Federal Reserve is expected to decide on the interest rate. The forecasts do not anticipate anything extraordinary to happen, but if a rate increase (or even a hint at a future increase) occurs, one should expect a stormy market reaction which may make the dollar seriously strengthen its position;

- As for the future of GBP/USD, technical analysis is still sidelined by politics and what will happen in the UK’s power structures in the coming days.
As for the graphical analysis on D1, it predicts an initial growth to 1.2980 and then a drop first to 1.2770 and then to 1.2650. Indicators and almost 85% of analysts agree with this, believing that by mid-summer the pair should drop to 1.2550;

- USD/JPY. This week, experts, graphical analysis and indicators demonstrate extraordinary unanimity. For the next few days, they expect a sideways trend in the 110.25-111.00 range. In the longer term, the pair is expected to rise to 112.00. It should be noted that in the medium term, more and more people are expecting the pair to grow. Currently, only 50% of analysts support a short term bullish scenario, whilst in the medium term this number already exceeds 75%.
An alternative, bearish point of view is represented by a mere 25% of experts who point to a local minimum in the 109.00 zone. Just one analyst believes the pair will fall to the April low at 108.00;

- The last pair of our review is USD/CHF. Graphical analysis shows the continuation of its movement in the descending channel that had started in the beginning of 2017. This channel is clearly visible on the D1 and W1 charts. According to this forecast, the pair has now launched off the lower border of the channel (0.9610) and started an upward movement to its upper limit (0.9910). The main resistance on this path is 0.9810. Almost 85% of analysts agree with this. However, as usual, the pair’s behavior is largely dependent on what happens with EUR/USD;

To conclude the forecast, we believe it worthwhile to recall that, in addition to the aforementioned US Fed rate decision on 14 June, similar decisions of the Bank of Switzerland and the Bank of England are expected on Thursday, 15 June and the Bank of Japan on Friday 16, June.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  #214  
Old 18-06-2017, 09:42
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Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 19 - 23 June 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- It had been clear that the main moves for EUR/USD would begin on Wednesday 14 June, when the US Federal Reserve would officially announce a rate increase. Everyone was ready for this. What no one was expecting though was the sharp drop of the dollar 5.5 hours before this event. Taking advantage of negative data on the US consumer market, large speculators pulled the pair up by 100 points. As a result, the Fed's statement could only return it to the original value of 1.1200. However, the "bears" did not calm down there, and on Friday the pair reached the local bottom at 1.1130, after which it again returned to where it started the week: namely in the 1.1200 zone;

- As for GBP/USD, as expected, technical analysis proved useless last week. The pair made variously directed fluctuations with an amplitude of 100-150 points for the whole week, which were caused both by political factors and by the rate decisions of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. Even though the latter left rates unchanged at 0.25%, it should be noted that instead of the expected seven members of the Monetary Policy Committee, only five voted for this decision. Three, wanting to stop the pound falling (or, perhaps, fearing the appearance of another George Soros), spoke in favor of raising the rate. We can infer from this that it is possible that the financial policy of Great Britain will face serious changes soon, with these changes being related primarily to the capital outflow and the terms for the country's withdrawal from the EU;

- USD/JPY. We can say, albeit rather liberally, that the forecast for this pair turned out to be correct. Recall that at the beginning of the week we expected the pair to move in a sideways trend in the range of 110.25-111.00 the range turned out to be 110.15-110.50). As a local minimum, experts had indicated 109.00 (the pair dropped to the level of 108.80), and the height of 112.00 was named as the maximum (the pair reached 111.40). As for the results of the week, it ended at the medium-term Pivot Point 110.85, along which the pair has been moving since mid-May;

- USD/CHF. As expected, the pair carefully copied all movements of the EUR/USD during the entire week, although it did this with less volatility. Thus, whilst the maximum fluctuation range of the euro/dollar was 165 points, for the Swiss franc it did not exceed 130.

***
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from several banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The only ones who took a neutral position this week were trend indicators: their votes on H4 and D1 were split approximately 50/50. As for the oscillators and graphical analysis, almost all of them point southwards. Almost 75% of experts agree with this view of events, considering that the pair will first fall to the support at 1.1100, and in the medium term even lower into the 1.0800-1.0900 zone. 1.1300 is indicated as the main resistance;

- As for the future of the GBP/USD, there is no unanimity among the indicators. H4, trend indicators, oscillators and graphical analysis all insist on buying the pair; D1 indicators suggest selling. In general, a fairly wide side corridor appears within the boundaries of 1.2580-1.2970. The picture among analysts, though, is quite different: the overwhelming majority of them (70%) have sided with the "bears", believing that the nearest target for the pair will be the 1.2600-1.2700 zone. The next target is 1.2400. The voices of the bulls’ supporters this week are very weak, and they all point to the May maximum at 1.3050;

- USD/JPY. 90% of experts believe that the uptrend for this pair is not yet complete, and it should necessarily try to break through resistance at 112.00. Graphical analysis on H4, as well as about 70% of indicators, agree with such developments. However, it should be noted that almost a quarter of oscillators indicate this pair is overbought. The main support in case of a fall is in the 109.00 zone;

- The last pair of our review is USD/CHF. Here, almost all indicators have turned green. Recall that, having fought off the lower border (0.9610) of the medium-term descending channel, which began at the very beginning of 2017, the pair started approaching the center. Now almost 80% of analysts and almost the same proportion of technical analysis instruments expect its further growth. The nearest resistance is 0.9810, the upper limit of the channel is 0.9910. However, almost 90% of experts do not exclude that the pair will not stop at this height and will soon overcome 1.0000.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  #215  
Old 24-06-2017, 17:59
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Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 26 - 30 June 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast: the holiday season is approaching, which may be the cause of the diminishing stream of significant economic events. This necessarily affects the volatility of the major currency pairs, which have come close to the targets indicated by analysts, without having successfully overcome them.

- Thus, last week, the maximum range of the EUR/USD fluctuations hardly exceeded 90 points. Recall that 75% of our experts had assumed that the pair should descend to the support at 1.1100. Allowing for the standard backlash, that was what happened: the week's low was fixed at 1.1118. However, the bears' strength then dried up, and the bulls returned the pair to the same place from where it had started the five-day period;

- Regarding the GBP/USD, recall that 70% of analysts had voted for the fall of the pair, whilst technical analysis had determined 1.2580 as the local minimum. This forecast turned out to be correct, and by the middle of the week the pair had actually fallen to 1.2587. Then, just as in the case of EUR/USD, the trend reversed and the pair retreated north, returning to Pivot Point of the last two weeks in the 1.2715 zone;

- The USD/JPY. The basic forecast, supported by 90% of experts, graphical analysis and 70% of indicators, had suggested that the pair would certainly try to break through the 112.00 resistance. This is what happened in reality: at the very beginning of the week’s session, the pair rushed upwards and, flying up 100 points, quickly reached 111.77. It then rolled back a bit, after which it tried to conquer the treasured height three times. However, after all these attempts were exhausted, the pair retreated downwards by 50 points and finished the week at 111.27;

- However, the forecasts for the future of USD/CHF have not been fulfilled. The pair’s uptrend was expected to continue, which would have carried it to at least the resistance of 0.9810. However, the pair stayed in the side channel of the last five weeks - 0.9620-0.9770 - and completed the week session near its central line in the 0.9695 zone.

***
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from a number of banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. As for indicators, about 90% of them look to the north on H4. But with the transition to a larger D1 time frame, the forecast changes to neutral. Moreover, almost a quarter of the oscillators already show that this pair is overbought, thereby recommends to sell. The graphical analysis on D1 and about 70% of analysts also agree with this, pointing to a possible fall of the pair first to 1.1100, and then even lower to the 1.0850-1.0960 area.
Speaking about the very near future, on Monday 26 June, the release of positive data on the US consumer market is expected, which may help strengthen the dollar. However, it may take the pair anything from one to several weeks to achieve these goals.
An alternative point of view sees the growth of the pair first to the resistance of 1.1285, and in the event of a breakthrough, even higher, bringing it to the 1.1400 region. However, in the medium term this forecast is supported by less than 10% of experts;

- As for the future of GBP/USD, here, too, most analysts are set to sell this pair. But a majority as obvious as the one for EUR/USD is nowhere to be seen: the vote is split 55% / 45%. Trend indicators and oscillators on D1 are on the side of the majority, whilst their "colleagues" on H4 as well as graphical analysis on both H4 and D1 side with the minority.
The nearest target for the bulls is 1.2815, the medium-term targets are 1.2920, 1.2975 and 1.3045. As for the bears, they will try to drop the pair first to the 1.2585-1.2630 region, before carrying it down by another ‘echelon’ to the 1.2365-1.2585 area;

- USD/JPY. The indicators on H4 are much more confident here than on D1. The former believe that the pair will once again try to take the height of 112.00, and this attempt should be crowned with success. Graphic analysis and about 60% of experts agree with this development. At the same time, graphical analysis on D1 indicates that after the pair reaches 112.15, it may roll back to 109.65-110.00;

- and the last pair of our review is the USD/CHF. If last week almost all the indicators were painted green, now many of them have changed to red, insisting that the pair will necessarily test the local minimum of 0.9610 again.
70% of experts, graphical analysis and about half of oscillators on D1 strongly disagree with this forecast. Based on the fact that the pair is oversold, they continue to insist on it moving to the upper boundary of the medium-term downtrend channel at 0.9910, which started early in 2017. The nearest resistance is 0.9810.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  #216  
Old 01-07-2017, 19:25
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Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 03 - 07 July 2017

To begin with, a few words about the forecast for the previous week, which was a week full of speeches by senior Central Bankers globally. Forex trends were influenced by the ECB head Mario Draghi, as well as his colleagues from the Bank of England Mark Carney and Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda. It goes without saying that the week would not be complete without the statements of the head of the US Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen.

- EUR / USD. The past week clearly showed that the opinion of the majority is not necessarily correct. Recall that, even though about 90% indicators on H4 voted for the growth of the pair, this forecast was supported by only about 10% of analysts. In their opinion, the pair had to first rise to the resistance at 1.1285, and then even higher to 1.1400. This is what happened - the pair was firmly entrenched in the zone 1.1390-1.1445 by the end of the five-day period;

- As for GBP/USD, 45% of analysts voted for its growth, which was supported by indicators on H4 and graphical analysis on H4 and D1. The bulls identified 1.2815, 1.2920, 1.2975 and 1.3045 as target levels. Backed by "hawkish" statements by Mark Carney about a possible increase in interest rates on the British pound, the pair took the first three heights with ease and came close to the fourth, finishing the week at 1.3025;

- USD/JPY. Here the main forecast was that the pair would once again try attempt to take the height of 112.00, and that this attempt would prove fruitful. This forecast turned out to be 100% true: the pair not only managed to reach this height, but also exceed it by almost 100 points. It then rolled back to finish at 112.40;

- The bears (30% of all forecasters), insisted that USD/CHF should test the local minimum of 0.9610 again. And indeed, after some hesitation, the pair went southwards, mirroring the movements of EUR/USD. On Wednesday, it reached this support, broke through it and spent the rest of the week in the side channel 0.9550-0.9600.

***
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from a number of banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. It should be noted that, because of a powerful breakthrough last week, the pair reached the upper boundary of the side channel it had been moving in for over two years, ever since the winter of 2015. Perhaps that is why the experts are rather confused, being divided into approximately three equal camps: 40% favor the pair’s growth, 35% support its fall, and the remaining believe in a sideways trend.
If we look at the graph of W1, we can see that the pair escaped the limits of the said channel for a short period of time on two occasions: in August 2015 and in May 2016, reaching 1.1715 in the first case, and 1.1615 in the latter. So, from the point of view of graphical analysis, there is still potential for growth of the pair. However, a whole quarter of the oscillators on D1 already signal that the pair is overbought.
Do not forget that this week we are expecting a sufficiently large amount of data on the US economy to be published, a lot of which, according to forecasts, is positive for the dollar. For example, it is expected that one of the most important indicators, NFP (the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector) may increase from 138K to 170-180K, which will provide significant support to the bears, and they will be able to drop the pair below the level of 1.1300;

- GBP/USD. Here, as in the case of the EUR/USD, both graphical analysis and the absolute majority of trend indicators and oscillators point northwards, believing that the pair should rise to at least 1.3120-1.3180, and then, possibly, by another 200 points. However, considering that the pair is now close to a very strong support/resistance level and is also approaching the 2017 high, a rebound is certainly plausible. In this case, the targets levels would be 1.2815 and 1.2760.
As for the opinion of analysts, 55% of them expect the pair to fall within the next few days, whilst 90% believe it will fall in the medium term;

- USD/JPY. Here, 40% of experts and almost 100% of indicators voted for the growth of the pair. The resistance levels are 113.10, 113.60 and 114.35. An alternative point of view is supported by 60% of analysts and only one indicator. The nearest support levels are 111.80, 110.80 and 110.25. Another possibility, suggested by graphical analysis on H4, has the pair grow to 113.10 and then fall to 112.00;

- The last pair of our review is USD/CHF. Next week, 75% of experts and a similar proportion of indicators expect the pair to fall to the zone of 1.9465-1.9520. The remaining analysts expect the pair to rise to 0.9650. And, as in the previous case, the alternative case is proposed by graphical analysis, which suggests a back and forth dancer in the lateral channel of 0.9520-0.9650. When it comes to the more distant future, almost 80% of experts expect the pair to return to the zone of 0.9860-1.010 in August.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  #217  
Old 09-07-2017, 13:54
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Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 10 - 14 July 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. As a result of a powerful breakthrough in late June, the pair reached the upper boundary of the side channel in which it has been moving for more than two years since the winter of 2015. It was this that gave reason to expect the pair to fall. Recall that this scenario was supported by 35% of experts and the quarter of the oscillators who signaled it was overbought. The level 1.1300 was named as the local minimum, and the pair reached it on Wednesday (1.1312). Having fulfilled this task ahead of schedule, it returned to the upper border of the channel and finished the week near 1.1400;

- As for GBP/USD, having approached the high of 2017, it reached critical values in late June, just like to EUR/USD. That is why 55% of analysts voted for its decline, identifying the support at 1.2815 as the target. As early as Monday the trend indeed made a reversal downwards, but the low point, which the pair managed to reach by Friday, was 50 points higher at 1.2865;

- USD/JPY. Here, 40% of experts and almost 100% of indicators voted for the growth of the pair. The level 114.35 was named as the top point. This forecast came true by 100%, and the pair climbed more than 200 points by the end of the week’s session, reaching 114.20;

- The most accurate forecast for USD/CHF was given by graphical analysis, which traced its back and forth motion in the lateral channel 0.9520-0.9650. That's exactly what happened: at first the pair rose to the upper border of the channel. Then, the bulls attempted to break it, but their strength was exhausted at 0.9685 and the pair turned southwards, ending the week near the strong support / resistance zone at 0.9635.

***
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from a number of banks and brokerages, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. This time, both experts and technical analysis voted overwhelmingly for the growth of the pair. 70% of analysts, graphical analysis on H4 and almost 100% of indicators agree with this scenario. In their opinion, the pair will try to break through the horizon 1.1500 and, if this attempt proves successful, rush even higher to the 2016 high at 1.1620.
The alternative forecast can hardly be called alternative, since it's not about the fall of the pair, but about its lateral movement within the boundaries of 1.1300-1.1445. The remaining 30% of experts, graphical analysis on D1 and only one oscillator, indicating that the pair is slightly overbought, agree with this.
It should also be noted that, despite the positive mood for the coming days, the medium-term outlook for the pair remains negative. It is supported by almost 70% of analysts. In addition, we should pay attention to the speech of the head of the Fed, Janet Yellen on Thursday, July 13, and data on the US consumer market, which are expected to be published on Friday July 14.

- GBP/USD. Here, unlike the case of EUR/USD, the indicators are divided almost equally. However, both trend indicators and oscillators on D1 show a slight bullish advantage. 65% of analysts also look northwards, supported by graphical analysis. They all point to the level of 1.3050 as a target. The next resistance is 50 points higher at 1.3100. Only 35% of experts side with the bears. However, if we talk about the forecast for the second half of the summer, almost 70% of these experts think that the pair should return to the zone of 1.2500;

- USD/JPY. Recall that the pair has been trying to reach the May maximum at level 1.1435 for more than a month now. And it is possible that this week it will once again attempt to rise to said level and even go beyond it to 1.1500. 60% of experts and most of the indicators agree with this scenario.
The remaining part of the analysts, as well as graphical analysis on H4, believe that the forces of the bulls have already dried up, and the pair is expected to sharply descend to the zone of 111.00-111.75. A third of the oscillators supports this scenario, signaling the pair is overbought.
As for the medium-term perspective, more than 80% of experts expect a fall;

- the last pair of our review is USD/CHF. Here, the opinion of analysts is also radically changing when moving from the weekly forecast to the medium-term forecast. For the next week, 100% (!) of experts speak about the descent of the pair to 0.9520-0.9560. However, once that happens, 60% of them maintain that the pair should rise above the horizon of 0.9800.
A slightly different scenario is offered by graphical analysis on D1: it suggests an initial growth of the pair to 0.9735, and then its fall into the 0.9480-0.9520 zone.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  #218  
Old 16-07-2017, 10:05
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Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 17 - 21 July 2017

To begin with, a few words about the forecast for the previous week, which ended up being almost 100% correct for EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY.

- Recall that the overwhelming majority (70%) of experts and almost 100% of indicators voted for the growth of the EUR/USD. 1.1500 was named the main target. As for the remaining analysts, they thought lateral movement would dominate last week.
The pair worked on both scenarios. First, as predicted, leaning on the support of 1.1380, it rushed up and reached the height of 1.1490 on Wednesday. Then it rolled back to the support zone, turned around and rushed up again, finishing the five-day period in the zone of 1.1470;

- As for GBP/USD, the odds here, as in the case of the EUR/USD, were on the bulls' side. 65% of analysts, graphical analysis, as well as most indicators on D1, had voted for the movement of the pair to the north. In their opinion, the pair was supposed first to rise to the resistance at 1.3050, and then to the height of 1.3100, which was recorded at the very end of the weekly trading session;

- USD/JPY. The pair has been striving north for more than a month, trying to reach the May high at 1.1435. Most experts believed that last week it would manage to do it. At the same time, a third of the indicators signaled that the bulls' strength had already dried up, and this gave grounds to talk about an imminent fall of the pair.
That's exactly what happened: having hardly reached 1.1450, the pair immediately turned and sharply collapsed, groping the local bottom at 112.25 on Friday;

- The most accurate forecast for USD/CHF was given by graphical analysis, which was drawing a back-and-forth movement in the side channel for the second week in a row. However, the range of oscillations of the pair turned out to be narrower than expected (0.9520-0.9735), and it stayed within 0.9600-0.9700.

***
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from a number of banks and brokerages, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Almost 100% of indicators believe that the upward trend of the pair will continue. And as for the experts, only 55% of them are bullish. This is because the pair has reached the upper boundary of its long-term lateral channel, where it has been moving since January 2015. The W1 chart clearly shows that if the pair breaks through the 1.1500 level, its next target will be the 2016 high: 1.1615.
An alternative scenario involves the pair being pulled downwards. In this case, 1.1380 and 1.1300 will be support levels. 45% of analysts and graphical analysis on D1 agree with this version.
In the coming week, we expect the publication of data on euro area consumer market on Monday, July 17 and the ECB's decision on the interest rate on Thursday, July 20. However, these events will likely not have a strong impact on the EUR/USD exchange rate.
As for the medium-term outlook, it remains negative, and 75% of analysts expect the pair to fall to 1.1100-1.1200 during the summer;

- GBP/USD. Graphical analysis on H4, 100% of trend indicators, 2/3 oscillators and only 1/3 of analysts believe that the pair still has enough strength to rise to 1.3150 or even 1.3200. On the other hand, an overwhelming majority of experts, supported by one third of oscillators, are confident that the upward impulse of the pair has dried up: judging by this view, the pair can now be expected to decline first to 1.3000, and then 175-200 points lower. After that, according to the readings of graphical analysis on D1, the pair will move in the lateral channel 1.2800-1.3025 for a month;

- If, speaking of the future of USD/JPY, most of the indicators on H4 look to the south, their eyes turn westwards on D1. In other words, they have taken a neutral position. But almost 70% of experts are sure that the pair will try to re-test the level of 114.50 and, in case of its breakthrough, will rush to this February high at the height of 115.50.
As for the small umber of supporters of the pair's decline, they think it can drop to the zone of 110.50-111.00.
The decision of the Bank of Japan on interest rates, which will be published on July 20, is unlikely to surprise the financial markets, and they are likely to react to it quite calmly;

- and the last pair of our review is USD/CHF. In this case, indicators do not provide any clear forecast. However, most analysts (85%) still expect the pair to fall at least to the zone of 0.9500-0.9550.
A slightly different scenario is offered by graphical analysis on D1: an initial growth of the pair to the resistance of 0.9700-0.9725, and only then its fall into the designated zone.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  #219  
Old 23-07-2017, 14:23
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Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 24 - 28 July 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- The main view on EUR/USD was that it would break through1.1500 and grow to the 2016 high at 1.1615. The next target would then be the maximum of August 2015: 1.1715. The main impetus for the pair's upswing was given by the head of the ECB Mario Draghi, who said on Thursday that the euro zone stimulus program (QE) will not end and will remain unchanged. Against the background of these comments, the euro's exchange rate against the dollar jumped by 0.5%, and the pair reached the height of 1.1680 by the end of the week session;

- As for GBP/USD, the forecast ended up being 100%. Accurate. Recall that the vast majority of experts, supported by one third of oscillators, were confident that the upward impulse of the pair had dried up, and it was expected to decline first to 1.3000, and then even lower. As a result, the pair dropped to 1.2930, then rebounded and finished the week at the level of 1.2994;

- USD/JPY. Indicators on H4 and only one third of analysts spoke about the fall of this pair last week. But it was them who turned out to be right, having predicted its decline to the level of 111.00, which became the week’s minimum.

- Predicting the future of USD/CHF, the majority of analysts (85%) insisted on it falling to at least 0.9500-0.9550, and possibly even lower. The pair obediently did so, having lost 190 points in a week and started touching a local bottom at 0.9437.

***
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from a number of banks and brokerages, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. After an impressive upwards spurt last week, the future of this pair now looks quite ambiguous. 55% of experts, 100% of trend indicators and graphical analysis indicate the uptrend will continue. The August 2015 maximum - 1.1715 - is named as the nearest resistance, the next target is 100 points higher.
An alternative point of view is represented by 45% of experts and more than a third of oscillators on H4 and D1, indicating the pair is overbought. In their opinion, the pair should return to 1.1480-1.1580. The following events can also contribute to the strengthening of the dollar: on July 26, the Fed will provide commentary on a possible increase in interest rates before the end of the year, and on July 28 we will see the publication of annual data on US GDP;

- GBP/USD. If we try to bring together the opinions of experts and technical analysis, we can talk about the prevalence of bullish sentiment and the movement of this pair in the 1.2950-1.3120 channel. In figures, it looks like this: 50% of analysts are for the growth of the pair, the other 50% are for its fall. Trend indicators: 70% look to the north, 30% to the south. Oscillators: one third is colored red, one third is green, and the rest are neutral. As for graphical analysis, on D1 it says that, starting from the support at 1.2950, the pair will try to gain a foothold above the level of 1.3100 and, if successful, rush to the resistance at 1.3280. Otherwise, it is expected to return to around 1.2950;

- The medium-term outlook for USD/JPY indicates that it should return to the height of 114.50. But it's too early to talk about the reversal of the trend, and the pair will continue to descend in the coming week. 65% of analysts agree with this point of view, as well as about 80% of indicators. At the same time, a quarter of the oscillators are already signaling that the pair is oversold. The main support levels are 110.85, 110.25 and 109.00;

- The last pair of our review is USD/CHF. 100% of experts, 100% of trend indicators, 75% of oscillators and graphical analysis on H4 and D1 expect the continuation of the downtrend and fall of the pair first to 0.9400, and then 100 points lower. However, one should bear in mind that, as in the case of USD/JPY, a quarter of the oscillators already indicate the pair is oversold, so it is impossible to exclude the correction to the north. The nearest resistance is at the level of 0.9525, the next one is 0.9560.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  #220  
Old 30-07-2017, 11:10
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Forex forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for July 31 - August 4, 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. The upward trend of the pair, which began on New Year's Eve 2017 and which marks a steady fall in the US dollar, was continued last week. Thanks to growing GDP, the US currency had a chance, at least temporarily, to change the situation. However, the growth of the German consumer market turned out to be more impressive, and the pair went up by 100 points, ending the five-day period at 1.1750. Thus, our basic forecast, supported by 55% of experts, graphical analysis and 100% of trend indicators, was justified;
- The US dollar was also falling against the British currency. Our forecast for the GBP/USD spoke of the predominance of bullish sentiment and the desire of the pair to gain a foothold above the level of 1.3100. 1.3120 was identified as a local target and the pair completed the weekly session just above it;

- USD/JPY. Most analysts (65%) and about 80% of the indicators said that the pair would continue to move down. However, what happened, can hardly be called a proper fall: it fell by only 40 points as the result of the week. And, before that, in the first half of the week the pair managed to rise by 120 points, due to which the question of overselling, which was signaled by the oscillators, was closed;

- Practice shows that the USD/CHF rate very often mirrors the movement of the EUR/USD. Last week, though, the opposite happened. At a time when the dollar was falling against other major currencies, it rose sharply (by more than 250 points) against the Swiss franc. The reason was the stop orders issued by major Japanese traders and investment banks, which made the pair return to a strong medium-term support/resistance level in the 0.9700 area;

***
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from a number of banks and brokerages, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Last week, the pair exceeded the August 2015 maximum,1.1715, and rushed to the next target: the highest point of all 2015,1.1870. 60% of experts agree that it will be able to reach it in the near future. The rest believe that the pair is facing a downwards correction: first to 1.1615, and then to the support line of the upward four-month channel near 1.1570. Apart from the experts, graphical analysis on H4 and D1 and a quarter of oscillators agree with such a development of events, with the latter signaling that the pair is overbought.
It should be noted that 80% of experts believe the pair will fall to 1.1112-1.1300 in the medium term;

- GBP/USD. About 70% of analysts, supported by 100% of trend indicators and the vast majority of oscillators, believe that the upward momentum for this pair has not yet dried up, and it will strive to reach the upper limit of last year's summer corridor at 1.3370. The nearest resistance in the zone is 1.3200-1.3225. Support is at the level of 1.3050.
The remaining 30% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on H4 and D1 and just one oscillator, believe that the pair will not be able to rise above the 1.3160 horizon, and will return first to support 1.3050, and then, possibly, drop another 50 points.
The medium-term forecast for the pair remains the same – southwards movement to 1.2700-1.2800. 75% of analysts agree with this development of events;

- 65% of experts expect that USD/JPY should still break through the support of 110.60 and fall into the 109.00-110.60 range. However, 20% of the oscillators once again signal that the pair is oversold, and, together with 35% of analysts, talk about a possible return to 112.20. The next resistance is 112.85, then 113.55;

- USD/CHF. After an impressive upwards spurt last week, the opinions of experts are divided almost evenly: 5% side with bears, 45% are on the side of bulls. As for indicators, naturally, the vast majority of them are colored green. However, even here 20% of the oscillators are in the oversold zone. Graphical analysis offers a compromise option at D1: first a decline to the zone of 0.9550, and then growth to 0.9700, and finally 0.9770.

- Summarizing the weekly review, it is worth recalling that the upcoming week will be filled with many events that traditionally attract the attention of currency traders. The beginning of the week from Monday to Wednesday will be devoted, mainly, to the data from the Eurozone. Thursday, 3rd August will be marked by a meeting of the Bank of England, and here the distribution of votes regarding interest rate changes will be of great interest. Recall that the number of supporters of rate increases is growing, and therefore certain surprises cannot be ruled out. And finally, at the very end of the week - on Friday, 4 August - US employment data (NFP) will be published, and judging by the forecasts (187K compared to 222K in June), they could apply negative pressure to the dollar.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd, #gbpusd, #usdjpy, # forex, # forex_forecast, #forex signals, # binary_options
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